Aggregator

MD 1620 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 533... FOR PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL ND
Mesoscale Discussion 1620 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Areas affected...parts of western/central ND Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 533... Valid 150040Z - 150215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 533 continues. SUMMARY...An increasing threat for significant severe hail from 2-3 inches in diameter should exist through about 10 PM CDT across parts of western to central North Dakota. DISCUSSION...Two areas of ongoing convection should intensify during the next couple hours across parts of western and central ND. One corridor is favored across north-central ND where an arc of supercells are ongoing along and behind a southward-sagging front that is being augmented by leading convective outflow. Higher-based cells along the ND/MT border area have been slower to intensify, but should do so as they ingest an increasingly buoyant air mass downstream in northwest ND. MBX VWP data has sampled robust mid to upper-level speed shear above 700 mb and confirmed by the 00Z BIS sounding, yielding effective bulk values around 50 kts. This type of wind profile with substantial straight-line elongation will support splitting, discrete supercells and potential for significant severe hail as activity spreads southeastward this evening. ..Grams.. 07/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... LAT...LON 48930082 48409984 47929931 47649912 47339924 47020040 47070222 47610348 48110378 48570353 48930082 Read more

WW 0533 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 533 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE SDY TO 60 N ISN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1620. ..GRAMS..07/15/24 ATTN...WFO...GGW...FGF...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 533 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC005-007-009-013-019-023-025-033-049-053-055-057-061-065-069- 071-075-079-083-095-101-103-105-150240- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENSON BILLINGS BOTTINEAU BURKE CAVALIER DIVIDE DUNN GOLDEN VALLEY MCHENRY MCKENZIE MCLEAN MERCER MOUNTRAIL OLIVER PIERCE RAMSEY RENVILLE ROLETTE SHERIDAN TOWNER WARD WELLS WILLIAMS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are still expected from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley this evening through tonight. ...North Dakota... Convection migrating into northwest ND continues to gradually intensify as it moves into a more buoyant air mass (depicted well by the 00 UTC BIS RAOB). Recent forecast guidance has captured this trend well and suggests that upscale growth into a more organized cluster/line is probable later tonight along a diffuse baroclinic zone draped across central to southeast ND with an attendant severe wind threat, including the potential for 75+ mph gusts. Prior to upscale growth, discrete supercells across northwest/north-central ND will likely pose a significant hail threat given ample buoyancy and elongated hodographs featuring 50 knots of effective bulk shear. See MCD #1620 for additional short-term details. ...Midwest... Across the Midwest, mostly clear skies and southwesterly low-level flow has allowed for some air mass recovery from eastern IL into central IN in the wake of a prior MCS. A developing thunderstorm cluster across northern IL/southern WI is expected to grow upscale and propagate to the southeast overnight, and should primarily pose a severe wind risk (see MCD #1621 for short-term details). The anticipated MCS should weaken as it traverses central IN and migrates into the cold pool of an earlier MCS across OH. ..Moore.. 07/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are still expected from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley this evening through tonight. ...North Dakota... Convection migrating into northwest ND continues to gradually intensify as it moves into a more buoyant air mass (depicted well by the 00 UTC BIS RAOB). Recent forecast guidance has captured this trend well and suggests that upscale growth into a more organized cluster/line is probable later tonight along a diffuse baroclinic zone draped across central to southeast ND with an attendant severe wind threat, including the potential for 75+ mph gusts. Prior to upscale growth, discrete supercells across northwest/north-central ND will likely pose a significant hail threat given ample buoyancy and elongated hodographs featuring 50 knots of effective bulk shear. See MCD #1620 for additional short-term details. ...Midwest... Across the Midwest, mostly clear skies and southwesterly low-level flow has allowed for some air mass recovery from eastern IL into central IN in the wake of a prior MCS. A developing thunderstorm cluster across northern IL/southern WI is expected to grow upscale and propagate to the southeast overnight, and should primarily pose a severe wind risk (see MCD #1621 for short-term details). The anticipated MCS should weaken as it traverses central IN and migrates into the cold pool of an earlier MCS across OH. ..Moore.. 