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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather concern across parts of the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest on Tuesday. The gradual breakdown of the Four Corners ridge will not only continue to promote thunderstorm chances, but will also mute surface pressure-gradient winds across the region. A gradual moistening trend noted in recent upper-air and satellite observations is forecast to continue into Tuesday across the Great Basin and central Rockies with PWAT values above 0.75 inch becoming more common. Recent forecast soundings and ensemble QPF solutions suggest that moistening will be greatest from AZ/NM into CO, WY, and perhaps parts of ID. Areas west of this axis will continue to see PWAT values around or below 0.75 inch and the potential for dry thunderstorms. In the absence of wetting rainfall over the next 24 hours, fuels across this region should remain receptive as thunderstorms initiate Tuesday afternoon. In addition to the potential for new fire starts from dry lightning, outflow winds from decaying thunderstorms will continue to pose a localized fire weather concern for ongoing fires across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather concern across parts of the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest on Tuesday. The gradual breakdown of the Four Corners ridge will not only continue to promote thunderstorm chances, but will also mute surface pressure-gradient winds across the region. A gradual moistening trend noted in recent upper-air and satellite observations is forecast to continue into Tuesday across the Great Basin and central Rockies with PWAT values above 0.75 inch becoming more common. Recent forecast soundings and ensemble QPF solutions suggest that moistening will be greatest from AZ/NM into CO, WY, and perhaps parts of ID. Areas west of this axis will continue to see PWAT values around or below 0.75 inch and the potential for dry thunderstorms. In the absence of wetting rainfall over the next 24 hours, fuels across this region should remain receptive as thunderstorms initiate Tuesday afternoon. In addition to the potential for new fire starts from dry lightning, outflow winds from decaying thunderstorms will continue to pose a localized fire weather concern for ongoing fires across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather concern across parts of the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest on Tuesday. The gradual breakdown of the Four Corners ridge will not only continue to promote thunderstorm chances, but will also mute surface pressure-gradient winds across the region. A gradual moistening trend noted in recent upper-air and satellite observations is forecast to continue into Tuesday across the Great Basin and central Rockies with PWAT values above 0.75 inch becoming more common. Recent forecast soundings and ensemble QPF solutions suggest that moistening will be greatest from AZ/NM into CO, WY, and perhaps parts of ID. Areas west of this axis will continue to see PWAT values around or below 0.75 inch and the potential for dry thunderstorms. In the absence of wetting rainfall over the next 24 hours, fuels across this region should remain receptive as thunderstorms initiate Tuesday afternoon. In addition to the potential for new fire starts from dry lightning, outflow winds from decaying thunderstorms will continue to pose a localized fire weather concern for ongoing fires across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather concern across parts of the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest on Tuesday. The gradual breakdown of the Four Corners ridge will not only continue to promote thunderstorm chances, but will also mute surface pressure-gradient winds across the region. A gradual moistening trend noted in recent upper-air and satellite observations is forecast to continue into Tuesday across the Great Basin and central Rockies with PWAT values above 0.75 inch becoming more common. Recent forecast soundings and ensemble QPF solutions suggest that moistening will be greatest from AZ/NM into CO, WY, and perhaps parts of ID. Areas west of this axis will continue to see PWAT values around or below 0.75 inch and the potential for dry thunderstorms. In the absence of wetting rainfall over the next 24 hours, fuels across this region should remain receptive as thunderstorms initiate Tuesday afternoon. In addition to the potential for new fire starts from dry lightning, outflow winds from decaying thunderstorms will continue to pose a localized fire weather concern for ongoing fires across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather concern across parts of the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest on Tuesday. The gradual breakdown of the Four Corners ridge will not only continue to promote thunderstorm chances, but will also mute surface pressure-gradient winds across the region. A gradual moistening trend noted in recent upper-air and satellite observations is forecast to continue into Tuesday across the Great Basin and central Rockies with PWAT values above 0.75 inch becoming more common. Recent forecast soundings and ensemble QPF solutions suggest that