Aggregator

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night from the Sabine Valley vicinity into far western Georgia. ...Synopsis... A broad trough with multiple embedded mid-level vorticity maxima will become more consolidated with a 125 knot mid-level jet streak over the Lower Ohio River Valley by 12Z Thursday. At the surface, a weak low will move along a frontal zone from West Texas to the Ohio Valley and then deepen into the eastern Great Lakes between 06Z and 12Z Thursday. A broad warm sector will be in place along the Gulf Coast states and will attempt to progress inland, but extensive precipitation within a warm air advection zone from northern Louisiana to northern Georgia will stunt its northward progress. ...Southeast... There is a consistent signal among 12Z CAM guidance for a line of storms to either develop south of or emanate from an expansive area of precipitation across Louisiana tomorrow morning. There will be a period of time during the afternoon when this line of storms may have sufficient instability (amid a strongly sheared environment) to support a damaging wind threat and tornado threat, particularly with any embedded supercells). However, by late afternoon/evening this line of storms will weaken as it moves east of the better instability. An additional severe weather threat will evolve from the late afternoon into the overnight hours as the surface front surges southeast and the low-level jet strengthens. This threat will begin across eastern Louisiana. Earlier in the afternoon, winds will be veered across this region, but as the front sharpens and the low-level jet strengthens, winds are expected to back somewhat which will increase low-level convergence along the front and strengthen low-level shear. The southeastward acceleration of the surface front may eventually outrun the line of storms given the mean storm motion vector, however, 12Z guidance has indicated a greater threat for a pre-frontal band of supercells after 06Z across southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. This scenario seems reasonable given the stronger low-level jet forecast between 06Z and 12Z and also based on current (17Z) surface observations showing dewpoints 2 to 3 F greater than most guidance today. A pre-frontal band of supercells would continue the severe weather threat, including the tornado threat, through the entire overnight period. The slight risk has been expanded south and east to address this concern. ..Bentley.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night from the Sabine Valley vicinity into far western Georgia. ...Synopsis... A broad trough with multiple embedded mid-level vorticity maxima will become more consolidated with a 125 knot mid-level jet streak over the Lower Ohio River Valley by 12Z Thursday. At the surface, a weak low will move along a frontal zone from West Texas to the Ohio Valley and then deepen into the eastern Great Lakes between 06Z and 12Z Thursday. A broad warm sector will be in place along the Gulf Coast states and will attempt to progress inland, but extensive precipitation within a warm air advection zone from northern Louisiana to northern Georgia will stunt its northward progress. ...Southeast... There is a consistent signal among 12Z CAM guidance for a line of storms to either develop south of or emanate from an expansive area of precipitation across Louisiana tomorrow morning. There will be a period of time during the afternoon when this line of storms may have sufficient instability (amid a strongly sheared environment) to support a damaging wind threat and tornado threat, particularly with any embedded supercells). However, by late afternoon/evening this line of storms will weaken as it moves east of the better instability. An additional severe weather threat will evolve from the late afternoon into the overnight hours as the surface front surges southeast and the low-level jet strengthens. This threat will begin across eastern Louisiana. Earlier in the afternoon, winds will be veered across this region, but as the front sharpens and the low-level jet strengthens, winds are expected to back somewhat which will increase low-level convergence along the front and strengthen low-level shear. The southeastward acceleration of the surface front may eventually outrun the line of storms given the mean storm motion vector, however, 12Z guidance has indicated a greater threat for a pre-frontal band of supercells after 06Z across southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. This scenario seems reasonable given the stronger low-level jet forecast between 06Z and 12Z and also based on current (17Z) surface observations showing dewpoints 2 to 3 F greater than most guidance today. A pre-frontal band of supercells would continue the severe weather threat, including the tornado threat, through the entire overnight period. The slight risk has been expanded south and east to address this concern. ..Bentley.