Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Fire weather concerns appear limited through next weekend across the CONUS. Long-range guidance continues to show a transition to a more progressive upper-level pattern heading into next week with multiple shortwave troughs propagating across the central and eastern CONUS. This will maintain rain chances for most regions with the exception of the West Coast/Pacific Northwest where ensemble probabilities for wetting rainfall remain low through late next week. Despite dry conditions, long-range solutions do not show any strong signals for critical fire weather regimes along the West Coast/Pacific Northwest. Elsewhere, a combination of moist fuels, upcoming rain chances, and/or limited signals for critical wind speeds limits confidence in fire weather concerns for any one region. ..Moore.. 06/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Fire weather concerns appear limited through next weekend across the CONUS. Long-range guidance continues to show a transition to a more progressive upper-level pattern heading into next week with multiple shortwave troughs propagating across the central and eastern CONUS. This will maintain rain chances for most regions with the exception of the West Coast/Pacific Northwest where ensemble probabilities for wetting rainfall remain low through late next week. Despite dry conditions, long-range solutions do not show any strong signals for critical fire weather regimes along the West Coast/Pacific Northwest. Elsewhere, a combination of moist fuels, upcoming rain chances, and/or limited signals for critical wind speeds limits confidence in fire weather concerns for any one region. ..Moore.. 06/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Fire weather concerns appear limited through next weekend across the CONUS. Long-range guidance continues to show a transition to a more progressive upper-level pattern heading into next week with multiple shortwave troughs propagating across the central and eastern CONUS. This will maintain rain chances for most regions with the exception of the West Coast/Pacific Northwest where ensemble probabilities for wetting rainfall remain low through late next week. Despite dry conditions, long-range solutions do not show any strong signals for critical fire weather regimes along the West Coast/Pacific Northwest. Elsewhere, a combination of moist fuels, upcoming rain chances, and/or limited signals for critical wind speeds limits confidence in fire weather concerns for any one region. ..Moore.. 06/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Fire weather concerns appear limited through next weekend across the CONUS. Long-range guidance continues to show a transition to a more progressive upper-level pattern heading into next week with multiple shortwave troughs propagating across the central and eastern CONUS. This will maintain rain chances for most regions with the exception of the West Coast/Pacific Northwest where ensemble probabilities for wetting rainfall remain low through late next week. Despite dry conditions, long-range solutions do not show any strong signals for critical fire weather regimes along the West Coast/Pacific Northwest. Elsewhere, a combination of moist fuels, upcoming rain chances, and/or limited signals for critical wind speeds limits confidence in fire weather concerns for any one region. ..Moore.. 06/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TEXAS TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest, mainly from midday to early evening Tuesday. ...Texas to the Great Lakes... A southern stream upper shortwave trough over the southern/central High Plains will merge with the northern stream shortwave trough over the northern Plains on Tuesday as both features develop eastward toward the MS Valley. As this occurs, southwesterly flow aloft will increase from the Mid-MS Valley to the Great Lakes, with weaker west/southwesterly deep-layer flow extending southwestward into the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front extending from northwest WI into central KS will develop east/southeast through the period, becoming positioned from northern lower MI to central TX by Wednesday morning. A 40-50 kt southwesterly low-level jet from the southern Plains into the Great Lakes region will maintain a plume of rich boundary layer moisture from OK/TX into WI ahead of the surface front. However, cloud cover may limit stronger heating with northward extent from the Mid-MS Valley into WI. As a result, stronger instability will likely remain confined from southwest MO into parts of OK/TX. Additionally, warm 500 mb temperatures will result in poor lapse rates. Nevertheless, sufficient MLCAPE and effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt will support isolated to widely scattered severe storm potential from northeast MO into WI. Further south from central/eastern KS/OK into southwest MO and southward into parts of TX, stronger instability will be present, but vertical shear will be more modest. As a result, storm mode may be somewhat messy with initial cells becoming clusters quickly. As the surface cold front develops southeast through the late afternoon and evening, some linear segments could also develop. Damaging gusts and hail appear to be the most probable storm hazards at this time. ..Leitman.