Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The main portion of cyclonic flow aloft will stay within the northern tier of the CONUS. The upper cyclone in the Southwest will continue east into the southern High Plains. Off the southern California coast, another upper cyclone will slowly drift southeastward. A surface front will push into the central/southern Great Basin. Fire weather concerns for most areas should remain low. Thunderstorms are probable in the Southwest, but PW values will be high enough to mitigate lightning ignition concerns. Dry northwesterly winds are possible in parts of the northern Great Basin. Locally elevated conditions are possible, but fuels are only marginally receptive currently and winds will also be marginal. With a surface low moving into northern California, dry northerly winds could reach 15-20 mph during the morning in parts of the Sacramento Valley. Fuels are only starting to cure and the strongest winds will be offset from the lowest RH. Locally elevated conditions are possible, however. ..Wendt.. 06/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The main portion of cyclonic flow aloft will stay within the northern tier of the CONUS. The upper cyclone in the Southwest will continue east into the southern High Plains. Off the southern California coast, another upper cyclone will slowly drift southeastward. A surface front will push into the central/southern Great Basin. Fire weather concerns for most areas should remain low. Thunderstorms are probable in the Southwest, but PW values will be high enough to mitigate lightning ignition concerns. Dry northwesterly winds are possible in parts of the northern Great Basin. Locally elevated conditions are possible, but fuels are only marginally receptive currently and winds will also be marginal. With a surface low moving into northern California, dry northerly winds could reach 15-20 mph during the morning in parts of the Sacramento Valley. Fuels are only starting to cure and the strongest winds will be offset from the lowest RH. Locally elevated conditions are possible, however. ..Wendt.. 06/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The main portion of cyclonic flow aloft will stay within the northern tier of the CONUS. The upper cyclone in the Southwest will continue east into the southern High Plains. Off the southern California coast, another upper cyclone will slowly drift southeastward. A surface front will push into the central/southern Great Basin. Fire weather concerns for most areas should remain low. Thunderstorms are probable in the Southwest, but PW values will be high enough to mitigate lightning ignition concerns. Dry northwesterly winds are possible in parts of the northern Great Basin. Locally elevated conditions are possible, but fuels are only marginally receptive currently and winds will also be marginal. With a surface low moving into northern California, dry northerly winds could reach 15-20 mph during the morning in parts of the Sacramento Valley. Fuels are only starting to cure and the strongest winds will be offset from the lowest RH. Locally elevated conditions are possible, however. ..Wendt.. 06/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The main portion of cyclonic flow aloft will stay within the northern tier of the CONUS. The upper cyclone in the Southwest will continue east into the southern High Plains. Off the southern California coast, another upper cyclone will slowly drift southeastward. A surface front will push into the central/southern Great Basin. Fire weather concerns for most areas should remain low. Thunderstorms are probable in the Southwest, but PW values will be high enough to mitigate lightning ignition concerns. Dry northwesterly winds are possible in parts of the northern Great Basin. Locally elevated conditions are possible, but fuels are only marginally receptive currently and winds will also be marginal. With a surface low moving into northern California, dry northerly winds could reach 15-20 mph during the morning in parts of the Sacramento Valley. Fuels are only starting to cure and the strongest winds will be offset from the lowest RH. Locally elevated conditions are possible, however. ..Wendt.. 06/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The main portion of cyclonic flow aloft will stay within the northern tier of the CONUS. The upper cyclone in the Southwest will continue east into the southern High Plains. Off the southern California coast, another upper cyclone will slowly drift southeastward. A surface front will push into the central/southern Great Basin. Fire weather concerns for most areas should remain low. Thunderstorms are probable in the Southwest, but PW values will be high enough to mitigate lightning ignition concerns. Dry northwesterly winds are possible in parts of the northern Great Basin. Locally elevated conditions are possible, but fuels are only marginally receptive currently and winds will also be marginal. With a surface low moving into northern California, dry northerly winds could reach 15-20 mph during the morning in parts of the Sacramento Valley. Fuels are only starting to cure and the strongest winds will be offset from the lowest RH. Locally elevated conditions are possible, however. ..Wendt.. 