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WW 0661 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 661 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NW PIR TO 10 NNW MBG TO 40 ENE N60. ..KERR..08/29/24 ATTN...WFO...BIS...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 661 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC015-029-043-047-051-083-093-103-290240- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BURLEIGH EMMONS KIDDER LOGAN MCINTOSH SHERIDAN STUTSMAN WELLS SDC021-031-041-045-049-059-065-069-089-107-117-119-129-290240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMPBELL CORSON DEWEY EDMUNDS FAULK HAND HUGHES HYDE MCPHERSON POTTER STANLEY SULLY WALWORTH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

MD 2025 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 661... FOR PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2025 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Areas affected...parts of north central South Dakota and south central North Dakota Concerning...Tornado Watch 661... Valid 282352Z - 290145Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 661 continues. SUMMARY...Supercell development likely will persist near the Dakotas state border vicinity between Jamestown ND and Mobridge SD through 8-9 PM CDT. These storms will pose a continuing risk for large hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter, with at least some further increase in tornadic potential possible. DISCUSSION...Intense thunderstorm initiation has been focused along surface troughing across the central Dakotas, most notably near and just north of the state border vicinity. This is near the nose of stronger surface heating characterized by temperatures approaching 90 F, in the presence of lower/mid 70s F dew points. Coupled with forcing for ascent, this has been sufficient to overcome mid-level inhibition associated with warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air. At least some attempt at upscale growth is underway north of the sustained supercell development to the southwest of Fort Yates, across and north of the Bismarck vicinity. However, the mid-level cold core of the slow moving upstream low, progressing eastward along the central Montana international border area, will remain displaced well to the west of the weak southeastward advancing cold front. Strongest low-level forcing, in the form of lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, appears likely to remain focused near the North and South Dakota state border area, between Jamestown ND and Mobridge SD, aided by an intensifying southerly low-level jet (to 50+ kt around 850 mb) through 01-02Z. This probably will maintain evolving supercell structures, perhaps within a small upscale growing cluster. Aided by southeasterly inflow of air characterized by CAPE in excess of 3000-4000 J/kg, in the presence of moderate southwesterly deep-layer shear, activity will continue to pose a risk for large hail. As clockwise-curved low-level hodographs slowly enlarge, the potential for tornadoes may still increase a bit further early this evening. ..Kerr.. 08/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS... LAT...LON 45870028 46719973 46469867 45609907 45609975 45640042 45870028 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm threat continues across parts of the Dakotas this evening. ...01z Update... Strong mid-level short-wave trough is well evident in satellite imagery, extending from the AB/SK border, south into eastern ID. This feature will shift into eastern MT/WY by the end of the period as a 70kt+ 500mb speed max translates across western ND into southwest MB. Scattered supercells have developed ahead of this short wave from near Minot ND to just north of Mobridge SD. Latest model guidance suggests a weak surface low, or at least a wave, will track northeast along the surface front into southeast ND by 29/12z. Over the next few hours, LLJ will increase across the eastern Dakotas and this should encourage eastward propagation of convection within a concentrated zone of low-level warm advection. Latest diagnostic data suggests ongoing storms are rooted within the main corridor of instability, and peak updraft intensity may linger through 03-04z before a more hostile environment is encountered downstream. Very large hail may be noted for the next hour or two, along with some risk for a tornado, then hail/wind threat will linger into the late-evening hours. ..Darrow.. 08/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm threat continues across parts of the Dakotas this evening. ...01z Update... Strong mid-level short-wave trough is well evident in satellite imagery, extending from the AB/SK border, south into eastern ID. This feature will shift into eastern MT/WY by the end of the period as a 70kt+ 500mb speed max translates across western ND into southwest MB. Scattered supercells have developed ahead of this short wave from near Minot ND to just north of Mobridge SD. Latest model guidance suggests a weak surface low, or at least a wave, will track northeast along the surface front into southeast ND by 29/12z. Over the next few hours, LLJ will increase across the eastern Dakotas and this should encourage eastward propagation of convection within a concentrated zone of low-level warm advection. Latest diagnostic data suggests ongoing storms are rooted within the main corridor of instability, and peak updraft intensity may linger through 03-04z before a more hostile environment is encountered downstream. Very large hail may be noted for the next hour or two, along with some risk for a tornado, then hail/wind threat will linger into the late-evening hours. ..Darrow.. 