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TEXAS TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest, mainly from midday to early evening Tuesday. ...Texas to the Great Lakes... A southern stream upper shortwave trough over the southern/central High Plains will merge with the northern stream shortwave trough over the northern Plains on Tuesday as both features develop eastward toward the MS Valley. As this occurs, southwesterly flow aloft will increase from the Mid-MS Valley to the Great Lakes, with weaker west/southwesterly deep-layer flow extending southwestward into the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front extending from northwest WI into central KS will develop east/southeast through the period, becoming positioned from northern lower MI to central TX by Wednesday morning. A 40-50 kt southwesterly low-level jet from the southern Plains into the Great Lakes region will maintain a plume of rich boundary layer moisture from OK/TX into WI ahead of the surface front. However, cloud cover may limit stronger heating with northward extent from the Mid-MS Valley into WI. As a result, stronger instability will likely remain confined from southwest MO into parts of OK/TX. Additionally, warm 500 mb temperatures will result in poor lapse rates. Nevertheless, sufficient MLCAPE and effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt will support isolated to widely scattered severe storm potential from northeast MO into WI. Further south from central/eastern KS/OK into southwest MO and southward into parts of TX, stronger instability will be present, but vertical shear will be more modest. As a result, storm mode may be somewhat messy with initial cells becoming clusters quickly. As the surface cold front develops southeast through the late afternoon and evening, some linear segments could also develop. Damaging gusts and hail appear to be the most probable storm hazards at this time. ..Leitman.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TEXAS TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest, mainly from midday to early evening Tuesday. ...Texas to the Great Lakes... A southern stream upper shortwave trough over the southern/central High Plains will merge with the northern stream shortwave trough over the northern Plains on Tuesday as both features develop eastward toward the MS Valley. As this occurs, southwesterly flow aloft will increase from the Mid-MS Valley to the Great Lakes, with weaker west/southwesterly deep-layer flow extending southwestward into the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front extending from northwest WI into central KS will develop east/southeast through the period, becoming positioned from northern lower MI to central TX by Wednesday morning. A 40-50 kt southwesterly low-level jet from the southern Plains into the Great Lakes region will maintain a plume of rich boundary layer moisture from OK/TX into WI ahead of the surface front. However, cloud cover may limit stronger heating with northward extent from the Mid-MS Valley into WI. As a result, stronger instability will likely remain confined from southwest MO into parts of OK/TX. Additionally, warm 500 mb temperatures will result in poor lapse rates. Nevertheless, sufficient MLCAPE and effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt will support isolated to widely scattered severe storm potential from northeast MO into WI. Further south from central/eastern KS/OK into southwest MO and southward into parts of TX, stronger instability will be present, but vertical shear will be more modest. As a result, storm mode may be somewhat messy with initial cells becoming clusters quickly. As the surface cold front develops southeast through the late afternoon and evening, some linear segments could also develop. Damaging gusts and hail appear to be the most probable storm hazards at this time. ..Leitman.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TEXAS TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest, mainly from midday to early evening Tuesday. ...Texas to the Great Lakes... A southern stream upper shortwave trough over the southern/central High Plains will merge with the northern stream shortwave trough over the northern Plains on Tuesday as both features develop eastward toward the MS Valley. As this occurs, southwesterly flow aloft will increase from the Mid-MS Valley to the Great Lakes, with weaker west/southwesterly deep-layer flow extending southwestward into the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front extending from northwest WI into central KS will develop east/southeast through the period, becoming positioned from northern lower MI to central TX by Wednesday morning. A 40-50 kt southwesterly low-level jet from the southern Plains into the Great Lakes region will maintain a plume of rich boundary layer moisture from OK/TX into WI ahead of the surface front. However, cloud cover may limit stronger heating with northward extent from the Mid-MS Valley into WI. As a result, stronger instability will likely remain confined from southwest MO into parts of OK/TX. Additionally, warm 500 mb temperatures will result in poor lapse rates. Nevertheless, sufficient MLCAPE and effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt will support isolated to widely scattered severe storm potential from northeast MO into WI. Further south from central/eastern KS/OK into southwest MO and southward into parts of TX, stronger instability will be present, but vertical shear will be more modest. As a result, storm mode may be somewhat messy with initial cells becoming clusters quickly. As the surface cold front develops southeast through the late afternoon and evening, some linear segments could also develop. Damaging gusts and hail appear to be the most probable storm hazards at this time. ..Leitman.