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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The forecast remains unchanged. Strong surface winds are still expected into eastern portions of the Dakotas into eastern Nebraska. Fuel receptiveness and RH trends will continue to be monitored in these areas, but current guidance continues to suggest lesser concerns with eastern extent. ..Wendt.. 09/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing will continue to intensify as it crosses the Intermountain West and overspreads the northern/central Rockies Thursday. Strong flow aloft will approach the central High Plains as a lee low quickly deepens. A surface lee trough will trail south from the developing low, enhancing southerly winds over much of the Plains. With dry conditions in place, critical fire-weather concerns are likely. ...Central High Plains... Southerly surface winds will begin to increase overnight D1/Wednesday and into early D2/Thursday as upper-level forcing approaches from the west. Winds should continue to intensify through the day as the lee trough/low deepen considerably. South/southwesterly gusts of 20-30 mph are possible along with RH values below 25%. RH will be less favorable farther east, though winds will still be strong. Area fine fuels are dry, but should dry further over the next 24-36 hours, reaching critical levels. With the potent combination of strong winds and low RH likely over several hours D2/Thursday, widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Intermountain West... Across parts of western CO/WY, strong southwesterly winds are expected ahead of the cold front moving out of the eastern Great Basin. Aided by the strong flow aloft, wind gusts of 25-30 mph are likely. Dry southwesterly flow and warm temperatures will support afternoon RH values below 20%. Meteorological conditions are quite conducive to fire spread. However, area fuels are much less favorable after recent rainfall. Given the magnitude of the wind and relatively dry conditions, several hours of elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely before the front passes through. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The forecast remains unchanged. Strong surface winds are still expected into eastern portions of the Dakotas into eastern Nebraska. Fuel receptiveness and RH trends will continue to be monitored in these areas, but current guidance continues to suggest lesser concerns with eastern extent. ..Wendt.. 09/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing will continue to intensify as it crosses the Intermountain West and overspreads the northern/central Rockies Thursday. Strong flow aloft will approach the central High Plains as a lee low quickly deepens. A surface lee trough will trail south from the developing low, enhancing southerly winds over much of the Plains. With dry conditions in place, critical fire-weather concerns are likely. ...Central High Plains... Southerly surface winds will begin to increase overnight D1/Wednesday and into early D2/Thursday as upper-level forcing approaches from the west. Winds should continue to intensify through the day as the lee trough/low deepen considerably. South/southwesterly gusts of 20-30 mph are possible along with RH values below 25%. RH will be less favorable farther east, though winds will still be strong. Area fine fuels are dry, but should dry further over the next 24-36 hours, reaching critical levels. With the potent combination of strong winds and low RH likely over several hours D2/Thursday, widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Intermountain West... Across parts of western CO/WY, strong southwesterly winds are expected ahead of the cold front moving out of the eastern Great Basin. Aided by the strong flow aloft, wind gusts of 25-30 mph are likely. Dry southwesterly flow and warm temperatures will support afternoon RH values below 20%. Meteorological conditions are quite conducive to fire spread. However, area fuels are much less favorable after recent rainfall. Given the magnitude of the wind and relatively dry conditions, several hours of elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely before the front passes through. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The forecast remains unchanged. Strong surface winds are still expected into eastern portions of the Dakotas into eastern Nebraska. Fuel receptiveness and RH trends will continue to be monitored in these areas, but current guidance continues to suggest lesser concerns with eastern extent. ..Wendt.. 