Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow over much of the West, Plains, and Midwest will continue on Tuesday. The cutoff low in southern California will reach the lower Colorado Valley by Wednesday morning. A surface boundary will stall in the central Great Basin. While dry and breezy conditions are possible north of the boundary in parts of Nevada/Utah/western Colorado, precipitation from Monday will likely have some impact on fuels. Furthermore, cloud cover from additional activity in the Southwest will also have some tendency to keep RH higher. Given these factors, only locally elevated conditions are expected where rainfall amounts remain minimal. ..Wendt.. 06/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow over much of the West, Plains, and Midwest will continue on Tuesday. The cutoff low in southern California will reach the lower Colorado Valley by Wednesday morning. A surface boundary will stall in the central Great Basin. While dry and breezy conditions are possible north of the boundary in parts of Nevada/Utah/western Colorado, precipitation from Monday will likely have some impact on fuels. Furthermore, cloud cover from additional activity in the Southwest will also have some tendency to keep RH higher. Given these factors, only locally elevated conditions are expected where rainfall amounts remain minimal. ..Wendt.. 06/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow over much of the West, Plains, and Midwest will continue on Tuesday. The cutoff low in southern California will reach the lower Colorado Valley by Wednesday morning. A surface boundary will stall in the central Great Basin. While dry and breezy conditions are possible north of the boundary in parts of Nevada/Utah/western Colorado, precipitation from Monday will likely have some impact on fuels. Furthermore, cloud cover from additional activity in the Southwest will also have some tendency to keep RH higher. Given these factors, only locally elevated conditions are expected where rainfall amounts remain minimal. ..Wendt.. 06/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow over much of the West, Plains, and Midwest will continue on Tuesday. The cutoff low in southern California will reach the lower Colorado Valley by Wednesday morning. A surface boundary will stall in the central Great Basin. While dry and breezy conditions are possible north of the boundary in parts of Nevada/Utah/western Colorado, precipitation from Monday will likely have some impact on fuels. Furthermore, cloud cover from additional activity in the Southwest will also have some tendency to keep RH higher. Given these factors, only locally elevated conditions are expected where rainfall amounts remain minimal. ..Wendt.. 06/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow over much of the West, Plains, and Midwest will continue on Tuesday. The cutoff low in southern California will reach the lower Colorado Valley by Wednesday morning. A surface boundary will stall in the central Great Basin. While dry and breezy conditions are possible north of the boundary in parts of Nevada/Utah/western Colorado, precipitation from Monday will likely have some impact on fuels. Furthermore, cloud cover from additional activity in the Southwest will also have some tendency to keep RH higher. Given these factors, only locally elevated conditions are expected where rainfall amounts remain minimal. ..Wendt.. 06/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will be present across much of the northern tier states today. A cutoff upper low will slowly sag southeastward off the southern California coast. High pressure will move into the Northwest and northern Rockies. A surface front will stall in the central/southern Great Basin. ...Sacramento Valley... A few hours of elevated fire weather appears probable in the northern Sacramento Valley during the morning into the early afternoon. Northerly winds of 15-25 mph will occur along with RH falling to 15-20%. While fuels are only marginally receptive (ERCs just not reaching the 70th percentile per ONCC), the critical meteorological conditions suggest at least some risk for fire spread. ..Wendt.. 06/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will be present across much of the northern tier states today. A cutoff upper low will slowly sag southeastward off the southern California coast. High pressure will move into the Northwest and northern Rockies. A surface front will stall in the central/southern Great Basin. ...Sacramento Valley... A few hours of elevated fire weather appears probable in the northern Sacramento Valley during the morning into the early afternoon. Northerly winds of 15-25 mph will occur along with RH falling to 15-20%. While fuels are only marginally receptive (ERCs just not reaching the 70th percentile per ONCC), the critical meteorological conditions suggest at least some risk for fire spread. ..Wendt.. 06/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will be present across much of the northern tier states today. A cutoff upper low will slowly sag southeastward off the southern California coast. High pressure will move into the Northwest and northern Rockies. A surface front will stall in the central/southern Great Basin. ...Sacramento Valley... A few hours of elevated fire weather appears probable in the northern Sacramento Valley during the morning into the early afternoon. Northerly winds of 15-25 mph will occur along with RH falling to 15-20%. While fuels are only marginally receptive (ERCs just not reaching the 70th percentile per ONCC), the critical meteorological conditions suggest at least some risk for fire spread. ..Wendt.. 