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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL ALABAMA.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. Some strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from southeast Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley into southern Mississippi and central Alabama. ...Synopsis... A pair of shortwave troughs are expected to progress through the southern Plains today as the cyclonic flow aloft across the western CONUS deepens. The first of these shortwaves is currently moving through the southern High Plains while the second remains off the coast of the northern Baja Peninsula. Both of those shortwaves are expected to progress quickly eastward, with the lead wave reaching the Mid-Atlantic by early Wednesday and the second shortwave reaching central TX. ...Lower MS Valley into southern/central MS and AL... As mentioned in the synopsis, the lead shortwave trough is currently moving through the southern High Plains, with preceding warm-air advection contributing to an expansive area of precipitation from the TX Hill Country into the Mid-South. General expectation is that this area of precipitation will gradually shift northeastward throughout the day, remaining just ahead of the eastward-progressing shortwave. Low-level moisture return ahead of the first wave will be modest, particularly across TX where the modified Gulf moisture will likely remain confined to the coastal plain. Farther east, greater inland moisture advection is anticipated, with mid 60s dewpoints advection through much of the Lower MS Valley by the early afternoon. Lower 60s dewpoints are likely in the central portions of MS and AL by the late afternoon/early evening. Even with this low-level moisture advection, mid-level temperatures will remain warm, keeping the overall buoyancy modest (i.e. MUCAPE less than 1000 J/kg) across the region. In contrast to the modest buoyancy, vertical shear will be quite strong, with effective bulk shear over 50 kt from the Lower MS Valley into AL and MS during the afternoon and evening. This strong vertical shear may be able to compensate for the lower buoyancy, and there could be a window for a few strong to severe storms this afternoon/evening along and ahead of the cold front from southern MS into southern and central AL. Primary risk would be damaging wind gusts, but enough low-level shear exists for a low-probability tornado threat as well. ...Southern Plains late tonight... Strong large-scale forcing for ascent will spread across the southern High Plains and into west TX late tonight ahead of the second shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis. Notable moistening between 850 and 700 mb combined with mid-level cooling will help support modest elevated buoyancy. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across West TX tonight before then spreading eastward/northeastward into more of OK and north/central TX. Much of this activity will be displaced well north/northwest of front and greater low-level moisture. Some hail is possible, but updraft depth and duration will be limited by weak buoyancy, and the current expectation is for any hail to remain very isolated. As these storms move east/southeast with time, some interaction could occur with a warm front gradually moving northward into more of southeast TX early Wednesday morning. Increased buoyancy as well as enhanced mesoscale ascent in the vicinity of the front is expected to result in greater thunderstorm depth and duration. Vertical shear will remain strong as well, with all of these factors supporting a greater severe potential across southeast TX and adjacent far southwestern LA early Wednesday morning. Damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado are the primary threats. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/11/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Friday... Late in the period, the approaching trough will promote moisture return within the Lower Mississippi Valley, Arkansas, and East Texas. Model guidance shows some hints at potential storm development, but coverage is far from certain due to some lingering capping from warmer air aloft. Should storms form, they most likely would be elevated. Coverage concerns preclude adding severe probabilities, but large hail is conditionally possible. ...Day 5/Saturday... A strong trough, which has trended more amplified in the ECMWF, is expected to impact the Sabine Valley into the Southeast starting in the afternoon. The latest model trends also have a more favorable placement of the surface low in the Tennessee Valley. These factors will drive strong moisture advection into the region by Saturday morning, continuing into Sunday. Intense wind fields throughout the column will support organized storms capable of all hazards. Damaging winds, particularly with linear convection along the strong cold front, currently appears as the main threat. The magnitude of the tornado threat will largely depend on discrete development ahead of the front. Given the moist environment with minimal inhibition and strong forcing, that scenario is certainly plausible. Discrete development or not, low-level wind fields still will support line-embedded circulations. Despite more limited buoyancy farther north, the strongly forced convective line and 60-70 kts of 850 mb flow would support damaging winds even in shallow convection. Uncertainties still remain along the fringes of the highlighted area (i.e., how far west will convection form, how unstable will it be to the north/east). Mid-level lapse rates will also not be overlay steep. Even so, the overall pattern continues to support the potential for scattered to numerous severe storms. ...Day 6/Sunday... As the strong trough and cold front continue east, the convective line will likely stretch from the eastern Florida Panhandle into the Piedmont early Sunday morning. Strong forcing and wind fields will still be in place. The primary uncertainty is the degree of destabilization that can occur ahead of the line given the arrival before the diurnal heating maximum. Where heating can occur, which may be near the coastline, some severe potential will exist. The intensity and coverage of these storms is enough in question that severe probabilities will be withheld. ...Day 7 Onward... Severe potential should be minimal on Monday given the expansive colder air and surface high pressure. Another shortwave trough will approach the southern Plains on Tuesday. While some moisture return is possible, this will occur after a fairly substantial cold air intrusion to the central Gulf. Uncertainty in an appreciable severe risk is high. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Friday... Late in the period, the approaching trough will promote moisture return within the Lower Mississippi Valley, Arkansas, and East Texas. Model guidance shows some hints at potential storm development, but coverage is far from certain due to some lingering capping from warmer air aloft. Should storms form, they most likely would be elevated. Coverage concerns preclude adding severe probabilities, but large hail is conditionally possible. ...Day 5/Saturday... A strong trough, which has trended more amplified in the ECMWF, is expected to impact the Sabine Valley into the Southeast starting in the afternoon. The latest model trends also have a more favorable placement of the surface low in the Tennessee Valley. These factors will drive strong moisture advection into the region by Saturday morning, continuing into Sunday. Intense wind fields throughout the column will support organized storms capable of all hazards. Damaging winds, particularly with linear convection along the strong cold front, currently appears as the main threat. The magnitude of the tornado threat will largely depend on discrete development ahead of the front. Given the moist environment with minimal inhibition and strong forcing, that scenario is certainly plausible. Discrete development or not, low-level wind fields still will support line-embedded circulations. Despite more limited buoyancy farther north, the strongly forced convective line and 60-70 kts of 850 mb flow would support damaging winds even in shallow convection. Uncertainties still remain along the fringes of the highlighted area (i.e., how far west will convection form, how unstable will it be to the north/east). Mid-level lapse rates will also not be overlay steep. Even so, the overall pattern continues to support the potential for scattered to numerous severe storms. ...Day 6/Sunday... As the strong trough and cold front continue east, the convective line will likely stretch from the eastern Florida Panhandle into the Piedmont early Sunday morning. Strong forcing and wind fields will still be in place. The primary uncertainty is the degree of destabilization that can occur ahead of the line given the arrival before the diurnal heating maximum. Where heating can occur, which may be near the coastline, some severe potential will exist. The intensity and coverage of these storms is enough in question that severe probabilities will be withheld. ...Day 7 Onward... Severe potential should be minimal on Monday given the expansive colder air and surface high pressure. Another shortwave trough will approach the southern Plains on Tuesday. While some moisture return is possible, this will occur after a fairly substantial cold air intrusion to the central Gulf. Uncertainty in an appreciable severe risk is high. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Friday... Late in the period, the approaching trough will promote moisture return within the Lower Mississippi Valley, Arkansas, and East Texas. Model guidance shows some hints at potential storm development, but coverage is far from certain due to some lingering capping from warmer air aloft. Should storms form, they most likely would be elevated. Coverage concerns preclude adding severe probabilities, but large hail is conditionally possible. ...Day 5/Saturday... A strong trough, which has trended more amplified in the ECMWF, is expected to impact the Sabine Valley into the Southeast starting in the afternoon. The latest model trends also have a more favorable placement of the surface low in the Tennessee Valley. These factors will drive strong moisture advection into the region by Saturday morning, continuing into Sunday. Intense wind fields throughout the column will support organized storms capable of all hazards. Damaging winds, particularly with linear convection along the strong cold front, currently appears as the main threat. The magnitude of the tornado threat will largely depend on discrete development ahead of the front. Given the moist environment with minimal inhibition and strong forcing, that scenario is certainly plausible. Discrete development or not, low-level wind fields still will support line-embedded circulations. Despite more limited buoyancy farther north, the strongly forced convective line and 60-70 kts of 850 mb flow would support damaging winds even in shallow convection. Uncertainties still remain along the fringes of the highlighted area (i.e., how far west will convection form, how unstable will it be to the north/east). Mid-level lapse rates will also not be overlay steep. Even so, the overall pattern continues to support the potential for scattered to numerous severe storms. ...Day 6/Sunday... As the strong trough and cold front continue east, the convective line will likely stretch from the eastern Florida Panhandle into the Piedmont early Sunday morning. Strong forcing and wind fields will still be in place. The primary uncertainty is the degree of destabilization that can occur ahead of the line given the arrival before the diurnal heating maximum. Where heating can occur, which may be near the coastline, some severe potential will exist. The intensity and coverage of these storms is enough in question that severe probabilities will be withheld. ...Day 7 Onward... Severe potential should be minimal on Monday given the expansive colder air and surface high pressure. Another shortwave trough will approach the southern Plains on Tuesday. While some moisture return is possible, this will occur after a fairly substantial cold air intrusion to the central Gulf. Uncertainty in an appreciable severe risk is high. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Friday... Late in the period, the approaching trough will promote moisture return within the Lower Mississippi Valley, Arkansas, and East Texas. Model guidance shows some hints at potential storm development, but coverage is far from certain due to some lingering capping from warmer air aloft. Should storms form, they most likely would be elevated. Coverage concerns preclude adding severe probabilities, but large hail is conditionally possible. ...Day 5/Saturday... A strong trough, which has trended more amplified in the ECMWF, is expected to impact the Sabine Valley into the Southeast starting in the afternoon. The latest model trends also have a more favorable placement of the surface low in the Tennessee Valley. These factors will drive strong moisture advection into the region by Saturday morning, continuing into Sunday. Intense wind fields throughout the column will support organized storms capable of all hazards. Damaging winds, particularly with linear convection along the strong cold front, currently appears as the main threat. The magnitude of the tornado threat will largely depend on discrete development ahead of the front. Given the moist environment with minimal inhibition and strong forcing, that scenario is certainly plausible. Discrete development or not, low-level wind fields still will support line-embedded circulations. Despite more limited buoyancy farther north, the strongly forced convective line and 60-70 kts of 850 mb flow would support damaging winds even in shallow convection. Uncertainties still remain along the fringes of the highlighted area (i.e., how far west will convection form, how unstable will it be to the north/east). Mid-level lapse rates will also not be overlay steep. Even so, the overall pattern continues to support the potential for scattered to numerous severe storms. ...Day 6/Sunday... As the strong trough and cold front continue east, the convective line will likely stretch from the eastern Florida Panhandle into the Piedmont early Sunday morning. Strong forcing and wind fields will still be in place. The primary uncertainty is the degree of destabilization that can occur ahead of the line given the arrival before the diurnal heating maximum. Where heating can occur, which may be near the coastline, some severe potential will exist. The intensity and coverage of these storms is enough in question that severe probabilities will be withheld. ...Day 7 Onward... Severe potential should be minimal on Monday given the expansive colder air and surface high pressure. Another shortwave trough will approach the southern Plains on Tuesday. While some moisture return is possible, this will occur after a fairly substantial cold air intrusion to the central Gulf. Uncertainty in an appreciable severe risk is high. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Friday... Late in the period, the approaching trough will promote moisture return within the Lower Mississippi Valley, Arkansas, and East Texas. Model guidance shows some hints at potential storm development, but coverage is far from certain due to some lingering capping from warmer air aloft. Should storms form, they most likely would be elevated. Coverage concerns preclude adding severe probabilities, but large hail is conditionally possible. ...Day 5/Saturday... A strong trough, which has trended more amplified in the ECMWF, is expected to impact the Sabine Valley into the Southeast starting in the afternoon. The latest model trends also have a more favorable placement of the surface low in the Tennessee Valley. These factors will drive strong moisture advection into the region by Saturday morning, continuing into Sunday. Intense wind fields throughout the column will support organized storms capable of all hazards. Damaging winds, particularly with linear convection along the strong cold front, currently appears as the main threat. The magnitude of the tornado threat will largely depend on discrete development ahead of the front. Given the moist environment with minimal inhibition and strong forcing, that scenario is certainly plausible. Discrete development or not, low-level wind fields still will support line-embedded circulations. Despite more limited buoyancy farther north, the strongly forced convective line and 60-70 kts of 850 mb flow would support damaging winds even in shallow convection. Uncertainties still remain along the fringes of the highlighted area (i.e., how far west will convection form, how unstable will it be to the north/east). Mid-level lapse rates will also not be overlay steep. Even so, the overall pattern continues to support the potential for scattered to numerous severe storms. ...Day 6/Sunday... As the strong trough and cold front continue east, the convective line will likely stretch from the eastern Florida Panhandle into the Piedmont early Sunday morning. Strong forcing and wind fields will still be in place. The primary uncertainty is the degree of destabilization that can occur ahead of the line given the arrival before the diurnal heating maximum. Where heating can occur, which may be near the coastline, some severe potential will exist. The intensity and coverage of these storms is enough in question that severe probabilities will be withheld. ...Day 7 Onward... Severe potential should be minimal on Monday given the expansive colder air and surface high pressure. Another shortwave trough will approach the southern Plains on Tuesday. While some moisture return is possible, this will occur after a fairly substantial cold air intrusion to the central Gulf. Uncertainty in an appreciable severe risk is high. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Friday... Late in the period, the approaching trough will promote moisture return within the Lower Mississippi Valley, Arkansas, and East Texas. Model guidance shows some hints at potential storm development, but coverage is far from certain due to some lingering capping from warmer air aloft. Should storms form, they most likely would be elevated. Coverage concerns preclude adding severe probabilities, but large hail is conditionally possible. ...Day 5/Saturday... A strong trough, which has trended more amplified in the ECMWF, is expected to impact the Sabine Valley into the Southeast starting in the afternoon. The latest model trends also have a more favorable placement of the surface low in the Tennessee Valley. These factors will drive strong moisture advection into the region by Saturday morning, continuing into Sunday. Intense wind fields throughout the column will support organized storms capable of all hazards. Damaging winds, particularly with linear convection along the strong cold front, currently appears as the main threat. The magnitude of the tornado threat will largely depend on discrete development ahead of the front. Given the moist environment with minimal inhibition and strong forcing, that scenario is certainly plausible. Discrete development or not, low-level wind fields still will support line-embedded circulations. Despite more limited buoyancy farther north, the strongly forced convective line and 60-70 kts of 850 mb flow would support damaging winds even in shallow convection. Uncertainties still remain along the fringes of the highlighted area (i.e., how far west will convection form, how unstable will it be to the north/east). Mid-level lapse rates will also not be overlay steep. Even so, the overall pattern continues to support the potential for scattered to numerous severe storms. ...Day 6/Sunday... As the strong trough and cold front continue east, the convective line will likely stretch from the eastern Florida Panhandle into the Piedmont early Sunday morning. Strong forcing and wind fields will still be in place. The primary uncertainty is the degree of destabilization that can occur ahead of the line given the arrival before the diurnal heating maximum. Where heating can occur, which may be near the coastline, some severe potential will exist. The intensity and coverage of these storms is enough in question that severe probabilities will be withheld. ...Day 7 Onward... Severe potential should be minimal on Monday given the expansive colder air and surface high pressure. Another shortwave trough will approach the southern Plains on Tuesday. While some moisture return is possible, this will occur after a fairly substantial cold air intrusion to the central Gulf. Uncertainty in an appreciable severe risk is high. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible early Thursday morning into perhaps the afternoon in parts of the Piedmont. Additional thunderstorms may occur in coastal central California and parts of the Sacramento Valley. Severe weather potential currently appears low. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorms will be ongoing early Thursday along a cold front in the Florida Panhandle into southwest Georgia. With forcing for ascent rapidly lifting northeastward away from the region, the overall severe threat with this activity appears low. An isolated strong gust could occur into mid-morning, however. Farther north in the southern Appalachians and adjacent Piedmont, strong forcing could promote a few thunderstorms early in the period. As this activity moves eastward, it should encounter a cold air wedge east of the terrain. Northward advection of moisture is not likely to occur sufficiently to support much in the way of instability or strong surface gusts during the afternoon. A strong upper trough will move into northern/central California late Thursday into Friday morning. As a frontal system impacts the region, strong forcing and cold air aloft are expected to support lift/buoyancy that will be marginally supportive of lightning activity. Some of this activity could extend inland into parts of the Sacramento Valley. ..Wendt.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible early Thursday morning into perhaps the afternoon in parts of the Piedmont. Additional thunderstorms may occur in coastal central California and parts of the Sacramento Valley. Severe weather potential currently appears low. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorms will be ongoing early Thursday along a cold front in the Florida Panhandle into southwest Georgia. With forcing for ascent rapidly lifting northeastward away from the region, the overall severe threat with this activity appears low. An isolated strong gust could occur into mid-morning, however. Farther north in the southern Appalachians and adjacent Piedmont, strong forcing could promote a few thunderstorms early in the period. As this activity moves eastward, it should encounter a cold air wedge east of the terrain. Northward advection of moisture is not likely to occur sufficiently to support much in the way of instability or strong surface gusts during the afternoon. A strong upper trough will move into northern/central California late Thursday into Friday morning. As a frontal system impacts the region, strong forcing and cold air aloft are expected to support lift/buoyancy that will be marginally supportive of lightning activity. Some of this activity could extend inland into parts of the Sacramento Valley. ..Wendt.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible early Thursday morning into perhaps the afternoon in parts of the Piedmont. Additional thunderstorms may occur in coastal central California and parts of the Sacramento Valley. Severe weather potential currently appears low. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorms will be ongoing early Thursday along a cold front in the Florida Panhandle into southwest Georgia. With forcing for ascent rapidly lifting northeastward away from the region, the overall severe threat with this activity appears low. An isolated strong gust could occur into mid-morning, however. Farther north in the southern Appalachians and adjacent Piedmont, strong forcing could promote a few thunderstorms early in the period. As this activity moves eastward, it should encounter a cold air wedge east of the terrain. Northward advection of moisture is not likely to occur sufficiently to support much in the way of instability or strong surface gusts during the afternoon. A strong upper trough will move into northern/central California late Thursday into Friday morning. As a frontal system impacts the region, strong forcing and cold air aloft are expected to support lift/buoyancy that will be marginally supportive of lightning activity. Some of this activity could extend inland into parts of the Sacramento Valley. ..Wendt.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible early Thursday morning into perhaps the afternoon in parts of the Piedmont. Additional thunderstorms may occur in coastal central California and parts of the Sacramento Valley. Severe weather potential currently appears low. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorms will be ongoing early Thursday along a cold front in the Florida Panhandle into southwest Georgia. With forcing for ascent rapidly lifting northeastward away from the region, the overall severe threat with this activity appears low. An isolated strong gust could occur into mid-morning, however. Farther north in the southern Appalachians and adjacent Piedmont, strong forcing could promote a few thunderstorms early in the period. As this activity moves eastward, it should encounter a cold air wedge east of the terrain. Northward advection of moisture is not likely to occur sufficiently to support much in the way of instability or strong surface gusts during the afternoon. A strong upper trough will move into northern/central California late Thursday into Friday morning. As a frontal system impacts the region, strong forcing and cold air aloft are expected to support lift/buoyancy that will be marginally supportive of lightning activity. Some of this activity could extend inland into parts of the Sacramento Valley. ..Wendt.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible early Thursday morning into perhaps the afternoon in parts of the Piedmont. Additional thunderstorms may occur in coastal central California and parts of the Sacramento Valley. Severe weather potential currently appears low. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorms will be ongoing early Thursday along a cold front in the Florida Panhandle into southwest Georgia. With forcing for ascent rapidly lifting northeastward away from the region, the overall severe threat with this activity appears low. An isolated strong gust could occur into mid-morning, however. Farther north in the southern Appalachians and adjacent Piedmont, strong forcing could promote a few thunderstorms early in the period. As this activity moves eastward, it should encounter a cold air wedge east of the terrain. Northward advection of moisture is not likely to occur sufficiently to support much in the way of instability or strong surface gusts during the afternoon. A strong upper trough will move into northern/central California late Thursday into Friday morning. As a frontal system impacts the region, strong forcing and cold air aloft are expected to support lift/buoyancy that will be marginally supportive of lightning activity. Some of this activity could extend inland into parts of the Sacramento Valley. ..Wendt.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible early Thursday morning into perhaps the afternoon in parts of the Piedmont. Additional thunderstorms may occur in coastal central California and parts of the Sacramento Valley. Severe weather potential currently appears low. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorms will be ongoing early Thursday along a cold front in the Florida Panhandle into southwest Georgia. With forcing for ascent rapidly lifting northeastward away from the region, the overall severe threat with this activity appears low. An isolated strong gust could occur into mid-morning, however. Farther north in the southern Appalachians and adjacent Piedmont, strong forcing could promote a few thunderstorms early in the period. As this activity moves eastward, it should encounter a cold air wedge east of the terrain. Northward advection of moisture is not likely to occur sufficiently to support much in the way of instability or strong surface gusts during the afternoon. A strong upper trough will move into northern/central California late Thursday into Friday morning. As a frontal system impacts the region, strong forcing and cold air aloft are expected to support lift/buoyancy that will be marginally supportive of lightning activity. Some of this activity could extend inland into parts of the Sacramento Valley. ..Wendt.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible early Thursday morning into perhaps the afternoon in parts of the Piedmont. Additional thunderstorms may occur in coastal central California and parts of the Sacramento Valley. Severe weather potential currently appears low. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorms will be ongoing early Thursday along a cold front in the Florida Panhandle into southwest Georgia. With forcing for ascent rapidly lifting northeastward away from the region, the overall severe threat with this activity appears low. An isolated strong gust could occur into mid-morning, however. Farther north in the southern Appalachians and adjacent Piedmont, strong forcing could promote a few thunderstorms early in the period. As this activity moves eastward, it should encounter a cold air wedge east of the terrain. Northward advection of moisture is not likely to occur sufficiently to support much in the way of instability or strong surface gusts during the afternoon. A strong upper trough will move into northern/central California late Thursday into Friday morning. As a frontal system impacts the region, strong forcing and cold air aloft are expected to support lift/buoyancy that will be marginally supportive of lightning activity. Some of this activity could extend inland into parts of the Sacramento Valley. ..Wendt.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS TRANS-PECOS... ...Synopsis... An amplified midlevel trough accompanied by strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies/Plains. At the same time, a related surface low will linger over the southern High Plains ahead of an approaching cold front. ...TX Trans-Pecos... A modest pressure gradient peripheral to the surface low, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will favor 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) across southern NM into west TX. Over the TX Trans-Pecos, these winds will combine with 15 percent afternoon RH, and given at least modestly receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy conditions will extend farther east into portions of central TX, though preceding rainfall atop already marginal fuels should limit fire-weather concerns here. ..Weinman.. 02/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS TRANS-PECOS... ...Synopsis... An amplified midlevel trough accompanied by strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies/Plains. At the same time, a related surface low will linger over the southern High Plains ahead of an approaching cold front. ...TX Trans-Pecos... A modest pressure gradient peripheral to the surface low, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will favor 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) across southern NM into west TX. Over the TX Trans-Pecos, these winds will combine with 15 percent afternoon RH, and given at least modestly receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy conditions will extend farther east into portions of central TX, though preceding rainfall atop already marginal fuels should limit fire-weather concerns here. ..Weinman.. 02/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS TRANS-PECOS... ...Synopsis... An amplified midlevel trough accompanied by strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies/Plains. At the same time, a related surface low will linger over the southern High Plains ahead of an approaching cold front. ...TX Trans-Pecos... A modest pressure gradient peripheral to the surface low, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will favor 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) across southern NM into west TX. Over the TX Trans-Pecos, these winds will combine with 15 percent afternoon RH, and given at least modestly receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy conditions will extend farther east into portions of central TX, though preceding rainfall atop already marginal fuels should limit fire-weather concerns here. ..Weinman.. 02/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS TRANS-PECOS... ...Synopsis... An amplified midlevel trough accompanied by strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies/Plains. At the same time, a related surface low will linger over the southern High Plains ahead of an approaching cold front. ...TX Trans-Pecos... A modest pressure gradient peripheral to the surface low, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will favor 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) across southern NM into west TX. Over the TX Trans-Pecos, these winds will combine with 15 percent afternoon RH, and given at least modestly receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy conditions will extend farther east into portions of central TX, though preceding rainfall atop already marginal fuels should limit fire-weather concerns here. ..Weinman.. 02/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS TRANS-PECOS... ...Synopsis... An amplified midlevel trough accompanied by strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies/Plains. At the same time, a related surface low will linger over the southern High Plains ahead of an approaching cold front. ...TX Trans-Pecos... A modest pressure gradient peripheral to the surface low, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will favor 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) across southern NM into west TX. Over the TX Trans-Pecos, these winds will combine with 15 percent afternoon RH, and given at least modestly receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy conditions will extend farther east into portions of central TX, though preceding rainfall atop already marginal fuels should limit fire-weather concerns here. ..Weinman.. 02/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS TRANS-PECOS... ...Synopsis... An amplified midlevel trough accompanied by strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies/Plains. At the same time, a related surface low will linger over the southern High Plains ahead of an approaching cold front. ...TX Trans-Pecos... A modest pressure gradient peripheral to the surface low, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will favor 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) across southern NM into west TX. Over the TX Trans-Pecos, these winds will combine with 15 percent afternoon RH, and given at least modestly receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy conditions will extend farther east into portions of central TX, though preceding rainfall atop already marginal fuels should limit fire-weather concerns here. ..Weinman.. 02/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more