Tropical Depression Two Forecast Discussion Number 1

9 months 3 weeks ago
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Jun 01 2023 000 WTNT42 KNHC 012042 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022023 400 PM CDT Thu Jun 01 2023 Satellite imagery over the past 12-18 hours indicate that the area of low pressure in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico has become better organized. A burst of moderate to deep convection that initiated last night has persisted into the afternoon with an increase in banding, though the cloud tops have been warming recently. An earlier ASCAT-C pass at 1558 UTC also indicated a broad closed circulation had developed along the southern edge of the cirrus canopy. The NOAA ship Ronald H. Brown passed very near the center earlier, showing a distinct wind shift with west-southwest winds just south of the center. An Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance aircraft has been investigating the system this afternoon. So far, the aircraft was able to close off a circulation, and found flight level winds in the 35-40 kt range to the northeast of the center. The most recent TAFB Dvorak fix provided a data-T number of 2.0/30-kt. Based on all the above data, the system has enough organization to initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Two, with maximum sustained winds of 30 kt. The depression has been meandering today, with the estimated motion at 290/2 kt. Currently, the steering currents over the system are light and variable as the cyclone is positioned directly overhead of an upper-level trough. However as this trough shifts eastward, deep-layer flow out of the north-northwest should begin to move the cyclone slowly to the south or south-southwest with gradually increasing forward motion. The initial NHC forecast track has elected to stay close to the reliable consensus aid TVCN, which is pretty close to a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF forecasts. Intensity-wise, there is a small window for the system to intensify further over the next 12-24 hours. While SHIPS diagnosed 200-850 mb westerly shear is quite high, above 30 kt, with plenty of dry mid-level air lurking to the west, the GOES-16 derived motion winds suggest the cold cloud tops only extend up to 300 mb where westerly flow is currently lighter. This factor may explain why upper-level cirrus outflow has been expanding westward away from the center in the northern semicircle. Sea surface temperatures between 26-27 C combined with cold upper-level temperatures are also likely helping to maintain enough thermodynamic instability for moderate to deep convection to persist near the center. For this reason, the latest NHC intensity forecast shows some modest intensification over the next 12-24 h. However, by Friday night into Saturday, the same northwesterly flow steering the system is also expected to rapidly increase the shear as the system becomes positioned on the upstream side of the upper-level trough, where subsidence may inhibit additional convection. Thus, weakening is forecast to begin by Friday night and the latest forecast degenerates the cyclone into a remnant low by 60-h with dissipation shortly thereafter. At this juncture, the relatively small wind field of the tropical cyclone, combined with its motion keeping the center over the open Gulf of Mexico for at least the next few days precludes the need for any Watches and Warnings at this time. Per the Public Information Statement that was issued by NHC on May 11, this system is being numbered as the second cyclone of 2023 in the Atlantic basin and is being designated as Tropical Depression Two. During the course of typical re-assessment of weather systems in the NHC's area of responsibility, NHC determined that an area of low pressure that formed off the northeastern coast of the United States in mid-January was an “unnamed” subtropical cyclone and was given AL012023 as its system ID. As a result, this system is designated as AL022023, and advisories are being issued in AWIPS bin 2 (e.g., Public Advisories have been issued under AWIPS header TCPAT2 and WMO header WTNT32 KNHC). If Tropical Depression Two becomes a tropical storm, it would be given the name `ARLENE`. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 28.0N 86.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 27.7N 86.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 26.4N 86.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 24.8N 86.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 23.7N 85.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 04/0600Z 22.6N 84.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Depression Two Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

9 months 3 weeks ago
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUN 01 2023 000 FONT12 KNHC 012038 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022023 2100 UTC THU JUN 01 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 290N 870W 34 6 X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Depression Two Forecast Advisory Number 1

9 months 3 weeks ago
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUN 01 2023 000 WTNT22 KNHC 012036 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022023 2100 UTC THU JUN 01 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY... TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY... TCP). TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 86.6W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 86.6W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 86.5W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 27.7N 86.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 26.4N 86.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 24.8N 86.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 23.7N 85.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.6N 84.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.0N 86.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
NHC Webmaster

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

9 months 3 weeks ago

000
ABNT20 KNHC 011722
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northeastern Gulf of Mexico (AL91):
Recent satellite wind data, along with buoy and ship observations
indicate the area of low pressure over the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico has a broad but well-defined circulation with maximum
sustained winds of about 35 mph. Shower and thunderstorm activity
associated with the low is also showing signs of organization.
Environmental conditions remain marginally favorable for additional
development, and if these trends continue, a short-lived tropical
depression or storm is likely to form as soon as this afternoon. The
system is likely to meander over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico
through tonight but begin a slow southward motion on Friday. By
this weekend, environmental conditions are forecast to become
unfavorable for additional development as the system continues
moving southward, likely remaining offshore over the Gulf of Mexico.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system later this afternoon.

Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall could occur over
portions of the Florida Peninsula through this weekend. Additional
information on the rainfall and flooding potential can be found in
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks issued by the Weather
Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi
NHC Webmaster

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

9 months 3 weeks ago

000
ABNT20 KNHC 311734
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed May 31 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northeastern Gulf of Mexico:
An area of low pressure has formed over the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico in association with disorganized showers and thunderstorms
displaced to its northeast. Environmental conditions appear
marginally favorable for some slow development over the next day or
two as the system meanders over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.
However, by this weekend environmental conditions are forecast to
become unfavorable for additional development as the system drifts
southeastward towards the Florida Peninsula. Regardless of
development, the system could produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds
over portions of the Florida Peninsula through this weekend.
Additional information on the rainfall and flooding potential can be
found in products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks issued by the
Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin
NHC Webmaster

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

9 months 4 weeks ago

000
ABNT20 KNHC 301739
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue May 30 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Gulf of Mexico:
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is associated with
a surface trough of low pressure interacting with an upper-level
trough over the central Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions
appear only marginally favorable for additional development over the
next several days as the system meanders over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico. The system is then forecast to move across the Florida
Peninsula this weekend and emerge into the southwestern Atlantic
Ocean by early next week. Regardless of development, the system
could produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds over portions of the
Florida Peninsula later this week. Additional information on the
rainfall and flooding potential can be found in products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office and Excessive
Rainfall Outlooks issued by the Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Blake
NHC Webmaster

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

9 months 4 weeks ago

000
ABNT20 KNHC 291722
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake
NHC Webmaster

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

9 months 4 weeks ago

000
ABNT20 KNHC 281733
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake
NHC Webmaster

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

10 months ago

000
ABNT20 KNHC 271730
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat May 27 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Atlantic:
A non-tropical low pressure system located about 80 miles south
of Charleston, South Carolina, continues to produce gusty
winds and disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of
the southeastern United States and western Atlantic Ocean. This low
is expected to remain a frontal system while it moves northward and
inland over the Carolinas tonight or early Sunday.

Even though development into a subtropical or tropical cyclone is
not expected, the system will produce gusty winds and dangerous
surf and rip current conditions along portions of the southeastern
United States coast through Sunday. Heavy rainfall is expected in
portions of the Carolinas and Virginia during the next couple of
days. Hazardous marine conditions are also expected over the
coastal and offshore waters where gale and storm warnings are in
effect. For more information, see products from your local National
Weather Service office and high seas forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Blake
NHC Webmaster

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

10 months ago

000
ABNT20 KNHC 261738
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri May 26 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Atlantic:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located near the southeastern
United States coast are associated with a non-tropical low pressure
area and associated frontal boundary. The low is unlikely to become
a subtropical or tropical cyclone since it is forecast to remain
frontal while moving generally northward and inland over the
Carolinas late Saturday or Sunday.

Regardless, the system is expected to continue producing gusty
winds, and dangerous surf and rip current conditions along portions
of the southeastern United States coast through Sunday. Heavy
rainfall is expected in portions of the Carolinas and Virginia
during the next couple of days. Hazardous marine conditions are
also expected over the coastal and offshore waters where gale and
storm warnings are in effect. For more information, see products
from your local National Weather Service office and high seas
forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Brown/Roberts
NHC Webmaster

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

10 months ago

000
ABNT20 KNHC 251731
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu May 25 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Atlantic:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms off the coast of the
southeastern United States are associated with a front and trough
of low pressure. A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected
to form along the frontal boundary within the next day or so. The
system appears unlikely to become a subtropical or tropical cyclone
since it is forecast to remain frontal while moving generally
northward and inland over the Carolinas this weekend.

Regardless, the system is likely to produce gusty winds and
dangerous surf and rip current conditions along portions of the
southeastern United States late this week and into the weekend.
Heavy rainfall is expected in portions of the Carolinas with
hazardous marine conditions expected over the coastal and
offshore waters where gale warnings are in effect. For more
information, see products from your local National Weather
Service office and high seas forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Brown
NHC Webmaster

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

10 months ago

000
ABNT20 KNHC 241737
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form along a
front offshore of the southeastern United States coast during the
next day or two. The system appears unlikely to become a subtropical
or tropical cyclone since it is forecast to remain frontal while
moving generally northward and inland over the Carolinas this
weekend.

Regardless, the system is likely to produce gusty winds and
dangerous surf and rip current conditions along portions of the
southeastern United States coast late this week and into the
weekend. Heavy rainfall is expected in portions of the Carolinas,
and hazardous marine conditions are expected over the coastal and
offshore waters where gale watches and warnings are in effect. For
more information, see products from your local National Weather
Service office and high seas forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
NHC Webmaster

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

10 months ago

000
ABNT20 KNHC 221742
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon May 22 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Atlantic:
Disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms associated with a broad
area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles northeast of
the central Bahamas have decreased since yesterday. Environmental
conditions have become more hostile and development of this system
is not expected while it moves north-northeastward at 5 to 10 mph
over the southwestern Atlantic during the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Bucci
NHC Webmaster

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

10 months ago

270
ABNT20 KNHC 211732
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun May 21 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Tropical Atlantic:
A broad low is producing a large area of disturbed weather extending
a couple hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas. Environmental
conditions are expected to become less favorable later today and
development of this system is not expected as it moves generally
north-northeastward over the southwestern Atlantic at 5 to 10 mph
during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Bucci

NHC Webmaster

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

10 months 1 week ago

000
ABNT20 KNHC 201716
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat May 20 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown
NHC Webmaster

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

10 months 1 week ago

000
ABNT20 KNHC 191708
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri May 19 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown
NHC Webmaster

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

10 months 1 week ago

000
ABNT20 KNHC 181717
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu May 18 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown
NHC Webmaster

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

10 months 1 week ago

000
ABNT20 KNHC 171725
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed May 17 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown
NHC Webmaster
Checked
4 years 5 months ago
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