Aggregator

WW 0535 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 535 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW LAF TO 40 SSE SBN TO 30 S AZO TO 15 SE GRR. ..BROYLES..07/15/24 ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 535 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC017-069-085-103-113-169-181-183-150840- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS HUNTINGTON KOSCIUSKO MIAMI NOBLE WABASH WHITE WHITLEY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0535 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 535 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW LAF TO 40 SSE SBN TO 30 S AZO TO 15 SE GRR. ..BROYLES..07/15/24 ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 535 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC017-069-085-103-113-169-181-183-150840- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS HUNTINGTON KOSCIUSKO MIAMI NOBLE WABASH WHITE WHITLEY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 535 SEVERE TSTM IN MI LM 150345Z - 150900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 535 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Indiana Southwest Lower Michigan Lake Michigan * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 1145 PM until 500 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A small bowing complex of thunderstorms should pose some threat for damaging winds as it moves east-southeastward through the early morning hours. Peak gusts may reach up to 60-70 mph in the most intense portion of the bow. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles north northeast of Benton Harbor MI to 75 miles south of South Bend IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 533...WW 534... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28035. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0537 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 537 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..07/15/24 ATTN...WFO...ILX...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 537 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC019-029-039-041-045-107-115-139-147-183-150840- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAMPAIGN COLES DE WITT DOUGLAS EDGAR LOGAN MACON MOULTRIE PIATT VERMILION INC011-015-023-045-057-063-067-097-107-121-133-157-159-165-171- 150840- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE CARROLL CLINTON FOUNTAIN HAMILTON HENDRICKS HOWARD MARION MONTGOMERY PARKE PUTNAM TIPPECANOE TIPTON VERMILLION WARREN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 0536 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 536 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE Y22 TO 50 WSW JMS TO 10 WSW DVL. ..BROYLES..07/15/24 ATTN...WFO...ABR...FGF...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 536 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC011-027-155-167-150840- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG STONE CLAY TRAVERSE WILKIN NDC003-017-021-027-029-031-039-045-047-051-073-077-081-091-093- 150840- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNES CASS DICKEY EDDY EMMONS FOSTER GRIGGS LAMOURE LOGAN MCINTOSH RANSOM RICHLAND SARGENT STEELE STUTSMAN SDC013-025-029-037-039-051-057-089-091-109-115-150840- SD Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolate strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Mid-Atlantic into New England, as well as the central High Plains, on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper troughing is forecast to extend from Ontario through the Upper Midwest early Wednesday morning, before gradually shifting eastward throughout the day and ending the period extended from western Quebec into the Mid MS Valley. Enhanced mid-level flow will extend through the southern and eastern periphery of this upper trough, stretching from the OH Valley into the Northeast throughout the period. Surface low attendant to this upper trough will likely be over Quebec early Wednesday, with an extensive cold front stretching from this low southwestward into the northern portions of the southern Plains. This front is forecast to progress eastward across the Northeast, southeastward across the OH and TN Valleys, and southward across the southern Plains throughout the day. A moist and buoyant airmass will precede this front, and thunderstorms are likely as it progresses downstream. Much of this front will be displaced south of the stronger mid-level flow. The only exception is from the northern Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast, where moderate cross-boundary mid-level flow is likely. This will result in an environment supporting strong to severe thunderstorms, with damaging gusts as the primary threat. Numerous to widespread thunderstorms appear likely across the central Rockies as well, supported by increased mid-level moisture and northwesterly flow within the western periphery of an extensive upper ridge covering the western CONUS. Post-frontal upslope flow will bring favorable low-level moisture into the central High Plains. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may result as storms move off the higher terrain into the moderately moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Damaging gusts will be the primary severe threat. ..Mosier.. 