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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across the central Gulf Coast vicinity on Wednesday into Wednesday night, in association with Tropical Cyclone Francine. ...Central Gulf Coast... Hurricane Francine is forecast to continue northeastward across the northwest Gulf of Mexico today, likely making landfall over the central LA Coast during the afternoon. Easterly/northeasterly winds are expected across much of the Southeast from the morning through the afternoon, which will likely keep the tropical airmass associated with this cyclone offshore (or only over immediate coastal portions of south-central and southeast LA). As the storm makes landfall, mid 70s dewpoints will spread northward into more of southeast LA, southern MS, southern AL, and the far western FL Panhandle during the evening. This increased low-level moisture could boast buoyancy enough for more sustained/persistent updrafts. Robust low to mid-level wind fields associated with the cyclone will support rotation within any more persistent updrafts, with some isolated low-topped supercells possible. Current guidance suggests the highest tornado potential will exist from 21Z through 04Z from far southeast LA across southern MS/AL. Mid 70s dewpoints and southerly/southeasterly surface winds will persist from southern MS/AL into the far western FL Panhandle, supporting a low-probability tornado risk through early Thursday morning. ...Parts of the Northwest/Northern Rockies... The strong shortwave trough currently off the Pacific Northwest coast is forecast to continue eastward throughout the period, while also deepening/maturing. By early Thursday morning, this shortwave trough will likely extend from the ID Chimney/northwest MT into the Great Basin. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this shortwave, spreading eastward from northern CA through the Great Basin as the wave progresses eastward. Relatively cool mid-level temperatures are already in place from the northern Intermountain West into the northern Rockies, with 500 mb temperatures from -11.5 to -14 deg C sampled on the regional 00Z soundings. Strong heating and boundary-layer mixing beneath these cool mid-level temperature will result in modest buoyancy during the afternoon ahead of the shortwave trough. Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated as large-scale ascent increases amid this destabilized and modest buoyant airmass. The stronger flow and vertical shear will be displaced south of the region, but moderate shear combined with the cool temperatures aloft could still contribute to some isolated hail. High cloud bases and resultant strong outflow could result in some gusty winds as well. ...Northern High Plains... Lee surface troughing will deepen throughout the day, with southeasterly surface winds increasing in response. Strong heating/mixing is anticipated across the region. Low-level moisture advection may help offset some of this mixing but dewpoints will likely still drop into the mid 40s to low 50s across much of the region. Highest dewpoints are anticipated across northeastern MT and western North Dakota. Even with this limited moisture, the strong heating should destabilize the airmass. Late afternoon thunderstorms are anticipated with this destabilized airmass as both increasing large-scale ascent and low-level convergence provide the lift needed for convective initiation. Vertical shear will likely be strong enough for some updraft organization (particularly across northwest MT), and high cloud bases will contribute to the potential for strong outflow capable of damaging gusts. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 09/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across the central Gulf Coast vicinity on Wednesday into Wednesday night, in association with Tropical Cyclone Francine. ...Central Gulf Coast... Hurricane Francine is forecast to continue northeastward across the northwest Gulf of Mexico today, likely making landfall over the central LA Coast during the afternoon. Easterly/northeasterly winds are expected across much of the Southeast from the morning through the afternoon, which will likely keep the tropical airmass associated with this cyclone offshore (or only over immediate coastal portions of south-central and southeast LA). As the storm makes landfall, mid 70s dewpoints will spread northward into more of southeast LA, southern MS, southern AL, and the far western FL Panhandle during the evening. This increased low-level moisture could boast buoyancy enough for more sustained/persistent updrafts. Robust low to mid-level wind fields associated with the cyclone will support rotation within any more persistent updrafts, with some isolated low-topped supercells possible. Current guidance suggests the highest tornado potential will exist from 21Z through 04Z from far southeast LA across southern MS/AL. Mid 70s dewpoints and southerly/southeasterly surface winds will persist from southern MS/AL into the far western FL Panhandle, supporting a low-probability tornado risk through early Thursday morning. ...Parts of the Northwest/Northern Rockies... The strong shortwave trough currently off the Pacific Northwest coast is forecast to continue eastward throughout the period, while also deepening/maturing. By early Thursday morning, this shortwave trough will likely extend from the ID Chimney/northwest MT into the Great Basin. