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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1235 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Dry conditions will persist across much of the Great Basin and into parts of the Pacific Northwest and central Rockies for this afternoon with RH minimums once again falling into the teens and single digits. Upper-level ridging over the western CONUS will promote mostly clear skies but weak synoptic/gradient winds that should mitigate fire weather concerns. Thunderstorm activity along the lower CO River Valley on Thursday (yesterday) resulted in a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms based on sporadic rainfall measurements and MRMS QPE. A similar mix of wet/dry thunderstorms is expected again today across far southeast NV into western AZ as weak mid-level ascent overspreads the fringe of a modest monsoonal moisture plume. Latest fuel guidance suggests lightning ignition efficiency/fuel dryness gradually increases from far western AZ into southern NV, but the spatial coverage of sufficiently dry fuel with appreciable dry lightning threat appears too limited to introduce highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern Lower Michigan this afternoon, with damaging winds the main threat. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur into parts of the Midwest, and also across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia into northeast Georgia. ...Great Lakes to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Moderate instability is expected to develop ahead of a cold front that should extend from eastern Lower MI southwest into OK this afternoon, with MLCAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg. Modestly enhanced westerly mid-level flow across Lower MI will contribute to 25-35 kts of deep-layer shear, and this should prove sufficient for organized multicell storms. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon as weak height falls/ascent overspreads the Slight Risk area, and where somewhat greater storm coverage is expected. Substantial boundary layer heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, and the strongest storms/clusters will be capable of damaging gusts and isolated severe hail. Farther southwest, mid-level flow will be weaker than across the Great Lakes, but higher MLCAPE and negligible CINH will be present. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along the front after 18-19z, tending to cluster with time, and pose a risk for strong/damaging gusts and perhaps hail. ...Southern Appalachians to the Southern Mid-Atlantic... Diurnal heating of a very moist air mass (mid/upper 70s surface dew points and PW generally above 1.75 inches) will result in strong instability, with pockets of MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg and effectively no CINH. Despite very weak mid-level flow of 10-15 kts, scattered thunderstorms developing near a weak front, and over higher terrain, will pose a risk for a few wet microbursts/strong wind gusts through this afternoon. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 08/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern Lower Michigan this afternoon, with damaging winds the main threat. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur into parts of the Midwest, and also across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia into northeast Georgia. ...Great Lakes to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Moderate instability is expected to develop ahead of a cold front that should extend from eastern Lower MI southwest into OK this afternoon, with MLCAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg. Modestly enhanced westerly mid-level flow across Lower MI will contribute to 25-35 kts of deep-layer shear, and this should prove sufficient for organized multicell storms. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon as weak height falls/ascent overspreads the Slight Risk area, and where somewhat greater storm coverage is expected. Substantial boundary layer heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, and the strongest storms/clusters will be capable of damaging gusts and isolated severe hail. Farther southwest, mid-level flow will be weaker than across the Great Lakes, but higher MLCAPE and negligible CINH will be present. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along the front after 18-19z, tending to cluster with time, and pose a risk for strong/damaging gusts and perhaps hail. ...Southern Appalachians to the Southern Mid-Atlantic... Diurnal heating of a very moist air mass (mid/upper 70s surface dew points and PW generally above 1.75 inches) will result in strong instability, with pockets of MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg and effectively no CINH. Despite very weak mid-level flow of 10-15 kts, scattered thunderstorms developing near a weak front, and over higher terrain, will pose a risk for a few wet microbursts/strong wind gusts through this afternoon. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 08/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern Lower Michigan this afternoon, with damaging winds the main threat. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur into parts of the Midwest, and also across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia into northeast Georgia. ...Great Lakes to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Moderate instability is expected to develop ahead of a cold front that should extend from eastern Lower MI southwest into OK this afternoon, with MLCAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg. Modestly enhanced westerly mid-level flow across Lower MI will contribute to 25-35 kts of deep-layer shear, and this should prove sufficient for organized multicell storms. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon as weak height falls/ascent overspreads the Slight Risk area, and where somewhat greater storm coverage is expected. Substantial boundary layer heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, and the strongest storms/clusters will be capable of damaging gusts and isolated severe hail. Farther southwest, mid-level flow will be weaker than across the Great Lakes, but higher MLCAPE and negligible CINH will be present. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along the front after 18-19z, tending to cluster with time, and pose a risk for strong/damaging gusts and perhaps hail. ...Southern Appalachians to the Southern Mid-Atlantic... Diurnal heating of a very moist air mass (mid/upper 70s surface dew points and PW generally above 1.75 inches) will result in strong instability, with pockets of MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg and effectively no CINH. Despite very weak mid-level flow of 10-15 kts, scattered thunderstorms developing near a weak front, and over higher terrain, will pose a risk for a few wet microbursts/strong wind gusts through this afternoon. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 08/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern Lower Michigan this afternoon, with damaging winds the main threat. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur into parts of the Midwest, and also across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia into northeast Georgia. ...Great Lakes to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Moderate instability is expected to develop ahead of a cold front that should extend from eastern Lower MI southwest into OK this afternoon, with MLCAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg. Modestly enhanced westerly mid-level flow across Lower MI will contribute to 25-35 kts of deep-layer shear, and this should prove sufficient for organized multicell storms. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon as weak height falls/ascent overspreads the Slight Risk area, and where somewhat greater storm coverage is expected. Substantial boundary layer heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, and the strongest storms/clusters will be capable of damaging gusts and isolated severe hail. Farther southwest, mid-level flow will be weaker than across the Great Lakes, but higher MLCAPE and negligible CINH will be present. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along the front after 18-19z, tending to cluster with time, and pose a risk for strong/damaging gusts and perhaps hail. ...Southern Appalachians to the Southern Mid-Atlantic... Diurnal heating of a very moist air mass (mid/upper 70s surface dew points and PW generally above 1.75 inches) will result in strong instability, with pockets of MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg and effectively no CINH. Despite very weak mid-level flow of 10-15 kts, scattered thunderstorms developing near a weak front, and over higher terrain, will pose a risk for a few wet microbursts/strong wind gusts through this afternoon. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 08/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern Lower Michigan this afternoon, with damaging winds the main threat. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur into parts of the Midwest, and also across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia into northeast Georgia. ...Great Lakes to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Moderate instability is expected to develop ahead of a cold front that should extend from eastern Lower MI southwest into OK this afternoon, with MLCAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg. Modestly enhanced westerly mid-level flow across Lower MI will contribute to 25-35 kts of deep-layer shear, and this should prove sufficient for organized multicell storms. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon as weak height falls/ascent overspreads the Slight Risk area, and where somewhat greater storm coverage is expected. Substantial boundary layer heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, and the strongest storms/clusters will be capable of damaging gusts and isolated severe hail. Farther southwest, mid-level flow will be weaker than across the Great Lakes, but higher MLCAPE and negligible CINH will be present. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along the front after 18-19z, tending to cluster with time, and pose a risk for strong/damaging gusts and perhaps hail. ...Southern Appalachians to the Southern Mid-Atlantic... Diurnal heating of a very moist air mass (mid/upper 70s surface dew points and PW generally above 1.75 inches) will result in strong instability, with pockets of MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg and effectively no CINH. Despite very weak mid-level flow of 10-15 kts, scattered thunderstorms developing near a weak front, and over higher terrain, will pose a risk for a few wet microbursts/strong wind gusts through this afternoon. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 08/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern Lower Michigan this afternoon, with damaging winds the main threat. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur into parts of the Midwest, and also across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia into northeast Georgia. ...Great Lakes to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Moderate instability is expected to develop ahead of a cold front that should extend from eastern Lower MI southwest into OK this afternoon, with MLCAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg. Modestly enhanced westerly mid-level flow across Lower MI will contribute to 25-35 kts of deep-layer shear, and this should prove sufficient for organized multicell storms. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon as weak height falls/ascent overspreads the Slight Risk area, and where somewhat greater storm coverage is expected. Substantial boundary layer heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, and the strongest storms/clusters will be capable of damaging gusts and isolated severe hail. Farther southwest, mid-level flow will be weaker than across the Great Lakes, but higher MLCAPE and negligible CINH will be present. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along the front after 18-19z, tending to cluster with time, and pose a risk for strong/damaging gusts and perhaps hail. ...Southern Appalachians to the Southern Mid-Atlantic... Diurnal heating of a very moist air mass (mid/upper 70s surface dew points and PW generally above 1.75 inches) will result in strong instability, with pockets of MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg and effectively no CINH. Despite very weak mid-level flow of 10-15 kts, scattered thunderstorms developing near a weak front, and over higher terrain, will pose a risk for a few wet microbursts/strong wind gusts through this afternoon. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 08/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern Lower Michigan this afternoon, with damaging winds the main threat. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur into parts of the Midwest, and also across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia into northeast Georgia. ...Great Lakes to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Moderate instability is expected to develop ahead of a cold front that should extend from eastern Lower MI southwest into OK this afternoon, with MLCAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg. Modestly enhanced westerly mid-level flow across Lower MI will contribute to 25-35 kts of deep-layer shear, and this should prove sufficient for organized multicell storms. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon as weak height falls/ascent overspreads the Slight Risk area, and where somewhat greater storm coverage is expected. Substantial boundary layer heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, and the strongest storms/clusters will be capable of damaging gusts and isolated severe hail. Farther southwest, mid-level flow will be weaker than across the Great Lakes, but higher MLCAPE and negligible CINH will be present. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along the front after 18-19z, tending to cluster with time, and pose a risk for strong/damaging gusts and perhaps hail. ...Southern Appalachians to the Southern Mid-Atlantic... Diurnal heating of a very moist air mass (mid/upper 70s surface dew points and PW generally above 1.75 inches) will result in strong instability, with pockets of MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg and effectively no CINH. Despite very weak mid-level flow of 10-15 kts, scattered thunderstorms developing near a weak front, and over higher terrain, will pose a risk for a few wet microbursts/strong wind gusts through this afternoon. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 08/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern Lower Michigan this afternoon, with damaging winds the main threat. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur into parts of the Midwest, and also across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia into northeast Georgia. ...Great Lakes to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Moderate instability is expected to develop ahead of a cold front that should extend from eastern Lower MI southwest into OK this afternoon, with MLCAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg. Modestly enhanced westerly mid-level flow across Lower MI will contribute to 25-35 kts of deep-layer shear, and this should prove sufficient for organized multicell storms. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon as weak height falls/ascent overspreads the Slight Risk area, and where somewhat greater storm coverage is expected. Substantial boundary layer heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, and the strongest storms/clusters will be capable of damaging gusts and isolated severe hail. Farther southwest, mid-level flow will be weaker than across the Great Lakes, but higher MLCAPE and negligible CINH will be present. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along the front after 18-19z, tending to cluster with time, and pose a risk for strong/damaging gusts and perhaps hail. ...Southern Appalachians to the Southern Mid-Atlantic... Diurnal heating of a very moist air mass (mid/upper 70s surface dew points and PW generally above 1.75 inches) will result in strong instability, with pockets of MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg and effectively no CINH. Despite very weak mid-level flow of 10-15 kts, scattered thunderstorms developing near a weak front, and over higher terrain, will pose a risk for a few wet microbursts/strong wind gusts through this afternoon. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 08/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern Lower Michigan this afternoon, with damaging winds the main threat. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur into parts of the Midwest, and also across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia into northeast Georgia. ...Great Lakes to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Moderate instability is expected to develop ahead of a cold front that should extend from eastern Lower MI southwest into OK this afternoon, with MLCAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg. Modestly enhanced westerly mid-level flow across Lower MI will contribute to 25-35 kts of deep-layer shear, and this should prove sufficient for organized multicell storms. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon as weak height falls/ascent overspreads the Slight Risk area, and where somewhat greater storm coverage is expected. Substantial boundary layer heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, and the strongest storms/clusters will be capable of damaging gusts and isolated severe hail. Farther southwest, mid-level flow will be weaker than across the Great Lakes, but higher MLCAPE and negligible CINH will be present. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along the front after 18-19z, tending to cluster with time, and pose a risk for strong/damaging gusts and perhaps hail. ...Southern Appalachians to the Southern Mid-Atlantic... Diurnal heating of a very moist air mass (mid/upper 70s surface dew points and PW generally above 1.75 inches) will result in strong instability, with pockets of MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg and effectively no CINH. Despite very weak mid-level flow of 10-15 kts, scattered thunderstorms developing near a weak front, and over higher terrain, will pose a risk for a few wet microbursts/strong wind gusts through this afternoon. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 08/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern Lower Michigan this afternoon, with damaging winds the main threat. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur into parts of the Midwest, and also across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia into northeast Georgia. ...Great Lakes to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Moderate instability is expected to develop ahead of a cold front that should extend from eastern Lower MI southwest into OK this afternoon, with MLCAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg. Modestly enhanced westerly mid-level flow across Lower MI will contribute to 25-35 kts of deep-layer shear, and this should prove sufficient for organized multicell storms. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon as weak height falls/ascent overspreads the Slight Risk area, and where somewhat greater storm coverage is expected. Substantial boundary layer heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, and the strongest storms/clusters will be capable of damaging gusts and isolated severe hail. Farther southwest, mid-level flow will be weaker than across the Great Lakes, but higher MLCAPE and negligible CINH will be present. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along the front after 18-19z, tending to cluster with time, and pose a risk for strong/damaging gusts and perhaps hail. ...Southern Appalachians to the Southern Mid-Atlantic... Diurnal heating of a very moist air mass (mid/upper 70s surface dew points and PW generally above 1.75 inches) will result in strong instability, with pockets of MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg and effectively no CINH. Despite very weak mid-level flow of 10-15 kts, scattered thunderstorms developing near a weak front, and over higher terrain, will pose a risk for a few wet microbursts/strong wind gusts through this afternoon. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 08/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern Lower Michigan this afternoon, with damaging winds the main threat. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur into parts of the Midwest, and also across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia into northeast Georgia. ...Great Lakes to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Moderate instability is expected to develop ahead of a cold front that should extend from eastern Lower MI southwest into OK this afternoon, with MLCAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg. Modestly enhanced westerly mid-level flow across Lower MI will contribute to 25-35 kts of deep-layer shear, and this should prove sufficient for organized multicell storms. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon as weak height falls/ascent overspreads the Slight Risk area, and where somewhat greater storm coverage is expected. Substantial boundary layer heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, and the strongest storms/clusters will be capable of damaging gusts and isolated severe hail. Farther southwest, mid-level flow will be weaker than across the Great Lakes, but higher MLCAPE and negligible CINH will be present. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along the front after 18-19z, tending to cluster with time, and pose a risk for strong/damaging gusts and perhaps hail. ...Southern Appalachians to the Southern Mid-Atlantic... Diurnal heating of a very moist air mass (mid/upper 70s surface dew points and PW generally above 1.75 inches) will result in strong instability, with pockets of MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg and effectively no CINH. Despite very weak mid-level flow of 10-15 kts, scattered thunderstorms developing near a weak front, and over higher terrain, will pose a risk for a few wet microbursts/strong wind gusts through this afternoon. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 08/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern Lower Michigan this afternoon, with damaging winds the main threat. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur into parts of the Midwest, and also across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia into northeast Georgia. ...Great Lakes to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Weak/elevated thunderstorms ongoing this morning from parts of northern IL into Lower MI should continue to gradually weaken. In their wake, moderate instability should develop along and ahead of a cold front that will extend from the Upper Great Lakes region southwestward to the southern Plains by this afternoon. This front should make continued slow east-southeastward progress across these regions through the period as an upper trough moves eastward over Ontario, the Great Lakes, and Midwest. Stronger mid-level winds associated with this feature will generally remain confined to Canada. But, modest enhancement to the west-southwesterly low/mid-level flow should be present over parts of Lower MI this afternoon. Even though low-level convergence along the front should remain fairly weak, expectations are for at least scattered thunderstorms to develop along much of its length from eastern Lower MI to the mid MS Valley and southern Plains. The combination of moderate instability with modest deep-layer shear should promote some convective organization, with loosely organized multicells/clusters likely becoming the dominant thunderstorm mode. Steepened low-level lapse rates with daytime hearing should encourage occasional strong to damaging winds, with slightly stronger low/mid-level flow perhaps supporting a relatively greater threat ahead of the front in eastern Lower MI. Isolated hail may also occur with the strongest cores. Convection should weaken with time this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Southern Appalachians to the Southern Mid-Atlantic... Upper ridging will persist over the Southeast today. Very weak low/mid-level flow is expected to limit overall thunderstorm organization. Still, moderate instability should be present this afternoon as daytime heating occurs along and south of a stalled front over southern VA and northern NC. Even though deep-layer shear will remain negligible, pulse-type thunderstorms that develop in this moderately unstable and high precipitable water environment could produce isolated strong to damaging downburst winds this afternoon. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 08/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern Lower Michigan this afternoon, with damaging winds the main threat. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur into parts of the Midwest, and also across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia into northeast Georgia. ...Great Lakes to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Weak/elevated thunderstorms ongoing this morning from parts of northern IL into Lower MI should continue to gradually weaken. In their wake, moderate instability should develop along and ahead of a cold front that will extend from the Upper Great Lakes region southwestward to the southern Plains by this afternoon. This front should make continued slow east-southeastward progress across these regions through the period as an upper trough moves eastward over Ontario, the Great Lakes, and Midwest. Stronger mid-level winds associated with this feature will generally remain confined to Canada. But, modest enhancement to the west-southwesterly low/mid-level flow should be present over parts of Lower MI this afternoon. Even though low-level convergence along the front should remain fairly weak, expectations are for at least scattered thunderstorms to develop along much of its length from eastern Lower MI to the mid MS Valley and southern Plains. The combination of moderate instability with modest deep-layer shear should promote some convective organization, with loosely organized multicells/clusters likely becoming the dominant thunderstorm mode. Steepened low-level lapse rates with daytime hearing should encourage occasional strong to damaging winds, with slightly stronger low/mid-level flow perhaps supporting a relatively greater threat ahead of the front in eastern Lower MI. Isolated hail may also occur with the strongest cores. Convection should weaken with time this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Southern Appalachians to the Southern Mid-Atlantic... Upper ridging will persist over the Southeast today. Very weak low/mid-level flow is expected to limit overall thunderstorm organization. Still, moderate instability should be present this afternoon as daytime heating occurs along and south of a stalled front over southern VA and northern NC. Even though deep-layer shear will remain negligible, pulse-type thunderstorms that develop in this moderately unstable and high precipitable water environment could produce isolated strong to damaging downburst winds this afternoon. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 08/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern Lower Michigan this afternoon, with damaging winds the main threat. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur into parts of the Midwest, and also across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia into northeast Georgia. ...Great Lakes to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Weak/elevated thunderstorms ongoing this morning from parts of northern IL into Lower MI should continue to gradually weaken. In their wake, moderate instability should develop along and ahead of a cold front that will extend from the Upper Great Lakes region southwestward to the southern Plains by this afternoon. This front should make continued slow east-southeastward progress across these regions through the period as an upper trough moves eastward over Ontario, the Great Lakes, and Midwest. Stronger mid-level winds associated with this feature will generally remain confined to Canada. But, modest enhancement to the west-southwesterly low/mid-level flow should be present over parts of Lower MI this afternoon. Even though low-level convergence along the front should remain fairly weak, expectations are for at least scattered thunderstorms to develop along much of its length from eastern Lower MI to the mid MS Valley and southern Plains. The combination of moderate instability with modest deep-layer shear should promote some convective organization, with loosely organized multicells/clusters likely becoming the dominant thunderstorm mode. Steepened low-level lapse rates with daytime hearing should encourage occasional strong to damaging winds, with slightly stronger low/mid-level flow perhaps supporting a relatively greater threat ahead of the front in eastern Lower MI. Isolated hail may also occur with the strongest cores. Convection should weaken with time this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Southern Appalachians to the Southern Mid-Atlantic... Upper ridging will persist over the Southeast today. Very weak low/mid-level flow is expected to limit overall thunderstorm organization. Still, moderate instability should be present this afternoon as daytime heating occurs along and south of a stalled front over southern VA and northern NC. Even though deep-layer shear will remain negligible, pulse-type thunderstorms that develop in this moderately unstable and high precipitable water environment could produce isolated strong to damaging downburst winds this afternoon. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 08/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern Lower Michigan this afternoon, with damaging winds the main threat. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur into parts of the Midwest, and also across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia into northeast Georgia. ...Great Lakes to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Weak/elevated thunderstorms ongoing this morning from parts of northern IL into Lower MI should continue to gradually weaken. In their wake, moderate instability should develop along and ahead of a cold front that will extend from the Upper Great Lakes region southwestward to the southern Plains by this afternoon. This front should make continued slow east-southeastward progress across these regions through the period as an upper trough moves eastward over Ontario, the Great Lakes, and Midwest. Stronger mid-level winds associated with this feature will generally remain confined to Canada. But, modest enhancement to the west-southwesterly low/mid-level flow should be present over parts of Lower MI this afternoon. Even though low-level convergence along the front should remain fairly weak, expectations are for at least scattered thunderstorms to develop