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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms could occur across parts of the central Gulf Coast into central Mississippi and Alabama. ...Synopsis... A progressive pattern with multiple embedded mid-level shortwave troughs will traverse the Southern Plains and Southeast on Friday. The first of these shortwave troughs, associated with the DY1 severe weather risk, will be located in the Mid-Mississippi Valley on Friday morning. A secondary mid-level trough will cross the Mid-Mississippi/Lower-Mississippi valley between 18Z and 00Z on Friday. Finally, another mid-level trough will start to sharpen across central/northern Texas toward the end of the period. ...Central Gulf Coast into central MS/AL... A broken line of thunderstorms, perhaps with some marginal wind damage threat, will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across central MS. The mid-level shortwave trough associated with this convection will move quickly north and deamplify during the morning which will likely result in weakening convection by mid-day. A reservoir of instability will remain across the central Gulf Coast with perhaps some northward advection into central MS/AL during the early afternoon as the next mid-level trough approaches the region. The primary forcing/height falls associated with this trough will remain mostly north of the warm sector, but a glancing blow could result in isolated thunderstorms. Lapse rates will remain weak, but sufficient effective shear (35-40 knots) could result in a few stronger/more organized storms capable of large hail or some damaging wind gusts. Removed the marginal risk across central Louisiana for the threat of elevated thunderstorms with the northward advancing warm front late in the period. It appears the primary forcing associated with the mid-level trough and strengthening low-level jet will be after 12Z Saturday. ..Bentley.. 12/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms could occur across parts of the central Gulf Coast into central Mississippi and Alabama. ...Synopsis... A progressive pattern with multiple embedded mid-level shortwave troughs will traverse the Southern Plains and Southeast on Friday. The first of these shortwave troughs, associated with the DY1 severe weather risk, will be located in the Mid-Mississippi Valley on Friday morning. A secondary mid-level trough will cross the Mid-Mississippi/Lower-Mississippi valley between 18Z and 00Z on Friday. Finally, another mid-level trough will start to sharpen across central/northern Texas toward the end of the period. ...Central Gulf Coast into central MS/AL... A broken line of thunderstorms, perhaps with some marginal wind damage threat, will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across central MS. The mid-level shortwave trough associated with this convection will move quickly north and deamplify during the morning which will likely result in weakening convection by mid-day. A reservoir of instability will remain across the central Gulf Coast with perhaps some northward advection into central MS/AL during the early afternoon as the next mid-level trough approaches the region. The primary forcing/height falls associated with this trough will remain mostly north of the warm sector, but a glancing blow could result in isolated thunderstorms. Lapse rates will remain weak, but sufficient effective shear (35-40 knots) could result in a few stronger/more organized storms capable of large hail or some damaging wind gusts. Removed the marginal risk across central Louisiana for the threat of elevated thunderstorms with the northward advancing warm front late in the period. It appears the primary forcing associated with the mid-level trough and strengthening low-level jet will be after 12Z Saturday. ..Bentley.. 12/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms could occur across parts of the central Gulf Coast into central Mississippi and Alabama. ...Synopsis... A progressive pattern with multiple embedded mid-level shortwave troughs will traverse the Southern Plains and Southeast on Friday. The first of these shortwave troughs, associated with the DY1 severe weather risk, will be located in the Mid-Mississippi Valley on Friday morning. A secondary mid-level trough will cross the Mid-Mississippi/Lower-Mississippi valley between 18Z and 00Z on Friday. Finally, another mid-level trough will start to sharpen across central/northern Texas toward the end of the period. ...Central Gulf Coast into central MS/AL... A broken line of thunderstorms, perhaps with some marginal wind damage threat, will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across central MS. The mid-level shortwave trough associated with this convection will move quickly north and deamplify during the morning which will likely result in weakening convection by mid-day. A reservoir of instability will remain across the central Gulf Coast with perhaps some northward advection into central MS/AL during the early afternoon as the next mid-level trough approaches the region. The primary forcing/height falls associated with this trough will remain mostly north of the warm sector, but a glancing blow could result in isolated thunderstorms. Lapse rates will remain weak, but sufficient effective shear (35-40 knots) could result in a few stronger/more organized storms capable of large hail or some damaging wind gusts. Removed the marginal risk across central Louisiana for the threat of elevated thunderstorms with the northward advancing warm front late in the period. It appears the primary forcing associated with the mid-level trough and strengthening low-level jet will be after 12Z Saturday. ..Bentley.. 