Aggregator

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible early Thursday morning in parts of the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwest Georgia. Damaging winds and brief tornado or two are the primary threats. ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level trough and associated strong jet streak will move through the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic/New England through the day on Thursday. Strong flow will extend southward into the Southeast and North Florida. In California, a strong upper trough will impact the northern/central coast late in the period. A cold front is forecast to be near the Alabama/Georgia border in the morning and move eastward and offshore by the afternoon. A few thunderstorms may occur in the southern Appalachians/Piedmont before weakening as they encounter less stable air to the east. Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible in portions of northern/central California as strong forcing and cold temperatures aloft move inland. Severe weather is not expected in either area. ...Florida Panhandle and adjacent Alabama/Georgia... A line of convection is expected to be ongoing Thursday morning from the Florida Panhandle into southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia. Waning instability should generally limit the overall strength of the line and low-level wind fields will be weakening with time as well. However, at least a few hours of strong to marginally severe storms are possible. Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado or two are the expected hazards. There is some uncertainty as to where the line of convection will be. The current probabilities attempt to capture the envelope of model solutions. Adjustments will likely occur as confidence increases in placement. ..Wendt.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible early Thursday morning in parts of the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwest Georgia. Damaging winds and brief tornado or two are the primary threats. ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level trough and associated strong jet streak will move through the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic/New England through the day on Thursday. Strong flow will extend southward into the Southeast and North Florida. In California, a strong upper trough will impact the northern/central coast late in the period. A cold front is forecast to be near the Alabama/Georgia border in the morning and move eastward and offshore by the afternoon. A few thunderstorms may occur in the southern Appalachians/Piedmont before weakening as they encounter less stable air to the east. Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible in portions of northern/central California as strong forcing and cold temperatures aloft move inland. Severe weather is not expected in either area. ...Florida Panhandle and adjacent Alabama/Georgia... A line of convection is expected to be ongoing Thursday morning from the Florida Panhandle into southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia. Waning instability should generally limit the overall strength of the line and low-level wind fields will be weakening with time as well. However, at least a few hours of strong to marginally severe storms are possible. Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado or two are the expected hazards. There is some uncertainty as to where the line of convection will be. The current probabilities attempt to capture the envelope of model solutions. Adjustments will likely occur as confidence increases in placement. ..Wendt.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible early Thursday morning in parts of the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwest Georgia. Damaging winds and brief tornado or two are the primary threats. ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level trough and associated strong jet streak will move through the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic/New England through the day on Thursday. Strong flow will extend southward into the Southeast and North Florida. In California, a strong upper trough will impact the northern/central coast late in the period. A cold front is forecast to be near the Alabama/Georgia border in the morning and move eastward and offshore by the afternoon. A few thunderstorms may occur in the southern Appalachians/Piedmont before weakening as they encounter less stable air to the east. Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible in portions of northern/central California as strong forcing and cold temperatures aloft move inland. Severe weather is not expected in either area. ...Florida Panhandle and adjacent Alabama/Georgia... A line of convection is expected to be ongoing Thursday morning from the Florida Panhandle into southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia. Waning instability should generally limit the overall strength of the line and low-level wind fields will be weakening with time as well. However, at least a few hours of strong to marginally severe storms are possible. Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado or two are the expected hazards. There is some uncertainty as to where the line of convection will be. The current probabilities attempt to capture the envelope of model solutions. Adjustments will likely occur as confidence increases in placement. ..Wendt.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible early Thursday morning in parts of the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwest Georgia. Damaging winds and brief tornado or two are the primary threats. ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level trough and associated strong jet streak will move through the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic/New England through the day on Thursday. Strong flow will extend southward into the Southeast and North Florida. In California, a strong upper trough will impact the northern/central coast late in the period. A cold front is forecast to be near the Alabama/Georgia border in the morning and move eastward and offshore by the afternoon. A few thunderstorms may occur in the southern Appalachians/Piedmont before weakening as they encounter less stable air to the east. Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible in portions of northern/central California as strong forcing and cold temperatures aloft move inland. Severe weather is not expected in either area. ...Florida Panhandle and adjacent Alabama/Georgia... A line of convection is expected to be ongoing Thursday morning from the Florida Panhandle into southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia. Waning instability should generally limit the overall strength of the line and low-level wind fields will be weakening with time as well. However, at least a few hours of strong to marginally severe storms are possible. Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado or two are the expected hazards. There is some uncertainty as to where the line of convection will be. The current probabilities attempt to capture the envelope of model solutions. Adjustments will likely occur as confidence increases in placement. ..Wendt.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible early Thursday morning in parts of the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwest Georgia. Damaging winds and brief tornado or two are the primary threats. ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level trough and associated strong jet streak will move through the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic/New England through the day on Thursday. Strong flow will extend southward into the Southeast and North Florida. In California, a strong upper trough will impact the northern/central coast late in the period. A cold front is forecast to be near the Alabama/Georgia border in the morning and move eastward and offshore by the afternoon. A few thunderstorms may occur in the southern Appalachians/Piedmont before weakening as they encounter less stable air to the east. Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible in portions of northern/central California as strong forcing and cold temperatures aloft move inland. Severe weather is not expected in either area. ...Florida Panhandle and adjacent Alabama/Georgia... A line of convection is expected to be ongoing Thursday morning from the Florida Panhandle into southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia. Waning instability should generally limit the overall strength of the line and low-level wind fields will be weakening with time as well. However, at least a few hours of strong to marginally severe storms are possible. Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado or two are the expected hazards. There is some uncertainty as to where the line of convection will be. The current probabilities attempt to capture the envelope of model solutions. Adjustments will likely occur as confidence increases in placement. ..Wendt.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible early Thursday morning in parts of the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwest Georgia. Damaging winds and brief tornado or two are the primary threats. ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level trough and associated strong jet streak will move through the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic/New England through the day on Thursday. Strong flow will extend southward into the Southeast and North Florida. In California, a strong upper trough will impact the northern/central coast late in the period. A cold front is forecast to be near the Alabama/Georgia border in the morning and move eastward and offshore by the afternoon. A few thunderstorms may occur in the southern Appalachians/Piedmont before weakening as they encounter less stable air to the east. Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible in portions of northern/central California as strong forcing and cold temperatures aloft move inland. Severe weather is not expected in either area. ...Florida Panhandle and adjacent Alabama/Georgia... A line of convection is expected to be ongoing Thursday morning from the Florida Panhandle into southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia. Waning instability should generally limit the overall strength of the line and low-level wind fields will be weakening with time as well. However, at least a few hours of strong to marginally severe storms are possible. Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado or two are the expected hazards. There is some uncertainty as to where the line of convection will be. The current probabilities attempt to capture the envelope of model solutions. Adjustments will likely occur as confidence increases in placement. ..Wendt.. 