09/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing will continue to intensify as it crosses the Intermountain West and overspreads the northern/central Rockies Thursday. Strong flow aloft will approach the central High Plains as a lee low quickly deepens. A surface lee trough will trail south from the developing low, enhancing southerly winds over much of the Plains. With dry conditions in place, critical fire-weather concerns are likely. ...Central High Plains... Southerly surface winds will begin to increase overnight D1/Wednesday and into early D2/Thursday as upper-level forcing approaches from the west. Winds should continue to intensify through the day as the lee trough/low deepen considerably. South/southwesterly gusts of 20-30 mph are possible along with RH values below 25%. RH will be less favorable farther east, though winds will still be strong. Area fine fuels are dry, but should dry further over the next 24-36 hours, reaching critical levels. With the potent combination of strong winds and low RH likely over several hours D2/Thursday, widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Intermountain West... Across parts of western CO/WY, strong southwesterly winds are expected ahead of the cold front moving out of the eastern Great Basin. Aided by the strong flow aloft, wind gusts of 25-30 mph are likely. Dry southwesterly flow and warm temperatures will support afternoon RH values below 20%. Meteorological conditions are quite conducive to fire spread. However, area fuels are much less favorable after recent rainfall. Given the magnitude of the wind and relatively dry conditions, several hours of elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely before the front passes through. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The forecast remains unchanged. Strong surface winds are still expected into eastern portions of the Dakotas into eastern Nebraska. Fuel receptiveness and RH trends will continue to be monitored in these areas, but current guidance continues to suggest lesser concerns with eastern extent. ..Wendt.. 09/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing will continue to intensify as it crosses the Intermountain West and overspreads the northern/central Rockies Thursday. Strong flow aloft will approach the central High Plains as a lee low quickly deepens. A surface lee trough will trail south from the developing low, enhancing southerly winds over much of the Plains. With dry conditions in place, critical fire-weather concerns are likely. ...Central High Plains... Southerly surface winds will begin to increase overnight D1/Wednesday and into early D2/Thursday as upper-level forcing approaches from the west. Winds should continue to intensify through the day as the lee trough/low deepen considerably. South/southwesterly gusts of 20-30 mph are possible along with RH values below 25%. RH will be less favorable farther east, though winds will still be strong. Area fine fuels are dry, but should dry further over the next 24-36 hours, reaching critical levels. With the potent combination of strong winds and low RH likely over several hours D2/Thursday, widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Intermountain West... Across parts of western CO/WY, strong southwesterly winds are expected ahead of the cold front moving out of the eastern Great Basin. Aided by the strong flow aloft, wind gusts of 25-30 mph are likely. Dry southwesterly flow and warm temperatures will support afternoon RH values below 20%. Meteorological conditions are quite conducive to fire spread. However, area fuels are much less favorable after recent rainfall. Given the magnitude of the wind and relatively dry conditions, several hours of elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely before the front passes through. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The forecast remains unchanged. Strong surface winds are still expected into eastern portions of the Dakotas into eastern Nebraska. Fuel receptiveness and RH trends will continue to be monitored in these areas, but current guidance continues to suggest lesser concerns with eastern extent. ..Wendt.. 09/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing will continue to intensify as it crosses the Intermountain West and overspreads the northern/central Rockies Thursday. Strong flow aloft will approach the central High Plains as a lee low quickly deepens. A surface lee trough will trail south from the developing low, enhancing southerly winds over much of the Plains. With dry conditions in place, critical fire-weather concerns are likely. ...Central High Plains... Southerly surface winds will begin to increase overnight D1/Wednesday and into early D2/Thursday as upper-level forcing approaches from the west. Winds should continue to intensify through the day as the lee trough/low deepen considerably. South/southwesterly gusts of 20-30 mph are possible along with RH values below 25%. RH will be less favorable farther east, though winds will still be strong. Area fine fuels are dry, but should dry further over the next 24-36 hours, reaching critical levels. With the potent combination of strong winds and low RH likely over several hours D2/Thursday, widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Intermountain West... Across parts of western CO/WY, strong southwesterly winds are expected ahead of the cold front moving out of the eastern Great Basin. Aided by the strong flow aloft, wind gusts of 25-30 mph are likely. Dry southwesterly flow and warm temperatures will support afternoon RH values below 20%. Meteorological conditions are quite conducive to fire spread. However, area fuels are much less favorable after recent rainfall. Given the magnitude of the wind and relatively dry conditions, several hours of elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely before the front passes through. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The forecast remains unchanged. Strong surface winds are still expected into eastern portions of the Dakotas into eastern Nebraska. Fuel receptiveness and RH trends will continue to be monitored in these areas, but current guidance continues to suggest lesser concerns with eastern extent. ..Wendt.. 09/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing will continue to intensify as it crosses the Intermountain West and overspreads the northern/central Rockies Thursday. Strong flow aloft will approach the central High Plains as a lee low quickly deepens. A surface lee trough will trail south from the developing low, enhancing southerly winds over much of the Plains. With dry conditions in place, critical fire-weather concerns are likely. ...Central High Plains... Southerly surface winds will begin to increase overnight D1/Wednesday and into early D2/Thursday as upper-level forcing approaches from the west. Winds should continue to intensify through the day as the lee trough/low deepen considerably. South/southwesterly gusts of 20-30 mph are possible along with RH values below 25%. RH will be less favorable farther east, though winds will still be strong. Area fine fuels are dry, but should dry further over the next 24-36 hours, reaching critical levels. With the potent combination of strong winds and low RH likely over several hours D2/Thursday, widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Intermountain West... Across parts of western CO/WY, strong southwesterly winds are expected ahead of the cold front moving out of the eastern Great Basin. Aided by the strong flow aloft, wind gusts of 25-30 mph are likely. Dry southwesterly flow and warm temperatures will support afternoon RH values below 20%. Meteorological conditions are quite conducive to fire spread. However, area fuels are much less favorable after recent rainfall. Given the magnitude of the wind and relatively dry conditions, several hours of elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely before the front passes through. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2052 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 2052 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Areas affected...portions of southern and eastern Louisiana into southern Mississippi Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 111728Z - 111900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...The threat for at least a few tornadoes is increasing across portions of southern LA into far southern MS. A Tornado Watch issuance will be needed soon. DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar imagery has shown a gradual increase in the intensity of convective cells embedded within the broader rainbands associated with Hurricane Francine, which are attempting to move ashore. Surface temperatures/dewpoints in southeastern LA are in the upper 70s/mid 70s F, which are contributing to 500+ J/kg MLCAPE. At the same time, low-level shear continues to increase along the Gulf Coast, with the HDC VAD profiler showing increasingly curved hodographs, with nearly 200 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH noted. Low-level shear should continue to increase through the afternoon, with a subsequent increase in tornado potential likely as well. Given the increasing severe risk, a Tornado Watch issuance will be needed soon. ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 09/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...LCH... LAT...LON 29539220 30089172 30559106 30769022 30888930 30908867 30808839 30598827 30238832 29968878 29288907 29048912 29008966 29019042 29099128 29539220 Read more

WW 0667 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0667 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 111730
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 11 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles southwest
of the coast of southwestern Mexico is producing a large area of
showers and thunderstorms stretching from the coast of Mexico and
extending offshore for several hundred miles. This activity is a
little better organized this afternoon, and environmental conditions
appear conducive for additional development. A tropical depression
is likely to form during the next couple of days as the system
begins moving north-northwestward, near the coast of southwestern
Mexico and towards the Baja California Peninsula. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall is likely across coastal portions of
southwestern and west-central Mexico during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

