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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, a few severe, will spread across the Upper Midwest this evening. Some risk for isolated wind/hail persists through about 04-05z. ...01z Update... Strong, well-defined upper low is lifting northeast across southern MB early this evening. Trailing trough extends across the eastern Dakotas with the southern most portion affecting western KS. This feature is largely responsible for an elongated band of convection across the Upper Midwest, arcing ahead of a synoptic front into the central Plains. The most organized portion of this linear MCS is advancing across western WI/southeast MN/IA. LLJ will shift east across IA/WI this evening, suggesting this activity will remain organized for several hours. Most supercell structures have been disorganized along the line, and damaging winds will likely be the primary severe threat, as large hail has been mostly absent with this convection. Scattered-numerous thunderstorm clusters persist across the Middle Atlantic region this evening. 00z soundings from this region exhibit modest lapse rates, but seasonally high PW values. Wind profiles are marginally supportive of organized updrafts so this activity has likely peaked in intensity. Aside from an isolated damaging wind/hail report, the overall severe threat should gradually diminish over the next few hours. ..Darrow.. 08/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, a few severe, will spread across the Upper Midwest this evening. Some risk for isolated wind/hail persists through about 04-05z. ...01z Update... Strong, well-defined upper low is lifting northeast across southern MB early this evening. Trailing trough extends across the eastern Dakotas with the southern most portion affecting western KS. This feature is largely responsible for an elongated band of convection across the Upper Midwest, arcing ahead of a synoptic front into the central Plains. The most organized portion of this linear MCS is advancing across western WI/southeast MN/IA. LLJ will shift east across IA/WI this evening, suggesting this activity will remain organized for several hours. Most supercell structures have been disorganized along the line, and damaging winds will likely be the primary severe threat, as large hail has been mostly absent with this convection. Scattered-numerous thunderstorm clusters persist across the Middle Atlantic region this evening. 00z soundings from this region exhibit modest lapse rates, but seasonally high PW values. Wind profiles are marginally supportive of organized updrafts so this activity has likely peaked in intensity. Aside from an isolated damaging wind/hail report, the overall severe threat should gradually diminish over the next few hours. ..Darrow.. 08/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, a few severe, will spread across the Upper Midwest this evening. Some risk for isolated wind/hail persists through about 04-05z. ...01z Update... Strong, well-defined upper low is lifting northeast across southern MB early this evening. Trailing trough extends across the eastern Dakotas with the southern most portion affecting western KS. This feature is largely responsible for an elongated band of convection across the Upper Midwest, arcing ahead of a synoptic front into the central Plains. The most organized portion of this linear MCS is advancing across western WI/southeast MN/IA. LLJ will shift east across IA/WI this evening, suggesting this activity will remain organized for several hours. Most supercell structures have been disorganized along the line, and damaging winds will likely be the primary severe threat, as large hail has been mostly absent with this convection. Scattered-numerous thunderstorm clusters persist across the Middle Atlantic region this evening. 00z soundings from this region exhibit modest lapse rates, but seasonally high PW values. Wind profiles are marginally supportive of organized updrafts so this activity has likely peaked in intensity. Aside from an isolated damaging wind/hail report, the overall severe threat should gradually diminish over the next few hours. ..Darrow.. 08/30/2024 Read more

WW 0664 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0664 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0664 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0664 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0662 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 662 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW MCW TO 40 N MCW. ..KERR..08/30/24 ATTN...WFO...FSD...DLH...MPX...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 662 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC005-011-017-033-035-107-300140- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRON BUFFALO CHIPPEWA DUNN EAU CLAIRE RUSK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0663 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 663 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW CHO TO 40 S MRB TO 10 NNW DCA. ..KERR..08/30/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 663 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-300140- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC017-033-300140- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHARLES PRINCE GEORGES VAC013-047-059-061-099-137-153-177-179-510-600-610-630-683-685- 300140- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARLINGTON CULPEPER FAIRFAX FAUQUIER KING GEORGE ORANGE PRINCE WILLIAM SPOTSYLVANIA STAFFORD Read more

