Aggregator

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE TN VALLEY TO THE FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A couple brief tornadoes and locally damaging winds are possible across a part of the Southeast on Friday morning into the afternoon. ...Southeast... The remnants of TC Francine are expected to decay in place near the AR/TN/MO border vicinity on Friday, with greater weakening of low-level winds relative to today. Still, the strongest lingering belt of low-level southeasterlies should persist through Friday morning into the afternoon to the east, centered on the TN Valley. This should yield moderate SRH coincident with the northern extent of weak surface-based instability from central AL/far western GA northward into Middle TN. This corridor will likely be narrow at any one time and steadily shift east through the day. A drier air mass with veered low-level winds is expected to its west, and cooler surface temps beneath pervasive cloudiness should occur to its northeast. A couple brief tornadoes will be possible, mainly from mid-morning into the afternoon. Low-level winds will diminish with southern extent to the FL Panhandle, but moderate mid-level southwesterlies should yield adequate deep-layer shear for transient mid-level rotation. Modest boundary-layer heating of a residual tropical air mass should occur within a corridor ahead of an occluded surface front. Locally strong gusts capable of sporadic tree damage remain possible. ..Grams.. 09/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE TN VALLEY TO THE FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A couple brief tornadoes and locally damaging winds are possible across a part of the Southeast on Friday morning into the afternoon. ...Southeast... The remnants of TC Francine are expected to decay in place near the AR/TN/MO border vicinity on Friday, with greater weakening of low-level winds relative to today. Still, the strongest lingering belt of low-level southeasterlies should persist through Friday morning into the afternoon to the east, centered on the TN Valley. This should yield moderate SRH coincident with the northern extent of weak surface-based instability from central AL/far western GA northward into Middle TN. This corridor will likely be narrow at any one time and steadily shift east through the day. A drier air mass with veered low-level winds is expected to its west, and cooler surface temps beneath pervasive cloudiness should occur to its northeast. A couple brief tornadoes will be possible, mainly from mid-morning into the afternoon. Low-level winds will diminish with southern extent to the FL Panhandle, but moderate mid-level southwesterlies should yield adequate deep-layer shear for transient mid-level rotation. Modest boundary-layer heating of a residual tropical air mass should occur within a corridor ahead of an occluded surface front. Locally strong gusts capable of sporadic tree damage remain possible. ..Grams.. 09/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE TN VALLEY TO THE FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A couple brief tornadoes and locally damaging winds are possible across a part of the Southeast on Friday morning into the afternoon. ...Southeast... The remnants of TC Francine are expected to decay in place near the AR/TN/MO border vicinity on Friday, with greater weakening of low-level winds relative to today. Still, the strongest lingering belt of low-level southeasterlies should persist through Friday morning into the afternoon to the east, centered on the TN Valley. This should yield moderate SRH coincident with the northern extent of weak surface-based instability from central AL/far western GA northward into Middle TN. This corridor will likely be narrow at any one time and steadily shift east through the day. A drier air mass with veered low-level winds is expected to its west, and cooler surface temps beneath pervasive cloudiness should occur to its northeast. A couple brief tornadoes will be possible, mainly from mid-morning into the afternoon. Low-level winds will diminish with southern extent to the FL Panhandle, but moderate mid-level southwesterlies should yield adequate deep-layer shear for transient mid-level rotation. Modest boundary-layer heating of a residual tropical air mass should occur within a corridor ahead of an occluded surface front. Locally strong gusts capable of sporadic tree damage remain possible. ..Grams.. 09/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH TS FRANCINE AND OVER THE EASTERN MONTANA REGION... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible today, mainly in the morning and afternoon from the Florida Panhandle to north-central Alabama. Scattered large hail and severe gusts are expected across the eastern Montana vicinity during the afternoon to early evening. ...Tropical Storm Francine... TS Francine continues its slow drift inland, and is expected to progress across southern/central MS to near Memphis by the end of the period. Strong low-level shear will spread/develop north, to the immediate north-east of the center of circulation. As is typical, poor lapse rates will limit buoyancy today, and latest model guidance suggests only a narrow corridor of weak-modest 0-3km lapse rates, primarily across southwestern into west-central AL. Robust, long-lived supercells have struggled to develop with this system, and forecast thermodynamic profiles are not particularly impressive. Even so, scattered lightning is noted with deeper updrafts