No watches are valid as of Wed Sep 11 17:31:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO CENTRAL ALABAMA AND IN EASTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... On Thursday, a few tornadoes will be possible, mainly in the morning and afternoon from the Florida Panhandle to north-central Alabama. Scattered large hail and severe gusts will also be possible across the eastern Montana vicinity during the afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will become negatively tilted across the northern Rockies on Thursday afternoon as a moderately strong mid-level jet streak wraps around the southern periphery of the primary trough. At the same time, Hurricane Francine will undergo extratropical transition across portions of the Southeast. ...FL Panhandle to the TN Valley... Thursday morning, backed surface winds and favorable hodographs for low-level rotating updrafts will be present along the Florida/Alabama coastal region. In addition, a tropical airmass with upper 70s dewpoints will support MLCAPE of 2000+ J/kg during the morning hours. South-southeasterly surface winds during the late morning will veer to south-southwesterly by the early afternoon hours which will lessen low-level shear and also lead to some dry-air advection and weaker instability during the afternoon and evening. Therefore, the primary tornado threat across the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama should be confined to the morning hours. By early-to-mid afternoon, guidance indicates at least some clearing of cloud-cover across central Alabama which may result in some surface heating and destabilization with MLCAPE of 1000 to 1500 J/kg possible. The potential for this increase in diurnal instability may overlap the period when the most favorable wind profile also exists across the same region. This could result in a threat for a few tornadic storms across central Alabama during the mid-to-late afternoon period. ...Eastern Montana vicinity... Strong forcing will overspread eastern Montana Thursday afternoon as a mid-level shortwave trough approaches the region. A well-mixed, relatively moisture-starved airmass will exist ahead of the cold front/surface low. However, in the immediate wake of the cold front, prior to the colder surface air, better moisture will wrap around the surface low. This will lead to a narrow corridor of weak to moderate instability and the potential for scattered thunderstorms. Strong effective shear (55+ knots) will exist in this post-frontal airmass where storms are anticipated. Therefore, supercells or a few bowing segments may be possible with a threat for severe wind gusts and large hail. ..Bentley.. 09/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO CENTRAL ALABAMA AND IN EASTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... On Thursday, a few tornadoes will be possible, mainly in the morning and afternoon from the Florida Panhandle to north-central Alabama. Scattered large hail and severe gusts will also be possible across the eastern Montana vicinity during the afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will become negatively tilted across the northern Rockies on Thursday afternoon as a moderately strong mid-level jet streak wraps around the southern periphery of the primary trough. At the same time, Hurricane Francine will undergo extratropical transition across portions of the Southeast. ...FL Panhandle to the TN Valley... Thursday morning, backed surface winds and favorable hodographs for low-level rotating updrafts will be present along the Florida/Alabama coastal region. In addition, a tropical airmass with upper 70s dewpoints will support MLCAPE of 2000+ J/kg during the morning hours. South-southeasterly surface winds during the late morning will veer to south-southwesterly by the early afternoon hours which will lessen low-level shear and also lead to some dry-air advection and weaker instability during the afternoon and evening. Therefore, the primary tornado threat across the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama should be confined to the morning hours. By early-to-mid afternoon, guidance indicates at least some clearing of cloud-cover across central Alabama which may result in some surface heating and destabilization with MLCAPE of 1000 to 1500 J/kg possible. The potential for this increase in diurnal instability may overlap the period when the most favorable wind profile also exists across the same region. This could result in a threat for a few tornadic storms across central Alabama during the mid-to-late afternoon period. ...Eastern Montana vicinity... Strong forcing will overspread eastern Montana Thursday afternoon as a mid-level shortwave trough approaches the region. A well-mixed, relatively moisture-starved airmass will exist ahead of the cold front/surface low. However, in the immediate wake of the cold front, prior to the colder surface air, better moisture will wrap around the surface low. This will lead to a narrow corridor of weak to moderate instability and the potential for scattered thunderstorms. Strong effective shear (55+ knots) will exist in this post-frontal airmass where storms are anticipated. Therefore, supercells or a few bowing segments may be possible with a threat for severe wind gusts and large hail. ..Bentley.. 