1 year ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
WESTERN MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and isolated large hail
are possible today across parts of the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota
southward in the mid Missouri Valley. A marginal severe threat will
also be possible in parts of the central and southern Plains.
...Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley/Mid Missouri Valley...
An upper-level low will move northeastward through the northern High
Plains today, as an associated mid-level speed max translates
northeastward through the northern Plains. At the surface, a low
will move through northeastern Montana, with a trough extending
southward across the High Plains. To the east of the trough in the
mid Missouri Valley and northern Plains, surface dewpoints will
generally be in the lower to mid 60s F. As surface temperatures warm
today, moderate instability will develop within a narrow corridor
from eastern Nebraska northward into the eastern Dakotas. Isolated
to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form to the east of the
surface trough near the instability axis during the afternoon. These
storms will move northeastward across the eastern portion of the
central and northern Plains during the late afternoon and evening.
RAP forecast soundings at 00Z/Thu near the instability axis at Sioux
Falls, South Dakota have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range.
Some speed shear is evident in lowest 3 km, and low-level lapse
rates are forecast to be steep, peaking in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range.
This environment should support supercell development during the
late afternoon and early evening. Supercells will likely be capable
of producing severe wind gusts and isolated large hail.
Further south into the southern and central Plains, low-levels are
forecast to be drier near the surface trough, with dewpoints
expected to be mostly in the upper 50s and lower 60s F. For this
reason, instability is expected to remain relative weak today. This,
combined with limited large-scale ascent will likely keep any severe
threat isolated and marginal.
..Broyles/Weinman.. 09/18/2024
Read more1 year ago
The number of Indiana counties with burn bans rose to 46, up from 26 the previous day.
WWBL-FM (Washington, Ind.), Sept 18, 2024
Twenty-six of Indiana’s 92 counties have burn bans due to the drought status and fire danger. Many of the counties with the bans were in the southern part of the state.
WWBL-FM (Washington, Ind.), Sept 17, 2024
There is a burn ban in Dubois County, Indiana including open burning except for campfires that are continuously attended. Campfires must be smaller than 48" in diameter and enclosed by a noncombustible barrier.
Dubois County Herald (Vincennes, IN), Sept. 4, 2024.
1 year ago
Conditions in South Texas remained favorable due to recent rains, leading to an improvement in overall rangeland and pasture conditions. Most of the district reported rainfall of 0.5–3 inches, while other areas reported no rain. Pastures and rangeland continued to improve in areas that received rain and decline in drier areas. Livestock were in good condition, but some producers with overgrazed pastures were supplementing with hay, cubes and tubs, as well as molasses, protein and mineral. Cattle prices declined due to heavier harvest weights and a large supply. Feed prices remained high at local feed stores. Local ranchers began planning for fall sales of their weaned calves as they prepared for deer season. Irrigated forage was making good quality hay, and producers were optimistic about a possible second or third cutting if they received rain. Hay producers were baling hay, with some applying fertilizer after the previous week’s rain. Pastures looked good with adequate rainfall. Most row crop farmers were busy doing fieldwork. Cotton defoliation started, and early planted cotton was harvested. Peanut crops continued to mature under irrigation and digging was expected to begin in the coming weeks. Bermuda grass hay fields were cut and baled. Sesame harvest started but most fields were still too wet. A few vegetable producers planted cool-season crops, and citrus trees were sprayed. With the cooler temperatures, wildlife became more active and remained in good quantity and decent quality, with strong populations of whitetail deer, quail, and other game for the upcoming hunting seasons.
AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Sept 17, 2024
Scattered showers and thunderstorms were reported along with cooler or average temperatures. A large part of the district received between 0.5-4.5 inches of rain. Live Oak County received rainfall totals ranging from 0.3-4 inches, however McMullen, Duval and Hidalgo counties did not receive significant rainfall. Prior to the rain, conditions were extremely hot, with temperatures exceeding 105 degrees, and varying degrees of dryness and humidity. The rainfall improved conditions for pastures and crops. Sesame harvest was about 85% complete with above-average yields reported, while cotton harvest was approximately 90% complete. Cotton stalk destruction was underway, with the stalk destruction deadline of Sept. 15. Most cotton acres in other counties were harvested, with varying yields and quality; any remaining cotton likely dropped in quality and some was expected to be shredded. Citrus and vegetables continued to be irrigated. Peanut producers reduced irrigation as harvest neared. Producers were preparing fields for fall and winter crops. Fall corn was thriving with the recent rains. Forage production was up, and hay fields looked good. Hay producers were baling across the counties, and a surplus of hay was noted. Livestock were in good condition, though some producers remained concerned about stock tank levels and continued to supplement feed with hay and cubes. Cattle prices remained steady to lower while sale volumes were steady to higher at most markets. Livestock and wildlife conditions improved due to the rainfall and cooler temperatures. Ranchers and deer producers were supplementing livestock and wildlife, and dove populations were abundant in many areas.
AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Sept 5, 2024
1 year ago
Livestock producers in eastern Ohio were struggling to care for their animals amid the drought. Hay was in short supply, and water sources were running dry. Many farmers began hauling water in mid-July.
WTOV 9 FOX (Steubenville, Ohio), Sept 17, 2024
1 year ago
MD 2081 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MONTANA...WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2081
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0625 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024
Areas affected...Portions of eastern Montana...western North
Dakota...and northwestern South Dakota
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 172325Z - 180200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...The risk of severe wind gusts and large hail should
gradually increase over the next few hours. The area is being
monitored for a possible watch, though timing is still uncertain.
DISCUSSION...A few strong to severe storms have developed along a
north/south-oriented confluence zone across eastern MT. These storms
are evolving in an environment characterized by around 40 kt of
deep-layer shear (per regional VWP) and moderate surface-based
instability -- supportive of organized clusters and supercell
structures. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts could
accompany this activity.
During the next few hours, large-scale ascent preceding an
approaching midlevel trough may encourage an uptick in convection
from northeastern MT into western ND and northwestern SD. Sufficient
deep-layer shear/mostly straight hodographs and steep deep-layer
lapse rates should favor organized clusters and supercells capable
of severe wind gusts and large hail. The overall timing and coverage
of the severe threat still remains somewhat uncertain, and
convective trends are being monitored for a possible watch for parts
of the area.
..Weinman/Hart.. 09/17/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...TFX...
LAT...LON 44600402 46000472 46820548 47140652 47420795 47610861
48260896 48790884 49020819 49010575 48900484 48720435
48260376 46750285 45540234 44960227 44600266 44430348
44600402
Read more1 year ago
MD 2082 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 674...675... FOR CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 2082
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0641 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024
Areas affected...Central High Plains
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 674...675...
Valid 172341Z - 180145Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 674, 675
continues.
SUMMARY...Strong winds are the primary risk along the leading edge
of a squall line as it propagates across the central High Plains.
DISCUSSION...Early-evening water-vapor imagery suggests mid-level
short-wave trough is located over southeast CO, ejecting northeast
into the central High Plains. Organized convection has evolved ahead
of this feature, primarily expressed as a squall line which extends
from southwest Yuma County CO-Baca County CO. Strong winds are
likely associated with this squall line, and this is the primary
risk as the squall line advances into western KS/southwest NE over
the next 1-2 hours.
..Darrow.. 09/17/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
LAT...LON 37460250 39190230 40240282 40790133 39720082 37380154
37460250
Read more1 year ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024
Valid 180100Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing scattered to numerous severe wind
gusts and hail will continue to develop across the High Plains this
evening. Some of the wind gusts may be significant (75+ mph).
...Southern and Central High Plains...