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TEXAS TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest, mainly from midday to early evening Tuesday. ...Texas to the Great Lakes... A southern stream upper shortwave trough over the southern/central High Plains will merge with the northern stream shortwave trough over the northern Plains on Tuesday as both features develop eastward toward the MS Valley. As this occurs, southwesterly flow aloft will increase from the Mid-MS Valley to the Great Lakes, with weaker west/southwesterly deep-layer flow extending southwestward into the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front extending from northwest WI into central KS will develop east/southeast through the period, becoming positioned from northern lower MI to central TX by Wednesday morning. A 40-50 kt southwesterly low-level jet from the southern Plains into the Great Lakes region will maintain a plume of rich boundary layer moisture from OK/TX into WI ahead of the surface front. However, cloud cover may limit stronger heating with northward extent from the Mid-MS Valley into WI. As a result, stronger instability will likely remain confined from southwest MO into parts of OK/TX. Additionally, warm 500 mb temperatures will result in poor lapse rates. Nevertheless, sufficient MLCAPE and effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt will support isolated to widely scattered severe storm potential from northeast MO into WI. Further south from central/eastern KS/OK into southwest MO and southward into parts of TX, stronger instability will be present, but vertical shear will be more modest. As a result, storm mode may be somewhat messy with initial cells becoming clusters quickly. As the surface cold front develops southeast through the late afternoon and evening, some linear segments could also develop. Damaging gusts and hail appear to be the most probable storm hazards at this time. ..Leitman.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TEXAS TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest, mainly from midday to early evening Tuesday. ...Texas to the Great Lakes... A southern stream upper shortwave trough over the southern/central High Plains will merge with the northern stream shortwave trough over the northern Plains on Tuesday as both features develop eastward toward the MS Valley. As this occurs, southwesterly flow aloft will increase from the Mid-MS Valley to the Great Lakes, with weaker west/southwesterly deep-layer flow extending southwestward into the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front extending from northwest WI into central KS will develop east/southeast through the period, becoming positioned from northern lower MI to central TX by Wednesday morning. A 40-50 kt southwesterly low-level jet from the southern Plains into the Great Lakes region will maintain a plume of rich boundary layer moisture from OK/TX into WI ahead of the surface front. However, cloud cover may limit stronger heating with northward extent from the Mid-MS Valley into WI. As a result, stronger instability will likely remain confined from southwest MO into parts of OK/TX. Additionally, warm 500 mb temperatures will result in poor lapse rates. Nevertheless, sufficient MLCAPE and effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt will support isolated to widely scattered severe storm potential from northeast MO into WI. Further south from central/eastern KS/OK into southwest MO and southward into parts of TX, stronger instability will be present, but vertical shear will be more modest. As a result, storm mode may be somewhat messy with initial cells becoming clusters quickly. As the surface cold front develops southeast through the late afternoon and evening, some linear segments could also develop. Damaging gusts and hail appear to be the most probable storm hazards at this time. ..Leitman.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TEXAS TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest, mainly from midday to early evening Tuesday. ...Texas to the Great Lakes... A southern stream upper shortwave trough over the southern/central High Plains will merge with the northern stream shortwave trough over the northern Plains on Tuesday as both features develop eastward toward the MS Valley. As this occurs, southwesterly flow aloft will increase from the Mid-MS Valley to the Great Lakes, with weaker west/southwesterly deep-layer flow extending southwestward into the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front extending from northwest WI into central KS will develop east/southeast through the period, becoming positioned from northern lower MI to central TX by Wednesday morning. A 40-50 kt southwesterly low-level jet from the southern Plains into the Great Lakes region will maintain a plume of rich boundary layer moisture from OK/TX into WI ahead of the surface front. However, cloud cover may limit stronger heating with northward extent from the Mid-MS Valley into WI. As a result, stronger instability will likely remain confined from southwest MO into parts of OK/TX. Additionally, warm 500 mb temperatures will result in poor lapse rates. Nevertheless, sufficient MLCAPE and effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt will support isolated to widely scattered severe storm potential from northeast MO into WI. Further south from central/eastern KS/OK into southwest MO and southward into parts of TX, stronger instability will be present, but vertical shear will be more modest. As a result, storm mode may be somewhat messy with initial cells becoming clusters quickly. As the surface cold front develops southeast through the late afternoon and evening, some linear segments could also develop. Damaging gusts and hail appear to be the most probable storm hazards at this time. ..Leitman.