moistening will be greatest from AZ/NM into CO, WY, and perhaps parts of ID. Areas west of this axis will continue to see PWAT values around or below 0.75 inch and the potential for dry thunderstorms. In the absence of wetting rainfall over the next 24 hours, fuels across this region should remain receptive as thunderstorms initiate Tuesday afternoon. In addition to the potential for new fire starts from dry lightning, outflow winds from decaying thunderstorms will continue to pose a localized fire weather concern for ongoing fires across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather concern across parts of the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest on Tuesday. The gradual breakdown of the Four Corners ridge will not only continue to promote thunderstorm chances, but will also mute surface pressure-gradient winds across the region. A gradual moistening trend noted in recent upper-air and satellite observations is forecast to continue into Tuesday across the Great Basin and central Rockies with PWAT values above 0.75 inch becoming more common. Recent forecast soundings and ensemble QPF solutions suggest that moistening will be greatest from AZ/NM into CO, WY, and perhaps parts of ID. Areas west of this axis will continue to see PWAT values around or below 0.75 inch and the potential for dry thunderstorms. In the absence of wetting rainfall over the next 24 hours, fuels across this region should remain receptive as thunderstorms initiate Tuesday afternoon. In addition to the potential for new fire starts from dry lightning, outflow winds from decaying thunderstorms will continue to pose a localized fire weather concern for ongoing fires across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather concern across parts of the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest on Tuesday. The gradual breakdown of the Four Corners ridge will not only continue to promote thunderstorm chances, but will also mute surface pressure-gradient winds across the region. A gradual moistening trend noted in recent upper-air and satellite observations is forecast to continue into Tuesday across the Great Basin and central Rockies with PWAT values above 0.75 inch becoming more common. Recent forecast soundings and ensemble QPF solutions suggest that moistening will be greatest from AZ/NM into CO, WY, and perhaps parts of ID. Areas west of this axis will continue to see PWAT values around or below 0.75 inch and the potential for dry thunderstorms. In the absence of wetting rainfall over the next 24 hours, fuels across this region should remain receptive as thunderstorms initiate Tuesday afternoon. In addition to the potential for new fire starts from dry lightning, outflow winds from decaying thunderstorms will continue to pose a localized fire weather concern for ongoing fires across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather concern across parts of the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest on Tuesday. The gradual breakdown of the Four Corners ridge will not only continue to promote thunderstorm chances, but will also mute surface pressure-gradient winds across the region. A gradual moistening trend noted in recent upper-air and satellite observations is forecast to continue into Tuesday across the Great Basin and central Rockies with PWAT values above 0.75 inch becoming more common. Recent forecast soundings and ensemble QPF solutions suggest that moistening will be greatest from AZ/NM into CO, WY, and perhaps parts of ID. Areas west of this axis will continue to see PWAT values around or below 0.75 inch and the potential for dry thunderstorms. In the absence of wetting rainfall over the next 24 hours, fuels across this region should remain receptive as thunderstorms initiate Tuesday afternoon. In addition to the potential for new fire starts from dry lightning, outflow winds from decaying thunderstorms will continue to pose a localized fire weather concern for ongoing fires across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather concern across parts of the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest on Tuesday. The gradual breakdown of the Four Corners ridge will not only continue to promote thunderstorm chances, but will also mute surface pressure-gradient winds across the region. A gradual moistening trend noted in recent upper-air and satellite observations is forecast to continue into Tuesday across the Great Basin and central Rockies with PWAT values above 0.75 inch becoming more common. Recent forecast soundings and ensemble QPF solutions suggest that moistening will be greatest from AZ/NM into CO, WY, and perhaps parts of ID. Areas west of this axis will continue to see PWAT values around or below 0.75 inch and the potential for dry thunderstorms. In the absence of wetting rainfall over the next 24 hours, fuels across this region should remain receptive as thunderstorms initiate Tuesday afternoon. In addition to the potential for new fire starts from dry lightning, outflow winds from decaying thunderstorms will continue to pose a localized fire weather concern for ongoing fires across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather concern across parts of the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest on Tuesday. The gradual breakdown of the Four Corners ridge will not only continue to promote thunderstorm chances, but will also mute surface pressure-gradient winds across the region. A gradual moistening trend noted in recent upper-air and satellite observations is forecast to continue into Tuesday across the Great Basin and central Rockies with PWAT values above 0.75 inch becoming more common. Recent forecast soundings and ensemble QPF solutions suggest that moistening will be greatest from AZ/NM into CO, WY, and perhaps parts of ID. Areas west of this axis will continue to see PWAT values around or below 0.75 inch and the potential for dry thunderstorms. In the absence of wetting rainfall over the next 24 hours, fuels across this region should remain receptive as thunderstorms initiate Tuesday afternoon. In addition to the potential for new fire starts from dry lightning, outflow winds from decaying thunderstorms will continue to pose a localized fire weather concern for ongoing fires across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather concern across parts of the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest on Tuesday. The gradual breakdown of the Four Corners ridge will not only continue to promote thunderstorm chances, but will also mute surface pressure-gradient winds across the region. A gradual moistening trend noted in recent upper-air and satellite observations is forecast to continue into Tuesday across the Great Basin and central Rockies with PWAT values above 0.75 inch becoming more common. Recent forecast soundings and ensemble QPF solutions suggest that moistening will be greatest from AZ/NM into CO, WY, and perhaps parts of ID. Areas west of this axis will continue to see PWAT values around or below 0.75 inch and the potential for dry thunderstorms. In the absence of wetting rainfall over the next 24 hours, fuels across this region should remain receptive as thunderstorms initiate Tuesday afternoon. In addition to the potential for new fire starts from dry lightning, outflow winds from decaying thunderstorms will continue to pose a localized fire weather concern for ongoing fires across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

The ongoing drought detrimental to farmers, and it doesn’t just impact crops. A local goat farm is struggling with milk production. Sharon Kay and Bill Theiss own and operate Fawn Crossing Farms in Bridgewater, where they raise several animals, including goats. The farm partially relies on profits from goat milk sales. Because of the drought and heat, there is more stress on the goats’ bodies, making it more difficult for them to produce milk. “The biggest effect the drought has had on us is the loss of milk production.” said Theiss, “We have to decide which milk customers to cut back on, and that’s usually based on medical needs of the customer.” The drought has led Theiss to feed the goats hay more often, something he said usually happens in January. With hay in higher demand, it’s become more expensive.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Jul 15 17:57:15 UTC 2024.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151739
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Jul 15 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central and Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave currently producing a large area of showers and
thunderstorms is anticipated to merge with an area of low pressure
located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula within the next day or so. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development after that occurs, and
a tropical depression could form mid- to late-week as the system
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central and
western portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC VICINITY...AS WELL AS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Plains across the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into the Northeast on Tuesday. Greater severe-thunderstorm potential is anticipated across the central Plains vicinity, and from the Upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... A somewhat complicated forecast is evident for the Day 2/Tue period. In general, broad cyclonically curved mid/upper flow associated with an upper trough developing east/southeast over the Great Lakes region will extend from the northern Plains to the Northeast. At the surface, a myriad of boundaries will be in place from the Plains to the Midwest, including outflow boundaries associated with Day 1/Mon overnight convection and a couple of cold fronts. Boundary locations and any ongoing convection/cloud debris will impact severe potential during the afternoon evening. ...Upper OH Valley into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic... Forecast guidance has trended further east/south with thunderstorm development, likely due to outflow and a convectively enhanced vorticity maxima tracking across the region by midday. A very moist airmass will be in place amid strong heating into the mid 80s (north) to upper 90s (south). Moderate to strong instability will support robust convective development. Vertical shear will be strongest over NY and vicinity (around 