07/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are still expected from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley this evening through tonight. ...North Dakota... Convection migrating into northwest ND continues to gradually intensify as it moves into a more buoyant air mass (depicted well by the 00 UTC BIS RAOB). Recent forecast guidance has captured this trend well and suggests that upscale growth into a more organized cluster/line is probable later tonight along a diffuse baroclinic zone draped across central to southeast ND with an attendant severe wind threat, including the potential for 75+ mph gusts. Prior to upscale growth, discrete supercells across northwest/north-central ND will likely pose a significant hail threat given ample buoyancy and elongated hodographs featuring 50 knots of effective bulk shear. See MCD #1620 for additional short-term details. ...Midwest... Across the Midwest, mostly clear skies and southwesterly low-level flow has allowed for some air mass recovery from eastern IL into central IN in the wake of a prior MCS. A developing thunderstorm cluster across northern IL/southern WI is expected to grow upscale and propagate to the southeast overnight, and should primarily pose a severe wind risk (see MCD #1621 for short-term details). The anticipated MCS should weaken as it traverses central IN and migrates into the cold pool of an earlier MCS across OH. ..Moore.. 07/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are still expected from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley this evening through tonight. ...North Dakota... Convection migrating into northwest ND continues to gradually intensify as it moves into a more buoyant air mass (depicted well by the 00 UTC BIS RAOB). Recent forecast guidance has captured this trend well and suggests that upscale growth into a more organized cluster/line is probable later tonight along a diffuse baroclinic zone draped across central to southeast ND with an attendant severe wind threat, including the potential for 75+ mph gusts. Prior to upscale growth, discrete supercells across northwest/north-central ND will likely pose a significant hail threat given ample buoyancy and elongated hodographs featuring 50 knots of effective bulk shear. See MCD #1620 for additional short-term details. ...Midwest... Across the Midwest, mostly clear skies and southwesterly low-level flow has allowed for some air mass recovery from eastern IL into central IN in the wake of a prior MCS. A developing thunderstorm cluster across northern IL/southern WI is expected to grow upscale and propagate to the southeast overnight, and should primarily pose a severe wind risk (see MCD #1621 for short-term details). The anticipated MCS should weaken as it traverses central IN and migrates into the cold pool of an earlier MCS across OH. ..Moore.. 07/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are still expected from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley this evening through tonight. ...North Dakota... Convection migrating into northwest ND continues to gradually intensify as it moves into a more buoyant air mass (depicted well by the 00 UTC BIS RAOB). Recent forecast guidance has captured this trend well and suggests that upscale growth into a more organized cluster/line is probable later tonight along a diffuse baroclinic zone draped across central to southeast ND with an attendant severe wind threat, including the potential for 75+ mph gusts. Prior to upscale growth, discrete supercells across northwest/north-central ND will likely pose a significant hail threat given ample buoyancy and elongated hodographs featuring 50 knots of effective bulk shear. See MCD #1620 for additional short-term details. ...Midwest... Across the Midwest, mostly clear skies and southwesterly low-level flow has allowed for some air mass recovery from eastern IL into central IN in the wake of a prior MCS. A developing thunderstorm cluster across northern IL/southern WI is expected to grow upscale and propagate to the southeast overnight, and should primarily pose a severe wind risk (see MCD #1621 for short-term details). The anticipated MCS should weaken as it traverses central IN and migrates into the cold pool of an earlier MCS across OH. ..Moore.. 07/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are still expected from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley this evening through tonight. ...North Dakota... Convection migrating into northwest ND continues to gradually intensify as it moves into a more buoyant air mass (depicted well by the 00 UTC BIS RAOB). Recent forecast guidance has captured this trend well and suggests that upscale growth into a more organized cluster/line is probable later tonight along a diffuse baroclinic zone draped across central to southeast ND with an attendant severe wind threat, including the potential for 75+ mph gusts. Prior to upscale growth, discrete supercells across northwest/north-central ND will likely pose a significant hail threat given ample buoyancy and elongated hodographs featuring 50 knots of effective bulk shear. See MCD #1620 for additional short-term details. ...Midwest... Across the Midwest, mostly clear skies and southwesterly low-level flow has allowed for some air mass recovery from eastern IL into central IN in the wake of a prior MCS. A developing thunderstorm cluster across northern IL/southern WI is expected to grow upscale and propagate to the southeast overnight, and should primarily pose a severe wind risk (see MCD #1621 for short-term details). The anticipated MCS should weaken as it traverses central IN and migrates into the cold pool of an earlier MCS across OH. ..Moore.. 