Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 06/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will persist across the northern tier states today. A cutoff low off the southern California coast will move into the lower Colorado Valley by Wednesday morning. High surface pressure will remain in the Northwest/northern Rockies while a surface boundary will stall within parts of the central/southern Great Basin. Overall fire weather concerns across the CONUS will be minimal today. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible from northern California into the northern/central Great Basin. Winds will generally be too light to warrant highlights. Some stronger winds are possible in eastern Utah/western Colorado, but recent precipitation has had some impact on fuels. Locally elevated fire weather may occur where winds are locally stronger, however. Thunderstorms will occur in the Southwest, but PW values will be high and precipitation has occurred over last few days, decreasing fuel receptiveness. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 06/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will persist across the northern tier states today. A cutoff low off the southern California coast will move into the lower Colorado Valley by Wednesday morning. High surface pressure will remain in the Northwest/northern Rockies while a surface boundary will stall within parts of the central/southern Great Basin. Overall fire weather concerns across the CONUS will be minimal today. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible from northern California into the northern/central Great Basin. Winds will generally be too light to warrant highlights. Some stronger winds are possible in eastern Utah/western Colorado, but recent precipitation has had some impact on fuels. Locally elevated fire weather may occur where winds are locally stronger, however. Thunderstorms will occur in the Southwest, but PW values will be high and precipitation has occurred over last few days, decreasing fuel receptiveness. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 06/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will persist across the northern tier states today. A cutoff low off the southern California coast will move into the lower Colorado Valley by Wednesday morning. High surface pressure will remain in the Northwest/northern Rockies while a surface boundary will stall within parts of the central/southern Great Basin. Overall fire weather concerns across the CONUS will be minimal today. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible from northern California into the northern/central Great Basin. Winds will generally be too light to warrant highlights. Some stronger winds are possible in eastern Utah/western Colorado, but recent precipitation has had some impact on fuels. Locally elevated fire weather may occur where winds are locally stronger, however. Thunderstorms will occur in the Southwest, but PW values will be high and precipitation has occurred over last few days, decreasing fuel receptiveness. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 06/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will persist across the northern tier states today. A cutoff low off the southern California coast will move into the lower Colorado Valley by Wednesday morning. High surface pressure will remain in the Northwest/northern Rockies while a surface boundary will stall within parts of the central/southern Great Basin. Overall fire weather concerns across the CONUS will be minimal today. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible from northern California into the northern/central Great Basin. Winds will generally be too light to warrant highlights. Some stronger winds are possible in eastern Utah/western Colorado, but recent precipitation has had some impact on fuels. Locally elevated fire weather may occur where winds are locally stronger, however. Thunderstorms will occur in the Southwest, but PW values will be high and precipitation has occurred over last few days, decreasing fuel receptiveness. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 06/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will persist across the northern tier states today. A cutoff low off the southern California coast will move into the lower Colorado Valley by Wednesday morning. High surface pressure will remain in the Northwest/northern Rockies while a surface boundary will stall within parts of the central/southern Great Basin. Overall fire weather concerns across the CONUS will be minimal today. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible from northern California into the northern/central Great Basin. Winds will generally be too light to warrant highlights. Some stronger winds are possible in eastern Utah/western Colorado, but recent precipitation has had some impact on fuels. Locally elevated fire weather may occur where winds are locally stronger, however. Thunderstorms will occur in the Southwest, but PW values will be high and precipitation has occurred over last few days, decreasing fuel receptiveness. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 06/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will persist across the northern tier states today. A cutoff low off the southern California coast will move into the lower Colorado Valley by Wednesday morning. High surface pressure will remain in the Northwest/northern Rockies while a surface boundary will stall within parts of the central/southern Great Basin. Overall fire weather concerns across the CONUS will be minimal today. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible from northern California into the northern/central Great Basin. Winds will generally be too light to warrant highlights. Some stronger winds are possible in eastern Utah/western Colorado, but recent precipitation has had some impact on fuels. Locally elevated fire weather may occur where winds are locally stronger, however. Thunderstorms will occur in the Southwest, but PW values will be high and precipitation has occurred over last few days, decreasing fuel receptiveness. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 06/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will persist across the northern tier states today. A cutoff low off the southern California coast will move into the lower Colorado Valley by Wednesday morning. High surface pressure will remain in the Northwest/northern Rockies while a surface boundary will stall within parts of the central/southern Great Basin. Overall fire weather concerns across the CONUS will be minimal today. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible from northern California into the northern/central Great Basin. Winds will generally be too light to warrant highlights. Some stronger winds are possible in eastern Utah/western Colorado, but recent precipitation has had some impact on fuels. Locally elevated fire weather may occur where winds are locally stronger, however. Thunderstorms will occur in the Southwest, but PW values will be high and precipitation has occurred over last few days, decreasing fuel receptiveness. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 06/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will persist across the northern tier states today. A cutoff low off the southern California coast will move into the lower Colorado Valley by Wednesday morning. High surface pressure will remain in the Northwest/northern Rockies while a surface boundary will stall within parts of the central/southern Great Basin. Overall fire weather concerns across the CONUS will be minimal today. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible from northern California into the northern/central Great Basin. Winds will generally be too light to warrant highlights. Some stronger winds are possible in eastern Utah/western Colorado, but recent precipitation has had some impact on fuels. Locally elevated fire weather may occur where winds are locally stronger, however. Thunderstorms will occur in the Southwest, but PW values will be high and precipitation has occurred over last few days, decreasing fuel receptiveness. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary concerns. ...Central/Southern Plains into the Midwest... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough over eastern CO/northeastern NM, embedded within larger upper troughing that extends over much of the western and central CONUS. An extensive area of showers and thunderstorms (i.e. from the TX Hill Country into IA and MN) is ongoing ahead of this shortwave trough and its associated cold front. These showers and thunderstorms will likely continue eastward/northeastward throughout the day, which could limit diurnal heating along the frontal zone, particularly from the IL/IA border vicinity northward. This limited heating will temper the overall buoyancy in those areas, keeping the severe risk isolated despite the presence of stronger deep-layer shear than areas farther south. Moderate diurnal heating appears likely ahead of the cold front from the IA/MO/IL border intersection vicinity southwestward across MO and into eastern OK and KS. However, the amount of precipitation currently ongoing in this region and upstream does introduce some doubt to whether or not highs in the mid 80s will be realized. Even if temperatures stay in the upper 70s/low 80s, abundant low-level moisture coupled with relatively modest mid-level temperatures should still result in an uncapped airmass ahead of the front during the early afternoon. Given the line-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear across this region, expectation is for a predominantly linear storm mode, with occasional bowing segments capable of producing damaging gusts. The strongest heating ahead of the cold front is anticipated from western OK south into the TX Hill Country. Here, afternoon temperatures will likely reach the low 90s amid dewpoints in the upper 60s (perhaps even the low 70s). These surface conditions will help support strong to very strong buoyancy ahead of the front, with MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg for much of this region by 21Z. Robust thunderstorms are expected to develop when the front interacts with this buoyancy, with potential for some pre-frontal development within areas of low-level confluence as well. An initially more cellular mode is likely, and vertical shear is forecast to be strong enough to support supercells. Large hail will be the primary risk with these storms, but some low tornado potential exists as well, particularly near a low expected to be over the southwest OK/northwest TX region during the afternoon. Given the frontal forcing and widespread coverage, a quick transition to a linear mode appears likely, with damaging gusts becoming the primary severe risk. The deep-shear vector here should be more orthogonal to the line than areas farther north, fostering the potential for a more forward-propagating convective line across central OK and north-central/central TX from the late afternoon through the evening. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms should continue along the front as it moves into TX Hill Country tonight. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 06/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary concerns. ...Central/Southern Plains into the Midwest... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough over eastern CO/northeastern NM, embedded within larger upper troughing that extends over much of the western and central CONUS. An extensive area of showers and thunderstorms (i.e. from the TX Hill Country into IA and MN) is ongoing ahead of this shortwave trough and its associated cold front. These showers and thunderstorms will likely continue eastward/northeastward throughout the day, which could limit diurnal heating along the frontal zone, particularly from the IL/IA border vicinity northward. This limited heating will temper the overall buoyancy in those areas, keeping the severe risk isolated despite the presence of stronger deep-layer shear than areas farther south. Moderate diurnal heating appears likely ahead of the cold front from the IA/MO/IL border intersection vicinity southwestward across MO and into eastern OK and KS. However, the amount of precipitation currently ongoing in this region and upstream does introduce some doubt to whether or not highs in the mid 80s will be realized. Even if temperatures stay in the upper 70s/low 80s, abundant low-level moisture coupled with relatively modest mid-level temperatures should still result in an uncapped airmass ahead of the front during the early afternoon. Given the line-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear across this region, expectation is for a predominantly linear storm mode, with occasional bowing segments capable of producing damaging gusts. The strongest heating ahead of the cold front is anticipated from western OK south into the TX Hill Country. Here, afternoon temperatures will likely reach the low 90s amid dewpoints in the upper 60s (perhaps even the low 70s). These surface conditions will help support strong to very strong buoyancy ahead of the front, with MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg for much of this region by 21Z. Robust thunderstorms are expected to develop when the front interacts with this buoyancy, with potential for some pre-frontal development within areas of low-level confluence as well. An initially more cellular mode is likely, and vertical shear is forecast to be strong enough to support supercells. Large hail will be the primary risk with these storms, but some low tornado potential exists as well, particularly near a low expected to be over the southwest OK/northwest TX region during the afternoon. Given the frontal forcing and widespread coverage, a quick transition to a linear mode appears likely, with damaging gusts becoming the primary severe risk. The deep-shear vector here should be more orthogonal to the line than areas farther north, fostering the potential for a more forward-propagating convective line across central OK and north-central/central TX from the late afternoon through the evening. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms should continue along the front as it moves into TX Hill Country tonight. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 06/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary concerns. ...Central/Southern Plains into the Midwest... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough over eastern CO/northeastern NM, embedded within larger upper troughing that extends over much of the western and central CONUS. An extensive area of showers and thunderstorms (i.e. from the TX Hill Country into IA and MN) is ongoing ahead of this shortwave trough and its associated cold front. These showers and thunderstorms will likely continue eastward/northeastward throughout the day, which could limit diurnal heating along the frontal zone, particularly from the IL/IA border vicinity northward. This limited heating will temper the overall buoyancy in those areas, keeping the severe risk isolated despite the presence of stronger deep-layer shear than areas farther south. Moderate diurnal heating appears likely ahead of the cold front from the IA/MO/IL border intersection vicinity southwestward across MO and into eastern OK and KS. However, the amount of precipitation currently ongoing in this region and upstream does introduce some doubt to whether or not highs in the mid 80s will be realized. Even if temperatures stay in the upper 70s/low 80s, abundant low-level moisture coupled with relatively modest mid-level temperatures should still result in an uncapped airmass ahead of the front during the early afternoon. Given the line-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear across this region, expectation is for a predominantly linear storm mode, with occasional bowing segments capable of producing damaging gusts. The strongest heating ahead of the cold front is anticipated from western OK south into the TX Hill Country. Here, afternoon temperatures will likely reach the low 90s amid dewpoints in the upper 60s (perhaps even the low 70s). These surface conditions will help support strong to very strong buoyancy ahead of the front, with MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg for much of this region by 21Z. Robust thunderstorms are expected to develop when the front interacts with this buoyancy, with potential for some pre-frontal development within areas of low-level confluence as well. An initially more cellular mode is likely, and vertical shear is forecast to be strong enough to support supercells. Large hail will be the primary risk with these storms, but some low tornado potential exists as well, particularly near a low expected to be over the southwest OK/northwest TX region during the afternoon. Given the frontal forcing and widespread coverage, a quick transition to a linear mode appears likely, with damaging gusts becoming the primary severe risk. The deep-shear vector here should be more orthogonal to the line than areas farther north, fostering the potential for a more forward-propagating convective line across central OK and north-central/central TX from the late afternoon through the evening. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms should continue along the front as it moves into TX Hill Country tonight. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 06/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary concerns. ...Central/Southern Plains into the Midwest... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough over eastern CO/northeastern NM, embedded within larger upper troughing that extends over much of the western and central CONUS. An extensive area of showers and thunderstorms (i.e. from the TX Hill Country into IA and MN) is ongoing ahead of this shortwave trough and its associated cold front. These showers and thunderstorms will likely continue eastward/northeastward throughout the day, which could limit diurnal heating along the frontal zone, particularly from the IL/IA border vicinity northward. This limited heating will temper the overall buoyancy in those areas, keeping the severe risk isolated despite the presence of stronger deep-layer shear than areas farther south. Moderate diurnal heating appears likely ahead of the cold front from the IA/MO/IL border intersection vicinity southwestward across MO and into eastern OK and KS. However, the amount of precipitation currently ongoing in this region and upstream does introduce some doubt to whether or not highs in the mid 80s will be realized. Even if temperatures stay in the upper 70s/low 80s, abundant low-level moisture coupled with relatively modest mid-level temperatures should still result in an uncapped airmass ahead of the front during the early afternoon. Given the line-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear across this region, expectation is for a predominantly linear storm mode, with occasional bowing segments capable of producing damaging gusts. The strongest heating ahead of the cold front is anticipated from western OK south into the TX Hill Country. Here, afternoon temperatures will likely reach the low 90s amid dewpoints in the upper 60s (perhaps even the low 70s). These surface conditions will help support strong to very strong buoyancy ahead of the front, with MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg for much of this region by 21Z. Robust thunderstorms are expected to develop when the front interacts with this buoyancy, with potential for some pre-frontal development within areas of low-level confluence as well. An initially more cellular mode is likely, and vertical shear is forecast to be strong enough to support supercells. Large hail will be the primary risk with these storms, but some low tornado potential exists as well, particularly near a low expected to be over the southwest OK/northwest TX region during the afternoon. Given the frontal forcing and widespread coverage, a quick transition to a linear mode appears likely, with damaging gusts becoming the primary severe risk. The deep-shear vector here should be more orthogonal to the line than areas farther north, fostering the potential for a more forward-propagating convective line across central OK and north-central/central TX from the late afternoon through the evening. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms should continue along the front as it moves into TX Hill Country tonight. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 06/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary concerns. ...Central/Southern Plains into the Midwest... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough over eastern CO/northeastern NM, embedded within larger upper troughing that extends over much of the western and central CONUS. An extensive area of showers and thunderstorms (i.e. from the TX Hill Country into IA and MN) is ongoing ahead of this shortwave trough and its associated cold front. These showers and thunderstorms will likely continue eastward/northeastward throughout the day, which could limit diurnal heating along the frontal zone, particularly from the IL/IA border vicinity northward. This limited heating will temper the overall buoyancy in those areas, keeping the severe risk isolated despite the presence of stronger deep-layer shear than areas farther south. Moderate diurnal heating appears likely ahead of the cold front from the IA/MO/IL border intersection vicinity southwestward across MO and into eastern OK and KS. However, the amount of precipitation currently ongoing in this region and upstream does introduce some doubt to whether or not highs in the mid 80s will be realized. Even if temperatures stay in the upper 70s/low 80s, abundant low-level moisture coupled with relatively modest mid-level temperatures should still result in an uncapped airmass ahead of the front during the early afternoon. Given the line-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear across this region, expectation is for a predominantly linear storm mode, with occasional bowing segments capable of producing damaging gusts. The strongest heating ahead of the cold front is anticipated from western OK south into the TX Hill Country. Here, afternoon temperatures will likely reach the low 90s amid dewpoints in the upper 60s (perhaps even the low 70s). These surface conditions will help support strong to very strong buoyancy ahead of the front, with MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg for much of this region by 21Z. Robust thunderstorms are expected to develop when the front interacts with this buoyancy, with potential for some pre-frontal development within areas of low-level confluence as well. An initially more cellular mode is likely, and vertical shear is forecast to be strong enough to support supercells. Large hail will be the primary risk with these storms, but some low tornado potential exists as well, particularly near a low expected to be over the southwest OK/northwest TX region during the afternoon. Given the frontal forcing and widespread coverage, a quick transition to a linear mode appears likely, with damaging gusts becoming the primary severe risk. The deep-shear vector here should be more orthogonal to the line than areas farther north, fostering the potential for a more forward-propagating convective line across central OK and north-central/central TX from the late afternoon through the evening. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms should continue along the front as it moves into TX Hill Country tonight. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 06/03/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0418 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z CORRECTED FOR MISSING LABEL ON DAY 6 ...DISCUSSION... An active severe-weather pattern for repeated MCS development is anticipated through this weekend, with more nebulous potential early next week. Medium-range guidance has converged to above-average consistency with the large-scale pattern through this weekend. Enhanced zonal mid-level flow within the southern stream should overlie a seasonably rich and unstable air mass across the southern Great Plains to the Deep South. Initial signal for south-central High Plains nocturnal MCS development spreading east-southeast onto the lower plains is evident late D3 and this will probably repeat on D4/Friday night and perhaps on D5/Saturday night. This should subside as a northern-stream upper trough amplifies into the north-central states. Remnant MCVs should focus downstream diurnal thunderstorm development each afternoon through at least D6/Sunday. Given the buoyancy/shear parameter space, sufficient confidence exists for highlighting a scattered severe-storm threat on D4-5. Damaging winds appear to be the dominant hazard in this pattern. An additional area on D6 is plausible in later outlooks somewhere in the Deep South and Gulf Coast States. For D7-8, severe potential is nebulous, but may be tied to the evolution of the north-central states trough. Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Jun 2 13:42:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Jun 2 13:42:01 UTC 2025.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across the High Plains into southwestern Minnesota. Severe gusts and large hail are the expected hazards. ...Central High Plains to MN... Early morning satellite imagery depicts a northern-stream shortwave trough moving into western MT. Expectation is for this shortwave to continue eastward across MT and the northern Plains today, ending the period over far northwestern Ontario. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated over SD ahead of this shortwave. The resulting surface low will track quickly northeastward into northern MN along a seasonally strong cold front. This front, which recent surface analysis places from northwest MN into the far northern NE Panhandle, is expected to extend from the MN Arrowhead through central NE by 00Z tonight. Strong heating is expected ahead of this front, bringing temperatures into the upper 80s/low 90s from central MN into central NE. These temperatures coupled with dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s will foster airmass destabilization, and thunderstorm development is expected as the cold front and large-scale forcing for ascent interacts with this destabilized airmass. Initial thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon across MN where the strongest low-level convergence will be in place. Dewpoints (and overall buoyancy) will be lower here than areas farther southwest, which is expected to limit overall storm strength and contribute to an anafrontal storm character. Late afternoon/early evening storm development is likely farther southwest into central NE along the wind shift. Strong buoyancy will favor robust updrafts, but deep-layer shear will be modest. This weaker shear coupled with linear forcing is expected to result in a quick transition to a predominantly linear mode. As a result, some supercell threat is possible early in the convective evolution but, storm mergers and potential clustering/line segments favor a hail risk transitioning rather quickly to more wind. Large-scale ascent could also help support another area of thunderstorms over southeast WY and the adjacent NE Panhandle. The strength and/or organization of these storms is uncertain, but there is some chance they will persist long enough to interact with the storms along front, locally enhancing the severe potential. ...Southern High Plains... Satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving across the Southwest. This shortwave is forecast to reach the southern High Plains by late evening. Increasing large-scale ascent will result in scattered thunderstorms across much of the region during the afternoon and evening. Some isolated hail is possible early, but these storms are expected to become increasingly outflow dominant as they move into the deeply mixed airmass over the West TX, the TX/OK Panhandles, and southwest KS. A few severe gusts are possible. ...South FL... Shortwave trough moving over the central Gulf Coast is forecast to continue southeastward into the eastern Gulf, with increasing large-scale ascent downstream across much of the FL Peninsula. This synoptic evolution favors a considerable amount of convection, with scattered to widespread thunderstorms beginning as early as 18Z. Some occasionally strong updrafts are possible, capable of both isolated hail and damaging gusts. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 06/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across the High Plains into southwestern Minnesota. Severe gusts and large hail are the expected hazards. ...Central High Plains to MN... Early morning satellite imagery depicts a northern-stream shortwave trough moving into western MT. Expectation is for this shortwave to continue eastward across MT and the northern Plains today, ending the period over far northwestern Ontario. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated over SD ahead of this shortwave. The resulting surface low will track quickly northeastward into northern MN along a seasonally strong cold front. This front, which recent surface analysis places from northwest MN into the far northern NE Panhandle, is expected to extend from the MN Arrowhead through central NE by 00Z tonight. Strong heating is expected ahead of this front, bringing temperatures into the upper 80s/low 90s from central MN into central NE. These temperatures coupled with dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s will foster airmass destabilization, and thunderstorm development is expected as the cold front and large-scale forcing for ascent interacts with this destabilized airmass. Initial thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon across MN where the strongest low-level convergence will be in place. Dewpoints (and overall buoyancy) will be lower here than areas farther southwest, which is expected to limit overall storm strength and contribute to an anafrontal storm character. Late afternoon/early evening storm development is likely farther southwest into central NE along the wind shift. Strong buoyancy will favor robust updrafts, but deep-layer shear will be modest. This weaker shear coupled with linear forcing is expected to result in a quick transition to a predominantly linear mode. As a result, some supercell threat is possible early in the convective evolution but, storm mergers and potential clustering/line segments favor a hail risk transitioning rather quickly to more wind. Large-scale ascent could also help support another area of thunderstorms over southeast WY and the adjacent NE Panhandle. The strength and/or organization of these storms is uncertain, but there is some chance they will persist long enough to interact with the storms along front, locally enhancing the severe potential. ...Southern High Plains... Satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving across the Southwest. This shortwave is forecast to reach the southern High Plains by late evening. Increasing large-scale ascent will result in scattered thunderstorms across much of the region during the afternoon and evening. Some isolated hail is possible early, but these storms are expected to become increasingly outflow dominant as they move into the deeply mixed airmass over the West TX, the TX/OK Panhandles, and southwest KS. A few severe gusts are possible. ...South FL... Shortwave trough moving over the central Gulf Coast is forecast to continue southeastward into the eastern Gulf, with increasing large-scale ascent downstream across much of the FL Peninsula. This synoptic evolution favors a considerable amount of convection, with scattered to widespread thunderstorms beginning as early as 18Z. Some occasionally strong updrafts are possible, capable of both isolated hail and damaging gusts. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 06/02/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Latest guidance has trended towards a climatologically active extended period for severe potential. It appears that 15 percent severe areas will likely be delineated each day within a persistent split-flow regime. Belts of enhanced mid-level westerlies should accompany the train of low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave impulses. Meanwhile, above-average agreement exists with the amplification of a large-scale trough into the north-central states towards the end of the period. This would suppress the southern stream southward in the southern Great Plains to Deep South. Reliably timing individual low-amplitude impulses/MCVs can be difficult in this setup. But it appears that the initial impulse ejecting across the southern Rockies around 12Z Thursday should serve to focus severe potential from the TX Panhandle into southern KS on D4. This feature may continue eastward towards the Mid-MS Valley/eastern Midwest on D5/Friday. But with probable weak mid-level lapse rates downstream and lack of run-to-run continuity across guidance, will defer on a 15 percent area highlight. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Latest guidance has trended towards a climatologically active extended period for severe potential. It appears that 15 percent severe areas will likely be delineated each day within a persistent split-flow regime. Belts of enhanced mid-level westerlies should accompany the train of low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave impulses. Meanwhile, above-average agreement exists with the amplification of a large-scale trough into the north-central states towards the end of the period. This would suppress the southern stream southward in the southern Great Plains to Deep South. Reliably timing individual low-amplitude impulses/MCVs can be difficult in this setup. But it appears that the initial impulse ejecting across the southern Rockies around 12Z Thursday should serve to focus severe potential from the TX Panhandle into southern KS on D4. This feature may continue eastward towards the Mid-MS Valley/eastern Midwest on D5/Friday. But with probable weak mid-level lapse rates downstream and lack of run-to-run continuity across guidance, will defer on a 15 percent area highlight. Read more