WW 0663 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 663 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW CHO TO 40 S MRB TO 10 NNW DCA. ..KERR..08/30/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 663 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-300140- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC017-033-300140- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHARLES PRINCE GEORGES VAC013-047-059-061-099-137-153-177-179-510-600-610-630-683-685- 300140- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARLINGTON CULPEPER FAIRFAX FAUQUIER KING GEORGE ORANGE PRINCE WILLIAM SPOTSYLVANIA STAFFORD Read more

WW 0663 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 663 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW CHO TO 40 S MRB TO 10 NNW DCA. ..KERR..08/30/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 663 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-300140- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC017-033-300140- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHARLES PRINCE GEORGES VAC013-047-059-061-099-137-153-177-179-510-600-610-630-683-685- 300140- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARLINGTON CULPEPER FAIRFAX FAUQUIER KING GEORGE ORANGE PRINCE WILLIAM SPOTSYLVANIA STAFFORD Read more

WW 0663 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 663 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW CHO TO 40 S MRB TO 10 NNW DCA. ..KERR..08/30/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 663 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-300140- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC017-033-300140- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHARLES PRINCE GEORGES VAC013-047-059-061-099-137-153-177-179-510-600-610-630-683-685- 300140- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARLINGTON CULPEPER FAIRFAX FAUQUIER KING GEORGE ORANGE PRINCE WILLIAM SPOTSYLVANIA STAFFORD Read more

WW 663 SEVERE TSTM DC MD PA VA WV CW 291955Z - 300300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 663 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 355 PM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Maryland South-Central Pennsylvania Northern Virginia Far Eastern West Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 355 PM until 1100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered storms will continue to increase, intensify, and potentially organize as they persist through early/mid-evening, with localized wind damage and some hail possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north northwest of Harrisburg PA to 20 miles south of Staunton VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 662... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29020. ...Guyer Read more

MD 2034 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 662... FOR PARTS OF EASTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 2034 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0537 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Areas affected...parts of eastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 662... Valid 292237Z - 300030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 662 continues. SUMMARY...An organized squall line may continue to pose a risk for strong to severe wind gusts and, perhaps, a brief tornado or two, before gradually weakening across north central Wisconsin by 8-9 PM CDT. DISCUSSION...Cold surface ridging has been slow to lose influence across much of northern and eastern Wisconsin into Michigan and the adjacent Great Lakes. Although modest destabilization is ongoing along the warm front east-southeast of Minneapolis into the Madison WI vicinity, it is not clear how much longer low-level southeasterly inflow will be sufficiently unstable to maintain the more organized segment of the squall line now in the process of advancing into northwestern and west central Wisconsin. However, cyclonic mesoscale lower/mid-level circulations still evident within the line might maintain a risk for damaging surface gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two another couple of hours, into the 00-01Z time. Given the 30-35+ kt northeasterly/easterly forward propagation, this risk may spread into portions of north central Wisconsin east of the severe weather watch area. However, it is not yet clear that a new severe weather watch will be needed. ..Kerr.. 08/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 45929231 46189231 46499110 45689024 44709048 43859137 44049255 44419279 45279233 45929231 Read more

MD 2034 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 662... FOR PARTS OF EASTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 2034 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0537 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Areas affected...parts of eastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 662... Valid 292237Z - 300030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 662 continues. SUMMARY...An organized squall line may continue to pose a risk for strong to severe wind gusts and, perhaps, a brief tornado or two, before gradually weakening across north central Wisconsin by 8-9 PM CDT. DISCUSSION...Cold surface ridging has been slow to lose influence across much of northern and eastern Wisconsin into Michigan and the adjacent Great Lakes. Although modest destabilization is ongoing along the warm front east-southeast of Minneapolis into the Madison WI vicinity, it is not clear how much longer low-level southeasterly inflow will be sufficiently unstable to maintain the more organized segment of the squall line now in the process of advancing into northwestern and west central Wisconsin. However, cyclonic mesoscale lower/mid-level circulations still evident within the line might maintain a risk for damaging surface gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two another couple of hours, into the 00-01Z time. Given the 30-35+ kt northeasterly/easterly forward propagation, this risk may spread into portions of north central Wisconsin east of the severe weather watch area. However, it is not yet clear that a new severe weather watch will be needed. ..Kerr.. 08/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 45929231 46189231 46499110 45689024 44709048 43859137 44049255 44419279 45279233 45929231 Read more