08/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm threat continues across parts of the Dakotas this evening. ...01z Update... Strong mid-level short-wave trough is well evident in satellite imagery, extending from the AB/SK border, south into eastern ID. This feature will shift into eastern MT/WY by the end of the period as a 70kt+ 500mb speed max translates across western ND into southwest MB. Scattered supercells have developed ahead of this short wave from near Minot ND to just north of Mobridge SD. Latest model guidance suggests a weak surface low, or at least a wave, will track northeast along the surface front into southeast ND by 29/12z. Over the next few hours, LLJ will increase across the eastern Dakotas and this should encourage eastward propagation of convection within a concentrated zone of low-level warm advection. Latest diagnostic data suggests ongoing storms are rooted within the main corridor of instability, and peak updraft intensity may linger through 03-04z before a more hostile environment is encountered downstream. Very large hail may be noted for the next hour or two, along with some risk for a tornado, then hail/wind threat will linger into the late-evening hours. ..Darrow.. 08/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm threat continues across parts of the Dakotas this evening. ...01z Update... Strong mid-level short-wave trough is well evident in satellite imagery, extending from the AB/SK border, south into eastern ID. This feature will shift into eastern MT/WY by the end of the period as a 70kt+ 500mb speed max translates across western ND into southwest MB. Scattered supercells have developed ahead of this short wave from near Minot ND to just north of Mobridge SD. Latest model guidance suggests a weak surface low, or at least a wave, will track northeast along the surface front into southeast ND by 29/12z. Over the next few hours, LLJ will increase across the eastern Dakotas and this should encourage eastward propagation of convection within a concentrated zone of low-level warm advection. Latest diagnostic data suggests ongoing storms are rooted within the main corridor of instability, and peak updraft intensity may linger through 03-04z before a more hostile environment is encountered downstream. Very large hail may be noted for the next hour or two, along with some risk for a tornado, then hail/wind threat will linger into the late-evening hours. ..Darrow.. 08/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm threat continues across parts of the Dakotas this evening. ...01z Update... Strong mid-level short-wave trough is well evident in satellite imagery, extending from the AB/SK border, south into eastern ID. This feature will shift into eastern MT/WY by the end of the period as a 70kt+ 500mb speed max translates across western ND into southwest MB. Scattered supercells have developed ahead of this short wave from near Minot ND to just north of Mobridge SD. Latest model guidance suggests a weak surface low, or at least a wave, will track northeast along the surface front into southeast ND by 29/12z. Over the next few hours, LLJ will increase across the eastern Dakotas and this should encourage eastward propagation of convection within a concentrated zone of low-level warm advection. Latest diagnostic data suggests ongoing storms are rooted within the main corridor of instability, and peak updraft intensity may linger through 03-04z before a more hostile environment is encountered downstream. Very large hail may be noted for the next hour or two, along with some risk for a tornado, then hail/wind threat will linger into the late-evening hours. ..Darrow.. 08/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm threat continues across parts of the Dakotas this evening. ...01z Update... Strong mid-level short-wave trough is well evident in satellite imagery, extending from the AB/SK border, south into eastern ID. This feature will shift into eastern MT/WY by the end of the period as a 70kt+ 500mb speed max translates across western ND into southwest MB. Scattered supercells have developed ahead of this short wave from near Minot ND to just north of Mobridge SD. Latest model guidance suggests a weak surface low, or at least a wave, will track northeast along the surface front into southeast ND by 29/12z. Over the next few hours, LLJ will increase across the eastern Dakotas and this should encourage eastward propagation of convection within a concentrated zone of low-level warm advection. Latest diagnostic data suggests ongoing storms are rooted within the main corridor of instability, and peak updraft intensity may linger through 03-04z before a more hostile environment is encountered downstream. Very large hail may be noted for the next hour or two, along with some risk for a tornado, then hail/wind threat will linger into the late-evening hours. ..Darrow.. 08/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm threat continues across parts of the Dakotas this evening. ...01z Update... Strong mid-level short-wave trough is well evident in satellite imagery, extending from the AB/SK border, south into eastern ID. This feature will shift into eastern MT/WY by the end of the period as a 70kt+ 500mb speed max translates across western ND into southwest MB. Scattered supercells have developed ahead of this short wave from near Minot ND to just north of Mobridge SD. Latest model guidance suggests a weak surface low, or at least a wave, will track northeast along the surface front into southeast ND by 29/12z. Over the next few hours, LLJ will increase across the eastern Dakotas and this should encourage eastward propagation of convection within a concentrated zone of low-level warm advection. Latest diagnostic data suggests ongoing storms are rooted within the main corridor of instability, and peak updraft intensity may linger through 03-04z before a more hostile environment is encountered downstream. Very large hail may be noted for the next hour or two, along with some risk for a tornado, then hail/wind threat will linger into the late-evening hours. ..Darrow.. 