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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20z Update... No changes were made to the prior outlook. Gusty post-frontal winds are possible across parts of the Dakotas, through the Cascade Gaps and parts of northern CA. However, much of the fuels over these areas should remain poorly receptive to fire spread following recent precipitation. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 09/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of a midlevel low moving northeastward from the northern Plains into Canada, an expansive surface high will develop across much of the West. At the same time, a deep midlevel low and strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread southern CA and the Lower CO River Valley. Overall, this pattern will limit the overlap of strong surface winds and warm/dry boundary-layer conditions atop dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20z Update... No changes were made to the prior outlook. Gusty post-frontal winds are possible across parts of the Dakotas, through the Cascade Gaps and parts of northern CA. However, much of the fuels over these areas should remain poorly receptive to fire spread following recent precipitation. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 09/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of a midlevel low moving northeastward from the northern Plains into Canada, an expansive surface high will develop across much of the West. At the same time, a deep midlevel low and strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread southern CA and the Lower CO River Valley. Overall, this pattern will limit the overlap of strong surface winds and warm/dry boundary-layer conditions atop dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20z Update... No changes were made to the prior outlook. Gusty post-frontal winds are possible across parts of the Dakotas, through the Cascade Gaps and parts of northern CA. However, much of the fuels over these areas should remain poorly receptive to fire spread following recent precipitation. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 09/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of a midlevel low moving northeastward from the northern Plains into Canada, an expansive surface high will develop across much of the West. At the same time, a deep midlevel low and strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread southern CA and the Lower CO River Valley. Overall, this pattern will limit the overlap of strong surface winds and warm/dry boundary-layer conditions atop dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20z Update... No changes were made to the prior outlook. Gusty post-frontal winds are possible across parts of the Dakotas, through the Cascade Gaps and parts of northern CA. However, much of the fuels over these areas should remain poorly receptive to fire spread following recent precipitation. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 09/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of a midlevel low moving northeastward from the northern Plains into Canada, an expansive surface high will develop across much of the West. At the same time, a deep midlevel low and strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread southern CA and the Lower CO River Valley. Overall, this pattern will limit the overlap of strong surface winds and warm/dry boundary-layer conditions atop dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20z Update... No changes were made to the prior outlook. Gusty post-frontal winds are possible across parts of the Dakotas, through the Cascade Gaps and parts of northern CA. However, much of the fuels over these areas should remain poorly receptive to fire spread following recent precipitation. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 09/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of a midlevel low moving northeastward from the northern Plains into Canada, an expansive surface high will develop across much of the West. At the same time, a deep midlevel low and strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread southern CA and the Lower CO River Valley. Overall, this pattern will limit the overlap of strong surface winds and warm/dry boundary-layer conditions atop dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20z Update... No changes were made to the prior outlook. Gusty post-frontal winds are possible across parts of the Dakotas, through the Cascade Gaps and parts of northern CA. However, much of the fuels over these areas should remain poorly receptive to fire spread following recent precipitation. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 09/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of a midlevel low moving northeastward from the northern Plains into Canada, an expansive surface high will develop across much of the West. At the same time, a deep midlevel low and strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread southern CA and the Lower CO River Valley. Overall, this pattern will limit the overlap of strong surface winds and warm/dry boundary-layer conditions atop dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20z Update... No changes were made to the prior outlook. Gusty post-frontal winds are possible across parts of the Dakotas, through the Cascade Gaps and parts of northern CA. However, much of the fuels over these areas should remain poorly receptive to fire spread following recent precipitation. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 09/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of a midlevel low moving northeastward from the northern Plains into Canada, an expansive surface high will develop across much of the West. At the same time, a deep midlevel low and strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread southern CA and the Lower CO River Valley. Overall, this pattern will limit the overlap of strong surface winds and warm/dry boundary-layer conditions atop dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20z Update... No changes were made to the prior outlook. Gusty post-frontal winds are possible across parts of the Dakotas, through the Cascade Gaps and parts of northern CA. However, much of the fuels over these areas should remain poorly receptive to fire spread following recent precipitation. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 09/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of a midlevel low moving northeastward from the northern Plains into Canada, an expansive surface high will develop across much of the West. At the same time, a deep midlevel low and strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread southern CA and the Lower CO River Valley. Overall, this pattern will limit the overlap of strong surface winds and warm/dry boundary-layer conditions atop dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Separate northern-stream and southern-stream mid/upper-level shortwave troughs are forecast to move across parts of the West on Friday, with the northern shortwave reaching the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies by Saturday morning. Meanwhile, a stout midlevel anticyclone (with the warmest 500 mb temperatures near or slightly above 0C) will remain anchored over Texas. A weakening mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. At the surface, a weakening cold front will extend somewhere from the south-central Great Plains into parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes by late afternoon. This front may tend to stall with time, and potentially move northward as warm front across the central Plains later Friday night into Saturday morning. A general lack of overlap between favorable moisture/instability and stronger ascent/deep-layer flow is currently expected to limit organized severe potential on Friday. Isolated diurnal storm development will be possible near the weakening front from the Plains into parts of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Elevated storm development will also be possible Friday night into Saturday morning across parts of the central Plains, within a warm-advection regime. It remains uncertain if elevated buoyancy will become sufficient for any hail potential with the stronger storms within this regime. High-based convection that may be capable of localized strong gusts will be possible across parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies, in association with the southern-stream shortwave trough. ..Dean.. 09/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Separate northern-stream and southern-stream mid/upper-level shortwave troughs are forecast to move across parts of the West on Friday, with the northern shortwave reaching the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies by Saturday morning. Meanwhile, a stout midlevel anticyclone (with the warmest 500 mb temperatures near or slightly above 0C) will remain anchored over Texas. A weakening mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. At the surface, a weakening cold front will extend somewhere from the south-central Great Plains into parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes by late afternoon. This front may tend to stall with time, and potentially move northward as warm front across the central Plains later Friday night into Saturday morning. A general lack of overlap between favorable moisture/instability and stronger ascent/deep-layer flow is currently expected to limit organized severe potential on Friday. Isolated diurnal storm development will be possible near the weakening front from the Plains into parts of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Elevated storm development will also be possible Friday night into Saturday morning across parts of the central Plains, within a warm-advection regime. It remains uncertain if elevated buoyancy will become sufficient for any hail potential with the stronger storms within this regime. High-based convection that may be capable of localized strong gusts will be possible across parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies, in association with the southern-stream shortwave trough. ..Dean.. 09/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Separate northern-stream and southern-stream mid/upper-level shortwave troughs are forecast to move across parts of the West on Friday, with the northern shortwave reaching the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies by Saturday morning. Meanwhile, a stout midlevel anticyclone (with the warmest 500 mb temperatures near or slightly above 0C) will remain anchored over Texas. A weakening mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. At the surface, a weakening cold front will extend somewhere from the south-central Great Plains into parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes by late afternoon. This front may tend to stall with time, and potentially move northward as warm front across the central Plains later Friday night into Saturday morning. A general lack of overlap between favorable moisture/instability and stronger ascent/deep-layer flow is currently expected to limit organized severe potential on Friday. Isolated diurnal storm development will be possible near the weakening front from the Plains into parts of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Elevated storm development will also be possible Friday night into Saturday morning across parts of the central Plains, within a warm-advection regime. It remains uncertain if elevated buoyancy will become sufficient for any hail potential with the stronger storms within this regime. High-based convection that may be capable of localized strong gusts will be possible across parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies, in association with the southern-stream shortwave trough. ..Dean.. 09/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Separate northern-stream and southern-stream mid/upper-level shortwave troughs are forecast to move across parts of the West on Friday, with the northern shortwave reaching the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies by Saturday morning. Meanwhile, a stout midlevel anticyclone (with the warmest 500 mb temperatures near or slightly above 0C) will remain anchored over Texas. A weakening mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. At the surface, a weakening cold front will extend somewhere from the south-central Great Plains into parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes by late afternoon. This front may tend to stall with time, and potentially move northward as warm front across the central Plains later Friday night into Saturday morning. A general lack of overlap between favorable moisture/instability and stronger ascent/deep-layer flow is currently expected to limit organized severe potential on Friday. Isolated diurnal storm development will be possible near the