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WW 529 SEVERE TSTM SD 140430Z - 141100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 529 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central South Dakota * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 1130 PM until 600 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 85 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A small but intense bowing cluster will move quickly southeastward from northwest into central South Dakota through the overnight hours. Scattered severe/damaging winds appear likely, with some significant gusts up to around 85 mph possible. Isolated severe hail may occur as well. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles north northwest of Mobridge SD to 45 miles south southeast of Pierre SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 524...WW 526...WW 527...WW 528... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 75 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30040. ...Gleason Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Plains across the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Western CONUS upper ridging is expected to build on Tuesday, reaching into much of western Canada by early Wednesday morning. At the same time, upper troughing covering much of eastern Canada is expected to gradually deepen while shifting eastward, maintaining a belt of moderate cyclonic flow aloft from the Upper Midwest across the Upper Great Lakes, and into the Northeast. Surface low associated with the Canadian upper trough will likely be over eastern Ontario and southwest Quebec early Tuesday morning, with a cold front extended southwestward from the low to another low in central KS. A moist airmass is expected to be in place ahead of this front, with dewpoints ranging from the low 70s across the OH Valley into the upper 60s across the Northeast. Thunderstorm development appears likely along this front as the airmass ahead of it heats and destabilizes. Much of the stronger mid-level flow will be displaced north of the front and better low-level moisture. However, strong buoyancy could still support robust updrafts and the potential for precipitation loading and damaging gusts along the length of the front. Some overlap between the stronger mid-level flow and better buoyancy is possible from the Upper OH Valley into western NY, where there appears to be a greater potential for strong to severe storms. Additionally, post-frontal upslope flow is anticipated across the the central High Plains. This may help support the development of strong to severe storms as thunderstorms move off the higher terrain into the modestly moist airmass of the central High Plains. Moderate vertical shear could help support greater updraft persistence and the potential for organization into a more organized linear system. Damaging gusts are the primary severe risk in this area. ..Mosier.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Plains across the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Western CONUS upper ridging is expected to build on Tuesday, reaching into much of western Canada by early Wednesday morning. At the same time, upper troughing covering much of eastern Canada is expected to gradually deepen while shifting eastward, maintaining a belt of moderate cyclonic flow aloft from the Upper Midwest across the Upper Great Lakes, and into the Northeast. Surface low associated with the Canadian upper trough will likely be over eastern Ontario and southwest Quebec early Tuesday morning, with a cold front extended southwestward from the low to another low in central KS. A moist airmass is expected to be in place ahead of this front, with dewpoints ranging from the low 70s across the OH Valley into the upper 60s across the Northeast. Thunderstorm development appears likely along this front as the airmass ahead of it heats and destabilizes. Much of the stronger mid-level flow will be displaced north of the front and better low-level moisture. However, strong buoyancy could still support robust updrafts and the potential for precipitation loading and damaging gusts along the length of the front. Some overlap between the stronger mid-level flow and better buoyancy is possible from the Upper OH Valley into western NY, where there appears to be a greater potential for strong to severe storms. Additionally, post-frontal upslope flow is anticipated across the the central High Plains. This may help support the development of strong to severe storms as thunderstorms move off the higher terrain into the modestly moist airmass of the central High Plains. Moderate vertical shear could help support greater updraft persistence and the potential for organization into a more organized linear system. Damaging gusts are the primary severe risk in this area. ..Mosier.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Plains across the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Western CONUS upper ridging is expected to build on Tuesday, reaching into much of western Canada by early Wednesday morning. At the same time, upper troughing covering much of eastern Canada is expected to gradually deepen while shifting eastward, maintaining a belt of moderate cyclonic flow aloft from the Upper Midwest across the Upper Great Lakes, and into the Northeast. Surface low associated with the Canadian upper trough will likely be over eastern Ontario and southwest Quebec early Tuesday morning, with a cold front extended southwestward from the low to another low in central KS. A moist airmass is expected to be in place ahead of this front, with dewpoints ranging from the low 70s across the OH Valley into the upper 60s across the