along much of its length from eastern Lower MI to the mid MS Valley and southern Plains. The combination of moderate instability with modest deep-layer shear should promote some convective organization, with loosely organized multicells/clusters likely becoming the dominant thunderstorm mode. Steepened low-level lapse rates with daytime hearing should encourage occasional strong to damaging winds, with slightly stronger low/mid-level flow perhaps supporting a relatively greater threat ahead of the front in eastern Lower MI. Isolated hail may also occur with the strongest cores. Convection should weaken with time this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Southern Appalachians to the Southern Mid-Atlantic... Upper ridging will persist over the Southeast today. Very weak low/mid-level flow is expected to limit overall thunderstorm organization. Still, moderate instability should be present this afternoon as daytime heating occurs along and south of a stalled front over southern VA and northern NC. Even though deep-layer shear will remain negligible, pulse-type thunderstorms that develop in this moderately unstable and high precipitable water environment could produce isolated strong to damaging downburst winds this afternoon. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 08/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern Lower Michigan this afternoon, with damaging winds the main threat. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur into parts of the Midwest, and also across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia into northeast Georgia. ...Great Lakes to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Weak/elevated thunderstorms ongoing this morning from parts of northern IL into Lower MI should continue to gradually weaken. In their wake, moderate instability should develop along and ahead of a cold front that will extend from the Upper Great Lakes region southwestward to the southern Plains by this afternoon. This front should make continued slow east-southeastward progress across these regions through the period as an upper trough moves eastward over Ontario, the Great Lakes, and Midwest. Stronger mid-level winds associated with this feature will generally remain confined to Canada. But, modest enhancement to the west-southwesterly low/mid-level flow should be present over parts of Lower MI this afternoon. Even though low-level convergence along the front should remain fairly weak, expectations are for at least scattered thunderstorms to develop along much of its length from eastern Lower MI to the mid MS Valley and southern Plains. The combination of moderate instability with modest deep-layer shear should promote some convective organization, with loosely organized multicells/clusters likely becoming the dominant thunderstorm mode. Steepened low-level lapse rates with daytime hearing should encourage occasional strong to damaging winds, with slightly stronger low/mid-level flow perhaps supporting a relatively greater threat ahead of the front in eastern Lower MI. Isolated hail may also occur with the strongest cores. Convection should weaken with time this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Southern Appalachians to the Southern Mid-Atlantic... Upper ridging will persist over the Southeast today. Very weak low/mid-level flow is expected to limit overall thunderstorm organization. Still, moderate instability should be present this afternoon as daytime heating occurs along and south of a stalled front over southern VA and northern NC. Even though deep-layer shear will remain negligible, pulse-type thunderstorms that develop in this moderately unstable and high precipitable water environment could produce isolated strong to damaging downburst winds this afternoon. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 08/30/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301128
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Aug 30 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... Global models appear to be in reasonable agreement through the medium range, with a long-wave upper trough crossing the eastern U.S. Day 4/Monday, and then shifting into the Canadian Maritimes and western Atlantic Day 5/Tuesday. Weak/low-amplitude flow aloft will prevail across the U.S. Day 5 and into Day 6/Wednesday, before the pattern begins to amplify again through Days 7-8 (Thursday and Friday, Sept. 5-6). This amplification anticipated late in the period will result in an eastern trough/western ridge configuration, with a cold front to progress across the eastern half of the country through the second half of the period. However, with the prior (Day 3) frontal advance across the southern U.S., and persistence of Canadian surface high pressure in its wake, rich/Gulf moisture is expected to remain confined to southern portions of the country. This should limit severe potential with the late-period system as it crosses the CONUS. As such, no severe-weather risk areas are being included in the forecast, as overall potential appears likely at this time to remain low through the end of the upcoming week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... Global models appear to be in reasonable agreement through the medium range, with a long-wave upper trough crossing the eastern U.S. Day 4/Monday, and then shifting into the Canadian Maritimes and western Atlantic Day 5/Tuesday. Weak/low-amplitude flow aloft will prevail across the U.S. Day 5 and into Day 6/Wednesday, before the pattern begins to amplify again through Days 7-8 (Thursday and Friday, Sept. 5-6). This amplification anticipated late in the period will result in an eastern trough/western ridge configuration, with a cold front to progress across the eastern half of the country through the second half of the period. However, with the prior (Day 3) frontal advance across the southern U.S., and persistence of Canadian surface high pressure in its wake, rich/Gulf moisture is expected to remain confined to southern portions of the country. This should limit severe potential with the late-period system as it crosses the CONUS. As such, no severe-weather risk areas are being included in the forecast, as overall potential appears likely at this time to remain low through the end of the upcoming week. Read more