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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from south Texas into parts of Mississippi and Alabama through tonight. ...20z Update... The prior forecast remains largely unchanged with minor adjustments to the thunder area. A well-defined cold front, quickly moving over the southern Plains and western MS valley, will likely continue to undercut the modified Gulf air mass over parts over southern TX. Increasing large-scale ascent over the western edge of the moist sector and cold front will support a gradual increase in convective coverage over south-central and west TX this evening and into the overnight hours. Weak to moderate elevated buoyancy and 40-50 kt of effective shear could support a few organized elevated supercell or bowing structures with a risk of hail or an isolated damaging gust over south TX tonight. Weak buoyancy will also likely extend across northern OK and the Ozarks supporting a risk for scattered thunderstorms. Have extended the thunder area farther northeast for lightning potential late tonight. Across the southeast, recent model guidance suggests storms may persist a bit farther east into parts of AL/GA. While buoyancy will be very weak, inland advection of upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints could sustain some elevated thunder potential late tonight. ..Lyons.. 02/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025/ ...South TX to MS/AL through tonight... Clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing near a surface cold front in the Houston area, on the edge of surface temperatures in the low 70s with dewpoints near 70 F. The proximity VWP from HGX shows modest low-level shear/hodograph curvature and stronger flow above 5 km AGL, with some potential for organized storm structures within the band. However, the cold front is also tending to undercut the storms, which casts doubt on the severe storm potential in the short term. Farther east, warming temperatures in cloud breaks and a gradual increase in low-level moisture will result in modest destabilization through the afternoon. 12z regional soundings suggest that midlevel lapse rates will remain relatively poor, though surface temperatures of 75-80 F and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s will drive MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. Shallow convection is likely in the open warm sector, but thunderstorm potential will be focused along the front where low-level ascent will be maximized later this afternoon/evening. Assuming a couple of storms can form along the front, there will be the potential for isolated wind damage and perhaps a tornado. Overnight, thunderstorm coverage should increase along and immediately north of the front across south central TX, as a midlevel shortwave trough near Baja ejects east-northeastward. Midlevel lapse rates in the 7.5-8.5 C/km range and moistening atop the frontal surface will support MUCAPE near or above 1000 J/kg, while effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt/long hodographs will be sufficient for elevated organized/supercell storms capable of producing isolated large hail and possibly wind damage. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from south Texas into parts of Mississippi and Alabama through tonight. ...20z Update... The prior forecast remains largely unchanged with minor adjustments to the thunder area. A well-defined cold front, quickly moving over the southern Plains and western MS valley, will likely continue to undercut the modified Gulf air mass over parts over southern TX. Increasing large-scale ascent over the western edge of the moist sector and cold front will support a gradual increase in convective coverage over south-central and west TX this evening and into the overnight hours. Weak to moderate elevated buoyancy and 40-50 kt of effective shear could support a few organized elevated supercell or bowing structures with a risk of hail or an isolated damaging gust over south TX tonight. Weak buoyancy will also likely extend across northern OK and the Ozarks supporting a risk for scattered thunderstorms. Have extended the thunder area farther northeast for lightning potential late tonight. Across the southeast, recent model guidance suggests storms may persist a bit farther east into parts of AL/GA. While buoyancy will be very weak, inland advection of upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints could sustain some elevated thunder potential late tonight. ..Lyons.. 02/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025/ ...South TX to MS/AL through tonight... Clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing near a surface cold front in the Houston area, on the edge of surface temperatures in the low 70s with dewpoints near 70 F. The proximity VWP from HGX shows modest low-level shear/hodograph curvature and stronger flow above 5 km AGL, with some potential for organized storm structures within the band. However, the cold front is also tending to undercut the storms, which casts doubt on the severe storm potential in the short term. Farther east, warming temperatures in cloud breaks and a gradual increase in low-level moisture will result in modest destabilization through the afternoon. 