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this shortwave, spreading eastward from northern CA through the Great Basin as the wave progresses eastward. Relatively cool mid-level temperatures are already in place from the northern Intermountain West into the northern Rockies, with 500 mb temperatures from -11.5 to -14 deg C sampled on the regional 00Z soundings. Strong heating and boundary-layer mixing beneath these cool mid-level temperature will result in modest buoyancy during the afternoon ahead of the shortwave trough. Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated as large-scale ascent increases amid this destabilized and modest buoyant airmass. The stronger flow and vertical shear will be displaced south of the region, but moderate shear combined with the cool temperatures aloft could still contribute to some isolated hail. High cloud bases and resultant strong outflow could result in some gusty winds as well. ...Northern High Plains... Lee surface troughing will deepen throughout the day, with southeasterly surface winds increasing in response. Strong heating/mixing is anticipated across the region. Low-level moisture advection may help offset some of this mixing but dewpoints will likely still drop into the mid 40s to low 50s across much of the region. Highest dewpoints are anticipated across northeastern MT and western North Dakota. Even with this limited moisture, the strong heating should destabilize the airmass. Late afternoon thunderstorms are anticipated with this destabilized airmass as both increasing large-scale ascent and low-level convergence provide the lift needed for convective initiation. Vertical shear will likely be strong enough for some updraft organization (particularly across northwest MT), and high cloud bases will contribute to the potential for strong outflow capable of damaging gusts. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 09/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across the central Gulf Coast vicinity on Wednesday into Wednesday night, in association with Tropical Cyclone Francine. ...Central Gulf Coast... Hurricane Francine is forecast to continue northeastward across the northwest Gulf of Mexico today, likely making landfall over the central LA Coast during the afternoon. Easterly/northeasterly winds are expected across much of the Southeast from the morning through the afternoon, which will likely keep the tropical airmass associated with this cyclone offshore (or only over immediate coastal portions of south-central and southeast LA). As the storm makes landfall, mid 70s dewpoints will spread northward into more of southeast LA, southern MS, southern AL, and the far western FL Panhandle during the evening. This increased low-level moisture could boast buoyancy enough for more sustained/persistent updrafts. Robust low to mid-level wind fields associated with the cyclone will support rotation within any more persistent updrafts, with some isolated low-topped supercells possible. Current guidance suggests the highest tornado potential will exist from 21Z through 04Z from far southeast LA across southern MS/AL. Mid 70s dewpoints and southerly/southeasterly surface winds will persist from southern MS/AL into the far western FL Panhandle, supporting a low-probability tornado risk through early Thursday morning. ...Parts of the Northwest/Northern Rockies... The strong shortwave trough currently off the Pacific Northwest coast is forecast to continue eastward throughout the period, while also deepening/maturing. By early Thursday morning, this shortwave trough will likely extend from the ID Chimney/northwest MT into the Great Basin. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this shortwave, spreading eastward from northern CA through the Great Basin as the wave progresses eastward. Relatively cool mid-level temperatures are already in place from the northern Intermountain West into the northern Rockies, with 500 mb temperatures from -11.5 to -14 deg C sampled on the regional 00Z soundings. Strong heating and boundary-layer mixing beneath these cool mid-level temperature will result in modest buoyancy during the afternoon ahead of the shortwave trough. Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated as large-scale ascent increases amid this destabilized and modest buoyant airmass. The stronger flow and vertical shear will be displaced south of the region, but moderate shear combined with the cool temperatures aloft could still contribute to some isolated hail. High cloud bases and resultant strong outflow could result in some gusty winds as well. ...Northern High Plains... Lee surface troughing will deepen throughout the day, with southeasterly surface winds increasing in response. Strong heating/mixing is anticipated across the region. Low-level moisture advection may help offset some of this mixing but dewpoints will likely still drop into the mid 40s to low 50s across much of the region. Highest dewpoints are anticipated across northeastern MT and western North Dakota. Even with this limited moisture, the strong heating should destabilize the airmass. Late afternoon thunderstorms are anticipated with this destabilized airmass as both increasing large-scale ascent and low-level convergence provide the lift needed for convective initiation. Vertical shear will likely be strong enough for some updraft organization (particularly across northwest MT), and high cloud bases will contribute to the potential for strong outflow capable of damaging gusts. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 09/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across the central Gulf Coast vicinity on Wednesday into Wednesday night, in association with Tropical Cyclone Francine. ...Central Gulf Coast... Hurricane Francine is forecast to continue northeastward across the northwest Gulf of Mexico today, likely making landfall over the central LA Coast during the afternoon. Easterly/northeasterly winds are expected across much of the Southeast from the morning through the afternoon, which will likely keep the tropical airmass associated with this cyclone offshore (or only over immediate coastal portions of south-central and southeast LA). As the storm makes landfall, mid 70s dewpoints will spread northward into more of southeast LA, southern MS, southern AL, and the far western FL Panhandle during the evening. This increased low-level moisture could boast buoyancy enough for more sustained/persistent updrafts. Robust low to mid-level wind fields associated with the cyclone will support rotation within any more persistent updrafts, with some isolated low-topped supercells possible. Current guidance suggests the highest tornado potential will exist from 21Z through 04Z from far southeast LA across southern MS/AL. Mid 70s dewpoints and southerly/southeasterly surface winds will persist from southern MS/AL into the far western FL Panhandle, supporting a low-probability tornado risk through early Thursday morning. ...Parts of the Northwest/Northern Rockies... The strong shortwave trough currently off the Pacific Northwest coast is forecast to continue eastward throughout the period, while also deepening/maturing. By early Thursday morning, this shortwave trough will likely extend from the ID Chimney/northwest MT into the Great Basin. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this shortwave, spreading eastward from northern CA through the Great Basin as the wave progresses eastward. Relatively cool mid-level temperatures are already in place from the northern Intermountain West into the northern Rockies, with 500 mb temperatures from -11.5 to -14 deg C sampled on the regional 00Z soundings. Strong heating and boundary-layer mixing beneath these cool mid-level temperature will result in modest buoyancy during the afternoon ahead of the shortwave trough. Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated as large-scale ascent increases amid this destabilized and modest buoyant airmass. The stronger flow and vertical shear will be displaced south of the region, but moderate shear combined with the cool temperatures aloft could still contribute to some isolated hail. High cloud bases and resultant strong outflow could result in some gusty winds as well. ...Northern High Plains... Lee surface troughing will deepen throughout the day, with southeasterly surface winds increasing in response. Strong heating/mixing is anticipated across the region. Low-level moisture advection may help offset some of this mixing but dewpoints will likely still drop into the mid 40s to low 50s across much of the region. Highest dewpoints are anticipated across northeastern MT and western North Dakota. Even with this limited moisture, the strong heating should destabilize the airmass. Late afternoon thunderstorms are anticipated with this destabilized airmass as both increasing large-scale ascent and low-level convergence provide the lift needed for convective initiation. Vertical shear will likely be strong enough for some updraft organization (particularly across northwest MT), and high cloud bases will contribute to the potential for strong outflow capable of damaging gusts. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 09/11/2024 Read more

099
ABPZ20 KNHC 110544
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Sep 10 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A broad low pressure system is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms from the coast of
southwestern Mexico extending offshore for several hundred miles.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
during the latter part of the week while it moves generally
north-northwestward, near the coast of southwestern Mexico and
towards the Baja California Peninsula. Regardless of development,
heavy rainfall is likely across coastal portions of southwestern and