06/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will be present across much of the northern tier states today. A cutoff upper low will slowly sag southeastward off the southern California coast. High pressure will move into the Northwest and northern Rockies. A surface front will stall in the central/southern Great Basin. ...Sacramento Valley... A few hours of elevated fire weather appears probable in the northern Sacramento Valley during the morning into the early afternoon. Northerly winds of 15-25 mph will occur along with RH falling to 15-20%. While fuels are only marginally receptive (ERCs just not reaching the 70th percentile per ONCC), the critical meteorological conditions suggest at least some risk for fire spread. ..Wendt.. 06/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will be present across much of the northern tier states today. A cutoff upper low will slowly sag southeastward off the southern California coast. High pressure will move into the Northwest and northern Rockies. A surface front will stall in the central/southern Great Basin. ...Sacramento Valley... A few hours of elevated fire weather appears probable in the northern Sacramento Valley during the morning into the early afternoon. Northerly winds of 15-25 mph will occur along with RH falling to 15-20%. While fuels are only marginally receptive (ERCs just not reaching the 70th percentile per ONCC), the critical meteorological conditions suggest at least some risk for fire spread. ..Wendt.. 06/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will be present across much of the northern tier states today. A cutoff upper low will slowly sag southeastward off the southern California coast. High pressure will move into the Northwest and northern Rockies. A surface front will stall in the central/southern Great Basin. ...Sacramento Valley... A few hours of elevated fire weather appears probable in the northern Sacramento Valley during the morning into the early afternoon. Northerly winds of 15-25 mph will occur along with RH falling to 15-20%. While fuels are only marginally receptive (ERCs just not reaching the 70th percentile per ONCC), the critical meteorological conditions suggest at least some risk for fire spread. ..Wendt.. 06/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE MID-MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest, mainly from midday to mid-evening Tuesday. A couple tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail may occur. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave impulse should begin phasing with a northern-stream shortwave trough in the Upper Midwest. This process will aid in strengthening mid-level southwesterlies across the northern part of the warm-moist sector, roughly from the IA/IL border area northward. Weak cyclogenesis should be induced along the WI portion of a progressive cold front. Trailing portion of this front will push southeast in OK/TX as a surface ridge builds south into the southern High Plains. ...TX Big Country to the Ozarks... More pronounced boundary-layer heating is likely to occur with southern extent across this portion of the warm sector characterized by rich low-level moisture. A warm mid-level thermal profile should yield modest lapse rates and support largely moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg on Tuesday afternoon. But this portion of the warm sector front will have a more westerly wind profile in the mid/upper-levels, supportive of initial slow-moving supercells. Widespread afternoon thunderstorms are expected from southeast KS through western OK, with isolated to scattered storms into north TX during the evening. Upscale growth into clusters and eventual linear segments is likely, especially as composite outflows serve as the effective cold front. Initial large hail with a tornado or two, transitioning to more of a damaging wind threat is anticipated. The severe threat should diminish as it shifts south/east Monday night. ...Mid-MS Valley to southern/eastern WI... A strong and broad low-level jet on Monday will aid in rich moisture return ahead of the surface front into at least WI by Tuesday. Areas of convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z within the attendant warm conveyor and a favorably diffluent upper-flow regime. Mid-level lapse rates will be poor to weak, owing to both preceding convection and relatively warm 500-mb temperatures attendant to the southern-stream impulse. Guidance consensus suggests that appreciable boundary-layer heating may be displaced east and south of the rich moisture plume. As such, confidence is below-average regarding the northeast extent of the level 2-SLGT risk. But given the presence of seasonably strong 700-mb southwesterlies, some damaging wind threat remains apparent to at least the Mid-MS Valley with late-afternoon/early-evening scattered storms. ..Grams.. 06/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE MID-MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest, mainly from midday to mid-evening Tuesday. A couple tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail may occur. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave impulse should begin phasing with a northern-stream shortwave trough in the Upper Midwest. This process will aid in strengthening mid-level southwesterlies across the northern part of the warm-moist sector, roughly from the IA/IL border area northward. Weak cyclogenesis should be induced along the WI portion of a progressive cold front. Trailing portion of this front will push southeast in OK/TX as a surface ridge builds south into the southern High Plains. ...TX Big Country to the Ozarks... More pronounced boundary-layer heating is likely to occur with southern extent across this portion of the warm sector characterized by rich low-level moisture. A warm mid-level thermal profile should yield modest lapse rates and support largely moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg on Tuesday afternoon. But this portion of the warm sector front will have a more westerly wind profile in the mid/upper-levels, supportive of initial slow-moving supercells. Widespread afternoon thunderstorms are expected from southeast KS through western OK, with isolated to scattered storms into north TX during the evening. Upscale growth into clusters and eventual linear segments is likely, especially as composite outflows