09/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO CENTRAL ALABAMA AND IN EASTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... On Thursday, a few tornadoes will be possible, mainly in the morning and afternoon from the Florida Panhandle to north-central Alabama. Scattered large hail and severe gusts will also be possible across the eastern Montana vicinity during the afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will become negatively tilted across the northern Rockies on Thursday afternoon as a moderately strong mid-level jet streak wraps around the southern periphery of the primary trough. At the same time, Hurricane Francine will undergo extratropical transition across portions of the Southeast. ...FL Panhandle to the TN Valley... Thursday morning, backed surface winds and favorable hodographs for low-level rotating updrafts will be present along the Florida/Alabama coastal region. In addition, a tropical airmass with upper 70s dewpoints will support MLCAPE of 2000+ J/kg during the morning hours. South-southeasterly surface winds during the late morning will veer to south-southwesterly by the early afternoon hours which will lessen low-level shear and also lead to some dry-air advection and weaker instability during the afternoon and evening. Therefore, the primary tornado threat across the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama should be confined to the morning hours. By early-to-mid afternoon, guidance indicates at least some clearing of cloud-cover across central Alabama which may result in some surface heating and destabilization with MLCAPE of 1000 to 1500 J/kg possible. The potential for this increase in diurnal instability may overlap the period when the most favorable wind profile also exists across the same region. This could result in a threat for a few tornadic storms across central Alabama during the mid-to-late afternoon period. ...Eastern Montana vicinity... Strong forcing will overspread eastern Montana Thursday afternoon as a mid-level shortwave trough approaches the region. A well-mixed, relatively moisture-starved airmass will exist ahead of the cold front/surface low. However, in the immediate wake of the cold front, prior to the colder surface air, better moisture will wrap around the surface low. This will lead to a narrow corridor of weak to moderate instability and the potential for scattered thunderstorms. Strong effective shear (55+ knots) will exist in this post-frontal airmass where storms are anticipated. Therefore, supercells or a few bowing segments may be possible with a threat for severe wind gusts and large hail. ..Bentley.. 09/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO CENTRAL ALABAMA AND IN EASTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... On Thursday, a few tornadoes will be possible, mainly in the morning and afternoon from the Florida Panhandle to north-central Alabama. Scattered large hail and severe gusts will also be possible across the eastern Montana vicinity during the afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will become negatively tilted across the northern Rockies on Thursday afternoon as a moderately strong mid-level jet streak wraps around the southern periphery of the primary trough. At the same time, Hurricane Francine will undergo extratropical transition across portions of the Southeast. ...FL Panhandle to the TN Valley... Thursday morning, backed surface winds and favorable hodographs for low-level rotating updrafts will be present along the Florida/Alabama coastal region. In addition, a tropical airmass with upper 70s dewpoints will support MLCAPE of 2000+ J/kg during the morning hours. South-southeasterly surface winds during the late morning will veer to south-southwesterly by the early afternoon hours which will lessen low-level shear and also lead to some dry-air advection and weaker instability during the afternoon and evening. Therefore, the primary tornado threat across the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama should be confined to the morning hours. By early-to-mid afternoon, guidance indicates at least some clearing of cloud-cover across central Alabama which may result in some surface heating and destabilization with MLCAPE of 1000 to 1500 J/kg possible. The potential for this increase in diurnal instability may overlap the period when the most favorable wind profile also exists across the same region. This could result in a threat for a few tornadic storms across central Alabama during the mid-to-late afternoon period. ...Eastern Montana vicinity... Strong forcing will overspread eastern Montana Thursday afternoon as a mid-level shortwave trough approaches the region. A well-mixed, relatively moisture-starved airmass will exist ahead of the cold front/surface low. However, in the immediate wake of the cold front, prior to the colder surface air, better moisture will wrap around the surface low. This will lead to a narrow corridor of weak to moderate instability and the potential for scattered thunderstorms. Strong effective shear (55+ knots) will exist in this post-frontal airmass where storms are anticipated. Therefore, supercells or a few bowing segments may be possible with a threat for severe wind gusts and large hail. ..Bentley.. 