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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LAKE HURON AND ERIE VICINITY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe storms will be possible from Lakes Huron and Erie southwestward into the Midwest Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue moving slowly eastward out of the north-central U.S. across the Great Lakes and Midwest on Friday, with the more vigorous portion of the trough expected to eject northeastward across western Ontario into the Hudson Bay region. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to continue eastward across the Great Lakes, southeastward across the Midwest, and slowly southward across the southern Plains. By the end of the period, the front should extend from the Lower Great Lakes west-southwestward across the Ohio Valley, and into Oklahoma and northern Texas. ...Lower Michigan/northern Ohio/northwestern Pennsylvania across the Midwest... Moderate destabilization is expected in tandem with afternoon heating ahead of the cold front, from Lower Michigan west-southwestward across northern Illinois and Missouri, and southward across the warm sector. As the front slowly advances, scattered thunderstorm development is expected, initially across the lower Michigan and potentially into parts of Ohio, and then expanding southwestward across Indiana, Illinois, and into Missouri. Although the stronger deep-layer shear will largely remain to the cool side of the front, modest westerly mid-level flow of 20-25 kts will favor loosely organized storms, with some potential for upscale growth/clustering. Strong/isolated damaging gusts and perhaps severe hail will be possible. While risk should diminish after dark, convection -- and very limited risk with a couple of stronger storms -- may continue well into the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 08/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LAKE HURON AND ERIE VICINITY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe storms will be possible from Lakes Huron and Erie southwestward into the Midwest Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue moving slowly eastward out of the north-central U.S. across the Great Lakes and Midwest on Friday, with the more vigorous portion of the trough expected to eject northeastward across western Ontario into the Hudson Bay region. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to continue eastward across the Great Lakes, southeastward across the Midwest, and slowly southward across the southern Plains. By the end of the period, the front should extend from the Lower Great Lakes west-southwestward across the Ohio Valley, and into Oklahoma and northern Texas. ...Lower Michigan/northern Ohio/northwestern Pennsylvania across the Midwest... Moderate destabilization is expected in tandem with afternoon heating ahead of the cold front, from Lower Michigan west-southwestward across northern Illinois and Missouri, and southward across the warm sector. As the front slowly advances, scattered thunderstorm development is expected, initially across the lower Michigan and potentially into parts of Ohio, and then expanding southwestward across Indiana, Illinois, and into Missouri. Although the stronger deep-layer shear will largely remain to the cool side of the front, modest westerly mid-level flow of 20-25 kts will favor loosely organized storms, with some potential for upscale growth/clustering. Strong/isolated damaging gusts and perhaps severe hail will be possible. While risk should diminish after dark, convection -- and very limited risk with a couple of stronger storms -- may continue well into the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 08/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LAKE HURON AND ERIE VICINITY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe storms will be possible from Lakes Huron and Erie southwestward into the Midwest Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue moving slowly eastward out of the north-central U.S. across the Great Lakes and Midwest on Friday, with the more vigorous portion of the trough expected to eject northeastward across western Ontario into the Hudson Bay region. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to continue eastward across the Great Lakes, southeastward across the Midwest, and slowly southward across the southern Plains. By the end of the period, the front should extend from the Lower Great Lakes west-southwestward across the Ohio Valley, and into Oklahoma and northern Texas. ...Lower Michigan/northern Ohio/northwestern Pennsylvania across the Midwest... Moderate destabilization is expected in tandem with afternoon heating ahead of the cold front, from Lower Michigan west-southwestward across northern Illinois and Missouri, and southward across the warm sector. As the front slowly advances, scattered thunderstorm development is expected, initially across the lower Michigan and potentially into parts of Ohio, and then expanding southwestward across Indiana, Illinois, and into Missouri. Although the stronger deep-layer shear will largely remain to the cool side of the front, modest westerly mid-level flow of 20-25 kts will favor loosely organized storms, with some potential for upscale growth/clustering. Strong/isolated damaging gusts and perhaps severe hail will be possible. While risk should diminish after dark, convection -- and very limited risk with a couple of stronger storms -- may continue well into the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 08/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley to the central Plains. A few severe storms also will be possible over portions of the mid-Atlantic region. ...Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley... Southern portions of a strong upper trough, currently located over the northern Rockies, will eject across the Dakotas this afternoon. As 70-80kt 500mb speed max translates through the base of the trough across ND, primary upper low will track across southern AB into northwestern ON during the latter half of the period. Latest model guidance suggests very strong 12hr mid-level height falls just north of the international border, with more modest falls into the upper Mississippi Valley by 29/00z. Strong low-level warm advection will likely prove instrumental in one or more thunderstorm clusters over eastern ND/northwestern MN at the start of the period. LLJ responsible for this activity will shift into northwestern ON during the day, and this warm-advection activity should lift north of the border as well. However, strong boundary-layer heating will occur across eastern NE into extreme southwest MN by early afternoon. This will aid instability, and CINH will begin to weaken along the front, as surface temperatures rise into the mid 80s across central MN. NAM forecast sounding for KLJF at 22z is thermodynamically impressive with MLCAPE around 5400 J/kg and 0-6km shear approaching 30kt. 30-35kt deep-layer shear is expected along the northern extent of the stronger buoyancy. As a result, supercells are expected to develop along/ahead of the cold front, supported aloft by the upstream short wave. Large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are the expected hazards with these storms. Scattered convection, with a more-isolated severe threat, is forecast along the trailing cold front across the central Plains as readings breach convective temperatures later in the afternoon. Wind profiles at lower latitudes are not very strong, so this activity will be multicellular and less organized. Even so, some risk for hail/wind can be expected into the evening hours. ...Middle Atlantic Region... Dominant surface anticyclone over southeastern Canada will shift across ON/QC, which will allow a synoptic front to drape itself across the Middle Atlantic during the afternoon. This boundary will focus scattered thunderstorms as convective temperatures are breached by mid afternoon. Wind profiles favor mostly disorganized pulse-multicell updrafts. These storms will move slowly southeast with an attendant risk for wind and perhaps some hail. Robust updrafts will be strongly diurnally driven. ..Darrow/Jirak.. 08/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley to the central Plains. A few severe storms also will be possible over portions of the mid-Atlantic region. ...Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley... Southern portions of a strong upper trough, currently located over the northern Rockies, will eject across the Dakotas this afternoon. As 70-80kt 500mb speed max translates through the base of the trough across ND, primary upper low will track across southern AB into northwestern ON during the latter half of the period. Latest model guidance suggests very strong 12hr mid-level height falls just north of the international border, with more modest falls into the upper Mississippi Valley by 29/00z. Strong low-level warm advection will likely prove instrumental in one or more thunderstorm clusters over eastern ND/northwestern MN at the start of the period. LLJ responsible for this activity will shift into northwestern ON during the day, and this warm-advection activity should lift north of the border as well. However, strong boundary-layer heating will occur across eastern NE into extreme southwest MN by early afternoon. This will aid instability, and CINH will begin to weaken along the front, as surface temperatures rise into the mid 80s across central MN. NAM forecast sounding for KLJF at 22z is thermodynamically impressive with MLCAPE around 5400 J/kg and 0-6km shear approaching 30kt. 30-35kt deep-layer shear is expected along the northern extent of the stronger buoyancy. As a result, supercells are expected to develop along/ahead of the cold front, supported aloft by the upstream short wave. Large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are the expected hazards with these storms. Scattered convection, with a more-isolated severe threat, is forecast along the trailing cold front across the central Plains as readings breach convective temperatures later in the afternoon. Wind profiles at lower latitudes are not very strong, so this activity will be multicellular and less organized. Even so, some risk for hail/wind can be expected into the evening hours. ...Middle Atlantic Region... Dominant surface anticyclone over southeastern Canada will shift across ON/QC, which will allow a synoptic front to drape itself across the Middle Atlantic during the afternoon. This boundary will focus scattered thunderstorms as convective temperatures are breached by mid afternoon. Wind profiles favor mostly disorganized pulse-multicell updrafts. These storms will move slowly southeast with an attendant risk for wind and perhaps some hail. Robust updrafts will be strongly diurnally driven. ..Darrow/Jirak.. 08/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley to the central Plains. A few severe storms also will be possible over portions of the mid-Atlantic region. ...Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley... Southern portions of a strong upper trough, currently located over the northern Rockies, will eject across the Dakotas this afternoon. As 70-80kt 500mb speed max translates through the base of the trough across ND, primary upper low will track across southern AB into northwestern ON during the latter half of the period. Latest model guidance suggests very strong 12hr mid-level height falls just north of the international border, with more modest falls into the upper Mississippi Valley by 29/00z. Strong low-level warm advection will likely prove instrumental in one or more thunderstorm clusters over eastern ND/northwestern MN at the start of the period. LLJ responsible for this activity will shift into northwestern ON during the day, and this warm-advection activity should lift north of the border as well. However, strong boundary-layer heating will occur across eastern NE into extreme southwest MN by early afternoon. This will aid instability, and CINH will begin to weaken along the front, as surface temperatures rise into the mid 80s across central MN. NAM forecast sounding for KLJF at 22z is thermodynamically impressive with MLCAPE around 5400 J/kg and 0-6km shear approaching 30kt. 30-35kt deep-layer shear is expected along the northern extent of the stronger buoyancy. As a result, supercells are expected to develop along/ahead of the cold front, supported aloft by the upstream short wave. Large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are the expected hazards with these storms. Scattered convection, with a more-isolated severe threat, is forecast along the trailing cold front across the central Plains as readings breach convective temperatures later in the afternoon. Wind profiles at lower latitudes are not very strong, so this activity will be multicellular and less organized. Even so, some risk for hail/wind can be expected into the evening hours. ...Middle Atlantic Region... Dominant surface anticyclone over southeastern Canada will shift across ON/QC, which will allow a synoptic front to drape itself across the Middle Atlantic during the afternoon. This boundary will focus scattered thunderstorms as convective temperatures are breached by mid afternoon. Wind profiles favor mostly disorganized pulse-multicell updrafts. These storms will move slowly southeast with an attendant risk for wind and perhaps some hail. Robust updrafts will be strongly diurnally driven. ..Darrow/Jirak.. 08/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley to the central Plains. A few severe storms also will be possible over portions of the mid-Atlantic region. ...Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley... Southern portions of a strong upper trough, currently located over the northern Rockies, will eject across the Dakotas this afternoon. As 70-80kt 500mb speed max translates through the base of the trough across ND, primary upper low will track across southern AB into northwestern ON during the latter half of the period. Latest model guidance suggests very strong 12hr mid-level height falls just north of the international border, with more modest falls into the upper Mississippi Valley by 29/00z. Strong low-level warm advection will likely prove instrumental in one or more thunderstorm clusters over eastern ND/northwestern MN at the start of the period. LLJ responsible for this activity will shift into northwestern ON during the day, and this warm-advection activity should lift north of the border as well. However, strong boundary-layer heating will occur across eastern NE into extreme southwest MN by early afternoon. This will aid instability, and CINH will begin to weaken along the front, as surface temperatures rise into the mid 80s across central MN. NAM forecast sounding for KLJF at 22z is thermodynamically impressive with MLCAPE around 5400 J/kg and 0-6km shear approaching 30kt. 30-35kt deep-layer shear is expected along the northern extent of the stronger buoyancy. As a result, supercells are expected to develop along/ahead of the cold front, supported aloft by the upstream short wave. Large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are the expected hazards with these storms. Scattered convection, with a more-isolated severe threat, is forecast along the trailing cold front across the central Plains as readings breach convective temperatures later in the afternoon. Wind profiles at lower latitudes are not very strong, so this activity will be multicellular and less organized. Even so, some risk for hail/wind can be expected into the evening hours. ...Middle Atlantic Region... Dominant surface anticyclone over southeastern Canada will shift across ON/QC, which will allow a synoptic front to drape itself across the Middle Atlantic during the afternoon. This boundary will focus scattered thunderstorms as convective temperatures are breached by mid afternoon. Wind profiles favor mostly disorganized pulse-multicell updrafts. These storms will move slowly southeast with an attendant risk for wind and perhaps some hail. Robust updrafts will be strongly diurnally driven. ..Darrow/Jirak.. 08/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley to the central Plains. A few severe storms also will be possible over portions of the mid-Atlantic region. ...Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley... Southern portions of a strong upper trough, currently located over the northern Rockies, will eject across the Dakotas this afternoon. As 70-80kt 500mb speed max translates through the base of the trough across ND, primary upper low will track across southern AB into northwestern ON during the latter half of the period. Latest model guidance suggests very strong 12hr mid-level height falls just north of the international border, with more modest falls into the upper Mississippi Valley by 29/00z. Strong low-level warm advection will likely prove instrumental in one or more thunderstorm clusters over eastern ND/northwestern MN at the start of the period. LLJ responsible for this activity will shift into northwestern ON during the day, and this warm-advection activity should lift north of the border as well. However, strong boundary-layer heating will occur across eastern NE into extreme southwest MN by early afternoon. This will aid instability, and CINH will begin to weaken along the front, as surface temperatures rise into the mid 80s across central MN. NAM forecast sounding for KLJF at 22z is thermodynamically impressive with MLCAPE around 5400 J/kg and 0-6km shear approaching 30kt. 30-35kt deep-layer shear is expected along the northern extent of the stronger buoyancy. As a result, supercells are expected to develop along/ahead of the cold front, supported aloft by the upstream short wave. Large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are the expected hazards with these storms. Scattered convection, with a more-isolated severe threat, is forecast along the trailing cold front across the central Plains as readings breach convective temperatures later in the afternoon. Wind profiles at lower latitudes are not very strong, so this activity will be multicellular and less organized. Even so, some risk for hail/wind can be expected into the evening hours. ...Middle Atlantic Region... Dominant surface anticyclone over southeastern Canada will shift across ON/QC, which will allow a synoptic front to drape itself across the Middle Atlantic during the afternoon. This boundary will focus scattered thunderstorms as convective temperatures are breached by mid afternoon. Wind profiles favor mostly disorganized pulse-multicell updrafts. These storms will move slowly southeast with an attendant risk for wind and perhaps some hail. Robust updrafts will be strongly diurnally driven. ..Darrow/Jirak.. 08/29/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 290523
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Aug 28 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Hector, located about midway between the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula and the Hawaiian Islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

Heat and drought prompted several Tennessee cities to enact outdoor burn bans to reduce the likelihood of fires. Cities with bans included La Vergne, Murfreesboro, Gallatin, Brentwood, Hendersonville, Dickson and Nashville. NewsChannel 5 Nashville (Tenn.), Aug 29, 2024 The Murfreesboro Fire Rescue Department's fire marshal put a mandatory ban on burning in the city limits until further notice. The ban was in response to drought and dry vegetation. WGNS 1450-AM & 101.9 100.5-FM (Murfreesboro, Tenn.), Aug 29, 2024

MD 2026 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 661... FOR PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2026 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0941 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Areas affected...parts of north central South Dakota and south central North Dakota Concerning...Tornado Watch 661... Valid 290241Z - 290445Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 661 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development, in general, is beginning to weaken, with the risk for tornadoes likely to become increasingly negligible through 10-11 PM CDT. Some risk for severe hail and, perhaps, localized strong wind gusts may persist into the overnight hours across parts of the central and eastern Dakotas. However, a new severe weather watch is not currently anticipated. DISCUSSION...Ongoing convection appears to be undergoing notable weakening trends, including the the isolated supercell just south of the state border vicinity, across eastern Campbell county South Dakota. This has occurred as the loss of daytime heating has resulted in increasing inhibition for the seasonably moist boundary parcels near the surface trough across the central Dakotas. However, forcing associated with strong low-level warm advection may maintain at least a severe hail threat with the Campbell county storm as it accelerates north-northeastward, and becomes increasingly rooted above the boundary layer during the next hour or two. Strongest potential instability remains focused near a weak surface low, centered within the surface trough to the north-northwest of Pierre SD. However, as the slow moving upstream low, now centered over southern Saskatchewan just to the north of the international border, continues east-northeastward, models suggest that warming elevated mixed-layer air will gradually advect across the central North and South Dakota state border area through 04-05Z. As this occurs, the potential for renewed thunderstorm development rooted within the unstable boundary layer is expected to diminish. ..Kerr.. 08/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS... LAT...LON 45960044 47149937 46599839 45019952 45030058 45960044 Read more