07/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are still expected from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley this evening through tonight. ...North Dakota... Convection migrating into northwest ND continues to gradually intensify as it moves into a more buoyant air mass (depicted well by the 00 UTC BIS RAOB). Recent forecast guidance has captured this trend well and suggests that upscale growth into a more organized cluster/line is probable later tonight along a diffuse baroclinic zone draped across central to southeast ND with an attendant severe wind threat, including the potential for 75+ mph gusts. Prior to upscale growth, discrete supercells across northwest/north-central ND will likely pose a significant hail threat given ample buoyancy and elongated hodographs featuring 50 knots of effective bulk shear. See MCD #1620 for additional short-term details. ...Midwest... Across the Midwest, mostly clear skies and southwesterly low-level flow has allowed for some air mass recovery from eastern IL into central IN in the wake of a prior MCS. A developing thunderstorm cluster across northern IL/southern WI is expected to grow upscale and propagate to the southeast overnight, and should primarily pose a severe wind risk (see MCD #1621 for short-term details). The anticipated MCS should weaken as it traverses central IN and migrates into the cold pool of an earlier MCS across OH. ..Moore.. 07/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are still expected from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley this evening through tonight. ...North Dakota... Convection migrating into northwest ND continues to gradually intensify as it moves into a more buoyant air mass (depicted well by the 00 UTC BIS RAOB). Recent forecast guidance has captured this trend well and suggests that upscale growth into a more organized cluster/line is probable later tonight along a diffuse baroclinic zone draped across central to southeast ND with an attendant severe wind threat, including the potential for 75+ mph gusts. Prior to upscale growth, discrete supercells across northwest/north-central ND will likely pose a significant hail threat given ample buoyancy and elongated hodographs featuring 50 knots of effective bulk shear. See MCD #1620 for additional short-term details. ...Midwest... Across the Midwest, mostly clear skies and southwesterly low-level flow has allowed for some air mass recovery from eastern IL into central IN in the wake of a prior MCS. A developing thunderstorm cluster across northern IL/southern WI is expected to grow upscale and propagate to the southeast overnight, and should primarily pose a severe wind risk (see MCD #1621 for short-term details). The anticipated MCS should weaken as it traverses central IN and migrates into the cold pool of an earlier MCS across OH. ..Moore.. 07/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are still expected from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley this evening through tonight. ...North Dakota... Convection migrating into northwest ND continues to gradually intensify as it moves into a more buoyant air mass (depicted well by the 00 UTC BIS RAOB). Recent forecast guidance has captured this trend well and suggests that upscale growth into a more organized cluster/line is probable later tonight along a diffuse baroclinic zone draped across central to southeast ND with an attendant severe wind threat, including the potential for 75+ mph gusts. Prior to upscale growth, discrete supercells across northwest/north-central ND will likely pose a significant hail threat given ample buoyancy and elongated hodographs featuring 50 knots of effective bulk shear. See MCD #1620 for additional short-term details. ...Midwest... Across the Midwest, mostly clear skies and southwesterly low-level flow has allowed for some air mass recovery from eastern IL into central IN in the wake of a prior MCS. A developing thunderstorm cluster across northern IL/southern WI is expected to grow upscale and propagate to the southeast overnight, and should primarily pose a severe wind risk (see MCD #1621 for short-term details). The anticipated MCS should weaken as it traverses central IN and migrates into the cold pool of an earlier MCS across OH. ..Moore.. 07/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are still expected from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley this evening through tonight. ...North Dakota... Convection migrating into northwest ND continues to gradually intensify as it moves into a more buoyant air mass (depicted well by the 00 UTC BIS RAOB). Recent forecast guidance has captured this trend well and suggests that upscale growth into a more organized cluster/line is probable later tonight along a diffuse baroclinic zone draped across central to southeast ND with an attendant severe wind threat, including the potential for 75+ mph gusts. Prior to upscale growth, discrete supercells across northwest/north-central ND will likely pose a significant hail threat given ample buoyancy and elongated hodographs featuring 50 knots of effective bulk shear. See MCD #1620 for additional short-term details. ...Midwest... Across the Midwest, mostly clear skies and southwesterly low-level flow has allowed for some air mass recovery from eastern IL into central IN in the wake of a prior MCS. A developing thunderstorm cluster across northern IL/southern WI is expected to grow upscale and propagate to the southeast overnight, and should primarily pose a severe wind risk (see MCD #1621 for short-term details). The anticipated MCS should weaken as it traverses central IN and migrates into the cold pool of an earlier MCS across OH. ..Moore.. 