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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST TX... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes, including a strong (potentially EF2+) tornado or two, will be possible this afternoon/evening across southeast Texas. Damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.75" in diameter will also be possible from east Texas this afternoon into Louisiana, southern Arkansas and far west central Mississippi overnight. ...East TX/LA/southern AR through tonight... Elevated convection has already formed over north central TX this morning in a band of ascent preceding a midlevel shortwave trough moving eastward. New thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon farther to the south and east across east/southeast TX, as the warm sector spreads northward in advance of a weak surface cyclone. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s beneath midlevel lapse rates near 8 C/km will drive MLCAPE ranging from 500 J/kg a little south of I-20 to 1500-2000 J/kg across southeast TX by late afternoon, where surface-based storms are likely with small breaks in the stratus. Vertical shear profiles will be characterized by sufficiently long hodographs (effective bulk shear in excess of 45 kt) and low-level hodograph curvature (effective SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2) for supercells. The initial storms will be more cellular across southeast TX with a gradual transition to a mixed mode/band of storms this evening into tonight as the storms spread eastward/northeastward across LA/southern AR. The surface-based supercells in southeast TX will be capable of producing tornadoes from early afternoon into late evening (including a strong/EF2+ tornado or two), along with isolated large hail (1-1.75 inches in diameter). With the gradual change in storms to a more linear mode, the potential for wind damage (and embedded tornadoes) will persist into tonight. ..Thompson/Moore.. 12/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST TX... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes, including a strong (potentially EF2+) tornado or two, will be possible this afternoon/evening across southeast Texas. Damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.75" in diameter will also be possible from east Texas this afternoon into Louisiana, southern Arkansas and far west central Mississippi overnight. ...East TX/LA/southern AR through tonight... Elevated convection has already formed over north central TX this morning in a band of ascent preceding a midlevel shortwave trough moving eastward. New thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon farther to the south and east across east/southeast TX, as the warm sector spreads northward in advance of a weak surface cyclone. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s beneath midlevel lapse rates near 8 C/km will drive MLCAPE ranging from 500 J/kg a little south of I-20 to 1500-2000 J/kg across southeast TX by late afternoon, where surface-based storms are likely with small breaks in the stratus. Vertical shear profiles will be characterized by sufficiently long hodographs (effective bulk shear in excess of 45 kt) and low-level hodograph curvature (effective SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2) for supercells. The initial storms will be more cellular across southeast TX with a gradual transition to a mixed mode/band of storms this evening into tonight as the storms spread eastward/northeastward across LA/southern AR. The surface-based supercells in southeast TX will be capable of producing tornadoes from early afternoon into late evening (including a strong/EF2+ tornado or two), along with isolated large hail (1-1.75 inches in diameter). With the gradual change in storms to a more linear mode, the potential for wind damage (and embedded tornadoes) will persist into tonight. ..Thompson/Moore.. 12/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST TX... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes, including a strong (potentially EF2+) tornado or two, will be possible this afternoon/evening across southeast Texas. Damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.75" in diameter will also be possible from east Texas this afternoon into Louisiana, southern Arkansas and far west central Mississippi overnight. ...East TX/LA/southern AR through tonight... Elevated convection has already formed over north central TX this morning in a band of ascent preceding a midlevel shortwave trough moving eastward. New thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon farther to the south and east across east/southeast TX, as the warm sector spreads northward in advance of a weak surface cyclone. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s beneath midlevel lapse rates near 8 C/km will drive MLCAPE ranging from 500 J/kg a little south of I-20 to 1500-2000 J/kg across southeast TX by late afternoon, where surface-based storms are likely with small breaks in the stratus. Vertical shear profiles will be characterized by sufficiently long hodographs (effective bulk shear in excess of 45 kt) and low-level hodograph curvature (effective SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2) for supercells. The initial storms will be more cellular across southeast TX with a gradual transition to a mixed mode/band of storms this evening into tonight as the storms spread eastward/northeastward across LA/southern AR. The surface-based supercells in southeast TX will be capable of producing tornadoes from early afternoon into late evening (including a strong/EF2+ tornado or two), along with isolated large hail (1-1.75 inches in diameter). With the gradual change in storms to a more linear mode, the potential for wind damage (and embedded tornadoes) will persist into tonight. ..Thompson/Moore.. 