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night from the Sabine Valley vicinity into far western Georgia. ...Synopsis... A broad trough with multiple embedded mid-level vorticity maxima will become more consolidated with a 125 knot mid-level jet streak over the Lower Ohio River Valley by 12Z Thursday. At the surface, a weak low will move along a frontal zone from West Texas to the Ohio Valley and then deepen into the eastern Great Lakes between 06Z and 12Z Thursday. A broad warm sector will be in place along the Gulf Coast states and will attempt to progress inland, but extensive precipitation within a warm air advection zone from northern Louisiana to northern Georgia will stunt its northward progress. ...Southeast... There is a consistent signal among 12Z CAM guidance for a line of storms to either develop south of or emanate from an expansive area of precipitation across Louisiana tomorrow morning. There will be a period of time during the afternoon when this line of storms may have sufficient instability (amid a strongly sheared environment) to support a damaging wind threat and tornado threat, particularly with any embedded supercells). However, by late afternoon/evening this line of storms will weaken as it moves east of the better instability. An additional severe weather threat will evolve from the late afternoon into the overnight hours as the surface front surges southeast and the low-level jet strengthens. This threat will begin across eastern Louisiana. Earlier in the afternoon, winds will be veered across this region, but as the front sharpens and the low-level jet strengthens, winds are expected to back somewhat which will increase low-level convergence along the front and strengthen low-level shear. The southeastward acceleration of the surface front may eventually outrun the line of storms given the mean storm motion vector, however, 12Z guidance has indicated a greater threat for a pre-frontal band of supercells after 06Z across southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. This scenario seems reasonable given the stronger low-level jet forecast between 06Z and 12Z and also based on current (17Z) surface observations showing dewpoints 2 to 3 F greater than most guidance today. A pre-frontal band of supercells would continue the severe weather threat, including the tornado threat, through the entire overnight period. The slight risk has been expanded south and east to address this concern. ..Bentley.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night from the Sabine Valley vicinity into far western Georgia. ...Synopsis... A broad trough with multiple embedded mid-level vorticity maxima will become more consolidated with a 125 knot mid-level jet streak over the Lower Ohio River Valley by 12Z Thursday. At the surface, a weak low will move along a frontal zone from West Texas to the Ohio Valley and then deepen into the eastern Great Lakes between 06Z and 12Z Thursday. A broad warm sector will be in place along the Gulf Coast states and will attempt to progress inland, but extensive precipitation within a warm air advection zone from northern Louisiana to northern Georgia will stunt its northward progress. ...Southeast... There is a consistent signal among 12Z CAM guidance for a line of storms to either develop south of or emanate from an expansive area of precipitation across Louisiana tomorrow morning. There will be a period of time during the afternoon when this line of storms may have sufficient instability (amid a strongly sheared environment) to support a damaging wind threat and tornado threat, particularly with any embedded supercells). However, by late afternoon/evening this line of storms will weaken as it moves east of the better instability. An additional severe weather threat will evolve from the late afternoon into the overnight hours as the surface front surges southeast and the low-level jet strengthens. This threat will begin across eastern Louisiana. Earlier in the afternoon, winds will be veered across this region, but as the front sharpens and the low-level jet strengthens, winds are expected to back somewhat which will increase low-level convergence along the front and strengthen low-level shear. The southeastward acceleration of the surface front may eventually outrun the line of storms given the mean storm motion vector, however, 12Z guidance has indicated a greater threat for a pre-frontal band of supercells after 06Z across southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. This scenario seems reasonable given the stronger low-level jet forecast between 06Z and 12Z and also based on current (17Z) surface observations showing dewpoints 2 to 3 F greater than most guidance today. A pre-frontal band of supercells would continue the severe weather threat, including the tornado threat, through the entire overnight period. The slight risk has been expanded south and east to address this concern. ..Bentley.