Northeast. Thunderstorm development appears likely along this front as the airmass ahead of it heats and destabilizes. Much of the stronger mid-level flow will be displaced north of the front and better low-level moisture. However, strong buoyancy could still support robust updrafts and the potential for precipitation loading and damaging gusts along the length of the front. Some overlap between the stronger mid-level flow and better buoyancy is possible from the Upper OH Valley into western NY, where there appears to be a greater potential for strong to severe storms. Additionally, post-frontal upslope flow is anticipated across the the central High Plains. This may help support the development of strong to severe storms as thunderstorms move off the higher terrain into the modestly moist airmass of the central High Plains. Moderate vertical shear could help support greater updraft persistence and the potential for organization into a more organized linear system. Damaging gusts are the primary severe risk in this area. ..Mosier.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Plains across the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Western CONUS upper ridging is expected to build on Tuesday, reaching into much of western Canada by early Wednesday morning. At the same time, upper troughing covering much of eastern Canada is expected to gradually deepen while shifting eastward, maintaining a belt of moderate cyclonic flow aloft from the Upper Midwest across the Upper Great Lakes, and into the Northeast. Surface low associated with the Canadian upper trough will likely be over eastern Ontario and southwest Quebec early Tuesday morning, with a cold front extended southwestward from the low to another low in central KS. A moist airmass is expected to be in place ahead of this front, with dewpoints ranging from the low 70s across the OH Valley into the upper 60s across the Northeast. Thunderstorm development appears likely along this front as the airmass ahead of it heats and destabilizes. Much of the stronger mid-level flow will be displaced north of the front and better low-level moisture. However, strong buoyancy could still support robust updrafts and the potential for precipitation loading and damaging gusts along the length of the front. Some overlap between the stronger mid-level flow and better buoyancy is possible from the Upper OH Valley into western NY, where there appears to be a greater potential for strong to severe storms. Additionally, post-frontal upslope flow is anticipated across the the central High Plains. This may help support the development of strong to severe storms as thunderstorms move off the higher terrain into the modestly moist airmass of the central High Plains. Moderate vertical shear could help support greater updraft persistence and the potential for organization into a more organized linear system. Damaging gusts are the primary severe risk in this area. ..Mosier.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Plains across the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Western CONUS upper ridging is expected to build on Tuesday, reaching into much of western Canada by early Wednesday morning. At the same time, upper troughing covering much of eastern Canada is expected to gradually deepen while shifting eastward, maintaining a belt of moderate cyclonic flow aloft from the Upper Midwest across the Upper Great Lakes, and into the Northeast. Surface low associated with the Canadian upper trough will likely be over eastern Ontario and southwest Quebec early Tuesday morning, with a cold front extended southwestward from the low to another low in central KS. A moist airmass is expected to be in place ahead of this front, with dewpoints ranging from the low 70s across the OH Valley into the upper 60s across the Northeast. Thunderstorm development appears likely along this front as the airmass ahead of it heats and destabilizes. Much of the stronger mid-level flow will be displaced north of the front and better low-level moisture. However, strong buoyancy could still support robust updrafts and the potential for precipitation loading and damaging gusts along the length of the front. Some overlap between the stronger mid-level flow and better buoyancy is possible from the Upper OH Valley into western NY, where there appears to be a greater potential for strong to severe storms. Additionally, post-frontal upslope flow is anticipated across the the central High Plains. This may help support the development of strong to severe storms as thunderstorms move off the higher terrain into the modestly moist airmass of the central High Plains. Moderate vertical shear could help support greater updraft persistence and the potential for organization into a more organized linear system. Damaging gusts are the primary severe risk in this area. ..Mosier.