12/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST TX... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes, including a strong (potentially EF2+) tornado or two, will be possible this afternoon/evening across southeast Texas. Damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.75" in diameter will also be possible from east Texas this afternoon into Louisiana, southern Arkansas and far west central Mississippi overnight. ...East TX/LA/southern AR through tonight... Elevated convection has already formed over north central TX this morning in a band of ascent preceding a midlevel shortwave trough moving eastward. New thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon farther to the south and east across east/southeast TX, as the warm sector spreads northward in advance of a weak surface cyclone. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s beneath midlevel lapse rates near 8 C/km will drive MLCAPE ranging from 500 J/kg a little south of I-20 to 1500-2000 J/kg across southeast TX by late afternoon, where surface-based storms are likely with small breaks in the stratus. Vertical shear profiles will be characterized by sufficiently long hodographs (effective bulk shear in excess of 45 kt) and low-level hodograph curvature (effective SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2) for supercells. The initial storms will be more cellular across southeast TX with a gradual transition to a mixed mode/band of storms this evening into tonight as the storms spread eastward/northeastward across LA/southern AR. The surface-based supercells in southeast TX will be capable of producing tornadoes from early afternoon into late evening (including a strong/EF2+ tornado or two), along with isolated large hail (1-1.75 inches in diameter). With the gradual change in storms to a more linear mode, the potential for wind damage (and embedded tornadoes) will persist into tonight. ..Thompson/Moore.. 12/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST TX... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes, including a strong (potentially EF2+) tornado or two, will be possible this afternoon/evening across southeast Texas. Damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.75" in diameter will also be possible from east Texas this afternoon into Louisiana, southern Arkansas and far west central Mississippi overnight. ...East TX/LA/southern AR through tonight... Elevated convection has already formed over north central TX this morning in a band of ascent preceding a midlevel shortwave trough moving eastward. New thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon farther to the south and east across east/southeast TX, as the warm sector spreads northward in advance of a weak surface cyclone. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s beneath midlevel lapse rates near 8 C/km will drive MLCAPE ranging from 500 J/kg a little south of I-20 to 1500-2000 J/kg across southeast TX by late afternoon, where surface-based storms are likely with small breaks in the stratus. Vertical shear profiles will be characterized by sufficiently long hodographs (effective bulk shear in excess of 45 kt) and low-level hodograph curvature (effective SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2) for supercells. The initial storms will be more cellular across southeast TX with a gradual transition to a mixed mode/band of storms this evening into tonight as the storms spread eastward/northeastward across LA/southern AR. The surface-based supercells in southeast TX will be capable of producing tornadoes from early afternoon into late evening (including a strong/EF2+ tornado or two), along with isolated large hail (1-1.75 inches in diameter). With the gradual change in storms to a more linear mode, the potential for wind damage (and embedded tornadoes) will persist into tonight. ..Thompson/Moore.. 12/26/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a midlevel shortwave trough advancing eastward across the southern Plains, a dry/breezy post-frontal air mass will develop across portions of west/central TX this afternoon. However, a limited spatial overlap of the breezy winds and low RH should temper fire-weather concerns -- especially given marginal fuels. Farther west, broad west-northwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the CA coast on the backside of a broad large-scale trough. This may promote locally dry/breezy offshore flow across portions of southwest CA. Any elevated fire-weather concerns should remain fairly localized to the wind-prone mountains/valleys. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a midlevel shortwave trough advancing eastward across the southern Plains, a dry/breezy post-frontal air mass will develop across portions of west/central TX this afternoon. However, a limited spatial overlap of the breezy winds and low RH should temper fire-weather concerns -- especially given marginal fuels. Farther west, broad west-northwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the CA coast on the backside of a broad large-scale trough. This may promote locally dry/breezy offshore flow across portions of southwest CA. Any elevated fire-weather concerns should remain fairly localized to the wind-prone mountains/valleys. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a midlevel shortwave trough advancing eastward across the southern Plains, a dry/breezy post-frontal air mass will develop across portions of west/central TX this afternoon. However, a limited spatial overlap of the breezy winds and low RH should temper fire-weather concerns -- especially given marginal fuels. Farther west, broad west-northwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the CA coast on the backside of a broad large-scale trough. This may promote locally dry/breezy offshore flow across portions of southwest CA. Any elevated fire-weather concerns should remain fairly localized to the wind-prone mountains/valleys. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a midlevel shortwave trough advancing eastward across the southern Plains, a dry/breezy post-frontal air mass will develop across portions of west/central TX this afternoon. However, a limited spatial overlap of the breezy winds and low RH should temper fire-weather concerns -- especially given marginal fuels. Farther west, broad west-northwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the CA coast on the backside of a broad large-scale trough. This may promote locally dry/breezy offshore flow across portions of southwest CA. Any elevated fire-weather concerns should remain fairly localized to the wind-prone mountains/valleys. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a midlevel shortwave trough advancing eastward across the southern Plains, a dry/breezy post-frontal air mass will develop across portions of west/central TX this afternoon. However, a limited spatial overlap of the breezy winds and low RH should temper fire-weather concerns -- especially given marginal fuels. Farther west, broad west-northwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the CA coast on the backside of a broad large-scale trough. This may promote locally dry/breezy offshore flow across portions of southwest CA. Any elevated fire-weather concerns should remain fairly localized to the wind-prone mountains/valleys. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a midlevel shortwave trough advancing eastward across the southern Plains, a dry/breezy post-frontal air mass will develop across portions of west/central TX this afternoon. However, a limited spatial overlap of the breezy winds and low RH should temper fire-weather concerns -- especially given marginal fuels. Farther west, broad west-northwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the CA coast on the backside of a broad large-scale trough. This may promote locally dry/breezy offshore flow across portions of southwest CA. Any elevated fire-weather concerns should remain fairly localized to the wind-prone mountains/valleys. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a midlevel shortwave trough advancing eastward across the southern Plains, a dry/breezy post-frontal air mass will develop across portions of west/central TX this afternoon. However, a limited spatial overlap of the breezy winds and low RH should temper fire-weather concerns -- especially given marginal fuels. Farther west, broad west-northwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the CA coast on the backside of a broad large-scale trough. This may promote locally dry/breezy offshore flow across portions of southwest CA. Any elevated fire-weather concerns should remain fairly localized to the wind-prone mountains/valleys. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a midlevel shortwave trough advancing eastward across the southern Plains, a dry/breezy post-frontal air mass will develop across portions of west/central TX this afternoon. However, a limited spatial overlap of the breezy winds and low RH should temper fire-weather concerns -- especially given marginal fuels. Farther west, broad west-northwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the CA coast on the backside of a broad large-scale trough. This may promote locally dry/breezy offshore flow across portions of southwest CA. Any elevated fire-weather concerns should remain fairly localized to the wind-prone mountains/valleys. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a midlevel shortwave trough advancing eastward across the southern Plains, a dry/breezy post-frontal air mass will develop across portions of west/central TX this afternoon. However, a limited spatial overlap of the breezy winds and low RH should temper fire-weather concerns -- especially given marginal fuels. Farther west, broad west-northwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the CA coast on the backside of a broad large-scale trough. This may promote locally dry/breezy offshore flow across portions of southwest CA. Any elevated fire-weather concerns should remain fairly localized to the wind-prone mountains/valleys. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a midlevel shortwave trough advancing eastward across the southern Plains, a dry/breezy post-frontal air mass will develop across portions of west/central TX this afternoon. However, a limited spatial overlap of the breezy winds and low RH should temper fire-weather concerns -- especially given marginal fuels. Farther west, broad west-northwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the CA coast on the backside of a broad large-scale trough. This may promote locally dry/breezy offshore flow across portions of southwest CA. Any elevated fire-weather concerns should remain fairly localized to the wind-prone mountains/valleys. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a midlevel shortwave trough advancing eastward across the southern Plains, a dry/breezy post-frontal air mass will develop across portions of west/central TX this afternoon. However, a limited spatial overlap of the breezy winds and low RH should temper fire-weather concerns -- especially given marginal fuels. Farther west, broad west-northwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the CA coast on the backside of a broad large-scale trough. This may promote locally dry/breezy offshore flow across portions of southwest CA. Any elevated fire-weather concerns should remain fairly localized to the wind-prone mountains/valleys. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a midlevel shortwave trough advancing eastward across the southern Plains, a dry/breezy post-frontal air mass will develop across portions of west/central TX this afternoon. However, a limited spatial overlap of the breezy winds and low RH should temper fire-weather concerns -- especially given marginal fuels. Farther west, broad west-northwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the CA coast on the backside of a broad large-scale trough. This may promote locally dry/breezy offshore flow across portions of southwest CA. Any elevated fire-weather concerns should remain fairly localized to the wind-prone mountains/valleys. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a midlevel shortwave trough advancing eastward across the southern Plains, a dry/breezy post-frontal air mass will develop across portions of west/central TX this afternoon. However, a limited spatial overlap of the breezy winds and low RH should temper fire-weather concerns -- especially given marginal fuels. Farther west, broad west-northwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the CA coast on the backside of a broad large-scale trough. This may promote locally dry/breezy offshore flow across portions of southwest CA. Any elevated fire-weather concerns should remain fairly localized to the wind-prone mountains/valleys. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a midlevel shortwave trough advancing eastward across the southern Plains, a dry/breezy post-frontal air mass will develop across portions of west/central TX this afternoon. However, a limited spatial overlap of the breezy winds and low RH should temper fire-weather concerns -- especially given marginal fuels. Farther west, broad west-northwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the CA coast on the backside of a broad large-scale trough. This may promote locally dry/breezy offshore flow across portions of southwest CA. Any elevated fire-weather concerns should remain fairly localized to the wind-prone mountains/valleys. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY SOUTHEAST AND EAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards are possible this afternoon and evening from the southern Plains eastward into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex and Lower Mississippi Valley... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a relatively compact but potent mid-level shortwave trough over west/northwest TX, and this feature will move east to the Ark-La-Tex by late evening before reaching western TN/northern MS by early Friday morning. In the low levels, a weak surface low will consolidate over northeast TX by late afternoon/early evening before moving into northern AR late overnight. A warm frontal zone will advance northward across much of east TX and western LA with lower 60s dewpoints near the I-20 corridor and mid 60s over the coastal plain (locally mid-upper 60s in upper coast of TX). Considerable cloud cover will likely limit the overall magnitude of destabilization today. In relative agreement with previous forecast thinking, convective development should begin mid-late morning over north TX and subsequently southward along the I-35 corridor. Weak capping will erode such as scattered to numerous storms will likely develop during afternoon near the low/frontal zone and in the warm sector near and west of the Sabine River. Forecast soundings show enlarged hodographs with sufficient buoyancy for rotating storms capable of all hazards, primarily this afternoon into the early evening. The aforementioned expanding thunderstorm coverage and linear evolution will lessen the hail risk towards evening. Concurrently, this should favor more of a scattered damaging wind/isolated risk for a tornado into the evening, gradually lowering into the overnight as buoyancy lessens. ..Smith/Grams.. 12/26/2024 Read more