9 months 3 weeks ago
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AND BE SHORT-LIVED...
As of 4:00 PM CDT Thu Jun 1
the center of Two was located near 28.0, -86.6
with movement WNW at 2 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
NHC Webmaster
9 months 3 weeks ago
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Jun 01 2023
000
WTNT42 KNHC 012042
TCDAT2
Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022023
400 PM CDT Thu Jun 01 2023
Satellite imagery over the past 12-18 hours indicate that the area
of low pressure in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico has become better
organized. A burst of moderate to deep convection that initiated
last night has persisted into the afternoon with an increase in
banding, though the cloud tops have been warming recently. An
earlier ASCAT-C pass at 1558 UTC also indicated a broad closed
circulation had developed along the southern edge of the cirrus
canopy. The NOAA ship Ronald H. Brown passed very near the center
earlier, showing a distinct wind shift with west-southwest winds
just south of the center. An Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance
aircraft has been investigating the system this afternoon. So far,
the aircraft was able to close off a circulation, and found flight
level winds in the 35-40 kt range to the northeast of the center.
The most recent TAFB Dvorak fix provided a data-T number of
2.0/30-kt. Based on all the above data, the system has enough
organization to initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Two, with
maximum sustained winds of 30 kt.
The depression has been meandering today, with the estimated motion
at 290/2 kt. Currently, the steering currents over the system are
light and variable as the cyclone is positioned directly overhead of
an upper-level trough. However as this trough shifts eastward,
deep-layer flow out of the north-northwest should begin to move the
cyclone slowly to the south or south-southwest with gradually
increasing forward motion. The initial NHC forecast track has
elected to stay close to the reliable consensus aid TVCN, which is
pretty close to a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF forecasts.
Intensity-wise, there is a small window for the system to intensify
further over the next 12-24 hours. While SHIPS diagnosed 200-850 mb
westerly shear is quite high, above 30 kt, with plenty of dry
mid-level air lurking to the west, the GOES-16 derived motion winds
suggest the cold cloud tops only extend up to 300 mb where westerly
flow is currently lighter. This factor may explain why upper-level
cirrus outflow has been expanding westward away from the center in
the northern semicircle. Sea surface temperatures between 26-27 C
combined with cold upper-level temperatures are also likely helping
to maintain enough thermodynamic instability for moderate to deep
convection to persist near the center. For this reason, the latest
NHC intensity forecast shows some modest intensification over the
next 12-24 h. However, by Friday night into Saturday, the same
northwesterly flow steering the system is also expected to rapidly
increase the shear as the system becomes positioned on the upstream
side of the upper-level trough, where subsidence may inhibit
additional convection. Thus, weakening is forecast to begin by
Friday night and the latest forecast degenerates the cyclone into a
remnant low by 60-h with dissipation shortly thereafter.
At this juncture, the relatively small wind field of the tropical
cyclone, combined with its motion keeping the center over the open
Gulf of Mexico for at least the next few days precludes the need
for any Watches and Warnings at this time.
Per the Public Information Statement that was issued by NHC on May
11, this system is being numbered as the second cyclone of 2023 in
the Atlantic basin and is being designated as Tropical Depression
Two. During the course of typical re-assessment of weather systems
in the NHC's area of responsibility, NHC determined that an area of
low pressure that formed off the northeastern coast of the United
States in mid-January was an “unnamed” subtropical cyclone and was
given AL012023 as its system ID. As a result, this system is
designated as AL022023, and advisories are being issued in AWIPS bin
2 (e.g., Public Advisories have been issued under AWIPS header
TCPAT2 and WMO header WTNT32 KNHC). If Tropical Depression Two
becomes a tropical storm, it would be given the name `ARLENE`.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/2100Z 28.0N 86.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 27.7N 86.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 26.4N 86.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 24.8N 86.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 23.7N 85.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 22.6N 84.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Papin
NHC Webmaster
9 months 3 weeks ago
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUN 01 2023
000
FONT12 KNHC 012038
PWSAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022023
2100 UTC THU JUN 01 2023
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GFMX 290N 870W 34 6 X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
NHC Webmaster
9 months 3 weeks ago
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUN 01 2023
000
WTNT22 KNHC 012036
TCMAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022023
2100 UTC THU JUN 01 2023
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY... TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY... TCP).
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 86.6W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 2 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 86.6W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 86.5W
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 27.7N 86.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 26.4N 86.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 24.8N 86.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 23.7N 85.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.6N 84.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.0N 86.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
NHC Webmaster
9 months 3 weeks ago
000
ABNT20 KNHC 011722
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Northeastern Gulf of Mexico (AL91):
Recent satellite wind data, along with buoy and ship observations
indicate the area of low pressure over the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico has a broad but well-defined circulation with maximum
sustained winds of about 35 mph. Shower and thunderstorm activity
associated with the low is also showing signs of organization.
Environmental conditions remain marginally favorable for additional
development, and if these trends continue, a short-lived tropical
depression or storm is likely to form as soon as this afternoon. The
system is likely to meander over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico
through tonight but begin a slow southward motion on Friday. By
this weekend, environmental conditions are forecast to become
unfavorable for additional development as the system continues
moving southward, likely remaining offshore over the Gulf of Mexico.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system later this afternoon.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall could occur over
portions of the Florida Peninsula through this weekend. Additional
information on the rainfall and flooding potential can be found in
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks issued by the Weather
Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
$$
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi
NHC Webmaster
9 months 3 weeks ago
000
ABNT20 KNHC 311734
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed May 31 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Northeastern Gulf of Mexico:
An area of low pressure has formed over the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico in association with disorganized showers and thunderstorms
displaced to its northeast. Environmental conditions appear
marginally favorable for some slow development over the next day or
two as the system meanders over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.
