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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to show that the upper ridging expected to be in place across the western CONUS early D4/Thursday will persist through the weekend and into early next week while also building into western Canada. Upper troughing is expected to persist across the central and eastern CONUS through the weekend as well. Flow aloft within these features will be modest, but some moderate northwesterly flow aloft is anticipated between these two features across the High Plains. A cold front will likely stretch from the Mid-Atlantic through north Texas. This front is expected to become increasingly diffuse on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday as it moves only slightly southward. Thunderstorms are possible along this boundary on each day, but weak vertical shear should keep the severe potential low. Aforementioned northwesterly flow aloft will help support some severe potential across the High Plains, where modest low-level moisture beneath vertically veering wind profiles could support a few strong to severe storms each afternoon on D4/Thursday through D6/Saturday. After D6/Saturday, the upper ridge may shift westward, placing the northwesterly flow over the higher terrain and likely limited the severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to show that the upper ridging expected to be in place across the western CONUS early D4/Thursday will persist through the weekend and into early next week while also building into western Canada. Upper troughing is expected to persist across the central and eastern CONUS through the weekend as well. Flow aloft within these features will be modest, but some moderate northwesterly flow aloft is anticipated between these two features across the High Plains. A cold front will likely stretch from the Mid-Atlantic through north Texas. This front is expected to become increasingly diffuse on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday as it moves only slightly southward. Thunderstorms are possible along this boundary on each day, but weak vertical shear should keep the severe potential low. Aforementioned northwesterly flow aloft will help support some severe potential across the High Plains, where modest low-level moisture beneath vertically veering wind profiles could support a few strong to severe storms each afternoon on D4/Thursday through D6/Saturday. After D6/Saturday, the upper ridge may shift westward, placing the northwesterly flow over the higher terrain and likely limited the severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to show that the upper ridging expected to be in place across the western CONUS early D4/Thursday will persist through the weekend and into early next week while also building into western Canada. Upper troughing is expected to persist across the central and eastern CONUS through the weekend as well. Flow aloft within these features will be modest, but some moderate northwesterly flow aloft is anticipated between these two features across the High Plains. A cold front will likely stretch from the Mid-Atlantic through north Texas. This front is expected to become increasingly diffuse on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday as it moves only slightly southward. Thunderstorms are possible along this boundary on each day, but weak vertical shear should keep the severe potential low. Aforementioned northwesterly flow aloft will help support some severe potential across the High Plains, where modest low-level moisture beneath vertically veering wind profiles could support a few strong to severe storms each afternoon on D4/Thursday through D6/Saturday. After D6/Saturday, the upper ridge may shift westward, placing the northwesterly flow over the higher terrain and likely limited the severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to show that the upper ridging expected to be in place across the western CONUS early D4/Thursday will persist through the weekend and into early next week while also building into western Canada. Upper troughing is expected to persist across the central and eastern CONUS through the weekend as well. Flow aloft within these features will be modest, but some moderate northwesterly flow aloft is anticipated between these two features across the High Plains. A cold front will likely stretch from the Mid-Atlantic through north Texas. This front is expected to become increasingly diffuse on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday as it moves only slightly southward. Thunderstorms are possible along this boundary on each day, but weak vertical shear should keep the severe potential low. Aforementioned northwesterly flow aloft will help support some severe potential across the High Plains, where modest low-level moisture beneath vertically veering wind profiles could support a few strong to severe storms each afternoon on D4/Thursday through D6/Saturday. After D6/Saturday, the upper ridge may shift westward, placing the northwesterly flow over the higher terrain and likely limited the severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to show that the upper ridging expected to be in place across the western CONUS early D4/Thursday will persist through the weekend and into early next week while also building into western Canada. Upper troughing is expected to persist across the central and eastern CONUS through the weekend as well. Flow aloft within these features will be modest, but some moderate northwesterly flow aloft is anticipated between these two features across the High Plains. A cold front will likely stretch from the Mid-Atlantic through north Texas. This front is expected to become increasingly diffuse on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday as it moves only slightly southward. Thunderstorms are possible along this boundary on each day, but weak vertical shear should keep the severe potential low. Aforementioned northwesterly flow aloft will help support some severe potential across the High Plains, where modest low-level moisture beneath vertically veering wind profiles could support a few strong to severe storms each afternoon on D4/Thursday through D6/Saturday. After D6/Saturday, the upper ridge may shift westward, placing the northwesterly flow over the higher terrain and likely limited the severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to show that the upper ridging expected to be in place across the western CONUS early D4/Thursday will persist through the weekend and into early next week while also building into western Canada. Upper troughing is expected to persist across the central and eastern CONUS through the weekend as well. Flow aloft within these features will be modest, but some moderate northwesterly flow aloft is anticipated between these two features across the High Plains. A cold front will likely stretch from the Mid-Atlantic through north Texas. This front is expected to become increasingly diffuse on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday as it moves only slightly southward. Thunderstorms are possible along this boundary on each day, but weak vertical shear should keep the severe potential low. Aforementioned northwesterly flow aloft will help support some severe potential across the High Plains, where modest low-level moisture beneath vertically veering wind profiles could support a few strong to severe storms each afternoon on D4/Thursday through D6/Saturday. After D6/Saturday, the upper ridge may shift westward, placing the northwesterly flow over the higher terrain and likely limited the severe potential. Read more