serve as the effective cold front. Initial large hail with a tornado or two, transitioning to more of a damaging wind threat is anticipated. The severe threat should diminish as it shifts south/east Monday night. ...Mid-MS Valley to southern/eastern WI... A strong and broad low-level jet on Monday will aid in rich moisture return ahead of the surface front into at least WI by Tuesday. Areas of convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z within the attendant warm conveyor and a favorably diffluent upper-flow regime. Mid-level lapse rates will be poor to weak, owing to both preceding convection and relatively warm 500-mb temperatures attendant to the southern-stream impulse. Guidance consensus suggests that appreciable boundary-layer heating may be displaced east and south of the rich moisture plume. As such, confidence is below-average regarding the northeast extent of the level 2-SLGT risk. But given the presence of seasonably strong 700-mb southwesterlies, some damaging wind threat remains apparent to at least the Mid-MS Valley with late-afternoon/early-evening scattered storms. ..Grams.. 06/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE MID-MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest, mainly from midday to mid-evening Tuesday. A couple tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail may occur. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave impulse should begin phasing with a northern-stream shortwave trough in the Upper Midwest. This process will aid in strengthening mid-level southwesterlies across the northern part of the warm-moist sector, roughly from the IA/IL border area northward. Weak cyclogenesis should be induced along the WI portion of a progressive cold front. Trailing portion of this front will push southeast in OK/TX as a surface ridge builds south into the southern High Plains. ...TX Big Country to the Ozarks... More pronounced boundary-layer heating is likely to occur with southern extent across this portion of the warm sector characterized by rich low-level moisture. A warm mid-level thermal profile should yield modest lapse rates and support largely moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg on Tuesday afternoon. But this portion of the warm sector front will have a more westerly wind profile in the mid/upper-levels, supportive of initial slow-moving supercells. Widespread afternoon thunderstorms are expected from southeast KS through western OK, with isolated to scattered storms into north TX during the evening. Upscale growth into clusters and eventual linear segments is likely, especially as composite outflows serve as the effective cold front. Initial large hail with a tornado or two, transitioning to more of a damaging wind threat is anticipated. The severe threat should diminish as it shifts south/east Monday night. ...Mid-MS Valley to southern/eastern WI... A strong and broad low-level jet on Monday will aid in rich moisture return ahead of the surface front into at least WI by Tuesday. Areas of convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z within the attendant warm conveyor and a favorably diffluent upper-flow regime. Mid-level lapse rates will be poor to weak, owing to both preceding convection and relatively warm 500-mb temperatures attendant to the southern-stream impulse. Guidance consensus suggests that appreciable boundary-layer heating may be displaced east and south of the rich moisture plume. As such, confidence is below-average regarding the northeast extent of the level 2-SLGT risk. But given the presence of seasonably strong 700-mb southwesterlies, some damaging wind threat remains apparent to at least the Mid-MS Valley with late-afternoon/early-evening scattered storms. ..Grams.. 06/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE MID-MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest, mainly from midday to mid-evening Tuesday. A couple tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail may occur. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave impulse should begin phasing with a northern-stream shortwave trough in the Upper Midwest. This process will aid in strengthening mid-level southwesterlies across the northern part of the warm-moist sector, roughly from the IA/IL border area northward. Weak cyclogenesis should be induced along the WI portion of a progressive cold front. Trailing portion of this front will push southeast in OK/TX as a surface ridge builds south into the southern High Plains. ...TX Big Country to the Ozarks... More pronounced boundary-layer heating is likely to occur with southern extent across this portion of the warm sector characterized by rich low-level moisture. A warm mid-level thermal profile should yield modest lapse rates and support largely moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg on Tuesday afternoon. But this portion of the warm sector front will have a more westerly wind profile in the mid/upper-levels, supportive of initial slow-moving supercells. Widespread afternoon thunderstorms are expected from southeast KS through western OK, with isolated to scattered storms into north TX during the evening. Upscale growth into clusters and eventual linear segments is likely, especially as composite outflows serve as the effective cold front. Initial large hail with a tornado or two, transitioning to more of a damaging wind threat is anticipated. The severe threat should diminish as it shifts south/east Monday night. ...Mid-MS Valley to southern/eastern WI... A strong and broad low-level jet on Monday will aid in rich moisture return ahead of the surface front into at least WI by Tuesday. Areas of convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z within the attendant warm conveyor and a favorably diffluent upper-flow regime. Mid-level lapse rates will be poor to weak, owing to both preceding convection and relatively warm 500-mb temperatures attendant to the southern-stream impulse. Guidance consensus suggests that appreciable boundary-layer heating may be displaced east and south of the rich moisture plume. As such, confidence is below-average regarding the northeast extent of the level 2-SLGT risk. But given the presence of seasonably strong 700-mb southwesterlies, some damaging wind threat remains apparent to at least the Mid-MS Valley with late-afternoon/early-evening scattered storms. ..Grams.. 