09/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO CENTRAL ALABAMA AND IN EASTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... On Thursday, a few tornadoes will be possible, mainly in the morning and afternoon from the Florida Panhandle to north-central Alabama. Scattered large hail and severe gusts will also be possible across the eastern Montana vicinity during the afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will become negatively tilted across the northern Rockies on Thursday afternoon as a moderately strong mid-level jet streak wraps around the southern periphery of the primary trough. At the same time, Hurricane Francine will undergo extratropical transition across portions of the Southeast. ...FL Panhandle to the TN Valley... Thursday morning, backed surface winds and favorable hodographs for low-level rotating updrafts will be present along the Florida/Alabama coastal region. In addition, a tropical airmass with upper 70s dewpoints will support MLCAPE of 2000+ J/kg during the morning hours. South-southeasterly surface winds during the late morning will veer to south-southwesterly by the early afternoon hours which will lessen low-level shear and also lead to some dry-air advection and weaker instability during the afternoon and evening. Therefore, the primary tornado threat across the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama should be confined to the morning hours. By early-to-mid afternoon, guidance indicates at least some clearing of cloud-cover across central Alabama which may result in some surface heating and destabilization with MLCAPE of 1000 to 1500 J/kg possible. The potential for this increase in diurnal instability may overlap the period when the most favorable wind profile also exists across the same region. This could result in a threat for a few tornadic storms across central Alabama during the mid-to-late afternoon period. ...Eastern Montana vicinity... Strong forcing will overspread eastern Montana Thursday afternoon as a mid-level shortwave trough approaches the region. A well-mixed, relatively moisture-starved airmass will exist ahead of the cold front/surface low. However, in the immediate wake of the cold front, prior to the colder surface air, better moisture will wrap around the surface low. This will lead to a narrow corridor of weak to moderate instability and the potential for scattered thunderstorms. Strong effective shear (55+ knots) will exist in this post-frontal airmass where storms are anticipated. Therefore, supercells or a few bowing segments may be possible with a threat for severe wind gusts and large hail. ..Bentley.. 09/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO CENTRAL ALABAMA AND IN EASTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... On Thursday, a few tornadoes will be possible, mainly in the morning and afternoon from the Florida Panhandle to north-central Alabama. Scattered large hail and severe gusts will also be possible across the eastern Montana vicinity during the afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will become negatively tilted across the northern Rockies on Thursday afternoon as a moderately strong mid-level jet streak wraps around the southern periphery of the primary trough. At the same time, Hurricane Francine will undergo extratropical transition across portions of the Southeast. ...FL Panhandle to the TN Valley... Thursday morning, backed surface winds and favorable hodographs for low-level rotating updrafts will be present along the Florida/Alabama coastal region. In addition, a tropical airmass with upper 70s dewpoints will support MLCAPE of 2000+ J/kg during the morning hours. South-southeasterly surface winds during the late morning will veer to south-southwesterly by the early afternoon hours which will lessen low-level shear and also lead to some dry-air advection and weaker instability during the afternoon and evening. Therefore, the primary tornado threat across the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama should be confined to the morning hours. By early-to-mid afternoon, guidance indicates at least some clearing of cloud-cover across central Alabama which may result in some surface heating and destabilization with MLCAPE of 1000 to 1500 J/kg possible. The potential for this increase in diurnal instability may overlap the period when the most favorable wind profile also exists across the same region. This could result in a threat for a few tornadic storms across central Alabama during the mid-to-late afternoon period. ...Eastern Montana vicinity... Strong forcing will overspread eastern Montana Thursday afternoon as a mid-level shortwave trough approaches the region. A well-mixed, relatively moisture-starved airmass will exist ahead of the cold front/surface low. However, in the immediate wake of the cold front, prior to the colder surface air, better moisture will wrap around the surface low. This will lead to a narrow corridor of weak to moderate instability and the potential for scattered thunderstorms. Strong effective shear (55+ knots) will exist in this post-frontal airmass where storms are anticipated. Therefore, supercells or a few bowing segments may be possible with a threat for severe wind gusts and large hail. ..Bentley.. 