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night from the Sabine Valley vicinity into far western Georgia. ...Synopsis... A broad trough with multiple embedded mid-level vorticity maxima will become more consolidated with a 125 knot mid-level jet streak over the Lower Ohio River Valley by 12Z Thursday. At the surface, a weak low will move along a frontal zone from West Texas to the Ohio Valley and then deepen into the eastern Great Lakes between 06Z and 12Z Thursday. A broad warm sector will be in place along the Gulf Coast states and will attempt to progress inland, but extensive precipitation within a warm air advection zone from northern Louisiana to northern Georgia will stunt its northward progress. ...Southeast... There is a consistent signal among 12Z CAM guidance for a line of storms to either develop south of or emanate from an expansive area of precipitation across Louisiana tomorrow morning. There will be a period of time during the afternoon when this line of storms may have sufficient instability (amid a strongly sheared environment) to support a damaging wind threat and tornado threat, particularly with any embedded supercells). However, by late afternoon/evening this line of storms will weaken as it moves east of the better instability. An additional severe weather threat will evolve from the late afternoon into the overnight hours as the surface front surges southeast and the low-level jet strengthens. This threat will begin across eastern Louisiana. Earlier in the afternoon, winds will be veered across this region, but as the front sharpens and the low-level jet strengthens, winds are expected to back somewhat which will increase low-level convergence along the front and strengthen low-level shear. The southeastward acceleration of the surface front may eventually outrun the line of storms given the mean storm motion vector, however, 12Z guidance has indicated a greater threat for a pre-frontal band of supercells after 06Z across southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. This scenario seems reasonable given the stronger low-level jet forecast between 06Z and 12Z and also based on current (17Z) surface observations showing dewpoints 2 to 3 F greater than most guidance today. A pre-frontal band of supercells would continue the severe weather threat, including the tornado threat, through the entire overnight period. The slight risk has been expanded south and east to address this concern. ..Bentley.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night from the Sabine Valley vicinity into far western Georgia. ...Synopsis... A broad trough with multiple embedded mid-level vorticity maxima will become more consolidated with a 125 knot mid-level jet streak over the Lower Ohio River Valley by 12Z Thursday. At the surface, a weak low will move along a frontal zone from West Texas to the Ohio Valley and then deepen into the eastern Great Lakes between 06Z and 12Z Thursday. A broad warm sector will be in place along the Gulf Coast states and will attempt to progress inland, but extensive precipitation within a warm air advection zone from northern Louisiana to northern Georgia will stunt its northward progress. ...Southeast... There is a consistent signal among 12Z CAM guidance for a line of storms to either develop south of or emanate from an expansive area of precipitation across Louisiana tomorrow morning. There will be a period of time during the afternoon when this line of storms may have sufficient instability (amid a strongly sheared environment) to support a damaging wind threat and tornado threat, particularly with any embedded supercells). However, by late afternoon/evening this line of storms will weaken as it moves east of the better instability. An additional severe weather threat will evolve from the late afternoon into the overnight hours as the surface front surges southeast and the low-level jet strengthens. This threat will begin across eastern Louisiana. Earlier in the afternoon, winds will be veered across this region, but as the front sharpens and the low-level jet strengthens, winds are expected to back somewhat which will increase low-level convergence along the front and strengthen low-level shear. The southeastward acceleration of the surface front may eventually outrun the line of storms given the mean storm motion vector, however, 12Z guidance has indicated a greater threat for a pre-frontal band of supercells after 06Z across southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. This scenario seems reasonable given the stronger low-level jet forecast between 06Z and 12Z and also based on current (17Z) surface observations showing dewpoints 2 to 3 F greater than most guidance today. A pre-frontal band of supercells would continue the severe weather threat, including the tornado threat, through the entire overnight period. The slight risk has been expanded south and east to address this concern. ..Bentley.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA... Only minor adjustments were made to today's Elevated and Critical areas. Based on the latest high-resolution data, it appears wind speeds of 25-30 mph will extend slightly further to the northwest near the southern NM/AZ border. This is also where relative humidity in the low teens will be present by late this afternoon. Otherwise, please see the previous forecast discussion for additional meteorological details. ..Barnes.. 02/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, an embedded shortwave trough and strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Southwest. In response, a surface low will deepen over the Four Corners before drifting east-southeastward across NM. ...Southwest NM and far southeast AZ... South of the surface low, a tightening pressure gradient will yield 25-30 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across southwest NM and far southeast AZ. These winds will combine with a warm/dry antecedent air mass (15-20 percent afternoon RH), and given modestly dry/receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA... Only minor adjustments were made to today's Elevated and Critical areas. Based on the latest high-resolution data, it appears wind speeds of 25-30 mph will extend slightly further to the northwest near the southern NM/AZ border. This is also where relative humidity in the low teens will be present by late this afternoon. Otherwise, please see the previous forecast discussion for additional meteorological details. ..Barnes.. 