offshore, along with a few supercells. This activity will spread inland later this morning and there remains some concern for a few tornadoes where boundary-layer destabilization is maximized. ...Eastern Montana Region... Strong upper trough has progressed into the northern Intermountain region, from western ID into NV. This trough will advance into the northern Rockies later today as a 500mb speed max translates across UT into eastern WY/MT. This evolution will warrant a cold front surging into eastern MT/northwest WY by 18z. Greatest boundary-layer heating will initially be across eastern WY, but significant surface heating across eastern MT should lead to steep 0-3km lapse rates and convective temperatures will likely be breached across northern WY/southern MT by 20z. Deep convection should readily develop over the Big Horn Mountains/surrounding higher terrain as the left-exit region of the 500mb speed max approaches. Latest HREF guidance strongly favors robust convection evolving by mid afternoon, with several long-lived supercells depicted in most members. Forecast soundings favor sustained rotating updrafts and high-based convection should generate strong winds, and perhaps large hail. While PWs are seasonally low, ample buoyancy will likely exist for allowing this activity to spread into western ND later in the evening, especially given the strengthening LLJ across this portion of the Dakotas after sunset. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 09/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH TS FRANCINE AND OVER THE EASTERN MONTANA REGION... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible today, mainly in the morning and afternoon from the Florida Panhandle to north-central Alabama. Scattered large hail and severe gusts are expected across the eastern Montana vicinity during the afternoon to early evening. ...Tropical Storm Francine... TS Francine continues its slow drift inland, and is expected to progress across southern/central MS to near Memphis by the end of the period. Strong low-level shear will spread/develop north, to the immediate north-east of the center of circulation. As is typical, poor lapse rates will limit buoyancy today, and latest model guidance suggests only a narrow corridor of weak-modest 0-3km lapse rates, primarily across southwestern into west-central AL. Robust, long-lived supercells have struggled to develop with this system, and forecast thermodynamic profiles are not particularly impressive. Even so, scattered lightning is noted with deeper updrafts offshore, along with a few supercells. This activity will spread inland later this morning and there remains some concern for a few tornadoes where boundary-layer destabilization is maximized. ...Eastern Montana Region... Strong upper trough has progressed into the northern Intermountain region, from western ID into NV. This trough will advance into the northern Rockies later today as a 500mb speed max translates across UT into eastern WY/MT. This evolution will warrant a cold front surging into eastern MT/northwest WY by 18z. Greatest boundary-layer heating will initially be across eastern WY, but significant surface heating across eastern MT should lead to steep 0-3km lapse rates and convective temperatures will likely be breached across northern WY/southern MT by 20z. Deep convection should readily develop over the Big Horn Mountains/surrounding higher terrain as the left-exit region of the 500mb speed max approaches. Latest HREF guidance strongly favors robust convection evolving by mid afternoon, with several long-lived supercells depicted in most members. Forecast soundings favor sustained rotating updrafts and high-based convection should generate strong winds, and perhaps large hail. While PWs are seasonally low, ample buoyancy will likely exist for allowing this activity to spread into western ND later in the evening, especially given the strengthening LLJ across this portion of the Dakotas after sunset. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 09/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH TS FRANCINE AND OVER THE EASTERN MONTANA REGION... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible today, mainly in the morning and afternoon from the Florida Panhandle to north-central Alabama. Scattered large hail and severe gusts are expected across the eastern Montana vicinity during the afternoon to early evening. ...Tropical Storm Francine... TS Francine continues its slow drift inland, and is expected to progress across southern/central MS to near Memphis by the end of the period. Strong low-level shear will spread/develop north, to the immediate north-east of the center of circulation. As is typical, poor lapse rates will limit buoyancy today, and latest model guidance suggests only a narrow corridor of weak-modest 0-3km lapse rates, primarily across southwestern into west-central AL. Robust, long-lived supercells have struggled to develop with this system, and forecast thermodynamic profiles are not particularly impressive. Even so, scattered lightning is noted with deeper updrafts offshore, along with a few supercells. This activity will spread inland later this morning and there remains some concern for a few tornadoes where boundary-layer destabilization is maximized. ...Eastern Montana Region... Strong upper trough has progressed into the northern Intermountain region, from western ID into NV. This trough will advance into the northern Rockies later today as a 500mb speed max translates across UT into eastern WY/MT. This