08/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm threat continues across parts of the Dakotas this evening. ...01z Update... Strong mid-level short-wave trough is well evident in satellite imagery, extending from the AB/SK border, south into eastern ID. This feature will shift into eastern MT/WY by the end of the period as a 70kt+ 500mb speed max translates across western ND into southwest MB. Scattered supercells have developed ahead of this short wave from near Minot ND to just north of Mobridge SD. Latest model guidance suggests a weak surface low, or at least a wave, will track northeast along the surface front into southeast ND by 29/12z. Over the next few hours, LLJ will increase across the eastern Dakotas and this should encourage eastward propagation of convection within a concentrated zone of low-level warm advection. Latest diagnostic data suggests ongoing storms are rooted within the main corridor of instability, and peak updraft intensity may linger through 03-04z before a more hostile environment is encountered downstream. Very large hail may be noted for the next hour or two, along with some risk for a tornado, then hail/wind threat will linger into the late-evening hours. ..Darrow.. 08/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm threat continues across parts of the Dakotas this evening. ...01z Update... Strong mid-level short-wave trough is well evident in satellite imagery, extending from the AB/SK border, south into eastern ID. This feature will shift into eastern MT/WY by the end of the period as a 70kt+ 500mb speed max translates across western ND into southwest MB. Scattered supercells have developed ahead of this short wave from near Minot ND to just north of Mobridge SD. Latest model guidance suggests a weak surface low, or at least a wave, will track northeast along the surface front into southeast ND by 29/12z. Over the next few hours, LLJ will increase across the eastern Dakotas and this should encourage eastward propagation of convection within a concentrated zone of low-level warm advection. Latest diagnostic data suggests ongoing storms are rooted within the main corridor of instability, and peak updraft intensity may linger through 03-04z before a more hostile environment is encountered downstream. Very large hail may be noted for the next hour or two, along with some risk for a tornado, then hail/wind threat will linger into the late-evening hours. ..Darrow.. 08/29/2024 Read more

WW 0661 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 661 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NW PIR TO 10 NNW MBG TO 40 ENE N60. ..KERR..08/29/24 ATTN...WFO...BIS...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 661 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC015-029-043-047-051-059-083-103-290140- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BURLEIGH EMMONS KIDDER LOGAN MCINTOSH MORTON SHERIDAN WELLS SDC021-031-041-045-049-059-065-069-089-107-117-119-129-290140- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMPBELL CORSON DEWEY EDMUNDS FAULK HAND HUGHES HYDE MCPHERSON POTTER STANLEY SULLY WALWORTH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Aug 28 23:16:17 UTC 2024.

278
ABPZ20 KNHC 282313
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Aug 28 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Hector, located about midway between the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula and the Hawaiian Islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin

MD 2024 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2024 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Areas affected...north-central South Dakota into North Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 282051Z - 282315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Scattered severe storms are likely to develop over the next couple hours, with very large hail, damaging gusts, and a tornado or two expected. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a low over west-central SD, with a pre-frontal trough extending northward into western ND. A cold front continues to surge eastward across the western Dakotas, enhancing low-level convergence. Meanwhile, a warm front currently extends from near Bismarck into northeast SD, with upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints nearby. The combination of daytime heating and the moist air mass had led to a pocket of strong destabilization with several thousand MUCAPE despite mediocre midlevel lapse rates. Visible imagery show rapidly develop cumulus fields in the warmer air near the surface low, and farther north into central ND where convergence is maximized along the boundaries. Given the continued heating and convergence, storms are expected to form within the next couple hours. Veering winds with height along with the approaching upper trough will favor slow-moving supercells at first, producing very large hail and perhaps a tornado or two. With time, a linear storm mode is likely with damaging winds. ..Jewell/Guyer.. 08/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR... LAT...LON 43870145 44490137 45210132 45990140 46470156 46870179 47250198 47610172 47670083 47390020 46849972 46349940 45599934 44909942 44279968 43900007 43600073 43610126 43870145 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z On Days 3-4/Friday-Saturday, a large-scale ridge will remain in place across much of the West, resulting in continued boundary-layer warming and drying of fuels (most notably across the Northwest into the northern Rockies). Late on Day 4/Saturday, weak midlevel height falls will impinge on the Pacific Northwest, as a midlevel low approaches the region. Increasing PW and the weak ascent may support an isolated thunderstorm risk across coastal OR/WA, though confidence in this scenario is low. Thereafter, the midlevel low will continue east-northeastward across northern CA/southern OR on Day 5/Sunday, with strengthening ascent overspreading increasing midlevel moisture. This will support isolated dry thunderstorms, with the greatest confidence over portions of south/central OR during the late afternoon into overnight hours. On Day 6/Monday, more substantial midlevel height falls/ascent accompanying the upper trough/low will overspread OR, as PW continues to gradually increase. This will favor another day of isolated thunderstorms, some of which could be a mix of wet/dry. Given gradually drying fuels preceding this potential thunderstorm event, 10-percent Isolated Dry Thunderstorm probabilities have been added for both days. The thunderstorm risk will spread east-northeastward into the northern Rockies on