Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered large hail and isolated damaging winds are possible later today into this evening across central and east Texas. More isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the mid-Tennessee River Valley into the Carolinas, central and southern High Plains, northern Rockies, and south Florida. ...Central and eastern TX... Thunderstorms that developed earlier over northern/central OK have moved into southern OK/Red River vicinity at 13z, and have thus far remained only loosely organized. Expectations in the short term are for this area of rain/thunderstorms to continue south/southeast into north-central and northeast TX, with perhaps an isolated stronger storm posing a hail/wind threat. Redevelopment/re-intensification is anticipated this afternoon as the residual outflow encounters moderate/strong MLCAPE on the order of 2500-3000 J/kg. Northwesterly deep-layer shear averaging 35-40 kts will be sufficient for organized storms, including supercells, posing a risk for large to very large hail and damaging gusts. A sustained storm interacting with residual/modifying outflow may have some tornado potential in the presence of locally-augmented low-level shear. ...TN to the Carolinas... A quasi-stationary front is forecast to extend from eastern MO southeastward into NC by early afternoon. Despite relatively modest low-level moisture, diurnal heating combined with seasonably cold temperatures aloft associated with a deep upper-level trough will allow for weak to moderate destabilization near and south of the front. Isolated to scattered storm development is expected this afternoon, with somewhat greater coverage expected with eastward extent. Modestly favorable effective shear (generally 25-30 kt) may support occasionally organized storms capable of isolated damaging wind and hail. Any longer-lived clusters could pose a more concentrated wind-damage threat, and latest hi-res guidance suggests this may be most likely across central/eastern NC in association with a weak surface low moving east along the front. ...Eastern ID/Southwest MT/Northwest WY... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move eastward from the Pacific Northwest toward the northern Rockies by this evening. Weak to locally moderate buoyancy and increasing deep-layer shear will support the potential for somewhat organized cells/clusters with an attendant threat of isolated severe gusts and hail. Depending on the extent of diurnal heating/destabilization, a localized corridor of somewhat greater potential may evolve with the broader Marginal Risk area. ...South FL... Thunderstorms have redeveloped this morning along a low-level confluence zone, with a few stronger updrafts occasionally exhibiting low/mid-level rotation. There will be some potential for modest diurnal heating and additional destabilization before storms spread across the rest of south FL through the morning into early afternoon. Westerly mid-level flow averaging 30 kts with a weakening mid-level jet will support sufficient deep-layer shear for some storm organization and the potential for isolated damaging gusts and hail. A tornado cannot be ruled out this morning through early afternoon with any stronger/semi-discrete storm. Please refer to Mesoscale Convective Discussion 1060 for the latest short-term thinking in this area. ...Eastern CO/NM... Scattered storms are again expected this afternoon and evening long and east of the higher terrain in eastern CO/NM. While deep-layer flow/shear will be relatively modest, guidance suggests some increase in low-level moisture and instability by afternoon. Initial storms could pose a threat for isolated hail and strong to severe gusts. There is some potential for one or more loosely organized clusters to develop by evening and spread eastward with strong to locally severe outflow winds. ...Southern CA into southern/central AZ... A mid/upper-level cyclone will move northeastward into parts of southern CA/AZ later today. Cool temperatures aloft will overspread the region, but relatively widespread cloudiness and precipitation will tend to limit destabilization. If pockets of locally stronger heating/destabilization can develop, then a few strong storms will be possible. However, confidence remains too low to introduce severe probabilities at this time. ...Great Basin... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon from parts of NV into western UT. Buoyancy and shear are expected to remain weak, and organized thunderstorms are not expected, however localized strong outflow gusts will be possible within this regime through early evening. ..Bunting/Broyles.