8 months 3 weeks ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 22 Oct 2024 14:57:13 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Oct 2024 15:23:10 GMT
NHC Webmaster
8 months 3 weeks ago
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024
000
WTNT41 KNHC 221455
TCDAT1
Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
1100 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024
An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft investigating Oscar has had
difficulty locating a center this morning. Data from the plane and
visible satellite images suggest that the circulation is becoming
elongated. Also, the system may have weakened below tropical storm
strength, but we will wait for an upcoming scatterometer pass that
will provide a wider swath of wind data before downgrading it.
Thus, for the moment, the intensity is being maintained at 35 kt.
Nonetheless, since all of the stronger winds are occurring east of
the center, the Tropical Storm Warning for the Central Bahamas is
being discontinued.
Given the poor definition of the center, the initial motion is an
uncertain 040/10 kt. Oscar should accelerate northeastward along
the eastern side of a mid- to upper-level trough during the next day
or so. The official track forecast is a little faster than the
previous NHC prediction in 24-36 hours. Within the next couple of
days, the global models indicate that the trough will cause
baroclinic cyclogenesis to occur near or north of Oscar. The
resulting extratropical surface low is likely to absorb or merge
with the tropical cyclone or its remnants.
The atmospheric environment, consisting of strong shear and
relatively dry air, is expected to remain hostile for the
maintenance of a tropical cyclone, so no strengthening is
anticipated. Indeed, it is possible that Oscar could dissipate
before it interacts with the new extratropical cyclone.
Key Messages:
1. Localized flash flooding will be possible today across the
southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. With
rainfall easing across Cuba, flooding from rainfall which has
already occurred could remain a concern for the next several days.
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
southeastern Bahamas today.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/1500Z 22.9N 74.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 24.7N 72.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 27.8N 70.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 24/0000Z 31.5N 68.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
NHC Webmaster
8 months 3 weeks ago
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024
000
FONT11 KNHC 221455
PWSAT1
TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024
1500 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
MAYAGUANA 34 26 X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NHC Webmaster
8 months 3 weeks ago
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024
000
WTNT31 KNHC 221455
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Oscar Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
1100 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024
...OSCAR IS BARELY A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 74.1W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ESE OF LONG ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the Central Bahamas.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Bahamas
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was
located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 74.1 West. Oscar is
moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a faster
northeastward motion is expected during the next day or two. On
the forecast track, the center of Oscar will be moving away from
the Bahamas later today or tonight.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Oscar could dissipate later today, or merge with an extratropical
low pressure system within the next couple of days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
parts of the southeastern Bahamas today.
RAINFALL: Across the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos
Islands, additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches are expected
through today. This rainfall could cause localized flash flooding.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Oscar,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
NHC Webmaster
8 months 3 weeks ago
...OSCAR IS BARELY A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
As of 11:00 AM EDT Tue Oct 22
the center of Oscar was located near 22.9, -74.1
with movement NE at 12 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
NHC Webmaster
8 months 3 weeks ago
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024
000
WTNT21 KNHC 221454
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024
1500 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 74.1W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 74.1W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 74.6W
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 24.7N 72.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 27.8N 70.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 31.5N 68.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 74.1W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 22/1800Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NHC Webmaster
8 months 3 weeks ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 22 Oct 2024 11:58:43 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Oct 2024 09:22:54 GMT
NHC Webmaster
8 months 3 weeks ago
...OSCAR CONTINUES MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
As of 8:00 AM EDT Tue Oct 22
the center of Oscar was located near 22.8, -74.7
with movement NE at 12 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
NHC Webmaster
8 months 3 weeks ago
Issued at 800 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024
ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Oscar Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024
...OSCAR CONTINUES MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 74.7W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SE OF LONG ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas
* Southeastern Bahamas
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was
located near latitude 22.8 North, longitude 74.7 West. Oscar is
moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A faster
northeastward motion is expected later today and on Wednesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to move near the
southeastern and central Bahamas today, then move away from the
Bahamas tonight and Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the day today. Oscar is
expected to become a post-tropical low by tonight or early
Wednesday, and then be absorbed by another low pressure area by
Thursday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
east and northeast of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
parts of the central and southeastern Bahamas today.
RAINFALL: Across the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos
Islands, rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated amounts
around 8 inches, are expected through today. This rainfall could
cause localized flash flooding.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Oscar,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
NNNN
NHC Webmaster
8 months 3 weeks ago
000
ABNT20 KNHC 221129
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Oscar, located near the central and southeastern Bahamas.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Papin
NHC Webmaster
8 months 3 weeks ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 22 Oct 2024 08:35:59 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Oct 2024 09:22:54 GMT
NHC Webmaster
8 months 3 weeks ago
Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024
000
WTNT41 KNHC 220833
TCDAT1
Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
500 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024
Oscar is at best barely a tropical storm at this time. While
convection associated with the system has increased since the last
advisory, most of it is occurring in clusters well away from the
center in the eastern semicircle, and there is only minimal
convection near the center. Also, while 850 mb flight-level winds
were as high as 45-50 kt during an earlier Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter mission, dropsonde and SFMR data suggests those
winds were having trouble mixing down to the surface. The system
will be maintained as a 35-kt tropical storm pending the next recon
flight and whether convection will increase further during the
upcoming diurnal maximum.