evolution will warrant a cold front surging into eastern MT/northwest WY by 18z. Greatest boundary-layer heating will initially be across eastern WY, but significant surface heating across eastern MT should lead to steep 0-3km lapse rates and convective temperatures will likely be breached across northern WY/southern MT by 20z. Deep convection should readily develop over the Big Horn Mountains/surrounding higher terrain as the left-exit region of the 500mb speed max approaches. Latest HREF guidance strongly favors robust convection evolving by mid afternoon, with several long-lived supercells depicted in most members. Forecast soundings favor sustained rotating updrafts and high-based convection should generate strong winds, and perhaps large hail. While PWs are seasonally low, ample buoyancy will likely exist for allowing this activity to spread into western ND later in the evening, especially given the strengthening LLJ across this portion of the Dakotas after sunset. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 09/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH TS FRANCINE AND OVER THE EASTERN MONTANA REGION... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible today, mainly in the morning and afternoon from the Florida Panhandle to north-central Alabama. Scattered large hail and severe gusts are expected across the eastern Montana vicinity during the afternoon to early evening. ...Tropical Storm Francine... TS Francine continues its slow drift inland, and is expected to progress across southern/central MS to near Memphis by the end of the period. Strong low-level shear will spread/develop north, to the immediate north-east of the center of circulation. As is typical, poor lapse rates will limit buoyancy today, and latest model guidance suggests only a narrow corridor of weak-modest 0-3km lapse rates, primarily across southwestern into west-central AL. Robust, long-lived supercells have struggled to develop with this system, and forecast thermodynamic profiles are not particularly impressive. Even so, scattered lightning is noted with deeper updrafts offshore, along with a few supercells. This activity will spread inland later this morning and there remains some concern for a few tornadoes where boundary-layer destabilization is maximized. ...Eastern Montana Region... Strong upper trough has progressed into the northern Intermountain region, from western ID into NV. This trough will advance into the northern Rockies later today as a 500mb speed max translates across UT into eastern WY/MT. This evolution will warrant a cold front surging into eastern MT/northwest WY by 18z. Greatest boundary-layer heating will initially be across eastern WY, but significant surface heating across eastern MT should lead to steep 0-3km lapse rates and convective temperatures will likely be breached across northern WY/southern MT by 20z. Deep convection should readily develop over the Big Horn Mountains/surrounding higher terrain as the left-exit region of the 500mb speed max approaches. Latest HREF guidance strongly favors robust convection evolving by mid afternoon, with several long-lived supercells depicted in most members. Forecast soundings favor sustained rotating updrafts and high-based convection should generate strong winds, and perhaps large hail. While PWs are seasonally low, ample buoyancy will likely exist for allowing this activity to spread into western ND later in the evening, especially given the strengthening LLJ across this portion of the Dakotas after sunset. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 09/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH TS FRANCINE AND OVER THE EASTERN MONTANA REGION... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible today, mainly in the morning and afternoon from the Florida Panhandle to north-central Alabama. Scattered large hail and severe gusts are expected across the eastern Montana vicinity during the afternoon to early evening. ...Tropical Storm Francine... TS Francine continues its slow drift inland, and is expected to progress across southern/central MS to near Memphis by the end of the period. Strong low-level shear will spread/develop north, to the immediate north-east of the center of circulation. As is typical, poor lapse rates will limit buoyancy today, and latest model guidance suggests only a narrow corridor of weak-modest 0-3km lapse rates, primarily across southwestern into west-central AL. Robust, long-lived supercells have struggled to develop with this system, and forecast thermodynamic profiles are not particularly impressive. Even so, scattered lightning is noted with deeper updrafts offshore, along with a few supercells. This activity will spread inland later this morning and there remains some concern for a few tornadoes where boundary-layer destabilization is maximized. ...Eastern Montana Region... Strong upper trough has progressed into the northern Intermountain region, from western ID into NV. This trough will advance into the northern Rockies later today as a 500mb speed max translates across UT into eastern WY/MT. This evolution will warrant a cold front surging into eastern MT/northwest WY by 18z. Greatest boundary-layer heating will initially be across eastern WY, but significant surface heating across eastern MT should lead to steep 0-3km lapse rates and convective temperatures will likely be breached across northern WY/southern MT by 20z. Deep convection should readily develop over the Big Horn Mountains/surrounding higher terrain as the left-exit region of the 500mb speed max approaches. Latest HREF guidance strongly favors robust convection evolving by mid afternoon, with several long-lived supercells depicted in most members. Forecast soundings favor sustained rotating updrafts and high-based convection should generate strong winds, and perhaps large hail. While PWs are seasonally low, ample buoyancy will likely exist for allowing this activity to spread into western ND later in the evening, especially given the strengthening LLJ across this portion of the Dakotas after sunset. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 09/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH TS FRANCINE AND OVER THE EASTERN MONTANA REGION... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible today, mainly in the morning and afternoon from the Florida Panhandle to north-central Alabama. Scattered large hail and severe gusts are expected across the eastern Montana vicinity during the afternoon to early evening. ...Tropical Storm Francine... TS Francine continues its slow drift inland, and is expected to progress across southern/central MS to near Memphis by the end of the period. Strong low-level shear will spread/develop north, to the immediate north-east of the center of circulation. As is typical, poor lapse rates will limit buoyancy today, and latest model guidance suggests only a narrow corridor of weak-modest 0-3km lapse rates, primarily across southwestern into west-central AL. Robust, long-lived supercells have struggled to develop with this system, and forecast thermodynamic profiles are not particularly impressive. Even so, scattered lightning is noted with deeper updrafts offshore, along with a few supercells. This activity will spread inland later this morning and there remains some concern for a few tornadoes where boundary-layer destabilization is maximized. ...Eastern Montana Region... Strong upper trough has progressed into the northern Intermountain region, from western ID into NV. This trough will advance into the northern Rockies later today as a 500mb speed max translates across UT into eastern WY/MT. This evolution will warrant a cold front surging into eastern MT/northwest WY by 18z. Greatest boundary-layer heating will initially be across eastern WY, but significant surface heating across eastern MT should lead to steep 0-3km lapse rates and convective temperatures will likely be breached across northern WY/southern MT by 20z. Deep convection should readily develop over the Big Horn Mountains/surrounding higher terrain as the left-exit region of the 500mb speed max approaches. Latest HREF guidance strongly favors robust convection evolving by mid afternoon, with several long-lived supercells depicted in most members. Forecast soundings favor sustained rotating updrafts and high-based convection should generate strong winds, and perhaps large hail. While PWs are seasonally low, ample buoyancy will likely exist for allowing this activity to spread into western ND later in the evening, especially given the strengthening LLJ across this portion of the Dakotas after sunset. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 09/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH TS FRANCINE AND OVER THE EASTERN MONTANA REGION... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible today, mainly in the morning and afternoon from the Florida Panhandle to north-central Alabama. Scattered large hail and severe gusts are expected across the eastern Montana vicinity during the afternoon to early evening. ...Tropical Storm Francine... TS Francine continues its slow drift inland, and is expected to progress across southern/central MS to near Memphis by the end of the period. Strong low-level shear will spread/develop north, to the immediate north-east of the center of circulation. As is typical, poor lapse rates will limit buoyancy today, and latest model guidance suggests only a narrow corridor of weak-modest 0-3km lapse rates, primarily across southwestern into west-central AL. Robust, long-lived supercells have struggled to develop with this system, and forecast thermodynamic profiles are not particularly impressive. Even so, scattered lightning is noted with deeper updrafts offshore, along with a few supercells. This activity will spread inland later this morning and there remains some concern for a few tornadoes where boundary-layer destabilization is maximized. ...Eastern Montana Region... Strong upper trough has progressed into the northern Intermountain region, from western ID into NV. This trough will advance into the northern Rockies later today as a 500mb speed max translates across UT into eastern WY/MT. This evolution will warrant a cold front surging into eastern MT/northwest WY by 18z. Greatest boundary-layer heating will initially be across eastern WY, but significant surface heating across eastern MT should lead to steep 0-3km lapse rates and convective temperatures will likely be breached across northern WY/southern MT by 20z. Deep convection should readily develop over the Big Horn Mountains/surrounding higher terrain as the left-exit region of the 500mb speed max approaches. Latest HREF guidance strongly favors robust convection evolving by mid afternoon, with several long-lived supercells depicted in most members. Forecast soundings favor sustained rotating updrafts and high-based convection should generate strong winds, and perhaps large hail. While PWs are seasonally low, ample buoyancy will likely exist for allowing this activity to spread into western ND later in the evening, especially given the strengthening LLJ across this portion of the Dakotas after sunset. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 09/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH TS FRANCINE AND OVER THE EASTERN MONTANA REGION... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible today, mainly in the morning and afternoon from the Florida Panhandle to north-central Alabama. Scattered large hail and severe gusts are expected across the eastern Montana vicinity during the afternoon to early evening. ...Tropical Storm Francine... TS Francine continues its slow drift inland, and is expected to progress across southern/central MS to near Memphis by the end of the period. Strong low-level shear will spread/develop north, to the immediate north-east of the center of circulation. As is typical, poor lapse rates will limit buoyancy today, and latest model guidance suggests only a narrow corridor of weak-modest 0-3km lapse rates, primarily across southwestern into west-central AL. Robust, long-lived supercells have struggled to develop with this system, and forecast thermodynamic profiles are not particularly impressive. Even so, scattered lightning is noted with deeper updrafts offshore, along with a few supercells. This activity will spread inland later this morning and there remains some concern for a few tornadoes where boundary-layer destabilization is maximized. ...Eastern Montana Region... Strong upper trough has progressed into the northern Intermountain region, from western ID into NV. This trough will advance into the northern Rockies later today as a 500mb speed max translates across UT into eastern WY/MT. This evolution will warrant a cold front surging into eastern MT/northwest WY by 18z. Greatest boundary-layer heating will initially be across eastern WY, but significant surface heating across eastern MT should lead to steep 0-3km lapse rates and convective temperatures will likely be breached across northern WY/southern MT by 20z. Deep convection should readily develop over the Big Horn Mountains/surrounding higher terrain as the left-exit region of the 500mb speed max approaches. Latest HREF guidance strongly favors robust convection evolving by mid afternoon, with several long-lived supercells depicted in most members. Forecast soundings favor sustained rotating updrafts and high-based convection should generate strong winds, and perhaps large hail. While PWs are seasonally low, ample buoyancy will likely exist for allowing this activity to spread into western ND later in the evening, especially given the strengthening LLJ across this portion of the Dakotas after sunset. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 09/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH TS FRANCINE AND OVER THE EASTERN MONTANA REGION... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible today, mainly in the morning and afternoon from the Florida Panhandle to north-central Alabama. Scattered large hail and severe gusts are expected across the eastern Montana vicinity during the afternoon to early evening. ...Tropical Storm Francine... TS Francine continues its slow drift inland, and is expected to progress across southern/central MS to near Memphis by the end of the period. Strong low-level shear will spread/develop north, to the immediate north-east of the center of circulation. As is typical, poor lapse rates will limit buoyancy today, and latest model guidance suggests only a narrow corridor of weak-modest 0-3km lapse rates, primarily across southwestern into west-central AL. Robust, long-lived supercells have struggled to develop with this system, and forecast thermodynamic profiles are not particularly impressive. Even so, scattered lightning is noted with deeper updrafts offshore, along with a few supercells. This activity will spread inland later this morning and there remains some concern for a few tornadoes where boundary-layer destabilization is maximized. ...Eastern Montana Region... Strong upper trough has progressed into the northern Intermountain region, from western ID into NV. This trough will advance into the northern Rockies later today as a 500mb speed max translates across UT into eastern WY/MT. This evolution will warrant a cold front surging into eastern MT/northwest WY by 18z. Greatest boundary-layer heating will initially be across eastern WY, but significant surface heating across eastern MT should lead to steep 0-3km lapse rates and convective temperatures will likely be breached across northern WY/southern MT by 20z. Deep convection should readily develop over the Big Horn Mountains/surrounding higher terrain as the left-exit region of the 500mb speed max approaches. Latest HREF guidance strongly favors robust convection evolving by mid afternoon, with several long-lived supercells depicted in most members. Forecast soundings favor sustained rotating updrafts and high-based convection should generate strong winds, and perhaps large hail. While PWs are seasonally low, ample buoyancy will likely exist for allowing this activity to spread into western ND later in the evening, especially given the strengthening LLJ across this portion of the Dakotas after sunset. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 09/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH TS FRANCINE AND OVER THE EASTERN MONTANA REGION... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible today, mainly in the morning and afternoon from the Florida Panhandle to north-central Alabama. Scattered large hail and severe gusts are expected across the eastern Montana vicinity during the afternoon to early evening. ...Tropical Storm Francine... TS Francine continues its slow drift inland, and is expected to progress across southern/central MS to near Memphis by the end of the period. Strong low-level shear will spread/develop north, to the immediate north-east of the center of circulation. As is typical, poor lapse rates will limit buoyancy today, and latest model guidance suggests only a narrow corridor of weak-modest 0-3km lapse rates, primarily across southwestern into west-central AL. Robust, long-lived supercells have struggled to develop with this system, and forecast thermodynamic profiles are not particularly impressive. Even so, scattered lightning is noted with deeper updrafts offshore, along with a few supercells. This activity will spread inland later this morning and there remains some concern for a few tornadoes where boundary-layer destabilization is maximized. ...Eastern Montana Region... Strong upper trough has progressed into the northern Intermountain region, from western ID into NV. This trough will advance into the northern Rockies later today as a 500mb speed max translates across UT into eastern WY/MT. This evolution will warrant a cold front surging into eastern MT/northwest WY by 18z. Greatest boundary-layer heating will initially be across eastern WY, but significant surface heating across eastern MT should lead to steep 0-3km lapse rates and convective temperatures will likely be breached across northern WY/southern MT by 20z. Deep convection should readily develop over the Big Horn Mountains/surrounding higher terrain as the left-exit region of the 500mb speed max approaches. Latest HREF guidance strongly favors robust convection evolving by mid afternoon, with several long-lived supercells depicted in most members. Forecast soundings favor sustained rotating updrafts and high-based convection should generate strong winds, and perhaps large hail. While PWs are seasonally low, ample buoyancy will likely exist for allowing this activity to spread into western ND later in the evening, especially given the strengthening LLJ across this portion of the Dakotas after sunset. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 09/12/2024 Read more

WW 0668 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 668 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE GPT TO 35 S PIB TO 35 SW PIB TO 30 WNW PIB. ..KERR..09/12/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...LIX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 668 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-097-129-120640- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN MOBILE WASHINGTON FLC005-033-091-113-131-120640- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA WALTON MSC035-039-041-045-047-059-073-109-111-131-120640- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FORREST GEORGE GREENE HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON LAMAR PEARL RIVER PERRY Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 120535
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Sep 11 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP93):
A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles
west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing a large area of
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the next couple of days while the system moves
slowly northwestward, near the coast of southwestern Mexico and
toward the Baja California Peninsula. Regardless of development,
heavy rainfall is likely across coastal portions of southwestern and
west-central Mexico during the next day or two. Interests in the
southern Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of
this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

WW 0668 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0668 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0668 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0668 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0667 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 667 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 105 SSE BVE TO 45 ESE BVE TO 30 ENE BVE TO 30 ESE MSY TO 5 W MSY TO 25 W MSY TO 50 WNW MSY TO 55 SW MCB. ..JEWELL..09/12/24 ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 667 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC063-071-087-095-103-105-117-120240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE LIVINGSTON ORLEANS ST. BERNARD ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA WASHINGTON MSC045-047-059-109-120240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON PEARL RIVER GMZ530-532-534-536-538-555-557-575-577-632-650-670-120240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0667 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 667 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 105 SSE BVE TO 45 ESE BVE TO 30 ENE BVE TO 30 ESE MSY TO 5 W MSY TO 25 W MSY TO 50 WNW MSY TO 55 SW MCB. ..JEWELL..09/12/24 ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 667 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC063-071-087-095-103-105-117-120240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE LIVINGSTON ORLEANS ST. BERNARD ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA WASHINGTON MSC045-047-059-109-120240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON PEARL RIVER GMZ530-532-534-536-538-555-557-575-577-632-650-670-120240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more