02/12/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Feb 12 06:40:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INTO WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible this afternoon through late tonight over the central Gulf Coast states and eventually into far western Georgia. The risk for a few tornadoes and scattered damaging gusts will be the primary concerns. ...Central Gulf Coast states into GA... A mid-level shortwave trough initially over east TX this morning will quickly move east-northeast into the southern Appalachians and weaken through the late afternoon/early evening. Amplification of a larger scale mid-level trough will occur over the central U.S. during the period as a 500-mb jet streak strengthens to 110 kt by early Thursday morning over the lower OH Valley. In the low levels, a convectively augmented frontal zone will initially be draped from the upper TX coast eastward along the coastal plain of the central Gulf Coast. Model guidance indicates the early morning shower/thunderstorm activity near the Sabine River will move east-northeast across the lower MS Valley and into AL during midday into the afternoon. A risk for stronger storms will probably coincide with the southern portion of this convective cluster on the northern fringe of appreciable buoyancy closer to the coast. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the northward penetration of a warm sector into central AL as the boundary advances northward as a warm front. As a result, the northern portion of the Slight Risk across central AL is accompanied by a significant spread of varying model solutions (e.g., 00z NAM/NSSL favoring more north and unstable warm sector vs. a multitude of other model depictions). Nonetheless, it seems plausible that diurnal destabilization along the Gulf Coast will aid in the potential for isolated storm development away/south of the frontal zone across LA/MS/AL. Forecast soundings generally show 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE with moist boundary layer air and enlarged hodographs. This likely environment --caveats in terms northward extent-- will support organized storms. One potential scenario is a relatively narrow/focused corridor for supercells, both ahead and embedded within the main convective band, from near the southwest AL/southeast MS vicinity east-northeast across south-central AL. Confidence in a greater risk for tornadoes remains uncertain but will be reassessed in later outlooks. During the evening, the severe threat will gradually shift from west to east across MS into mainly AL as the wind profile strengthens. It seems a risk for severe will probably spread east into the FL Panhandle and western GA during the overnight in the low CAPE/high shear regime. ..Smith/Weinman.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INTO WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible this afternoon through late tonight over the central Gulf Coast states and eventually into far western Georgia. The risk for a few tornadoes and scattered damaging gusts will be the primary concerns. ...Central Gulf Coast states into GA... A mid-level shortwave trough initially over east TX this morning will quickly move east-northeast into the southern Appalachians and weaken through the late afternoon/early evening. Amplification of a larger scale mid-level trough will occur over the central U.S. during the period as a 500-mb jet streak strengthens to 110 kt by early Thursday morning over the lower OH Valley. In the low levels, a convectively augmented frontal zone will initially be draped from the upper TX coast eastward along the coastal plain of the central Gulf Coast. Model guidance indicates the early morning shower/thunderstorm activity near the Sabine River will move east-northeast across the lower MS Valley and into AL during midday into the afternoon. A risk for stronger storms will probably coincide with the southern portion of this convective cluster on the northern fringe of appreciable buoyancy closer to the coast. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the northward penetration of a warm sector into central AL as the boundary advances northward as a warm front. As a result, the northern portion of the Slight Risk across central AL is accompanied by a significant spread of varying model solutions (e.g., 00z NAM/NSSL favoring more north and unstable warm sector vs. a multitude of other model depictions). Nonetheless, it seems plausible that diurnal destabilization along the Gulf Coast will aid in the potential for isolated storm development away/south of the frontal zone across LA/MS/AL. Forecast soundings generally show 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE with moist boundary layer air and enlarged hodographs. This likely environment --caveats in terms northward extent-- will support organized storms. One potential scenario is a relatively narrow/focused corridor for supercells, both ahead and embedded within the main convective band, from near the southwest AL/southeast MS vicinity east-northeast across south-central AL. Confidence in a greater risk for tornadoes remains uncertain but will be reassessed in later outlooks. During the evening, the severe threat will gradually shift from west to east across MS into mainly AL as the wind profile strengthens. It seems a risk for severe will probably spread east into the FL Panhandle and western GA during the overnight in the low CAPE/high shear regime. ..Smith/Weinman.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INTO WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible this afternoon through late tonight over the central Gulf Coast states and eventually into far western Georgia. The risk for a few tornadoes and scattered damaging gusts will be the primary concerns. ...Central Gulf Coast states into GA... A mid-level shortwave trough initially over east TX this morning will quickly move east-northeast into the southern Appalachians and weaken through the late afternoon/early evening. Amplification of a larger scale mid-level trough will occur over the central U.S. during the period as a 500-mb jet streak strengthens to 110 kt by early Thursday morning over the lower OH Valley. In the low levels, a convectively augmented frontal zone will initially be draped from the upper TX coast eastward along the coastal plain of the central Gulf Coast. Model guidance indicates the early morning shower/thunderstorm activity near the Sabine River will move east-northeast across the lower MS Valley and into AL during midday into the afternoon. A risk for stronger storms will probably coincide with the southern portion of this convective cluster on the northern fringe of appreciable buoyancy closer to the coast. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the northward penetration of a warm sector into central AL as the boundary advances northward as a warm front. As a result, the northern portion of the Slight Risk across central AL is accompanied by a significant spread of varying model solutions (e.g., 00z NAM/NSSL favoring more north and unstable warm sector vs. a multitude of other model depictions). Nonetheless, it seems plausible that diurnal destabilization along the Gulf Coast will aid in the potential for isolated storm development away/south of the frontal zone across LA/MS/AL. Forecast soundings generally show 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE with moist boundary layer air and enlarged hodographs. This likely environment --caveats in terms northward extent-- will support organized storms. One potential scenario is a relatively narrow/focused corridor for supercells, both ahead and embedded within the main convective band, from near the southwest AL/southeast MS vicinity east-northeast across south-central AL. Confidence in a greater risk for tornadoes remains uncertain but will be reassessed in later outlooks. During the evening, the severe threat will gradually shift from west to east across MS into mainly AL as the wind profile strengthens. It seems a risk for severe will probably spread east into the FL Panhandle and western GA during the overnight in the low CAPE/high shear regime. ..Smith/Weinman.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INTO WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible this afternoon through late tonight over the central Gulf Coast states and eventually into far western Georgia. The risk for a few tornadoes and scattered damaging gusts will be the primary concerns. ...Central Gulf Coast states into GA... A mid-level shortwave trough initially over east TX this morning will quickly move east-northeast into the southern Appalachians and weaken through the late afternoon/early evening. Amplification of a larger scale mid-level trough will occur over the central U.S. during the period as a 500-mb jet streak strengthens to 110 kt by early Thursday morning over the lower OH Valley. In the low levels, a convectively augmented frontal zone will initially be draped from the upper TX coast eastward along the coastal plain of the central Gulf Coast. Model guidance indicates the early morning shower/thunderstorm activity near the Sabine River will move east-northeast across the lower MS Valley and into AL during midday into the afternoon. A risk for stronger storms will probably coincide with the southern portion of this convective cluster on the northern fringe of appreciable buoyancy closer to the coast. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the northward penetration of a warm sector into central AL as the boundary advances northward as a warm front. As a result, the northern portion of the Slight Risk across central AL is accompanied by a significant spread of varying model solutions (e.g., 00z NAM/NSSL favoring more north and unstable warm sector vs. a multitude of other model depictions). Nonetheless, it seems plausible that diurnal destabilization along the Gulf Coast will aid in the potential for isolated storm development away/south of the frontal zone across LA/MS/AL. Forecast soundings generally show 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE with moist boundary layer air and enlarged hodographs. This likely environment --caveats in terms northward extent-- will support organized storms. One potential scenario is a relatively narrow/focused corridor for supercells, both ahead and embedded within the main convective band, from near the southwest AL/southeast MS vicinity east-northeast across south-central AL. Confidence in a greater risk for tornadoes remains uncertain but will be reassessed in later outlooks. During the evening, the severe threat will gradually shift from west to east across MS into mainly AL as the wind profile strengthens. It seems a risk for severe will probably spread east into the FL Panhandle and western GA during the overnight in the low CAPE/high shear regime. ..Smith/Weinman.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INTO WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible this afternoon through late tonight over the central Gulf Coast states and eventually into far western Georgia. The risk for a few tornadoes and scattered damaging gusts will be the primary concerns. ...Central Gulf Coast states into GA... A mid-level shortwave trough initially over east TX this morning will quickly move east-northeast into the southern Appalachians and weaken through the late afternoon/early evening. Amplification of a larger scale mid-level trough will occur over the central U.S. during the period as a 500-mb jet streak strengthens to 110 kt by early Thursday morning over the lower OH Valley. In the low levels, a convectively augmented frontal zone will initially be draped from the upper TX coast eastward along the coastal plain of the central Gulf Coast. Model guidance indicates the early morning shower/thunderstorm activity near the Sabine River will move east-northeast across the lower MS Valley and into AL during midday into the afternoon. A risk for stronger storms will probably coincide with the southern portion of this convective cluster on the northern fringe of appreciable buoyancy closer to the coast. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the northward penetration of a warm sector into central AL as the boundary advances northward as a warm front. As a result, the northern portion of the Slight Risk across central AL is accompanied by a significant spread of varying model solutions (e.g., 00z NAM/NSSL favoring more north and unstable warm sector vs. a multitude of other model depictions). Nonetheless, it seems plausible that diurnal destabilization along the Gulf Coast will aid in the potential for isolated storm development away/south of the frontal zone across LA/MS/AL. Forecast soundings generally show 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE with moist boundary layer air and enlarged hodographs. This likely environment --caveats in terms northward extent-- will support organized storms. One potential scenario is a relatively narrow/focused corridor for supercells, both ahead and embedded within the main convective band, from near the southwest AL/southeast MS vicinity east-northeast across south-central AL. Confidence in a greater risk for tornadoes remains uncertain but will be reassessed in later outlooks. During the evening, the severe threat will gradually shift from west to east across MS into mainly AL as the wind profile strengthens. It seems a risk for severe will probably spread east into the FL Panhandle and western GA during the overnight in the low CAPE/high shear regime. ..Smith/Weinman.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INTO WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible this afternoon through late tonight over the central Gulf Coast states and eventually into far western Georgia. The risk for a few tornadoes and scattered damaging gusts will be the primary concerns. ...Central Gulf Coast states into GA... A mid-level shortwave trough initially over east TX this morning will quickly move east-northeast into the southern Appalachians and weaken through the late afternoon/early evening. Amplification of a larger scale mid-level trough will occur over the central U.S. during the period as a 500-mb jet streak strengthens to 110 kt by early Thursday morning over the lower OH Valley. In the low levels, a convectively augmented frontal zone will initially be draped from the upper TX coast eastward along the coastal plain of the central Gulf Coast. Model guidance indicates the early morning shower/thunderstorm activity near the Sabine River will move east-northeast across the lower MS Valley and into AL during midday into the afternoon. A risk for stronger storms will probably coincide with the southern portion of this convective cluster on the northern fringe of appreciable buoyancy closer to the coast. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the northward penetration of a warm sector into central AL as the boundary advances northward as a warm front. As a result, the northern portion of the Slight Risk across central AL is accompanied by a significant spread of varying model solutions (e.g., 00z NAM/NSSL favoring more north and unstable warm sector vs. a multitude of other model depictions). Nonetheless, it seems plausible that diurnal destabilization along the Gulf Coast will aid in the potential for isolated storm development away/south of the frontal zone across LA/MS/AL. Forecast soundings generally show 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE with moist boundary layer air and enlarged hodographs. This likely environment --caveats in terms northward extent-- will support organized storms. One potential scenario is a relatively narrow/focused corridor for supercells, both ahead and embedded within the main convective band, from near the southwest AL/southeast MS vicinity east-northeast across south-central AL. Confidence in a greater risk for tornadoes remains uncertain but will be reassessed in later outlooks. During the evening, the severe threat will gradually shift from west to east across MS into mainly AL as the wind profile strengthens. It seems a risk for severe will probably spread east into the FL Panhandle and western GA during the overnight in the low CAPE/high shear regime. ..Smith/Weinman.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INTO WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible this afternoon through late tonight over the central Gulf Coast states and eventually into far western Georgia. The risk for a few tornadoes and scattered damaging gusts will be the primary concerns. ...Central Gulf Coast states into GA... A mid-level shortwave trough initially over east TX this morning will quickly move east-northeast into the southern Appalachians and weaken through the late afternoon/early evening. Amplification of a larger scale mid-level trough will occur over the central U.S. during the period as a 500-mb jet streak strengthens to 110 kt by early Thursday morning over the lower OH Valley. In the low levels, a convectively augmented frontal zone will initially be draped from the upper TX coast eastward along the coastal plain of the central Gulf Coast. Model guidance indicates the early morning shower/thunderstorm activity near the Sabine River will move east-northeast across the lower MS Valley and into AL during midday into the afternoon. A risk for stronger storms will probably coincide with the southern portion of this convective cluster on the northern fringe of appreciable buoyancy closer to the coast. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the northward penetration of a warm sector into central AL as the boundary advances northward as a warm front. As a result, the northern portion of the Slight Risk across central AL is accompanied by a significant spread of varying model solutions (e.g., 00z NAM/NSSL favoring more north and unstable warm sector vs. a multitude of other model depictions). Nonetheless, it seems plausible that diurnal destabilization along the Gulf Coast will aid in the potential for isolated storm development away/south of the frontal zone across LA/MS/AL. Forecast soundings generally show 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE with moist boundary layer air and enlarged hodographs. This likely environment --caveats in terms northward extent-- will support organized storms. One potential scenario is a relatively narrow/focused corridor for supercells, both ahead and embedded within the main convective band, from near the southwest AL/southeast MS vicinity east-northeast across south-central AL. Confidence in a greater risk for tornadoes remains uncertain but will be reassessed in later outlooks. During the evening, the severe threat will gradually shift from west to east across MS into mainly AL as the wind profile strengthens. It seems a risk for severe will probably spread east into the FL Panhandle and western GA during the overnight in the low CAPE/high shear regime. ..Smith/Weinman.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INTO WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible this afternoon through late tonight over the central Gulf Coast states and eventually into far western Georgia. The risk for a few tornadoes and scattered damaging gusts will be the primary concerns. ...Central Gulf Coast states into GA... A mid-level shortwave trough initially over east TX this morning will quickly move east-northeast into the southern Appalachians and weaken through the late afternoon/early evening. Amplification of a larger scale mid-level trough will occur over the central U.S. during the period as a 500-mb jet streak strengthens to 110 kt by early Thursday morning over the lower OH Valley. In the low levels, a convectively augmented frontal zone will initially be draped from the upper TX coast eastward along the coastal plain of the central Gulf Coast. Model guidance indicates the early morning shower/thunderstorm activity near the Sabine River will move east-northeast across the lower MS Valley and into AL during midday into the afternoon. A risk for stronger storms will probably coincide with the southern portion of this convective cluster on the northern fringe of appreciable buoyancy closer to the coast. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the northward penetration of a warm sector into central AL as the boundary advances northward as a warm front. As a result, the northern portion of the Slight Risk across central AL is accompanied by a significant spread of varying model solutions (e.g., 00z NAM/NSSL favoring more north and unstable warm sector vs. a multitude of other model depictions). Nonetheless, it seems plausible that diurnal destabilization along the Gulf Coast will aid in the potential for isolated storm development away/south of the frontal zone across LA/MS/AL. Forecast soundings generally show 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE with moist boundary layer air and enlarged hodographs. This likely environment --caveats in terms northward extent-- will support organized storms. One potential scenario is a relatively narrow/focused corridor for supercells, both ahead and embedded within the main convective band, from near the southwest AL/southeast MS vicinity east-northeast across south-central AL. Confidence in a greater risk for tornadoes remains uncertain but will be reassessed in later outlooks. During the evening, the severe threat will gradually shift from west to east across MS into mainly AL as the wind profile strengthens. It seems a risk for severe will probably spread east into the FL Panhandle and western GA during the overnight in the low CAPE/high shear regime. ..Smith/Weinman.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INTO WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible this afternoon through late tonight over the central Gulf Coast states and eventually into far western Georgia. The risk for a few tornadoes and scattered damaging gusts will be the primary concerns. ...Central Gulf Coast states into GA... A mid-level shortwave trough initially over east TX this morning will quickly move east-northeast into the southern Appalachians and weaken through the late afternoon/early evening. Amplification of a larger scale mid-level trough will occur over the central U.S. during the period as a 500-mb jet streak strengthens to 110 kt by early Thursday morning over the lower OH Valley. In the low levels, a convectively augmented frontal zone will initially be draped from the upper TX coast eastward along the coastal plain of the central Gulf Coast. Model guidance indicates the early morning shower/thunderstorm activity near the Sabine River will move east-northeast across the lower MS Valley and into AL during midday into the afternoon. A risk for stronger storms will probably coincide with the southern portion of this convective cluster on the northern fringe of appreciable buoyancy closer to the coast. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the northward penetration of a warm sector into central AL as the boundary advances northward as a warm front. As a result, the northern portion of the Slight Risk across central AL is accompanied by a significant spread of varying model solutions (e.g., 00z NAM/NSSL favoring more north and unstable warm sector vs. a multitude of other model depictions). Nonetheless, it seems plausible that diurnal destabilization along the Gulf Coast will aid in the potential for isolated storm development away/south of the frontal zone across LA/MS/AL. Forecast soundings generally show 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE with moist boundary layer air and enlarged hodographs. This likely environment --caveats in terms northward extent-- will support organized storms. One potential scenario is a relatively narrow/focused corridor for supercells, both ahead and embedded within the main convective band, from near the southwest AL/southeast MS vicinity east-northeast across south-central AL. Confidence in a greater risk for tornadoes remains uncertain but will be reassessed in later outlooks. During the evening, the severe threat will gradually shift from west to east across MS into mainly AL as the wind profile strengthens. It seems a risk for severe will probably spread east into the FL Panhandle and western GA during the overnight in the low CAPE/high shear regime. ..Smith/Weinman.. 02/12/2025 Read more

January runoff in the Missouri River Basin above Sioux City was 0.7 million acre-feet, which is 92% of average. Runoff was near or below average for most of the Missouri River Basin as precipitation was below normal for most of the upper basin. “Runoff into the reservoir system was below average for the month of January and conditions across the basin remain dry,” said John Remus, chief of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ Missouri River Basin Water Management Division. “With the below-average plains and mountain snowpack we are forecasting a below-average runoff year for the basin.” Releases from Gavins Point Dam were 14,000 cubic feet per second and will remain low during February to continue to conserve water in the System, based on the guidance in the Missouri River Mainstem System Master Manual. US Army Corps of Engineers, Northwest Division, Feb 6, 2025

A burn ban took effect for Hendry County due to dry weather. Sarasota County officials also adopted a burn ban as the Keetch-Byram Drought Index met or exceeded 500. All outdoor burning was prohibited unless a permit was issued and was applicable for unincorporated parts of Sarasota County and the City of Sarasota. WGCU 90.1 FM Fort Myers (Fla.), Feb 6, 2025

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND FAR WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from south Texas into parts of the Texas-Louisiana border vicinity through tonight. ...TX into LA... Early evening surface analysis places a front across south Texas into the coastal shelf waters south of Galveston Bay and into south-central LA. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving quickly east across northwestern Mexico and through the base of a larger scale trough over western North America. This mid-level disturbance is forecast to move into central TX by 12/09z and east TX by mid morning tomorrow. A corresponding intensification of flow fields and QG ascent is expected late tonight across south TX and eventually near the Sabine Valley towards 12/12z. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (reference 7.3 deg C/km on the 12/00z Corpus Christi, TX upper-air sounding) and ample moisture will facilitate storm development later tonight. Model guidance shows showers and thunderstorms beginning initially near the Rio Grande and spreading east while increasing in coverage. A few of the stronger storms may exhibit rotation and perhaps yield an isolated risk for hail/wind. Elsewhere, the northeast extent of the TX frontal zone is located over the central Gulf Coast this evening. The gradual diminishing of instability and convergence with the front will likely promote continued weakening of convection this evening from the central Gulf Coast into central AL. Have removed low-severe probabilities to account for this observed and likely continuation of storm weakening in the short term. ..Smith.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND FAR WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from south Texas into parts of the Texas-Louisiana border vicinity through tonight. ...TX into LA... Early evening surface analysis places a front across south Texas into the coastal shelf waters south of Galveston Bay and into south-central LA. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving quickly east across northwestern Mexico and through the base of a larger scale trough over western North America. This mid-level disturbance is forecast to move into central TX by 12/09z and east TX by mid morning tomorrow. A corresponding intensification of flow fields and QG ascent is expected late tonight across south TX and eventually near the Sabine Valley towards 12/12z. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (reference 7.3 deg C/km on the 12/00z Corpus Christi, TX upper-air sounding) and ample moisture will facilitate storm development later tonight. Model guidance shows showers and thunderstorms beginning initially near the Rio Grande and spreading east while increasing in coverage. A few of the stronger storms may exhibit rotation and perhaps yield an isolated risk for hail/wind. Elsewhere, the northeast extent of the TX frontal zone is located over the central Gulf Coast this evening. The gradual diminishing of instability and convergence with the front will likely promote continued weakening of convection this evening from the central Gulf Coast into central AL. Have removed low-severe probabilities to account for this observed and likely continuation of storm weakening in the short term. ..Smith.. 02/12/2025 Read more