WW 0662 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 662 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..08/29/24 ATTN...WFO...FSD...DLH...MPX...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 662 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC047-049-300040- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FREEBORN GOODHUE WIC005-033-093-095-109-300040- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRON DUNN PIERCE POLK ST. CROIX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 662 SEVERE TSTM IA MN WI LS 291935Z - 300200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 662 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 235 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Iowa Minnesota Western and Northwest Wisconsin Lake Superior * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 235 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Storms will continue to intensify and move east-northeastward across the region through late afternoon and early evening. Damaging winds and isolated large hail are expected to be the most common hazards, although some tornado threat may also exist near a warm front. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northwest of Ely MN to 35 miles southwest of Fairmont MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 24030. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0663 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 663 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE EKN TO 20 NNE SHD TO 20 WNW DCA TO 10 ENE DCA. ..KERR..08/29/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 663 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-300040- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC017-033-300040- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHARLES PRINCE GEORGES VAC003-013-015-047-059-061-079-091-099-113-125-137-139-153-157- 165-177-179-510-540-600-610-630-660-683-685-790-820-300040- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBEMARLE ARLINGTON AUGUSTA CULPEPER FAIRFAX FAUQUIER GREENE HIGHLAND KING GEORGE Read more

WW 663 SEVERE TSTM DC MD PA VA WV CW 291955Z - 300300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 663 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 355 PM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Maryland South-Central Pennsylvania Northern Virginia Far Eastern West Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 355 PM until 1100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered storms will continue to increase, intensify, and potentially organize as they persist through early/mid-evening, with localized wind damage and some hail possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north northwest of Harrisburg PA to 20 miles south of Staunton VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 662... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29020. ...Guyer Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 292325
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Aug 29 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin

MD 2033 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 662...663... FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
Mesoscale Discussion 2033 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Areas affected...portions of the Mid Atlantic Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 662...663... Valid 292140Z - 292315Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 662, 663 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across WW663. Clusters of strong to severe storms should continue into this evening. Damaging wind gusts and occasional hail are possible. DISCUSSION...As of 2130 UTC, several clusters of strong to severe storms were ongoing across WW633. Over the past several hours, these clusters have produced occasional damaging wind gusts and isolated severe hail. The environment across the watch area and much of the Mid Atlantic remains unstable and modestly sheared with 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE from SPC mesoanalysis and 20-25 kt of effective shear via area VADs. Convective coverage may increase slightly over the next coupe of hours as various outflows interact with ongoing and developing clusters. Damaging winds remain the most likely threat, though isolated hail is possible with the stronger updrafts given the degree of buoyancy. Hi-res guidance and the latest observational trends suggest the highest storm coverage may remain over parts of the MD/VA/PA border region this evening. This may support a locally greater corridor of severe risk as some of the ongoing clusters may consolidate further. However, this is uncertain, given the lack of more meaningful broad-scale forcing, and the severe risk remains across much of the watch. ..Lyons.. 08/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... LAT...LON 38368005 40407883 40917810 41047685 40947631 40727597 40447586 40237589 39777606 38597654 38147688 37787786 37627831 37527937 37588006 38368005 Read more

WW 0662 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 662 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S FRM TO 20 NE MKT TO 25 NNE MSP TO 60 ENE STC TO 35 WSW DLH TO 30 NNW BRD TO 30 SE BJI. ..KERR..08/29/24 ATTN...WFO...FSD...DLH...MPX...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 662 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC021-292340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUENA VISTA MNC001-017-021-037-047-049-061-071-115-123-131-137-147-163- 292340- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN CARLTON CASS DAKOTA FREEBORN GOODHUE ITASCA KOOCHICHING PINE RAMSEY RICE ST. LOUIS STEELE WASHINGTON WIC005-013-031-033-093-095-109-129-292340- WI Read more