12z regional soundings suggest that midlevel lapse rates will remain relatively poor, though surface temperatures of 75-80 F and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s will drive MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. Shallow convection is likely in the open warm sector, but thunderstorm potential will be focused along the front where low-level ascent will be maximized later this afternoon/evening. Assuming a couple of storms can form along the front, there will be the potential for isolated wind damage and perhaps a tornado. Overnight, thunderstorm coverage should increase along and immediately north of the front across south central TX, as a midlevel shortwave trough near Baja ejects east-northeastward. Midlevel lapse rates in the 7.5-8.5 C/km range and moistening atop the frontal surface will support MUCAPE near or above 1000 J/kg, while effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt/long hodographs will be sufficient for elevated organized/supercell storms capable of producing isolated large hail and possibly wind damage. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from south Texas into parts of Mississippi and Alabama through tonight. ...20z Update... The prior forecast remains largely unchanged with minor adjustments to the thunder area. A well-defined cold front, quickly moving over the southern Plains and western MS valley, will likely continue to undercut the modified Gulf air mass over parts over southern TX. Increasing large-scale ascent over the western edge of the moist sector and cold front will support a gradual increase in convective coverage over south-central and west TX this evening and into the overnight hours. Weak to moderate elevated buoyancy and 40-50 kt of effective shear could support a few organized elevated supercell or bowing structures with a risk of hail or an isolated damaging gust over south TX tonight. Weak buoyancy will also likely extend across northern OK and the Ozarks supporting a risk for scattered thunderstorms. Have extended the thunder area farther northeast for lightning potential late tonight. Across the southeast, recent model guidance suggests storms may persist a bit farther east into parts of AL/GA. While buoyancy will be very weak, inland advection of upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints could sustain some elevated thunder potential late tonight. ..Lyons.. 02/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025/ ...South TX to MS/AL through tonight... Clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing near a surface cold front in the Houston area, on the edge of surface temperatures in the low 70s with dewpoints near 70 F. The proximity VWP from HGX shows modest low-level shear/hodograph curvature and stronger flow above 5 km AGL, with some potential for organized storm structures within the band. However, the cold front is also tending to undercut the storms, which casts doubt on the severe storm potential in the short term. Farther east, warming temperatures in cloud breaks and a gradual increase in low-level moisture will result in modest destabilization through the afternoon. 12z regional soundings suggest that midlevel lapse rates will remain relatively poor, though surface temperatures of 75-80 F and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s will drive MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. Shallow convection is likely in the open warm sector, but thunderstorm potential will be focused along the front where low-level ascent will be maximized later this afternoon/evening. Assuming a couple of storms can form along the front, there will be the potential for isolated wind damage and perhaps a tornado. Overnight, thunderstorm coverage should increase along and immediately north of the front across south central TX, as a midlevel shortwave trough near Baja ejects east-northeastward. Midlevel lapse rates in the 7.5-8.5 C/km range and moistening atop the frontal surface will support MUCAPE near or above 1000 J/kg, while effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt/long hodographs will be sufficient for elevated organized/supercell storms capable of producing isolated large hail and possibly wind damage. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from south Texas into parts of Mississippi and Alabama through tonight. ...20z Update... The prior forecast remains largely unchanged with minor adjustments to the thunder area. A well-defined cold front, quickly moving over the southern Plains and western MS valley, will likely continue to undercut the modified Gulf air mass over parts over southern TX. Increasing large-scale ascent over the western edge of the moist sector and cold front will support a gradual increase in convective coverage over south-central and west TX this evening and into the overnight hours. Weak to moderate elevated buoyancy and 40-50 kt of effective shear could support a few organized elevated supercell or bowing structures with a risk of hail or an isolated damaging gust over south TX tonight. Weak buoyancy will also likely extend across northern OK and the Ozarks supporting a risk for scattered thunderstorms. Have extended the thunder area farther northeast for lightning potential late tonight. Across the southeast, recent model guidance suggests storms may persist a bit farther east into parts of AL/GA. While buoyancy will be very weak, inland advection of upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints could sustain some elevated thunder potential late tonight. ..Lyons.. 02/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025/ ...South TX to MS/AL through tonight... Clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing near a surface cold front in the Houston area, on the edge of surface temperatures in the low 70s with dewpoints near 70 F. The proximity VWP from HGX shows modest low-level shear/hodograph curvature and stronger flow above 5 km AGL, with some potential for organized storm structures within the band. However, the cold front is also tending to undercut the storms, which casts doubt on the severe storm potential in the short term. Farther east, warming temperatures in cloud breaks and a gradual increase in low-level moisture will result in modest destabilization through the afternoon. 