06/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The main portion of cyclonic flow aloft will stay within the northern tier of the CONUS. The upper cyclone in the Southwest will continue east into the southern High Plains. Off the southern California coast, another upper cyclone will slowly drift southeastward. A surface front will push into the central/southern Great Basin. Fire weather concerns for most areas should remain low. Thunderstorms are probable in the Southwest, but PW values will be high enough to mitigate lightning ignition concerns. Dry northwesterly winds are possible in parts of the northern Great Basin. Locally elevated conditions are possible, but fuels are only marginally receptive currently and winds will also be marginal. With a surface low moving into northern California, dry northerly winds could reach 15-20 mph during the morning in parts of the Sacramento Valley. Fuels are only starting to cure and the strongest winds will be offset from the lowest RH. Locally elevated conditions are possible, however. ..Wendt.. 06/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue to move through the Northwest with the southern extension of the trough eventually cutting off west of the northern California coast. Near Baja, the upper cyclone will begin to lift into the Southwest ahead of the Northwest/Great Basin trough. A front will stall in the northern Great Basin with a modest surface low deepening along the boundary. ...Nevada... Elevated to locally critical fire weather appears possible in northwest Nevada in the lee of the Sierra. Downslope winds of 15-25 mph will coincide with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. Duration of the 20+ mph winds (ensemble guidance shows this quite well) is the main limiting factor for adding a critical area. Winds in southern Nevada will also increase during the afternoon. Low-levels will be dry, but moisture/cloud influx driven by the approaching cyclone will generally limit the duration of fire weather concerns. Still, locally elevated conditions are possible, especially along the northern fringe of clouds/moisture. Scattered convection with at least some embedded thunderstorms are also possible across much of Nevada. PW values will generally be too high with southern extent and coverage/fuel receptiveness is questionable farther north. Dry lightning risk continues to be too low for highlights. ..Wendt.. 06/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue to move through the Northwest with the southern extension of the trough eventually cutting off west of the northern California coast. Near Baja, the upper cyclone will begin to lift into the Southwest ahead of the Northwest/Great Basin trough. A front will stall in the northern Great Basin with a modest surface low deepening along the boundary. ...Nevada... Elevated to locally critical fire weather appears possible in northwest Nevada in the lee of the Sierra. Downslope winds of 15-25 mph will coincide with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. Duration of the 20+ mph winds (ensemble guidance shows this quite well) is the main limiting factor for adding a critical area. Winds in southern Nevada will also increase during the afternoon. Low-levels will be dry, but moisture/cloud influx driven by the approaching cyclone will generally limit the duration of fire weather concerns. Still, locally elevated conditions are possible, especially along the northern fringe of clouds/moisture. Scattered convection with at least some embedded thunderstorms are also possible across much of Nevada. PW values will generally be too high with southern extent and coverage/fuel receptiveness is questionable farther north. Dry lightning risk continues to be too low for highlights. ..Wendt.. 06/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue to move through the Northwest with the southern extension of the trough eventually cutting off west of the northern California coast. Near Baja, the upper cyclone will begin to lift into the Southwest ahead of the Northwest/Great Basin trough. A front will stall in the northern Great Basin with a modest surface low deepening along the boundary. ...Nevada... Elevated to locally critical fire weather appears possible in northwest Nevada in the lee of the Sierra. Downslope winds of 15-25 mph will coincide with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. Duration of the 20+ mph winds (ensemble guidance shows this quite well) is the main limiting factor for adding a critical area. Winds in southern Nevada will also increase during the afternoon. Low-levels will be dry, but moisture/cloud influx driven by the approaching cyclone will generally limit the duration of fire weather concerns. Still, locally elevated conditions are possible, especially along the northern fringe of clouds/moisture. Scattered convection with at least some embedded thunderstorms are also possible across much of Nevada. PW values will generally be too high with southern extent and coverage/fuel receptiveness is questionable farther north. Dry lightning risk continues to be too low for highlights. ..Wendt.. 