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered large hail and isolated damaging winds are possible later today into this evening across central and east Texas. More isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the mid-Tennessee River Valley into the Carolinas, central and southern High Plains, northern Rockies, and south Florida. ...Central and eastern TX... Thunderstorms that developed earlier over northern/central OK have moved into southern OK/Red River vicinity at 13z, and have thus far remained only loosely organized. Expectations in the short term are for this area of rain/thunderstorms to continue south/southeast into north-central and northeast TX, with perhaps an isolated stronger storm posing a hail/wind threat. Redevelopment/re-intensification is anticipated this afternoon as the residual outflow encounters moderate/strong MLCAPE on the order of 2500-3000 J/kg. Northwesterly deep-layer shear averaging 35-40 kts will be sufficient for organized storms, including supercells, posing a risk for large to very large hail and damaging gusts. A sustained storm interacting with residual/modifying outflow may have some tornado potential in the presence of locally-augmented low-level shear. ...TN to the Carolinas... A quasi-stationary front is forecast to extend from eastern MO southeastward into NC by early afternoon. Despite relatively modest low-level moisture, diurnal heating combined with seasonably cold temperatures aloft associated with a deep upper-level trough will allow for weak to moderate destabilization near and south of the front. Isolated to scattered storm development is expected this afternoon, with somewhat greater coverage expected with eastward extent. Modestly favorable effective shear (generally 25-30 kt) may support occasionally organized storms capable of isolated damaging wind and hail. Any longer-lived clusters could pose a more concentrated wind-damage threat, and latest hi-res guidance suggests this may be most likely across central/eastern NC in association with a weak surface low moving east along the front. ...Eastern ID/Southwest MT/Northwest WY... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move eastward from the Pacific Northwest toward the northern Rockies by this evening. Weak to locally moderate buoyancy and increasing deep-layer shear will support the potential for somewhat organized cells/clusters with an attendant threat of isolated severe gusts and hail. Depending on the extent of diurnal heating/destabilization, a localized corridor of somewhat greater potential may evolve with the broader Marginal Risk area. ...South FL... Thunderstorms have redeveloped this morning along a low-level confluence zone, with a few stronger updrafts occasionally exhibiting low/mid-level rotation. There will be some potential for modest diurnal heating and additional destabilization before storms spread across the rest of south FL through the morning into early afternoon. Westerly mid-level flow averaging 30 kts with a weakening mid-level jet will support sufficient deep-layer shear for some storm organization and the potential for isolated damaging gusts and hail. A tornado cannot be ruled out this morning through early afternoon with any stronger/semi-discrete storm. Please refer to Mesoscale Convective Discussion 1060 for the latest short-term thinking in this area. ...Eastern CO/NM... Scattered storms are again expected this afternoon and evening long and east of the higher terrain in eastern CO/NM. While deep-layer flow/shear will be relatively modest, guidance suggests some increase in low-level moisture and instability by afternoon. Initial storms could pose a threat for isolated hail and strong to severe gusts. There is some potential for one or more loosely organized clusters to develop by evening and spread eastward with strong to locally severe outflow winds. ...Southern CA into southern/central AZ... A mid/upper-level cyclone will move northeastward into parts of southern CA/AZ later today. Cool temperatures aloft will overspread the region, but relatively widespread cloudiness and precipitation will tend to limit destabilization. If pockets of locally stronger heating/destabilization can develop, then a few strong storms will be possible. However, confidence remains too low to introduce severe probabilities at this time. ...Great Basin... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon from parts of NV into western UT. Buoyancy and shear are expected to remain weak, and organized thunderstorms are not expected, however localized strong outflow gusts will be possible within this regime through early evening. ..Bunting/Broyles.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered large hail and isolated damaging winds are possible later today into this evening across central and east Texas. More isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the mid-Tennessee River Valley into the Carolinas, central and southern High Plains, northern Rockies, and south Florida. ...Central and eastern TX... Thunderstorms that developed earlier over northern/central OK have moved into southern OK/Red River vicinity at 13z, and have thus far remained only loosely organized. Expectations in the short term are for this area of rain/thunderstorms to continue south/southeast into north-central and northeast TX, with perhaps an isolated stronger storm posing a hail/wind threat. Redevelopment/re-intensification is anticipated this afternoon as the residual outflow encounters moderate/strong MLCAPE on the order of 2500-3000 J/kg. Northwesterly deep-layer shear averaging 35-40 kts will be sufficient for organized