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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough will pivot east/northeast across the Midwest to the Northeast on Tuesday. A surface low will track in tandem with the upper trough/low, with an attendant cold front sweeping east across the MS/OH Valleys through evening. A dearth of boundary-layer moisture will preclude much instability, except for some modest dewpoints (mainly 40s to low 50s F) across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolina coasts. As ascent increases with the approach of the surface cold front and upper trough during the evening, a couple of lightning flashes will be possible from the upper OH Valley to the DelMarVa and coastal NC given very weak MUCAPE (less than 150 J/kg). Overall, thunderstorm potential is expected to remain very low, precluding a general thunderstorm delineation. ..Leitman.. 12/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough will pivot east/northeast across the Midwest to the Northeast on Tuesday. A surface low will track in tandem with the upper trough/low, with an attendant cold front sweeping east across the MS/OH Valleys through evening. A dearth of boundary-layer moisture will preclude much instability, except for some modest dewpoints (mainly 40s to low 50s F) across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolina coasts. As ascent increases with the approach of the surface cold front and upper trough during the evening, a couple of lightning flashes will be possible from the upper OH Valley to the DelMarVa and coastal NC given very weak MUCAPE (less than 150 J/kg). Overall, thunderstorm potential is expected to remain very low, precluding a general thunderstorm delineation. ..Leitman.. 12/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough will pivot east/northeast across the Midwest to the Northeast on Tuesday. A surface low will track in tandem with the upper trough/low, with an attendant cold front sweeping east across the MS/OH Valleys through evening. A dearth of boundary-layer moisture will preclude much instability, except for some modest dewpoints (mainly 40s to low 50s F) across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolina coasts. As ascent increases with the approach of the surface cold front and upper trough during the evening, a couple of lightning flashes will be possible from the upper OH Valley to the DelMarVa and coastal NC given very weak MUCAPE (less than 150 J/kg). Overall, thunderstorm potential is expected to remain very low, precluding a general thunderstorm delineation. ..Leitman.. 12/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough will pivot east/northeast across the Midwest to the Northeast on Tuesday. A surface low will track in tandem with the upper trough/low, with an attendant cold front sweeping east across the MS/OH Valleys through evening. A dearth of boundary-layer moisture will preclude much instability, except for some modest dewpoints (mainly 40s to low 50s F) across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolina coasts. As ascent increases with the approach of the surface cold front and upper trough during the evening, a couple of lightning flashes will be possible from the upper OH Valley to the DelMarVa and coastal NC given very weak MUCAPE (less than 150 J/kg). Overall, thunderstorm potential is expected to remain very low, precluding a general thunderstorm delineation. ..Leitman.. 12/29/2024 Read more

WW 0726 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 726 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S CRE TO 25 E FAY. ..HART..12/29/24 ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 726 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC017-019-047-101-129-141-163-191-291940- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLADEN BRUNSWICK COLUMBUS JOHNSTON NEW HANOVER PENDER SAMPSON WAYNE AMZ250-252-254-291940- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0726 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 726 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S CRE TO 25 E FAY. ..HART..12/29/24 ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 726 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC017-019-047-101-129-141-163-191-291940- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLADEN BRUNSWICK COLUMBUS JOHNSTON NEW HANOVER PENDER SAMPSON WAYNE AMZ250-252-254-291940- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 726 SEVERE TSTM NC SC CW 291445Z - 292200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 726 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 945 AM EST Sun Dec 29 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central North Carolina Eastern South Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday morning and afternoon from 945 AM until 500 PM EST. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A fast-moving line of showers and occasional thunderstorms will produce gusty winds and occasional damaging gusts through the early afternoon. An isolated tornado or two is also possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north northwest of Greensboro NC to 50 miles south southeast of Myrtle Beach SC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 724...WW 725... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24040. ...Hart Read more

MD 2320 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 725... FOR PARTS OF NORTH FL