30-40 kt effective shear), and decrease with southward extent across PA into WV/VA. Organized cells and line segments producing severe/damaging gusts will be the main risk into early evening. ...Central/Southern Plains Vicinity... A couple of surface cold fronts will sag southward across the Plains on Tuesday. The first will be oriented from northern MO into northwest OK and the northern TX Panhandle during the morning. This front will sag southward and stall across the TX panhandle and northern OK during the afternoon. Meanwhile, another cold front will develop southward across the northern Plains into NE by late afternoon, and continue southward across NE/KS overnight. A post-frontal upslope flow regime between these two features is expected across western KS into eastern CO. Boundary-layer moisture will be somewhat modest across parts of CO/KS/NE (upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints), with richer boundary-layer moisture along the southern Plains surface boundary (mid/upper 60s F dewpoints). Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates will aid in modest destabilization across eastern CO into NE, with strong instability aligned along the TX/OK boundary. Both surface boundaries, as well as upslope flow along a surface trough across eastern CO will focus thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening. More isolated supercell storms are expected to develop across NE, posing mainly large hail and strong gust potential. More widespread coverage is expected across eastern CO/western KS. Clustering and consolidating outflow associated with this activity may allow for MCS development by evening. A bowing MCS producing damaging gusts may shift southeast along the instability gradient/surface boundary into the OK/TX Panhandles and northwest OK. ...Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys... Uncertainty is greatest from MO into the Lower OH Valley. Convection may be ongoing across the Mid-MS Valley Tuesday morning. This activity, along with any downstream cloud debris may impact the airmass for later convective development. However, a very moist airmass will be in place with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F, and even modest heating will allow for strong destabilization. Vertical shear is forecast to be weak across this area, but if an MCV is present (associated with overnight Day 1/early Day 2 activity) this could locally enhance vertical shear. Forecast solutions remain varied concerning where any afternoon thunderstorm clusters/MCSs may develop. Any storms that form will have damaging wind potential given potentially large instability and high PW supporting water-loaded downdrafts. Outlook upgrades may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence increases in a corridor of greater damaging wind potential. ...Southeast AZ... Modest instability amid 20-25 kt midlevel easterly flow and inverted-v thermodynamic profiles is expected across the area Tuesday afternoon/evening. This may support thunderstorm clusters propagating east/southeast off higher terrain with an accompany risk for isolated strong/severe gusts. ..Leitman.. 07/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC VICINITY...AS WELL AS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Plains across the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into the Northeast on Tuesday. Greater severe-thunderstorm potential is anticipated across the central Plains vicinity, and from the Upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... A somewhat complicated forecast is evident for the Day 2/Tue period. In general, broad cyclonically curved mid/upper flow associated with an upper trough developing east/southeast over the Great Lakes region will extend from the northern Plains to the Northeast. At the surface, a myriad of boundaries will be in place from the Plains to the Midwest, including outflow boundaries associated with Day 1/Mon overnight convection and a couple of cold fronts. Boundary locations and any ongoing convection/cloud debris will impact severe potential during the afternoon evening. ...Upper OH Valley into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic... Forecast guidance has trended further east/south with thunderstorm development, likely due to outflow and a convectively enhanced vorticity maxima tracking across the region by midday. A very moist airmass will be in place amid strong heating into the mid 80s (north) to upper 90s (south). Moderate to strong instability will support robust convective development. Vertical shear will be strongest over NY and vicinity (around 30-40 kt effective shear), and decrease with southward extent across PA into WV/VA. Organized cells and line segments producing severe/damaging gusts will be the main risk into early evening. ...Central/Southern Plains Vicinity... A couple of surface cold fronts will sag southward across the Plains on Tuesday. The first will be oriented from northern MO into northwest OK and the northern TX Panhandle during the morning. This front will sag southward and stall across the TX panhandle and northern OK during the afternoon. Meanwhile, another cold front will develop southward across the northern Plains into NE by late afternoon, and continue southward across NE/KS overnight. A post-frontal upslope flow regime between these two features is expected across western KS into eastern CO. Boundary-layer moisture will be somewhat modest across parts of CO/KS/NE (upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints), with richer boundary-layer moisture along the southern Plains surface boundary (mid/upper 60s F dewpoints). Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates will aid in modest destabilization across eastern CO into NE, with strong instability aligned along the TX/OK boundary. Both surface boundaries, as well as upslope flow along a surface trough across eastern CO will focus thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening. More isolated supercell storms are expected to develop across NE, posing mainly large hail and strong gust potential. More widespread coverage is expected across eastern CO/western KS. Clustering and consolidating outflow associated with this activity may allow for MCS development by evening. A bowing MCS producing damaging gusts may shift southeast along the instability gradient/surface boundary into the OK/TX Panhandles and northwest OK. ...Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys... Uncertainty is greatest from MO into the Lower OH Valley. Convection may be ongoing across the Mid-MS Valley Tuesday morning. This activity, along with any downstream cloud debris may impact the airmass for later convective development. However, a very moist airmass will be in place with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F, and even modest heating will allow for strong destabilization. Vertical shear is forecast to be weak across this area, but if an MCV is present (associated with overnight Day 1/early Day 2 activity) this could locally enhance vertical shear. Forecast solutions remain varied concerning where any afternoon thunderstorm clusters/MCSs may develop. Any storms that form will have damaging wind potential given potentially large instability and high PW supporting water-loaded downdrafts. Outlook upgrades may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence increases in a corridor of greater damaging wind potential. ...Southeast AZ... Modest instability amid 20-25 kt midlevel easterly flow and inverted-v thermodynamic profiles is expected across the area Tuesday afternoon/evening. This may support thunderstorm clusters propagating east/southeast off higher terrain with an accompany risk for isolated strong/severe gusts. ..Leitman.. 07/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC VICINITY...AS WELL AS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Plains across the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into the Northeast on Tuesday. Greater severe-thunderstorm potential is anticipated across the central Plains vicinity, and from the Upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... A somewhat complicated forecast is evident for the Day 2/Tue period. In general, broad cyclonically curved mid/upper flow associated with an upper trough developing east/southeast over the Great Lakes region will extend from the northern Plains to the Northeast. At the surface, a myriad of boundaries will be in place from the Plains to the Midwest, including outflow boundaries associated with Day 1/Mon overnight convection and a couple of cold fronts. Boundary locations and any ongoing convection/cloud debris will impact severe potential during the afternoon evening. ...Upper OH Valley into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic... Forecast guidance has trended further east/south with thunderstorm development, likely due to outflow and a convectively enhanced vorticity maxima tracking across the region by midday. A very moist airmass will be in place amid strong heating into the mid 80s (north) to upper 90s (south). Moderate to strong instability will support robust convective development. Vertical shear will be strongest over NY and vicinity (around 30-40 kt effective shear), and decrease with southward extent across PA into WV/VA. Organized cells and line segments producing severe/damaging gusts will be the main risk into early evening. ...Central/Southern Plains Vicinity... A couple of surface cold fronts will sag southward across the Plains on Tuesday. The first will be oriented from northern MO into northwest OK and the northern TX Panhandle during the morning. This front will sag southward and stall across the TX panhandle and northern OK during the afternoon. Meanwhile, another cold front will develop southward across the northern Plains into NE by late afternoon, and continue southward across NE/KS overnight. A post-frontal upslope flow regime between these two features is expected across western KS into eastern CO. Boundary-layer moisture will be somewhat modest across parts of CO/KS/NE (upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints), with richer boundary-layer moisture along the southern Plains surface boundary (mid/upper 60s F dewpoints). Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates will aid in modest destabilization across eastern CO into NE, with strong instability aligned along the TX/OK boundary. Both surface boundaries, as well as upslope flow along a surface trough across eastern CO will focus thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening. More isolated supercell storms are expected to develop across NE, posing mainly large hail and strong gust potential. More widespread coverage is expected across eastern CO/western KS. Clustering and consolidating outflow associated with this activity may allow for MCS development by evening. A bowing MCS producing damaging gusts may shift southeast along the instability gradient/surface boundary into the OK/TX Panhandles and northwest OK. ...Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys... Uncertainty is greatest from MO into the Lower OH Valley. Convection may be ongoing across the Mid-MS Valley Tuesday morning. This activity, along with any downstream cloud debris may impact the airmass for later convective development. However, a very moist airmass will be in place with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F, and even modest heating will allow for strong destabilization. Vertical shear is forecast to be weak across this area, but if an MCV is present (associated with overnight Day 1/early Day 2 activity) this could locally enhance vertical shear. Forecast solutions remain varied concerning where any afternoon thunderstorm clusters/MCSs may develop. Any storms that form will have damaging wind potential given potentially large instability and high PW supporting water-loaded downdrafts. Outlook upgrades may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence increases in a corridor of greater damaging wind potential. ...Southeast AZ... Modest instability amid 20-25 kt midlevel easterly flow and inverted-v thermodynamic profiles is expected across the area Tuesday afternoon/evening. This may support thunderstorm clusters propagating east/southeast off higher terrain with an accompany risk for isolated strong/severe gusts. ..Leitman.. 07/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC VICINITY...AS WELL AS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Plains across the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into the Northeast on Tuesday. Greater severe-thunderstorm potential is anticipated across the central Plains vicinity, and from the Upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... A somewhat complicated forecast is evident for the Day 2/Tue period. In general, broad cyclonically curved mid/upper flow associated with an upper trough developing east/southeast over the Great Lakes region will extend from the northern Plains to the Northeast. At the surface, a myriad of boundaries will be in place from the Plains to the Midwest, including outflow boundaries associated with Day 1/Mon overnight convection and a couple of cold fronts. Boundary locations and any ongoing convection/cloud debris will impact severe potential during the afternoon evening. ...Upper OH Valley into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic... Forecast guidance has trended further east/south with thunderstorm development, likely due to outflow and a convectively enhanced vorticity maxima tracking across the region by midday. A very moist airmass will be in place amid strong heating into the mid 80s (north) to upper 90s (south). Moderate to strong instability will support robust convective development. Vertical shear will be strongest over NY and vicinity (around 30-40 kt effective shear), and decrease with southward extent across PA into WV/VA. Organized cells and line segments producing severe/damaging gusts will be the main risk into early evening. ...Central/Southern Plains Vicinity... A couple of surface cold fronts will sag southward across the Plains on Tuesday. The first will be oriented from northern MO into northwest OK and the northern TX Panhandle during the morning. This front will sag southward and stall across the TX panhandle and northern OK during the afternoon. Meanwhile, another cold front will develop southward across the northern Plains into NE by late afternoon, and continue southward across NE/KS overnight. A post-frontal upslope flow regime between these two features is expected across western KS into eastern CO. Boundary-layer moisture will be somewhat modest across parts of CO/KS/NE (upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints), with richer boundary-layer moisture along the southern Plains surface boundary (mid/upper 60s F dewpoints). Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates will aid in modest destabilization across eastern CO into NE, with strong instability aligned along the TX/OK boundary. Both surface boundaries, as well as upslope flow along a surface trough across eastern CO will focus thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening. More isolated supercell storms are expected to develop across NE, posing mainly large hail and strong gust potential. More widespread coverage is expected across eastern CO/western KS. Clustering and consolidating outflow associated with this activity may allow for MCS development by evening. A bowing MCS producing damaging gusts may shift southeast along the instability gradient/surface boundary into the OK/TX Panhandles and northwest OK. ...Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys... Uncertainty is greatest from MO into the Lower OH Valley. Convection may be ongoing across the Mid-MS Valley Tuesday morning. This activity, along with any downstream cloud debris may impact the airmass for later convective development. However, a very moist airmass will be in place with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F, and even modest heating will allow for strong destabilization. Vertical shear is forecast to be weak across this area, but if an MCV is present (associated with overnight Day 1/early Day 2 activity) this could locally enhance vertical shear. Forecast solutions remain varied concerning where any afternoon thunderstorm clusters/MCSs may develop. Any storms that form will have damaging wind potential given potentially large instability and high PW supporting water-loaded downdrafts. Outlook upgrades may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence increases in a corridor of greater damaging wind potential. ...Southeast AZ... Modest instability amid 20-25 kt midlevel easterly flow and inverted-v thermodynamic profiles is expected across the area Tuesday afternoon/evening. This may support thunderstorm clusters propagating east/southeast off higher terrain with an accompany risk for isolated strong/severe gusts. ..Leitman.. 07/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC VICINITY...AS WELL AS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Plains across the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into the Northeast on Tuesday. Greater severe-thunderstorm potential is anticipated across the central Plains vicinity, and from the Upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... A somewhat complicated forecast is evident for the Day 2/Tue period. In general, broad cyclonically curved mid/upper flow associated with an upper trough developing east/southeast over the Great Lakes region will extend from the northern Plains to the Northeast. At the surface, a myriad of boundaries will be in place from the Plains to the Midwest, including outflow boundaries associated with Day 1/Mon overnight convection and a couple of cold fronts. Boundary locations and any ongoing convection/cloud debris will impact severe potential during the afternoon evening. ...Upper OH Valley into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic... Forecast guidance has trended further east/south with thunderstorm development, likely due to outflow and a convectively enhanced vorticity maxima tracking across the region by midday. A very moist airmass will be in place amid strong heating into the mid 80s (north) to upper 90s (south). Moderate to strong instability will support robust convective development. Vertical shear will be strongest over NY and vicinity (around 30-40 kt effective shear), and decrease with southward extent across PA into WV/VA. Organized cells and line segments producing severe/damaging gusts will be the main risk into early evening. ...Central/Southern Plains Vicinity... A couple of surface cold fronts will sag southward across the Plains on Tuesday. The first will be oriented from northern MO into northwest OK and the northern TX Panhandle during the morning. This front will sag southward and stall across the TX panhandle and northern OK during the afternoon. Meanwhile, another cold front will develop southward across the northern Plains into NE by late afternoon, and continue southward across NE/KS overnight. A post-frontal upslope flow regime between these two features is expected across western KS into eastern CO. Boundary-layer moisture will be somewhat modest across parts of CO/KS/NE (upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints), with richer boundary-layer moisture along the southern Plains surface boundary (mid/upper 60s F dewpoints). Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates will aid in modest destabilization across eastern CO into NE, with strong instability aligned along the TX/OK boundary. Both surface boundaries, as well as upslope flow along a surface trough across eastern CO will focus thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening. More isolated supercell storms are expected to develop across NE, posing mainly large hail and strong gust potential. More widespread coverage is expected across eastern CO/western KS. Clustering and consolidating outflow associated with this activity may allow for MCS development by evening. A bowing MCS producing damaging gusts may shift southeast along the instability gradient/surface boundary into the OK/TX Panhandles and northwest OK. ...Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys... Uncertainty is greatest from MO into the Lower OH Valley. Convection may be ongoing across the Mid-MS Valley Tuesday morning. This activity, along with any downstream cloud debris may impact the airmass for later convective development. However, a very moist airmass will be in place with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F, and even modest heating will allow for strong destabilization. Vertical shear is forecast to be weak across this area, but if an MCV is present (associated with overnight Day 1/early Day 2 activity) this could locally enhance vertical shear. Forecast solutions remain varied concerning where any afternoon thunderstorm clusters/MCSs may develop. Any storms that form will have damaging wind potential given potentially large instability and high PW supporting water-loaded downdrafts. Outlook upgrades may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence increases in a corridor of greater damaging wind potential. ...Southeast AZ... Modest instability amid 20-25 kt midlevel easterly flow and inverted-v thermodynamic profiles is expected across the area Tuesday afternoon/evening. This may support thunderstorm clusters propagating east/southeast off higher terrain with an accompany risk for isolated strong/severe gusts. ..Leitman.. 