Aggregator

WW 0715 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 715 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE VCT TO 40 NW HOU TO 40 NW LFK TO 15 NE TYR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2285 ..MOORE..12/26/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...HGX...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 715 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC031-085-262140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE DE SOTO SABINE TXC005-039-071-073-157-167-199-201-241-245-291-339-347-351-361- 365-373-401-403-405-407-419-455-457-481-262140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA BRAZORIA CHAMBERS CHEROKEE FORT BEND GALVESTON HARDIN HARRIS JASPER JEFFERSON LIBERTY MONTGOMERY NACOGDOCHES NEWTON ORANGE PANOLA POLK RUSK SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SAN JACINTO SHELBY TRINITY TYLER WHARTON Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Multiple mid-level troughs will progress across the CONUS into the middle of next week before an upper ridge begins to build over the Interior West. Multiple surface lows will develop across the Plains and track eastward toward the East Coast before High Pressure overspreads the CONUS by the end of the period. Through the extended period, cool conditions across the northern U.S., and ample precipitation accumulations from central California into the Northwest, as well as the southern/central Plains to the East Coast, will mitigate significant wildfire-spread concerns. Dry and breezy conditions are likely into the weekend over the southern High Plains, before a surface low rapidly deepens over the central Plains on Day 5/Monday, which will encourage Critically dry and windy conditions over the southern High Plains. Given preceding dry days with no appreciable rainfall accumulations, fine fuels may dry out enough by Monday to support some wildfire-spread potential, with 40 percent Critical probabilities introduced. By the middle of next week, surface high pressure will become well-established over the Great Basin, which may support the development of a modest pressure gradient over southern California. Medium-range guidance consensus depicts dry low-level air with some offshore component of flow. The strength of the pressure gradient and associated offshore wind speeds do not appear strong enough to support Critical probabilities at this time. However, probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if model guidance trends stronger with the surface winds. It is also plausible that terrain-influences may locally augment surface winds and the subsequent need for Elevated highlights by the Days 1-2 time frame for next Tuesday-Thursday. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Multiple mid-level troughs will progress across the CONUS into the middle of next week before an upper ridge begins to build over the Interior West. Multiple surface lows will develop across the Plains and track eastward toward the East Coast before High Pressure overspreads the CONUS by the end of the period. Through the extended period, cool conditions across the northern U.S., and ample precipitation accumulations from central California into the Northwest, as well as the southern/central Plains to the East Coast, will mitigate significant wildfire-spread concerns. Dry and breezy conditions are likely into the weekend over the southern High Plains, before a surface low rapidly deepens over the central Plains on Day 5/Monday, which will encourage Critically dry and windy conditions over the southern High Plains. Given preceding dry days with no appreciable rainfall accumulations, fine fuels may dry out enough by Monday to support some wildfire-spread potential, with 40 percent Critical probabilities introduced. By the middle of next week, surface high pressure will become well-established over the Great Basin, which may support the development of a modest pressure gradient over southern California. Medium-range guidance consensus depicts dry low-level air with some offshore component of flow. The strength of the pressure gradient and associated offshore wind speeds do not appear strong enough to support Critical probabilities at this time. However, probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if model guidance trends stronger with the surface winds. It is also plausible that terrain-influences may locally augment surface winds and the subsequent need for Elevated highlights by the Days 1-2 time frame for next Tuesday-Thursday. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Multiple mid-level troughs will progress across the CONUS into the middle of next week before an upper ridge begins to build over the Interior West. Multiple surface lows will develop across the Plains and track eastward toward the East Coast before High Pressure overspreads the CONUS by the end of the period. Through the extended period, cool conditions across the northern U.S., and ample precipitation accumulations from central California into the Northwest, as well as the southern/central Plains to the East Coast, will mitigate significant wildfire-spread concerns. Dry and breezy conditions are likely into the weekend over the southern High Plains, before a surface low rapidly deepens over the central Plains on Day 5/Monday, which will encourage Critically dry and windy conditions over the southern High Plains. Given preceding dry days with no appreciable rainfall accumulations, fine fuels may dry out enough