06/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue to move through the Northwest with the southern extension of the trough eventually cutting off west of the northern California coast. Near Baja, the upper cyclone will begin to lift into the Southwest ahead of the Northwest/Great Basin trough. A front will stall in the northern Great Basin with a modest surface low deepening along the boundary. ...Nevada... Elevated to locally critical fire weather appears possible in northwest Nevada in the lee of the Sierra. Downslope winds of 15-25 mph will coincide with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. Duration of the 20+ mph winds (ensemble guidance shows this quite well) is the main limiting factor for adding a critical area. Winds in southern Nevada will also increase during the afternoon. Low-levels will be dry, but moisture/cloud influx driven by the approaching cyclone will generally limit the duration of fire weather concerns. Still, locally elevated conditions are possible, especially along the northern fringe of clouds/moisture. Scattered convection with at least some embedded thunderstorms are also possible across much of Nevada. PW values will generally be too high with southern extent and coverage/fuel receptiveness is questionable farther north. Dry lightning risk continues to be too low for highlights. ..Wendt.. 06/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue to move through the Northwest with the southern extension of the trough eventually cutting off west of the northern California coast. Near Baja, the upper cyclone will begin to lift into the Southwest ahead of the Northwest/Great Basin trough. A front will stall in the northern Great Basin with a modest surface low deepening along the boundary. ...Nevada... Elevated to locally critical fire weather appears possible in northwest Nevada in the lee of the Sierra. Downslope winds of 15-25 mph will coincide with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. Duration of the 20+ mph winds (ensemble guidance shows this quite well) is the main limiting factor for adding a critical area. Winds in southern Nevada will also increase during the afternoon. Low-levels will be dry, but moisture/cloud influx driven by the approaching cyclone will generally limit the duration of fire weather concerns. Still, locally elevated conditions are possible, especially along the northern fringe of clouds/moisture. Scattered convection with at least some embedded thunderstorms are also possible across much of Nevada. PW values will generally be too high with southern extent and coverage/fuel receptiveness is questionable farther north. Dry lightning risk continues to be too low for highlights. ..Wendt.. 06/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue to move through the Northwest with the southern extension of the trough eventually cutting off west of the northern California coast. Near Baja, the upper cyclone will begin to lift into the Southwest ahead of the Northwest/Great Basin trough. A front will stall in the northern Great Basin with a modest surface low deepening along the boundary. ...Nevada... Elevated to locally critical fire weather appears possible in northwest Nevada in the lee of the Sierra. Downslope winds of 15-25 mph will coincide with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. Duration of the 20+ mph winds (ensemble guidance shows this quite well) is the main limiting factor for adding a critical area. Winds in southern Nevada will also increase during the afternoon. Low-levels will be dry, but moisture/cloud influx driven by the approaching cyclone will generally limit the duration of fire weather concerns. Still, locally elevated conditions are possible, especially along the northern fringe of clouds/moisture. Scattered convection with at least some embedded thunderstorms are also possible across much of Nevada. PW values will generally be too high with southern extent and coverage/fuel receptiveness is questionable farther north. Dry lightning risk continues to be too low for highlights. ..Wendt.. 06/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue to move through the Northwest with the southern extension of the trough eventually cutting off west of the northern California coast. Near Baja, the upper cyclone will begin to lift into the Southwest ahead of the Northwest/Great Basin trough. A front will stall in the northern Great Basin with a modest surface low deepening along the boundary. ...Nevada... Elevated to locally critical fire weather appears possible in northwest Nevada in the lee of the Sierra. Downslope winds of 15-25 mph will coincide with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. Duration of the 20+ mph winds (ensemble guidance shows this quite well) is the main limiting factor for adding a critical area. Winds in southern Nevada will also increase during the afternoon. Low-levels will be dry, but moisture/cloud influx driven by the approaching cyclone will generally limit the duration of fire weather concerns. Still, locally elevated conditions are possible, especially along the northern fringe of clouds/moisture. Scattered convection with at least some embedded thunderstorms are also possible across much of Nevada. PW values will generally be too high with southern extent and coverage/fuel receptiveness is questionable farther north. Dry lightning risk continues to be too low for highlights. ..Wendt.. 