weakening front from the Plains into parts of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Elevated storm development will also be possible Friday night into Saturday morning across parts of the central Plains, within a warm-advection regime. It remains uncertain if elevated buoyancy will become sufficient for any hail potential with the stronger storms within this regime. High-based convection that may be capable of localized strong gusts will be possible across parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies, in association with the southern-stream shortwave trough. ..Dean.. 09/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Separate northern-stream and southern-stream mid/upper-level shortwave troughs are forecast to move across parts of the West on Friday, with the northern shortwave reaching the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies by Saturday morning. Meanwhile, a stout midlevel anticyclone (with the warmest 500 mb temperatures near or slightly above 0C) will remain anchored over Texas. A weakening mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. At the surface, a weakening cold front will extend somewhere from the south-central Great Plains into parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes by late afternoon. This front may tend to stall with time, and potentially move northward as warm front across the central Plains later Friday night into Saturday morning. A general lack of overlap between favorable moisture/instability and stronger ascent/deep-layer flow is currently expected to limit organized severe potential on Friday. Isolated diurnal storm development will be possible near the weakening front from the Plains into parts of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Elevated storm development will also be possible Friday night into Saturday morning across parts of the central Plains, within a warm-advection regime. It remains uncertain if elevated buoyancy will become sufficient for any hail potential with the stronger storms within this regime. High-based convection that may be capable of localized strong gusts will be possible across parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies, in association with the southern-stream shortwave trough. ..Dean.. 09/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Separate northern-stream and southern-stream mid/upper-level shortwave troughs are forecast to move across parts of the West on Friday, with the northern shortwave reaching the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies by Saturday morning. Meanwhile, a stout midlevel anticyclone (with the warmest 500 mb temperatures near or slightly above 0C) will remain anchored over Texas. A weakening mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. At the surface, a weakening cold front will extend somewhere from the south-central Great Plains into parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes by late afternoon. This front may tend to stall with time, and potentially move northward as warm front across the central Plains later Friday night into Saturday morning. A general lack of overlap between favorable moisture/instability and stronger ascent/deep-layer flow is currently expected to limit organized severe potential on Friday. Isolated diurnal storm development will be possible near the weakening front from the Plains into parts of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Elevated storm development will also be possible Friday night into Saturday morning across parts of the central Plains, within a warm-advection regime. It remains uncertain if elevated buoyancy will become sufficient for any hail potential with the stronger storms within this regime. High-based convection that may be capable of localized strong gusts will be possible across parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies, in association with the southern-stream shortwave trough. ..Dean.. 09/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Separate northern-stream and southern-stream mid/upper-level shortwave troughs are forecast to move across parts of the West on Friday, with the northern shortwave reaching the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies by Saturday morning. Meanwhile, a stout midlevel anticyclone (with the warmest 500 mb temperatures near or slightly above 0C) will remain anchored over Texas. A weakening mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. At the surface, a weakening cold front will extend somewhere from the south-central Great Plains into parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes by late afternoon. This front may tend to stall with time, and potentially move northward as warm front across the central Plains later Friday night into Saturday morning. A general lack of overlap between favorable moisture/instability and stronger ascent/deep-layer flow is currently expected to limit organized severe potential on Friday. Isolated diurnal storm development will be possible near the weakening front from the Plains into parts of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Elevated storm development will also be possible Friday night into Saturday morning across parts of the central Plains, within a warm-advection regime. It remains uncertain if elevated buoyancy will become sufficient for any hail potential with the stronger storms within this regime. High-based convection that may be capable of localized strong gusts will be possible across parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies, in association with the southern-stream shortwave trough. ..Dean.. 09/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Separate northern-stream and southern-stream mid/upper-level shortwave troughs are forecast to move across parts of the West on Friday, with the northern shortwave reaching the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies by Saturday morning. Meanwhile, a stout midlevel anticyclone (with the warmest 500 mb temperatures near or slightly above 0C) will remain anchored over Texas. A weakening mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. At the surface, a weakening cold front will extend somewhere from the south-central Great Plains into parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes by late afternoon. This front may tend to stall with time, and potentially move northward as warm front across the central Plains later Friday night into Saturday morning. A general lack of overlap