Mesoscale Discussion 2320 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1047 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 Areas affected...Parts of north FL Concerning...Tornado Watch 725... Valid 291647Z - 291815Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 725 continues. SUMMARY...Some threat for locally damaging gusts and a brief tornado may persist into early afternoon. DISCUSSION...The southern portion of a long-lived QLCS is moving through north FL late this morning. While this portion of the QLCS has not been very intense, modest downstream diurnal heating/destabilization (with MLCAPE near/above 500 J/kg) could result in some uptick in convective intensity into early afternoon. The primary midlevel shortwave trough is lifting away from the region this afternoon, but low-level and deep-layer shear will remain somewhat favorable for organized convection, and locally damaging gusts remain possible if a more-organized cold pool can develop. A brief tornado also cannot be ruled out, especially near the intersection of southward-moving outflow and the more north-south oriented portion of the line across northeast FL. ..Dean.. 12/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 30378209 30558154 30328108 29688104 29318165 29188211 29168264 29238294 29658259 30378209 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE BIG BEND... Based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance, the Elevated area was expanded north along the Front Range and farther east on the Plains, and the Critical area was expanded slightly as well. While temperatures will be in the 40s along the Front Range, wind gusts of 40-65 mph and dry fine fuels will compensate leading to elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. The Elevated area was expanded eastward on the Texas Rolling Plains and Hill Country as winds strengthen and RH lowers behind the dryline. Additionally, a small Elevated area was added for portions of the Transverse Ranges in southern California due to sufficient northerly/offshore pressure gradients with gusty winds (25-45 mph) and lowering RH (15-30%) developing late overnight and early morning. This will mark the beginning of a Santa Ana wind event. ..Nauslar.. 12/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... Enhanced westerly flow aloft will overspread the central/southern Rockies through the base of a mid-level shortwave moving across the central/southern Plains on D2/Monday. Resulting surface cyclogenesis and strengthening lee troughing will lead to an increase in westerly surface winds across portions of the southern High Plains. This will support a broad region of Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns across areas from southeastern Colorado to the Oklahoma Panhandle and into New Mexico and Texas. ...Eastern New Mexico, Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle, Western Texas... Warm/dry/gusty westerly downslope flow is expected across eastern New Mexico into western Texas/Oklahoma Monday. Afternoon relative-humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent (driest across portions of western Texas) will overlap surface winds sustained around 20-25 mph. Fuels within this region have seen drying over the last several days. While latest fuel guidance suggests 100-hr fuels are largely marginal, the extended period of critical winds and relative humidity should lead to further drying (especially of fine fuels), supporting risk for fire spread. The previous D3 70 percent was converted to a Critical area to support this risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE BIG BEND... Based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance, the Elevated area was expanded north along the Front Range and farther east on the Plains, and the Critical area was expanded slightly as well. While temperatures will be in the 40s along the Front Range, wind gusts of 40-65 mph and dry fine fuels will compensate leading to elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. The Elevated area was expanded eastward on the Texas Rolling Plains and Hill Country as winds strengthen and RH lowers behind the dryline. Additionally, a small Elevated area was added for portions of the Transverse Ranges in southern California due to sufficient northerly/offshore pressure gradients with gusty winds (25-45 mph) and lowering RH (15-30%) developing late overnight and early morning. This will mark the beginning of a Santa Ana wind event. ..Nauslar.. 12/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... Enhanced westerly flow aloft will overspread the central/southern Rockies through the base of a mid-level shortwave moving across the central/southern Plains on D2/Monday. Resulting surface cyclogenesis and strengthening lee troughing will lead to an increase in westerly surface winds across portions of the southern High Plains. This will support a broad region of Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns across areas from southeastern Colorado to the Oklahoma Panhandle and into New Mexico and Texas. ...Eastern New Mexico, Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle, Western Texas... Warm/dry/gusty westerly downslope flow is expected across eastern New Mexico into western Texas/Oklahoma Monday. Afternoon relative-humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent (driest across portions of western Texas) will overlap surface winds sustained around 20-25 mph. Fuels within this region have seen drying over the last several days. While latest fuel guidance suggests 100-hr fuels are largely marginal, the extended period of critical winds and relative humidity should lead to further drying (especially of fine fuels), supporting risk for fire spread. The previous D3 70 percent was converted to a Critical area to support this risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE BIG BEND... Based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance, the Elevated area was expanded north along the Front Range and farther east on the Plains, and the Critical area was expanded slightly as well. While temperatures will be in the 40s along the Front Range, wind gusts of 40-65 mph and dry fine fuels will compensate leading to elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. The Elevated area was expanded eastward on the Texas Rolling Plains and Hill Country as winds strengthen and RH lowers behind the dryline. Additionally, a small Elevated area was added for portions of the Transverse Ranges in southern California due to sufficient northerly/offshore pressure gradients with gusty winds (25-45 mph) and lowering RH (15-30%) developing late overnight and early morning. This will mark the beginning of a Santa Ana wind event. ..Nauslar.. 