07/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolate strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Mid-Atlantic into New England, as well as the central High Plains, on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper troughing is forecast to extend from Ontario through the Upper Midwest early Wednesday morning, before gradually shifting eastward throughout the day and ending the period extended from western Quebec into the Mid MS Valley. Enhanced mid-level flow will extend through the southern and eastern periphery of this upper trough, stretching from the OH Valley into the Northeast throughout the period. Surface low attendant to this upper trough will likely be over Quebec early Wednesday, with an extensive cold front stretching from this low southwestward into the northern portions of the southern Plains. This front is forecast to progress eastward across the Northeast, southeastward across the OH and TN Valleys, and southward across the southern Plains throughout the day. A moist and buoyant airmass will precede this front, and thunderstorms are likely as it progresses downstream. Much of this front will be displaced south of the stronger mid-level flow. The only exception is from the northern Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast, where moderate cross-boundary mid-level flow is likely. This will result in an environment supporting strong to severe thunderstorms, with damaging gusts as the primary threat. Numerous to widespread thunderstorms appear likely across the central Rockies as well, supported by increased mid-level moisture and northwesterly flow within the western periphery of an extensive upper ridge covering the western CONUS. Post-frontal upslope flow will bring favorable low-level moisture into the central High Plains. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may result as storms move off the higher terrain into the moderately moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Damaging gusts will be the primary severe threat. ..Mosier.. 07/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolate strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Mid-Atlantic into New England, as well as the central High Plains, on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper troughing is forecast to extend from Ontario through the Upper Midwest early Wednesday morning, before gradually shifting eastward throughout the day and ending the period extended from western Quebec into the Mid MS Valley. Enhanced mid-level flow will extend through the southern and eastern periphery of this upper trough, stretching from the OH Valley into the Northeast throughout the period. Surface low attendant to this upper trough will likely be over Quebec early Wednesday, with an extensive cold front stretching from this low southwestward into the northern portions of the southern Plains. This front is forecast to progress eastward across the Northeast, southeastward across the OH and TN Valleys, and southward across the southern Plains throughout the day. A moist and buoyant airmass will precede this front, and thunderstorms are likely as it progresses downstream. Much of this front will be displaced south of the stronger mid-level flow. The only exception is from the northern Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast, where moderate cross-boundary mid-level flow is likely. This will result in an environment supporting strong to severe thunderstorms, with damaging gusts as the primary threat. Numerous to widespread thunderstorms appear likely across the central Rockies as well, supported by increased mid-level moisture and northwesterly flow within the western periphery of an extensive upper ridge covering the western CONUS. Post-frontal upslope flow will bring favorable low-level moisture into the central High Plains. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may result as storms move off the higher terrain into the moderately moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Damaging gusts will be the primary severe threat. ..Mosier.. 07/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolate strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Mid-Atlantic into New England, as well as the central High Plains, on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper troughing is forecast to extend from Ontario through the Upper Midwest early Wednesday morning, before gradually shifting eastward throughout the day and ending the period extended from western Quebec into the Mid MS Valley. Enhanced mid-level flow will extend through the southern and eastern periphery of this upper trough, stretching from the OH Valley into the Northeast throughout the period. Surface low attendant to this upper trough will likely be over Quebec early Wednesday, with an extensive cold front stretching from this low southwestward into the northern portions of the southern Plains. This front is forecast to progress eastward across the Northeast, southeastward across the OH and TN Valleys, and southward across the southern Plains throughout the day. A moist and buoyant airmass will precede this front, and thunderstorms are likely as it progresses downstream. Much of this front will be displaced south of the stronger mid-level flow. The only exception is from the northern Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast, where moderate cross-boundary mid-level flow is likely. This will result in an environment supporting strong to severe thunderstorms, with damaging gusts as the primary threat. Numerous to widespread thunderstorms appear likely across the central Rockies as well, supported by increased mid-level moisture and northwesterly flow within the western periphery of an extensive upper ridge covering the western CONUS. Post-frontal upslope flow will bring favorable low-level moisture into the central High Plains. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may result as storms move off the higher terrain into the moderately moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Damaging gusts will be the primary severe threat. ..Mosier.. 