However, by this weekend environmental conditions are forecast to
become unfavorable for additional development as the system drifts
southeastward towards the Florida Peninsula. Regardless of
development, the system could produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds
over portions of the Florida Peninsula through this weekend.
Additional information on the rainfall and flooding potential can be
found in products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks issued by the
Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Papin
NHC Webmaster
9 months 4 weeks ago
000
ABNT20 KNHC 301739
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue May 30 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Central Gulf of Mexico:
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is associated with
a surface trough of low pressure interacting with an upper-level
trough over the central Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions
appear only marginally favorable for additional development over the
next several days as the system meanders over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico. The system is then forecast to move across the Florida
Peninsula this weekend and emerge into the southwestern Atlantic
Ocean by early next week. Regardless of development, the system
could produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds over portions of the
Florida Peninsula later this week. Additional information on the
rainfall and flooding potential can be found in products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office and Excessive
Rainfall Outlooks issued by the Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Papin/Blake
NHC Webmaster
9 months 4 weeks ago
000
ABNT20 KNHC 291722
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Blake
NHC Webmaster
9 months 4 weeks ago
000
ABNT20 KNHC 281733
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Blake
NHC Webmaster
10 months ago
000
ABNT20 KNHC 271730
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat May 27 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Southwestern Atlantic:
A non-tropical low pressure system located about 80 miles south
of Charleston, South Carolina, continues to produce gusty
winds and disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of
the southeastern United States and western Atlantic Ocean. This low
is expected to remain a frontal system while it moves northward and
inland over the Carolinas tonight or early Sunday.
Even though development into a subtropical or tropical cyclone is
not expected, the system will produce gusty winds and dangerous
surf and rip current conditions along portions of the southeastern
United States coast through Sunday. Heavy rainfall is expected in
portions of the Carolinas and Virginia during the next couple of
days. Hazardous marine conditions are also expected over the
coastal and offshore waters where gale and storm warnings are in
effect. For more information, see products from your local National
Weather Service office and high seas forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
$$
Forecaster Blake
NHC Webmaster
10 months ago
000
ABNT20 KNHC 261738
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri May 26 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Southwestern Atlantic:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located near the southeastern
United States coast are associated with a non-tropical low pressure
area and associated frontal boundary. The low is unlikely to become
a subtropical or tropical cyclone since it is forecast to remain
frontal while moving generally northward and inland over the
Carolinas late Saturday or Sunday.
Regardless, the system is expected to continue producing gusty
winds, and dangerous surf and rip current conditions along portions
of the southeastern United States coast through Sunday. Heavy
rainfall is expected in portions of the Carolinas and Virginia
during the next couple of days. Hazardous marine conditions are
also expected over the coastal and offshore waters where gale and
storm warnings are in effect. For more information, see products
from your local National Weather Service office and high seas
forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
$$
Forecaster Brown/Roberts
NHC Webmaster
10 months ago
000
ABNT20 KNHC 251731
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu May 25 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Southwestern Atlantic:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms off the coast of the
southeastern United States are associated with a front and trough
of low pressure. A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected
to form along the frontal boundary within the next day or so. The
system appears unlikely to become a subtropical or tropical cyclone
since it is forecast to remain frontal while moving generally
northward and inland over the Carolinas this weekend.
Regardless, the system is likely to produce gusty winds and
dangerous surf and rip current conditions along portions of the
southeastern United States late this week and into the weekend.
Heavy rainfall is expected in portions of the Carolinas with
hazardous marine conditions expected over the coastal and
offshore waters where gale warnings are in effect. For more
information, see products from your local National Weather
Service office and high seas forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
$$
Forecaster Brown
NHC Webmaster
10 months ago
000
ABNT20 KNHC 241737
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Southwestern Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form along a
front offshore of the southeastern United States coast during the
next day or two. The system appears unlikely to become a subtropical
or tropical cyclone since it is forecast to remain frontal while
moving generally northward and inland over the Carolinas this
weekend.
Regardless, the system is likely to produce gusty winds and
dangerous surf and rip current conditions along portions of the
southeastern United States coast late this week and into the
weekend. Heavy rainfall is expected in portions of the Carolinas,
and hazardous marine conditions are expected over the coastal and
offshore waters where gale watches and warnings are in effect. For
more information, see products from your local National Weather
Service office and high seas forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
NHC Webmaster
10 months ago
000
ABNT20 KNHC 231725
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue May 23 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
NHC Webmaster
10 months ago
000
ABNT20 KNHC 221742
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon May 22 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Southwestern Atlantic:
Disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms associated with a broad
area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles northeast of
the central Bahamas have decreased since yesterday. Environmental
conditions have become more hostile and development of this system
is not expected while it moves north-northeastward at 5 to 10 mph
over the southwestern Atlantic during the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.
$$
Forecaster Brown/Bucci
NHC Webmaster
10 months ago
270
ABNT20 KNHC 211732
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun May 21 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Southwestern Tropical Atlantic:
A broad low is producing a large area of disturbed weather extending
a couple hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas. Environmental
conditions are expected to become less favorable later today and
development of this system is not expected as it moves generally
north-northeastward over the southwestern Atlantic at 5 to 10 mph
during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
$$
Forecaster Kelly/Bucci
NHC Webmaster
10 months 1 week ago
000
ABNT20 KNHC 201716
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat May 20 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Brown
NHC Webmaster
10 months 1 week ago
000
ABNT20 KNHC 191708
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri May 19 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown
NHC Webmaster
10 months 1 week ago
000
ABNT20 KNHC 181717
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu May 18 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown
NHC Webmaster
10 months 1 week ago
000
ABNT20 KNHC 171725
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed May 17 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown
NHC Webmaster
Checked
4 years 5 months ago
Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico
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