12/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... Enhanced westerly flow aloft will overspread the central/southern Rockies through the base of a mid-level shortwave moving across the central/southern Plains on D2/Monday. Resulting surface cyclogenesis and strengthening lee troughing will lead to an increase in westerly surface winds across portions of the southern High Plains. This will support a broad region of Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns across areas from southeastern Colorado to the Oklahoma Panhandle and into New Mexico and Texas. ...Eastern New Mexico, Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle, Western Texas... Warm/dry/gusty westerly downslope flow is expected across eastern New Mexico into western Texas/Oklahoma Monday. Afternoon relative-humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent (driest across portions of western Texas) will overlap surface winds sustained around 20-25 mph. Fuels within this region have seen drying over the last several days. While latest fuel guidance suggests 100-hr fuels are largely marginal, the extended period of critical winds and relative humidity should lead to further drying (especially of fine fuels), supporting risk for fire spread. The previous D3 70 percent was converted to a Critical area to support this risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE BIG BEND... Based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance, the Elevated area was expanded north along the Front Range and farther east on the Plains, and the Critical area was expanded slightly as well. While temperatures will be in the 40s along the Front Range, wind gusts of 40-65 mph and dry fine fuels will compensate leading to elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. The Elevated area was expanded eastward on the Texas Rolling Plains and Hill Country as winds strengthen and RH lowers behind the dryline. Additionally, a small Elevated area was added for portions of the Transverse Ranges in southern California due to sufficient northerly/offshore pressure gradients with gusty winds (25-45 mph) and lowering RH (15-30%) developing late overnight and early morning. This will mark the beginning of a Santa Ana wind event. ..Nauslar.. 12/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... Enhanced westerly flow aloft will overspread the central/southern Rockies through the base of a mid-level shortwave moving across the central/southern Plains on D2/Monday. Resulting surface cyclogenesis and strengthening lee troughing will lead to an increase in westerly surface winds across portions of the southern High Plains. This will support a broad region of Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns across areas from southeastern Colorado to the Oklahoma Panhandle and into New Mexico and Texas. ...Eastern New Mexico, Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle, Western Texas... Warm/dry/gusty westerly downslope flow is expected across eastern New Mexico into western Texas/Oklahoma Monday. Afternoon relative-humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent (driest across portions of western Texas) will overlap surface winds sustained around 20-25 mph. Fuels within this region have seen drying over the last several days. While latest fuel guidance suggests 100-hr fuels are largely marginal, the extended period of critical winds and relative humidity should lead to further drying (especially of fine fuels), supporting risk for fire spread. The previous D3 70 percent was converted to a Critical area to support this risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE BIG BEND... Based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance, the Elevated area was expanded north along the Front Range and farther east on the Plains, and the Critical area was expanded slightly as well. While temperatures will be in the 40s along the Front Range, wind gusts of 40-65 mph and dry fine fuels will compensate leading to elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. The Elevated area was expanded eastward on the Texas Rolling Plains and Hill Country as winds strengthen and RH lowers behind the dryline. Additionally, a small Elevated area was added for portions of the Transverse Ranges in southern California due to sufficient northerly/offshore pressure gradients with gusty winds (25-45 mph) and lowering RH (15-30%) developing late overnight and early morning. This will mark the beginning of a Santa Ana wind event. ..Nauslar.. 12/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... Enhanced westerly flow aloft will overspread the central/southern Rockies through the base of a mid-level shortwave moving across the central/southern Plains on D2/Monday. Resulting surface cyclogenesis and strengthening lee troughing will lead to an increase in westerly surface winds across portions of the southern High Plains. This will support a broad region of Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns across areas from southeastern Colorado to the Oklahoma Panhandle and into New Mexico and Texas. ...Eastern New Mexico, Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle, Western Texas... Warm/dry/gusty westerly downslope flow is expected across eastern New Mexico into western Texas/Oklahoma Monday. Afternoon relative-humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent (driest across portions of western Texas) will overlap surface winds sustained around 20-25 mph. Fuels within this region have seen drying over the last several days. While latest fuel guidance suggests 100-hr fuels are largely marginal, the extended period of critical winds and relative humidity should lead to further drying (especially of fine fuels), supporting risk for fire spread. The previous D3 70 percent was converted to a Critical area to support this risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE BIG BEND... Based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance, the Elevated area was expanded north along the Front Range and farther east on the Plains, and the Critical area was expanded slightly as well. While temperatures will be in the 40s along the Front Range, wind gusts of 40-65 mph and dry fine fuels will compensate leading to elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. The Elevated area was expanded eastward on the Texas Rolling Plains and Hill Country as winds strengthen and RH lowers behind the dryline. Additionally, a small Elevated area was added for portions of the Transverse Ranges in southern California due to sufficient northerly/offshore pressure gradients with gusty winds (25-45 mph) and lowering RH (15-30%) developing late overnight and early morning. This will mark the beginning of a Santa Ana wind event. ..Nauslar.. 