Aggregator

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191732
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Central Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form well to the southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico late this weekend. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some slow development of this
system thereafter as it slowly moves generally northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI...AND FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across central/eastern Minnesota, Iowa, and western Wisconsin. A couple of tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds may occur across this region. Farther south, an area of locally severe wind gusts and hail may also develop over parts of eastern Kansas, southwest Missouri, and northeast Oklahoma. ...Minnesota/Wisconsin/Iowa... Widely spaced and mainly elevated thunderstorms ongoing late this morning across parts of IA into eastern MN and western WI should continue to diminish in coverage over the next couple of hours. In their wake, daytime heating of a seasonably moist low-level airmass (surface dewpoints generally in the 60s) and somewhat steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to at least moderate instability by mid afternoon along/ahead of a cold front extending north to south from western MN into eastern NE and western IA. An upper low over northern ND and southeast SK/southwest MB will continue to advance slowly northeastward across south-central Canada through the period. A belt of 35-50 kt mid-level west-southwesterly winds on the southern periphery of the upper low will spread eastward from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest through this evening. A veering/strengthening wind profile with height through mid levels will support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear across the warm sector. This shear will be sufficient for organized thunderstorms, including the potential for a few supercells. Current expectations are that scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid to late afternoon across central/eastern MN into northern/central IA along or just ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. A rather favorable thermodynamic environment will foster robust updrafts, and any initial supercells should pose a threat for large to very large hail (around 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter). But, a fairly quick transition to more linear structures should occur given the presence of the cold front, with a potentially greater damaging wind threat evolving with eastward extent through the evening before convection eventually weakens. South-southwesterly low-level flow and related shear ahead of the front is not forecast to be overly strong by most guidance this afternoon. But, some threat for a couple of tornadoes remains apparent, especially with any sustained supercells across east-central/southern MN into northern IA late this afternoon/early evening. ...Eastern Kansas into Missouri and Northeast Oklahoma... An upper ridge, with rather warm mid-level temperatures, will remain centered over the southern Plains today. The surface cold front is forecast to continue moving east-southeastward across the mid MO Valley and central Plains through late this afternoon. A surface trough extending southward from this front across the southern High Plains should also mix eastward through peak daytime heating. Given weak large-scale ascent and rather warm mid-level temperatures across this area, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding how many additional thunderstorms will develop later today, notwithstanding the ongoing (mainly elevated) convection over eastern KS and far northwest MO. Still, other surface-based thunderstorms may develop later this afternoon along/near the front/dryline intersection in south-central KS/north-central OK, and along the cold front in eastern KS. While low/mid-level flow should remain fairly modest, steepened low-level lapse rates and moderate instability should support a risk for mainly severe/damaging downdrafts as convection spreads east-southeastward into western MO and northeast OK through this evening. ..Gleason/Moore.. 09/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI...AND FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across central/eastern Minnesota, Iowa, and western Wisconsin. A couple of tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds may occur across this region. Farther south, an area of locally severe wind gusts and hail may also develop over parts of eastern Kansas, southwest Missouri, and northeast Oklahoma. ...Minnesota/Wisconsin/Iowa... Widely spaced and mainly elevated thunderstorms ongoing late this morning across parts of IA into eastern MN and western WI should continue to diminish in coverage over the next couple of hours. In their wake, daytime heating of a seasonably moist low-level airmass (surface dewpoints generally in the 60s) and somewhat steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to at least moderate instability by mid afternoon along/ahead of a cold front extending north to south from western MN into eastern NE and western IA. An upper low over northern ND and southeast SK/southwest MB will continue to advance slowly northeastward across south-central Canada through the period. A belt of 35-50 kt mid-level west-southwesterly winds on the southern periphery of the upper low will spread eastward from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest through this evening. A veering/strengthening wind profile with height through mid levels will support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear across the warm sector. This shear will be sufficient for organized thunderstorms, including the potential for a few supercells. Current expectations are that scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid to late afternoon across central/eastern MN into northern/central IA along or just ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. A rather favorable thermodynamic environment will foster robust updrafts, and any initial supercells should pose a threat for large to very large hail (around 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter). But, a