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Plains across the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Western CONUS upper ridging is expected to build on Tuesday, reaching into much of western Canada by early Wednesday morning. At the same time, upper troughing covering much of eastern Canada is expected to gradually deepen while shifting eastward, maintaining a belt of moderate cyclonic flow aloft from the Upper Midwest across the Upper Great Lakes, and into the Northeast. Surface low associated with the Canadian upper trough will likely be over eastern Ontario and southwest Quebec early Tuesday morning, with a cold front extended southwestward from the low to another low in central KS. A moist airmass is expected to be in place ahead of this front, with dewpoints ranging from the low 70s across the OH Valley into the upper 60s across the Northeast. Thunderstorm development appears likely along this front as the airmass ahead of it heats and destabilizes. Much of the stronger mid-level flow will be displaced north of the front and better low-level moisture. However, strong buoyancy could still support robust updrafts and the potential for precipitation loading and damaging gusts along the length of the front. Some overlap between the stronger mid-level flow and better buoyancy is possible from the Upper OH Valley into western NY, where there appears to be a greater potential for strong to severe storms. Additionally, post-frontal upslope flow is anticipated across the the central High Plains. This may help support the development of strong to severe storms as thunderstorms move off the higher terrain into the modestly moist airmass of the central High Plains. Moderate vertical shear could help support greater updraft persistence and the potential for organization into a more organized linear system. Damaging gusts are the primary severe risk in this area. ..Mosier.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Plains across the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Western CONUS upper ridging is expected to build on Tuesday, reaching into much of western Canada by early Wednesday morning. At the same time, upper troughing covering much of eastern Canada is expected to gradually deepen while shifting eastward, maintaining a belt of moderate cyclonic flow aloft from the Upper Midwest across the Upper Great Lakes, and into the Northeast. Surface low associated with the Canadian upper trough will likely be over eastern Ontario and southwest Quebec early Tuesday morning, with a cold front extended southwestward from the low to another low in central KS. A moist airmass is expected to be in place ahead of this front, with dewpoints ranging from the low 70s across the OH Valley into the upper 60s across the Northeast. Thunderstorm development appears likely along this front as the airmass ahead of it heats and destabilizes. Much of the stronger mid-level flow will be displaced north of the front and better low-level moisture. However, strong buoyancy could still support robust updrafts and the potential for precipitation loading and damaging gusts along the length of the front. Some overlap between the stronger mid-level flow and better buoyancy is possible from the Upper OH Valley into western NY, where there appears to be a greater potential for strong to severe storms. Additionally, post-frontal upslope flow is anticipated across the the central High Plains. This may help support the development of strong to severe storms as thunderstorms move off the higher terrain into the modestly moist airmass of the central High Plains. Moderate vertical shear could help support greater updraft persistence and the potential for organization into a more organized linear system. Damaging gusts are the primary severe risk in this area. ..Mosier.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Plains across the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Western CONUS upper ridging is expected to build on Tuesday, reaching into much of western Canada by early Wednesday morning. At the same time, upper troughing covering much of eastern Canada is expected to gradually deepen while shifting eastward, maintaining a belt of moderate cyclonic flow aloft from the Upper Midwest across the Upper Great Lakes, and into the Northeast. Surface low associated with the Canadian upper trough will likely be over eastern Ontario and southwest Quebec early Tuesday morning, with a cold front extended southwestward from the low to another low in central KS. A moist airmass is expected to be in place ahead of this front, with dewpoints ranging from the low 70s across the OH Valley into the upper 60s across the Northeast. Thunderstorm development appears likely along this front as the airmass ahead of it heats and destabilizes. Much of the stronger mid-level flow will be displaced north of the front and better low-level moisture. However, strong buoyancy could still support robust updrafts and the potential for precipitation loading and damaging gusts along the length of the front. Some overlap between the stronger mid-level flow and better buoyancy is possible from the Upper OH Valley into western NY, where there appears to be a greater potential for strong to severe storms. Additionally, post-frontal upslope flow is anticipated across the the central High Plains. This may help support the development of strong to severe storms as thunderstorms move off the higher terrain into the modestly moist airmass of the central High Plains. Moderate vertical shear could help support greater updraft persistence and the potential for organization into a more organized linear system. Damaging gusts are the primary severe risk in this area. ..Mosier.