02/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, an embedded shortwave trough and strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Southwest. In response, a surface low will deepen over the Four Corners before drifting east-southeastward across NM. ...Southwest NM and far southeast AZ... South of the surface low, a tightening pressure gradient will yield 25-30 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across southwest NM and far southeast AZ. These winds will combine with a warm/dry antecedent air mass (15-20 percent afternoon RH), and given modestly dry/receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA... Only minor adjustments were made to today's Elevated and Critical areas. Based on the latest high-resolution data, it appears wind speeds of 25-30 mph will extend slightly further to the northwest near the southern NM/AZ border. This is also where relative humidity in the low teens will be present by late this afternoon. Otherwise, please see the previous forecast discussion for additional meteorological details. ..Barnes.. 02/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, an embedded shortwave trough and strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Southwest. In response, a surface low will deepen over the Four Corners before drifting east-southeastward across NM. ...Southwest NM and far southeast AZ... South of the surface low, a tightening pressure gradient will yield 25-30 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across southwest NM and far southeast AZ. These winds will combine with a warm/dry antecedent air mass (15-20 percent afternoon RH), and given modestly dry/receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA... Only minor adjustments were made to today's Elevated and Critical areas. Based on the latest high-resolution data, it appears wind speeds of 25-30 mph will extend slightly further to the northwest near the southern NM/AZ border. This is also where relative humidity in the low teens will be present by late this afternoon. Otherwise, please see the previous forecast discussion for additional meteorological details. ..Barnes.. 02/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, an embedded shortwave trough and strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Southwest. In response, a surface low will deepen over the Four Corners before drifting east-southeastward across NM. ...Southwest NM and far southeast AZ... South of the surface low, a tightening pressure gradient will yield 25-30 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across southwest NM and far southeast AZ. These winds will combine with a warm/dry antecedent air mass (15-20 percent afternoon RH), and given modestly dry/receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA... Only minor adjustments were made to today's Elevated and Critical areas. Based on the latest high-resolution data, it appears wind speeds of 25-30 mph will extend slightly further to the northwest near the southern NM/AZ border. This is also where relative humidity in the low teens will be present by late this afternoon. Otherwise, please see the previous forecast discussion for additional meteorological details. ..Barnes.. 02/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, an embedded shortwave trough and strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Southwest. In response, a surface low will deepen over the Four Corners before drifting east-southeastward across NM. ...Southwest NM and far southeast AZ... South of the surface low, a tightening pressure gradient will yield 25-30 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across southwest NM and far southeast AZ. These winds will combine with a warm/dry antecedent air mass (15-20 percent afternoon RH), and given modestly dry/receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA... Only minor adjustments were made to today's Elevated and Critical areas. Based on the latest high-resolution data, it appears wind speeds of 25-30 mph will extend slightly further to the northwest near the southern NM/AZ border. This is also where relative humidity in the low teens will be present by late this afternoon. Otherwise, please see the previous forecast discussion for additional meteorological details. ..Barnes.. 