between favorable moisture/instability and stronger ascent/deep-layer flow is currently expected to limit organized severe potential on Friday. Isolated diurnal storm development will be possible near the weakening front from the Plains into parts of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Elevated storm development will also be possible Friday night into Saturday morning across parts of the central Plains, within a warm-advection regime. It remains uncertain if elevated buoyancy will become sufficient for any hail potential with the stronger storms within this regime. High-based convection that may be capable of localized strong gusts will be possible across parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies, in association with the southern-stream shortwave trough. ..Dean.. 09/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Separate northern-stream and southern-stream mid/upper-level shortwave troughs are forecast to move across parts of the West on Friday, with the northern shortwave reaching the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies by Saturday morning. Meanwhile, a stout midlevel anticyclone (with the warmest 500 mb temperatures near or slightly above 0C) will remain anchored over Texas. A weakening mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. At the surface, a weakening cold front will extend somewhere from the south-central Great Plains into parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes by late afternoon. This front may tend to stall with time, and potentially move northward as warm front across the central Plains later Friday night into Saturday morning. A general lack of overlap between favorable moisture/instability and stronger ascent/deep-layer flow is currently expected to limit organized severe potential on Friday. Isolated diurnal storm development will be possible near the weakening front from the Plains into parts of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Elevated storm development will also be possible Friday night into Saturday morning across parts of the central Plains, within a warm-advection regime. It remains uncertain if elevated buoyancy will become sufficient for any hail potential with the stronger storms within this regime. High-based convection that may be capable of localized strong gusts will be possible across parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies, in association with the southern-stream shortwave trough. ..Dean.. 09/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Separate northern-stream and southern-stream mid/upper-level shortwave troughs are forecast to move across parts of the West on Friday, with the northern shortwave reaching the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies by Saturday morning. Meanwhile, a stout midlevel anticyclone (with the warmest 500 mb temperatures near or slightly above 0C) will remain anchored over Texas. A weakening mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. At the surface, a weakening cold front will extend somewhere from the south-central Great Plains into parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes by late afternoon. This front may tend to stall with time, and potentially move northward as warm front across the central Plains later Friday night into Saturday morning. A general lack of overlap between favorable moisture/instability and stronger ascent/deep-layer flow is currently expected to limit organized severe potential on Friday. Isolated diurnal storm development will be possible near the weakening front from the Plains into parts of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Elevated storm development will also be possible Friday night into Saturday morning across parts of the central Plains, within a warm-advection regime. It remains uncertain if elevated buoyancy will become sufficient for any hail potential with the stronger storms within this regime. High-based convection that may be capable of localized strong gusts will be possible across parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies, in association with the southern-stream shortwave trough. ..Dean.. 09/18/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181752
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 18 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from mid-afternoon to mid-evening on Thursday across central/eastern Minnesota, Iowa, and western Wisconsin. A few tornadoes, isolated very large hail, and damaging winds may occur. ...Upper Midwest... A seasonably strong stacked cyclone initially near the ND/SK/MB border region is forecast to move northeastward through the period. An attendant cold front will move eastward through the day across parts of the upper Midwest and central Plains. Diurnal heating of a rather moist airmass along/east of the front will support a relatively narrow zone of moderate to large MLCAPE (1500-3000 J/kg) by peak heating. Moderate midlevel flow will support sufficient effective shear for storm organization, with shear vectors generally aligned perpendicular to the front. This will support supercell potential from central/eastern MN into western WI and parts of IA, though the timing of initial development and western extent of the primary severe threat remain somewhat uncertain. Favorable instability and an initially discrete storm mode will support large to very large hail as storms mature, along with some potential for isolated damaging wind. Low-level hodographs will also be sufficiently curved/enlarged to support a tornado threat. A tendency toward clustering and perhaps some modest upscale growth is possible later in the storm evolution, with a severe threat likely persisting into the early/mid evening. The threat should begin to wane by late evening into Thursday night, as instability weakens with time and eastward extent. ...Eastern KS/northern OK into southeast NE/western MO... A conditionally favorable storm environment is also expected to develop from southeast NE into eastern KS/western MO and northern OK, along/ahead of the approaching front. While storm coverage will generally be less compared to areas farther north (due to weaker large-scale ascent), isolated supercells and/or stronger clusters will be possible from late afternoon into the evening. Increasingly warm midlevel temperatures will tend to limit updraft intensity with southward extent, but an isolated severe threat could extend as far south as northern OK. ..Dean.. 09/18/2024 Read more