storms, including supercells, posing a risk for large to very large hail and damaging gusts. A sustained storm interacting with residual/modifying outflow may have some tornado potential in the presence of locally-augmented low-level shear. ...TN to the Carolinas... A quasi-stationary front is forecast to extend from eastern MO southeastward into NC by early afternoon. Despite relatively modest low-level moisture, diurnal heating combined with seasonably cold temperatures aloft associated with a deep upper-level trough will allow for weak to moderate destabilization near and south of the front. Isolated to scattered storm development is expected this afternoon, with somewhat greater coverage expected with eastward extent. Modestly favorable effective shear (generally 25-30 kt) may support occasionally organized storms capable of isolated damaging wind and hail. Any longer-lived clusters could pose a more concentrated wind-damage threat, and latest hi-res guidance suggests this may be most likely across central/eastern NC in association with a weak surface low moving east along the front. ...Eastern ID/Southwest MT/Northwest WY... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move eastward from the Pacific Northwest toward the northern Rockies by this evening. Weak to locally moderate buoyancy and increasing deep-layer shear will support the potential for somewhat organized cells/clusters with an attendant threat of isolated severe gusts and hail. Depending on the extent of diurnal heating/destabilization, a localized corridor of somewhat greater potential may evolve with the broader Marginal Risk area. ...South FL... Thunderstorms have redeveloped this morning along a low-level confluence zone, with a few stronger updrafts occasionally exhibiting low/mid-level rotation. There will be some potential for modest diurnal heating and additional destabilization before storms spread across the rest of south FL through the morning into early afternoon. Westerly mid-level flow averaging 30 kts with a weakening mid-level jet will support sufficient deep-layer shear for some storm organization and the potential for isolated damaging gusts and hail. A tornado cannot be ruled out this morning through early afternoon with any stronger/semi-discrete storm. Please refer to Mesoscale Convective Discussion 1060 for the latest short-term thinking in this area. ...Eastern CO/NM... Scattered storms are again expected this afternoon and evening long and east of the higher terrain in eastern CO/NM. While deep-layer flow/shear will be relatively modest, guidance suggests some increase in low-level moisture and instability by afternoon. Initial storms could pose a threat for isolated hail and strong to severe gusts. There is some potential for one or more loosely organized clusters to develop by evening and spread eastward with strong to locally severe outflow winds. ...Southern CA into southern/central AZ... A mid/upper-level cyclone will move northeastward into parts of southern CA/AZ later today. Cool temperatures aloft will overspread the region, but relatively widespread cloudiness and precipitation will tend to limit destabilization. If pockets of locally stronger heating/destabilization can develop, then a few strong storms will be possible. However, confidence remains too low to introduce severe probabilities at this time. ...Great Basin... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon from parts of NV into western UT. Buoyancy and shear are expected to remain weak, and organized thunderstorms are not expected, however localized strong outflow gusts will be possible within this regime through early evening. ..Bunting/Broyles.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered large hail and isolated damaging winds are possible later today into this evening across central and east Texas. More isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the mid-Tennessee River Valley into the Carolinas, central and southern High Plains, northern Rockies, and south Florida. ...Central and eastern TX... Thunderstorms that developed earlier over northern/central OK have moved into southern OK/Red River vicinity at 13z, and have thus far remained only loosely organized. Expectations in the short term are for this area of rain/thunderstorms to continue south/southeast into north-central and northeast TX, with perhaps an isolated stronger storm posing a hail/wind threat. Redevelopment/re-intensification is anticipated this afternoon as the residual outflow encounters moderate/strong MLCAPE on the order of 2500-3000 J/kg. Northwesterly deep-layer shear averaging 35-40 kts will be sufficient for organized storms, including supercells, posing a risk for large to very large hail and damaging gusts. A sustained storm interacting with residual/modifying outflow may have some tornado potential in the presence of locally-augmented low-level shear. ...TN to the Carolinas... A quasi-stationary front is forecast to extend from eastern MO southeastward into NC by early afternoon. Despite relatively modest low-level moisture, diurnal heating combined with seasonably cold temperatures aloft associated with a deep upper-level trough will allow for weak to moderate destabilization near and south of the front. Isolated to scattered storm development is expected this afternoon, with somewhat greater coverage expected with eastward extent. Modestly favorable effective shear (generally 25-30 kt) may support occasionally organized storms capable of isolated damaging wind and hail. Any longer-lived clusters could pose a more concentrated wind-damage threat, and latest hi-res guidance suggests this may be most likely across central/eastern NC in association with a weak surface low moving east along the front. ...Eastern ID/Southwest MT/Northwest WY... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move eastward from the Pacific Northwest toward the northern Rockies by this evening. Weak to locally moderate buoyancy and increasing deep-layer shear will support the potential for somewhat organized cells/clusters with an attendant threat of isolated severe gusts and hail. Depending on the extent of diurnal heating/destabilization, a localized corridor of somewhat greater potential may evolve with the broader Marginal Risk area. ...South FL... Thunderstorms have redeveloped this morning along a low-level confluence zone, with a few stronger updrafts occasionally exhibiting low/mid-level rotation. There will be some potential for modest diurnal heating and additional destabilization before storms spread across the rest of south FL through the morning into early afternoon. Westerly mid-level flow averaging 30 kts with a weakening mid-level jet will support sufficient deep-layer shear for some storm organization and the potential for isolated damaging gusts and hail. A tornado cannot be ruled out this morning through early afternoon with any stronger/semi-discrete storm. Please refer to Mesoscale Convective Discussion 1060 for the latest short-term thinking in this area. ...Eastern CO/NM... Scattered storms are again expected this afternoon and evening long and east of the higher terrain in eastern CO/NM. While deep-layer flow/shear will be relatively modest, guidance suggests some increase in low-level moisture and instability by afternoon. Initial storms could pose a threat for isolated hail and strong to severe gusts. There is some potential for one or more loosely organized clusters to develop by evening and spread eastward with strong to locally severe outflow winds. ...Southern CA into southern/central AZ... A mid/upper-level cyclone will move northeastward into parts of southern CA/AZ later today. Cool temperatures aloft will overspread the region, but relatively widespread cloudiness and precipitation will tend to limit destabilization. If pockets of locally stronger heating/destabilization can develop, then a few strong storms will be possible. However, confidence remains too low to introduce severe probabilities at this time. ...Great Basin... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon from parts of NV into western UT. Buoyancy and shear are expected to remain weak, and organized thunderstorms are not expected, however localized strong outflow gusts will be possible within this regime through early evening. ..Bunting/Broyles.. 06/01/2025 Read more

MD 1059 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 351... FOR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NORTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1059 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0622 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Areas affected...Southern Oklahoma...North Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 351... Valid 011122Z - 011315Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 351 continues. SUMMARY...A few strong thunderstorms, with isolated severe gusts or hail, will be possible over the next few hours. However, any threat should remain localized, and weather watch issuance is not expected to the south of the current watch. DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms is ongoing in south-central Oklahoma, which is near a 500 mb jet analyzed by the RAP. This cluster will continue to move southward across the remainder of Oklahoma into parts of north Texas over the next few hours. Any severe threat associated with the cluster will likely remain localized and brief, primarily due to weak instability. For this reason, weather watch issuance is not expected to the south of the ongoing watch. As the outflow boundary, associated with the cluster, stalls over north Texas later this morning, it will likely become a focus for new convective development. Through that time, the situation will continue to be monitored for changes in severe weather potential. ..Broyles/Bunting.. 