Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across the High Plains into southwestern Minnesota. Severe gusts and large hail are the expected hazards. ...High Plains to southwestern MN... Strong northern-stream short-wave trough is currently located over southeastern BC into the northern inter mountain region. This feature is forecast to advance into eastern MT/WY by 03/00z as 60+kt 500mb flow translates into the northern Dakotas. During the latter half of the period, mid-level heights will be suppressed across this region and a pronounced surface anticyclone will force a strong cold front to surge across the eastern Dakotas/NE into the upper MS Valley. Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will be noted ahead of the cold front with the steepest 0-3km lapse rates forecast across the central High Plains, and across portions of northern MN by late afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will be breached just ahead of the surging cold front by 21-22z, and scattered convection should readily develop along the wind shift. While some supercell threat is expected, especially early in the convective evolution, storm mergers and potential clustering/line segments favor a hail risk transitioning to more wind. Farther south into the TX Panhandle region, a well-defined upper low is beginning to eject northeast across the northern Baja Peninsula. This feature will open up and progress into the southern High Plains by late evening. Large-scale forcing ahead of the short wave will prove instrumental in aiding scattered robust convection across much of the southern High Plains by late afternoon. Forecast soundings are not particularly noteworthy, but amply buoyant and adequately sheared for some convective organization. While some hail risk appears possible early, locally damaging winds may be more common as convection spreads east during the evening hours, aided by southern-stream short wave. ...South Florida... Strong short-wave trough is digging southeast across the lower MS Valley, and will progress into the eastern Gulf Basin by late afternoon. Some increase in mid-level flow is expected across the southern Peninsula, along with a LLJ by early evening across southeast FL. This synoptic evolution favors a considerable amount of convection across this region as large-scale support increases ahead of the short wave. Scattered-widespread thunderstorms, beginning as early as 18z, are expected. Some of this activity may be robust at times. Have introduced a MRGL Risk to account for a local wind/hail threat with this activity. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 06/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across the High Plains into southwestern Minnesota. Severe gusts and large hail are the expected hazards. ...High Plains to southwestern MN... Strong northern-stream short-wave trough is currently located over southeastern BC into the northern inter mountain region. This feature is forecast to advance into eastern MT/WY by 03/00z as 60+kt 500mb flow translates into the northern Dakotas. During the latter half of the period, mid-level heights will be suppressed across this region and a pronounced surface anticyclone will force a strong cold front to surge across the eastern Dakotas/NE into the upper MS Valley. Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will be noted ahead of the cold front with the steepest 0-3km lapse rates forecast across the central High Plains, and across portions of northern MN by late afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will be breached just ahead of the surging cold front by 21-22z, and scattered convection should readily develop along the wind shift. While some supercell threat is expected, especially early in the convective evolution, storm mergers and potential clustering/line segments favor a hail risk transitioning to more wind. Farther south into the TX Panhandle region, a well-defined upper low is beginning to eject northeast across the northern Baja Peninsula. This feature will open up and progress into the southern High Plains by late evening. Large-scale forcing ahead of the short wave will prove instrumental in aiding scattered robust convection across much of the southern High Plains by late afternoon. Forecast soundings are not particularly noteworthy, but amply buoyant and adequately sheared for some convective organization. While some hail risk appears possible early, locally damaging winds may be more common as convection spreads east during the evening hours, aided by southern-stream short wave. ...South Florida... Strong short-wave trough is digging southeast across the lower MS Valley, and will progress into the eastern Gulf Basin by late afternoon. Some increase in mid-level flow is expected across the southern Peninsula, along with a LLJ by early evening across southeast FL. This synoptic evolution favors a considerable amount of convection across this region as large-scale support increases ahead of the short wave. Scattered-widespread thunderstorms, beginning as early as 18z, are expected. Some of this activity may be robust at times. Have introduced a MRGL Risk to account for a local wind/hail threat with this activity. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 06/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across the High Plains into southwestern Minnesota. Severe gusts and large hail are the expected hazards. ...High Plains to southwestern MN... Strong northern-stream short-wave trough is currently located over southeastern BC into the northern inter mountain region. This feature is forecast to advance into eastern MT/WY by 03/00z as 60+kt 500mb flow translates into the northern Dakotas. During the latter half of the period, mid-level heights will be suppressed across this region and a pronounced surface anticyclone will force a strong cold front to surge across the eastern Dakotas/NE into the upper MS Valley. Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will be noted ahead of the cold front with the steepest 0-3km lapse rates forecast across the central High Plains, and across portions of northern MN by late afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will be breached just ahead of the surging cold front by 21-22z, and scattered convection should readily develop along the wind shift. While some supercell threat is expected, especially early in the convective evolution, storm mergers and potential clustering/line segments favor a hail risk transitioning to more wind. Farther south into the TX Panhandle region, a well-defined upper low is beginning to eject northeast across the northern Baja Peninsula. This feature will open up and progress into the southern High Plains by late evening. Large-scale forcing ahead of the short wave will prove instrumental in aiding scattered robust convection across much of the southern High Plains by late afternoon. Forecast soundings are not particularly noteworthy, but amply buoyant and adequately sheared for some convective organization. While some hail risk appears possible early, locally damaging winds may be more common as convection spreads east during the evening hours, aided by southern-stream short wave. ...South Florida... Strong short-wave trough is digging southeast across the lower MS Valley, and will progress into the eastern Gulf Basin by late afternoon. Some increase in mid-level flow is expected across the southern Peninsula, along with a LLJ by early evening across southeast FL. This synoptic evolution favors a considerable amount of convection across this region as large-scale support increases ahead of the short wave. Scattered-widespread thunderstorms, beginning as early as 18z, are expected. Some of this activity may be robust at times. Have introduced a MRGL Risk to account for a local wind/hail threat with this activity. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 06/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across the High Plains into southwestern Minnesota. Severe gusts and large hail are the expected hazards. ...High Plains to southwestern MN... Strong northern-stream short-wave trough is currently located over southeastern BC into the northern inter mountain region. This feature is forecast to advance into eastern MT/WY by 03/00z as 60+kt 500mb flow translates into the northern Dakotas. During the latter half of the period, mid-level heights will be suppressed across this region and a pronounced surface anticyclone will force a strong cold front to surge across the eastern Dakotas/NE into the upper MS Valley. Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will be noted ahead of the cold front with the steepest 0-3km lapse rates forecast across the central High Plains, and across portions of northern MN by late afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will be breached just ahead of the surging cold front by 21-22z, and scattered convection should readily develop along the wind shift. While some supercell threat is expected, especially early in the convective evolution, storm mergers and potential clustering/line segments favor a hail risk transitioning to more wind. Farther south into the TX Panhandle region, a well-defined upper low is beginning to eject northeast across the northern Baja Peninsula. This feature will open up and progress into the southern High Plains by late evening. Large-scale forcing ahead of the short wave will prove instrumental in aiding scattered robust convection across much of the southern High Plains by late afternoon. Forecast soundings are not particularly noteworthy, but amply buoyant and adequately sheared for some convective organization. While some hail risk appears possible early, locally damaging winds may be more common as convection spreads east during the evening hours, aided by southern-stream short wave. ...South Florida... Strong short-wave trough is digging southeast across the lower MS Valley, and will progress into the eastern Gulf Basin by late afternoon. Some increase in mid-level flow is expected across the southern Peninsula, along with a LLJ by early evening across southeast FL. This synoptic evolution favors a considerable amount of convection across this region as large-scale support increases ahead of the short wave. Scattered-widespread thunderstorms, beginning as early as 18z, are expected. Some of this activity may be robust at times. Have introduced a MRGL Risk to account for a local wind/hail threat with this activity. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 06/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across the High Plains into southwestern Minnesota. Severe gusts and large hail are the expected hazards. ...High Plains to southwestern MN... Strong northern-stream short-wave trough is currently located over southeastern BC into the northern inter mountain region. This feature is forecast to advance into eastern MT/WY by 03/00z as 60+kt 500mb flow translates into the northern Dakotas. During the latter half of the period, mid-level heights will be suppressed across this region and a pronounced surface anticyclone will force a strong cold front to surge across the eastern Dakotas/NE into the upper MS Valley. Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will be noted ahead of the cold front with the steepest 0-3km lapse rates forecast across the central High Plains, and across portions of northern MN by late afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will be breached just ahead of the surging cold front by 21-22z, and scattered convection should readily develop along the wind shift. While some supercell threat is expected, especially early in the convective evolution, storm mergers and potential clustering/line segments favor a hail risk transitioning to more wind. Farther south into the TX Panhandle region, a well-defined upper low is beginning to eject northeast across the northern Baja Peninsula. This feature will open up and progress into the southern High Plains by late evening. Large-scale forcing ahead of the short wave will prove instrumental in aiding scattered robust convection across much of the southern High Plains by late afternoon. Forecast soundings are not particularly noteworthy, but amply buoyant and adequately sheared for some convective organization. While some hail risk appears possible early, locally damaging winds may be more common as convection spreads east during the evening hours, aided by southern-stream short wave. ...South Florida... Strong short-wave trough is digging southeast across the lower MS Valley, and will progress into the eastern Gulf Basin by late afternoon. Some increase in mid-level flow is expected across the southern Peninsula, along with a LLJ by early evening across southeast FL. This synoptic evolution favors a considerable amount of convection across this region as large-scale support increases ahead of the short wave. Scattered-widespread thunderstorms, beginning as early as 18z, are expected. Some of this activity may be robust at times. Have introduced a MRGL Risk to account for a local wind/hail threat with this activity. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 06/02/2025 Read more

MD 1070 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 352... FOR NORTH-CENTRAL INTO EAST-CENTRAL TX
Mesoscale Discussion 1070 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0957 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Areas affected...North-central into east-central TX Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 352... Valid 020257Z - 020430Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 352 continues. SUMMARY...At least an isolated severe threat may continue through Midnight CDT. DISCUSSION...Increasing CINH has resulted in a decrease in storm coverage across parts of north-central into east-central TX, though one ongoing supercell is moving southward east of Waco. Moderate buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear will continue to support a threat of large hail and locally gusty winds with this cell for as long as it can persist. Farther north, earlier hail-producing storms near the Metroplex have weakened, though some redevelopment continues to the cool side of a westward-moving outflow across north-central TX. While the northernmost convection is somewhat elevated, moderate buoyancy could still support a localized hail threat with redeveloping storms through late evening, before convection generally subsides overnight. Parts of WW 352 have been extended in time to Midnight CDT in order to cover the lingering severe threat across the region. ..Dean.. 06/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 32969846 33049767 32969650 32049571 31439504 31189482 30969472 30799472 30539474 30189533 29969624 30239653 30989709 31509755 32039806 32329841 32479865 32789873 32969846 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 1069 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST WYOMING
Mesoscale Discussion 1069 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0805 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Areas affected...North-central/northeast Wyoming Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 020105Z - 020230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Severe winds and isolated large hail are possible with storms this evening. A watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...Outflow pushing westward has recently interacted with portions of the Big Horns and promoted rather rapid convective development despite very modest buoyancy. Additional activity has also developed along the surface boundary. Given the steep mid-level lapse rates sampled by the 00Z RIW sounding and 25-30 kts of shear, a couple strong to severe storms are possible early this evening. The primary concern would be severe wind gusts with isolated large hail possible as well. A cell in Natrona county did show some signs of weak low-level rotation. This is likely due to the modest surface vorticity along the boundary. The tornado threat is quite low, but a brief spin-up in this scenario could occur. ..Wendt/Hart.. 06/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... LAT...LON 43610794 44430729 44720594 44860483 44700453 44190469 43840503 43190569 42770710 42950760 43610794 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1068 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 352... FOR NORTH-CENTRAL TX
Mesoscale Discussion 1068 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Areas affected...North-central TX Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 352... Valid 020039Z - 020215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 352 continues. SUMMARY...A damaging hail/wind threat will continue this evening. DISCUSSION...A left-moving supercell has recently developed and produced 2+ inch hail on the south side of Fort Worth. This cell may continue propagating eastward along a surging outflow into the eastern part of the Metroplex. Large to very large hail and severe outflow gusts will continue to be a short-term threat with this cell. Additional cells continue to develop south and west of the Metroplex. Hodographs will continue to support splitting cells, though right-moving cells have struggled to persist within an environment with increasing MLCINH. It remains possible that a right-moving cell or two could persist and propagate southward, with a threat for hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Left-moving cells may continue to thrive in the short term. Another apparent left-moving supercell has developed west of the Metroplex, and there is some potential for this cell to continue eastward atop the expanding outflow, with a damaging hail/wind threat. With a continued severe threat near the north edge of the watch and potentially to the east of the watch, local watch expansion is being considered. ..Dean/Hart.. 06/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD... LAT...LON 32069562 31729580 