A mid-level low is evident on water vapor imagery over the northern
Rockies, with cyclonic southwesterly flow located from the Four
Corners into the central and northern Plains. Ahead of the trough, a
band of strong large-scale ascent appears to be spreading into the
central High Plains, where a large plume of mid-level moisture is
located. Thunderstorms are ongoing ahead of this band of ascent, and
are moving into a moderately unstable airmass where MLCAPE is
estimated to be in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. Concerning the shear
environment, regional WSR-88D VWPs in east-central Colorado have 0-6
km shear from 40 to 50 knots, with some directional shear in the
lowest 3 km. In addition, the RAP has a strengthening low-level jet
analyzed from far eastern Colorado and western Kansas northward into
southeastern South Dakota. As the low-level jet continues to
strengthen, the lift, shear and instability will continue to support
severe thunderstorm development over the southern and central High
Plains this evening. In response, an organized line segment will
continue to move eastward across western Nebraska, western Kansas
and the Texas Panhandle, where scattered severe wind gusts are
expected. Wind gusts above 70 knots will be possible along the more
organized parts of the line. The threat should persist into the mid
to late evening.
...Northern High Plains...
Water vapor imagery shows an upper-level low over eastern Idaho,
with divergent mid-level from the south and south-southeast across
much of the northern High Plains. An axis moderate instability is
analyzed from central North Dakota into northeastern Montana, where
MLCAPE is estimated in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Thunderstorms
are ongoing near the instability axis in northeastern Montana.
Additional storms have developed further south near the South
Dakota-Wyoming state line. The latest WSR-88D VWP at Glasgow,
Montana has easterly flow at the surface, with a sharply veering
wind profile in the low-levels. 0-6 km shear is estimated to be near
40 knots. This environment, along with steep low to mid-level lapse
rates should continue to support a severe threat for several more
hours. A potential for severe wind gusts and isolated large hail
will exist with the stronger storms.
..Broyles.. 09/18/2024
Read more1 year ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024
Valid 180100Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing scattered to numerous severe wind
gusts and hail will continue to develop across the High Plains this
evening. Some of the wind gusts may be significant (75+ mph).
...Southern and Central High Plains...
A mid-level low is evident on water vapor imagery over the northern
Rockies, with cyclonic southwesterly flow located from the Four
Corners into the central and northern Plains. Ahead of the trough, a
band of strong large-scale ascent appears to be spreading into the
central High Plains, where a large plume of mid-level moisture is
located. Thunderstorms are ongoing ahead of this band of ascent, and
are moving into a moderately unstable airmass where MLCAPE is
estimated to be in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. Concerning the shear
environment, regional WSR-88D VWPs in east-central Colorado have 0-6
km shear from 40 to 50 knots, with some directional shear in the
lowest 3 km. In addition, the RAP has a strengthening low-level jet
analyzed from far eastern Colorado and western Kansas northward into
southeastern South Dakota. As the low-level jet continues to
strengthen, the lift, shear and instability will continue to support
severe thunderstorm development over the southern and central High
Plains this evening. In response, an organized line segment will
continue to move eastward across western Nebraska, western Kansas
and the Texas Panhandle, where scattered severe wind gusts are
expected. Wind gusts above 70 knots will be possible along the more
organized parts of the line. The threat should persist into the mid
to late evening.
...Northern High Plains...
Water vapor imagery shows an upper-level low over eastern Idaho,
with divergent mid-level from the south and south-southeast across
much of the northern High Plains. An axis moderate instability is
analyzed from central North Dakota into northeastern Montana, where
MLCAPE is estimated in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Thunderstorms
are ongoing near the instability axis in northeastern Montana.
Additional storms have developed further south near the South
Dakota-Wyoming state line. The latest WSR-88D VWP at Glasgow,
Montana has easterly flow at the surface, with a sharply veering
wind profile in the low-levels. 0-6 km shear is estimated to be near
40 knots. This environment, along with steep low to mid-level lapse
rates should continue to support a severe threat for several more
hours. A potential for severe wind gusts and isolated large hail
will exist with the stronger storms.
..Broyles.. 09/18/2024
Read more1 year ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024
Valid 180100Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing scattered to numerous severe wind
gusts and hail will continue to develop across the High Plains this
evening. Some of the wind gusts may be significant (75+ mph).
...Southern and Central High Plains...