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TEXAS TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest, mainly from midday to early evening Tuesday. ...Texas to the Great Lakes... A southern stream upper shortwave trough over the southern/central High Plains will merge with the northern stream shortwave trough over the northern Plains on Tuesday as both features develop eastward toward the MS Valley. As this occurs, southwesterly flow aloft will increase from the Mid-MS Valley to the Great Lakes, with weaker west/southwesterly deep-layer flow extending southwestward into the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front extending from northwest WI into central KS will develop east/southeast through the period, becoming positioned from northern lower MI to central TX by Wednesday morning. A 40-50 kt southwesterly low-level jet from the southern Plains into the Great Lakes region will maintain a plume of rich boundary layer moisture from OK/TX into WI ahead of the surface front. However, cloud cover may limit stronger heating with northward extent from the Mid-MS Valley into WI. As a result, stronger instability will likely remain confined from southwest MO into parts of OK/TX. Additionally, warm 500 mb temperatures will result in poor lapse rates. Nevertheless, sufficient MLCAPE and effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt will support isolated to widely scattered severe storm potential from northeast MO into WI. Further south from central/eastern KS/OK into southwest MO and southward into parts of TX, stronger instability will be present, but vertical shear will be more modest. As a result, storm mode may be somewhat messy with initial cells becoming clusters quickly. As the surface cold front develops southeast through the late afternoon and evening, some linear segments could also develop. Damaging gusts and hail appear to be the most probable storm hazards at this time. ..Leitman.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TEXAS TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest, mainly from midday to early evening Tuesday. ...Texas to the Great Lakes... A southern stream upper shortwave trough over the southern/central High Plains will merge with the northern stream shortwave trough over the northern Plains on Tuesday as both features develop eastward toward the MS Valley. As this occurs, southwesterly flow aloft will increase from the Mid-MS Valley to the Great Lakes, with weaker west/southwesterly deep-layer flow extending southwestward into the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front extending from northwest WI into central KS will develop east/southeast through the period, becoming positioned from northern lower MI to central TX by Wednesday morning. A 40-50 kt southwesterly low-level jet from the southern Plains into the Great Lakes region will maintain a plume of rich boundary layer moisture from OK/TX into WI ahead of the surface front. However, cloud cover may limit stronger heating with northward extent from the Mid-MS Valley into WI. As a result, stronger instability will likely remain confined from southwest MO into parts of OK/TX. Additionally, warm 500 mb temperatures will result in poor lapse rates. Nevertheless, sufficient MLCAPE and effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt will support isolated to widely scattered severe storm potential from northeast MO into WI. Further south from central/eastern KS/OK into southwest MO and southward into parts of TX, stronger instability will be present, but vertical shear will be more modest. As a result, storm mode may be somewhat messy with initial cells becoming clusters quickly. As the surface cold front develops southeast through the late afternoon and evening, some linear segments could also develop. Damaging gusts and hail appear to be the most probable storm hazards at this time. ..Leitman.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TEXAS TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest, mainly from midday to early evening Tuesday. ...Texas to the Great Lakes... A southern stream upper shortwave trough over the southern/central High Plains will merge with the northern stream shortwave trough over the northern Plains on Tuesday as both features develop eastward toward the MS Valley. As this occurs, southwesterly flow aloft will increase from the Mid-MS Valley to the Great Lakes, with weaker west/southwesterly deep-layer flow extending southwestward into the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front extending from northwest WI into central KS will develop east/southeast through the period, becoming positioned from northern lower MI to central TX by Wednesday morning. A 40-50 kt southwesterly low-level jet from the southern Plains into the Great Lakes region will maintain a plume of rich boundary layer moisture from OK/TX into WI ahead of the surface front. However, cloud cover may limit stronger heating with northward extent from the Mid-MS Valley into WI. As a result, stronger instability will likely remain confined from southwest MO into parts of OK/TX. Additionally, warm 500 mb temperatures will result in poor lapse rates. Nevertheless, sufficient MLCAPE and effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt will support isolated to widely scattered severe storm potential from northeast MO into WI. Further south from central/eastern KS/OK into southwest MO and southward into parts of TX, stronger instability will be present, but vertical shear will be more modest. As a result, storm mode may be somewhat messy with initial cells becoming clusters quickly. As the surface cold front develops southeast through the late afternoon and evening, some linear segments could also develop. Damaging gusts and hail appear to be the most probable storm hazards at this time. ..Leitman.