09/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO CENTRAL ALABAMA AND IN EASTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... On Thursday, a few tornadoes will be possible, mainly in the morning and afternoon from the Florida Panhandle to north-central Alabama. Scattered large hail and severe gusts will also be possible across the eastern Montana vicinity during the afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will become negatively tilted across the northern Rockies on Thursday afternoon as a moderately strong mid-level jet streak wraps around the southern periphery of the primary trough. At the same time, Hurricane Francine will undergo extratropical transition across portions of the Southeast. ...FL Panhandle to the TN Valley... Thursday morning, backed surface winds and favorable hodographs for low-level rotating updrafts will be present along the Florida/Alabama coastal region. In addition, a tropical airmass with upper 70s dewpoints will support MLCAPE of 2000+ J/kg during the morning hours. South-southeasterly surface winds during the late morning will veer to south-southwesterly by the early afternoon hours which will lessen low-level shear and also lead to some dry-air advection and weaker instability during the afternoon and evening. Therefore, the primary tornado threat across the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama should be confined to the morning hours. By early-to-mid afternoon, guidance indicates at least some clearing of cloud-cover across central Alabama which may result in some surface heating and destabilization with MLCAPE of 1000 to 1500 J/kg possible. The potential for this increase in diurnal instability may overlap the period when the most favorable wind profile also exists across the same region. This could result in a threat for a few tornadic storms across central Alabama during the mid-to-late afternoon period. ...Eastern Montana vicinity... Strong forcing will overspread eastern Montana Thursday afternoon as a mid-level shortwave trough approaches the region. A well-mixed, relatively moisture-starved airmass will exist ahead of the cold front/surface low. However, in the immediate wake of the cold front, prior to the colder surface air, better moisture will wrap around the surface low. This will lead to a narrow corridor of weak to moderate instability and the potential for scattered thunderstorms. Strong effective shear (55+ knots) will exist in this post-frontal airmass where storms are anticipated. Therefore, supercells or a few bowing segments may be possible with a threat for severe wind gusts and large hail. ..Bentley.. 09/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO CENTRAL ALABAMA AND IN EASTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... On Thursday, a few tornadoes will be possible, mainly in the morning and afternoon from the Florida Panhandle to north-central Alabama. Scattered large hail and severe gusts will also be possible across the eastern Montana vicinity during the afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will become negatively tilted across the northern Rockies on Thursday afternoon as a moderately strong mid-level jet streak wraps around the southern periphery of the primary trough. At the same time, Hurricane Francine will undergo extratropical transition across portions of the Southeast. ...FL Panhandle to the TN Valley... Thursday morning, backed surface winds and favorable hodographs for low-level rotating updrafts will be present along the Florida/Alabama coastal region. In addition, a tropical airmass with upper 70s dewpoints will support MLCAPE of 2000+ J/kg during the morning hours. South-southeasterly surface winds during the late morning will veer to south-southwesterly by the early afternoon hours which will lessen low-level shear and also lead to some dry-air advection and weaker instability during the afternoon and evening. Therefore, the primary tornado threat across the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama should be confined to the morning hours. By early-to-mid afternoon, guidance indicates at least some clearing of cloud-cover across central Alabama which may result in some surface heating and destabilization with MLCAPE of 1000 to 1500 J/kg possible. The potential for this increase in diurnal instability may overlap the period when the most favorable wind profile also exists across the same region. This could result in a threat for a few tornadic storms across central Alabama during the mid-to-late afternoon period. ...Eastern Montana vicinity... Strong forcing will overspread eastern Montana Thursday afternoon as a mid-level shortwave trough approaches the region. A well-mixed, relatively moisture-starved airmass will exist ahead of the cold front/surface low. However, in the immediate wake of the cold front, prior to the colder surface air, better moisture will wrap around the surface low. This will lead to a narrow corridor of weak to moderate instability and the potential for scattered thunderstorms. Strong effective shear (55+ knots) will exist in this post-frontal airmass where storms are anticipated. Therefore, supercells or a few bowing segments may be possible with a threat for severe wind gusts and large hail. ..Bentley.. 