west-central Mexico during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Drought has contributed to an unusually high number of fires with 164 forest and grassland fires in West Virginia since July 1. In the Kanawha County area, there have been 52 fires over the same time. WSAZ-TV NBC 3 (Huntington, W.V.), Sept 3, 2024 July and August are typically the off season for wildfires, but Region 5, which is comprised of Kanawha, Cabell and Putnam counties has had 49 fires since July 1. If the pre-fall fire season is busy, given the drought, then the fall fire season, which begins on October 1, could be extremely active. Across West Virginia, there have been 155 blazes since July 1 with most of them occurring in parts of the state that were particularly dry. The ground is so parched that the fire was burning into the soil. Staffing was an issue for firefighting also. There are about 65 field staff members in all of West Virginia, so volunteer firefighters step in to help, but those local fire departments are also shorthanded. WCHS-TV ABC 8 (Charleston, W.V.), Aug 29, 2024

Clyde, Texas missed a bond payment on Aug. 1 as drought led to a reduction in water sales after customers were asked to conserve water. The community’s bond insurers made the payment. Clyde was dealing with increased costs related to operations and maintenance of its waterworks and wastewater system. The bond rating and the city’s credit rating both were downgraded. Bloomberg, Aug 19, 2024

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF COASTAL AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Marginal tornado potential may reach coastal areas of Louisiana during the late overnight/early morning hours. ...01Z Update... An increasing, but low-probability, tornado threat is still anticipated tonight into early Wednesday morning over the LA Coast as rainbands associated with TC Francine move across the area. Isolated thunderstorms will continue across the central/southern Rockies and central High Plains for the next several hours before waning buoyancy and nocturnal stabilization result in diminishing coverage. Additional thunderstorms are also still expected tonight through tomorrow morning along the Pacific Northwest coast and into the northern Rockies as a strong shortwave trough approaches the Pacific Northwest coast. ..Mosier.. 09/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF COASTAL AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Marginal tornado potential may reach coastal areas of Louisiana during the late overnight/early morning hours. ...01Z Update... An increasing, but low-probability, tornado threat is still anticipated tonight into early Wednesday morning over the LA Coast as rainbands associated with TC Francine move across the area. Isolated thunderstorms will continue across the central/southern Rockies and central High Plains for the next several hours before waning buoyancy and nocturnal stabilization result in diminishing coverage. Additional thunderstorms are also still expected tonight through tomorrow morning along the Pacific Northwest coast and into the northern Rockies as a strong shortwave trough approaches the Pacific Northwest coast. ..Mosier.. 09/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF COASTAL AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Marginal tornado potential may reach coastal areas of Louisiana during the late overnight/early morning hours. ...01Z Update... An increasing, but low-probability, tornado threat is still anticipated tonight into early Wednesday morning over the LA Coast as rainbands associated with TC Francine move across the area. Isolated thunderstorms will continue across the central/southern Rockies and central High Plains for the next several hours before waning buoyancy and nocturnal stabilization result in diminishing coverage. Additional thunderstorms are also still expected tonight through tomorrow morning along the Pacific Northwest coast and into the northern Rockies as a strong shortwave trough approaches the Pacific Northwest coast. ..Mosier.. 09/11/2024 Read more

519
ABPZ20 KNHC 102302
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Sep 10 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A broad low pressure system is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms from the coast of
southwestern Mexico extending offshore for several hundred miles.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
during the latter part of the week while it moves generally
north-northwestward, near the coast of southwestern Mexico and
towards the Baja California Peninsula. Regardless of development,
heavy rainfall is likely across coastal portions of southwestern and
west-central Mexico during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

No watches are valid as of Tue Sep 10 22:24:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Sep 10 22:24:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z An upper-level trough will be lifting northeastward through the northern Rockies and into the northern Plains on Thursday. A deep lee cyclone/trough will develop in response. By the weekend, upper-level ridging will build back into the central U.S. with another upper-level trough expected to move into the West Coast late Sunday into Monday. With the precipitation expected with the initial trough this week, in combination with forecast precipitation with the trough next week, fire weather concerns this weekend into next week are fairly uncertain. ...Central/Northern Plains... Strong surface winds are anticipated on Thursday as a deep surface trough develops in the northern High Plains region. Winds of 15-25 mph (with areas of higher gusts) are possible given strong winds should