07/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolate strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Mid-Atlantic into New England, as well as the central High Plains, on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper troughing is forecast to extend from Ontario through the Upper Midwest early Wednesday morning, before gradually shifting eastward throughout the day and ending the period extended from western Quebec into the Mid MS Valley. Enhanced mid-level flow will extend through the southern and eastern periphery of this upper trough, stretching from the OH Valley into the Northeast throughout the period. Surface low attendant to this upper trough will likely be over Quebec early Wednesday, with an extensive cold front stretching from this low southwestward into the northern portions of the southern Plains. This front is forecast to progress eastward across the Northeast, southeastward across the OH and TN Valleys, and southward across the southern Plains throughout the day. A moist and buoyant airmass will precede this front, and thunderstorms are likely as it progresses downstream. Much of this front will be displaced south of the stronger mid-level flow. The only exception is from the northern Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast, where moderate cross-boundary mid-level flow is likely. This will result in an environment supporting strong to severe thunderstorms, with damaging gusts as the primary threat. Numerous to widespread thunderstorms appear likely across the central Rockies as well, supported by increased mid-level moisture and northwesterly flow within the western periphery of an extensive upper ridge covering the western CONUS. Post-frontal upslope flow will bring favorable low-level moisture into the central High Plains. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may result as storms move off the higher terrain into the moderately moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Damaging gusts will be the primary severe threat. ..Mosier.. 07/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolate strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Mid-Atlantic into New England, as well as the central High Plains, on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper troughing is forecast to extend from Ontario through the Upper Midwest early Wednesday morning, before gradually shifting eastward throughout the day and ending the period extended from western Quebec into the Mid MS Valley. Enhanced mid-level flow will extend through the southern and eastern periphery of this upper trough, stretching from the OH Valley into the Northeast throughout the period. Surface low attendant to this upper trough will likely be over Quebec early Wednesday, with an extensive cold front stretching from this low southwestward into the northern portions of the southern Plains. This front is forecast to progress eastward across the Northeast, southeastward across the OH and TN Valleys, and southward across the southern Plains throughout the day. A moist and buoyant airmass will precede this front, and thunderstorms are likely as it progresses downstream. Much of this front will be displaced south of the stronger mid-level flow. The only exception is from the northern Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast, where moderate cross-boundary mid-level flow is likely. This will result in an environment supporting strong to severe thunderstorms, with damaging gusts as the primary threat. Numerous to widespread thunderstorms appear likely across the central Rockies as well, supported by increased mid-level moisture and northwesterly flow within the western periphery of an extensive upper ridge covering the western CONUS. Post-frontal upslope flow will bring favorable low-level moisture into the central High Plains. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may result as storms move off the higher terrain into the moderately moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Damaging gusts will be the primary severe threat. ..Mosier.. 07/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolate strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Mid-Atlantic into New England, as well as the central High Plains, on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper troughing is forecast to extend from Ontario through the Upper Midwest early Wednesday morning, before gradually shifting eastward throughout the day and ending the period extended from western Quebec into the Mid MS Valley. Enhanced mid-level flow will extend through the southern and eastern periphery of this upper trough, stretching from the OH Valley into the Northeast throughout the period. Surface low attendant to this upper trough will likely be over Quebec early Wednesday, with an extensive cold front stretching from this low southwestward into the northern portions of the southern Plains. This front is forecast to progress eastward across the Northeast, southeastward across the OH and TN Valleys, and southward across the southern Plains throughout the day. A moist and buoyant airmass will precede this front, and thunderstorms are likely as it progresses downstream. Much of this front will be displaced south of the stronger mid-level flow. The only exception is from the northern Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast, where moderate cross-boundary mid-level flow is likely. This will result in an environment supporting strong to severe thunderstorms, with damaging gusts as the primary threat. Numerous to widespread thunderstorms appear likely across the central Rockies as well, supported by increased mid-level moisture and northwesterly flow within the western periphery of an extensive upper ridge covering the western CONUS. Post-frontal upslope flow will bring favorable low-level moisture into the central High Plains. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may result as storms move off the higher terrain into the moderately moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Damaging gusts will be the primary severe threat. ..Mosier.. 