fairly quick transition to more linear structures should occur given the presence of the cold front, with a potentially greater damaging wind threat evolving with eastward extent through the evening before convection eventually weakens. South-southwesterly low-level flow and related shear ahead of the front is not forecast to be overly strong by most guidance this afternoon. But, some threat for a couple of tornadoes remains apparent, especially with any sustained supercells across east-central/southern MN into northern IA late this afternoon/early evening. ...Eastern Kansas into Missouri and Northeast Oklahoma... An upper ridge, with rather warm mid-level temperatures, will remain centered over the southern Plains today. The surface cold front is forecast to continue moving east-southeastward across the mid MO Valley and central Plains through late this afternoon. A surface trough extending southward from this front across the southern High Plains should also mix eastward through peak daytime heating. Given weak large-scale ascent and rather warm mid-level temperatures across this area, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding how many additional thunderstorms will develop later today, notwithstanding the ongoing (mainly elevated) convection over eastern KS and far northwest MO. Still, other surface-based thunderstorms may develop later this afternoon along/near the front/dryline intersection in south-central KS/north-central OK, and along the cold front in eastern KS. While low/mid-level flow should remain fairly modest, steepened low-level lapse rates and moderate instability should support a risk for mainly severe/damaging downdrafts as convection spreads east-southeastward into western MO and northeast OK through this evening. ..Gleason/Moore.. 09/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI...AND FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across central/eastern Minnesota, Iowa, and western Wisconsin. A couple of tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds may occur across this region. Farther south, an area of locally severe wind gusts and hail may also develop over parts of eastern Kansas, southwest Missouri, and northeast Oklahoma. ...Minnesota/Wisconsin/Iowa... Widely spaced and mainly elevated thunderstorms ongoing late this morning across parts of IA into eastern MN and western WI should continue to diminish in coverage over the next couple of hours. In their wake, daytime heating of a seasonably moist low-level airmass (surface dewpoints generally in the 60s) and somewhat steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to at least moderate instability by mid afternoon along/ahead of a cold front extending north to south from western MN into eastern NE and western IA. An upper low over northern ND and southeast SK/southwest MB will continue to advance slowly northeastward across south-central Canada through the period. A belt of 35-50 kt mid-level west-southwesterly winds on the southern periphery of the upper low will spread eastward from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest through this evening. A veering/strengthening wind profile with height through mid levels will support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear across the warm sector. This shear will be sufficient for organized thunderstorms, including the potential for a few supercells. Current expectations are that scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid to late afternoon across central/eastern MN into northern/central IA along or just ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. A rather favorable thermodynamic environment will foster robust updrafts, and any initial supercells should pose a threat for large to very large hail (around 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter). But, a fairly quick transition to more linear structures should occur given the presence of the cold front, with a potentially greater damaging wind threat evolving with eastward extent through the evening before convection eventually weakens. South-southwesterly low-level flow and related shear ahead of the front is not forecast to be overly strong by most guidance this afternoon. But, some threat for a couple of tornadoes remains apparent, especially with any sustained supercells across east-central/southern MN into northern IA late this afternoon/early evening. ...Eastern Kansas into Missouri and Northeast Oklahoma... An upper ridge, with rather warm mid-level temperatures, will remain centered over the southern Plains today. The surface cold front is forecast to continue moving east-southeastward across the mid MO Valley and central Plains through late this afternoon. A surface trough extending southward from this front across the southern High Plains should also mix eastward through peak daytime heating. Given weak large-scale ascent and rather warm mid-level temperatures across this area, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding how many additional thunderstorms will develop later today, notwithstanding the ongoing (mainly elevated) convection over eastern KS and far northwest MO. Still, other surface-based thunderstorms may develop later this afternoon along/near the front/dryline intersection in south-central KS/north-central OK, and along the cold front in eastern KS. While low/mid-level flow should remain fairly modest, steepened low-level lapse rates and moderate instability should support a risk for mainly severe/damaging downdrafts as convection spreads east-southeastward into western MO and northeast OK through this evening. ..Gleason/Moore.. 