06/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33829886 34409904 34869865 34989811 34849746 34579640 34239605 33879604 33419633 33319697 33499794 33829886 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0351 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 351 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW AVK TO 20 S END TO 20 NW MLC. ..BROYLES..06/01/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 351 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-011-013-015-017-019-027-029-031-033-039-043-049-051-063- 067-069-073-075-085-087-095-099-109-123-125-133-137-141-149- 011140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BLAINE BRYAN CADDO CANADIAN CARTER CLEVELAND COAL COMANCHE COTTON CUSTER DEWEY GARVIN GRADY HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON KINGFISHER KIOWA LOVE MCCLAIN MARSHALL MURRAY OKLAHOMA PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE STEPHENS TILLMAN WASHITA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0351 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 351 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW AVK TO 20 S END TO 20 NW MLC. ..BROYLES..06/01/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 351 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-011-013-015-017-019-027-029-031-033-039-043-049-051-063- 067-069-073-075-085-087-095-099-109-123-125-133-137-141-149- 011140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BLAINE BRYAN CADDO CANADIAN CARTER CLEVELAND COAL COMANCHE COTTON CUSTER DEWEY GARVIN GRADY HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON KINGFISHER KIOWA LOVE MCCLAIN MARSHALL MURRAY OKLAHOMA PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE STEPHENS TILLMAN WASHITA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0351 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 351 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW AVK TO 20 S END TO 20 NW MLC. ..BROYLES..06/01/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 351 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-011-013-015-017-019-027-029-031-033-039-043-049-051-063- 067-069-073-075-085-087-095-099-109-123-125-133-137-141-149- 011140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BLAINE BRYAN CADDO CANADIAN CARTER CLEVELAND COAL COMANCHE COTTON CUSTER DEWEY GARVIN GRADY HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON KINGFISHER KIOWA LOVE MCCLAIN MARSHALL MURRAY OKLAHOMA PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE STEPHENS TILLMAN WASHITA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0351 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 351 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW AVK TO 20 S END TO 20 NW MLC. ..BROYLES..06/01/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 351 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-011-013-015-017-019-027-029-031-033-039-043-049-051-063- 067-069-073-075-085-087-095-099-109-123-125-133-137-141-149- 011140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BLAINE BRYAN CADDO CANADIAN CARTER CLEVELAND COAL COMANCHE COTTON CUSTER DEWEY GARVIN GRADY HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON KINGFISHER KIOWA LOVE MCCLAIN MARSHALL MURRAY OKLAHOMA PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE STEPHENS TILLMAN WASHITA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0351 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 351 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW AVK TO 20 S END TO 20 NW MLC. ..BROYLES..06/01/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 351 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-011-013-015-017-019-027-029-031-033-039-043-049-051-063- 067-069-073-075-085-087-095-099-109-123-125-133-137-141-149- 011140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BLAINE BRYAN CADDO CANADIAN CARTER CLEVELAND COAL COMANCHE COTTON CUSTER DEWEY GARVIN GRADY HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON KINGFISHER KIOWA LOVE MCCLAIN MARSHALL MURRAY OKLAHOMA PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE STEPHENS TILLMAN WASHITA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1058 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 351... FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1058 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Areas affected...Western and Central Oklahoma Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 351... Valid 010839Z - 011045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 351 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat is expected to increase over parts of western and central Oklahoma over the next few hours. Damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail will be the primary threats. DISCUSSION...The latest RAP continues to show a pocket of moderate instability over western Oklahoma, where MUCAPE is estimated in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Over the last couple of hours, storms have developed along the eastern edge of this pocket of instability, then intensified and moved southeastward into less unstable air. This trend is expected to continue, with additional severe storms most likely to develop in northwestern and west-central Oklahoma over the next 2 to 3 hours. A more persistent line or cluster of organized storms is expected to form, moving south-southeastward along or near the I-35 corridor. Forecast soundings suggest that effective shear has increased over the last couple of hours, as a mid-level jet has moved southeastward into Oklahoma. This, combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km, should be favorable for isolated large hail. The potential for damaging wind gusts may increase, especially if an organized cluster or line segment can develop. ..Broyles/Bunting.. 