Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered large hail and isolated damaging winds are possible this afternoon and evening across central and east Texas. More isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Middle Tennessee Valley and Carolinas, High Plains, northern Rockies, and south Florida. ...Central/East Texas... A residual small cluster of storms has persisted through late morning across northeast Texas. Additional and increasingly surface-based storm development will be possible this afternoon, particularly into mid/late afternoon. This will be focused where outflow/differential heating influences interface with an increasingly unstable (2500+ J/kg MLCAPE) environment near a northwest/southeast-oriented synoptic boundary and related instability gradient. Northwesterly deep-layer shear of 35-40 kt will be sufficient for organized storms, including supercells, posing a risk for large hail and potentially damaging wind gusts. A sustained storm interacting with residual/modifying outflow could have some tornado potential in the presence of locally-augmented low-level shear. These storms may cluster later today, or otherwise persist south-southeastward toward east-central/southeast Texas through early and mid-evening including the I-35/I-45 corridors. ...Tennessee to the Carolinas... Despite relatively modest low-level moisture, diurnal heating combined with seasonably cool temperatures aloft associated with a deep upper-level trough will allow for weak to moderate destabilization ahead of a weak surface wave and advancing front. Isolated to scattered storm development is expected this afternoon, with somewhat greater coverage expected with eastward extent centered on parts of North Carolina. Modestly favorable effective shear (generally 25-30 kt) may support occasionally organized storms capable of isolated damaging wind and hail. Any longer-lived clusters could pose a more concentrated wind-damage threat. ...Northern Rockies and northern High Plains... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move eastward from the Pacific Northwest toward the northern Rockies by this evening. Weak to locally moderate buoyancy and increasing deep-layer shear will support the potential for somewhat organized cells/clusters with an attendant threat of isolated severe gusts and hail. This development should generally focus near the Montana/Idaho/Wyoming border vicinity as well as near/east of the Bighorns. ...South Florida... Influenced by moderately strong westerlies aloft, some strong/locally severe storms may remain possible today along and south of a boundary that has been effectively reinforced by early day storms. ...Eastern Colorado/New Mexico... Scattered storms are again expected this afternoon and evening along and east of the higher terrain in eastern Colorado/New Mexico. While deep-layer flow/shear will be relatively modest, guidance suggests some increase in low-level moisture and instability by afternoon. Initial storms could pose a threat for isolated hail and strong to severe gusts. There is some potential for one or more loosely organized clusters to develop by evening and spread eastward with strong to locally severe outflow winds. ...Southern California into southern/central Arizona... A mid/upper-level cyclone will move northeastward into parts of southern California/Arizona later today. Cool temperatures aloft will overspread the region, but relatively widespread cloudiness and precipitation will tend to limit destabilization. If pockets of locally stronger heating/destabilization can develop, then a few strong storms could occur. ...Great Basin... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon from parts of Nevada into western Utah. Buoyancy and shear are expected to remain weak, and organized thunderstorms are not expected, however localized strong outflow gusts will be possible within this regime through early evening. ..Guyer/Marsh.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered large hail and isolated damaging winds are possible this afternoon and evening across central and east Texas. More isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Middle Tennessee Valley and Carolinas, High Plains, northern Rockies, and south Florida. ...Central/East Texas... A residual small cluster of storms has persisted through late morning across northeast Texas. Additional and increasingly surface-based storm development will be possible this afternoon, particularly into mid/late afternoon. This will be focused where outflow/differential heating influences interface with an increasingly unstable (2500+ J/kg MLCAPE) environment near a northwest/southeast-oriented synoptic boundary and related instability gradient. Northwesterly deep-layer shear of 35-40 kt will be sufficient for organized storms, including supercells, posing a risk for large hail and potentially damaging wind gusts. A sustained storm interacting with residual/modifying outflow could have some tornado potential in the presence of locally-augmented low-level shear. These storms may cluster later today, or otherwise persist south-southeastward toward east-central/southeast Texas through early and mid-evening including the I-35/I-45 corridors. ...Tennessee to the Carolinas... Despite relatively modest low-level moisture, diurnal heating combined with seasonably cool temperatures aloft associated with a deep upper-level trough will allow for weak to moderate destabilization ahead of a weak surface wave and advancing front. Isolated to scattered storm development is expected this afternoon, with somewhat greater coverage expected with eastward extent centered on parts of North Carolina. Modestly favorable effective shear (generally 25-30 kt) may support occasionally organized storms capable of isolated damaging wind and hail. Any longer-lived clusters could pose a more concentrated wind-damage threat. ...Northern Rockies and northern High Plains... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move eastward from the Pacific Northwest toward the northern Rockies by this evening. Weak to locally moderate buoyancy and increasing deep-layer shear will support the potential for somewhat organized cells/clusters with an attendant threat of isolated severe gusts and hail. This development should generally focus near the Montana/Idaho/Wyoming border vicinity as well as near/east of the Bighorns. ...South Florida... Influenced by moderately strong westerlies aloft, some strong/locally severe storms may remain possible today along and south of a boundary that has been effectively reinforced by early day storms. ...Eastern Colorado/New Mexico... Scattered storms are again expected this afternoon and evening along and east of the higher terrain in eastern Colorado/New Mexico. While deep-layer flow/shear will be relatively modest, guidance suggests some increase in low-level moisture and instability by afternoon. Initial storms could pose a threat for isolated hail and strong to severe gusts. There is some potential for one or more loosely organized clusters to develop by evening and spread eastward with strong to locally severe outflow winds. ...Southern California into southern/central Arizona... A mid/upper-level cyclone will move northeastward into parts of southern California/Arizona later today. Cool temperatures aloft will overspread the region, but relatively widespread cloudiness and precipitation will tend to limit destabilization. If pockets of locally stronger heating/destabilization can develop, then a few strong storms could occur. ...Great Basin... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon from parts of Nevada into western Utah. Buoyancy and shear are expected to remain weak, and organized thunderstorms are not expected, however localized strong outflow gusts will be possible within this regime through early evening. ..Guyer/Marsh.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0955 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Morning observations show RH values already falling into the teens to low 20s across western NV with further RH reductions expected as diurnal heating and downslope warming/drying increase through afternoon. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 06/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue to move through the Northwest with the southern extension of the trough eventually cutting off west of the northern California coast. Near Baja, the upper cyclone will begin to lift into the Southwest ahead of the Northwest/Great Basin trough. A front will stall in the northern Great Basin with a modest surface low deepening along the boundary. ...Nevada... Elevated to locally critical fire weather appears possible in northwest Nevada in the lee of the Sierra. Downslope winds of 15-25 mph will coincide with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. Duration of the 20+ mph winds (ensemble guidance shows this quite well) is the main limiting factor for adding a critical area. Winds in southern Nevada will also increase during the afternoon. Low-levels will be dry, but moisture/cloud influx driven by the approaching cyclone will generally limit the duration of fire weather concerns. Still, locally elevated conditions are possible, especially along the northern fringe of clouds/moisture. Scattered convection with at least some embedded thunderstorms are also possible across much of Nevada. PW values will generally be too high with southern extent and coverage/fuel receptiveness is questionable farther north. Dry lightning risk continues to be too low for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0955 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Morning observations show RH values already falling into the teens to low 20s across western NV with further RH reductions expected as diurnal heating and downslope warming/drying increase through afternoon. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 06/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue to move through the Northwest with the southern extension of the trough eventually cutting off west of the northern California coast. Near Baja, the upper cyclone will begin to lift into the Southwest ahead of the Northwest/Great Basin trough. A front will stall in the northern Great Basin with a modest surface low deepening along the boundary. ...Nevada... Elevated to locally critical fire weather appears possible in northwest Nevada in the lee of the Sierra. Downslope winds of 15-25 mph will coincide with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. Duration of the 20+ mph winds (ensemble guidance shows this quite well) is the main limiting factor for adding a critical area. Winds in southern Nevada will also increase during the afternoon. Low-levels will be dry, but moisture/cloud influx driven by the approaching cyclone will generally limit the duration of fire weather concerns. Still, locally elevated conditions are possible, especially along the northern fringe of clouds/moisture. Scattered convection with at least some embedded thunderstorms are also possible across much of Nevada. PW values will generally be too high with southern extent and coverage/fuel receptiveness is questionable farther north. Dry lightning risk continues to be too low for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0955 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Morning observations show RH values already falling into the teens to low 20s across western NV with further RH reductions expected as diurnal heating and downslope warming/drying increase through afternoon. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 06/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue to move through the Northwest with the southern extension of the trough eventually cutting off west of the northern California coast. Near Baja, the upper cyclone will begin to lift into the Southwest ahead of the Northwest/Great Basin trough. A front will stall in the northern Great Basin with a modest surface low deepening along the boundary. ...Nevada... Elevated to locally critical fire weather appears possible in northwest Nevada in the lee of the Sierra. Downslope winds of 15-25 mph will coincide with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. Duration of the 20+ mph winds (ensemble guidance shows this quite well) is the main limiting factor for adding a critical area. Winds in southern Nevada will also increase during the afternoon. Low-levels will be dry, but moisture/cloud influx driven by the approaching cyclone will generally limit the duration of fire weather concerns. Still, locally elevated conditions are possible, especially along the northern fringe of clouds/moisture. Scattered convection with at least some embedded thunderstorms are also possible across much of Nevada. PW values will generally be too high with southern extent and coverage/fuel receptiveness is questionable farther north. Dry lightning risk continues to be too low for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0955 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Morning observations show RH values already falling into the teens to low 20s across western NV with further RH reductions expected as diurnal heating and downslope warming/drying increase through afternoon. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 06/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue to move through the Northwest with the southern extension of the trough eventually cutting off west of the northern California coast. Near Baja, the upper cyclone will begin to lift into the Southwest ahead of the Northwest/Great Basin trough. A front will stall in the northern Great Basin with a modest surface low deepening along the boundary. ...Nevada... Elevated to locally critical fire weather appears possible in northwest Nevada in the lee of the Sierra. Downslope winds of 15-25 mph will coincide with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. Duration of the 20+ mph winds (ensemble guidance shows this quite well) is the main limiting factor for adding a critical area. Winds in southern Nevada will also increase during the afternoon. Low-levels will be dry, but moisture/cloud influx driven by the approaching cyclone will generally limit the duration of fire weather concerns. Still, locally elevated conditions are possible, especially along the northern fringe of clouds/moisture. Scattered convection with at least some embedded thunderstorms are also possible across much of Nevada. PW values will generally be too high with southern extent and coverage/fuel receptiveness is questionable farther north. Dry lightning risk continues to be too low for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0955 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Morning observations show RH values already falling into the teens to low 20s across western NV with further RH reductions expected as diurnal heating and downslope warming/drying increase through afternoon. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 06/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue to move through the Northwest with the southern extension of the trough eventually cutting off west of the northern California coast. Near Baja, the upper cyclone will begin to lift into the Southwest ahead of the Northwest/Great Basin trough. A front will stall in the northern Great Basin with a modest surface low deepening along the boundary. ...Nevada... Elevated to locally critical fire weather appears possible in northwest Nevada in the lee of the Sierra. Downslope winds of 15-25 mph will coincide with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. Duration of the 20+ mph winds (ensemble guidance shows this quite well) is the main limiting factor for adding a critical area. Winds in southern Nevada will also increase during the afternoon. Low-levels will be dry, but moisture/cloud influx driven by the approaching cyclone will generally limit the duration of fire weather concerns. Still, locally elevated conditions are possible, especially along the northern fringe of clouds/moisture. Scattered convection with at least some embedded thunderstorms are also possible across much of Nevada. PW values will generally be too high with southern extent and coverage/fuel receptiveness is questionable farther north. Dry lightning risk continues to be too low for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0955 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Morning observations show RH values already falling into the teens to low 20s across western NV with further RH reductions expected as diurnal heating and downslope warming/drying increase through afternoon. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 06/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue to move through the Northwest with the southern extension of the trough eventually cutting off west of the northern California coast. Near Baja, the upper cyclone will begin to lift into the Southwest ahead of the Northwest/Great Basin trough. A front will stall in the northern Great Basin with a modest surface low deepening along the boundary. ...Nevada... Elevated to locally critical fire weather appears possible in northwest Nevada in the lee of the Sierra. Downslope winds of 15-25 mph will coincide with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. Duration of the 20+ mph winds (ensemble guidance shows this quite well) is the main limiting factor for adding a critical area. Winds in southern Nevada will also increase during the afternoon. Low-levels will be dry, but moisture/cloud influx driven by the approaching cyclone will generally limit the duration of fire weather concerns. Still, locally elevated conditions are possible, especially along the northern fringe of clouds/moisture. Scattered convection with at least some embedded thunderstorms are also possible across much of Nevada. PW values will generally be too high with southern extent and coverage/fuel receptiveness is questionable farther north. Dry lightning risk continues to be too low for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0955 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Morning observations show RH values already falling into the teens to low 20s across western NV with further RH reductions expected as diurnal heating and downslope warming/drying increase through afternoon. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 06/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue to move through the Northwest with the southern extension of the trough eventually cutting off west of the northern California coast. Near Baja, the upper cyclone will begin to lift into the Southwest ahead of the Northwest/Great Basin trough. A front will stall in the northern Great Basin with a modest surface low deepening along the boundary. ...Nevada... Elevated to locally critical fire weather appears possible in northwest Nevada in the lee of the Sierra. Downslope winds of 15-25 mph will coincide with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. Duration of the 20+ mph winds (ensemble guidance shows this quite well) is the main limiting factor for adding a critical area. Winds in southern Nevada will also increase during the afternoon. Low-levels will be dry, but moisture/cloud influx driven by the approaching cyclone will generally limit the duration of fire weather concerns. Still, locally elevated conditions are possible, especially along the northern fringe of clouds/moisture. Scattered convection with at least some embedded thunderstorms are also possible across much of Nevada. PW values will generally be too high with southern extent and coverage/fuel receptiveness is questionable farther north. Dry lightning risk continues to be too low for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0955 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Morning observations show RH values already falling into the teens to low 20s across western NV with further RH reductions expected as diurnal heating and downslope warming/drying increase through afternoon. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 06/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue to move through the Northwest with the southern extension of the trough eventually cutting off west of the northern California coast. Near Baja, the upper cyclone will begin to lift into the Southwest ahead of the Northwest/Great Basin trough. A front will stall in the northern Great Basin with a modest surface low deepening along the boundary. ...Nevada... Elevated to locally critical fire weather appears possible in northwest Nevada in the lee of the Sierra. Downslope winds of 15-25 mph will coincide with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. Duration of the 20+ mph winds (ensemble guidance shows this quite well) is the main limiting factor for adding a critical area. Winds in southern Nevada will also increase during the afternoon. Low-levels will be dry, but moisture/cloud influx driven by the approaching cyclone will generally limit the duration of fire weather concerns. Still, locally elevated conditions are possible, especially along the northern fringe of clouds/moisture. Scattered convection with at least some embedded thunderstorms are also possible across much of Nevada. PW values will generally be too high with southern extent and coverage/fuel receptiveness is questionable farther north. Dry lightning risk continues to be too low for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0955 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Morning observations show RH values already falling into the teens to low 20s across western NV with further RH reductions expected as diurnal heating and downslope warming/drying increase through afternoon. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 06/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue to move through the Northwest with the southern extension of the trough eventually cutting off west of the northern California coast. Near Baja, the upper cyclone will begin to lift into the Southwest ahead of the Northwest/Great Basin trough. A front will stall in the northern Great Basin with a modest surface low deepening along the boundary. ...Nevada... Elevated to locally critical fire weather appears possible in northwest Nevada in the lee of the Sierra. Downslope winds of 15-25 mph will coincide with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. Duration of the 20+ mph winds (ensemble guidance shows this quite well) is the main limiting factor for adding a critical area. Winds in southern Nevada will also increase during the afternoon. Low-levels will be dry, but moisture/cloud influx driven by the approaching cyclone will generally limit the duration of fire weather concerns. Still, locally elevated conditions are possible, especially along the northern fringe of clouds/moisture. Scattered convection with at least some embedded thunderstorms are also possible across much of Nevada. PW values will generally be too high with southern extent and coverage/fuel receptiveness is questionable farther north. Dry lightning risk continues to be too low for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0955 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Morning observations show RH values already falling into the teens to low 20s across western NV with further RH reductions expected as diurnal heating and downslope warming/drying increase through afternoon. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 06/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue to move through the Northwest with the southern extension of the trough eventually cutting off west of the northern California coast. Near Baja, the upper cyclone will begin to lift into the Southwest ahead of the Northwest/Great Basin trough. A front will stall in the northern Great Basin with a modest surface low deepening along the boundary. ...Nevada... Elevated to locally critical fire weather appears possible in northwest Nevada in the lee of the Sierra. Downslope winds of 15-25 mph will coincide with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. Duration of the 20+ mph winds (ensemble guidance shows this quite well) is the main limiting factor for adding a critical area. Winds in southern Nevada will also increase during the afternoon. Low-levels will be dry, but moisture/cloud influx driven by the approaching cyclone will generally limit the duration of fire weather concerns. Still, locally elevated conditions are possible, especially along the northern fringe of clouds/moisture. Scattered convection with at least some embedded thunderstorms are also possible across much of Nevada. PW values will generally be too high with southern extent and coverage/fuel receptiveness is questionable farther north. Dry lightning risk continues to be too low for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0955 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Morning observations show RH values already falling into the teens to low 20s across western NV with further RH reductions expected as diurnal heating and downslope warming/drying increase through afternoon. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 06/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue to move through the Northwest with the southern extension of the trough eventually cutting off west of the northern California coast. Near Baja, the upper cyclone will begin to lift into the Southwest ahead of the Northwest/Great Basin trough. A front will stall in the northern Great Basin with a modest surface low deepening along the boundary. ...Nevada... Elevated to locally critical fire weather appears possible in northwest Nevada in the lee of the Sierra. Downslope winds of 15-25 mph will coincide with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. Duration of the 20+ mph winds (ensemble guidance shows this quite well) is the main limiting factor for adding a critical area. Winds in southern Nevada will also increase during the afternoon. Low-levels will be dry, but moisture/cloud influx driven by the approaching cyclone will generally limit the duration of fire weather concerns. Still, locally elevated conditions are possible, especially along the northern fringe of clouds/moisture. Scattered convection with at least some embedded thunderstorms are also possible across much of Nevada. PW values will generally be too high with southern extent and coverage/fuel receptiveness is questionable farther north. Dry lightning risk continues to be too low for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1060 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 1060 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0705 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Areas affected...South-central Florida Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 011205Z - 011400Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated tornado threat may continue for the next two to three hours across south-central Florida. The threat is expected to remain localized, and weather watch issuance appears unlikely, although trends will be monitored. DISCUSSION...An east-to-west band of strong thunderstorms is ongoing across south-central Florida, along a zone of somewhat focused low-level convergence. The storms are being supported by a shortwave trough that is moving through the eastern Gulf. A mid-level jet streak is analyzed by the RAP from the eastern Gulf extending eastward across the Florida Peninsula. This jet has strengthened deep-layer shear over south-central Florida into the 40 to 50 knot range, according to the RAP. This will support isolated supercell development this morning. Although RAP forecast soundings across south-central Florida suggest that low-level shear is not particularly strong, storm-relative helicity could be locally higher near the zone of low-level convergence. As a result, transient supercells could be capable of producing low to mid-level rotation, with a brief tornado possible. Marginally severe wind gusts could also occur. The threat should remain localized, and watch issuance is currently not expected. ..Broyles/Bunting.. 