07/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are still expected from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley this evening through tonight. ...North Dakota... Convection migrating into northwest ND continues to gradually intensify as it moves into a more buoyant air mass (depicted well by the 00 UTC BIS RAOB). Recent forecast guidance has captured this trend well and suggests that upscale growth into a more organized cluster/line is probable later tonight along a diffuse baroclinic zone draped across central to southeast ND with an attendant severe wind threat, including the potential for 75+ mph gusts. Prior to upscale growth, discrete supercells across northwest/north-central ND will likely pose a significant hail threat given ample buoyancy and elongated hodographs featuring 50 knots of effective bulk shear. See MCD #1620 for additional short-term details. ...Midwest... Across the Midwest, mostly clear skies and southwesterly low-level flow has allowed for some air mass recovery from eastern IL into central IN in the wake of a prior MCS. A developing thunderstorm cluster across northern IL/southern WI is expected to grow upscale and propagate to the southeast overnight, and should primarily pose a severe wind risk (see MCD #1621 for short-term details). The anticipated MCS should weaken as it traverses central IN and migrates into the cold pool of an earlier MCS across OH. ..Moore.. 07/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are still expected from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley this evening through tonight. ...North Dakota... Convection migrating into northwest ND continues to gradually intensify as it moves into a more buoyant air mass (depicted well by the 00 UTC BIS RAOB). Recent forecast guidance has captured this trend well and suggests that upscale growth into a more organized cluster/line is probable later tonight along a diffuse baroclinic zone draped across central to southeast ND with an attendant severe wind threat, including the potential for 75+ mph gusts. Prior to upscale growth, discrete supercells across northwest/north-central ND will likely pose a significant hail threat given ample buoyancy and elongated hodographs featuring 50 knots of effective bulk shear. See MCD #1620 for additional short-term details. ...Midwest... Across the Midwest, mostly clear skies and southwesterly low-level flow has allowed for some air mass recovery from eastern IL into central IN in the wake of a prior MCS. A developing thunderstorm cluster across northern IL/southern WI is expected to grow upscale and propagate to the southeast overnight, and should primarily pose a severe wind risk (see MCD #1621 for short-term details). The anticipated MCS should weaken as it traverses central IN and migrates into the cold pool of an earlier MCS across OH. ..Moore.. 07/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are still expected from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley this evening through tonight. ...North Dakota... Convection migrating into northwest ND continues to gradually intensify as it moves into a more buoyant air mass (depicted well by the 00 UTC BIS RAOB). Recent forecast guidance has captured this trend well and suggests that upscale growth into a more organized cluster/line is probable later tonight along a diffuse baroclinic zone draped across central to southeast ND with an attendant severe wind threat, including the potential for 75+ mph gusts. Prior to upscale growth, discrete supercells across northwest/north-central ND will likely pose a significant hail threat given ample buoyancy and elongated hodographs featuring 50 knots of effective bulk shear. See MCD #1620 for additional short-term details. ...Midwest... Across the Midwest, mostly clear skies and southwesterly low-level flow has allowed for some air mass recovery from eastern IL into central IN in the wake of a prior MCS. A developing thunderstorm cluster across northern IL/southern WI is expected to grow upscale and propagate to the southeast overnight, and should primarily pose a severe wind risk (see MCD #1621 for short-term details). The anticipated MCS should weaken as it traverses central IN and migrates into the cold pool of an earlier MCS across OH. ..Moore.. 07/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are still expected from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley this evening through tonight. ...North Dakota... Convection migrating into northwest ND continues to gradually intensify as it moves into a more buoyant air mass (depicted well by the 00 UTC BIS RAOB). Recent forecast guidance has captured this trend well and suggests that upscale growth into a more organized cluster/line is probable later tonight along a diffuse baroclinic zone draped across central to southeast ND with an attendant severe wind threat, including the potential for 75+ mph gusts. Prior to upscale growth, discrete supercells across northwest/north-central ND will likely pose a significant hail threat given ample buoyancy and elongated hodographs featuring 50 knots of effective bulk shear. See MCD #1620 for additional short-term details. ...Midwest... Across the Midwest, mostly clear skies and southwesterly low-level flow has allowed for some air mass recovery from eastern IL into central IN in the wake of a prior MCS. A developing thunderstorm cluster across northern IL/southern WI is expected to grow upscale and propagate to the southeast overnight, and should primarily pose a severe wind risk (see MCD #1621 for short-term details). The anticipated MCS should weaken as it traverses central IN and migrates into the cold pool of an earlier MCS across OH. ..Moore.. 07/15/2024 Read more

