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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe risk may evolve across portions of the northeast/central Appalachians/Upper Ohio Valley area Saturday. ...Synopsis... A relatively deep upper-level trough is forecast to remain in place from eastern Canada into the Great Lakes and Northeast on Saturday. Within the large-scale trough, a weak shortwave may move through parts of the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley, while a stronger upstream shortwave will move toward the upper Great Lakes region. A cold front is expected to move eastward across parts of the Northeast and Ohio Valley. A stronger cold front will move through parts of the northern Plains and upper Great Lakes, in association with the southeastward-moving shortwave trough. ...Parts of the upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop Saturday along/ahead of the front across parts of NY/PA into the upper Ohio Valley region. There will be some displacement of stronger flow/shear to the north with stronger instability to the south, but the environment will likely become at least marginally supportive of organized convection across the region during the afternoon. A few stronger cells and/or small clusters may evolve with time and pose a threat of locally damaging wind and perhaps some isolated hail. ...Upper Great Lakes vicinity... Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the extent of destabilization near the strong front that is forecast to move southeastward across the upper Great Lakes region. However, favorable ascent attendant to the shortwave trough may aid in at least isolated convective development along the front during the afternoon/evening. Strengthening low/midlevel flow could support some severe threat with any deeper convection, though this potential remains uncertain and will be dependent on the magnitude of prefrontal destabilization. ..Dean.. 08/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe risk may evolve across portions of the northeast/central Appalachians/Upper Ohio Valley area Saturday. ...Synopsis... A relatively deep upper-level trough is forecast to remain in place from eastern Canada into the Great Lakes and Northeast on Saturday. Within the large-scale trough, a weak shortwave may move through parts of the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley, while a stronger upstream shortwave will move toward the upper Great Lakes region. A cold front is expected to move eastward across parts of the Northeast and Ohio Valley. A stronger cold front will move through parts of the northern Plains and upper Great Lakes, in association with the southeastward-moving shortwave trough. ...Parts of the upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop Saturday along/ahead of the front across parts of NY/PA into the upper Ohio Valley region. There will be some displacement of stronger flow/shear to the north with stronger instability to the south, but the environment will likely become at least marginally supportive of organized convection across the region during the afternoon. A few stronger cells and/or small clusters may evolve with time and pose a threat of locally damaging wind and perhaps some isolated hail. ...Upper Great Lakes vicinity... Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the extent of destabilization near the strong front that is forecast to move southeastward across the upper Great Lakes region. However, favorable ascent attendant to the shortwave trough may aid in at least isolated convective development along the front during the afternoon/evening. Strengthening low/midlevel flow could support some severe threat with any deeper convection, though this potential remains uncertain and will be dependent on the magnitude of prefrontal destabilization. ..Dean.. 08/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe risk may evolve across portions of the northeast/central Appalachians/Upper Ohio Valley area Saturday. ...Synopsis... A relatively deep upper-level trough is forecast to remain in place from eastern Canada into the Great Lakes and Northeast on Saturday. Within the large-scale trough, a weak shortwave may move through parts of the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley, while a stronger upstream shortwave will move toward the upper Great Lakes region. A cold front is expected to move eastward across parts of the Northeast and Ohio Valley. A stronger cold front will move through parts of the northern Plains and upper Great Lakes, in association with the southeastward-moving shortwave trough. ...Parts of the upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop Saturday along/ahead of the front across parts of NY/PA into the upper Ohio Valley region. There will be some displacement of stronger flow/shear to the north with stronger instability to the south, but the environment will likely become at least marginally supportive of organized convection across the region during the afternoon. A few stronger cells and/or small clusters may evolve with time and pose a threat of locally damaging wind and perhaps some isolated hail. ...Upper Great Lakes vicinity... Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the extent of destabilization near the strong front that is forecast to move southeastward across the upper Great Lakes region. However, favorable ascent attendant to the shortwave trough may aid in at least isolated convective development along the front during the afternoon/evening. Strengthening low/midlevel flow could support some severe threat with any deeper convection, though this potential remains uncertain and will be dependent on the magnitude of prefrontal destabilization. ..Dean.. 08/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe risk may evolve across portions of the northeast/central Appalachians/Upper Ohio Valley area Saturday. ...Synopsis... A relatively deep upper-level trough is forecast to remain in place from eastern Canada into the Great Lakes and Northeast on Saturday. Within the large-scale trough, a weak shortwave may move through parts of the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley, while a stronger upstream shortwave will move toward the upper Great Lakes region. A cold front is expected to move eastward across parts of the Northeast and Ohio Valley. A stronger cold front will move through parts of the northern Plains and upper Great Lakes, in association with the southeastward-moving shortwave trough. ...Parts of the upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop Saturday along/ahead of the front across parts of NY/PA into the upper Ohio Valley region. There will be some displacement of stronger flow/shear to the north with stronger instability to the south, but the environment will likely become at least marginally supportive of organized convection across the region during the afternoon. A few stronger cells and/or small clusters may evolve with time and pose a threat of locally damaging wind and perhaps some isolated hail. ...Upper Great Lakes vicinity... Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the extent of destabilization near the strong front that is forecast to move southeastward across the upper Great Lakes region. However, favorable ascent attendant to the shortwave trough may aid in at least isolated convective development along the front during the afternoon/evening. Strengthening low/midlevel flow could support some severe threat with any deeper convection, though this potential remains uncertain and will be dependent on the magnitude of prefrontal destabilization. ..Dean.. 08/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe risk may evolve across portions of the northeast/central Appalachians/Upper Ohio Valley area Saturday. ...Synopsis... A relatively deep upper-level trough is forecast to remain in place from eastern Canada into the Great Lakes and Northeast on Saturday. Within the large-scale trough, a weak shortwave may move through parts of the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley, while a stronger upstream shortwave will move toward the upper Great Lakes region. A cold front is expected to move eastward across parts of the Northeast and Ohio Valley. A stronger cold front will move through parts of the northern Plains and upper Great Lakes, in association with the southeastward-moving shortwave trough. ...Parts of the upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop Saturday along/ahead of the front across parts of NY/PA into the upper Ohio Valley region. There will be some displacement of stronger flow/shear to the north with stronger instability to the south, but the environment will likely become at least marginally supportive of organized convection across the region during the afternoon. A few stronger cells and/or small clusters may evolve with time and pose a threat of locally damaging wind and perhaps some isolated hail. ...Upper Great Lakes vicinity... Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the extent of destabilization near the strong front that is forecast to move southeastward across the upper Great Lakes region. However, favorable ascent attendant to the shortwave trough may aid in at least isolated convective development along the front during the afternoon/evening. Strengthening low/midlevel flow could support some severe threat with any deeper convection, though this potential remains uncertain and will be dependent on the magnitude of prefrontal destabilization. ..Dean.. 08/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe risk may evolve across portions of the northeast/central Appalachians/Upper Ohio Valley area Saturday. ...Synopsis... A relatively deep upper-level trough is forecast to remain in place from eastern Canada into the Great Lakes and Northeast on Saturday. Within the large-scale trough, a weak shortwave may move through parts of the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley, while a stronger upstream shortwave will move toward the upper Great Lakes region. A cold front is expected to move eastward across parts of the Northeast and Ohio Valley. A stronger cold front will move through parts of the northern Plains and upper Great Lakes, in association with the southeastward-moving shortwave trough. ...Parts of the upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop Saturday along/ahead of the front across parts of NY/PA into the upper Ohio Valley region. There will be some displacement of stronger flow/shear to the north with stronger instability to the south, but the environment will likely become at least marginally supportive of organized convection across the region during the afternoon. A few stronger cells and/or small clusters may evolve with time and pose a threat of locally damaging wind and perhaps some isolated hail. ...Upper Great Lakes vicinity... Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the extent of destabilization near the strong front that is forecast to move southeastward across the upper Great Lakes region. However, favorable ascent attendant to the shortwave trough may aid in at least isolated convective development along the front during the afternoon/evening. Strengthening low/midlevel flow could support some severe threat with any deeper convection, though this potential remains uncertain and will be dependent on the magnitude of prefrontal destabilization. ..Dean.. 08/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe risk may evolve across portions of the northeast/central Appalachians/Upper Ohio Valley area Saturday. ...Synopsis... A relatively deep upper-level trough is forecast to remain in place from eastern Canada into the Great Lakes and Northeast on Saturday. Within the large-scale trough, a weak shortwave may move through parts of the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley, while a stronger upstream shortwave will move toward the upper Great Lakes region. A cold front is expected to move eastward across parts of the Northeast and Ohio Valley. A stronger cold front will move through parts of the northern Plains and upper Great Lakes, in association with the southeastward-moving shortwave trough. ...Parts of the upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop Saturday along/ahead of the front across parts of NY/PA into the upper Ohio Valley region. There will be some displacement of stronger flow/shear to the north with stronger instability to the south, but the environment will likely become at least marginally supportive of organized convection across the region during the afternoon. A few stronger cells and/or small clusters may evolve with time and pose a threat of locally damaging wind and perhaps some isolated hail. ...Upper Great Lakes vicinity... Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the extent of destabilization near the strong front that is forecast to move southeastward across the upper Great Lakes region. However, favorable ascent attendant to the shortwave trough may aid in at least isolated convective development along the front during the afternoon/evening. Strengthening low/midlevel flow could support some severe threat with any deeper convection, though this potential remains uncertain and will be dependent on the magnitude of prefrontal destabilization. ..Dean.. 08/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe risk may evolve across portions of the northeast/central Appalachians/Upper Ohio Valley area Saturday. ...Synopsis... A relatively deep upper-level trough is forecast to remain in place from eastern Canada into the Great Lakes and Northeast on Saturday. Within the large-scale trough, a weak shortwave may move through parts of the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley, while a stronger upstream shortwave will move toward the upper Great Lakes region. A cold front is expected to move eastward across parts of the Northeast and Ohio Valley. A stronger cold front will move through parts of the northern Plains and upper Great Lakes, in association with the southeastward-moving shortwave trough. ...Parts of the upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop Saturday along/ahead of the front across parts of NY/PA into the upper Ohio Valley region. There will be some displacement of stronger flow/shear to the north with stronger instability to the south, but the environment will likely become at least marginally supportive of organized convection across the region during the afternoon. A few stronger cells and/or small clusters may evolve with time and pose a threat of locally damaging wind and perhaps some isolated hail. ...Upper Great Lakes vicinity... Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the extent of destabilization near the strong front that is forecast to move southeastward across the upper Great Lakes region. However, favorable ascent attendant to the shortwave trough may aid in at least isolated convective development along the front during the afternoon/evening. Strengthening low/midlevel flow could support some severe threat with any deeper convection, though this potential remains uncertain and will be dependent on the magnitude of prefrontal destabilization. ..Dean.. 08/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe risk may evolve across portions of the northeast/central Appalachians/Upper Ohio Valley area Saturday. ...Synopsis... A relatively deep upper-level trough is forecast to remain in place from eastern Canada into the Great Lakes and Northeast on Saturday. Within the large-scale trough, a weak shortwave may move through parts of the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley, while a stronger upstream shortwave will move toward the upper Great Lakes region. A cold front is expected to move eastward across parts of the Northeast and Ohio Valley. A stronger cold front will move through parts of the northern Plains and upper Great Lakes, in association with the southeastward-moving shortwave trough. ...Parts of the upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop Saturday along/ahead of the front across parts of NY/PA into the upper Ohio Valley region. There will be some displacement of stronger flow/shear to the north with stronger instability to the south, but the environment will likely become at least marginally supportive of organized convection across the region during the afternoon. A few stronger cells and/or small clusters may evolve with time and pose a threat of locally damaging wind and perhaps some isolated hail. ...Upper Great Lakes vicinity... Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the extent of destabilization near the strong front that is forecast to move southeastward across the upper Great Lakes region. However, favorable ascent attendant to the shortwave trough may aid in at least isolated convective development along the front during the afternoon/evening. Strengthening low/midlevel flow could support some severe threat with any deeper convection, though this potential remains uncertain and will be dependent on the magnitude of prefrontal destabilization. ..Dean.. 08/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe risk may evolve across portions of the northeast/central Appalachians/Upper Ohio Valley area Saturday. ...Synopsis... A relatively deep upper-level trough is forecast to remain in place from eastern Canada into the Great Lakes and Northeast on Saturday. Within the large-scale trough, a weak shortwave may move through parts of the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley, while a stronger upstream shortwave will move toward the upper Great Lakes region. A cold front is expected to move eastward across parts of the Northeast and Ohio Valley. A stronger cold front will move through parts of the northern Plains and upper Great Lakes, in association with the southeastward-moving shortwave trough. ...Parts of the upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop Saturday along/ahead of the front across parts of NY/PA into the upper Ohio Valley region. There will be some displacement of stronger flow/shear to the north with stronger instability to the south, but the environment will likely become at least marginally supportive of organized convection across the region during the afternoon. A few stronger cells and/or small clusters may evolve with time and pose a threat of locally damaging wind and perhaps some isolated hail. ...Upper Great Lakes vicinity... Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the extent of destabilization near the strong front that is forecast to move southeastward across the upper Great Lakes region. However, favorable ascent attendant to the shortwave trough may aid in at least isolated convective development along the front during the afternoon/evening. Strengthening low/midlevel flow could support some severe threat with any deeper convection, though this potential remains uncertain and will be dependent on the magnitude of prefrontal destabilization. ..Dean.. 08/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe risk may evolve across portions of the northeast/central Appalachians/Upper Ohio Valley area Saturday. ...Synopsis... A relatively deep upper-level trough is forecast to remain in place from eastern Canada into the Great Lakes and Northeast on Saturday. Within the large-scale trough, a weak shortwave may move through parts of the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley, while a stronger upstream shortwave will move toward the upper Great Lakes region. A cold front is expected to move eastward across parts of the Northeast and Ohio Valley. A stronger cold front will move through parts of the northern Plains and upper Great Lakes, in association with the southeastward-moving shortwave trough. ...Parts of the upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop Saturday along/ahead of the front across parts of NY/PA into the upper Ohio Valley region. There will be some displacement of stronger flow/shear to the north with stronger instability to the south, but the environment will likely become at least marginally supportive of organized convection across the region during the afternoon. A few stronger cells and/or small clusters may evolve with time and pose a threat of locally damaging wind and perhaps some isolated hail. ...Upper Great Lakes vicinity... Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the extent of destabilization near the strong front that is forecast to move southeastward across the upper Great Lakes region. However, favorable ascent attendant to the shortwave trough may aid in at least isolated convective development along the front during the afternoon/evening. Strengthening low/midlevel flow could support some severe threat with any deeper convection, though this potential remains uncertain and will be dependent on the magnitude of prefrontal destabilization. ..Dean.. 08/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe risk may evolve across portions of the northeast/central Appalachians/Upper Ohio Valley area Saturday. ...Synopsis... A relatively deep upper-level trough is forecast to remain in place from eastern Canada into the Great Lakes and Northeast on Saturday. Within the large-scale trough, a weak shortwave may move through parts of the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley, while a stronger upstream shortwave will move toward the upper Great Lakes region. A cold front is expected to move eastward across parts of the Northeast and Ohio Valley. A stronger cold front will move through parts of the northern Plains and upper Great Lakes, in association with the southeastward-moving shortwave trough. ...Parts of the upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop Saturday along/ahead of the front across parts of NY/PA into the upper Ohio Valley region. There will be some displacement of stronger flow/shear to the north with stronger instability to the south, but the environment will likely become at least marginally supportive of organized convection across the region during the afternoon. A few stronger cells and/or small clusters may evolve with time and pose a threat of locally damaging wind and perhaps some isolated hail. ...Upper Great Lakes vicinity... Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the extent of destabilization near the strong front that is forecast to move southeastward across the upper Great Lakes region. However, favorable ascent attendant to the shortwave trough may aid in at least isolated convective development along the front during the afternoon/evening. Strengthening low/midlevel flow could support some severe threat with any deeper convection, though this potential remains uncertain and will be dependent on the magnitude of prefrontal destabilization. ..Dean.. 08/29/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Aug 29 19:16:01 UTC 2024.