06/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... LAT...LON 26778042 26618143 26708180 26928189 27158176 27248149 27408071 27388023 27148010 26918011 26778042 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered large hail and isolated damaging winds are possible later today into this evening across central and east Texas. More isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the mid-Tennessee River Valley into the Carolinas, central and southern High Plains, northern Rockies, and south Florida. ...Central and eastern TX... Thunderstorms that developed earlier over northern/central OK have moved into southern OK/Red River vicinity at 13z, and have thus far remained only loosely organized. Expectations in the short term are for this area of rain/thunderstorms to continue south/southeast into north-central and northeast TX, with perhaps an isolated stronger storm posing a hail/wind threat. Redevelopment/re-intensification is anticipated this afternoon as the residual outflow encounters moderate/strong MLCAPE on the order of 2500-3000 J/kg. Northwesterly deep-layer shear averaging 35-40 kts will be sufficient for organized storms, including supercells, posing a risk for large to very large hail and damaging gusts. A sustained storm interacting with residual/modifying outflow may have some tornado potential in the presence of locally-augmented low-level shear. ...TN to the Carolinas... A quasi-stationary front is forecast to extend from eastern MO southeastward into NC by early afternoon. Despite relatively modest low-level moisture, diurnal heating combined with seasonably cold temperatures aloft associated with a deep upper-level trough will allow for weak to moderate destabilization near and south of the front. Isolated to scattered storm development is expected this afternoon, with somewhat greater coverage expected with eastward extent. Modestly favorable effective shear (generally 25-30 kt) may support occasionally organized storms capable of isolated damaging wind and hail. Any longer-lived clusters could pose a more concentrated wind-damage threat, and latest hi-res guidance suggests this may be most likely across central/eastern NC in association with a weak surface low moving east along the front. ...Eastern ID/Southwest MT/Northwest WY... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move eastward from the Pacific Northwest toward the northern Rockies by this evening. Weak to locally moderate buoyancy and increasing deep-layer shear will support the potential for somewhat organized cells/clusters with an attendant threat of isolated severe gusts and hail. Depending on the extent of diurnal heating/destabilization, a localized corridor of somewhat greater potential may evolve with the broader Marginal Risk area. ...South FL... Thunderstorms have redeveloped this morning along a low-level confluence zone, with a few stronger updrafts occasionally exhibiting low/mid-level rotation. There will be some potential for modest diurnal heating and additional destabilization before storms spread across the rest of south FL through the morning into early afternoon. Westerly mid-level flow averaging 30 kts with a weakening mid-level jet will support sufficient deep-layer shear for some storm organization and the potential for isolated damaging gusts and hail. A tornado cannot be ruled out this morning through early afternoon with any stronger/semi-discrete storm. Please refer to Mesoscale Convective Discussion 1060 for the latest short-term thinking in this area. ...Eastern CO/NM... Scattered storms are again expected this afternoon and evening long and east of the higher terrain in eastern CO/NM. While deep-layer flow/shear will be relatively modest, guidance suggests some increase in low-level moisture and instability by afternoon. Initial storms could pose a threat for isolated hail and strong to severe gusts. There is some potential for one or more loosely organized clusters to develop by evening and spread eastward with strong to locally severe outflow winds. ...Southern CA into southern/central AZ... A mid/upper-level cyclone will move northeastward into parts of southern CA/AZ later today. Cool temperatures aloft will overspread the region, but relatively widespread cloudiness and precipitation will tend to limit destabilization. If pockets of locally stronger heating/destabilization can develop, then a few strong storms will be possible. However, confidence remains too low to introduce severe probabilities at this time. ...Great Basin... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon from parts of NV into western UT. Buoyancy and shear are expected to remain weak, and organized thunderstorms are not expected, however localized strong outflow gusts will be possible within this regime through early evening. ..Bunting/Broyles.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered large hail and isolated damaging winds are possible later today into this evening across central and east Texas. More isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the mid-Tennessee River Valley into the Carolinas, central and southern High Plains, northern Rockies, and south Florida. ...Central and eastern TX... Thunderstorms that developed earlier over northern/central OK have moved into southern OK/Red River vicinity at 13z, and have thus far remained only loosely organized. Expectations in the short term are for this area of rain/thunderstorms to continue south/southeast into north-central and northeast TX, with perhaps an isolated stronger storm posing a hail/wind threat. Redevelopment/re-intensification is anticipated this afternoon as the residual outflow encounters moderate/strong MLCAPE on the order of 2500-3000 J/kg. Northwesterly deep-layer shear averaging 35-40 kts will be sufficient for organized storms, including supercells, posing a risk for large to very large hail and damaging gusts. A sustained storm interacting with residual/modifying outflow may have some tornado potential in the presence of locally-augmented low-level shear. ...TN to the Carolinas... A quasi-stationary front is forecast to extend from eastern MO southeastward into NC by early afternoon. Despite relatively modest low-level moisture, diurnal heating combined with seasonably cold temperatures aloft associated with a deep upper-level trough will allow for weak to moderate destabilization near and south of the front. Isolated to scattered storm development is expected this afternoon, with somewhat greater coverage expected with eastward extent. Modestly favorable effective shear (generally 25-30 kt) may support occasionally organized storms capable of isolated damaging wind and hail. Any longer-lived clusters could pose a more concentrated wind-damage threat, and latest hi-res guidance suggests this may be most likely across central/eastern NC in association with a weak surface low moving east along the front. ...Eastern ID/Southwest MT/Northwest WY... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move eastward from the Pacific Northwest toward the northern Rockies by this evening. Weak to locally moderate buoyancy and increasing deep-layer shear will support the potential for somewhat organized cells/clusters with an attendant threat of isolated severe gusts and hail. Depending on the extent of diurnal heating/destabilization, a localized corridor of somewhat greater potential may evolve with the broader Marginal Risk area. ...South FL... Thunderstorms have redeveloped this morning along a low-level confluence zone, with a few stronger updrafts occasionally exhibiting low/mid-level rotation. There will be some potential for modest diurnal heating and additional destabilization before storms spread across the rest of south FL through the morning into early afternoon. Westerly mid-level flow averaging 30 kts with a weakening mid-level jet will support sufficient deep-layer shear for some storm organization and the potential for isolated damaging gusts and hail. A tornado cannot be ruled out this morning through early afternoon with any stronger/semi-discrete storm. Please refer to Mesoscale Convective Discussion 1060 for the latest short-term thinking in this area. ...Eastern CO/NM... Scattered storms are again expected this afternoon and evening long and east of the higher terrain in eastern CO/NM. While deep-layer flow/shear will be relatively modest, guidance suggests some increase in low-level moisture and instability by afternoon. Initial storms could pose a threat for isolated hail and strong to severe gusts. There is some potential for one or more loosely organized clusters to develop by evening and spread eastward with strong to locally severe outflow winds. ...Southern CA into southern/central AZ... A mid/upper-level cyclone will move northeastward into parts of southern CA/AZ later today. Cool temperatures aloft will overspread the region, but relatively widespread cloudiness and precipitation will tend to limit destabilization. If pockets of locally stronger heating/destabilization can develop, then a few strong storms will be possible. However, confidence remains too low to introduce severe probabilities at this time. ...Great Basin... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon from parts of NV into western UT. Buoyancy and shear are expected to remain weak, and organized thunderstorms are not expected, however localized strong outflow gusts will be possible within this regime through early evening. ..Bunting/Broyles.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered large hail and isolated damaging winds are possible later today into this evening across central and east Texas. More isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the mid-Tennessee River Valley into the Carolinas, central and southern High Plains, northern Rockies, and south Florida. ...Central and eastern TX... Thunderstorms that developed earlier over northern/central OK have moved into southern OK/Red River vicinity at 13z, and have thus far remained only loosely organized. Expectations in the short term are for this area of rain/thunderstorms to continue south/southeast into north-central and northeast TX, with perhaps an isolated stronger storm posing a hail/wind threat. Redevelopment/re-intensification is anticipated this afternoon as the residual outflow encounters moderate/strong MLCAPE on the order of 2500-3000 J/kg. Northwesterly deep-layer shear averaging 35-40 kts will be sufficient for organized storms, including supercells, posing a risk for large to very large hail and damaging gusts. A sustained storm interacting with residual/modifying outflow may have some tornado potential in the presence of locally-augmented low-level shear. ...TN to the Carolinas... A quasi-stationary front is forecast to extend from eastern MO southeastward into NC by early afternoon. Despite relatively modest low-level moisture, diurnal heating combined with seasonably cold temperatures aloft associated with a deep upper-level trough will allow for weak to moderate destabilization near and south of the front. Isolated to scattered storm development is expected this afternoon, with somewhat greater coverage expected with eastward extent. Modestly favorable effective shear (generally 25-30 kt) may support occasionally organized storms capable of isolated damaging wind and hail. Any longer-lived clusters could pose a more concentrated wind-damage threat, and latest hi-res guidance suggests this may be most likely across central/eastern NC in association with a weak surface low moving east along the front. ...Eastern ID/Southwest MT/Northwest WY... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move eastward from the Pacific Northwest toward the northern Rockies by this evening. Weak to locally moderate buoyancy and increasing deep-layer shear will support the potential for somewhat organized cells/clusters with an attendant threat of isolated severe gusts and hail. Depending on the extent of diurnal heating/destabilization, a localized corridor of somewhat greater potential may evolve with the broader Marginal Risk area. ...South FL... Thunderstorms have redeveloped this morning along a low-level confluence zone, with a few stronger updrafts occasionally exhibiting low/mid-level rotation. There will be some potential for modest diurnal heating and additional destabilization before storms spread across the rest of south FL through the morning into early afternoon. Westerly mid-level flow averaging 30 kts with a weakening mid-level jet will support sufficient deep-layer shear for some storm organization and the potential for isolated damaging gusts and hail. A tornado cannot be ruled out this morning through early afternoon with any stronger/semi-discrete storm. Please refer to Mesoscale Convective Discussion 1060 for the latest short-term thinking in this area. ...Eastern CO/NM... Scattered storms are again expected this afternoon and evening long and east of the higher terrain in eastern CO/NM. While deep-layer flow/shear will be relatively modest, guidance suggests some increase in low-level moisture and instability by afternoon. Initial storms could pose a threat for isolated hail and strong to severe gusts. There is some potential for one or more loosely organized clusters to develop by evening and spread eastward with strong to locally severe outflow winds. ...Southern CA into southern/central AZ... A mid/upper-level cyclone will move northeastward into parts of southern CA/AZ later today. Cool temperatures aloft will overspread the region, but relatively widespread cloudiness and precipitation will tend to limit destabilization. If pockets of locally stronger heating/destabilization can develop, then a few strong storms will be possible. However, confidence remains too low to introduce severe probabilities at this time. ...Great Basin... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon from parts of NV into western UT. Buoyancy and shear are expected to remain weak, and organized thunderstorms are not expected, however localized strong outflow gusts will be possible within this regime through early evening. ..Bunting/Broyles.