A mid-level low is evident on water vapor imagery over the northern
Rockies, with cyclonic southwesterly flow located from the Four
Corners into the central and northern Plains. Ahead of the trough, a
band of strong large-scale ascent appears to be spreading into the
central High Plains, where a large plume of mid-level moisture is
located. Thunderstorms are ongoing ahead of this band of ascent, and
are moving into a moderately unstable airmass where MLCAPE is
estimated to be in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. Concerning the shear
environment, regional WSR-88D VWPs in east-central Colorado have 0-6
km shear from 40 to 50 knots, with some directional shear in the
lowest 3 km. In addition, the RAP has a strengthening low-level jet
analyzed from far eastern Colorado and western Kansas northward into
southeastern South Dakota. As the low-level jet continues to
strengthen, the lift, shear and instability will continue to support
severe thunderstorm development over the southern and central High
Plains this evening. In response, an organized line segment will
continue to move eastward across western Nebraska, western Kansas
and the Texas Panhandle, where scattered severe wind gusts are
expected. Wind gusts above 70 knots will be possible along the more
organized parts of the line. The threat should persist into the mid
to late evening.
...Northern High Plains...
Water vapor imagery shows an upper-level low over eastern Idaho,
with divergent mid-level from the south and south-southeast across
much of the northern High Plains. An axis moderate instability is
analyzed from central North Dakota into northeastern Montana, where
MLCAPE is estimated in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Thunderstorms
are ongoing near the instability axis in northeastern Montana.
Additional storms have developed further south near the South
Dakota-Wyoming state line. The latest WSR-88D VWP at Glasgow,
Montana has easterly flow at the surface, with a sharply veering
wind profile in the low-levels. 0-6 km shear is estimated to be near
40 knots. This environment, along with steep low to mid-level lapse
rates should continue to support a severe threat for several more
hours. A potential for severe wind gusts and isolated large hail
will exist with the stronger storms.
..Broyles.. 09/18/2024
Read more1 year ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024
Valid 180100Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing scattered to numerous severe wind
gusts and hail will continue to develop across the High Plains this
evening. Some of the wind gusts may be significant (75+ mph).
...Southern and Central High Plains...
A mid-level low is evident on water vapor imagery over the northern
Rockies, with cyclonic southwesterly flow located from the Four
Corners into the central and northern Plains. Ahead of the trough, a
band of strong large-scale ascent appears to be spreading into the
central High Plains, where a large plume of mid-level moisture is
located. Thunderstorms are ongoing ahead of this band of ascent, and
are moving into a moderately unstable airmass where MLCAPE is
estimated to be in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. Concerning the shear
environment, regional WSR-88D VWPs in east-central Colorado have 0-6
km shear from 40 to 50 knots, with some directional shear in the
lowest 3 km. In addition, the RAP has a strengthening low-level jet
analyzed from far eastern Colorado and western Kansas northward into
southeastern South Dakota. As the low-level jet continues to
strengthen, the lift, shear and instability will continue to support
severe thunderstorm development over the southern and central High
Plains this evening. In response, an organized line segment will
continue to move eastward across western Nebraska, western Kansas
and the Texas Panhandle, where scattered severe wind gusts are
expected. Wind gusts above 70 knots will be possible along the more
organized parts of the line. The threat should persist into the mid
to late evening.
...Northern High Plains...
Water vapor imagery shows an upper-level low over eastern Idaho,
with divergent mid-level from the south and south-southeast across
much of the northern High Plains. An axis moderate instability is
analyzed from central North Dakota into northeastern Montana, where
MLCAPE is estimated in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Thunderstorms
are ongoing near the instability axis in northeastern Montana.
Additional storms have developed further south near the South
Dakota-Wyoming state line. The latest WSR-88D VWP at Glasgow,
Montana has easterly flow at the surface, with a sharply veering
wind profile in the low-levels. 0-6 km shear is estimated to be near
40 knots. This environment, along with steep low to mid-level lapse
rates should continue to support a severe threat for several more
hours. A potential for severe wind gusts and isolated large hail
will exist with the stronger storms.
..Broyles.. 09/18/2024
Read more1 year ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024
Valid 180100Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing scattered to numerous severe wind
gusts and hail will continue to develop across the High Plains this
evening. Some of the wind gusts may be significant (75+ mph).
...Southern and Central High Plains...