09/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI...AND FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across central/eastern Minnesota, Iowa, and western Wisconsin. A couple of tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds may occur across this region. Farther south, an area of locally severe wind gusts and hail may also develop over parts of eastern Kansas, southwest Missouri, and northeast Oklahoma. ...Minnesota/Wisconsin/Iowa... Widely spaced and mainly elevated thunderstorms ongoing late this morning across parts of IA into eastern MN and western WI should continue to diminish in coverage over the next couple of hours. In their wake, daytime heating of a seasonably moist low-level airmass (surface dewpoints generally in the 60s) and somewhat steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to at least moderate instability by mid afternoon along/ahead of a cold front extending north to south from western MN into eastern NE and western IA. An upper low over northern ND and southeast SK/southwest MB will continue to advance slowly northeastward across south-central Canada through the period. A belt of 35-50 kt mid-level west-southwesterly winds on the southern periphery of the upper low will spread eastward from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest through this evening. A veering/strengthening wind profile with height through mid levels will support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear across the warm sector. This shear will be sufficient for organized thunderstorms, including the potential for a few supercells. Current expectations are that scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid to late afternoon across central/eastern MN into northern/central IA along or just ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. A rather favorable thermodynamic environment will foster robust updrafts, and any initial supercells should pose a threat for large to very large hail (around 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter). But, a fairly quick transition to more linear structures should occur given the presence of the cold front, with a potentially greater damaging wind threat evolving with eastward extent through the evening before convection eventually weakens. South-southwesterly low-level flow and related shear ahead of the front is not forecast to be overly strong by most guidance this afternoon. But, some threat for a couple of tornadoes remains apparent, especially with any sustained supercells across east-central/southern MN into northern IA late this afternoon/early evening. ...Eastern Kansas into Missouri and Northeast Oklahoma... An upper ridge, with rather warm mid-level temperatures, will remain centered over the southern Plains today. The surface cold front is forecast to continue moving east-southeastward across the mid MO Valley and central Plains through late this afternoon. A surface trough extending southward from this front across the southern High Plains should also mix eastward through peak daytime heating. Given weak large-scale ascent and rather warm mid-level temperatures across this area, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding how many additional thunderstorms will develop later today, notwithstanding the ongoing (mainly elevated) convection over eastern KS and far northwest MO. Still, other surface-based thunderstorms may develop later this afternoon along/near the front/dryline intersection in south-central KS/north-central OK, and along the cold front in eastern KS. While low/mid-level flow should remain fairly modest, steepened low-level lapse rates and moderate instability should support a risk for mainly severe/damaging downdrafts as convection spreads east-southeastward into western MO and northeast OK through this evening. ..Gleason/Moore.. 09/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI...AND FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across central/eastern Minnesota, Iowa, and western Wisconsin. A couple of tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds may occur across this region. Farther south, an area of locally severe wind gusts and hail may also develop over parts of eastern Kansas, southwest Missouri, and northeast Oklahoma. ...Minnesota/Wisconsin/Iowa... Widely spaced and mainly elevated thunderstorms ongoing late this morning across parts of IA into eastern MN and western WI should continue to diminish in coverage over the next couple of hours. In their wake, daytime heating of a seasonably moist low-level airmass (surface dewpoints generally in the 60s) and somewhat steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to at least moderate instability by mid afternoon along/ahead of a cold front extending north to south from western MN into eastern NE and western IA. An upper low over northern ND and southeast SK/southwest MB will continue to advance slowly northeastward across south-central Canada through the period. A belt of 35-50 kt mid-level west-southwesterly winds on the southern periphery of the upper low will spread eastward from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest through this evening. A veering/strengthening wind profile with height through mid levels will support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear across the warm sector. This shear will be sufficient for organized thunderstorms, including the potential for a few supercells. Current expectations are that scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid to late afternoon across central/eastern MN into northern/central IA along or just ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. A rather favorable thermodynamic environment will foster robust updrafts, and any initial supercells should pose a threat for large to very large hail (around 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter). But, a fairly quick transition to more linear structures should occur given the presence of the cold front, with a potentially greater damaging wind threat evolving with eastward extent through the evening before convection eventually weakens. South-southwesterly low-level flow and related shear ahead of the front is not forecast to be overly strong by most guidance this afternoon. But, some threat for a couple of tornadoes remains apparent, especially with any sustained supercells across east-central/southern MN into northern IA late this afternoon/early evening. ...Eastern Kansas into Missouri and Northeast Oklahoma... An upper ridge, with rather warm mid-level temperatures, will remain centered over the southern Plains today. The surface cold front is forecast to continue moving east-southeastward across the mid MO Valley and central Plains through late this afternoon. A surface trough extending southward from this front across the southern High Plains should also mix eastward through peak daytime heating. Given weak large-scale ascent and rather warm mid-level temperatures across this area, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding how many additional thunderstorms will develop later today, notwithstanding the ongoing (mainly elevated) convection over eastern KS and far northwest MO. Still, other surface-based thunderstorms may develop later this afternoon along/near the front/dryline intersection in south-central KS/north-central OK, and along the cold front in eastern KS. While low/mid-level flow should remain fairly modest, steepened low-level lapse rates and moderate instability should support a risk for mainly severe/damaging downdrafts as convection spreads east-southeastward into western MO and northeast OK through this evening. ..Gleason/Moore.. 