02/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, an embedded shortwave trough and strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Southwest. In response, a surface low will deepen over the Four Corners before drifting east-southeastward across NM. ...Southwest NM and far southeast AZ... South of the surface low, a tightening pressure gradient will yield 25-30 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across southwest NM and far southeast AZ. These winds will combine with a warm/dry antecedent air mass (15-20 percent afternoon RH), and given modestly dry/receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TX AND MS/AL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from south Texas into parts of Mississippi and Alabama through tonight. ...South TX to MS/AL through tonight... Clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing near a surface cold front in the Houston area, on the edge of surface temperatures in the low 70s with dewpoints near 70 F. The proximity VWP from HGX shows modest low-level shear/hodograph curvature and stronger flow above 5 km AGL, with some potential for organized storm structures within the band. However, the cold front is also tending to undercut the storms, which casts doubt on the severe storm potential in the short term. Farther east, warming temperatures in cloud breaks and a gradual increase in low-level moisture will result in modest destabilization through the afternoon. 12z regional soundings suggest that midlevel lapse rates will remain relatively poor, though surface temperatures of 75-80 F and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s will drive MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. Shallow convection is likely in the open warm sector, but thunderstorm potential will be focused along the front where low-level ascent will be maximized later this afternoon/evening. Assuming a couple of storms can form along the front, there will be the potential for isolated wind damage and perhaps a tornado. Overnight, thunderstorm coverage should increase along and immediately north of the front across south central TX, as a midlevel shortwave trough near Baja ejects east-northeastward. Midlevel lapse rates in the 7.5-8.5 C/km range and moistening atop the frontal surface will support MUCAPE near or above 1000 J/kg, while effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt/long hodographs will be sufficient for elevated organized/supercell storms capable of producing isolated large hail and possibly wind damage. ..Thompson/Moore.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TX AND MS/AL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from south Texas into parts of Mississippi and Alabama through tonight. ...South TX to MS/AL through tonight... Clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing near a surface cold front in the Houston area, on the edge of surface temperatures in the low 70s with dewpoints near 70 F. The proximity VWP from HGX shows modest low-level shear/hodograph curvature and stronger flow above 5 km AGL, with some potential for organized storm structures within the band. However, the cold front is also tending to undercut the storms, which casts doubt on the severe storm potential in the short term. Farther east, warming temperatures in cloud breaks and a gradual increase in low-level moisture will result in modest destabilization through the afternoon. 12z regional soundings suggest that midlevel lapse rates will remain relatively poor, though surface temperatures of 75-80 F and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s will drive MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. Shallow convection is likely in the open warm sector, but thunderstorm potential will be focused along the front where low-level ascent will be maximized later this afternoon/evening. Assuming a couple of storms can form along the front, there will be the potential for isolated wind damage and perhaps a tornado. Overnight, thunderstorm coverage should increase along and immediately north of the front across south central TX, as a midlevel shortwave trough near Baja ejects east-northeastward. Midlevel lapse rates in the 7.5-8.5 C/km range and moistening atop the frontal surface will support MUCAPE near or above 1000 J/kg, while effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt/long hodographs will be sufficient for elevated organized/supercell storms capable of producing isolated large hail and possibly wind damage. ..Thompson/Moore.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TX AND MS/AL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from south Texas into parts of Mississippi and Alabama through tonight. ...South TX to MS/AL through tonight... Clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing near a surface cold front in the Houston area, on the edge of surface temperatures in the low 70s with dewpoints near 70 F. The proximity VWP from HGX shows modest low-level shear/hodograph curvature and stronger flow above 5 km AGL, with some potential for organized storm structures within the band. However, the cold front is also tending to undercut the storms, which casts doubt on the severe storm potential in the short term. Farther east, warming temperatures in cloud breaks and a gradual increase in low-level moisture will result in modest destabilization through the afternoon. 12z regional soundings suggest that midlevel lapse rates will remain relatively poor, though surface temperatures of 75-80 F and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s will drive MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. Shallow convection is likely in the open warm sector, but thunderstorm potential will be focused along the front where low-level ascent will be maximized later this afternoon/evening. Assuming a couple of storms can form along the front, there will be the potential for isolated wind damage and perhaps a tornado. Overnight, thunderstorm coverage should increase along and immediately north of the front across south central TX, as a midlevel shortwave trough near Baja ejects east-northeastward. Midlevel lapse rates in the 7.5-8.5 C/km range and moistening atop the frontal surface will support MUCAPE near or above 1000 J/kg, while effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt/long hodographs will be sufficient for elevated organized/supercell storms capable of producing isolated large hail and possibly wind damage. ..Thompson/Moore.