A mid-level low is evident on water vapor imagery over the northern
Rockies, with cyclonic southwesterly flow located from the Four
Corners into the central and northern Plains. Ahead of the trough, a
band of strong large-scale ascent appears to be spreading into the
central High Plains, where a large plume of mid-level moisture is
located. Thunderstorms are ongoing ahead of this band of ascent, and
are moving into a moderately unstable airmass where MLCAPE is
estimated to be in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. Concerning the shear
environment, regional WSR-88D VWPs in east-central Colorado have 0-6
km shear from 40 to 50 knots, with some directional shear in the
lowest 3 km. In addition, the RAP has a strengthening low-level jet
analyzed from far eastern Colorado and western Kansas northward into
southeastern South Dakota. As the low-level jet continues to
strengthen, the lift, shear and instability will continue to support
severe thunderstorm development over the southern and central High
Plains this evening. In response, an organized line segment will
continue to move eastward across western Nebraska, western Kansas
and the Texas Panhandle, where scattered severe wind gusts are
expected. Wind gusts above 70 knots will be possible along the more
organized parts of the line. The threat should persist into the mid
to late evening.
...Northern High Plains...
Water vapor imagery shows an upper-level low over eastern Idaho,
with divergent mid-level from the south and south-southeast across
much of the northern High Plains. An axis moderate instability is
analyzed from central North Dakota into northeastern Montana, where
MLCAPE is estimated in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Thunderstorms
are ongoing near the instability axis in northeastern Montana.
Additional storms have developed further south near the South
Dakota-Wyoming state line. The latest WSR-88D VWP at Glasgow,
Montana has easterly flow at the surface, with a sharply veering
wind profile in the low-levels. 0-6 km shear is estimated to be near
40 knots. This environment, along with steep low to mid-level lapse
rates should continue to support a severe threat for several more
hours. A potential for severe wind gusts and isolated large hail
will exist with the stronger storms.
..Broyles.. 09/18/2024
Read more1 year ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024
Valid 180100Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing scattered to numerous severe wind
gusts and hail will continue to develop across the High Plains this
evening. Some of the wind gusts may be significant (75+ mph).
...Southern and Central High Plains...
A mid-level low is evident on water vapor imagery over the northern
Rockies, with cyclonic southwesterly flow located from the Four
Corners into the central and northern Plains. Ahead of the trough, a
band of strong large-scale ascent appears to be spreading into the
central High Plains, where a large plume of mid-level moisture is
located. Thunderstorms are ongoing ahead of this band of ascent, and
are moving into a moderately unstable airmass where MLCAPE is
estimated to be in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. Concerning the shear
environment, regional WSR-88D VWPs in east-central Colorado have 0-6
km shear from 40 to 50 knots, with some directional shear in the
lowest 3 km. In addition, the RAP has a strengthening low-level jet
analyzed from far eastern Colorado and western Kansas northward into
southeastern South Dakota. As the low-level jet continues to
strengthen, the lift, shear and instability will continue to support
severe thunderstorm development over the southern and central High
Plains this evening. In response, an organized line segment will
continue to move eastward across western Nebraska, western Kansas
and the Texas Panhandle, where scattered severe wind gusts are
expected. Wind gusts above 70 knots will be possible along the more
organized parts of the line. The threat should persist into the mid
to late evening.
...Northern High Plains...
Water vapor imagery shows an upper-level low over eastern Idaho,
with divergent mid-level from the south and south-southeast across
much of the northern High Plains. An axis moderate instability is
analyzed from central North Dakota into northeastern Montana, where
MLCAPE is estimated in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Thunderstorms
are ongoing near the instability axis in northeastern Montana.
Additional storms have developed further south near the South
Dakota-Wyoming state line. The latest WSR-88D VWP at Glasgow,
Montana has easterly flow at the surface, with a sharply veering
wind profile in the low-levels. 0-6 km shear is estimated to be near
40 knots. This environment, along with steep low to mid-level lapse
rates should continue to support a severe threat for several more
hours. A potential for severe wind gusts and isolated large hail
will exist with the stronger storms.
..Broyles.. 09/18/2024
Read more
