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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND INTO FAR WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA.... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected Saturday from north-central Louisiana to west-central Alabama on Saturday. All severe weather hazards are possible. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough centered across the Texas Panhandle will move quickly across the southern Plains and become negatively tilted across the Ozarks by Saturday evening and into the Ohio Valley by Sunday morning. Rich low-level moisture will start to move inland across the Gulf Coast by 12Z Saturday and continue to advance inland through the day as low-level flow strengthens across the warm sector ahead of the surface low. ...Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley across the Southeast... A broad warm sector will be advancing inland across the Gulf Coast states Saturday morning as low-level flow strengthens ahead of the approaching trough. Initially, the warm sector will likely be mostly uncontaminated, but thunderstorm activity is expected to increase through the morning as the low-level jet strengthens. The timing and location of this morning convection will have a significant impact on the location and intensity of the severe weather threat on Saturday. Variance amongst forecast guidance unsurprisingly remains high given the very progressive mid-level pattern. Despite the uncertainty on specifics, a broad warm sector with mid 60s dewpoints, a negatively tilted trough, and a strengthening low-level jet will support the potential for a severe weather outbreak with multiple rounds of storms with all severe weather hazards possible. Given the timing/amplitude differences with the mid-level pattern, the highest threat corridor will likely shift in future outlooks. The GEFS is slightly slower than the operational GFS with the EPS slightly faster than the ECMWF suggesting a most likely solution somewhere in between. Within the enhanced risk corridor, forecast soundings show 45 to 50 knots of effective shear and instability ranging from 1000 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. This will support supercells with all severe weather hazards across much of the warm sector from northern Louisiana to western Alabama as early as late morning. The tornado threat remains more uncertain based on the final evolution of the mid-level trough. A slower trough ejection (such as is shown by the ECMWF) may cause more issues with destabilization and less favorable low-level hodographs as the low-level jet ramp up is delayed. The severe weather threat is expected to continue after dark from central Mississippi into western Alabama. Somewhere near central Alabama the convective intensity will likely start to wane as the mid-level trough starts to pull away and heights start to rise across the warm sector. ..Bentley.. 12/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND INTO FAR WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA.... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected Saturday from north-central Louisiana to west-central Alabama on Saturday. All severe weather hazards are possible. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough centered across the Texas Panhandle will move quickly across the southern Plains and become negatively tilted across the Ozarks by Saturday evening and into the Ohio Valley by Sunday morning. Rich low-level moisture will start to move inland across the Gulf Coast by 12Z Saturday and continue to advance inland through the day as low-level flow strengthens across the warm sector ahead of the surface low. ...Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley across the Southeast... A broad warm sector will be advancing inland across the Gulf Coast states Saturday morning as low-level flow strengthens ahead of the approaching trough. Initially, the warm sector will likely be mostly uncontaminated, but thunderstorm activity is expected to increase through the morning as the low-level jet strengthens. The timing and location of this morning convection will have a significant impact on the location and intensity of the severe weather threat on Saturday. Variance amongst forecast guidance unsurprisingly remains high given the very progressive mid-level pattern. Despite the uncertainty on specifics, a broad warm sector with mid 60s dewpoints, a negatively tilted trough, and a strengthening low-level jet will support the potential for a severe weather outbreak with multiple rounds of storms with all severe weather hazards possible. Given the timing/amplitude differences with the mid-level pattern, the highest threat corridor will likely shift in future outlooks. The GEFS is slightly slower than the operational GFS with the EPS slightly faster than the ECMWF suggesting a most likely solution somewhere in between. Within the enhanced risk corridor, forecast soundings show 45 to 50 knots of effective shear and instability ranging from 1000 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. This will support supercells with all severe weather hazards across much of the warm sector from northern Louisiana to western Alabama as early as late morning. The tornado threat remains more uncertain based on the final evolution of the mid-level trough. A slower trough ejection (such as is shown by the ECMWF) may cause more issues with destabilization and less favorable low-level hodographs as the low-level jet ramp up is delayed. The severe weather threat is expected to continue after dark from central Mississippi into western Alabama. Somewhere near central Alabama the convective intensity will likely start to wane as the mid-level trough starts to pull away and heights start to rise across the warm sector. ..Bentley.. 12/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND INTO FAR WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA.... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected Saturday from north-central Louisiana to west-central Alabama on Saturday. All severe weather hazards are possible. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough centered across the Texas Panhandle will move quickly across the southern Plains and become negatively tilted across the Ozarks by Saturday evening and into the Ohio Valley by Sunday morning. Rich low-level moisture will start to move inland across the Gulf Coast by 12Z Saturday and continue to advance inland through the day as low-level flow strengthens across the warm sector ahead of the surface low. ...Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley across the Southeast... A broad warm sector will be advancing inland across the Gulf Coast states Saturday morning as low-level flow strengthens ahead of the approaching trough. Initially, the warm sector will likely be mostly uncontaminated, but thunderstorm activity is expected to increase through the morning as the low-level jet strengthens. The timing and location of this morning convection will have a significant impact on the location and intensity of the severe weather threat on Saturday. Variance amongst forecast guidance unsurprisingly remains high given the very progressive mid-level pattern. Despite the uncertainty on specifics, a broad warm sector with mid 60s dewpoints, a negatively tilted trough, and a strengthening low-level jet will support the potential for a severe weather outbreak with multiple rounds of storms with all severe weather hazards possible. Given the timing/amplitude differences with the mid-level pattern, the highest threat corridor will likely shift in future outlooks. The GEFS is slightly slower than the operational GFS with the EPS slightly faster than the ECMWF suggesting a most likely solution somewhere in between. Within the enhanced risk corridor, forecast soundings show 45 to 50 knots of effective shear and instability ranging from 1000 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. This will support supercells with all severe weather hazards across much of the warm sector from northern Louisiana to western Alabama as early as late morning. The tornado threat remains more uncertain based on the final evolution of the mid-level trough. A slower trough ejection (such as is shown by the ECMWF) may cause more issues with destabilization and less favorable low-level hodographs as the low-level jet ramp up is delayed. The severe weather threat is expected to continue after dark from central Mississippi into western Alabama. Somewhere near central Alabama the convective intensity will likely start to wane as the mid-level trough starts to pull away and heights start to rise across the warm sector. ..Bentley.. 12/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND INTO FAR WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA.... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected Saturday from north-central Louisiana to west-central Alabama on Saturday. All severe weather hazards are possible. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough centered across the Texas Panhandle will move quickly across the southern Plains and become negatively tilted across the Ozarks by Saturday evening and into the Ohio Valley by Sunday morning. Rich low-level moisture will start to move inland across the Gulf Coast by 12Z Saturday and continue to advance inland through the day as low-level flow strengthens across the warm sector ahead of the surface low. ...Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley across the Southeast... A broad warm sector will be advancing inland across the Gulf Coast states Saturday morning as low-level flow strengthens ahead of the approaching trough. Initially, the warm sector will likely be mostly uncontaminated, but thunderstorm activity is expected to increase through the morning as the low-level jet strengthens. The timing and location of this morning convection will have a significant impact on the location and intensity of the severe weather threat on Saturday. Variance amongst forecast guidance unsurprisingly remains high given the very progressive mid-level pattern. Despite the uncertainty on specifics, a broad warm sector with mid 60s dewpoints, a negatively tilted trough, and a strengthening low-level jet will support the potential for a severe weather outbreak with multiple rounds of storms with all severe weather hazards possible. Given the timing/amplitude differences with the mid-level pattern, the highest threat corridor will likely shift in future outlooks. The GEFS is slightly slower than the operational GFS with the EPS slightly faster than the ECMWF suggesting a most likely solution somewhere in between. Within the enhanced risk corridor, forecast soundings show 45 to 50 knots of effective shear and instability ranging from 1000 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. This will support supercells with all severe weather hazards across much of the warm sector from northern Louisiana to western Alabama as early as late morning. The tornado threat remains more uncertain based on the final evolution of the mid-level trough. A slower trough ejection (such as is shown by the ECMWF) may cause more issues with destabilization and less favorable low-level hodographs as the low-level jet ramp up is delayed. The severe weather threat is expected to continue after dark from central Mississippi into western Alabama. Somewhere near central Alabama the convective intensity will likely start to wane as the mid-level trough starts to pull away and heights start to rise across the warm sector. ..Bentley.. 12/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND INTO FAR WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA.... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected Saturday from north-central Louisiana to west-central Alabama on Saturday. All severe weather hazards are possible. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough centered across the Texas Panhandle will move quickly across the southern Plains and become negatively tilted across the Ozarks by Saturday evening and into the Ohio Valley by Sunday morning. Rich low-level moisture will start to move inland across the Gulf Coast by 12Z Saturday and continue to advance inland through the day as low-level flow strengthens across the warm sector ahead of the surface low. ...Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley across the Southeast... A broad warm sector will be advancing inland across the Gulf Coast states Saturday morning as low-level flow strengthens ahead of the approaching trough. Initially, the warm sector will likely be mostly uncontaminated, but thunderstorm activity is expected to increase through the morning as the low-level jet strengthens. The timing and location of this morning convection will have a significant impact on the location and intensity of the severe weather threat on Saturday. Variance amongst forecast guidance unsurprisingly remains high given the very progressive mid-level pattern. Despite the uncertainty on specifics, a broad warm sector with mid 60s dewpoints, a negatively tilted trough, and a strengthening low-level jet will support the potential for a severe weather outbreak with multiple rounds of storms with all severe weather hazards possible. Given the timing/amplitude differences with the mid-level pattern, the highest threat corridor will likely shift in future outlooks. The GEFS is slightly slower than the operational GFS with the EPS slightly faster than the ECMWF suggesting a most likely solution somewhere in between. Within the enhanced risk corridor, forecast soundings show 45 to 50 knots of effective shear and instability ranging from 1000 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. This will support supercells with all severe weather hazards across much of the warm sector from northern Louisiana to western Alabama as early as late morning. The tornado threat remains more uncertain based on the final evolution of the mid-level trough. A slower trough ejection (such as is shown by the ECMWF) may cause more issues with destabilization and less favorable low-level hodographs as the low-level jet ramp up is delayed. The severe weather threat is expected to continue after dark from central Mississippi into western Alabama. Somewhere near central Alabama the convective intensity will likely start to wane as the mid-level trough starts to pull away and heights start to rise across the warm sector. ..Bentley.. 12/26/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 20-25 percent RH are likely across portions of the southern High Plains tomorrow afternoon given downslope flow. However, fuels still appear too marginally receptive to wildfire spread to support any fire weather highlights at this time. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad/strong west-northwesterly midlevel flow across the central/southern Rockies will maintain lee troughing along the adjacent High Plains. As a result, breezy downslope flow with modest RH reductions will develop across the southern High Plains during the afternoon. However, marginal RH and fuels should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 20-25 percent RH are likely across portions of the southern High Plains tomorrow afternoon given downslope flow. However, fuels still appear too marginally receptive to wildfire spread to support any fire weather highlights at this time. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad/strong west-northwesterly midlevel flow across the central/southern Rockies will maintain lee troughing along the adjacent High Plains. As a result, breezy downslope flow with modest RH reductions will develop across the southern High Plains during the afternoon. However, marginal RH and fuels should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 20-25 percent RH are likely across portions of the southern High Plains tomorrow afternoon given downslope flow. However, fuels still appear too marginally receptive to wildfire spread to support any fire weather highlights at this time. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad/strong west-northwesterly midlevel flow across the central/southern Rockies will maintain lee troughing along the adjacent High Plains. As a result, breezy downslope flow with modest RH reductions will develop across the southern High Plains during the afternoon. However, marginal RH and fuels should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 20-25 percent RH are likely across portions of the southern High Plains tomorrow afternoon given downslope flow. However, fuels still appear too marginally receptive to wildfire spread to support any fire weather highlights at this time. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad/strong west-northwesterly midlevel flow across the central/southern Rockies will maintain lee troughing along the adjacent High Plains. As a result, breezy downslope flow with modest RH reductions will develop across the southern High Plains during the afternoon. However, marginal RH and fuels should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 20-25 percent RH are likely across portions of the southern High Plains tomorrow afternoon given downslope flow. However, fuels still appear too marginally receptive to wildfire spread to support any fire weather highlights at this time. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad/strong west-northwesterly midlevel flow across the central/southern Rockies will maintain lee troughing along the adjacent High Plains. As a result, breezy downslope flow with modest RH reductions will develop across the southern High Plains during the afternoon. However, marginal RH and fuels should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 20-25 percent RH are likely across portions of the southern High Plains tomorrow afternoon given downslope flow. However, fuels still appear too marginally receptive to wildfire spread to support any fire weather highlights at this time. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad/strong west-northwesterly midlevel flow across the central/southern Rockies will maintain lee troughing along the adjacent High Plains. As a result, breezy downslope flow with modest RH reductions will develop across the southern High Plains during the afternoon. However, marginal RH and fuels should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 20-25 percent RH are likely across portions of the southern High Plains tomorrow afternoon given downslope flow. However, fuels still appear too marginally receptive to wildfire spread to support any fire weather highlights at this time. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad/strong west-northwesterly midlevel flow across the central/southern Rockies will maintain lee troughing along the adjacent High Plains. As a result, breezy downslope flow with modest RH reductions will develop across the southern High Plains during the afternoon. However, marginal RH and fuels should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 20-25 percent RH are likely across portions of the southern High Plains tomorrow afternoon given downslope flow. However, fuels still appear too marginally receptive to wildfire spread to support any fire weather highlights at this time. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad/strong west-northwesterly midlevel flow across the central/southern Rockies will maintain lee troughing along the adjacent High Plains. As a result, breezy downslope flow with modest RH reductions will develop across the southern High Plains during the afternoon. However, marginal RH and fuels should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 20-25 percent RH are likely across portions of the southern High Plains tomorrow afternoon given downslope flow. However, fuels still appear too marginally receptive to wildfire spread to support any fire weather highlights at this time. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad/strong west-northwesterly midlevel flow across the central/southern Rockies will maintain lee troughing along the adjacent High Plains. As a result, breezy downslope flow with modest RH reductions will develop across the southern High Plains during the afternoon. However, marginal RH and fuels should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 20-25 percent RH are likely across portions of the southern High Plains tomorrow afternoon given downslope flow. However, fuels still appear too marginally receptive to wildfire spread to support any fire weather highlights at this time. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad/strong west-northwesterly midlevel flow across the central/southern Rockies will maintain lee troughing along the adjacent High Plains. As a result, breezy downslope flow with modest RH reductions will develop across the southern High Plains during the afternoon. However, marginal RH and fuels should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 20-25 percent RH are likely across portions of the southern High Plains tomorrow afternoon given downslope flow. However, fuels still appear too marginally receptive to wildfire spread to support any fire weather highlights at this time. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad/strong west-northwesterly midlevel flow across the central/southern Rockies will maintain lee troughing along the adjacent High Plains. As a result, breezy downslope flow with modest RH reductions will develop across the southern High Plains during the afternoon. However, marginal RH and fuels should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 20-25 percent RH are likely across portions of the southern High Plains tomorrow afternoon given downslope flow. However, fuels still appear too marginally receptive to wildfire spread to support any fire weather highlights at this time. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad/strong west-northwesterly midlevel flow across the central/southern Rockies will maintain lee troughing along the adjacent High Plains. As a result, breezy downslope flow with modest RH reductions will develop across the southern High Plains during the afternoon. However, marginal RH and fuels should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 20-25 percent RH are likely across portions of the southern High Plains tomorrow afternoon given downslope flow. However, fuels still appear too marginally receptive to wildfire spread to support any fire weather highlights at this time. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad/strong west-northwesterly midlevel flow across the central/southern Rockies will maintain lee troughing along the adjacent High Plains. As a result, breezy downslope flow with modest RH reductions will develop across the southern High Plains during the afternoon. However, marginal RH and fuels should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 20-25 percent RH are likely across portions of the southern High Plains tomorrow afternoon given downslope flow. However, fuels still appear too marginally receptive to wildfire spread to support any fire weather highlights at this time. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad/strong west-northwesterly midlevel flow across the central/southern Rockies will maintain lee troughing along the adjacent High Plains. As a result, breezy downslope flow with modest RH reductions will develop across the southern High Plains during the afternoon. However, marginal RH and fuels should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2282 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO EAST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2282 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Areas affected...The Texas Coastal Plain into East Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 261623Z - 261900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe thunderstorm threat is expected to steadily increase through the late morning and afternoon as the environment becomes more favorable for robust convection. Watch issuance is anticipated in the coming hours to address this threat. DISCUSSION...Open warm sector convection has been steadily increasing in both coverage and depth over the past hour across the TX Coastal Plain into southeast TX with a few deeper cells beginning to reach sufficient depth for steady lightning production. Recent surface observations show the early stages of surface cyclogenesis across north TX with an attendant increase in southeasterly winds and a steady northwestward progression of low-level moisture. Despite extensive cloud cover, mid-60s dewpoints, combined with 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, should promote MLCAPE values increasing into the 1000-2000 J/kg range by early afternoon. Coincidentally, the low/mid-level mass response associated with the deepening surface low should promote increasing low-level SRH and deep-layer wind shear that should promote supercellular storm modes within the open warm sector. As such, the expectation is that the developing convection should continue to slowly deepen and intensify through early afternoon with an attendant increase in the overall severe threat. Exact timing of when convection will become sufficiently intense to warrant watch issuance remains uncertain (though a watch will likely be needed by early-afternoon), but given the potential for supercellular tornadoes, including significant tornadoes, a tornado watch will likely be needed. ..Moore/Thompson.. 12/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... LAT...LON 30019407 29059582 29059627 29169666 29389700 29959715 30379710 31759498 31789449 31599419 31169395 30799378 30479374 30259380 30019407 Read more