09/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI...AND FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across central/eastern Minnesota, Iowa, and western Wisconsin. A couple of tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds may occur across this region. Farther south, an area of locally severe wind gusts and hail may also develop over parts of eastern Kansas, southwest Missouri, and northeast Oklahoma. ...Minnesota/Wisconsin/Iowa... Widely spaced and mainly elevated thunderstorms ongoing late this morning across parts of IA into eastern MN and western WI should continue to diminish in coverage over the next couple of hours. In their wake, daytime heating of a seasonably moist low-level airmass (surface dewpoints generally in the 60s) and somewhat steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to at least moderate instability by mid afternoon along/ahead of a cold front extending north to south from western MN into eastern NE and western IA. An upper low over northern ND and southeast SK/southwest MB will continue to advance slowly northeastward across south-central Canada through the period. A belt of 35-50 kt mid-level west-southwesterly winds on the southern periphery of the upper low will spread eastward from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest through this evening. A veering/strengthening wind profile with height through mid levels will support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear across the warm sector. This shear will be sufficient for organized thunderstorms, including the potential for a few supercells. Current expectations are that scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid to late afternoon across central/eastern MN into northern/central IA along or just ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. A rather favorable thermodynamic environment will foster robust updrafts, and any initial supercells should pose a threat for large to very large hail (around 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter). But, a fairly quick transition to more linear structures should occur given the presence of the cold front, with a potentially greater damaging wind threat evolving with eastward extent through the evening before convection eventually weakens. South-southwesterly low-level flow and related shear ahead of the front is not forecast to be overly strong by most guidance this afternoon. But, some threat for a couple of tornadoes remains apparent, especially with any sustained supercells across east-central/southern MN into northern IA late this afternoon/early evening. ...Eastern Kansas into Missouri and Northeast Oklahoma... An upper ridge, with rather warm mid-level temperatures, will remain centered over the southern Plains today. The surface cold front is forecast to continue moving east-southeastward across the mid MO Valley and central Plains through late this afternoon. A surface trough extending southward from this front across the southern High Plains should also mix eastward through peak daytime heating. Given weak large-scale ascent and rather warm mid-level temperatures across this area, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding how many additional thunderstorms will develop later today, notwithstanding the ongoing (mainly elevated) convection over eastern KS and far northwest MO. Still, other surface-based thunderstorms may develop later this afternoon along/near the front/dryline intersection in south-central KS/north-central OK, and along the cold front in eastern KS. While low/mid-level flow should remain fairly modest, steepened low-level lapse rates and moderate instability should support a risk for mainly severe/damaging downdrafts as convection spreads east-southeastward into western MO and northeast OK through this evening. ..Gleason/Moore.. 09/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI...AND FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across central/eastern Minnesota, Iowa, and western Wisconsin. A couple of tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds may occur across this region. Farther south, an area of locally severe wind gusts and hail may also develop over parts of eastern Kansas, southwest Missouri, and northeast Oklahoma. ...Minnesota/Wisconsin/Iowa... Widely spaced and mainly elevated thunderstorms ongoing late this morning across parts of IA into eastern MN and western WI should continue to diminish in coverage over the next couple of hours. In their wake, daytime heating of a seasonably moist low-level airmass (surface dewpoints generally in the 60s) and somewhat steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to at least moderate instability by mid afternoon along/ahead of a cold front extending north to south from western MN into eastern NE and western IA. An upper low over northern ND and southeast SK/southwest MB will continue to advance slowly northeastward across south-central Canada through the period. A belt of 35-50 kt mid-level west-southwesterly winds on the southern periphery of the upper low will spread eastward from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest through this evening. A veering/strengthening wind profile with height through mid levels will support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear across the warm sector. This shear will be sufficient for organized thunderstorms, including the potential for a few supercells. Current expectations are that scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid to late afternoon across central/eastern MN into northern/central IA along or just ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. A rather favorable thermodynamic environment will foster robust updrafts, and any initial supercells should pose a threat for large to very large hail (around 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter). But, a fairly quick transition to more linear structures should occur given the presence of the cold front, with a potentially greater damaging wind threat evolving with eastward extent through the evening before convection eventually weakens. South-southwesterly low-level flow and related shear ahead of the front is not forecast to be overly strong by most guidance this afternoon. But, some threat for a couple of tornadoes remains apparent, especially with any sustained supercells across east-central/southern MN into northern IA late this afternoon/early evening. ...Eastern Kansas into Missouri and Northeast Oklahoma... An upper ridge, with rather warm mid-level temperatures, will remain centered over the southern Plains today. The surface cold front is forecast to continue moving east-southeastward across the mid MO Valley and central Plains through late this afternoon. A surface trough extending southward from this front across the southern High Plains should also mix eastward through peak daytime heating. Given weak large-scale ascent and rather warm mid-level temperatures across this area, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding how many additional thunderstorms will develop later today, notwithstanding the ongoing (mainly elevated) convection over eastern KS and far northwest MO. Still, other surface-based thunderstorms may develop later this afternoon along/near the front/dryline intersection in south-central KS/north-central OK, and along the cold front in eastern KS. While low/mid-level flow should remain fairly modest, steepened low-level lapse rates and moderate instability should support a risk for mainly severe/damaging downdrafts as convection spreads east-southeastward into western MO and northeast OK through this evening. ..Gleason/Moore.. 09/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI...AND FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across central/eastern Minnesota, Iowa, and western Wisconsin. A couple of tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds may occur across this region. Farther south, an area of locally severe wind gusts and hail may also develop over parts of eastern Kansas, southwest Missouri, and northeast Oklahoma. ...Minnesota/Wisconsin/Iowa... Widely spaced and mainly elevated thunderstorms ongoing late this morning across parts of IA into eastern MN and western WI should continue to diminish in coverage over the next couple of hours. In their wake, daytime heating of a seasonably moist low-level airmass (surface dewpoints generally in the 60s) and somewhat steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to at least moderate instability by mid afternoon along/ahead of a cold front extending north to south from western MN into eastern NE and western IA. An upper low over northern ND and southeast SK/southwest MB will continue to advance slowly northeastward across south-central Canada through the period. A belt of 35-50 kt mid-level west-southwesterly winds on the southern periphery of the upper low will spread eastward from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest through this evening. A veering/strengthening wind profile with height through mid levels will support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear across the warm sector. This shear will be sufficient for organized thunderstorms, including the potential for a few supercells. Current expectations are that scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid to late afternoon across central/eastern MN into northern/central IA along or just ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. A rather favorable thermodynamic environment will foster robust updrafts, and any initial supercells should pose a threat for large to very large hail (around 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter). But, a fairly quick transition to more linear structures should occur given the presence of the cold front, with a potentially greater damaging wind threat evolving with eastward extent through the evening before convection eventually weakens. South-southwesterly low-level flow and related shear ahead of the front is not forecast to be overly strong by most guidance this afternoon. But, some threat for a couple of tornadoes remains apparent, especially with any sustained supercells across east-central/southern MN into northern IA late this afternoon/early evening. ...Eastern Kansas into Missouri and Northeast Oklahoma... An upper ridge, with rather warm mid-level temperatures, will remain centered over the southern Plains today. The surface cold front is forecast to continue moving east-southeastward across the mid MO Valley and central Plains through late this afternoon. A surface trough extending southward from this front across the southern High Plains should also mix eastward through peak daytime heating. Given weak large-scale ascent and rather warm mid-level temperatures across this area, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding how many additional thunderstorms will develop later today, notwithstanding the ongoing (mainly elevated) convection over eastern KS and far northwest MO. Still, other surface-based thunderstorms may develop later this afternoon along/near the front/dryline intersection in south-central KS/north-central OK, and along the cold front in eastern KS. While low/mid-level flow should remain fairly modest, steepened low-level lapse rates and moderate instability should support a risk for mainly severe/damaging downdrafts as convection spreads east-southeastward into western MO and northeast OK through this evening. ..Gleason/Moore.. 