extend into the lowest 2-3 km. RH will likely be lowest along the central/northern High Plains area where downslope drying will be maximized. Farther east, RH is still expected to fall to near and around 20-25%. Fine fuels will especially be supportive of fire spread. Sustained critical conditions are expected where the strongest mid-level winds and low-level jet will roughly overlap. There is some uncertainty introduced by potential convection in the surface trough, but dry/windy conditions should last long enough before that convection develops. Critical conditions could occur farther south and possibly farther east, but duration is not certain and fuels are less receptive to the east. ...Eastern Great Basin... Surface winds will likely be strong on Thursday in eastern Utah into western Colorado. Given areas of recent rainfall and the overall downward trends in ERC percentiles, the degree of fire weather concern is rather uncertain. Despite dry and windy conditions, highlights will be withheld pending updated fuel information suggesting a greater concern. ...Parts of Upper-Midwest/Ohio Valley... As Francine is forecast by NHC to move into the mid-Mississippi Valley on Thursday, there is potential for surface winds to increase in parts of Illinois/Indiana/Ohio. Forecast soundings do show some potential for at least some upper-level clouds. Depending on the degree of surface heating and the surface pressure gradient, some locally elevated fire weather appears possible given the dry fuels in place. ..Wendt.. 09/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z An upper-level trough will be lifting northeastward through the northern Rockies and into the northern Plains on Thursday. A deep lee cyclone/trough will develop in response. By the weekend, upper-level ridging will build back into the central U.S. with another upper-level trough expected to move into the West Coast late Sunday into Monday. With the precipitation expected with the initial trough this week, in combination with forecast precipitation with the trough next week, fire weather concerns this weekend into next week are fairly uncertain. ...Central/Northern Plains... Strong surface winds are anticipated on Thursday as a deep surface trough develops in the northern High Plains region. Winds of 15-25 mph (with areas of higher gusts) are possible given strong winds should extend into the lowest 2-3 km. RH will likely be lowest along the central/northern High Plains area where downslope drying will be maximized. Farther east, RH is still expected to fall to near and around 20-25%. Fine fuels will especially be supportive of fire spread. Sustained critical conditions are expected where the strongest mid-level winds and low-level jet will roughly overlap. There is some uncertainty introduced by potential convection in the surface trough, but dry/windy conditions should last long enough before that convection develops. Critical conditions could occur farther south and possibly farther east, but duration is not certain and fuels are less receptive to the east. ...Eastern Great Basin... Surface winds will likely be strong on Thursday in eastern Utah into western Colorado. Given areas of recent rainfall and the overall downward trends in ERC percentiles, the degree of fire weather concern is rather uncertain. Despite dry and windy conditions, highlights will be withheld pending updated fuel information suggesting a greater concern. ...Parts of Upper-Midwest/Ohio Valley... As Francine is forecast by NHC to move into the mid-Mississippi Valley on Thursday, there is potential for surface winds to increase in parts of Illinois/Indiana/Ohio. Forecast soundings do show some potential for at least some upper-level clouds. Depending on the degree of surface heating and the surface pressure gradient, some locally elevated fire weather appears possible given the dry fuels in place. ..Wendt.. 09/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z An upper-level trough will be lifting northeastward through the northern Rockies and into the northern Plains on Thursday. A deep lee cyclone/trough will develop in response. By the weekend, upper-level ridging will build back into the central U.S. with another upper-level trough expected to move into the West Coast late Sunday into Monday. With the precipitation expected with the initial trough this week, in combination with forecast precipitation with the trough next week, fire weather concerns this weekend into next week are fairly uncertain. ...Central/Northern Plains... Strong surface winds are anticipated on Thursday as a deep surface trough develops in the northern High Plains region. Winds of 15-25 mph (with areas of higher gusts) are possible given strong winds should extend into the lowest 2-3 km. RH will likely be lowest along the central/northern High Plains area where downslope drying will be maximized. Farther east, RH is still expected to fall to near and around 20-25%. Fine fuels will especially be supportive of fire spread. Sustained critical conditions are expected where the strongest mid-level winds and low-level jet will roughly overlap. There is some uncertainty introduced by potential convection in the surface trough, but dry/windy conditions should last long enough before