07/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC VICINITY...AS WELL AS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Plains across the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into the Northeast on Tuesday. Greater severe-thunderstorm potential is anticipated across the central Plains vicinity, and from the Upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... A somewhat complicated forecast is evident for the Day 2/Tue period. In general, broad cyclonically curved mid/upper flow associated with an upper trough developing east/southeast over the Great Lakes region will extend from the northern Plains to the Northeast. At the surface, a myriad of boundaries will be in place from the Plains to the Midwest, including outflow boundaries associated with Day 1/Mon overnight convection and a couple of cold fronts. Boundary locations and any ongoing convection/cloud debris will impact severe potential during the afternoon evening. ...Upper OH Valley into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic... Forecast guidance has trended further east/south with thunderstorm development, likely due to outflow and a convectively enhanced vorticity maxima tracking across the region by midday. A very moist airmass will be in place amid strong heating into the mid 80s (north) to upper 90s (south). Moderate to strong instability will support robust convective development. Vertical shear will be strongest over NY and vicinity (around 30-40 kt effective shear), and decrease with southward extent across PA into WV/VA. Organized cells and line segments producing severe/damaging gusts will be the main risk into early evening. ...Central/Southern Plains Vicinity... A couple of surface cold fronts will sag southward across the Plains on Tuesday. The first will be oriented from northern MO into northwest OK and the northern TX Panhandle during the morning. This front will sag southward and stall across the TX panhandle and northern OK during the afternoon. Meanwhile, another cold front will develop southward across the northern Plains into NE by late afternoon, and continue southward across NE/KS overnight. A post-frontal upslope flow regime between these two features is expected across western KS into eastern CO. Boundary-layer moisture will be somewhat modest across parts of CO/KS/NE (upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints), with richer boundary-layer moisture along the southern Plains surface boundary (mid/upper 60s F dewpoints). Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates will aid in modest destabilization across eastern CO into NE, with strong instability aligned along the TX/OK boundary. Both surface boundaries, as well as upslope flow along a surface trough across eastern CO will focus thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening. More isolated supercell storms are expected to develop across NE, posing mainly large hail and strong gust potential. More widespread coverage is expected across eastern CO/western KS. Clustering and consolidating outflow associated with this activity may allow for MCS development by evening. A bowing MCS producing damaging gusts may shift southeast along the instability gradient/surface boundary into the OK/TX Panhandles and northwest OK. ...Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys... Uncertainty is greatest from MO into the Lower OH Valley. Convection may be ongoing across the Mid-MS Valley Tuesday morning. This activity, along with any downstream cloud debris may impact the airmass for later convective development. However, a very moist airmass will be in place with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F, and even modest heating will allow for strong destabilization. Vertical shear is forecast to be weak across this area, but if an MCV is present (associated with overnight Day 1/early Day 2 activity) this could locally enhance vertical shear. Forecast solutions remain varied concerning where any afternoon thunderstorm clusters/MCSs may develop. Any storms that form will have damaging wind potential given potentially large instability and high PW supporting water-loaded downdrafts. Outlook upgrades may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence increases in a corridor of greater damaging wind potential. ...Southeast AZ... Modest instability amid 20-25 kt midlevel easterly flow and inverted-v thermodynamic profiles is expected across the area Tuesday afternoon/evening. This may support thunderstorm clusters propagating east/southeast off higher terrain with an accompany risk for isolated strong/severe gusts. ..Leitman.. 07/15/2024 Read more