06/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue to move through the Northwest with the southern extension of the trough eventually cutting off west of the northern California coast. Near Baja, the upper cyclone will begin to lift into the Southwest ahead of the Northwest/Great Basin trough. A front will stall in the northern Great Basin with a modest surface low deepening along the boundary. ...Nevada... Elevated to locally critical fire weather appears possible in northwest Nevada in the lee of the Sierra. Downslope winds of 15-25 mph will coincide with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. Duration of the 20+ mph winds (ensemble guidance shows this quite well) is the main limiting factor for adding a critical area. Winds in southern Nevada will also increase during the afternoon. Low-levels will be dry, but moisture/cloud influx driven by the approaching cyclone will generally limit the duration of fire weather concerns. Still, locally elevated conditions are possible, especially along the northern fringe of clouds/moisture. Scattered convection with at least some embedded thunderstorms are also possible across much of Nevada. PW values will generally be too high with southern extent and coverage/fuel receptiveness is questionable farther north. Dry lightning risk continues to be too low for highlights. ..Wendt.. 06/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue to move through the Northwest with the southern extension of the trough eventually cutting off west of the northern California coast. Near Baja, the upper cyclone will begin to lift into the Southwest ahead of the Northwest/Great Basin trough. A front will stall in the northern Great Basin with a modest surface low deepening along the boundary. ...Nevada... Elevated to locally critical fire weather appears possible in northwest Nevada in the lee of the Sierra. Downslope winds of 15-25 mph will coincide with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. Duration of the 20+ mph winds (ensemble guidance shows this quite well) is the main limiting factor for adding a critical area. Winds in southern Nevada will also increase during the afternoon. Low-levels will be dry, but moisture/cloud influx driven by the approaching cyclone will generally limit the duration of fire weather concerns. Still, locally elevated conditions are possible, especially along the northern fringe of clouds/moisture. Scattered convection with at least some embedded thunderstorms are also possible across much of Nevada. PW values will generally be too high with southern extent and coverage/fuel receptiveness is questionable farther north. Dry lightning risk continues to be too low for highlights. ..Wendt.. 06/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue to move through the Northwest with the southern extension of the trough eventually cutting off west of the northern California coast. Near Baja, the upper cyclone will begin to lift into the Southwest ahead of the Northwest/Great Basin trough. A front will stall in the northern Great Basin with a modest surface low deepening along the boundary. ...Nevada... Elevated to locally critical fire weather appears possible in northwest Nevada in the lee of the Sierra. Downslope winds of 15-25 mph will coincide with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. Duration of the 20+ mph winds (ensemble guidance shows this quite well) is the main limiting factor for adding a critical area. Winds in southern Nevada will also increase during the afternoon. Low-levels will be dry, but moisture/cloud influx driven by the approaching cyclone will generally limit the duration of fire weather concerns. Still, locally elevated conditions are possible, especially along the northern fringe of clouds/moisture. Scattered convection with at least some embedded thunderstorms are also possible across much of Nevada. PW values will generally be too high with southern extent and coverage/fuel receptiveness is questionable farther north. Dry lightning risk continues to be too low for highlights. ..Wendt.. 06/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue to move through the Northwest with the southern extension of the trough eventually cutting off west of the northern California coast. Near Baja, the upper cyclone will begin to lift into the Southwest ahead of the Northwest/Great Basin trough. A front will stall in the northern Great Basin with a modest surface low deepening along the boundary. ...Nevada... Elevated to locally critical fire weather appears possible in northwest Nevada in the lee of the Sierra. Downslope winds of 15-25 mph will coincide with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. Duration of the 20+ mph winds (ensemble guidance shows this quite well) is the main limiting factor for adding a critical area. Winds in southern Nevada will also increase during the afternoon. Low-levels will be dry, but moisture/cloud influx driven by the approaching cyclone will generally limit the duration of fire weather concerns. Still, locally elevated conditions are possible, especially along the northern fringe of clouds/moisture. Scattered convection with at least some embedded thunderstorms are also possible across much of Nevada. PW values will generally be too high with southern extent and coverage/fuel receptiveness is questionable farther north. Dry lightning risk continues to be too low for highlights. ..Wendt.. 