The global models are in good agreement that a developing mid- to
upper-level trough over the southwestern Atlantic will cause
baroclinic cyclogenesis near or north of Oscar during the next
24-48 h. The UKMET shows Oscar become the main focus for the
development and becoming a large extratropical low, while the GFS
develops a second low to the north of Oscar with Oscar becoming
absorbed into the new system. The ECMWF and Canadian models
forecast a blend of these scenarios, with the baroclinic low forming
close to Oscar. Given Oscar's organization and current trends in
satellite imagery, the intensity forecast leans towards the GFS
solution, with Oscar becoming a post-tropical low in less than 24 h
and then being absorbed by the new low in 36-48 h.
The initial motion is now 030/10 kt. Interaction with the above
mentioned trough should steer Oscar generally northeastward with an
increase in forward speed until it is absorbed by the new
baroclinic low. The new forecast track is similar to the previous
track.
Key Messages:
1. Through Tuesday, localized flash flooding will be possible across
the southeastern Bahamas as well as the Turks and Caicos Islands.
With rainfall easing across Cuba, flooding from rainfall which has
already occurred could remain a concern for the next several days.
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
southeastern and central Bahamas today.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0900Z 22.7N 74.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 23.8N 73.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 25.7N 71.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 23/1800Z 28.5N 69.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven
NHC Webmaster
8 months 3 weeks ago
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024
000
FONT11 KNHC 220832
PWSAT1
TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024
0900 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
SAN SALVADOR 34 15 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
MAYAGUANA 34 17 X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NHC Webmaster
8 months 3 weeks ago
Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024
000
WTNT31 KNHC 220832
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Oscar Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
500 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024
...POORLY ORGANIZED OSCAR MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 74.8W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SSE OF LONG ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas
* Southeastern Bahamas
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was
located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 74.8 West. Oscar is
moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A faster
northeastward motion is expected later today and on Wednesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to move near the
southeastern and central Bahamas today, then move away from the
Bahamas tonight and Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
While little change in strength is forecast during the next day or
two, Oscar is expected to become a post-tropical low by tonight and
then be absorbed by another low pressure area by Thursday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
east and northeast of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
parts of the central and southeastern Bahamas today.
RAINFALL: Across the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos
Islands, rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated amounts
around 8 inches, are expected through Tuesday. This rainfall could
cause localized flash flooding.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Oscar,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Beven
NHC Webmaster
8 months 3 weeks ago
...POORLY ORGANIZED OSCAR MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
As of 5:00 AM EDT Tue Oct 22
the center of Oscar was located near 22.7, -74.8
with movement NNE at 12 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
NHC Webmaster
8 months 3 weeks ago
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024
000
WTNT21 KNHC 220831
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024
0900 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 74.8W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 74.8W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 75.1W
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 23.8N 73.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 25.7N 71.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 28.5N 69.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 74.8W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 22/1200Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NHC Webmaster
8 months 3 weeks ago
000
ABNT20 KNHC 220532
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Oscar, located near the central and southeastern Bahamas.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Hagen
NHC Webmaster
8 months 3 weeks ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 22 Oct 2024 05:32:09 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Oct 2024 03:22:58 GMT
NHC Webmaster
8 months 3 weeks ago
Issued at 200 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024
000
WTNT31 KNHC 220531
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Oscar Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
200 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024
...POORLY ORGANIZED OSCAR MOVING TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 75.1W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM S OF LONG ISLAND
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...14 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas
* Southeastern Bahamas
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was
located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 75.1 West. Oscar is
moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (14 km/h). A faster
northeastward motion is expected later today and on Wednesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to move near the
southeastern and central Bahamas later today.
Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of
days, and Oscar could degenerate to a post-tropical low by tonight.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
east and northeast of the center.
The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
parts of the central and southeastern Bahamas today.
RAINFALL: Through today, additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3
inches are expected, leading to storm total accumulations of 20
inches across portions of eastern Cuba. This rainfall may produce
additional flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep
terrain.
Across the southeastern Bahamas, rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches,
with isolated amounts around 8 inches, are expected. This rainfall
could cause localized flash flooding.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Oscar,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Beven
NHC Webmaster
8 months 3 weeks ago
...POORLY ORGANIZED OSCAR MOVING TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
As of 2:00 AM EDT Tue Oct 22
the center of Oscar was located near 22.3, -75.1
with movement NNE at 9 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
NHC Webmaster
Checked
5 years 9 months ago
Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of America
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