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TX AND MS/AL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from south Texas into parts of Mississippi and Alabama through tonight. ...South TX to MS/AL through tonight... Clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing near a surface cold front in the Houston area, on the edge of surface temperatures in the low 70s with dewpoints near 70 F. The proximity VWP from HGX shows modest low-level shear/hodograph curvature and stronger flow above 5 km AGL, with some potential for organized storm structures within the band. However, the cold front is also tending to undercut the storms, which casts doubt on the severe storm potential in the short term. Farther east, warming temperatures in cloud breaks and a gradual increase in low-level moisture will result in modest destabilization through the afternoon. 12z regional soundings suggest that midlevel lapse rates will remain relatively poor, though surface temperatures of 75-80 F and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s will drive MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. Shallow convection is likely in the open warm sector, but thunderstorm potential will be focused along the front where low-level ascent will be maximized later this afternoon/evening. Assuming a couple of storms can form along the front, there will be the potential for isolated wind damage and perhaps a tornado. Overnight, thunderstorm coverage should increase along and immediately north of the front across south central TX, as a midlevel shortwave trough near Baja ejects east-northeastward. Midlevel lapse rates in the 7.5-8.5 C/km range and moistening atop the frontal surface will support MUCAPE near or above 1000 J/kg, while effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt/long hodographs will be sufficient for elevated organized/supercell storms capable of producing isolated large hail and possibly wind damage. ..Thompson/Moore.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TX AND MS/AL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from south Texas into parts of Mississippi and Alabama through tonight. ...South TX to MS/AL through tonight... Clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing near a surface cold front in the Houston area, on the edge of surface temperatures in the low 70s with dewpoints near 70 F. The proximity VWP from HGX shows modest low-level shear/hodograph curvature and stronger flow above 5 km AGL, with some potential for organized storm structures within the band. However, the cold front is also tending to undercut the storms, which casts doubt on the severe storm potential in the short term. Farther east, warming temperatures in cloud breaks and a gradual increase in low-level moisture will result in modest destabilization through the afternoon. 12z regional soundings suggest that midlevel lapse rates will remain relatively poor, though surface temperatures of 75-80 F and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s will drive MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. Shallow convection is likely in the open warm sector, but thunderstorm potential will be focused along the front where low-level ascent will be maximized later this afternoon/evening. Assuming a couple of storms can form along the front, there will be the potential for isolated wind damage and perhaps a tornado. Overnight, thunderstorm coverage should increase along and immediately north of the front across south central TX, as a midlevel shortwave trough near Baja ejects east-northeastward. Midlevel lapse rates in the 7.5-8.5 C/km range and moistening atop the frontal surface will support MUCAPE near or above 1000 J/kg, while effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt/long hodographs will be sufficient for elevated organized/supercell storms capable of producing isolated large hail and possibly wind damage. ..Thompson/Moore.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TX AND MS/AL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from south Texas into parts of Mississippi and Alabama through tonight. ...South TX to MS/AL through tonight... Clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing near a surface cold front in the Houston area, on the edge of surface temperatures in the low 70s with dewpoints near 70 F. The proximity VWP from HGX shows modest low-level shear/hodograph curvature and stronger flow above 5 km AGL, with some potential for organized storm structures within the band. However, the cold front is also tending to undercut the storms, which casts doubt on the severe storm potential in the short term. Farther east, warming temperatures in cloud breaks and a gradual increase in low-level moisture will result in modest destabilization through the afternoon. 