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Plains across the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Western CONUS upper ridging is expected to build on Tuesday, reaching into much of western Canada by early Wednesday morning. At the same time, upper troughing covering much of eastern Canada is expected to gradually deepen while shifting eastward, maintaining a belt of moderate cyclonic flow aloft from the Upper Midwest across the Upper Great Lakes, and into the Northeast. Surface low associated with the Canadian upper trough will likely be over eastern Ontario and southwest Quebec early Tuesday morning, with a cold front extended southwestward from the low to another low in central KS. A moist airmass is expected to be in place ahead of this front, with dewpoints ranging from the low 70s across the OH Valley into the upper 60s across the Northeast. Thunderstorm development appears likely along this front as the airmass ahead of it heats and destabilizes. Much of the stronger mid-level flow will be displaced north of the front and better low-level moisture. However, strong buoyancy could still support robust updrafts and the potential for precipitation loading and damaging gusts along the length of the front. Some overlap between the stronger mid-level flow and better buoyancy is possible from the Upper OH Valley into western NY, where there appears to be a greater potential for strong to severe storms. Additionally, post-frontal upslope flow is anticipated across the the central High Plains. This may help support the development of strong to severe storms as thunderstorms move off the higher terrain into the modestly moist airmass of the central High Plains. Moderate vertical shear could help support greater updraft persistence and the potential for organization into a more organized linear system. Damaging gusts are the primary severe risk in this area. ..Mosier.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Plains across the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Western CONUS upper ridging is expected to build on Tuesday, reaching into much of western Canada by early Wednesday morning. At the same time, upper troughing covering much of eastern Canada is expected to gradually deepen while shifting eastward, maintaining a belt of moderate cyclonic flow aloft from the Upper Midwest across the Upper Great Lakes, and into the Northeast. Surface low associated with the Canadian upper trough will likely be over eastern Ontario and southwest Quebec early Tuesday morning, with a cold front extended southwestward from the low to another low in central KS. A moist airmass is expected to be in place ahead of this front, with dewpoints ranging from the low 70s across the OH Valley into the upper 60s across the Northeast. Thunderstorm development appears likely along this front as the airmass ahead of it heats and destabilizes. Much of the stronger mid-level flow will be displaced north of the front and better low-level moisture. However, strong buoyancy could still support robust updrafts and the potential for precipitation loading and damaging gusts along the length of the front. Some overlap between the stronger mid-level flow and better buoyancy is possible from the Upper OH Valley into western NY, where there appears to be a greater potential for strong to severe storms. Additionally, post-frontal upslope flow is anticipated across the the central High Plains. This may help support the development of strong to severe storms as thunderstorms move off the higher terrain into the modestly moist airmass of the central High Plains. Moderate vertical shear could help support greater updraft persistence and the potential for organization into a more organized linear system. Damaging gusts are the primary severe risk in this area. ..Mosier.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Plains across the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Western CONUS upper ridging is expected to build on Tuesday, reaching into much of western Canada by early Wednesday morning. At the same time, upper troughing covering much of eastern Canada is expected to gradually deepen while shifting eastward, maintaining a belt of moderate cyclonic flow aloft from the Upper Midwest across the Upper Great Lakes, and into the Northeast. Surface low associated with the Canadian upper trough will likely be over eastern Ontario and southwest Quebec early Tuesday morning, with a cold front extended southwestward from the low to another low in central KS. A moist airmass is expected to be in place ahead of this front, with dewpoints ranging from the low 70s across the OH Valley into the upper 60s across the Northeast. Thunderstorm development appears likely along this front as the airmass ahead of it heats and destabilizes. Much of the stronger mid-level flow will be displaced north of the front and better low-level moisture. However, strong buoyancy could still support robust updrafts and the potential for precipitation loading and damaging gusts along the length of the front. Some overlap between the stronger mid-level flow and better buoyancy is possible from the Upper OH Valley into western NY, where there appears to be a greater potential for strong to severe storms. Additionally, post-frontal upslope flow is anticipated across the the central High Plains. This may help support the development of strong to severe storms as thunderstorms move off the higher terrain into the modestly moist airmass of the central High Plains. Moderate vertical shear could help support greater updraft persistence and the potential for organization into a more organized linear system. Damaging gusts are the primary severe risk in this area. ..Mosier.