12/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms could occur across parts of the central Gulf Coast into central Mississippi and Alabama. ...Synopsis... A progressive pattern with multiple embedded mid-level shortwave troughs will traverse the Southern Plains and Southeast on Friday. The first of these shortwave troughs, associated with the DY1 severe weather risk, will be located in the Mid-Mississippi Valley on Friday morning. A secondary mid-level trough will cross the Mid-Mississippi/Lower-Mississippi valley between 18Z and 00Z on Friday. Finally, another mid-level trough will start to sharpen across central/northern Texas toward the end of the period. ...Central Gulf Coast into central MS/AL... A broken line of thunderstorms, perhaps with some marginal wind damage threat, will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across central MS. The mid-level shortwave trough associated with this convection will move quickly north and deamplify during the morning which will likely result in weakening convection by mid-day. A reservoir of instability will remain across the central Gulf Coast with perhaps some northward advection into central MS/AL during the early afternoon as the next mid-level trough approaches the region. The primary forcing/height falls associated with this trough will remain mostly north of the warm sector, but a glancing blow could result in isolated thunderstorms. Lapse rates will remain weak, but sufficient effective shear (35-40 knots) could result in a few stronger/more organized storms capable of large hail or some damaging wind gusts. Removed the marginal risk across central Louisiana for the threat of elevated thunderstorms with the northward advancing warm front late in the period. It appears the primary forcing associated with the mid-level trough and strengthening low-level jet will be after 12Z Saturday. ..Bentley.. 12/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms could occur across parts of the central Gulf Coast into central Mississippi and Alabama. ...Synopsis... A progressive pattern with multiple embedded mid-level shortwave troughs will traverse the Southern Plains and Southeast on Friday. The first of these shortwave troughs, associated with the DY1 severe weather risk, will be located in the Mid-Mississippi Valley on Friday morning. A secondary mid-level trough will cross the Mid-Mississippi/Lower-Mississippi valley between 18Z and 00Z on Friday. Finally, another mid-level trough will start to sharpen across central/northern Texas toward the end of the period. ...Central Gulf Coast into central MS/AL... A broken line of thunderstorms, perhaps with some marginal wind damage threat, will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across central MS. The mid-level shortwave trough associated with this convection will move quickly north and deamplify during the morning which will likely result in weakening convection by mid-day. A reservoir of instability will remain across the central Gulf Coast with perhaps some northward advection into central MS/AL during the early afternoon as the next mid-level trough approaches the region. The primary forcing/height falls associated with this trough will remain mostly north of the warm sector, but a glancing blow could result in isolated thunderstorms. Lapse rates will remain weak, but sufficient effective shear (35-40 knots) could result in a few stronger/more organized storms capable of large hail or some damaging wind gusts. Removed the marginal risk across central Louisiana for the threat of elevated thunderstorms with the northward advancing warm front late in the period. It appears the primary forcing associated with the mid-level trough and strengthening low-level jet will be after 12Z Saturday. ..Bentley.. 12/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms could occur across parts of the central Gulf Coast into central Mississippi and Alabama. ...Synopsis... A progressive pattern with multiple embedded mid-level shortwave troughs will traverse the Southern Plains and Southeast on Friday. The first of these shortwave troughs, associated with the DY1 severe weather risk, will be located in the Mid-Mississippi Valley on Friday morning. A secondary mid-level trough will cross the Mid-Mississippi/Lower-Mississippi valley between 18Z and 00Z on Friday. Finally, another mid-level trough will start to sharpen across central/northern Texas toward the end of the period. ...Central Gulf Coast into central MS/AL... A broken line of thunderstorms, perhaps with some marginal wind damage threat, will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across central MS. The mid-level shortwave trough associated with this convection will move quickly north and deamplify during the morning which will likely result in weakening convection by mid-day. A reservoir of instability will remain across the central Gulf Coast with perhaps some northward advection into central MS/AL during the early afternoon as the next mid-level trough approaches the region. The primary forcing/height falls associated with this trough will remain mostly north of the warm sector, but a glancing blow could result in isolated thunderstorms. Lapse rates will remain weak, but sufficient effective shear (35-40 knots) could result in a few stronger/more organized storms capable of large hail or some damaging wind gusts. Removed the marginal risk across central Louisiana for the threat of elevated thunderstorms with the northward advancing warm front late in the period. It appears the primary forcing associated with the mid-level trough and strengthening low-level jet will be after 12Z Saturday. ..Bentley.. 