07/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolate strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Mid-Atlantic into New England, as well as the central High Plains, on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper troughing is forecast to extend from Ontario through the Upper Midwest early Wednesday morning, before gradually shifting eastward throughout the day and ending the period extended from western Quebec into the Mid MS Valley. Enhanced mid-level flow will extend through the southern and eastern periphery of this upper trough, stretching from the OH Valley into the Northeast throughout the period. Surface low attendant to this upper trough will likely be over Quebec early Wednesday, with an extensive cold front stretching from this low southwestward into the northern portions of the southern Plains. This front is forecast to progress eastward across the Northeast, southeastward across the OH and TN Valleys, and southward across the southern Plains throughout the day. A moist and buoyant airmass will precede this front, and thunderstorms are likely as it progresses downstream. Much of this front will be displaced south of the stronger mid-level flow. The only exception is from the northern Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast, where moderate cross-boundary mid-level flow is likely. This will result in an environment supporting strong to severe thunderstorms, with damaging gusts as the primary threat. Numerous to widespread thunderstorms appear likely across the central Rockies as well, supported by increased mid-level moisture and northwesterly flow within the western periphery of an extensive upper ridge covering the western CONUS. Post-frontal upslope flow will bring favorable low-level moisture into the central High Plains. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may result as storms move off the higher terrain into the moderately moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Damaging gusts will be the primary severe threat. ..Mosier.. 07/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolate strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Mid-Atlantic into New England, as well as the central High Plains, on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper troughing is forecast to extend from Ontario through the Upper Midwest early Wednesday morning, before gradually shifting eastward throughout the day and ending the period extended from western Quebec into the Mid MS Valley. Enhanced mid-level flow will extend through the southern and eastern periphery of this upper trough, stretching from the OH Valley into the Northeast throughout the period. Surface low attendant to this upper trough will likely be over Quebec early Wednesday, with an extensive cold front stretching from this low southwestward into the northern portions of the southern Plains. This front is forecast to progress eastward across the Northeast, southeastward across the OH and TN Valleys, and southward across the southern Plains throughout the day. A moist and buoyant airmass will precede this front, and thunderstorms are likely as it progresses downstream. Much of this front will be displaced south of the stronger mid-level flow. The only exception is from the northern Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast, where moderate cross-boundary mid-level flow is likely. This will result in an environment supporting strong to severe thunderstorms, with damaging gusts as the primary threat. Numerous to widespread thunderstorms appear likely across the central Rockies as well, supported by increased mid-level moisture and northwesterly flow within the western periphery of an extensive upper ridge covering the western CONUS. Post-frontal upslope flow will bring favorable low-level moisture into the central High Plains. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may result as storms move off the higher terrain into the moderately moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Damaging gusts will be the primary severe threat. ..Mosier.. 07/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolate strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Mid-Atlantic into New England, as well as the central High Plains, on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper troughing is forecast to extend from Ontario through the Upper Midwest early Wednesday morning, before gradually shifting eastward throughout the day and ending the period extended from western Quebec into the Mid MS Valley. Enhanced mid-level flow will extend through the southern and eastern periphery of this upper trough, stretching from the OH Valley into the Northeast throughout the period. Surface low attendant to this upper trough will likely be over Quebec early Wednesday, with an extensive cold front stretching from this low southwestward into the northern portions of the southern Plains. This front is forecast to progress eastward across the Northeast, southeastward across the OH and TN Valleys, and southward across the southern Plains throughout the day. A moist and buoyant airmass will precede this front, and thunderstorms are likely as it progresses downstream. Much of this front will be displaced south of the stronger mid-level flow. The only exception is from the northern Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast, where moderate cross-boundary mid-level flow is likely. This will result in an environment supporting strong to severe thunderstorms, with damaging gusts as the primary threat. Numerous to widespread thunderstorms appear likely across the central Rockies as well, supported by increased mid-level moisture and northwesterly flow within the western periphery of an extensive upper ridge covering the western CONUS. Post-frontal upslope flow will bring favorable low-level moisture into the central High Plains. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may result as storms move off the higher terrain into the moderately moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Damaging gusts will be the primary severe threat. ..Mosier.. 