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SPC Jun 1, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

3 months 1 week ago

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered large hail and isolated damaging winds are possible later today into this evening across central and east Texas. More isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the mid-Tennessee River Valley into the Carolinas, central and southern High Plains, northern Rockies, and south Florida. ...Central/eastern TX... In advance of a southeastward-moving mid/upper-level shortwave trough, elevated storms will likely be ongoing somewhere across north-central TX at the start of the period, which could pose a threat of isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts. Guidance varies regarding the strength and longevity of morning convection, leading to some spread regarding the zone of organized storm potential later in the day. One scenario is for storms to persist and reintensify through the day, as convection impinges on an increasingly warm/moist and unstable environment. Another scenario is for morning convection to substantially weaken, resulting in potential for afternoon redevelopment along the slow-moving or stationary remnant outflow boundary. Some combination of these scenarios is also possible. If morning convection weakens or is not overly extensive, then the afternoon pre-storm environment will likely be characterized by moderate to strong buoyancy, with moderate midlevel northwesterlies providing sufficient effective shear for storm organization. Supercells capable of very large hail and localized severe gusts will be possible. Some tornado potential could evolve as well, especially in a scenario where supercells interact with a modifying outflow boundary. ...TN to the Carolinas... A quasi-stationary front is forecast to extend from east-central MO southeastward into NC by early afternoon. Despite relatively modest low-level moisture, diurnal heating combined with seasonably cold temperatures aloft associated with a deep upper-level trough across the region will allow for weak to moderate destabilization near/south of the front. Isolated to scattered storm development is expected this afternoon, with somewhat greater coverage expected with eastward extent. Modestly favorable effective shear (generally 25-30 kt) may support occasionally organized storms capable of isolated damaging wind and hail. Any longer-lived clusters could pose a more concentrated wind-damage threat, though confidence in the details of any such threat is currently low. ...Eastern ID/Southwest MT/Northwest WY... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move eastward from the Pacific Northwest toward the northern Rockies by this evening. Weak to locally moderate buoyancy and increasing deep-layer shear will support potential for somewhat organized cells/clusters with an attendant threat of isolated severe gusts and hail. Depending on the extent of diurnal heating/destabilization, a localized corridor of somewhat greater potential may evolve with the broader Marginal Risk area. ...South FL... Convection is expected to redevelop early this morning and potentially spread into parts of the southwest FL Peninsula by the start of the forecast period. There will be some potential for modest diurnal heating and additional destabilization before storms spread across the rest of south FL through the morning into early afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for some storm organization and a potential threat for isolated damaging gusts and hail. ...Eastern CO/NM... Scattered storms are again expected this afternoon and evening along and east of the higher terrain in eastern CO/NM. While deep-layer flow/shear will be relatively modest, guidance suggests some increase in low-level moisture and instability by afternoon. Initial storms could pose a threat for isolated hail and strong to severe gusts. There is some potential for one or more loosely organized clusters to develop by evening and spread eastward with strong to locally severe outflow winds. ...Southern CA into southern/central AZ... A mid/upper-level cyclone will move northeastward into parts of southern CA/AZ later today. Cool temperatures aloft will overspread the region, but relatively widespread cloudiness and precipitation will tend to limit destabilization. If pockets of locally stronger heating/destabilization can develop, then a few strong storms will be possible. However, confidence is too low to include severe probabilities at this time. ...Great Basin... High-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon from parts of NV into western UT. Buoyancy and shear are both expected to remain weak, and organized convection is not expected, but localized strong outflow gusts will be possible within this regime into the early evening. ..Dean/Wendt.. 06/01/2025 Read more