09/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI...AND FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across central/eastern Minnesota, Iowa, and western Wisconsin. A couple of tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds may occur across this region. Farther south, an area of locally severe wind gusts and hail may also develop over parts of eastern Kansas, southwest Missouri, and northeast Oklahoma. ...Minnesota/Wisconsin/Iowa... Widely spaced and mainly elevated thunderstorms ongoing late this morning across parts of IA into eastern MN and western WI should continue to diminish in coverage over the next couple of hours. In their wake, daytime heating of a seasonably moist low-level airmass (surface dewpoints generally in the 60s) and somewhat steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to at least moderate instability by mid afternoon along/ahead of a cold front extending north to south from western MN into eastern NE and western IA. An upper low over northern ND and southeast SK/southwest MB will continue to advance slowly northeastward across south-central Canada through the period. A belt of 35-50 kt mid-level west-southwesterly winds on the southern periphery of the upper low will spread eastward from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest through this evening. A veering/strengthening wind profile with height through mid levels will support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear across the warm sector. This shear will be sufficient for organized thunderstorms, including the potential for a few supercells. Current expectations are that scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid to late afternoon across central/eastern MN into northern/central IA along or just ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. A rather favorable thermodynamic environment will foster robust updrafts, and any initial supercells should pose a threat for large to very large hail (around 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter). But, a fairly quick transition to more linear structures should occur given the presence of the cold front, with a potentially greater damaging wind threat evolving with eastward extent through the evening before convection eventually weakens. South-southwesterly low-level flow and related shear ahead of the front is not forecast to be overly strong by most guidance this afternoon. But, some threat for a couple of tornadoes remains apparent, especially with any sustained supercells across east-central/southern MN into northern IA late this afternoon/early evening. ...Eastern Kansas into Missouri and Northeast Oklahoma... An upper ridge, with rather warm mid-level temperatures, will remain centered over the southern Plains today. The surface cold front is forecast to continue moving east-southeastward across the mid MO Valley and central Plains through late this afternoon. A surface trough extending southward from this front across the southern High Plains should also mix eastward through peak daytime heating. Given weak large-scale ascent and rather warm mid-level temperatures across this area, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding how many additional thunderstorms will develop later today, notwithstanding the ongoing (mainly elevated) convection over eastern KS and far northwest MO. Still, other surface-based thunderstorms may develop later this afternoon along/near the front/dryline intersection in south-central KS/north-central OK, and along the cold front in eastern KS. While low/mid-level flow should remain fairly modest, steepened low-level lapse rates and moderate instability should support a risk for mainly severe/damaging downdrafts as convection spreads east-southeastward into western MO and northeast OK through this evening. ..Gleason/Moore.. 09/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI...AND FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across central/eastern Minnesota, Iowa, and western Wisconsin. A couple of tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds may occur across this region. Farther south, an area of locally severe wind gusts and hail may also develop over parts of eastern Kansas, southwest Missouri, and northeast Oklahoma. ...Minnesota/Wisconsin/Iowa... Widely spaced and mainly elevated thunderstorms ongoing late this morning across parts of IA into eastern MN and western WI should continue to diminish in coverage over the next couple of hours. In their wake, daytime heating of a seasonably moist low-level airmass (surface dewpoints generally in the 60s) and somewhat steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to at least moderate instability by mid afternoon along/ahead of a cold front extending north to south from western MN into eastern NE and western IA. An upper low over northern ND and southeast SK/southwest MB will continue to advance slowly northeastward across south-central Canada through the period. A belt of 35-50 kt mid-level west-southwesterly winds on the southern periphery of the upper low will spread eastward from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest through this evening. A veering/strengthening wind profile with height through mid levels will support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear across the warm sector. This shear will be sufficient for organized thunderstorms, including the potential for a few supercells. Current expectations are that scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid to late afternoon across central/eastern MN into northern/central IA along or just ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. A rather favorable thermodynamic environment will foster robust updrafts, and any initial supercells should pose a threat for large to very large hail (around 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter). But, a fairly quick transition to more linear structures should occur given the presence of the cold front, with a potentially greater damaging wind threat evolving with eastward extent through the evening before convection eventually weakens. South-southwesterly low-level flow and related shear ahead of the front is not forecast to be overly strong by most guidance this afternoon. But, some threat for a couple of tornadoes remains apparent, especially with any sustained supercells across east-central/southern MN into northern IA late this afternoon/early evening. ...Eastern Kansas into Missouri and Northeast Oklahoma... An upper ridge, with rather warm mid-level temperatures, will