that convection develops. Critical conditions could occur farther south and possibly farther east, but duration is not certain and fuels are less receptive to the east. ...Eastern Great Basin... Surface winds will likely be strong on Thursday in eastern Utah into western Colorado. Given areas of recent rainfall and the overall downward trends in ERC percentiles, the degree of fire weather concern is rather uncertain. Despite dry and windy conditions, highlights will be withheld pending updated fuel information suggesting a greater concern. ...Parts of Upper-Midwest/Ohio Valley... As Francine is forecast by NHC to move into the mid-Mississippi Valley on Thursday, there is potential for surface winds to increase in parts of Illinois/Indiana/Ohio. Forecast soundings do show some potential for at least some upper-level clouds. Depending on the degree of surface heating and the surface pressure gradient, some locally elevated fire weather appears possible given the dry fuels in place. ..Wendt.. 09/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z An upper-level trough will be lifting northeastward through the northern Rockies and into the northern Plains on Thursday. A deep lee cyclone/trough will develop in response. By the weekend, upper-level ridging will build back into the central U.S. with another upper-level trough expected to move into the West Coast late Sunday into Monday. With the precipitation expected with the initial trough this week, in combination with forecast precipitation with the trough next week, fire weather concerns this weekend into next week are fairly uncertain. ...Central/Northern Plains... Strong surface winds are anticipated on Thursday as a deep surface trough develops in the northern High Plains region. Winds of 15-25 mph (with areas of higher gusts) are possible given strong winds should extend into the lowest 2-3 km. RH will likely be lowest along the central/northern High Plains area where downslope drying will be maximized. Farther east, RH is still expected to fall to near and around 20-25%. Fine fuels will especially be supportive of fire spread. Sustained critical conditions are expected where the strongest mid-level winds and low-level jet will roughly overlap. There is some uncertainty introduced by potential convection in the surface trough, but dry/windy conditions should last long enough before that convection develops. Critical conditions could occur farther south and possibly farther east, but duration is not certain and fuels are less receptive to the east. ...Eastern Great Basin... Surface winds will likely be strong on Thursday in eastern Utah into western Colorado. Given areas of recent rainfall and the overall downward trends in ERC percentiles, the degree of fire weather concern is rather uncertain. Despite dry and windy conditions, highlights will be withheld pending updated fuel information suggesting a greater concern. ...Parts of Upper-Midwest/Ohio Valley... As Francine is forecast by NHC to move into the mid-Mississippi Valley on Thursday, there is potential for surface winds to increase in parts of Illinois/Indiana/Ohio. Forecast soundings do show some potential for at least some upper-level clouds. Depending on the degree of surface heating and the surface pressure gradient, some locally elevated fire weather appears possible given the dry fuels in place. ..Wendt.. 09/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z An upper-level trough will be lifting northeastward through the northern Rockies and into the northern Plains on Thursday. A deep lee cyclone/trough will develop in response. By the weekend, upper-level ridging will build back into the central U.S. with another upper-level trough expected to move into the West Coast late Sunday into Monday. With the precipitation expected with the initial trough this week, in combination with forecast precipitation with the trough next week, fire weather concerns this weekend into next week are fairly uncertain. ...Central/Northern Plains... Strong surface winds are anticipated on Thursday as a deep surface trough develops in the northern High Plains region. Winds of 15-25 mph (with areas of higher gusts) are possible given strong winds should extend into the lowest 2-3 km. RH will likely be lowest along the central/northern High Plains area where downslope drying will be maximized. Farther east, RH is still expected to fall to near and around 20-25%. Fine fuels will especially be supportive of fire spread. Sustained critical conditions are expected where the strongest mid-level winds and low-level jet will roughly overlap. There is some uncertainty introduced by potential convection in the surface trough, but dry/windy conditions should last long enough before that convection develops. Critical conditions could occur farther south and possibly farther east, but duration is not certain and fuels are less receptive to the east. ...Eastern Great Basin... Surface winds will likely be strong on Thursday in eastern Utah into western Colorado. Given areas of recent rainfall and the overall downward trends in ERC percentiles, the degree of fire weather concern is rather uncertain. Despite dry and windy conditions, highlights will be withheld pending updated fuel information suggesting a greater concern. ...Parts of Upper-Midwest/Ohio Valley... As Francine is forecast by NHC to move into the mid-Mississippi Valley on Thursday, there is potential for surface winds to increase in parts of Illinois/Indiana/Ohio. Forecast soundings do show some potential for at least some upper-level clouds. Depending on the degree of surface heating and the surface pressure gradient, some locally elevated fire weather appears possible given the dry fuels in place. ..Wendt.. 