06/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue to move through the Northwest with the southern extension of the trough eventually cutting off west of the northern California coast. Near Baja, the upper cyclone will begin to lift into the Southwest ahead of the Northwest/Great Basin trough. A front will stall in the northern Great Basin with a modest surface low deepening along the boundary. ...Nevada... Elevated to locally critical fire weather appears possible in northwest Nevada in the lee of the Sierra. Downslope winds of 15-25 mph will coincide with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. Duration of the 20+ mph winds (ensemble guidance shows this quite well) is the main limiting factor for adding a critical area. Winds in southern Nevada will also increase during the afternoon. Low-levels will be dry, but moisture/cloud influx driven by the approaching cyclone will generally limit the duration of fire weather concerns. Still, locally elevated conditions are possible, especially along the northern fringe of clouds/moisture. Scattered convection with at least some embedded thunderstorms are also possible across much of Nevada. PW values will generally be too high with southern extent and coverage/fuel receptiveness is questionable farther north. Dry lightning risk continues to be too low for highlights. ..Wendt.. 06/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue to move through the Northwest with the southern extension of the trough eventually cutting off west of the northern California coast. Near Baja, the upper cyclone will begin to lift into the Southwest ahead of the Northwest/Great Basin trough. A front will stall in the northern Great Basin with a modest surface low deepening along the boundary. ...Nevada... Elevated to locally critical fire weather appears possible in northwest Nevada in the lee of the Sierra. Downslope winds of 15-25 mph will coincide with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. Duration of the 20+ mph winds (ensemble guidance shows this quite well) is the main limiting factor for adding a critical area. Winds in southern Nevada will also increase during the afternoon. Low-levels will be dry, but moisture/cloud influx driven by the approaching cyclone will generally limit the duration of fire weather concerns. Still, locally elevated conditions are possible, especially along the northern fringe of clouds/moisture. Scattered convection with at least some embedded thunderstorms are also possible across much of Nevada. PW values will generally be too high with southern extent and coverage/fuel receptiveness is questionable farther north. Dry lightning risk continues to be too low for highlights. ..Wendt.. 06/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN KS INTO OK AND EXTREME NORTH-CENTRAL TX... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and severe gusts remain possible tonight from southern Kansas across Oklahoma to the Red River. ...Central/southern Plains... Storms have been slow to develop along a weak surface boundary across southern KS. However, storm coverage is expected to increase with time later this evening as a vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough digs south-southeastward from Nebraska. Increasing deep-layer flow/shear, cooling temperatures aloft, and moderate buoyancy will support scattered strong to potentially severe storms, with a threat of large hail and localized severe gusts. Elevated storms may tend to redevelop during the overnight hours, and it remains possible that one or more clusters will evolve and move south-southeastward toward the Red River before the end of the forecast period. Farther north, a few strong storms may persist through the evening from southeast NE into eastern KS and western MO. Effective shear is weaker in this region compared to areas to the southwest, but relatively cool temperatures aloft could support isolated hail with the strongest storms. ...VA/NC... A general weakening trend is expected to continue with ongoing convection across parts of VA/NC, with the onset of nocturnal cooling/stabilization. However, weak buoyancy and moderate deep-layer flow could support gusty winds and small hail with the strongest remaining convection this evening. ...South FL overnight... Most guidance suggests thunderstorm redevelopment in the vicinity of the southwest FL Peninsula prior to the end of the forecast period, as a low-amplitude mid/upper-level shortwave trough and related jetlet approach the region from the northeast Gulf. Moderate buoyancy and modestly favorable deep-layer shear will support potential for a few strong storms, though any organized severe threat may not evolve until near/after 12Z. ..Dean.. 06/01/2025 Read more