06/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... LAT...LON 34049644 34049740 34219837 34399920 34909954 35949954 36369892 36369733 36009601 34529594 34049644 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 351 SEVERE TSTM OK 010625Z - 011400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 351 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 125 AM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Southern Oklahoma * Effective this Sunday morning from 125 AM until 900 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue to move southeast across the watch area early this morning with a risk mainly for damaging thunderstorm wind gusts and large hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north of Oklahoma City OK to 25 miles southwest of Ardmore OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 31035. ...Bunting Read more

WW 0351 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 351 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..06/01/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 351 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-011-013-015-017-019-027-029-031-033-037-039-043-049-051- 063-067-069-073-075-081-083-085-087-095-099-107-109-119-123-125- 133-137-141-149-011040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BLAINE BRYAN CADDO CANADIAN CARTER CLEVELAND COAL COMANCHE COTTON CREEK CUSTER DEWEY GARVIN GRADY HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON KINGFISHER KIOWA LINCOLN LOGAN LOVE MCCLAIN MARSHALL MURRAY OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA PAYNE PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE STEPHENS TILLMAN WASHITA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Enhanced mid-level southwesterlies initially present over the central Great Lakes early Wednesday should become confined to ON/QC as a lower-amplitude shortwave trough dampens. Trailing to the south of this, low-probability severe is apparent on Wednesday afternoon in the eastern Midwest, and on Thursday afternoon over the Northeast along/ahead of a decaying cold front. Another southern-stream shortwave impulse is progged to move east from the Southwest mid-week. But initial surface ridging downstream over the southern High Plains suggests the potential severe area will be limited. Greater potential may await D6-7/Friday-Saturday, as the ridging breaks down and zonal mid-level flow returns in the wake of the aforementioned impulse. This will yield strengthening and expansion of the EML east of the CO Plateau. ML guidance from both the latest 00Z SPC/NSSL GEFS and yesterday's 00Z NCAR ECENS highlight 15 percent probabilities on D6-7/Friday-Saturday across the TX Panhandle into western KS/OK. Potential MCVs embedded within this regime appear too minor at this time frame to reliably delineate an area, but bear watching for shorter-term outlooks. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Enhanced mid-level southwesterlies initially present over the central Great Lakes early Wednesday should become confined to ON/QC as a lower-amplitude shortwave trough dampens. Trailing to the south of this, low-probability severe is apparent on Wednesday afternoon in the eastern Midwest, and on Thursday afternoon over the Northeast along/ahead of a decaying cold front. Another southern-stream shortwave impulse is progged to move east from the Southwest mid-week. But initial surface ridging downstream over the southern High Plains suggests the potential severe area will be limited. Greater potential may await D6-7/Friday-Saturday, as the ridging breaks down and zonal mid-level flow returns in the wake of the aforementioned impulse. This will yield strengthening and expansion of the EML east of the CO Plateau. ML guidance from both the latest 00Z SPC/NSSL GEFS and yesterday's 00Z NCAR ECENS highlight 15 percent probabilities on D6-7/Friday-Saturday across the TX Panhandle into western KS/OK. Potential MCVs embedded within this regime appear too minor at this time frame to reliably delineate an area, but bear watching for shorter-term outlooks. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Enhanced mid-level southwesterlies initially present over the central Great Lakes early Wednesday should become confined to ON/QC as a lower-amplitude shortwave trough dampens. Trailing to the south of this, low-probability severe is apparent on Wednesday afternoon in the eastern Midwest, and on Thursday afternoon over the Northeast along/ahead of a decaying cold front. Another southern-stream shortwave impulse is progged to move east from the Southwest mid-week. But initial surface ridging downstream over the southern High Plains suggests the potential severe area will be limited. Greater potential may await D6-7/Friday-Saturday, as the ridging breaks down and zonal mid-level flow returns in the wake of the aforementioned impulse. This will yield strengthening and expansion of the EML east of the CO Plateau. ML guidance from both the latest 00Z SPC/NSSL GEFS and yesterday's 00Z NCAR ECENS highlight 15 percent probabilities on D6-7/Friday-Saturday across the TX Panhandle into western KS/OK. Potential MCVs embedded within this regime appear too minor at this time frame to reliably delineate an area, but bear watching for shorter-term outlooks. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Enhanced mid-level southwesterlies initially present over the central Great Lakes early Wednesday should become confined to ON/QC as a lower-amplitude shortwave trough dampens. Trailing to the south of this, low-probability severe is apparent on Wednesday afternoon in the eastern Midwest, and on Thursday afternoon over the Northeast along/ahead of a decaying cold front. Another southern-stream shortwave impulse is progged to move east from the Southwest mid-week. But initial surface ridging downstream over the southern High Plains suggests the potential severe area will be limited. Greater potential may await D6-7/Friday-Saturday, as the ridging breaks down and zonal mid-level flow returns in the wake of the aforementioned impulse. This will yield strengthening and expansion of the EML east of the CO Plateau. ML guidance from both the latest 00Z SPC/NSSL GEFS and yesterday's 00Z NCAR ECENS highlight 15 percent probabilities on D6-7/Friday-Saturday across the TX Panhandle into western KS/OK. Potential MCVs embedded within this regime appear too minor at this time frame to reliably delineate an area, but bear watching for shorter-term outlooks. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Enhanced mid-level southwesterlies initially present over the central Great Lakes early Wednesday should become confined to ON/QC as a lower-amplitude shortwave trough dampens. Trailing to the south of this, low-probability severe is apparent on Wednesday afternoon in the eastern Midwest, and on Thursday afternoon over the Northeast along/ahead of a decaying cold front. Another southern-stream shortwave impulse is progged to move east from the Southwest mid-week. But initial surface ridging downstream over the southern High Plains suggests the potential severe area will be limited. Greater potential may await D6-7/Friday-Saturday, as the ridging breaks down and zonal mid-level flow returns in the wake of the aforementioned impulse. This will yield strengthening and expansion of the EML east of the CO Plateau. ML guidance from both the latest 00Z SPC/NSSL GEFS and yesterday's 00Z NCAR ECENS highlight 15 percent probabilities on D6-7/Friday-Saturday across the TX Panhandle into western KS/OK. Potential MCVs embedded within this regime appear too minor at this time frame to reliably delineate an area, but bear watching for shorter-term outlooks. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Enhanced mid-level southwesterlies initially present over the central Great Lakes early Wednesday should become confined to ON/QC as a lower-amplitude shortwave trough dampens. Trailing to the south of this, low-probability severe is apparent on Wednesday afternoon in the eastern Midwest, and on Thursday afternoon over the Northeast along/ahead of a decaying cold front. Another southern-stream shortwave impulse is progged to move east from the Southwest mid-week. But initial surface ridging downstream over the southern High Plains suggests the potential severe area will be limited. Greater potential may await D6-7/Friday-Saturday, as the ridging breaks down and zonal mid-level flow returns in the wake of the aforementioned impulse. This will yield strengthening and expansion of the EML east of the CO Plateau. ML guidance from both the latest 00Z SPC/NSSL GEFS and yesterday's 00Z NCAR ECENS highlight 15 percent probabilities on D6-7/Friday-Saturday across the TX Panhandle into western KS/OK. Potential MCVs embedded within this regime appear too minor at this time frame to reliably delineate an area, but bear watching for shorter-term outlooks. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Enhanced mid-level southwesterlies initially present over the central Great Lakes early Wednesday should become confined to ON/QC as a lower-amplitude shortwave trough dampens. Trailing to the south of this, low-probability severe is apparent on Wednesday afternoon in the eastern Midwest, and on Thursday afternoon over the Northeast along/ahead of a decaying cold front. Another southern-stream shortwave impulse is progged to move east from the Southwest mid-week. But initial surface ridging downstream over the southern High Plains suggests the potential severe area will be limited. Greater potential may await D6-7/Friday-Saturday, as the ridging breaks down and zonal mid-level flow returns in the wake of the aforementioned impulse. This will yield strengthening and expansion of the EML east of the CO Plateau. ML guidance from both the latest 00Z SPC/NSSL GEFS and yesterday's 00Z NCAR ECENS highlight 15 percent probabilities on D6-7/Friday-Saturday across the TX Panhandle into western KS/OK. Potential MCVs embedded within this regime appear too minor at this time frame to reliably delineate an area, but bear watching for shorter-term outlooks. Read more