12z regional soundings suggest that midlevel lapse rates will remain relatively poor, though surface temperatures of 75-80 F and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s will drive MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. Shallow convection is likely in the open warm sector, but thunderstorm potential will be focused along the front where low-level ascent will be maximized later this afternoon/evening. Assuming a couple of storms can form along the front, there will be the potential for isolated wind damage and perhaps a tornado. Overnight, thunderstorm coverage should increase along and immediately north of the front across south central TX, as a midlevel shortwave trough near Baja ejects east-northeastward. Midlevel lapse rates in the 7.5-8.5 C/km range and moistening atop the frontal surface will support MUCAPE near or above 1000 J/kg, while effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt/long hodographs will be sufficient for elevated organized/supercell storms capable of producing isolated large hail and possibly wind damage. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from south Texas into parts of Mississippi and Alabama through tonight. ...20z Update... The prior forecast remains largely unchanged with minor adjustments to the thunder area. A well-defined cold front, quickly moving over the southern Plains and western MS valley, will likely continue to undercut the modified Gulf air mass over parts over southern TX. Increasing large-scale ascent over the western edge of the moist sector and cold front will support a gradual increase in convective coverage over south-central and west TX this evening and into the overnight hours. Weak to moderate elevated buoyancy and 40-50 kt of effective shear could support a few organized elevated supercell or bowing structures with a risk of hail or an isolated damaging gust over south TX tonight. Weak buoyancy will also likely extend across northern OK and the Ozarks supporting a risk for scattered thunderstorms. Have extended the thunder area farther northeast for lightning potential late tonight. Across the southeast, recent model guidance suggests storms may persist a bit farther east into parts of AL/GA. While buoyancy will be very weak, inland advection of upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints could sustain some elevated thunder potential late tonight. ..Lyons.. 02/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025/ ...South TX to MS/AL through tonight... Clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing near a surface cold front in the Houston area, on the edge of surface temperatures in the low 70s with dewpoints near 70 F. The proximity VWP from HGX shows modest low-level shear/hodograph curvature and stronger flow above 5 km AGL, with some potential for organized storm structures within the band. However, the cold front is also tending to undercut the storms, which casts doubt on the severe storm potential in the short term. Farther east, warming temperatures in cloud breaks and a gradual increase in low-level moisture will result in modest destabilization through the afternoon. 12z regional soundings suggest that midlevel lapse rates will remain relatively poor, though surface temperatures of 75-80 F and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s will drive MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. Shallow convection is likely in the open warm sector, but thunderstorm potential will be focused along the front where low-level ascent will be maximized later this afternoon/evening. Assuming a couple of storms can form along the front, there will be the potential for isolated wind damage and perhaps a tornado. Overnight, thunderstorm coverage should increase along and immediately north of the front across south central TX, as a midlevel shortwave trough near Baja ejects east-northeastward. Midlevel lapse rates in the 7.5-8.5 C/km range and moistening atop the frontal surface will support MUCAPE near or above 1000 J/kg, while effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt/long hodographs will be sufficient for elevated organized/supercell storms capable of producing isolated large hail and possibly wind damage. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible early Thursday morning into perhaps the afternoon in parts of the Southeast. Additional thunderstorms may occur in coastal central California and parts of the Sacramento Valley. Severe weather potential currently appears low. ...Synopsis... A strong surface low will deepen across the Northeast early Thursday with a cold front extending along the Appalachians and into the Southeast. An area of high pressure will build into the Plains in the wake of this system with another strong surface low approaching the West Coast. ...Southeast... A line of storms will be ongoing at the beginning of the period from the southern Appalachians to the Florida Panhandle. There may be enough instability for an isolated severe weather threat to persist for a few hours after 12Z, but it is currently unclear where exactly this line of storms will be located at that time. Therefore, no marginal risk will be added this time, but one may be needed if the threat does indeed appear to persist after 12Z and once the exact area of this threat becomes more clear. Farther west, cooling air aloft as a mid-level trough approaches the California coast will result in elevated instability and lightning off the coast and into north-central California. ..Bentley.