09/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z An upper-level trough will be lifting northeastward through the northern Rockies and into the northern Plains on Thursday. A deep lee cyclone/trough will develop in response. By the weekend, upper-level ridging will build back into the central U.S. with another upper-level trough expected to move into the West Coast late Sunday into Monday. With the precipitation expected with the initial trough this week, in combination with forecast precipitation with the trough next week, fire weather concerns this weekend into next week are fairly uncertain. ...Central/Northern Plains... Strong surface winds are anticipated on Thursday as a deep surface trough develops in the northern High Plains region. Winds of 15-25 mph (with areas of higher gusts) are possible given strong winds should extend into the lowest 2-3 km. RH will likely be lowest along the central/northern High Plains area where downslope drying will be maximized. Farther east, RH is still expected to fall to near and around 20-25%. Fine fuels will especially be supportive of fire spread. Sustained critical conditions are expected where the strongest mid-level winds and low-level jet will roughly overlap. There is some uncertainty introduced by potential convection in the surface trough, but dry/windy conditions should last long enough before that convection develops. Critical conditions could occur farther south and possibly farther east, but duration is not certain and fuels are less receptive to the east. ...Eastern Great Basin... Surface winds will likely be strong on Thursday in eastern Utah into western Colorado. Given areas of recent rainfall and the overall downward trends in ERC percentiles, the degree of fire weather concern is rather uncertain. Despite dry and windy conditions, highlights will be withheld pending updated fuel information suggesting a greater concern. ...Parts of Upper-Midwest/Ohio Valley... As Francine is forecast by NHC to move into the mid-Mississippi Valley on Thursday, there is potential for surface winds to increase in parts of Illinois/Indiana/Ohio. Forecast soundings do show some potential for at least some upper-level clouds. Depending on the degree of surface heating and the surface pressure gradient, some locally elevated fire weather appears possible given the dry fuels in place. ..Wendt.. 09/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z An upper-level trough will be lifting northeastward through the northern Rockies and into the northern Plains on Thursday. A deep lee cyclone/trough will develop in response. By the weekend, upper-level ridging will build back into the central U.S. with another upper-level trough expected to move into the West Coast late Sunday into Monday. With the precipitation expected with the initial trough this week, in combination with forecast precipitation with the trough next week, fire weather concerns this weekend into next week are fairly uncertain. ...Central/Northern Plains... Strong surface winds are anticipated on Thursday as a deep surface trough develops in the northern High Plains region. Winds of 15-25 mph (with areas of higher gusts) are possible given strong winds should extend into the lowest 2-3 km. RH will likely be lowest along the central/northern High Plains area where downslope drying will be maximized. Farther east, RH is still expected to fall to near and around 20-25%. Fine fuels will especially be supportive of fire spread. Sustained critical conditions are expected where the strongest mid-level winds and low-level jet will roughly overlap. There is some uncertainty introduced by potential convection in the surface trough, but dry/windy conditions should last long enough before that convection develops. Critical conditions could occur farther south and possibly farther east, but duration is not certain and fuels are less receptive to the east. ...Eastern Great Basin... Surface winds will likely be strong on Thursday in eastern Utah into western Colorado. Given areas of recent rainfall and the overall downward trends in ERC percentiles, the degree of fire weather concern is rather uncertain. Despite dry and windy conditions, highlights will be withheld pending updated fuel information suggesting a greater concern. ...Parts of Upper-Midwest/Ohio Valley... As Francine is forecast by NHC to move into the mid-Mississippi Valley on Thursday, there is potential for surface winds to increase in parts of Illinois/Indiana/Ohio. Forecast soundings do show some potential for at least some upper-level clouds. Depending on the degree of surface heating and the surface pressure gradient, some locally elevated fire weather appears possible given the dry fuels in place. ..Wendt.. 09/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more