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered large hail and isolated damaging winds are possible later today into this evening across central and east Texas. More isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the mid-Tennessee River Valley into the Carolinas, central and southern High Plains, northern Rockies, and south Florida. ...Central and eastern TX... Thunderstorms that developed earlier over northern/central OK have moved into southern OK/Red River vicinity at 13z, and have thus far remained only loosely organized. Expectations in the short term are for this area of rain/thunderstorms to continue south/southeast into north-central and northeast TX, with perhaps an isolated stronger storm posing a hail/wind threat. Redevelopment/re-intensification is anticipated this afternoon as the residual outflow encounters moderate/strong MLCAPE on the order of 2500-3000 J/kg. Northwesterly deep-layer shear averaging 35-40 kts will be sufficient for organized storms, including supercells, posing a risk for large to very large hail and damaging gusts. A sustained storm interacting with residual/modifying outflow may have some tornado potential in the presence of locally-augmented low-level shear. ...TN to the Carolinas... A quasi-stationary front is forecast to extend from eastern MO southeastward into NC by early afternoon. Despite relatively modest low-level moisture, diurnal heating combined with seasonably cold temperatures aloft associated with a deep upper-level trough will allow for weak to moderate destabilization near and south of the front. Isolated to scattered storm development is expected this afternoon, with somewhat greater coverage expected with eastward extent. Modestly favorable effective shear (generally 25-30 kt) may support occasionally organized storms capable of isolated damaging wind and hail. Any longer-lived clusters could pose a more concentrated wind-damage threat, and latest hi-res guidance suggests this may be most likely across central/eastern NC in association with a weak surface low moving east along the front. ...Eastern ID/Southwest MT/Northwest WY... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move eastward from the Pacific Northwest toward the northern Rockies by this evening. Weak to locally moderate buoyancy and increasing deep-layer shear will support the potential for somewhat organized cells/clusters with an attendant threat of isolated severe gusts and hail. Depending on the extent of diurnal heating/destabilization, a localized corridor of somewhat greater potential may evolve with the broader Marginal Risk area. ...South FL... Thunderstorms have redeveloped this morning along a low-level confluence zone, with a few stronger updrafts occasionally exhibiting low/mid-level rotation. There will be some potential for modest diurnal heating and additional destabilization before storms spread across the rest of south FL through the morning into early afternoon. Westerly mid-level flow averaging 30 kts with a weakening mid-level jet will support sufficient deep-layer shear for some storm organization and the potential for isolated damaging gusts and hail. A tornado cannot be ruled out this morning through early afternoon with any stronger/semi-discrete storm. Please refer to Mesoscale Convective Discussion 1060 for the latest short-term thinking in this area. ...Eastern CO/NM... Scattered storms are again expected this afternoon and evening long and east of the higher terrain in eastern CO/NM. While deep-layer flow/shear will be relatively modest, guidance suggests some increase in low-level moisture and instability by afternoon. Initial storms could pose a threat for isolated hail and strong to severe gusts. There is some potential for one or more loosely organized clusters to develop by evening and spread eastward with strong to locally severe outflow winds. ...Southern CA into southern/central AZ... A mid/upper-level cyclone will move northeastward into parts of southern CA/AZ later today. Cool temperatures aloft will overspread the region, but relatively widespread cloudiness and precipitation will tend to limit destabilization. If pockets of locally stronger heating/destabilization can develop, then a few strong storms will be possible. However, confidence remains too low to introduce severe probabilities at this time. ...Great Basin... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon from parts of NV into western UT. Buoyancy and shear are expected to remain weak, and organized thunderstorms are not expected, however localized strong outflow gusts will be possible within this regime through early evening. ..Bunting/Broyles.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered large hail and isolated damaging winds are possible later today into this evening across central and east Texas. More isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the mid-Tennessee River Valley into the Carolinas, central and southern High Plains, northern Rockies, and south Florida. ...Central and eastern TX... Thunderstorms that developed earlier over northern/central OK have moved into southern OK/Red River vicinity at 13z, and have thus far remained only loosely organized. Expectations in the short term are for this area of rain/thunderstorms to continue south/southeast into north-central and northeast TX, with perhaps an isolated stronger storm posing a hail/wind threat. Redevelopment/re-intensification is anticipated this afternoon as the residual outflow encounters moderate/strong MLCAPE on the order of 2500-3000 J/kg. Northwesterly deep-layer shear averaging 35-40 kts will be sufficient for organized storms, including supercells, posing a risk for large to very large hail and damaging gusts. A sustained storm interacting with residual/modifying outflow may have some tornado potential in the presence of locally-augmented low-level shear. ...TN to the Carolinas... A quasi-stationary front is forecast to extend from eastern MO southeastward into NC by early afternoon. Despite relatively modest low-level moisture, diurnal heating combined with seasonably cold temperatures aloft associated with a deep upper-level trough will allow for weak to moderate destabilization near and south of the front. Isolated to scattered storm development is expected this afternoon, with somewhat greater coverage expected with eastward extent. Modestly favorable effective shear (generally 25-30 kt) may support occasionally organized storms capable of isolated damaging wind and hail. Any longer-lived clusters could pose a more concentrated wind-damage threat, and latest hi-res guidance suggests this may be most likely across central/eastern NC in association with a weak surface low moving east along the front. ...Eastern ID/Southwest MT/Northwest WY... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move eastward from the Pacific Northwest toward the northern Rockies by this evening. Weak to locally moderate buoyancy and increasing deep-layer shear will support the potential for somewhat organized cells/clusters with an attendant threat of isolated severe gusts and hail. Depending on the extent of diurnal heating/destabilization, a localized corridor of somewhat greater potential may evolve with the broader Marginal Risk area. ...South FL... Thunderstorms have redeveloped this morning along a low-level confluence zone, with a few stronger updrafts occasionally exhibiting low/mid-level rotation. There will be some potential for modest diurnal heating and additional destabilization before storms spread across the rest of south FL through the morning into early afternoon. Westerly mid-level flow averaging 30 kts with a weakening mid-level jet will support sufficient deep-layer shear for some storm organization and the potential for isolated damaging gusts and hail. A tornado cannot be ruled out this morning through early afternoon with any stronger/semi-discrete storm. Please refer to Mesoscale Convective Discussion 1060 for the latest short-term thinking in this area. ...Eastern CO/NM... Scattered storms are again expected this afternoon and evening long and east of the higher terrain in eastern CO/NM. While deep-layer flow/shear will be relatively modest, guidance suggests some increase in low-level moisture and instability by afternoon. Initial storms could pose a threat for isolated hail and strong to severe gusts. There is some potential for one or more loosely organized clusters to develop by evening and spread eastward with strong to locally severe outflow winds. ...Southern CA into southern/central AZ... A mid/upper-level cyclone will move northeastward into parts of southern CA/AZ later today. Cool temperatures aloft will overspread the region, but relatively widespread cloudiness and precipitation will tend to limit destabilization. If pockets of locally stronger heating/destabilization can develop, then a few strong storms will be possible. However, confidence remains too low to introduce severe probabilities at this time. ...Great Basin... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon from parts of NV into western UT. Buoyancy and shear are expected to remain weak, and organized thunderstorms are not expected, however localized strong outflow gusts will be possible within this regime through early evening. ..Bunting/Broyles.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered large hail and isolated damaging winds are possible later today into this evening across central and east Texas. More isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the mid-Tennessee River Valley into the Carolinas, central and southern High Plains, northern Rockies, and south Florida. ...Central and eastern TX... Thunderstorms that developed earlier over northern/central OK have moved into southern OK/Red River vicinity at 13z, and have thus far remained only loosely organized. Expectations in the short term are for this area of rain/thunderstorms to continue south/southeast into north-central and northeast TX, with perhaps an isolated stronger storm posing a hail/wind threat. Redevelopment/re-intensification is anticipated this afternoon as the residual outflow encounters moderate/strong MLCAPE on the order of 2500-3000 J/kg. Northwesterly deep-layer shear averaging 35-40 kts will be sufficient for organized storms, including supercells, posing a risk for large to very large hail and damaging gusts. A sustained storm interacting with residual/modifying outflow may have some tornado potential in the presence of locally-augmented low-level shear. ...TN to the Carolinas... A quasi-stationary front is forecast to extend from eastern MO southeastward into NC by early afternoon. Despite relatively modest low-level moisture, diurnal heating combined with seasonably cold temperatures aloft associated with a deep upper-level trough will allow for weak to moderate destabilization near and south of the front. Isolated to scattered storm development is expected this afternoon, with somewhat greater coverage expected with eastward extent. Modestly favorable effective shear (generally 25-30 kt) may support occasionally organized storms capable of isolated damaging wind and hail. Any longer-lived clusters could pose a more concentrated wind-damage threat, and latest hi-res guidance suggests this may be most likely across central/eastern NC in association with a weak surface low moving east along the front. ...Eastern ID/Southwest MT/Northwest WY... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move eastward from the Pacific Northwest toward the northern Rockies by this evening. Weak to locally moderate buoyancy and increasing deep-layer shear will support the potential for somewhat organized cells/clusters with an attendant threat of isolated severe gusts and hail. Depending on the extent of diurnal heating/destabilization, a localized corridor of somewhat greater potential may evolve with the broader Marginal Risk area. ...South FL... Thunderstorms have redeveloped this morning along a low-level confluence zone, with a few stronger updrafts occasionally exhibiting low/mid-level rotation. There will be some potential for modest diurnal heating and additional destabilization before storms spread across the rest of south FL through the morning into early afternoon. Westerly mid-level flow averaging 30 kts with a weakening mid-level jet will support sufficient deep-layer shear for some storm organization and the potential for isolated damaging gusts and hail. A tornado cannot be ruled out this morning through early afternoon with any stronger/semi-discrete storm. Please refer to Mesoscale Convective Discussion 1060 for the latest short-term thinking in this area. ...Eastern CO/NM... Scattered storms are again expected this afternoon and evening long and east of the higher terrain in eastern CO/NM. While deep-layer flow/shear will be relatively modest, guidance suggests some increase in low-level moisture and instability by afternoon. Initial storms could pose a threat for isolated hail and strong to severe gusts. There is some potential for one or more loosely organized clusters to develop by evening and spread eastward with strong to locally severe outflow winds. ...Southern CA into southern/central AZ... A mid/upper-level cyclone will move northeastward into parts of southern CA/AZ later today. Cool temperatures aloft will overspread the region, but relatively widespread cloudiness and precipitation will tend to limit destabilization. If pockets of locally stronger heating/destabilization can develop, then a few strong storms will be possible. However, confidence remains too low to introduce severe probabilities at this time. ...Great Basin... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon from parts of NV into western UT. Buoyancy and shear are expected to remain weak, and organized thunderstorms are not expected, however localized strong outflow gusts will be possible within this regime through early evening. ..Bunting/Broyles.. 06/01/2025 Read more