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible early Thursday morning into perhaps the afternoon in parts of the Southeast. Additional thunderstorms may occur in coastal central California and parts of the Sacramento Valley. Severe weather potential currently appears low. ...Synopsis... A strong surface low will deepen across the Northeast early Thursday with a cold front extending along the Appalachians and into the Southeast. An area of high pressure will build into the Plains in the wake of this system with another strong surface low approaching the West Coast. ...Southeast... A line of storms will be ongoing at the beginning of the period from the southern Appalachians to the Florida Panhandle. There may be enough instability for an isolated severe weather threat to persist for a few hours after 12Z, but it is currently unclear where exactly this line of storms will be located at that time. Therefore, no marginal risk will be added this time, but one may be needed if the threat does indeed appear to persist after 12Z and once the exact area of this threat becomes more clear. Farther west, cooling air aloft as a mid-level trough approaches the California coast will result in elevated instability and lightning off the coast and into north-central California. ..Bentley.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible early Thursday morning into perhaps the afternoon in parts of the Southeast. Additional thunderstorms may occur in coastal central California and parts of the Sacramento Valley. Severe weather potential currently appears low. ...Synopsis... A strong surface low will deepen across the Northeast early Thursday with a cold front extending along the Appalachians and into the Southeast. An area of high pressure will build into the Plains in the wake of this system with another strong surface low approaching the West Coast. ...Southeast... A line of storms will be ongoing at the beginning of the period from the southern Appalachians to the Florida Panhandle. There may be enough instability for an isolated severe weather threat to persist for a few hours after 12Z, but it is currently unclear where exactly this line of storms will be located at that time. Therefore, no marginal risk will be added this time, but one may be needed if the threat does indeed appear to persist after 12Z and once the exact area of this threat becomes more clear. Farther west, cooling air aloft as a mid-level trough approaches the California coast will result in elevated instability and lightning off the coast and into north-central California. ..Bentley.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible early Thursday morning into perhaps the afternoon in parts of the Southeast. Additional thunderstorms may occur in coastal central California and parts of the Sacramento Valley. Severe weather potential currently appears low. ...Synopsis... A strong surface low will deepen across the Northeast early Thursday with a cold front extending along the Appalachians and into the Southeast. An area of high pressure will build into the Plains in the wake of this system with another strong surface low approaching the West Coast. ...Southeast... A line of storms will be ongoing at the beginning of the period from the southern Appalachians to the Florida Panhandle. There may be enough instability for an isolated severe weather threat to persist for a few hours after 12Z, but it is currently unclear where exactly this line of storms will be located at that time. Therefore, no marginal risk will be added this time, but one may be needed if the threat does indeed appear to persist after 12Z and once the exact area of this threat becomes more clear. Farther west, cooling air aloft as a mid-level trough approaches the California coast will result in elevated instability and lightning off the coast and into north-central California. ..Bentley.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible early Thursday morning into perhaps the afternoon in parts of the Southeast. Additional thunderstorms may occur in coastal central California and parts of the Sacramento Valley. Severe weather potential currently appears low. ...Synopsis... A strong surface low will deepen across the Northeast early Thursday with a cold front extending along the Appalachians and into the Southeast. An area of high pressure will build into the Plains in the wake of this system with another strong surface low approaching the West Coast. ...Southeast... A line of storms will be ongoing at the beginning of the period from the southern Appalachians to the Florida Panhandle. There may be enough instability for an isolated severe weather threat to persist for a few hours after 12Z, but it is currently unclear where exactly this line of storms will be located at that time. Therefore, no marginal risk will be added this time, but one may be needed if the threat does indeed appear to persist after 12Z and once the exact area of this threat becomes more clear. Farther west, cooling air aloft as a mid-level trough approaches the California coast will result in elevated instability and lightning off the coast and into north-central California. ..Bentley.