WW 0534 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 534 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW MCW TO 45 ENE ALO TO 25 NNW DBQ TO 20 SE OSH. ..LYONS..07/15/24 ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...ARX...LOT...ILX...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 534 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC007-011-015-031-037-043-063-073-085-089-091-093-097-099-103- 105-111-123-141-155-161-175-177-195-197-201-150140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE BUREAU CARROLL COOK DE KALB DUPAGE GRUNDY HENRY JO DAVIESS KANE KANKAKEE KENDALL LAKE LA SALLE LEE LIVINGSTON MCHENRY MARSHALL OGLE PUTNAM ROCK ISLAND STARK STEPHENSON WHITESIDE WILL WINNEBAGO INC089-150140- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LAKE Read more

WW 0533 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 533 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N BHK TO 80 NNW ISN. ..LYONS..07/15/24 ATTN...WFO...GGW...FGF...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 533 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC005-007-009-013-019-023-025-033-049-053-055-057-061-065-069- 071-075-079-083-095-101-103-105-150140- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENSON BILLINGS BOTTINEAU BURKE CAVALIER DIVIDE DUNN GOLDEN VALLEY MCHENRY MCKENZIE MCLEAN MERCER MOUNTRAIL OLIVER PIERCE RAMSEY RENVILLE ROLETTE SHERIDAN TOWNER WARD WELLS WILLIAMS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1619 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN OHIO INTO FAR WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND PENNSYLVANIA AND FAR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 1619 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0529 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Areas affected...Eastern Ohio into far western West Virginia and Pennsylvania and far northeast Kentucky Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 142229Z - 150030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Convection within a decaying MCS across OH has shown signs of re-intensification over the past hour, and a damaging wind threat may persist for another hour or two. However, this trend is not expected to persist given an unfavorable downstream environment. DISCUSSION...Lightning trends and GOES IR cloud-top temperatures have shown a slight uptick in convective intensity within a decaying MCS draped from central OH to far northeast KY. Recent surface observations continue to sample sub-severe winds within this line, but the MCS appears to be only slightly outflow dominant per recent radar/velocity imagery. This recent uptick suggests that the MCS may briefly become more balanced and produce isolated stronger winds capable of damage. However, this trend is not expected to last long given limited buoyancy and poor deep-layer shear downstream into PA, WV, and far eastern KY. ..Moore/Gleason.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN... LAT...LON 39978190 40618190 41198206 41468232 41678224 41988120 42228020 42118002 41707996 41298007 40768018 40248042 39768072 38968132 38548157 38268181 38018221 37908252 37868287 37868327 37988353 38168368 38418363 38448332 38518301 38598280 38768254 39048229 39208221 39978190 Read more

MD 1619 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN OHIO INTO FAR WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND PENNSYLVANIA AND FAR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 1619 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0529 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Areas affected...Eastern Ohio into far western West Virginia and Pennsylvania and far northeast Kentucky Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 142229Z - 150030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Convection within a decaying MCS across OH has shown signs of re-intensification over the past hour, and a damaging wind threat may persist for another hour or two. However, this trend is not expected to persist given an unfavorable downstream environment. DISCUSSION...Lightning trends and GOES IR cloud-top temperatures have shown a slight uptick in convective intensity within a decaying MCS draped from central OH to far northeast KY. Recent surface observations continue to sample sub-severe winds within this line, but the MCS appears to be only slightly outflow dominant per recent radar/velocity imagery. This recent uptick suggests that the MCS may briefly become more balanced and produce isolated stronger winds capable of damage. However, this trend is not expected to last long given limited buoyancy and poor deep-layer shear downstream into PA, WV, and far eastern KY. ..Moore/Gleason.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN... LAT...LON 39978190 40618190 41198206 41468232 41678224 41988120 42228020 42118002 41707996 41298007 40768018 40248042 39768072 38968132 38548157 38268181 38018221 37908252 37868287 37868327 37988353 38168368 38418363 38448332 38518301 38598280 38768254 39048229 39208221 39978190 Read more