12z regional soundings suggest that midlevel lapse rates will remain relatively poor, though surface temperatures of 75-80 F and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s will drive MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. Shallow convection is likely in the open warm sector, but thunderstorm potential will be focused along the front where low-level ascent will be maximized later this afternoon/evening. Assuming a couple of storms can form along the front, there will be the potential for isolated wind damage and perhaps a tornado. Overnight, thunderstorm coverage should increase along and immediately north of the front across south central TX, as a midlevel shortwave trough near Baja ejects east-northeastward. Midlevel lapse rates in the 7.5-8.5 C/km range and moistening atop the frontal surface will support MUCAPE near or above 1000 J/kg, while effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt/long hodographs will be sufficient for elevated organized/supercell storms capable of producing isolated large hail and possibly wind damage. ..Thompson/Moore.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TX AND MS/AL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from south Texas into parts of Mississippi and Alabama through tonight. ...South TX to MS/AL through tonight... Clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing near a surface cold front in the Houston area, on the edge of surface temperatures in the low 70s with dewpoints near 70 F. The proximity VWP from HGX shows modest low-level shear/hodograph curvature and stronger flow above 5 km AGL, with some potential for organized storm structures within the band. However, the cold front is also tending to undercut the storms, which casts doubt on the severe storm potential in the short term. Farther east, warming temperatures in cloud breaks and a gradual increase in low-level moisture will result in modest destabilization through the afternoon. 12z regional soundings suggest that midlevel lapse rates will remain relatively poor, though surface temperatures of 75-80 F and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s will drive MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. Shallow convection is likely in the open warm sector, but thunderstorm potential will be focused along the front where low-level ascent will be maximized later this afternoon/evening. Assuming a couple of storms can form along the front, there will be the potential for isolated wind damage and perhaps a tornado. Overnight, thunderstorm coverage should increase along and immediately north of the front across south central TX, as a midlevel shortwave trough near Baja ejects east-northeastward. Midlevel lapse rates in the 7.5-8.5 C/km range and moistening atop the frontal surface will support MUCAPE near or above 1000 J/kg, while effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt/long hodographs will be sufficient for elevated organized/supercell storms capable of producing isolated large hail and possibly wind damage. ..Thompson/Moore.. 02/11/2025 Read more

MD 0080 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY/WESTERN VIRGINIA/SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0080 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Areas affected...Central and Eastern Kentucky/Western Virginia/Southern West Virginia Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 110906Z - 111500Z SUMMARY...A band of snow will continue to develop across the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians over the next couple of hours. Snowfall rates of greater than one inch per hour will be possible within the heavier parts of the band, with a mix of freezing rain and snow to the south of this band. DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery shows west-southwesterly mid-level flow currently present across the eastern U.S., with a split mid-level jet pattern evident. Lift is likely being enhanced within the right entrance region of a mid-level jet that is analyzed in northern Kentucky. Widespread precipitation, in the form of a mix of rain, freezing rain and snow, is ongoing to the south of this feature from southeast Missouri eastward across Kentucky into western Virginia. Isentropic lift, in conjunction with strengthening low-level flow, is forecast to steadily increase along this east-to-west corridor early this morning. Surface temperatures are in the mid 30s F across much of central Kentucky, with lower 30s F in the central Appalachians. Temperatures will continue to gradually cool as the coverage of moderate to heavy precipitation increases early this morning. Within the more intense parts of the band, pockets of heavy snowfall are expected, with some locations exceeding one inch per hour. To the south of this band of snow, precipitation is expected to be a freezing rain and snow mix. After daybreak, warmer air is forecast to spread northward into parts of central and eastern Kentucky, which result in a changeover to rain in many areas. ..Broyles/Mosier.. 02/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK... LAT...LON 37228568 37328600 37428621 37508627 37668629 37858619 38018601 38168573 38318519 38508428 38578299 38588149 38488059 38318008 37977965 37467963 37197977 37047998 36898037 36788127 36858262 37048453 37228568 Read more