31229669 31279744 31779801 32579863 32979814 33029673 32829582 32499562 32379557 32069562 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0352 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 352 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1068 ..DEAN..06/02/25 ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 352 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC015-027-035-041-051-093-099-113-133-139-143-145-157-161-185- 193-201-217-221-225-251-289-291-293-309-313-331-339-349-363-367- 373-395-407-425-439-455-471-473-477-020240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUSTIN BELL BOSQUE BRAZOS BURLESON COMANCHE CORYELL DALLAS EASTLAND ELLIS ERATH FALLS FORT BEND FREESTONE GRIMES HAMILTON HARRIS HILL HOOD HOUSTON JOHNSON LEON LIBERTY LIMESTONE MCLENNAN MADISON MILAM MONTGOMERY NAVARRO PALO PINTO PARKER POLK ROBERTSON SAN JACINTO SOMERVELL TARRANT TRINITY WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0352 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 352 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1068 ..DEAN..06/02/25 ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 352 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC015-027-035-041-051-093-099-113-133-139-143-145-157-161-185- 193-201-217-221-225-251-289-291-293-309-313-331-339-349-363-367- 373-395-407-425-439-455-471-473-477-020240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUSTIN BELL BOSQUE BRAZOS BURLESON COMANCHE CORYELL DALLAS EASTLAND ELLIS ERATH FALLS FORT BEND FREESTONE GRIMES HAMILTON HARRIS HILL HOOD HOUSTON JOHNSON LEON LIBERTY LIMESTONE MCLENNAN MADISON MILAM MONTGOMERY NAVARRO PALO PINTO PARKER POLK ROBERTSON SAN JACINTO SOMERVELL TARRANT TRINITY WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0352 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 352 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1068 ..DEAN..06/02/25 ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 352 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC015-027-035-041-051-093-099-113-133-139-143-145-157-161-185- 193-201-217-221-225-251-289-291-293-309-313-331-339-349-363-367- 373-395-407-425-439-455-471-473-477-020240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUSTIN BELL BOSQUE BRAZOS BURLESON COMANCHE CORYELL DALLAS EASTLAND ELLIS ERATH FALLS FORT BEND FREESTONE GRIMES HAMILTON HARRIS HILL HOOD HOUSTON JOHNSON LEON LIBERTY LIMESTONE MCLENNAN MADISON MILAM MONTGOMERY NAVARRO PALO PINTO PARKER POLK ROBERTSON SAN JACINTO SOMERVELL TARRANT TRINITY WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 352 SEVERE TSTM TX 011840Z - 020300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 352 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 140 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North-Central and East Texas * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 140 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Severe storms including supercell development are expected this afternoon as a moist environment heats and destabilizes. Large hail is expected with the most intense storms, with wind damage also possible as these storms generally spread southeastward through early/mid-evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles north of Stephenville TX to 75 miles south southeast of Huntsville TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 33025. ...Guyer Read more

MD 1067 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST NC INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST SC
Mesoscale Discussion 1067 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Areas affected...Southeast NC into extreme northeast SC Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 012350Z - 020115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Locally damaging wind may accompany an ongoing storm cluster before it moves offshore, with some redevelopment possible along its southwest flank. DISCUSSION...A small but vigorous storm cluster has developed across southeast NC early this evening. This cluster is approaching a low-level moisture/instability gradient, and may tend to weaken once it moves into the less unstable environment. However, localized wind damage could accompany this cluster as it approaches the coast. The western portion of the outflow with this cluster will move through a somewhat more moist/unstable environment, with potential for strong storm development within a modestly sheared environment into extreme northeast SC/southeast NC through the evening. ..Dean/Hart.. 06/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CAE... LAT...LON 33657888 34407978 34798024 34928020 34837971 34717816 34487761 34187768 34067777 33857794 33757813 33657888 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered large hail and isolated damaging winds remain possible this evening across portions of Texas. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a notable short-wave trough digging southeast across the lower MS Valley region. The tail end of this feature extends into northeast TX where it appears to be partially influential in ongoing strong/severe thunderstorm activity. Slow-moving surface boundary is currently draped across the south side of the Metroplex, extending into northwest TX, north of Abilene. 00z sounding from FWD exhibited seasonally strong instability with around 3000 J/kg MLCAPE, and adequate 0-6km bulk shear for organized updrafts. Later this evening, some increase in the LLJ is forecast across the TX South Plains, but low-level inflow is expected to remain somewhat weak farther east along the I-35 corridor. Even so, southward propagation along the instability axis is expected with these hail-producing clusters into the late-evening hours. ..Darrow.. 06/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered large hail and isolated damaging winds remain possible this evening across portions of Texas. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a notable short-wave trough digging southeast across the lower MS Valley region. The tail end of this feature extends into northeast TX where it appears to be partially influential in ongoing strong/severe thunderstorm activity. Slow-moving surface boundary is currently draped across the south side of the Metroplex, extending into northwest TX, north of Abilene. 00z sounding from FWD exhibited seasonally strong instability with around 3000 J/kg MLCAPE, and adequate 0-6km bulk shear for organized updrafts. Later this evening, some increase in the LLJ is forecast across the TX South Plains, but low-level inflow is expected to remain somewhat weak farther east along the I-35 corridor. Even so, southward propagation along the instability axis is expected with these hail-producing clusters into the late-evening hours. ..Darrow.. 06/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered large hail and isolated damaging winds remain possible this evening across portions of Texas. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a notable short-wave trough digging southeast across the lower MS Valley region. The tail end of this feature extends into northeast TX where it appears to be partially influential in ongoing strong/severe thunderstorm activity. Slow-moving surface boundary is currently draped across the south side of the Metroplex, extending into northwest TX, north of Abilene. 00z sounding from FWD exhibited seasonally strong instability with around 3000 J/kg MLCAPE, and adequate 0-6km bulk shear for organized updrafts. Later this evening, some increase in the LLJ is forecast across the TX South Plains, but low-level inflow is expected to remain somewhat weak farther east along the I-35 corridor. Even so, southward propagation along the instability axis is expected with these hail-producing clusters into the late-evening hours. ..Darrow.. 06/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered large hail and isolated damaging winds remain possible this evening across portions of Texas. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a notable short-wave trough digging southeast across the lower MS Valley region. The tail end of this feature extends into northeast TX where it appears to be partially influential in ongoing strong/severe thunderstorm activity. Slow-moving surface boundary is currently draped across the south side of the Metroplex, extending into northwest TX, north of Abilene. 00z sounding from FWD exhibited seasonally strong instability with around 3000 J/kg MLCAPE, and adequate 0-6km bulk shear for organized updrafts. Later this evening, some increase in the LLJ is forecast across the TX South Plains, but low-level inflow is expected to remain somewhat weak farther east along the I-35 corridor. Even so, southward propagation along the instability axis is expected with these hail-producing clusters into the late-evening hours. ..Darrow.. 06/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered large hail and isolated damaging winds remain possible this evening across portions of Texas. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a notable short-wave trough digging southeast across the lower MS Valley region. The tail end of this feature extends into northeast TX where it appears to be partially influential in ongoing strong/severe thunderstorm activity. Slow-moving surface boundary is currently draped across the south side of the Metroplex, extending into northwest TX, north of Abilene. 00z sounding from FWD exhibited seasonally strong instability with around 3000 J/kg MLCAPE, and adequate 0-6km bulk shear for organized updrafts. Later this evening, some increase in the LLJ is forecast across the TX South Plains, but low-level inflow is expected to remain somewhat weak farther east along the I-35 corridor. Even so, southward propagation along the instability axis is expected with these hail-producing clusters into the late-evening hours. ..Darrow.. 06/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered large hail and isolated damaging winds remain possible this evening across portions of Texas. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a notable short-wave trough digging southeast across the lower MS Valley region. The tail end of this feature extends into northeast TX where it appears to be partially influential in ongoing strong/severe thunderstorm activity. Slow-moving surface boundary is currently draped across the south side of the Metroplex, extending into northwest TX, north of Abilene. 00z sounding from FWD exhibited seasonally strong instability with around 3000 J/kg MLCAPE, and adequate 0-6km bulk shear for organized updrafts. Later this evening, some increase in the LLJ is forecast across the TX South Plains, but low-level inflow is expected to remain somewhat weak farther east along the I-35 corridor. Even so, southward propagation along the instability axis is expected with these hail-producing clusters into the late-evening hours. ..Darrow.. 06/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered large hail and isolated damaging winds remain possible this evening across portions of Texas. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a notable short-wave trough digging southeast across the lower MS Valley region. The tail end of this feature extends into northeast TX where it appears to be partially influential in ongoing strong/severe thunderstorm activity. Slow-moving surface boundary is currently draped across the south side of the Metroplex, extending into northwest TX, north of Abilene. 00z sounding from FWD exhibited seasonally strong instability with around 3000 J/kg MLCAPE, and adequate 0-6km bulk shear for organized updrafts. Later this evening, some increase in the LLJ is forecast across the TX South Plains, but low-level inflow is expected to remain somewhat weak farther east along the I-35 corridor. Even so, southward propagation along the instability axis is expected with these hail-producing clusters into the late-evening hours. ..Darrow.. 06/02/2025 Read more