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Plains across the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Western CONUS upper ridging is expected to build on Tuesday, reaching into much of western Canada by early Wednesday morning. At the same time, upper troughing covering much of eastern Canada is expected to gradually deepen while shifting eastward, maintaining a belt of moderate cyclonic flow aloft from the Upper Midwest across the Upper Great Lakes, and into the Northeast. Surface low associated with the Canadian upper trough will likely be over eastern Ontario and southwest Quebec early Tuesday morning, with a cold front extended southwestward from the low to another low in central KS. A moist airmass is expected to be in place ahead of this front, with dewpoints ranging from the low 70s across the OH Valley into the upper 60s across the Northeast. Thunderstorm development appears likely along this front as the airmass ahead of it heats and destabilizes. Much of the stronger mid-level flow will be displaced north of the front and better low-level moisture. However, strong buoyancy could still support robust updrafts and the potential for precipitation loading and damaging gusts along the length of the front. Some overlap between the stronger mid-level flow and better buoyancy is possible from the Upper OH Valley into western NY, where there appears to be a greater potential for strong to severe storms. Additionally, post-frontal upslope flow is anticipated across the the central High Plains. This may help support the development of strong to severe storms as thunderstorms move off the higher terrain into the modestly moist airmass of the central High Plains. Moderate vertical shear could help support greater updraft persistence and the potential for organization into a more organized linear system. Damaging gusts are the primary severe risk in this area. ..Mosier.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Plains across the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Western CONUS upper ridging is expected to build on Tuesday, reaching into much of western Canada by early Wednesday morning. At the same time, upper troughing covering much of eastern Canada is expected to gradually deepen while shifting eastward, maintaining a belt of moderate cyclonic flow aloft from the Upper Midwest across the Upper Great Lakes, and into the Northeast. Surface low associated with the Canadian upper trough will likely be over eastern Ontario and southwest Quebec early Tuesday morning, with a cold front extended southwestward from the low to another low in central KS. A moist airmass is expected to be in place ahead of this front, with dewpoints ranging from the low 70s across the OH Valley into the upper 60s across the Northeast. Thunderstorm development appears likely along this front as the airmass ahead of it heats and destabilizes. Much of the stronger mid-level flow will be displaced north of the front and better low-level moisture. However, strong buoyancy could still support robust updrafts and the potential for precipitation loading and damaging gusts along the length of the front. Some overlap between the stronger mid-level flow and better buoyancy is possible from the Upper OH Valley into western NY, where there appears to be a greater potential for strong to severe storms. Additionally, post-frontal upslope flow is anticipated across the the central High Plains. This may help support the development of strong to severe storms as thunderstorms move off the higher terrain into the modestly moist airmass of the central High Plains. Moderate vertical shear could help support greater updraft persistence and the potential for organization into a more organized linear system. Damaging gusts are the primary severe risk in this area. ..Mosier.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Plains across the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Western CONUS upper ridging is expected to build on Tuesday, reaching into much of western Canada by early Wednesday morning. At the same time, upper troughing covering much of eastern Canada is expected to gradually deepen while shifting eastward, maintaining a belt of moderate cyclonic flow aloft from the Upper Midwest across the Upper Great Lakes, and into the Northeast. Surface low associated with the Canadian upper trough will likely be over eastern Ontario and southwest Quebec early Tuesday morning, with a cold front extended southwestward from the low to another low in central KS. A moist airmass is expected to be in place ahead of this front, with dewpoints ranging from the low 70s across the OH Valley into the upper 60s across the Northeast. Thunderstorm development appears likely along this front as the airmass ahead of it heats and destabilizes. Much of the stronger mid-level flow will be displaced north of the front and better low-level moisture. However, strong buoyancy could still support robust updrafts and the potential for precipitation loading and damaging gusts along the length of the front. Some overlap between the stronger mid-level flow and better buoyancy is possible from the Upper OH Valley into western NY, where there appears to be a greater potential for strong to severe storms. Additionally, post-frontal upslope flow is anticipated across the the central High Plains. This may help support the development of strong to severe storms as thunderstorms move off the higher terrain into the modestly moist airmass of the central High Plains. Moderate vertical shear could help support greater updraft persistence and the potential for organization into a more organized linear system. Damaging gusts are the primary severe risk in this area. ..Mosier.