WW 0537 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 537 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE PIA TO 5 WSW CMI TO 25 S LAF TO 20 SE LAF TO 45 ENE LAF. ..BROYLES..07/15/24 ATTN...WFO...ILX...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 537 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC029-039-041-045-107-115-139-147-150940- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLES DE WITT DOUGLAS EDGAR LOGAN MACON MOULTRIE PIATT INC011-023-057-063-067-097-107-121-133-159-165-150940- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE CLINTON HAMILTON HENDRICKS HOWARD MARION MONTGOMERY PARKE PUTNAM TIPTON VERMILLION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0537 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 537 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE PIA TO 5 WSW CMI TO 25 S LAF TO 20 SE LAF TO 45 ENE LAF. ..BROYLES..07/15/24 ATTN...WFO...ILX...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 537 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC029-039-041-045-107-115-139-147-150940- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLES DE WITT DOUGLAS EDGAR LOGAN MACON MOULTRIE PIATT INC011-023-057-063-067-097-107-121-133-159-165-150940- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE CLINTON HAMILTON HENDRICKS HOWARD MARION MONTGOMERY PARKE PUTNAM TIPTON VERMILLION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0537 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 537 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE PIA TO 5 WSW CMI TO 25 S LAF TO 20 SE LAF TO 45 ENE LAF. ..BROYLES..07/15/24 ATTN...WFO...ILX...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 537 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC029-039-041-045-107-115-139-147-150940- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLES DE WITT DOUGLAS EDGAR LOGAN MACON MOULTRIE PIATT INC011-023-057-063-067-097-107-121-133-159-165-150940- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE CLINTON HAMILTON HENDRICKS HOWARD MARION MONTGOMERY PARKE PUTNAM TIPTON VERMILLION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0537 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 537 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE PIA TO 5 WSW CMI TO 25 S LAF TO 20 SE LAF TO 45 ENE LAF. ..BROYLES..07/15/24 ATTN...WFO...ILX...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 537 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC029-039-041-045-107-115-139-147-150940- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLES DE WITT DOUGLAS EDGAR LOGAN MACON MOULTRIE PIATT INC011-023-057-063-067-097-107-121-133-159-165-150940- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE CLINTON HAMILTON HENDRICKS HOWARD MARION MONTGOMERY PARKE PUTNAM TIPTON VERMILLION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 537 SEVERE TSTM IL IN 150455Z - 150900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 537 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central Illinois Central Indiana * Effective this Monday morning from 1255 AM until 500 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms should continue to move southeastward through the early morning hours while posing some threat for mainly severe/damaging winds up to 60-70 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 30 statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles west of Decatur IL to 35 miles northeast of Indianapolis IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 533...WW 534...WW 535...WW 536... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30035. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0536 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 536 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE MBG TO 45 S JMS TO 40 NE JMS. ..BROYLES..07/15/24 ATTN...WFO...ABR...FGF...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 536 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC011-027-155-167-150940- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG STONE CLAY TRAVERSE WILKIN NDC003-017-021-045-073-077-081-091-150940- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNES CASS DICKEY LAMOURE RANSOM RICHLAND SARGENT STEELE SDC013-025-029-037-039-051-057-089-091-109-115-150940- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CLARK CODINGTON Read more