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible early Thursday morning into perhaps the afternoon in parts of the Southeast. Additional thunderstorms may occur in coastal central California and parts of the Sacramento Valley. Severe weather potential currently appears low. ...Synopsis... A strong surface low will deepen across the Northeast early Thursday with a cold front extending along the Appalachians and into the Southeast. An area of high pressure will build into the Plains in the wake of this system with another strong surface low approaching the West Coast. ...Southeast... A line of storms will be ongoing at the beginning of the period from the southern Appalachians to the Florida Panhandle. There may be enough instability for an isolated severe weather threat to persist for a few hours after 12Z, but it is currently unclear where exactly this line of storms will be located at that time. Therefore, no marginal risk will be added this time, but one may be needed if the threat does indeed appear to persist after 12Z and once the exact area of this threat becomes more clear. Farther west, cooling air aloft as a mid-level trough approaches the California coast will result in elevated instability and lightning off the coast and into north-central California. ..Bentley.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible early Thursday morning into perhaps the afternoon in parts of the Southeast. Additional thunderstorms may occur in coastal central California and parts of the Sacramento Valley. Severe weather potential currently appears low. ...Synopsis... A strong surface low will deepen across the Northeast early Thursday with a cold front extending along the Appalachians and into the Southeast. An area of high pressure will build into the Plains in the wake of this system with another strong surface low approaching the West Coast. ...Southeast... A line of storms will be ongoing at the beginning of the period from the southern Appalachians to the Florida Panhandle. There may be enough instability for an isolated severe weather threat to persist for a few hours after 12Z, but it is currently unclear where exactly this line of storms will be located at that time. Therefore, no marginal risk will be added this time, but one may be needed if the threat does indeed appear to persist after 12Z and once the exact area of this threat becomes more clear. Farther west, cooling air aloft as a mid-level trough approaches the California coast will result in elevated instability and lightning off the coast and into north-central California. ..Bentley.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS... A few minor changes were made to the Elevated and Critical areas for Wednesday. Although sustained wind speeds are expected to exceed critical thresholds across portions of the Upper Trans-Pecos and Guadalupe Mountains (20 to 40 mph respectively), relative humidity should generally remain near 25-35 percent. Therefore, the Critical area was trimmed back slightly from its northwestern extent. To the east across portions the Permian Basin, westerly winds exceeding 20 mph will combine with decreasing RH into the teens by Wednesday afternoon. The Elevated area was extended eastward to accommodate these aforementioned conditions, although recent rainfall, less receptive fuels, and good RH recovery further east and south of here should limit the overall fire weather potential. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 02/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... An amplified midlevel trough accompanied by strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies/Plains. At the same time, a related surface low will linger over the southern High Plains ahead of an approaching cold front. ...TX Trans-Pecos... A modest pressure gradient peripheral to the surface low, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will favor 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) across southern NM into west TX. Over the TX Trans-Pecos, these winds will combine with 15 percent afternoon RH, and given at least modestly receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy conditions will extend farther east into portions of central TX, though preceding rainfall atop already marginal fuels should limit fire-weather concerns here. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS... A few minor changes were made to the Elevated and Critical areas for Wednesday. Although sustained wind speeds are expected to exceed critical thresholds across portions of the Upper Trans-Pecos and Guadalupe Mountains (20 to 40 mph respectively), relative humidity should generally remain near 25-35 percent. Therefore, the Critical area was trimmed back slightly from its northwestern extent. To the east across portions the Permian Basin, westerly winds exceeding 20 mph will combine with decreasing RH into the teens by Wednesday afternoon. The Elevated area was extended eastward to accommodate these aforementioned conditions, although recent rainfall, less receptive fuels, and good RH recovery further east and south of here should limit the overall fire weather potential. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 02/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... An amplified midlevel trough accompanied by strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies/Plains. At the same time, a related surface low will linger over the southern High Plains ahead of an approaching cold front. ...TX Trans-Pecos... A modest pressure gradient peripheral to the surface low, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will favor 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) across southern NM into west TX. Over the TX Trans-Pecos, these winds will combine with 15 percent afternoon RH, and given at least modestly receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy conditions will extend farther east into portions of central TX, though preceding rainfall atop already marginal fuels should limit fire-weather concerns here. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS... A few minor changes were made to the Elevated and Critical areas for Wednesday. Although sustained wind speeds are expected to exceed critical thresholds across portions of the Upper Trans-Pecos and Guadalupe Mountains (20 to 40 mph respectively), relative humidity should generally remain near 25-35 percent. Therefore, the Critical area was trimmed back slightly from its northwestern extent. To the east across portions the Permian Basin, westerly winds exceeding 20 mph will combine with decreasing RH into the teens by Wednesday afternoon. The Elevated area was extended eastward to accommodate these aforementioned conditions, although recent rainfall, less receptive fuels, and good RH recovery further east and south of here should limit the overall fire weather potential. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 02/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... An amplified midlevel trough accompanied by strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies/Plains. At the same time, a related surface low will linger over the southern High Plains ahead of an approaching cold front. ...TX Trans-Pecos... A modest pressure gradient peripheral to the surface low, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will favor 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) across southern NM into west TX. Over the TX Trans-Pecos, these winds will combine with 15 percent afternoon RH, and given at least modestly receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy conditions will extend farther east into portions of central TX, though preceding rainfall atop already marginal fuels should limit fire-weather concerns here. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS... A few minor changes were made to the Elevated and Critical areas for Wednesday. Although sustained wind speeds are expected to exceed critical thresholds across portions of the Upper Trans-Pecos and Guadalupe Mountains (20 to 40 mph respectively), relative humidity should generally remain near 25-35 percent. Therefore, the Critical area was trimmed back slightly from its northwestern extent. To the east across portions the Permian Basin, westerly winds exceeding 20 mph will combine with decreasing RH into the teens by Wednesday afternoon. The Elevated area was extended eastward to accommodate these aforementioned conditions, although recent rainfall, less receptive fuels, and good RH recovery further east and south of here should limit the overall fire weather potential. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 02/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... An amplified midlevel trough accompanied by strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies/Plains. At the same time, a related surface low will linger over the southern High Plains ahead of an approaching cold front. ...TX Trans-Pecos... A modest pressure gradient peripheral to the surface low, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will favor 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) across southern NM into west TX. Over the TX Trans-Pecos, these winds will combine with 15 percent afternoon RH, and given at least modestly receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy conditions will extend farther east into portions of central TX, though preceding rainfall atop already marginal fuels should limit fire-weather concerns here. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS... A few minor changes were made to the Elevated and Critical areas for Wednesday. Although sustained wind speeds are expected to exceed critical thresholds across portions of the Upper Trans-Pecos and Guadalupe Mountains (20 to 40 mph respectively), relative humidity should generally remain near 25-35 percent. Therefore, the Critical area was trimmed back slightly from its northwestern extent. To the east across portions the Permian Basin, westerly winds exceeding 20 mph will combine with decreasing RH into the teens by Wednesday afternoon. The Elevated area was extended eastward to accommodate these aforementioned conditions, although recent rainfall, less receptive fuels, and good RH recovery further east and south of here should limit the overall fire weather potential. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 02/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... An amplified midlevel trough accompanied by strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies/Plains. At the same time, a related surface low will linger over the southern High Plains ahead of an approaching cold front. ...TX Trans-Pecos... A modest pressure gradient peripheral to the surface low, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will favor 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) across southern NM into west TX. Over the TX Trans-Pecos, these winds will combine with 15 percent afternoon RH, and given at least modestly receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy conditions will extend farther east into portions of central TX, though preceding rainfall atop already marginal fuels should limit fire-weather concerns here. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS... A few minor changes were made to the Elevated and Critical areas for Wednesday. Although sustained wind speeds are expected to exceed critical thresholds across portions of the Upper Trans-Pecos and Guadalupe Mountains (20 to 40 mph respectively), relative humidity should generally remain near 25-35 percent. Therefore, the Critical area was trimmed back slightly from its northwestern extent. To the east across portions the Permian Basin, westerly winds exceeding 20 mph will combine with decreasing RH into the teens by Wednesday afternoon. The Elevated area was extended eastward to accommodate these aforementioned conditions, although recent rainfall, less receptive fuels, and good RH recovery further east and south of here should limit the overall fire weather potential. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 02/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... An amplified midlevel trough accompanied by strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies/Plains. At the same time, a related surface low will linger over the southern High Plains ahead of an approaching cold front. ...TX Trans-Pecos... A modest pressure gradient peripheral to the surface low, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will favor 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) across southern NM into west TX. Over the TX Trans-Pecos, these winds will combine with 15 percent afternoon RH, and given at least modestly receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy conditions will extend farther east into portions of central TX, though preceding rainfall atop already marginal fuels should limit fire-weather concerns here. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS... A few minor changes were made to the Elevated and Critical areas for Wednesday. Although sustained wind speeds are expected to exceed critical thresholds across portions of the Upper Trans-Pecos and Guadalupe Mountains (20 to 40 mph respectively), relative humidity should generally remain near 25-35 percent. Therefore, the Critical area was trimmed back slightly from its northwestern extent. To the east across portions the Permian Basin, westerly winds exceeding 20 mph will combine with decreasing RH into the teens by Wednesday afternoon. The Elevated area was extended eastward to accommodate these aforementioned conditions, although recent rainfall, less receptive fuels, and good RH recovery further east and south of here should limit the overall fire weather potential. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 02/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... An amplified midlevel trough accompanied by strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies/Plains. At the same time, a related surface low will linger over the southern High Plains ahead of an approaching cold front. ...TX Trans-Pecos... A modest pressure gradient peripheral to the surface low, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will favor 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) across southern NM into west TX. Over the TX Trans-Pecos, these winds will combine with 15 percent afternoon RH, and given at least modestly receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy conditions will extend farther east into portions of central TX, though preceding rainfall atop already marginal fuels should limit fire-weather concerns here. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night from the Sabine Valley vicinity into far western Georgia. ...Synopsis... A broad trough with multiple embedded mid-level vorticity maxima will become more consolidated with a 125 knot mid-level jet streak over the Lower Ohio River Valley by 12Z Thursday. At the surface, a weak low will move along a frontal zone from West Texas to the Ohio Valley and then deepen into the eastern Great Lakes between 06Z and 12Z Thursday. A broad warm sector will be in place along the Gulf Coast states and will attempt to progress inland, but extensive precipitation within a warm air advection zone from northern Louisiana to northern Georgia will stunt its northward progress. ...Southeast... There is a consistent signal among 12Z CAM guidance for a line of storms to either develop south of or emanate from an expansive area of precipitation across Louisiana tomorrow morning. There will be a period of time during the afternoon when this line of storms may have sufficient instability (amid a strongly sheared environment) to support a damaging wind threat and tornado threat, particularly with any embedded supercells). However, by late afternoon/evening this line of storms will weaken as it moves east of the better instability. An additional severe weather threat will evolve from the late afternoon into the overnight hours as the surface front surges southeast and the low-level jet strengthens. This threat will begin across eastern Louisiana. Earlier in the afternoon, winds will be veered across this region, but as the front sharpens and the low-level jet strengthens, winds are expected to back somewhat which will increase low-level convergence along the front and strengthen low-level shear. The southeastward acceleration of the surface front may eventually outrun the line of storms given the mean storm motion vector, however, 12Z guidance has indicated a greater threat for a pre-frontal band of supercells after 06Z across southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. This scenario seems reasonable given the stronger low-level jet forecast between 06Z and 12Z and also based on current (17Z) surface observations showing dewpoints 2 to 3 F greater than most guidance today. A pre-frontal band of supercells would continue the severe weather threat, including the tornado threat, through the entire overnight period. The slight risk has been expanded south and east to address this concern. ..Bentley.. 02/11/2025 Read more