A grass fire in Henderson County was caused by a tire that fell off a semitruck. The southern part of the area was in severe drought conditions. The Henderson County Fire Department continued to discourage any outdoor burning, warning that violations can be costly. NBC39 (Jackson, Tenn.), Aug 29, 2024

MD 2028 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 2028 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Areas affected...central Pennsylvania into western and central Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 291720Z - 291915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms will develop from central Pennsylvania southwestward along the Blue Ridge, with locally strong to damaging gusts possible into surrounding areas to the east later today. DISCUSSION...A moist and unstable air mass is in place today south and west of the New England surface ridge, and despite slow drying from the east. Visible imagery clearly indicates a very moist air mass with expansive cumulus fields over much of PA and southwestward along the Blue Ridge. GPS PWAT sensors show values of 1.75-2.00" from eastern VA/DelMarVa northwestward into central PA. Continued heating will lead to accelerated development over the higher terrain of eastern WV and western VA over the next few hours, with additional activity expected over much of central PA where weak convergence exists. Shear will remain weak over most of the area, with propagating clusters of storms expected to move east/southeast into the remainder of central and northern VA and parts of MD. Locally damaging gusts will be possible given the favorable timing of the development with peak heating, and as outflow pushes into regions with steep low-level lapse rates later this afternoon. ..Jewell/Guyer.. 08/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... LAT...LON 37588049 37968048 38637995 39737939 40667907 41197904 41537871 41457786 41137764 40337735 39147726 38647739 38287763 37997810 37707854 37587908 37487957 37448026 37588049 Read more

Record heat over the summer and the lack of rainfall led officials to put in place Stage 1 fire restrictions for the Carson and Bridgeport ranger districts in the Humboldt-Toiyabe National Forest. Summer was the sixth driest on record for Minden with data dating back to 1906. The only measurable precipitation since May 15 was 0.02 inches that was received on Aug. 4. The Record-Courier (Minden, Nev.), Aug 29, 2024

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across eastern lower Michigan on Friday, with more isolated strong/severe storms into parts of the Midwest, and also across parts of the Carolinas and Virginia into northeast Georgia. ...Synopsis... The southern portion of an relatively deep upper-level trough will move across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region on Friday, with the strongest part of this trough and related mid/upper-level flow expected to remain north of the international border. A cold front trailing from a deep surface low near Hudson Bay will move across parts of the Great Lakes, Midwest, mid/upper MS Valley, and south-central Great Plains. ...Parts of lower MI and OH into IN/IL/MO... Diurnal heating and relatively rich moisture will support moderate to locally strong destabilization along/ahead of the cold front during the afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible across a broad region from lower MI and OH into the Midwest and parts of the Plains. Stronger deep-layer flow/shear will be generally displaced to the north of the front, though modest west/southwesterly flow could support isolated strong storms capable of locally damaging gusts and possibly hail. Within the broader region of isolated severe potential, a somewhat more favorable environment will be possible in the vicinity of eastern lower MI, where relatively greater low/midlevel flow (generally 20-30 kt at 850 mb and 30-40 kt at 700 mb) is forecast within the prefrontal environment. A few more-organized clusters or line segments appear possible in this area, with an attendant damaging-wind threat. A 15% wind area has been added where confidence is currently highest in the overlap of greater storm coverage and somewhat stronger flow. ...NC/VA into the southern ... Scattered thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon across much NC and southern VA into the southern Blue Ridge vicinity, within a moist and unstable environment. Development will tend to be focused near the sea breeze, any remnant outflow boundary from D1/Thursday convection, and across the higher terrain. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain weak, which will tend to limit storm organization. However, the favorable thermodynamic profile will support a threat of locally damaging outflow winds. ..Dean.. 08/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across eastern lower Michigan on Friday, with more isolated strong/severe storms into parts of the Midwest, and also across parts of the Carolinas and Virginia into northeast Georgia. ...Synopsis... The southern portion of an relatively deep upper-level trough will move across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region on Friday, with the strongest part of this trough and related mid/upper-level flow expected to remain north of the international border. A cold front trailing from a deep surface low near Hudson Bay will move across parts of the Great Lakes, Midwest, mid/upper MS Valley, and south-central Great Plains. ...Parts of lower MI and OH into IN/IL/MO... Diurnal heating and relatively rich moisture will support moderate to locally strong destabilization along/ahead of the cold front during the afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible across a broad region from lower MI and OH into the Midwest and parts of the Plains. Stronger deep-layer flow/shear will be generally displaced to the north of the front, though modest west/southwesterly