remain centered over the southern Plains today. The surface cold front is forecast to continue moving east-southeastward across the mid MO Valley and central Plains through late this afternoon. A surface trough extending southward from this front across the southern High Plains should also mix eastward through peak daytime heating. Given weak large-scale ascent and rather warm mid-level temperatures across this area, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding how many additional thunderstorms will develop later today, notwithstanding the ongoing (mainly elevated) convection over eastern KS and far northwest MO. Still, other surface-based thunderstorms may develop later this afternoon along/near the front/dryline intersection in south-central KS/north-central OK, and along the cold front in eastern KS. While low/mid-level flow should remain fairly modest, steepened low-level lapse rates and moderate instability should support a risk for mainly severe/damaging downdrafts as convection spreads east-southeastward into western MO and northeast OK through this evening. ..Gleason/Moore.. 09/19/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1047 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 09/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of a midlevel low tracking northeastward across Manitoba, strong post-frontal winds will overspread the northern Plains. While these winds may overlap pockets of 25-35 percent RH, cool surface temperatures/marginal RH and recent rainfall should limit the fire-weather threat. Elsewhere, an expansive surface high centered over the western CONUS will limit surface winds and the overall fire-weather risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1047 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 09/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of a midlevel low tracking northeastward across Manitoba, strong post-frontal winds will overspread the northern Plains. While these winds may overlap pockets of 25-35 percent RH, cool surface temperatures/marginal RH and recent rainfall should limit the fire-weather threat. Elsewhere, an expansive surface high centered over the western CONUS will limit surface winds and the overall fire-weather risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1047 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 09/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of a midlevel low tracking northeastward across Manitoba, strong post-frontal winds will overspread the northern Plains. While these winds may overlap pockets of 25-35 percent RH, cool surface temperatures/marginal RH and recent rainfall should limit the fire-weather threat. Elsewhere, an expansive surface high centered over the western CONUS will limit surface winds and the overall fire-weather risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1047 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 09/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of a midlevel low tracking northeastward across Manitoba, strong post-frontal winds will overspread the northern Plains. While these winds may overlap pockets of 25-35 percent RH, cool surface temperatures/marginal RH and recent rainfall should limit the fire-weather threat. Elsewhere, an expansive surface high centered over the western CONUS will limit surface winds and the overall fire-weather risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1047 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 09/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of a midlevel low tracking northeastward across Manitoba, strong post-frontal winds will overspread the northern Plains. While these winds may overlap pockets of 25-35 percent RH, cool surface temperatures/marginal RH and recent rainfall should limit the fire-weather threat. Elsewhere, an expansive surface high centered over the western CONUS will limit surface winds and the overall fire-weather risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1047 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 09/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of a midlevel low tracking northeastward across Manitoba, strong post-frontal winds will overspread the northern Plains. While these winds may overlap pockets of 25-35 percent RH, cool surface temperatures/marginal RH and recent rainfall should limit the fire-weather threat. Elsewhere, an expansive surface high centered over the western CONUS will limit surface winds and the overall fire-weather risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1047 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 09/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of a midlevel low tracking northeastward across Manitoba, strong post-frontal winds will overspread the northern Plains. While these winds may overlap pockets of 25-35 percent RH, cool surface temperatures/marginal RH and recent rainfall should limit the fire-weather threat. Elsewhere, an expansive surface high centered over the western CONUS will limit surface winds and the overall fire-weather risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1047 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 09/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of a midlevel low tracking northeastward across Manitoba, strong post-frontal winds will overspread the northern Plains. While these winds may overlap pockets of 25-35 percent RH, cool surface temperatures/marginal RH and recent rainfall should limit the fire-weather threat. Elsewhere, an expansive surface high centered over the western CONUS will limit surface winds and the overall fire-weather risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1047 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 09/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of a midlevel low tracking northeastward across Manitoba, strong post-frontal winds will overspread the northern Plains. While these winds may overlap pockets of 25-35 percent RH, cool surface temperatures/marginal RH and recent rainfall should limit the fire-weather threat. Elsewhere, an expansive surface high centered over the western CONUS will limit surface winds and the overall fire-weather risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more