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Plains across the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Western CONUS upper ridging is expected to build on Tuesday, reaching into much of western Canada by early Wednesday morning. At the same time, upper troughing covering much of eastern Canada is expected to gradually deepen while shifting eastward, maintaining a belt of moderate cyclonic flow aloft from the Upper Midwest across the Upper Great Lakes, and into the Northeast. Surface low associated with the Canadian upper trough will likely be over eastern Ontario and southwest Quebec early Tuesday morning, with a cold front extended southwestward from the low to another low in central KS. A moist airmass is expected to be in place ahead of this front, with dewpoints ranging from the low 70s across the OH Valley into the upper 60s across the Northeast. Thunderstorm development appears likely along this front as the airmass ahead of it heats and destabilizes. Much of the stronger mid-level flow will be displaced north of the front and better low-level moisture. However, strong buoyancy could still support robust updrafts and the potential for precipitation loading and damaging gusts along the length of the front. Some overlap between the stronger mid-level flow and better buoyancy is possible from the Upper OH Valley into western NY, where there appears to be a greater potential for strong to severe storms. Additionally, post-frontal upslope flow is anticipated across the the central High Plains. This may help support the development of strong to severe storms as thunderstorms move off the higher terrain into the modestly moist airmass of the central High Plains. Moderate vertical shear could help support greater updraft persistence and the potential for organization into a more organized linear system. Damaging gusts are the primary severe risk in this area. ..Mosier.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Plains across the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Western CONUS upper ridging is expected to build on Tuesday, reaching into much of western Canada by early Wednesday morning. At the same time, upper troughing covering much of eastern Canada is expected to gradually deepen while shifting eastward, maintaining a belt of moderate cyclonic flow aloft from the Upper Midwest across the Upper Great Lakes, and into the Northeast. Surface low associated with the Canadian upper trough will likely be over eastern Ontario and southwest Quebec early Tuesday morning, with a cold front extended southwestward from the low to another low in central KS. A moist airmass is expected to be in place ahead of this front, with dewpoints ranging from the low 70s across the OH Valley into the upper 60s across the Northeast. Thunderstorm development appears likely along this front as the airmass ahead of it heats and destabilizes. Much of the stronger mid-level flow will be displaced north of the front and better low-level moisture. However, strong buoyancy could still support robust updrafts and the potential for precipitation loading and damaging gusts along the length of the front. Some overlap between the stronger mid-level flow and better buoyancy is possible from the Upper OH Valley into western NY, where there appears to be a greater potential for strong to severe storms. Additionally, post-frontal upslope flow is anticipated across the the central High Plains. This may help support the development of strong to severe storms as thunderstorms move off the higher terrain into the modestly moist airmass of the central High Plains. Moderate vertical shear could help support greater updraft persistence and the potential for organization into a more organized linear system. Damaging gusts are the primary severe risk in this area. ..Mosier.. 07/14/2024 Read more

WW 0531 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 531 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..07/14/24 ATTN...WFO...FSD...MPX...LBF...OAX...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 531 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC021-035-041-059-093-119-141-143-149-167-193-140840- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUENA VISTA CHEROKEE CLAY DICKINSON IDA LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH SIOUX WOODBURY MNC023-033-063-073-081-083-101-105-117-127-133-173-140840- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHIPPEWA COTTONWOOD JACKSON LAC QUI PARLE LINCOLN LYON MURRAY NOBLES PIPESTONE REDWOOD ROCK YELLOW MEDICINE NEC015-027-043-051-089-107-140840- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0531 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 531 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..07/14/24 ATTN...WFO...FSD...MPX...LBF...OAX...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 531 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC021-035-041-059-093-119-141-143-149-167-193-140840- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUENA VISTA CHEROKEE CLAY DICKINSON IDA LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH SIOUX WOODBURY MNC023-033-063-073-081-083-101-105-117-127-133-173-140840- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHIPPEWA COTTONWOOD JACKSON LAC QUI PARLE LINCOLN LYON MURRAY NOBLES PIPESTONE REDWOOD ROCK YELLOW MEDICINE NEC015-027-043-051-089-107-140840- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... Isolated to widely scattered dry thunderstorms are expected again on Monday as a weak mid-level perturbation (currently off the CA coast) continues to translate to the north/northeast on the northwestern periphery of a de-amplifying upper ridge over the Four Corners. The diminishing ridge and weak nature of the offshore low will result in muted surface pressure gradients and generally benign winds away from convective outflows. A plume of 0.5 to 0.75 PWAT values is already in place across the Great Basin and central Rockies, and thunderstorms over the preceding days are not expected to appreciably moisten the lowest few kilometers or provide much wetting rainfall. This should maintain receptive fuels and favorable thermodynamic profiles for dry thunderstorms across a large swath of the Great Basin. Thunderstorm coverage may be higher across the central and northern Rockies, but higher PWAT values, lower LCLs, and higher MUCAPE values suggest the potential for wet thunderstorms should increase with eastward extent. ..Moore.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more