flow could support isolated strong storms capable of locally damaging gusts and possibly hail. Within the broader region of isolated severe potential, a somewhat more favorable environment will be possible in the vicinity of eastern lower MI, where relatively greater low/midlevel flow (generally 20-30 kt at 850 mb and 30-40 kt at 700 mb) is forecast within the prefrontal environment. A few more-organized clusters or line segments appear possible in this area, with an attendant damaging-wind threat. A 15% wind area has been added where confidence is currently highest in the overlap of greater storm coverage and somewhat stronger flow. ...NC/VA into the southern ... Scattered thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon across much NC and southern VA into the southern Blue Ridge vicinity, within a moist and unstable environment. Development will tend to be focused near the sea breeze, any remnant outflow boundary from D1/Thursday convection, and across the higher terrain. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain weak, which will tend to limit storm organization. However, the favorable thermodynamic profile will support a threat of locally damaging outflow winds. ..Dean.. 08/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across eastern lower Michigan on Friday, with more isolated strong/severe storms into parts of the Midwest, and also across parts of the Carolinas and Virginia into northeast Georgia. ...Synopsis... The southern portion of an relatively deep upper-level trough will move across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region on Friday, with the strongest part of this trough and related mid/upper-level flow expected to remain north of the international border. A cold front trailing from a deep surface low near Hudson Bay will move across parts of the Great Lakes, Midwest, mid/upper MS Valley, and south-central Great Plains. ...Parts of lower MI and OH into IN/IL/MO... Diurnal heating and relatively rich moisture will support moderate to locally strong destabilization along/ahead of the cold front during the afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible across a broad region from lower MI and OH into the Midwest and parts of the Plains. Stronger deep-layer flow/shear will be generally displaced to the north of the front, though modest west/southwesterly flow could support isolated strong storms capable of locally damaging gusts and possibly hail. Within the broader region of isolated severe potential, a somewhat more favorable environment will be possible in the vicinity of eastern lower MI, where relatively greater low/midlevel flow (generally 20-30 kt at 850 mb and 30-40 kt at 700 mb) is forecast within the prefrontal environment. A few more-organized clusters or line segments appear possible in this area, with an attendant damaging-wind threat. A 15% wind area has been added where confidence is currently highest in the overlap of greater storm coverage and somewhat stronger flow. ...NC/VA into the southern ... Scattered thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon across much NC and southern VA into the southern Blue Ridge vicinity, within a moist and unstable environment. Development will tend to be focused near the sea breeze, any remnant outflow boundary from D1/Thursday convection, and across the higher terrain. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain weak, which will tend to limit storm organization. However, the favorable thermodynamic profile will support a threat of locally damaging outflow winds. ..Dean.. 08/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across eastern lower Michigan on Friday, with more isolated strong/severe storms into parts of the Midwest, and also across parts of the Carolinas and Virginia into northeast Georgia. ...Synopsis... The southern portion of an relatively deep upper-level trough will move across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region on Friday, with the strongest part of this trough and related mid/upper-level flow expected to remain north of the international border. A cold front trailing from a deep surface low near Hudson Bay will move across parts of the Great Lakes, Midwest, mid/upper MS Valley, and south-central Great Plains. ...Parts of lower MI and OH into IN/IL/MO... Diurnal heating and relatively rich moisture will support moderate to locally strong destabilization along/ahead of the cold front during the afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible across a broad region from lower MI and OH into the Midwest and parts of the Plains. Stronger deep-layer flow/shear will be generally displaced to the north of the front, though modest west/southwesterly flow could support isolated strong storms capable of locally damaging gusts and possibly hail. Within the broader region of isolated severe potential, a somewhat more favorable environment will be possible in the vicinity of eastern lower MI, where relatively greater low/midlevel flow (generally 20-30 kt at 850 mb and 30-40 kt at 700 mb) is forecast within the prefrontal environment. A few more-organized clusters or line segments appear possible in this area, with an attendant damaging-wind threat. A 15% wind area has been added where confidence is currently highest in the overlap of greater storm coverage and somewhat stronger flow. ...NC/VA into the southern ... Scattered thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon across much NC and southern VA into the southern Blue Ridge vicinity, within a moist and unstable environment. Development will tend to be focused near the sea breeze, any remnant outflow boundary from D1/Thursday convection, and across the higher terrain. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain weak, which will tend to limit storm organization. However, the favorable thermodynamic profile will support a threat of locally damaging outflow winds. ..Dean.. 08/29/2024 Read more