12/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms could occur across parts of the central Gulf Coast into central Mississippi and Alabama. ...Synopsis... A progressive pattern with multiple embedded mid-level shortwave troughs will traverse the Southern Plains and Southeast on Friday. The first of these shortwave troughs, associated with the DY1 severe weather risk, will be located in the Mid-Mississippi Valley on Friday morning. A secondary mid-level trough will cross the Mid-Mississippi/Lower-Mississippi valley between 18Z and 00Z on Friday. Finally, another mid-level trough will start to sharpen across central/northern Texas toward the end of the period. ...Central Gulf Coast into central MS/AL... A broken line of thunderstorms, perhaps with some marginal wind damage threat, will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across central MS. The mid-level shortwave trough associated with this convection will move quickly north and deamplify during the morning which will likely result in weakening convection by mid-day. A reservoir of instability will remain across the central Gulf Coast with perhaps some northward advection into central MS/AL during the early afternoon as the next mid-level trough approaches the region. The primary forcing/height falls associated with this trough will remain mostly north of the warm sector, but a glancing blow could result in isolated thunderstorms. Lapse rates will remain weak, but sufficient effective shear (35-40 knots) could result in a few stronger/more organized storms capable of large hail or some damaging wind gusts. Removed the marginal risk across central Louisiana for the threat of elevated thunderstorms with the northward advancing warm front late in the period. It appears the primary forcing associated with the mid-level trough and strengthening low-level jet will be after 12Z Saturday. ..Bentley.. 12/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms could occur across parts of the central Gulf Coast into central Mississippi and Alabama. ...Synopsis... A progressive pattern with multiple embedded mid-level shortwave troughs will traverse the Southern Plains and Southeast on Friday. The first of these shortwave troughs, associated with the DY1 severe weather risk, will be located in the Mid-Mississippi Valley on Friday morning. A secondary mid-level trough will cross the Mid-Mississippi/Lower-Mississippi valley between 18Z and 00Z on Friday. Finally, another mid-level trough will start to sharpen across central/northern Texas toward the end of the period. ...Central Gulf Coast into central MS/AL... A broken line of thunderstorms, perhaps with some marginal wind damage threat, will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across central MS. The mid-level shortwave trough associated with this convection will move quickly north and deamplify during the morning which will likely result in weakening convection by mid-day. A reservoir of instability will remain across the central Gulf Coast with perhaps some northward advection into central MS/AL during the early afternoon as the next mid-level trough approaches the region. The primary forcing/height falls associated with this trough will remain mostly north of the warm sector, but a glancing blow could result in isolated thunderstorms. Lapse rates will remain weak, but sufficient effective shear (35-40 knots) could result in a few stronger/more organized storms capable of large hail or some damaging wind gusts. Removed the marginal risk across central Louisiana for the threat of elevated thunderstorms with the northward advancing warm front late in the period. It appears the primary forcing associated with the mid-level trough and strengthening low-level jet will be after 12Z Saturday. ..Bentley.. 12/26/2024 Read more

WW 0714 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0714 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Dec 26 16:26:02 UTC 2024.

MD 2281 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2281 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0918 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Areas affected...north Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 261518Z - 261715Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may pose a risk for marginally severe hail (0.5 to 1.25 inch diameter) in the near-term (next couple of hours). A severe thunderstorm watch is not currently expected, but may become possible toward early afternoon for portions of the MCD area. DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms are occurring this morning in a low-level warm advection regime ahead of an approaching upper shortwave trough. The morning FWD RAOB indicated steep midlevel lapse rates but strong inhibition through may layers in the thermodynamic profile. However, latest SPC Mesoanalysis data and RAP forecast soundings indicate midlevel inhibition is likely decreasing with time as midlevel temperatures continue to cool and large-scale ascent increases with the approaching of the upper trough. Some brief increase in convective cores has also been noted in 7km CAPPI, along with small increases in MRMS MESH. Favorable vertical shear, with elongated/straight hodographs above 2 km will support some continued organization of elevated storms into midday. This activity may briefly be capable of producing marginally severe hail (0.5 to 1.25 inch diameter) the next couple of hours. While this initial convection may not require a watch in the short term. Severe potential may increase by early afternoon across parts of the MCD area and watch issuance may be needed later (and will be discussed in forthcoming MCDs). ..Leitman/Thompson.. 12/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX... LAT...LON 31899854 32649828 33039770 33419710 33539659 33559605 33429578 33119571 32639568 32139580 31749611 31349671 30999756 31029803 31159835 31719857 31899854 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST TX... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes, including a strong (potentially EF2+) tornado or two, will be possible this afternoon/evening across southeast Texas. Damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.75" in diameter will also be possible from east Texas this afternoon into Louisiana, southern Arkansas and far west central Mississippi overnight. ...East TX/LA/southern AR through tonight... Elevated convection has already formed over north central TX this morning in a band of ascent preceding a midlevel shortwave trough moving eastward. New thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon farther to the south and east across east/southeast TX, as the warm sector spreads northward in advance of a weak surface cyclone. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s beneath midlevel lapse rates near 8 C/km will drive MLCAPE ranging from 500 J/kg a little south of I-20 to 1500-2000 J/kg across southeast TX by late afternoon, where surface-based storms are likely with small breaks in the stratus. Vertical shear profiles will be characterized by sufficiently long hodographs (effective bulk shear in excess of 45 kt) and low-level hodograph curvature (effective SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2) for supercells. The initial storms will be more cellular across southeast TX with a gradual transition to a mixed mode/band of storms this evening into tonight as the storms spread eastward/northeastward across LA/southern AR. The surface-based supercells in southeast TX will be capable of producing tornadoes from early afternoon into late evening (including a strong/EF2+ tornado or two), along with isolated large hail (1-1.75 inches in diameter). With the gradual change in storms to a more linear mode, the potential for wind damage (and embedded tornadoes) will persist into tonight. ..Thompson/Moore.. 12/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST TX... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes, including a strong (potentially EF2+) tornado or two, will be possible this afternoon/evening across southeast Texas. Damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.75" in diameter will also be possible from east Texas this afternoon into Louisiana, southern Arkansas and far west central Mississippi overnight. ...East TX/LA/southern AR through tonight... Elevated convection has already formed over north central TX this morning in a band of ascent preceding a midlevel shortwave trough moving eastward. New thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon farther to the south and east across east/southeast TX, as the warm sector spreads northward in advance of a weak surface cyclone. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s beneath midlevel lapse rates near 8 C/km will drive MLCAPE ranging from 500 J/kg a little south of I-20 to 1500-2000 J/kg across southeast TX by late afternoon, where surface-based storms are likely with small breaks in the stratus. Vertical shear profiles will be characterized by sufficiently long hodographs (effective bulk shear in excess of 45 kt) and low-level hodograph curvature (effective SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2) for supercells. The initial storms will be more cellular across southeast TX with a gradual transition to a mixed mode/band of storms this evening into tonight as the storms spread eastward/northeastward across LA/southern AR. The surface-based supercells in southeast TX will be capable of producing tornadoes from early afternoon into late evening (including a strong/EF2+ tornado or two), along with isolated large hail (1-1.75 inches in diameter). With the gradual change in storms to a more linear mode, the potential for wind damage (and embedded tornadoes) will persist into tonight. ..Thompson/Moore.. 12/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST TX... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes, including a strong (potentially EF2+) tornado or two, will be possible this afternoon/evening across southeast Texas. Damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.75" in diameter will also be possible from east Texas this afternoon into Louisiana, southern Arkansas and far west central Mississippi overnight. ...East TX/LA/southern AR through tonight... Elevated convection has already formed over north central TX this morning in a band of ascent preceding a midlevel shortwave trough moving eastward. New thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon farther to the south and east across east/southeast TX, as the warm sector spreads northward in advance of a weak surface cyclone. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s beneath midlevel lapse rates near 8 C/km will drive MLCAPE ranging from 500 J/kg a little south of I-20 to 1500-2000 J/kg across southeast TX by late afternoon, where surface-based storms are likely with small breaks in the stratus. Vertical shear profiles will be characterized by sufficiently long hodographs (effective bulk shear in excess of 45 kt) and low-level hodograph curvature (effective SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2) for supercells. The initial storms will be more cellular across southeast TX with a gradual transition to a mixed mode/band of storms this evening into tonight as the storms spread eastward/northeastward across LA/southern AR. The surface-based supercells in southeast TX will be capable of producing tornadoes from early afternoon into late evening (including a strong/EF2+ tornado or two), along with isolated large hail (1-1.75 inches in diameter). With the gradual change in storms to a more linear mode, the potential for wind damage (and embedded tornadoes) will persist into tonight. ..Thompson/Moore.. 12/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST TX... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes, including a strong (potentially EF2+) tornado or two, will be possible this afternoon/evening across southeast Texas. Damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.75" in diameter will also be possible from east Texas this afternoon into Louisiana, southern Arkansas and far west central Mississippi overnight. ...East TX/LA/southern AR through tonight... Elevated convection has already formed over north central TX this morning in a band of ascent preceding a midlevel shortwave trough moving eastward. New thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon farther to the south and east across east/southeast TX, as the warm sector spreads northward in advance of a weak surface cyclone. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s beneath midlevel lapse rates near 8 C/km will drive MLCAPE ranging from 500 J/kg a little south of I-20 to 1500-2000 J/kg across southeast TX by late afternoon, where surface-based storms are likely with small breaks in the stratus. Vertical shear profiles will be characterized by sufficiently long hodographs (effective bulk shear in excess of 45 kt) and low-level hodograph curvature (effective SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2) for supercells. The initial storms will be more cellular across southeast TX with a gradual transition to a mixed mode/band of storms this evening into tonight as the storms spread eastward/northeastward across LA/southern AR. The surface-based supercells in southeast TX will be capable of producing tornadoes from early afternoon into late evening (including a strong/EF2+ tornado or two), along with isolated large hail (1-1.75 inches in diameter). With the gradual change in storms to a more linear mode, the potential for wind damage (and embedded tornadoes) will persist into tonight. ..Thompson/Moore.. 12/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST TX... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes, including a strong (potentially EF2+) tornado or two, will be possible this afternoon/evening across southeast Texas. Damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.75" in diameter will also be possible from east Texas this afternoon into Louisiana, southern Arkansas and far west central Mississippi overnight. ...East TX/LA/southern AR through tonight... Elevated convection has already formed over north central TX this morning in a band of ascent preceding a midlevel shortwave trough moving eastward. New thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon farther to the south and east across east/southeast TX, as the warm sector spreads northward in advance of a weak surface cyclone. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s beneath midlevel lapse rates near 8 C/km will drive MLCAPE ranging from 500 J/kg a little south of I-20 to 1500-2000 J/kg across southeast TX by late afternoon, where surface-based storms are likely with small breaks in the stratus. Vertical shear profiles will be characterized by sufficiently long hodographs (effective bulk shear in excess of 45 kt) and low-level hodograph curvature (effective SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2) for supercells. The initial storms will be more cellular across southeast TX with a gradual transition to a mixed mode/band of storms this evening into tonight as the storms spread eastward/northeastward across LA/southern AR. The surface-based supercells in southeast TX will be capable of producing tornadoes from early afternoon into late evening (including a strong/EF2+ tornado or two), along with isolated large hail (1-1.75 inches in diameter). With the gradual change in storms to a more linear mode, the potential for wind damage (and embedded tornadoes) will persist into tonight. ..Thompson/Moore.. 12/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST TX... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes, including a strong (potentially EF2+) tornado or two, will be possible this afternoon/evening across southeast Texas. Damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.75" in diameter will also be possible from east Texas this afternoon into Louisiana, southern Arkansas and far west central Mississippi overnight. ...East TX/LA/southern AR through tonight... Elevated convection has already formed over north central TX this morning in a band of ascent preceding a midlevel shortwave trough moving eastward. New thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon farther to the south and east across east/southeast TX, as the warm sector spreads northward in advance of a weak surface cyclone. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s beneath midlevel lapse rates near 8 C/km will drive MLCAPE ranging from 500 J/kg a little south of I-20 to 1500-2000 J/kg across southeast TX by late afternoon, where surface-based storms are likely with small breaks in the stratus. Vertical shear profiles will be characterized by sufficiently long hodographs (effective bulk shear in excess of 45 kt) and low-level hodograph curvature (effective SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2) for supercells. The initial storms will be more cellular across southeast TX with a gradual transition to a mixed mode/band of storms this evening into tonight as the storms spread eastward/northeastward across LA/southern AR. The surface-based supercells in southeast TX will be capable of producing tornadoes from early afternoon into late evening (including a strong/EF2+ tornado or two), along with isolated large hail (1-1.75 inches in diameter). With the gradual change in storms to a more linear mode, the potential for wind damage (and embedded tornadoes) will persist into tonight. ..Thompson/Moore.. 12/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST TX... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes, including a strong (potentially EF2+) tornado or two, will be possible this afternoon/evening across southeast Texas. Damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.75" in diameter will also be possible from east Texas this afternoon into Louisiana, southern Arkansas and far west central Mississippi overnight. ...East TX/LA/southern AR through tonight... Elevated convection has already formed over north central TX this morning in a band of ascent preceding a midlevel shortwave trough moving eastward. New thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon farther to the south and east across east/southeast TX, as the warm sector spreads northward in advance of a weak surface cyclone. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s beneath midlevel lapse rates near 8 C/km will drive MLCAPE ranging from 500 J/kg a little south of I-20 to 1500-2000 J/kg across southeast TX by late afternoon, where surface-based storms are likely with small breaks in the stratus. Vertical shear profiles will be characterized by sufficiently long hodographs (effective bulk shear in excess of 45 kt) and low-level hodograph curvature (effective SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2) for supercells. The initial storms will be more cellular across southeast TX with a gradual transition to a mixed mode/band of storms this evening into tonight as the storms spread eastward/northeastward across LA/southern AR. The surface-based supercells in southeast TX will be capable of producing tornadoes from early afternoon into late evening (including a strong/EF2+ tornado or two), along with isolated large hail (1-1.75 inches in diameter). With the gradual change in storms to a more linear mode, the potential for wind damage (and embedded tornadoes) will persist into tonight. ..Thompson/Moore.. 12/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST TX... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes, including a strong (potentially EF2+) tornado or two, will be possible this afternoon/evening across southeast Texas. Damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.75" in diameter will also be possible from east Texas this afternoon into Louisiana, southern Arkansas and far west central Mississippi overnight. ...East TX/LA/southern AR through tonight... Elevated convection has already formed over north central TX this morning in a band of ascent preceding a midlevel shortwave trough moving eastward. New thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon farther to the south and east across east/southeast TX, as the warm sector spreads northward in advance of a weak surface cyclone. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s beneath midlevel lapse rates near 8 C/km will drive MLCAPE ranging from 500 J/kg a little south of I-20 to 1500-2000 J/kg across southeast TX by late afternoon, where surface-based storms are likely with small breaks in the stratus. Vertical shear profiles will be characterized by sufficiently long hodographs (effective bulk shear in excess of 45 kt) and low-level hodograph curvature (effective SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2) for supercells. The initial storms will be more cellular across southeast TX with a gradual transition to a mixed mode/band of storms this evening into tonight as the storms spread eastward/northeastward across LA/southern AR. The surface-based supercells in southeast TX will be capable of producing tornadoes from early afternoon into late evening (including a strong/EF2+ tornado or two), along with isolated large hail (1-1.75 inches in diameter). With the gradual change in storms to a more linear mode, the potential for wind damage (and embedded tornadoes) will persist into tonight. ..Thompson/Moore.. 12/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST TX... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes, including a strong (potentially EF2+) tornado or two, will be possible this afternoon/evening across southeast Texas. Damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.75" in diameter will also be possible from east Texas this afternoon into Louisiana, southern Arkansas and far west central Mississippi overnight. ...East TX/LA/southern AR through tonight... Elevated convection has already formed over north central TX this morning in a band of ascent preceding a midlevel shortwave trough moving eastward. New thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon farther to the south and east across east/southeast TX, as the warm sector spreads northward in advance of a weak surface cyclone. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s beneath midlevel lapse rates near 8 C/km will drive MLCAPE ranging from 500 J/kg a little south of I-20 to 1500-2000 J/kg across southeast TX by late afternoon, where surface-based storms are likely with small breaks in the stratus. Vertical shear profiles will be characterized by sufficiently long hodographs (effective bulk shear in excess of 45 kt) and low-level hodograph curvature (effective SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2) for supercells. The initial storms will be more cellular across southeast TX with a gradual transition to a mixed mode/band of storms this evening into tonight as the storms spread eastward/northeastward across LA/southern AR. The surface-based supercells in southeast TX will be capable of producing tornadoes from early afternoon into late evening (including a strong/EF2+ tornado or two), along with isolated large hail (1-1.75 inches in diameter). With the gradual change in storms to a more linear mode, the potential for wind damage (and embedded tornadoes) will persist into tonight. ..Thompson/Moore.. 12/26/2024 Read more