Day 7/Tuesday -- in tandem with the midlevel trough -- though the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 08/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z On Days 3-4/Friday-Saturday, a large-scale ridge will remain in place across much of the West, resulting in continued boundary-layer warming and drying of fuels (most notably across the Northwest into the northern Rockies). Late on Day 4/Saturday, weak midlevel height falls will impinge on the Pacific Northwest, as a midlevel low approaches the region. Increasing PW and the weak ascent may support an isolated thunderstorm risk across coastal OR/WA, though confidence in this scenario is low. Thereafter, the midlevel low will continue east-northeastward across northern CA/southern OR on Day 5/Sunday, with strengthening ascent overspreading increasing midlevel moisture. This will support isolated dry thunderstorms, with the greatest confidence over portions of south/central OR during the late afternoon into overnight hours. On Day 6/Monday, more substantial midlevel height falls/ascent accompanying the upper trough/low will overspread OR, as PW continues to gradually increase. This will favor another day of isolated thunderstorms, some of which could be a mix of wet/dry. Given gradually drying fuels preceding this potential thunderstorm event, 10-percent Isolated Dry Thunderstorm probabilities have been added for both days. The thunderstorm risk will spread east-northeastward into the northern Rockies on Day 7/Tuesday -- in tandem with the midlevel trough -- though the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 08/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z On Days 3-4/Friday-Saturday, a large-scale ridge will remain in place across much of the West, resulting in continued boundary-layer warming and drying of fuels (most notably across the Northwest into the northern Rockies). Late on Day 4/Saturday, weak midlevel height falls will impinge on the Pacific Northwest, as a midlevel low approaches the region. Increasing PW and the weak ascent may support an isolated thunderstorm risk across coastal OR/WA, though confidence in this scenario is low. Thereafter, the midlevel low will continue east-northeastward across northern CA/southern OR on Day 5/Sunday, with strengthening ascent overspreading increasing midlevel moisture. This will support isolated dry thunderstorms, with the greatest confidence over portions of south/central OR during the late afternoon into overnight hours. On Day 6/Monday, more substantial midlevel height falls/ascent accompanying the upper trough/low will overspread OR, as PW continues to gradually increase. This will favor another day of isolated thunderstorms, some of which could be a mix of wet/dry. Given gradually drying fuels preceding this potential thunderstorm event, 10-percent Isolated Dry Thunderstorm probabilities have been added for both days. The thunderstorm risk will spread east-northeastward into the northern Rockies on Day 7/Tuesday -- in tandem with the midlevel trough -- though the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 08/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z On Days 3-4/Friday-Saturday, a large-scale ridge will remain in place across much of the West, resulting in continued boundary-layer warming and drying of fuels (most notably across the Northwest into the northern Rockies). Late on Day 4/Saturday, weak midlevel height falls will impinge on the Pacific Northwest, as a midlevel low approaches the region. Increasing PW and the weak ascent may support an isolated thunderstorm risk across coastal OR/WA, though confidence in this scenario is low. Thereafter, the midlevel low will continue east-northeastward across northern CA/southern OR on Day 5/Sunday, with strengthening ascent overspreading increasing midlevel moisture. This will support isolated dry thunderstorms, with the greatest confidence over portions of south/central OR during the late afternoon into overnight hours. On Day 6/Monday, more substantial midlevel height falls/ascent accompanying the upper trough/low will overspread OR, as PW continues to gradually increase. This will favor another day of isolated thunderstorms, some of which could be a mix of wet/dry. Given gradually drying fuels preceding this potential thunderstorm event, 10-percent Isolated Dry Thunderstorm probabilities have been added for both days. The thunderstorm risk will spread east-northeastward into the northern Rockies on Day 7/Tuesday -- in tandem with the midlevel trough -- though the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 08/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z On Days 3-4/Friday-Saturday, a large-scale ridge will remain in place across much of the West, resulting in continued boundary-layer warming and drying of fuels (most notably across the Northwest into the northern Rockies). Late on Day 4/Saturday, weak midlevel height falls will impinge on the Pacific Northwest, as a midlevel low approaches the region. Increasing PW and the weak ascent may support an isolated thunderstorm risk across coastal OR/WA, though confidence in this scenario is low. Thereafter, the midlevel low will continue east-northeastward across northern CA/southern OR on Day 5/Sunday, with strengthening ascent overspreading increasing midlevel moisture. This will support isolated dry thunderstorms, with the greatest confidence over portions of south/central OR during the late afternoon into overnight hours. On Day 6/Monday, more substantial midlevel height falls/ascent accompanying the upper trough/low will overspread OR, as PW continues to gradually increase. This will favor another day of isolated thunderstorms, some of which could be a mix of wet/dry. Given gradually drying fuels preceding this potential thunderstorm event, 10-percent Isolated Dry Thunderstorm probabilities have been added for both days. The thunderstorm risk will spread east-northeastward into the northern Rockies on Day 7/Tuesday -- in tandem with the midlevel trough -- though the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 08/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more