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TEXAS TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest, mainly from midday to early evening Tuesday. ...Texas to the Great Lakes... A southern stream upper shortwave trough over the southern/central High Plains will merge with the northern stream shortwave trough over the northern Plains on Tuesday as both features develop eastward toward the MS Valley. As this occurs, southwesterly flow aloft will increase from the Mid-MS Valley to the Great Lakes, with weaker west/southwesterly deep-layer flow extending southwestward into the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front extending from northwest WI into central KS will develop east/southeast through the period, becoming positioned from northern lower MI to central TX by Wednesday morning. A 40-50 kt southwesterly low-level jet from the southern Plains into the Great Lakes region will maintain a plume of rich boundary layer moisture from OK/TX into WI ahead of the surface front. However, cloud cover may limit stronger heating with northward extent from the Mid-MS Valley into WI. As a result, stronger instability will likely remain confined from southwest MO into parts of OK/TX. Additionally, warm 500 mb temperatures will result in poor lapse rates. Nevertheless, sufficient MLCAPE and effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt will support isolated to widely scattered severe storm potential from northeast MO into WI. Further south from central/eastern KS/OK into southwest MO and southward into parts of TX, stronger instability will be present, but vertical shear will be more modest. As a result, storm mode may be somewhat messy with initial cells becoming clusters quickly. As the surface cold front develops southeast through the late afternoon and evening, some linear segments could also develop. Damaging gusts and hail appear to be the most probable storm hazards at this time. ..Leitman.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TEXAS TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest, mainly from midday to early evening Tuesday. ...Texas to the Great Lakes... A southern stream upper shortwave trough over the southern/central High Plains will merge with the northern stream shortwave trough over the northern Plains on Tuesday as both features develop eastward toward the MS Valley. As this occurs, southwesterly flow aloft will increase from the Mid-MS Valley to the Great Lakes, with weaker west/southwesterly deep-layer flow extending southwestward into the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front extending from northwest WI into central KS will develop east/southeast through the period, becoming positioned from northern lower MI to central TX by Wednesday morning. A 40-50 kt southwesterly low-level jet from the southern Plains into the Great Lakes region will maintain a plume of rich boundary layer moisture from OK/TX into WI ahead of the surface front. However, cloud cover may limit stronger heating with northward extent from the Mid-MS Valley into WI. As a result, stronger instability will likely remain confined from southwest MO into parts of OK/TX. Additionally, warm 500 mb temperatures will result in poor lapse rates. Nevertheless, sufficient MLCAPE and effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt will support isolated to widely scattered severe storm potential from northeast MO into WI. Further south from central/eastern KS/OK into southwest MO and southward into parts of TX, stronger instability will be present, but vertical shear will be more modest. As a result, storm mode may be somewhat messy with initial cells becoming clusters quickly. As the surface cold front develops southeast through the late afternoon and evening, some linear segments could also develop. Damaging gusts and hail appear to be the most probable storm hazards at this time. ..Leitman.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TEXAS TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest, mainly from midday to early evening Tuesday. ...Texas to the Great Lakes... A southern stream upper shortwave trough over the southern/central High Plains will merge with the northern stream shortwave trough over the northern Plains on Tuesday as both features develop eastward toward the MS Valley. As this occurs, southwesterly flow aloft will increase from the Mid-MS Valley to the Great Lakes, with weaker west/southwesterly deep-layer flow extending southwestward into the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front extending from northwest WI into central KS will develop east/southeast through the period, becoming positioned from northern lower MI to central TX by Wednesday morning. A 40-50 kt southwesterly low-level jet from the southern Plains into the Great Lakes region will maintain a plume of rich boundary layer moisture from OK/TX into WI ahead of the surface front. However, cloud cover may limit stronger heating with northward extent from the Mid-MS Valley into WI. As a result, stronger instability will likely remain confined from southwest MO into parts of OK/TX. Additionally, warm 500 mb temperatures will result in poor lapse rates. Nevertheless, sufficient MLCAPE and effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt will support isolated to widely scattered severe storm potential from northeast MO into WI. Further south from central/eastern KS/OK into southwest MO and southward into parts of TX, stronger instability will be present, but vertical shear will be more modest. As a result, storm mode may be somewhat messy with initial cells becoming clusters quickly. As the surface cold front develops southeast through the late afternoon and evening, some linear segments could also develop. Damaging gusts and hail appear to be the most probable storm hazards at this time. ..Leitman.