by Monday to support some wildfire-spread potential, with 40 percent Critical probabilities introduced. By the middle of next week, surface high pressure will become well-established over the Great Basin, which may support the development of a modest pressure gradient over southern California. Medium-range guidance consensus depicts dry low-level air with some offshore component of flow. The strength of the pressure gradient and associated offshore wind speeds do not appear strong enough to support Critical probabilities at this time. However, probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if model guidance trends stronger with the surface winds. It is also plausible that terrain-influences may locally augment surface winds and the subsequent need for Elevated highlights by the Days 1-2 time frame for next Tuesday-Thursday. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Multiple mid-level troughs will progress across the CONUS into the middle of next week before an upper ridge begins to build over the Interior West. Multiple surface lows will develop across the Plains and track eastward toward the East Coast before High Pressure overspreads the CONUS by the end of the period. Through the extended period, cool conditions across the northern U.S., and ample precipitation accumulations from central California into the Northwest, as well as the southern/central Plains to the East Coast, will mitigate significant wildfire-spread concerns. Dry and breezy conditions are likely into the weekend over the southern High Plains, before a surface low rapidly deepens over the central Plains on Day 5/Monday, which will encourage Critically dry and windy conditions over the southern High Plains. Given preceding dry days with no appreciable rainfall accumulations, fine fuels may dry out enough by Monday to support some wildfire-spread potential, with 40 percent Critical probabilities introduced. By the middle of next week, surface high pressure will become well-established over the Great Basin, which may support the development of a modest pressure gradient over southern California. Medium-range guidance consensus depicts dry low-level air with some offshore component of flow. The strength of the pressure gradient and associated offshore wind speeds do not appear strong enough to support Critical probabilities at this time. However, probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if model guidance trends stronger with the surface winds. It is also plausible that terrain-influences may locally augment surface winds and the subsequent need for Elevated highlights by the Days 1-2 time frame for next Tuesday-Thursday. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Multiple mid-level troughs will progress across the CONUS into the middle of next week before an upper ridge begins to build over the Interior West. Multiple surface lows will develop across the Plains and track eastward toward the East Coast before High Pressure overspreads the CONUS by the end of the period. Through the extended period, cool conditions across the northern U.S., and ample precipitation accumulations from central California into the Northwest, as well as the southern/central Plains to the East Coast, will mitigate significant wildfire-spread concerns. Dry and breezy conditions are likely into the weekend over the southern High Plains, before a surface low rapidly deepens over the central Plains on Day 5/Monday, which will encourage Critically dry and windy conditions over the southern High Plains. Given preceding dry days with no appreciable rainfall accumulations, fine fuels may dry out enough by Monday to support some wildfire-spread potential, with 40 percent Critical probabilities introduced. By the middle of next week, surface high pressure will become well-established over the Great Basin, which may support the development of a modest pressure gradient over southern California. Medium-range guidance consensus depicts dry low-level air with some offshore component of flow. The strength of the pressure gradient and associated offshore wind speeds do not appear strong enough to support Critical probabilities at this time. However, probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if model guidance trends stronger with the surface winds. It is also plausible that terrain-influences may locally augment surface winds and the subsequent need for Elevated highlights by the Days 1-2 time frame for next Tuesday-Thursday. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Multiple mid-level troughs will progress across the CONUS into the middle of next week before an upper ridge begins to build over the Interior West. Multiple surface lows will develop across the Plains and track eastward toward the East Coast before High Pressure overspreads the CONUS by the end of the period. Through the extended period, cool conditions across the northern U.S., and ample precipitation accumulations from central California into the Northwest, as well as the southern/central Plains to the East Coast, will mitigate significant wildfire-spread concerns. Dry and breezy conditions are likely into the weekend over the southern High Plains, before a surface low rapidly deepens over the central Plains on Day 5/Monday, which will encourage Critically dry and windy conditions over the southern High Plains. Given preceding dry days with no appreciable rainfall accumulations, fine fuels may dry out enough by Monday to support some wildfire-spread potential, with 40 percent Critical probabilities introduced. By the middle of next week, surface high pressure will become well-established over the Great Basin, which may support the development of a modest pressure gradient over southern California. Medium-range guidance consensus depicts dry low-level air with some offshore component of flow. The strength of the pressure gradient and associated offshore wind speeds do not appear strong enough to support Critical probabilities at this time. However, probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if model guidance trends stronger with the surface winds. It is also plausible that terrain-influences may locally augment surface winds and the subsequent need for Elevated highlights by the Days 1-2 time frame for next Tuesday-Thursday. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Multiple mid-level troughs will progress across the CONUS into the middle of next week before an upper ridge begins to build over the Interior West. Multiple surface lows will develop across the Plains and track eastward toward the East Coast before High Pressure overspreads the CONUS by the end of the period. Through the extended period, cool conditions across the northern U.S., and ample precipitation accumulations from central California into the Northwest, as well as the southern/central Plains to the East Coast, will mitigate significant wildfire-spread concerns. Dry and breezy conditions are likely into the weekend over the southern High Plains, before a surface low rapidly deepens over the central Plains on Day 5/Monday, which will encourage Critically dry and windy conditions over the southern High Plains. Given preceding dry days with no appreciable rainfall accumulations, fine fuels may dry out enough by Monday to support some wildfire-spread potential, with 40 percent Critical probabilities introduced. By the middle of next week, surface high pressure will become well-established over the Great Basin, which may support the development of a modest pressure gradient over southern California. Medium-range guidance consensus depicts dry low-level air with some offshore component of flow. The strength of the pressure gradient and associated offshore wind speeds do not appear strong enough to support Critical probabilities at this time. However, probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if model guidance trends stronger with the surface winds. It is also plausible that terrain-influences may locally augment surface winds and the subsequent need for Elevated highlights by the Days 1-2 time frame for next Tuesday-Thursday. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Multiple mid-level troughs will progress across the CONUS into the middle of next week before an upper ridge begins to build over the Interior West. Multiple surface lows will develop across the Plains and track eastward toward the East Coast before High Pressure overspreads the CONUS by the end of the period. Through the extended period, cool conditions across the northern U.S., and ample precipitation accumulations from central California into the Northwest, as well as the southern/central Plains to the East Coast, will mitigate significant wildfire-spread concerns. Dry and breezy conditions are likely into the weekend over the southern High Plains, before a surface low rapidly deepens over the central Plains on Day 5/Monday, which will encourage Critically dry and windy conditions over the southern High Plains. Given preceding dry days with no appreciable rainfall accumulations, fine fuels may dry out enough by Monday to support some wildfire-spread potential, with 40 percent Critical probabilities introduced. By the middle of next week, surface high pressure will become well-established over the Great Basin, which may support the development of a modest pressure gradient over southern California. Medium-range guidance consensus depicts dry low-level air with some offshore component of flow. The strength of the pressure gradient and associated offshore wind speeds do not appear strong enough to support Critical probabilities at this time. However, probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if model guidance trends stronger with the surface winds. It is also plausible that terrain-influences may locally augment surface winds and the subsequent need for Elevated highlights by the Days 1-2 time frame for next Tuesday-Thursday. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Multiple mid-level troughs will progress across the CONUS into the middle of next week before an upper ridge begins to build over the Interior West. Multiple surface lows will develop across the Plains and track eastward toward the East Coast before High Pressure overspreads the CONUS by the end of the period. Through the extended period, cool conditions across the northern U.S., and ample precipitation accumulations from central California into the Northwest, as well as the southern/central Plains to the East Coast, will mitigate significant wildfire-spread concerns. Dry and breezy conditions are likely into the weekend over the southern High Plains, before a surface low rapidly deepens over the central Plains on Day 5/Monday, which will encourage Critically dry and windy conditions over the southern High Plains. Given preceding dry days with no appreciable rainfall accumulations, fine fuels may dry out enough by Monday to support some wildfire-spread potential, with 40 percent Critical probabilities introduced. By the middle of next week, surface high pressure will become well-established over the Great Basin, which may support the development of a modest pressure gradient over southern California. Medium-range guidance consensus depicts dry low-level air with some offshore component of flow. The strength of the pressure gradient and associated offshore wind speeds do not appear strong enough to support Critical probabilities at this time. However, probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if model guidance trends stronger with the surface winds. It is also plausible that terrain-influences may locally augment surface winds and the subsequent need for Elevated highlights by the Days 1-2 time frame for next Tuesday-Thursday. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Multiple mid-level troughs will progress across the CONUS into the middle of next week before an upper ridge begins to build over the Interior West. Multiple surface lows will develop across the Plains and track eastward toward the East Coast before High Pressure overspreads the CONUS by the end of the period. Through the extended period, cool conditions across the northern U.S., and ample precipitation accumulations from central California into the Northwest, as well as the southern/central Plains to the East Coast, will mitigate significant wildfire-spread concerns. Dry and breezy conditions are likely into the weekend over the southern High Plains, before a surface low rapidly deepens over the central Plains on Day 5/Monday, which will encourage Critically dry and windy conditions over the southern High Plains. Given preceding dry days with no appreciable rainfall accumulations, fine fuels may dry out enough by Monday to support some wildfire-spread potential, with 40 percent Critical probabilities introduced. By the middle of next week, surface high pressure will become well-established over the Great Basin, which may support the development of a modest pressure gradient over southern California. Medium-range guidance consensus depicts dry low-level air with some offshore component of flow. The strength of the pressure gradient and associated offshore wind speeds do not appear strong enough to support Critical probabilities at this time. However, probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if model guidance trends stronger with the surface winds. It is also plausible that terrain-influences may locally augment surface winds and the subsequent need for Elevated highlights by the Days 1-2 time frame for next Tuesday-Thursday. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Multiple mid-level troughs will progress across the CONUS into the middle of next week before an upper ridge begins to build over the Interior West. Multiple surface lows will develop across the Plains and track eastward toward the East Coast before High Pressure overspreads the CONUS by the end of the period. Through the extended period, cool conditions across the northern U.S., and ample precipitation accumulations from central California into the Northwest, as well as the southern/central Plains to the East Coast, will mitigate significant wildfire-spread concerns. Dry and breezy conditions are likely into the weekend over the southern High Plains, before a surface low rapidly deepens over the central Plains on Day 5/Monday, which will encourage Critically dry and windy conditions over the southern High Plains. Given preceding dry days with no appreciable rainfall accumulations, fine fuels may dry out enough by Monday to support some wildfire-spread potential, with 40 percent Critical probabilities introduced. By the middle of next week, surface high pressure will become well-established over the Great Basin, which may support the development of a modest pressure gradient over southern California. Medium-range guidance consensus depicts dry low-level air with some offshore component of flow. The strength of the pressure gradient and associated offshore wind speeds do not appear strong enough to support Critical probabilities at this time. However, probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if model guidance trends stronger with the surface winds. It is also plausible that terrain-influences may locally augment surface winds and the subsequent need for Elevated highlights by the Days 1-2 time frame for next Tuesday-Thursday. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Multiple mid-level troughs will progress across the CONUS into the middle of next week before an upper ridge begins to build over the Interior West. Multiple surface lows will develop across the Plains and track eastward toward the East Coast before High Pressure overspreads the CONUS by the end of the period. Through the extended period, cool conditions across the northern U.S., and ample precipitation accumulations from central California into the Northwest, as well as the southern/central Plains to the East Coast, will mitigate significant wildfire-spread concerns. Dry and breezy conditions are likely into the weekend over the southern High Plains, before a surface low rapidly deepens over the central Plains on Day 5/Monday, which will encourage Critically dry and windy conditions over the southern High Plains. Given preceding dry days with no appreciable rainfall accumulations, fine fuels may dry out enough by Monday to support some wildfire-spread potential, with 40 percent Critical probabilities introduced. By the middle of next week, surface high pressure will become well-established over the Great Basin, which may support the development of a modest pressure gradient over southern California. Medium-range guidance consensus depicts dry low-level air with some offshore component of flow. The strength of the pressure gradient and associated offshore wind speeds do not appear strong enough to support Critical probabilities at this time. However, probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if model guidance trends stronger with the surface winds. It is also plausible that terrain-influences may locally augment surface winds and the subsequent need for Elevated highlights by the Days 1-2 time frame for next Tuesday-Thursday. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Multiple mid-level troughs will progress across the CONUS into the middle of next week before an upper ridge begins to build over the Interior West. Multiple surface lows will develop across the Plains and track eastward toward the East Coast before High Pressure overspreads the CONUS by the end of the period. Through the extended period, cool conditions across the northern U.S., and ample precipitation accumulations from central California into the Northwest, as well as the southern/central Plains to the East Coast, will mitigate significant wildfire-spread concerns. Dry and breezy conditions are likely into the weekend over the southern High Plains, before a surface low rapidly deepens over the central Plains on Day 5/Monday, which will encourage Critically dry and windy conditions over the southern High Plains. Given preceding dry days with no appreciable rainfall accumulations, fine fuels may dry out enough by Monday to support some wildfire-spread potential, with 40 percent Critical probabilities introduced. By the middle of next week, surface high pressure will become well-established over the Great Basin, which may support the development of a modest pressure gradient over southern California. Medium-range guidance consensus depicts dry low-level air with some offshore component of flow. The strength of the pressure gradient and associated offshore wind speeds do not appear strong enough to support Critical probabilities at this time. However, probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if model guidance trends stronger with the surface winds. It is also plausible that terrain-influences may locally augment surface winds and the subsequent need for Elevated highlights by the Days 1-2 time frame for next Tuesday-Thursday. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes, including a strong (potentially EF2+) tornado or two, will be possible this afternoon/evening across southeast Texas. Damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.75" in diameter will also be possible from east Texas this afternoon into Louisiana, southern Arkansas and far west central Mississippi overnight. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities in parts of central Texas have been adjusted to account for the progression of ongoing convection. Quasi-discrete supercells continue in parts of southeast Texas as well as to the northwest of Houston. These storms will continue to post the greatest threat for tornadoes (potentially strong). See MCD 2284 and 2285 for additional short-term, mesoscale details. ..Wendt.. 12/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024/ ...East TX/LA/southern AR through tonight... Elevated convection has already formed over north central TX this morning in a band of ascent preceding a midlevel shortwave trough moving eastward. New thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon farther to the south and east across east/southeast TX, as the warm sector spreads northward in advance of a weak surface cyclone. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s beneath midlevel lapse rates near 8 C/km will drive MLCAPE ranging from 500 J/kg a little south of I-20 to 1500-2000 J/kg across southeast TX by late afternoon, where surface-based storms are likely with small breaks in the stratus. Vertical shear profiles will be characterized by sufficiently long hodographs (effective bulk shear in excess of 45 kt) and low-level hodograph curvature (effective SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2) for supercells. The initial storms will be more cellular across southeast TX with a gradual transition to a mixed mode/band of storms this evening into tonight as the storms spread eastward/northeastward across LA/southern AR. The surface-based supercells in southeast TX will be capable of producing tornadoes from early afternoon into late evening (including a strong/EF2+ tornado or two), along with isolated large hail (1-1.75 inches in diameter). With the gradual change in storms to a more linear mode, the potential for wind damage (and embedded tornadoes) will persist into tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes, including a strong (potentially EF2+) tornado or two, will be possible this afternoon/evening across southeast Texas. Damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.75" in diameter will also be possible from east Texas this afternoon into Louisiana, southern Arkansas and far west central Mississippi overnight. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities in parts of central Texas have been adjusted to account for the progression of ongoing convection. Quasi-discrete supercells continue in parts of southeast Texas as well as to the northwest of Houston. These storms will continue to post the greatest threat for tornadoes (potentially strong). See MCD 2284 and 2285 for additional short-term, mesoscale details. ..Wendt.. 