12/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... Enhanced westerly flow aloft will overspread the central/southern Rockies through the base of a mid-level shortwave moving across the central/southern Plains on D2/Monday. Resulting surface cyclogenesis and strengthening lee troughing will lead to an increase in westerly surface winds across portions of the southern High Plains. This will support a broad region of Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns across areas from southeastern Colorado to the Oklahoma Panhandle and into New Mexico and Texas. ...Eastern New Mexico, Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle, Western Texas... Warm/dry/gusty westerly downslope flow is expected across eastern New Mexico into western Texas/Oklahoma Monday. Afternoon relative-humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent (driest across portions of western Texas) will overlap surface winds sustained around 20-25 mph. Fuels within this region have seen drying over the last several days. While latest fuel guidance suggests 100-hr fuels are largely marginal, the extended period of critical winds and relative humidity should lead to further drying (especially of fine fuels), supporting risk for fire spread. The previous D3 70 percent was converted to a Critical area to support this risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE BIG BEND... Based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance, the Elevated area was expanded north along the Front Range and farther east on the Plains, and the Critical area was expanded slightly as well. While temperatures will be in the 40s along the Front Range, wind gusts of 40-65 mph and dry fine fuels will compensate leading to elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. The Elevated area was expanded eastward on the Texas Rolling Plains and Hill Country as winds strengthen and RH lowers behind the dryline. Additionally, a small Elevated area was added for portions of the Transverse Ranges in southern California due to sufficient northerly/offshore pressure gradients with gusty winds (25-45 mph) and lowering RH (15-30%) developing late overnight and early morning. This will mark the beginning of a Santa Ana wind event. ..Nauslar.. 12/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... Enhanced westerly flow aloft will overspread the central/southern Rockies through the base of a mid-level shortwave moving across the central/southern Plains on D2/Monday. Resulting surface cyclogenesis and strengthening lee troughing will lead to an increase in westerly surface winds across portions of the southern High Plains. This will support a broad region of Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns across areas from southeastern Colorado to the Oklahoma Panhandle and into New Mexico and Texas. ...Eastern New Mexico, Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle, Western Texas... Warm/dry/gusty westerly downslope flow is expected across eastern New Mexico into western Texas/Oklahoma Monday. Afternoon relative-humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent (driest across portions of western Texas) will overlap surface winds sustained around 20-25 mph. Fuels within this region have seen drying over the last several days. While latest fuel guidance suggests 100-hr fuels are largely marginal, the extended period of critical winds and relative humidity should lead to further drying (especially of fine fuels), supporting risk for fire spread. The previous D3 70 percent was converted to a Critical area to support this risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE BIG BEND... Based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance, the Elevated area was expanded north along the Front Range and farther east on the Plains, and the Critical area was expanded slightly as well. While temperatures will be in the 40s along the Front Range, wind gusts of 40-65 mph and dry fine fuels will compensate leading to elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. The Elevated area was expanded eastward on the Texas Rolling Plains and Hill Country as winds strengthen and RH lowers behind the dryline. Additionally, a small Elevated area was added for portions of the Transverse Ranges in southern California due to sufficient northerly/offshore pressure gradients with gusty winds (25-45 mph) and lowering RH (15-30%) developing late overnight and early morning. This will mark the beginning of a Santa Ana wind event. ..Nauslar.. 