07/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolate strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Mid-Atlantic into New England, as well as the central High Plains, on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper troughing is forecast to extend from Ontario through the Upper Midwest early Wednesday morning, before gradually shifting eastward throughout the day and ending the period extended from western Quebec into the Mid MS Valley. Enhanced mid-level flow will extend through the southern and eastern periphery of this upper trough, stretching from the OH Valley into the Northeast throughout the period. Surface low attendant to this upper trough will likely be over Quebec early Wednesday, with an extensive cold front stretching from this low southwestward into the northern portions of the southern Plains. This front is forecast to progress eastward across the Northeast, southeastward across the OH and TN Valleys, and southward across the southern Plains throughout the day. A moist and buoyant airmass will precede this front, and thunderstorms are likely as it progresses downstream. Much of this front will be displaced south of the stronger mid-level flow. The only exception is from the northern Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast, where moderate cross-boundary mid-level flow is likely. This will result in an environment supporting strong to severe thunderstorms, with damaging gusts as the primary threat. Numerous to widespread thunderstorms appear likely across the central Rockies as well, supported by increased mid-level moisture and northwesterly flow within the western periphery of an extensive upper ridge covering the western CONUS. Post-frontal upslope flow will bring favorable low-level moisture into the central High Plains. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may result as storms move off the higher terrain into the moderately moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Damaging gusts will be the primary severe threat. ..Mosier.. 07/15/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather concern across parts of the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest on Tuesday. The gradual breakdown of the Four Corners ridge will not only continue to promote thunderstorm chances, but will also mute surface pressure-gradient winds across the region. A gradual moistening trend noted in recent upper-air and satellite observations is forecast to continue into Tuesday across the Great Basin and central Rockies with PWAT values above 0.75 inch becoming more common. Recent forecast soundings and ensemble QPF solutions suggest that moistening will be greatest from AZ/NM into CO, WY, and perhaps parts of ID. Areas west of this axis will continue to see PWAT values around or below 0.75 inch and the potential for dry thunderstorms. In the absence of wetting rainfall over the next 24 hours, fuels across this region should remain receptive as thunderstorms initiate Tuesday afternoon. In addition to the potential for new fire starts from dry lightning, outflow winds from decaying thunderstorms will continue to pose a localized fire weather concern for ongoing fires across the region. ..Moore.. 07/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather concern across parts of the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest on Tuesday. The gradual breakdown of the Four Corners ridge will not only continue to promote thunderstorm chances, but will also mute surface pressure-gradient winds across the region. A gradual moistening trend noted in recent upper-air and satellite observations is forecast to continue into Tuesday across the Great Basin and central Rockies with PWAT values above 0.75 inch becoming more common. Recent forecast soundings and ensemble QPF solutions suggest that moistening will be greatest from AZ/NM into CO, WY, and perhaps parts of ID. Areas west of this axis will continue to see PWAT values around or below 0.75 inch and the potential for dry thunderstorms. In the absence of wetting rainfall over the next 24 hours, fuels across this region should remain receptive as thunderstorms initiate Tuesday afternoon. In addition to the potential for new fire starts from dry lightning, outflow winds from decaying thunderstorms will continue to pose a localized fire weather concern for ongoing fires across the region. ..Moore.. 07/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather concern across parts of the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest on Tuesday. The gradual breakdown of the Four Corners ridge will not only continue to promote thunderstorm chances, but will also mute surface pressure-gradient winds across the region. A gradual moistening trend noted in recent upper-air and satellite observations is forecast to continue into Tuesday across the Great Basin and central Rockies with PWAT values above 0.75 inch becoming more common. Recent forecast soundings and ensemble QPF solutions suggest that moistening will be greatest from AZ/NM into CO, WY, and perhaps parts of ID. Areas west of this axis will continue to see PWAT values around or below 0.75 inch and the potential for dry thunderstorms. In the absence of wetting rainfall over the next 24 hours, fuels across this region should remain receptive as thunderstorms initiate Tuesday afternoon. In addition to the potential for new fire starts from dry lightning, outflow winds from decaying thunderstorms will continue to pose a localized fire weather concern for ongoing fires across the region. ..Moore.. 07/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather concern across parts of the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest on Tuesday. The gradual breakdown of the Four Corners ridge will not only continue to promote thunderstorm chances, but will also mute surface pressure-gradient winds across the region. A gradual moistening trend noted in recent upper-air and satellite observations is forecast to continue into Tuesday across the Great Basin and central Rockies with PWAT values above 0.75 inch becoming more common. Recent forecast soundings and ensemble QPF solutions suggest that moistening will be greatest from AZ/NM into CO, WY, and perhaps parts of ID. Areas west of this axis will continue to see PWAT values around or below 0.75 inch and the potential for dry thunderstorms. In the absence of wetting rainfall over the next 24 hours, fuels across this region should remain receptive as thunderstorms initiate Tuesday afternoon. In addition to the potential for new fire starts from dry lightning, outflow winds from decaying thunderstorms will continue to pose a localized fire weather concern for ongoing fires across the region. ..Moore.. 07/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more