WW 0661 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 661 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW ABR TO 30 SSE MBG TO 10 WSW MBG TO 10 N MBG TO 35 NE BIS TO 45 WSW DVL. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 661 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 29/04Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2026. ..KERR..08/29/24 ATTN...WFO...BIS...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 661 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC029-043-047-051-093-103-290400- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EMMONS KIDDER LOGAN MCINTOSH STUTSMAN WELLS SDC021-045-089-129-290400- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMPBELL EDMUNDS MCPHERSON WALWORTH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 661 TORNADO ND SD 282140Z - 290400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 661 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 440 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of South central North Dakota North central South Dakota * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 440 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Supercell development is expected soon near the central North Dakota/South Dakota border, with additional storm development in the next 1-3 hours farther north and south in the watch area. The storm environment initially favors supercells with tornadoes and very large hail (up to 3 inches in diameter), while some clustering of storms later this evening will lead to some increase in the potential for damaging winds of 60-70 mph. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles east northeast of Garrison ND to 80 miles south southeast of Mobridge SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 25015. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0661 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 661 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW ABR TO 35 NNE PIR TO 50 SW MBG TO 10 NNW MBG TO 20 NE BIS TO 50 SE MOT. ..KERR..08/29/24 ATTN...WFO...BIS...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 661 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC029-043-047-051-093-103-290340- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EMMONS KIDDER LOGAN MCINTOSH STUTSMAN WELLS SDC021-031-041-045-049-089-107-129-290340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMPBELL CORSON DEWEY EDMUNDS FAULK MCPHERSON POTTER WALWORTH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 29 Aug 2024 02:34:08 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 29 Aug 2024 03:34:30 GMT

Issued at 500 PM HST Wed Aug 28 2024 142 WTPZ43 KNHC 290232 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082024 500 PM HST Wed Aug 28 2024 Satellite imagery this evening shows that Hector is still losing organization. The low-level center is now well-removed to the southwest of the convection, and there are indications that a new vorticity center is trying to form near the remaining convection. This development is distorting the circulation and stretching it into a northeast-southwest oriented trough. Most of the various satellite intensity estimates are now in the 30-35 kt range, and based on them the initial intensity is reduced to a possibly generous 35 kt. A combination of cool sea surface temperatures near the forecast track, dry air entrainment, and southwesterly vertical wind shear should cause Hector to weaken further. The new intensity forecast is based on the global models, and it has the system weakening to a remnant low pressure area in 24 h or less followed by degeneration to a trough between 36-48 h. However, given current trends it is possible that Hector could weaken to a trough at any time. Due to the disorganization, the initial motion is uncertain and is estimated to be 270/10 kt. A general westward motion should continue until the system dissipates. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 17.2N 134.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 17.3N 135.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 17.3N 138.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 30/1200Z 17.3N 141.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 29 2024 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 290232 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082024 0300 UTC THU AUG 29 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 29 2024 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 290231 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082024 0300 UTC THU AUG 29 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 134.2W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 134.2W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 133.7W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 17.3N 135.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 17.3N 138.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 17.3N 141.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 134.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 500 PM HST Wed Aug 28 2024 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 290231 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hector Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082024 500 PM HST Wed Aug 28 2024 ...HECTOR STILL WEAKENING... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 134.2W ABOUT 1380 MI...2220 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hector was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 134.2 West. Hector is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are now near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Hector is expected to become a remnant low on Thursday and dissipate on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...HECTOR STILL WEAKENING... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON THURSDAY... As of 5:00 PM HST Wed Aug 28 the center of Hector was located near 17.2, -134.2 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.