09/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO CENTRAL ALABAMA AND IN EASTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... On Thursday, a few tornadoes will be possible, mainly in the morning and afternoon from the Florida Panhandle to north-central Alabama. Scattered large hail and severe gusts will also be possible across the eastern Montana vicinity during the afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will become negatively tilted across the northern Rockies on Thursday afternoon as a moderately strong mid-level jet streak wraps around the southern periphery of the primary trough. At the same time, Hurricane Francine will undergo extratropical transition across portions of the Southeast. ...FL Panhandle to the TN Valley... Thursday morning, backed surface winds and favorable hodographs for low-level rotating updrafts will be present along the Florida/Alabama coastal region. In addition, a tropical airmass with upper 70s dewpoints will support MLCAPE of 2000+ J/kg during the morning hours. South-southeasterly surface winds during the late morning will veer to south-southwesterly by the early afternoon hours which will lessen low-level shear and also lead to some dry-air advection and weaker instability during the afternoon and evening. Therefore, the primary tornado threat across the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama should be confined to the morning hours. By early-to-mid afternoon, guidance indicates at least some clearing of cloud-cover across central Alabama which may result in some surface heating and destabilization with MLCAPE of 1000 to 1500 J/kg possible. The potential for this increase in diurnal instability may overlap the period when the most favorable wind profile also exists across the same region. This could result in a threat for a few tornadic storms across central Alabama during the mid-to-late afternoon period. ...Eastern Montana vicinity... Strong forcing will overspread eastern Montana Thursday afternoon as a mid-level shortwave trough approaches the region. A well-mixed, relatively moisture-starved airmass will exist ahead of the cold front/surface low. However, in the immediate wake of the cold front, prior to the colder surface air, better moisture will wrap around the surface low. This will lead to a narrow corridor of weak to moderate instability and the potential for scattered thunderstorms. Strong effective shear (55+ knots) will exist in this post-frontal airmass where storms are anticipated. Therefore, supercells or a few bowing segments may be possible with a threat for severe wind gusts and large hail. ..Bentley.. 09/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Hurricane Francine will pose a tornado threat through tonight across the middle Gulf Coast region. ...Gulf Coast - Hurricane Francine... Hurricane Francine will continue to generally move northeastward toward the southern Louisiana coast. Reference NHC for the latest forecast track and intensity details. As Francine approaches the coast later this afternoon into evening, a considerable strengthening of east-southeasterly winds on its east-northeast periphery will lead to an increasing near-shore/inland supercell risk. This will be in tandem with a northward shift of a maritime warm front and associated moisture-rich air, which will tend to stay with about 50-75 miles within the Gulf Coast spanning southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. The supercell/tornado risk is expected to steadily increase this afternoon across southeast Louisiana, transitioning northeastward toward southeast Mississippi, southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into this evening and overnight, with a few tornadoes possible regionally. ...Northern Rockies and northern High Plains... High-based thunderstorms are expected to pose an isolated severe risk late this afternoon into evening, with severe-caliber wind gusts a possibility, along with some hail possible as well across the northern Rockies including parts of Idaho and western Montana. This is influenced by the lead portion of a Pacific Northwest upper-level trough, with preceding height falls and the exit region of the upper jet overspreading the northern Rockies and northern High Plains through tonight. Thunderstorms should increase in coverage/intensity by late afternoon, especially from far southeast Oregon into southern Idaho, southern Montana and northwest Wyoming. Around 250-750 J/kg MLCAPE coincident with 25-35 kt of effective shear will support clusters and bands of storms capable of hail and stronger wind gusts. Additional widely scattered storms are expected across the northern High Plains within a modestly moist environment. Dry sub-cloud layers will support the potential for stronger downdrafts and the possibility of some severe-caliber wind gusts. ..Guyer/Jirak.. 09/11/2024 Read more