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TEXAS TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest, mainly from midday to early evening Tuesday. ...Texas to the Great Lakes... A southern stream upper shortwave trough over the southern/central High Plains will merge with the northern stream shortwave trough over the northern Plains on Tuesday as both features develop eastward toward the MS Valley. As this occurs, southwesterly flow aloft will increase from the Mid-MS Valley to the Great Lakes, with weaker west/southwesterly deep-layer flow extending southwestward into the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front extending from northwest WI into central KS will develop east/southeast through the period, becoming positioned from northern lower MI to central TX by Wednesday morning. A 40-50 kt southwesterly low-level jet from the southern Plains into the Great Lakes region will maintain a plume of rich boundary layer moisture from OK/TX into WI ahead of the surface front. However, cloud cover may limit stronger heating with northward extent from the Mid-MS Valley into WI. As a result, stronger instability will likely remain confined from southwest MO into parts of OK/TX. Additionally, warm 500 mb temperatures will result in poor lapse rates. Nevertheless, sufficient MLCAPE and effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt will support isolated to widely scattered severe storm potential from northeast MO into WI. Further south from central/eastern KS/OK into southwest MO and southward into parts of TX, stronger instability will be present, but vertical shear will be more modest. As a result, storm mode may be somewhat messy with initial cells becoming clusters quickly. As the surface cold front develops southeast through the late afternoon and evening, some linear segments could also develop. Damaging gusts and hail appear to be the most probable storm hazards at this time. ..Leitman.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TEXAS TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest, mainly from midday to early evening Tuesday. ...Texas to the Great Lakes... A southern stream upper shortwave trough over the southern/central High Plains will merge with the northern stream shortwave trough over the northern Plains on Tuesday as both features develop eastward toward the MS Valley. As this occurs, southwesterly flow aloft will increase from the Mid-MS Valley to the Great Lakes, with weaker west/southwesterly deep-layer flow extending southwestward into the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front extending from northwest WI into central KS will develop east/southeast through the period, becoming positioned from northern lower MI to central TX by Wednesday morning. A 40-50 kt southwesterly low-level jet from the southern Plains into the Great Lakes region will maintain a plume of rich boundary layer moisture from OK/TX into WI ahead of the surface front. However, cloud cover may limit stronger heating with northward extent from the Mid-MS Valley into WI. As a result, stronger instability will likely remain confined from southwest MO into parts of OK/TX. Additionally, warm 500 mb temperatures will result in poor lapse rates. Nevertheless, sufficient MLCAPE and effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt will support isolated to widely scattered severe storm potential from northeast MO into WI. Further south from central/eastern KS/OK into southwest MO and southward into parts of TX, stronger instability will be present, but vertical shear will be more modest. As a result, storm mode may be somewhat messy with initial cells becoming clusters quickly. As the surface cold front develops southeast through the late afternoon and evening, some linear segments could also develop. Damaging gusts and hail appear to be the most probable storm hazards at this time. ..Leitman.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TEXAS TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest, mainly from midday to early evening Tuesday. ...Texas to the Great Lakes... A southern stream upper shortwave trough over the southern/central High Plains will merge with the northern stream shortwave trough over the northern Plains on Tuesday as both features develop eastward toward the MS Valley. As this occurs, southwesterly flow aloft will increase from the Mid-MS Valley to the Great Lakes, with weaker west/southwesterly deep-layer flow extending southwestward into the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front extending from northwest WI into central KS will develop east/southeast through the period, becoming positioned from northern lower MI to central TX by Wednesday morning. A 40-50 kt southwesterly low-level jet from the southern Plains into the Great Lakes region will maintain a plume of rich boundary layer moisture from OK/TX into WI ahead of the surface front. However, cloud cover may limit stronger heating with northward extent from the Mid-MS Valley into WI. As a result, stronger instability will likely remain confined from southwest MO into parts of OK/TX. Additionally, warm 500 mb temperatures will result in poor lapse rates. Nevertheless, sufficient MLCAPE and effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt will support isolated to widely scattered severe storm potential from northeast MO into WI. Further south from central/eastern KS/OK into southwest MO and southward into parts of TX, stronger instability will be present, but vertical shear will be more modest. As a result, storm mode may be somewhat messy with initial cells becoming clusters quickly. As the surface cold front develops southeast through the late afternoon and evening, some linear segments could also develop. Damaging gusts and hail appear to be the most probable storm hazards at this time. ..Leitman.. 06/01/2025 Read more