12/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... Enhanced westerly flow aloft will overspread the central/southern Rockies through the base of a mid-level shortwave moving across the central/southern Plains on D2/Monday. Resulting surface cyclogenesis and strengthening lee troughing will lead to an increase in westerly surface winds across portions of the southern High Plains. This will support a broad region of Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns across areas from southeastern Colorado to the Oklahoma Panhandle and into New Mexico and Texas. ...Eastern New Mexico, Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle, Western Texas... Warm/dry/gusty westerly downslope flow is expected across eastern New Mexico into western Texas/Oklahoma Monday. Afternoon relative-humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent (driest across portions of western Texas) will overlap surface winds sustained around 20-25 mph. Fuels within this region have seen drying over the last several days. While latest fuel guidance suggests 100-hr fuels are largely marginal, the extended period of critical winds and relative humidity should lead to further drying (especially of fine fuels), supporting risk for fire spread. The previous D3 70 percent was converted to a Critical area to support this risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE BIG BEND... Based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance, the Elevated area was expanded north along the Front Range and farther east on the Plains, and the Critical area was expanded slightly as well. While temperatures will be in the 40s along the Front Range, wind gusts of 40-65 mph and dry fine fuels will compensate leading to elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. The Elevated area was expanded eastward on the Texas Rolling Plains and Hill Country as winds strengthen and RH lowers behind the dryline. Additionally, a small Elevated area was added for portions of the Transverse Ranges in southern California due to sufficient northerly/offshore pressure gradients with gusty winds (25-45 mph) and lowering RH (15-30%) developing late overnight and early morning. This will mark the beginning of a Santa Ana wind event. ..Nauslar.. 12/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... Enhanced westerly flow aloft will overspread the central/southern Rockies through the base of a mid-level shortwave moving across the central/southern Plains on D2/Monday. Resulting surface cyclogenesis and strengthening lee troughing will lead to an increase in westerly surface winds across portions of the southern High Plains. This will support a broad region of Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns across areas from southeastern Colorado to the Oklahoma Panhandle and into New Mexico and Texas. ...Eastern New Mexico, Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle, Western Texas... Warm/dry/gusty westerly downslope flow is expected across eastern New Mexico into western Texas/Oklahoma Monday. Afternoon relative-humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent (driest across portions of western Texas) will overlap surface winds sustained around 20-25 mph. Fuels within this region have seen drying over the last several days. While latest fuel guidance suggests 100-hr fuels are largely marginal, the extended period of critical winds and relative humidity should lead to further drying (especially of fine fuels), supporting risk for fire spread. The previous D3 70 percent was converted to a Critical area to support this risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE BIG BEND... Based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance, the Elevated area was expanded north along the Front Range and farther east on the Plains, and the Critical area was expanded slightly as well. While temperatures will be in the 40s along the Front Range, wind gusts of 40-65 mph and dry fine fuels will compensate leading to elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. The Elevated area was expanded eastward on the Texas Rolling Plains and Hill Country as winds strengthen and RH lowers behind the dryline. Additionally, a small Elevated area was added for portions of the Transverse Ranges in southern California due to sufficient northerly/offshore pressure gradients with gusty winds (25-45 mph) and lowering RH (15-30%) developing late overnight and early morning. This will mark the beginning of a Santa Ana wind event. ..Nauslar.. 12/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... Enhanced westerly flow aloft will overspread the central/southern Rockies through the base of a mid-level shortwave moving across the central/southern Plains on D2/Monday. Resulting surface cyclogenesis and strengthening lee troughing will lead to an increase in westerly surface winds across portions of the southern High Plains. This will support a broad region of Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns across areas from southeastern Colorado to the Oklahoma Panhandle and into New Mexico and Texas. ...Eastern New Mexico, Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle, Western Texas... Warm/dry/gusty westerly downslope flow is expected across eastern New Mexico into western Texas/Oklahoma Monday. Afternoon relative-humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent (driest across portions of western Texas) will overlap surface winds sustained around 20-25 mph. Fuels within this region have seen drying over the last several days. While latest fuel guidance suggests 100-hr fuels are largely marginal, the extended period of critical winds and relative humidity should lead to further drying (especially of fine fuels), supporting risk for fire spread. The previous D3 70 percent was converted to a Critical area to support this risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0725 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 725 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E GNV TO 10 SSE JAX TO 45 E JAX. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2320 ..HART..12/29/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 725 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC031-109-291840- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DUVAL ST. JOHNS AMZ452-291840- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0725 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 725 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E GNV TO 10 SSE JAX TO 45 E JAX. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2320 ..HART..12/29/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 725 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC031-109-291840- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DUVAL ST. JOHNS AMZ452-291840- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more