12/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024/ ...East TX/LA/southern AR through tonight... Elevated convection has already formed over north central TX this morning in a band of ascent preceding a midlevel shortwave trough moving eastward. New thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon farther to the south and east across east/southeast TX, as the warm sector spreads northward in advance of a weak surface cyclone. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s beneath midlevel lapse rates near 8 C/km will drive MLCAPE ranging from 500 J/kg a little south of I-20 to 1500-2000 J/kg across southeast TX by late afternoon, where surface-based storms are likely with small breaks in the stratus. Vertical shear profiles will be characterized by sufficiently long hodographs (effective bulk shear in excess of 45 kt) and low-level hodograph curvature (effective SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2) for supercells. The initial storms will be more cellular across southeast TX with a gradual transition to a mixed mode/band of storms this evening into tonight as the storms spread eastward/northeastward across LA/southern AR. The surface-based supercells in southeast TX will be capable of producing tornadoes from early afternoon into late evening (including a strong/EF2+ tornado or two), along with isolated large hail (1-1.75 inches in diameter). With the gradual change in storms to a more linear mode, the potential for wind damage (and embedded tornadoes) will persist into tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes, including a strong (potentially EF2+) tornado or two, will be possible this afternoon/evening across southeast Texas. Damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.75" in diameter will also be possible from east Texas this afternoon into Louisiana, southern Arkansas and far west central Mississippi overnight. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities in parts of central Texas have been adjusted to account for the progression of ongoing convection. Quasi-discrete supercells continue in parts of southeast Texas as well as to the northwest of Houston. These storms will continue to post the greatest threat for tornadoes (potentially strong). See MCD 2284 and 2285 for additional short-term, mesoscale details. ..Wendt.. 12/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024/ ...East TX/LA/southern AR through tonight... Elevated convection has already formed over north central TX this morning in a band of ascent preceding a midlevel shortwave trough moving eastward. New thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon farther to the south and east across east/southeast TX, as the warm sector spreads northward in advance of a weak surface cyclone. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s beneath midlevel lapse rates near 8 C/km will drive MLCAPE ranging from 500 J/kg a little south of I-20 to 1500-2000 J/kg across southeast TX by late afternoon, where surface-based storms are likely with small breaks in the stratus. Vertical shear profiles will be characterized by sufficiently long hodographs (effective bulk shear in excess of 45 kt) and low-level hodograph curvature (effective SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2) for supercells. The initial storms will be more cellular across southeast TX with a gradual transition to a mixed mode/band of storms this evening into tonight as the storms spread eastward/northeastward across LA/southern AR. The surface-based supercells in southeast TX will be capable of producing tornadoes from early afternoon into late evening (including a strong/EF2+ tornado or two), along with isolated large hail (1-1.75 inches in diameter). With the gradual change in storms to a more linear mode, the potential for wind damage (and embedded tornadoes) will persist into tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes, including a strong (potentially EF2+) tornado or two, will be possible this afternoon/evening across southeast Texas. Damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.75" in diameter will also be possible from east Texas this afternoon into Louisiana, southern Arkansas and far west central Mississippi overnight. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities in parts of central Texas have been adjusted to account for the progression of ongoing convection. Quasi-discrete supercells continue in parts of southeast Texas as well as to the northwest of Houston. These storms will continue to post the greatest threat for tornadoes (potentially strong). See MCD 2284 and 2285 for additional short-term, mesoscale details. ..Wendt.. 12/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024/ ...East TX/LA/southern AR through tonight... Elevated convection has already formed over north central TX this morning in a band of ascent preceding a midlevel shortwave trough moving eastward. New thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon farther to the south and east across east/southeast TX, as the warm sector spreads northward in advance of a weak surface cyclone. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s beneath midlevel lapse rates near 8 C/km will drive MLCAPE ranging from 500 J/kg a little south of I-20 to 1500-2000 J/kg across southeast TX by late afternoon, where surface-based storms are likely with small breaks in the stratus. Vertical shear profiles will be characterized by sufficiently long hodographs (effective bulk shear in excess of 45 kt) and low-level hodograph curvature (effective SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2) for supercells. The initial storms will be more cellular across southeast TX with a gradual transition to a mixed mode/band of storms this evening into tonight as the storms spread eastward/northeastward across LA/southern AR. The surface-based supercells in southeast TX will be capable of producing tornadoes from early afternoon into late evening (including a strong/EF2+ tornado or two), along with isolated large hail (1-1.75 inches in diameter). With the gradual change in storms to a more linear mode, the potential for wind damage (and embedded tornadoes) will persist into tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes, including a strong (potentially EF2+) tornado or two, will be possible this afternoon/evening across southeast Texas. Damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.75" in diameter will also be possible from east Texas this afternoon into Louisiana, southern Arkansas and far west central Mississippi overnight. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities in parts of central Texas have been adjusted to account for the progression of ongoing convection. Quasi-discrete supercells continue in parts of southeast Texas as well as to the northwest of Houston. These storms will continue to post the greatest threat for tornadoes (potentially strong). See MCD 2284 and 2285 for additional short-term, mesoscale details. ..Wendt.. 12/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024/ ...East TX/LA/southern AR through tonight... Elevated convection has already formed over north central TX this morning in a band of ascent preceding a midlevel shortwave trough moving eastward. New thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon farther to the south and east across east/southeast TX, as the warm sector spreads northward in advance of a weak surface cyclone. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s beneath midlevel lapse rates near 8 C/km will drive MLCAPE ranging from 500 J/kg a little south of I-20 to 1500-2000 J/kg across southeast TX by late afternoon, where surface-based storms are likely with small breaks in the stratus. Vertical shear profiles will be characterized by sufficiently long hodographs (effective bulk shear in excess of 45 kt) and low-level hodograph curvature (effective SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2) for supercells. The initial storms will be more cellular across southeast TX with a gradual transition to a mixed mode/band of storms this evening into tonight as the storms spread eastward/northeastward across LA/southern AR. The surface-based supercells in southeast TX will be capable of producing tornadoes from early afternoon into late evening (including a strong/EF2+ tornado or two), along with isolated large hail (1-1.75 inches in diameter). With the gradual change in storms to a more linear mode, the potential for wind damage (and embedded tornadoes) will persist into tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes, including a strong (potentially EF2+) tornado or two, will be possible this afternoon/evening across southeast Texas. Damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.75" in diameter will also be possible from east Texas this afternoon into Louisiana, southern Arkansas and far west central Mississippi overnight. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities in parts of central Texas have been adjusted to account for the progression of ongoing convection. Quasi-discrete supercells continue in parts of southeast Texas as well as to the northwest of Houston. These storms will continue to post the greatest threat for tornadoes (potentially strong). See MCD 2284 and 2285 for additional short-term, mesoscale details. ..Wendt.. 12/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024/ ...East TX/LA/southern AR through tonight... Elevated convection has already formed over north central TX this morning in a band of ascent preceding a midlevel shortwave trough moving eastward. New thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon farther to the south and east across east/southeast TX, as the warm sector spreads northward in advance of a weak surface cyclone. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s beneath midlevel lapse rates near 8 C/km will drive MLCAPE ranging from 500 J/kg a little south of I-20 to 1500-2000 J/kg across southeast TX by late afternoon, where surface-based storms are likely with small breaks in the stratus. Vertical shear profiles will be characterized by sufficiently long hodographs (effective bulk shear in excess of 45 kt) and low-level hodograph curvature (effective SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2) for supercells. The initial storms will be more cellular across southeast TX with a gradual transition to a mixed mode/band of storms this evening into tonight as the storms spread eastward/northeastward across LA/southern AR. The surface-based supercells in southeast TX will be capable of producing tornadoes from early afternoon into late evening (including a strong/EF2+ tornado or two), along with isolated large hail (1-1.75 inches in diameter). With the gradual change in storms to a more linear mode, the potential for wind damage (and embedded tornadoes) will persist into tonight. Read more