WW 0536 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 536 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE MBG TO 45 S JMS TO 40 NE JMS. ..BROYLES..07/15/24 ATTN...WFO...ABR...FGF...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 536 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC011-027-155-167-150940- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG STONE CLAY TRAVERSE WILKIN NDC003-017-021-045-073-077-081-091-150940- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNES CASS DICKEY LAMOURE RANSOM RICHLAND SARGENT STEELE SDC013-025-029-037-039-051-057-089-091-109-115-150940- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CLARK CODINGTON Read more

WW 0536 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 536 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE MBG TO 45 S JMS TO 40 NE JMS. ..BROYLES..07/15/24 ATTN...WFO...ABR...FGF...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 536 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC011-027-155-167-150940- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG STONE CLAY TRAVERSE WILKIN NDC003-017-021-045-073-077-081-091-150940- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNES CASS DICKEY LAMOURE RANSOM RICHLAND SARGENT STEELE SDC013-025-029-037-039-051-057-089-091-109-115-150940- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CLARK CODINGTON Read more

WW 0536 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 536 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE MBG TO 45 S JMS TO 40 NE JMS. ..BROYLES..07/15/24 ATTN...WFO...ABR...FGF...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 536 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC011-027-155-167-150940- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG STONE CLAY TRAVERSE WILKIN NDC003-017-021-045-073-077-081-091-150940- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNES CASS DICKEY LAMOURE RANSOM RICHLAND SARGENT STEELE SDC013-025-029-037-039-051-057-089-091-109-115-150940- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CLARK CODINGTON Read more

WW 536 SEVERE TSTM MN ND SD 150435Z - 151200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 536 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far West-Central Minnesota Central and Eastern North Dakota Northeast South Dakota * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 1135 PM until 700 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will spread southeastward through the early morning hours while posing a threat for large hail up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter, along with severe/damaging winds around 60-75 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles east northeast of Garrison ND to 5 miles southwest of Watertown SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 533...WW 534...WW 535... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30035. ...Gleason Read more

MD 1625 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 534...535...537... FOR NORTHERN ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 1625 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Areas affected...Northern Illinois...Northern Indiana...Southwest Michigan Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 534...535...537... Valid 150554Z - 150800Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 534, 535, 537 continues. SUMMARY...A wind-damage and large-hail threat is expected to continue over the next few hours across parts of northern Illinois, northern Indiana and southwest Lower Michigan. As the severe threat moves southeastward, WW 535 may need to be extended eastward. DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery shows a linear MCS in northern Illinois and northwestern Indiana, which is located along and just to the north of an east-to-west axis of instability. Along this axis, MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. In addition to the instability, the line of strong to severe storms is being supported by a shortwave trough, evident on water-vapor imagery. Ahead of the shortwave trough, the RAP has moderate deep-layer shear across much of the southern Great Lakes region. The Lincoln, Illinois WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear around 50 knots, suggesting that a severe threat will continue in the vicinity over the next few hours. Large hail and wind damage will be the primary threats, although low-level shear on forecast soundings is strong enough for a brief tornado as well. ..Broyles.. 07/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN... LAT...LON 41658702 41418771 41278879 41139008 40859043 40349030 40008958 39958841 40078676 40358601 40688542 40968517 41418489 42518450 43058502 43048597 42598639 41658702 Read more

WW 0535 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 535 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW LAF TO 40 SSE SBN TO 30 S AZO TO 15 SE GRR. ..BROYLES..07/15/24 ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 535 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC017-069-085-103-113-169-181-183-150840- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS HUNTINGTON KOSCIUSKO MIAMI NOBLE WABASH WHITE WHITLEY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0535 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 535 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW LAF TO 40 SSE SBN TO 30 S AZO TO 15 SE GRR. ..BROYLES..07/15/24 ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 535 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC017-069-085-103-113-169-181-183-150840- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS HUNTINGTON KOSCIUSKO MIAMI NOBLE WABASH WHITE WHITLEY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0535 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 535 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW LAF TO 40 SSE SBN TO 30 S AZO TO 15 SE GRR. ..BROYLES..07/15/24 ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 535 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC017-069-085-103-113-169-181-183-150840- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS HUNTINGTON KOSCIUSKO MIAMI NOBLE WABASH WHITE WHITLEY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more