06/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE MID-MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest, mainly from midday to mid-evening Tuesday. A couple tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail may occur. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave impulse should begin phasing with a northern-stream shortwave trough in the Upper Midwest. This process will aid in strengthening mid-level southwesterlies across the northern part of the warm-moist sector, roughly from the IA/IL border area northward. Weak cyclogenesis should be induced along the WI portion of a progressive cold front. Trailing portion of this front will push southeast in OK/TX as a surface ridge builds south into the southern High Plains. ...TX Big Country to the Ozarks... More pronounced boundary-layer heating is likely to occur with southern extent across this portion of the warm sector characterized by rich low-level moisture. A warm mid-level thermal profile should yield modest lapse rates and support largely moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg on Tuesday afternoon. But this portion of the warm sector front will have a more westerly wind profile in the mid/upper-levels, supportive of initial slow-moving supercells. Widespread afternoon thunderstorms are expected from southeast KS through western OK, with isolated to scattered storms into north TX during the evening. Upscale growth into clusters and eventual linear segments is likely, especially as composite outflows serve as the effective cold front. Initial large hail with a tornado or two, transitioning to more of a damaging wind threat is anticipated. The severe threat should diminish as it shifts south/east Monday night. ...Mid-MS Valley to southern/eastern WI... A strong and broad low-level jet on Monday will aid in rich moisture return ahead of the surface front into at least WI by Tuesday. Areas of convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z within the attendant warm conveyor and a favorably diffluent upper-flow regime. Mid-level lapse rates will be poor to weak, owing to both preceding convection and relatively warm 500-mb temperatures attendant to the southern-stream impulse. Guidance consensus suggests that appreciable boundary-layer heating may be displaced east and south of the rich moisture plume. As such, confidence is below-average regarding the northeast extent of the level 2-SLGT risk. But given the presence of seasonably strong 700-mb southwesterlies, some damaging wind threat remains apparent to at least the Mid-MS Valley with late-afternoon/early-evening scattered storms. ..Grams.. 06/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE MID-MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest, mainly from midday to mid-evening Tuesday. A couple tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail may occur. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave impulse should begin phasing with a northern-stream shortwave trough in the Upper Midwest. This process will aid in strengthening mid-level southwesterlies across the northern part of the warm-moist sector, roughly from the IA/IL border area northward. Weak cyclogenesis should be induced along the WI portion of a progressive cold front. Trailing portion of this front will push southeast in OK/TX as a surface ridge builds south into the southern High Plains. ...TX Big Country to the Ozarks... More pronounced boundary-layer heating is likely to occur with southern extent across this portion of the warm sector characterized by rich low-level moisture. A warm mid-level thermal profile should yield modest lapse rates and support largely moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg on Tuesday afternoon. But this portion of the warm sector front will have a more westerly wind profile in the mid/upper-levels, supportive of initial slow-moving supercells. Widespread afternoon thunderstorms are expected from southeast KS through western OK, with isolated to scattered storms into north TX during the evening. Upscale growth into clusters and eventual linear segments is likely, especially as composite outflows serve as the effective cold front. Initial large hail with a tornado or two, transitioning to more of a damaging wind threat is anticipated. The severe threat should diminish as it shifts south/east Monday night. ...Mid-MS Valley to southern/eastern WI... A strong and broad low-level jet on Monday will aid in rich moisture return ahead of the surface front into at least WI by Tuesday. Areas of convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z within the attendant warm conveyor and a favorably diffluent upper-flow regime. Mid-level lapse rates will be poor to weak, owing to both preceding convection and relatively warm 500-mb temperatures attendant to the southern-stream impulse. Guidance consensus suggests that appreciable boundary-layer heating may be displaced east and south of the rich moisture plume. As such, confidence is below-average regarding the northeast extent of the level 2-SLGT risk. But given the presence of seasonably strong 700-mb southwesterlies, some damaging wind threat remains apparent to at least the Mid-MS Valley with late-afternoon/early-evening scattered storms. ..Grams.. 06/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE MID-MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest, mainly from midday to mid-evening Tuesday. A couple tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail may occur. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave impulse should begin phasing with a northern-stream shortwave trough in the Upper Midwest. This process will aid in strengthening mid-level southwesterlies across the northern part of the warm-moist sector, roughly from the IA/IL border area northward. Weak cyclogenesis should be induced along the WI portion of a progressive cold front. Trailing portion of this front will push southeast in OK/TX as a surface ridge builds south into the southern High Plains. ...TX Big Country to the Ozarks... More pronounced boundary-layer heating is likely to occur with southern extent across this portion of the warm sector characterized by rich low-level moisture. A warm mid-level thermal profile should yield modest lapse rates and support largely moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg on Tuesday afternoon. But this portion of the warm sector front will have a more westerly wind profile in the mid/upper-levels, supportive of initial slow-moving supercells. Widespread afternoon thunderstorms are expected from southeast KS through western OK, with isolated to scattered storms into north TX during the evening. Upscale growth into clusters and eventual linear segments is likely, especially as composite outflows serve as the effective cold front. Initial large hail with a tornado or two, transitioning to more of a damaging wind threat is anticipated. The severe threat should diminish as it shifts south/east Monday night. ...Mid-MS Valley to southern/eastern WI... A strong and broad low-level jet on Monday will aid in rich moisture return ahead of the surface front into at least WI by Tuesday. Areas of convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z within the attendant warm conveyor and a favorably diffluent upper-flow regime. Mid-level lapse rates will be poor to weak, owing to both preceding convection and relatively warm 500-mb temperatures attendant to the southern-stream impulse. Guidance consensus suggests that appreciable boundary-layer heating may be displaced east and south of the rich moisture plume. As such, confidence is below-average regarding the northeast extent of the level 2-SLGT risk. But given the presence of seasonably strong 700-mb southwesterlies, some damaging wind threat remains apparent to at least the Mid-MS Valley with late-afternoon/early-evening scattered storms. ..Grams.. 06/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across the High Plains into southwestern Minnesota. Severe gusts and large hail are the expected hazards. ...High Plains to southwestern MN... Strong northern-stream short-wave trough is currently located over southeastern BC into the northern inter mountain region. This feature is forecast to advance into eastern MT/WY by 03/00z as 60+kt 500mb flow translates into the northern Dakotas. During the latter half of the period, mid-level heights will be suppressed across this region and a pronounced surface anticyclone will force a strong cold front to surge across the eastern Dakotas/NE into the upper MS Valley. Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will be noted ahead of the cold front with the steepest 0-3km lapse rates forecast across the central High Plains, and across portions of northern MN by late afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will be breached just ahead of the surging cold front by 21-22z, and scattered convection should readily develop along the wind shift. While some supercell threat is expected, especially early in the convective evolution, storm mergers and potential clustering/line segments favor a hail risk transitioning to more wind. Farther south into the TX Panhandle region, a well-defined upper low is beginning to eject northeast across the northern Baja Peninsula. This feature will open up and progress into the southern High Plains by late evening. Large-scale forcing ahead of the short wave will prove instrumental in aiding scattered robust convection across much of the southern High Plains by late afternoon. Forecast soundings are not particularly noteworthy, but amply buoyant and adequately sheared for some convective organization. While some hail risk appears possible early, locally damaging winds may be more common as convection spreads east during the evening hours, aided by southern-stream short wave. ...South Florida... Strong short-wave trough is digging southeast across the lower MS Valley, and will progress into the eastern Gulf Basin by late afternoon. Some increase in mid-level flow is expected across the southern Peninsula, along with a LLJ by early evening across southeast FL. This synoptic evolution favors a considerable amount of convection across this region as large-scale support increases ahead of the short wave. Scattered-widespread thunderstorms, beginning as early as 18z, are expected. Some of this activity may be robust at times. Have introduced a MRGL Risk to account for a local wind/hail threat with this activity. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 06/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across the High Plains into southwestern Minnesota. Severe gusts and large hail are the expected hazards. ...High Plains to southwestern MN... Strong northern-stream short-wave trough is currently located over southeastern BC into the northern inter mountain region. This feature is forecast to advance into eastern MT/WY by 03/00z as 60+kt 500mb flow translates into the northern Dakotas. During the latter half of the period, mid-level heights will be suppressed across this region and a pronounced surface anticyclone will force a strong cold front to surge across the eastern Dakotas/NE into the upper MS Valley. Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will be noted ahead of the cold front with the steepest 0-3km lapse rates forecast across the central High Plains, and across portions of northern MN by late afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will be breached just ahead of the surging cold front by 21-22z, and scattered convection should readily develop along the wind shift. While some supercell threat is expected, especially early in the convective evolution, storm mergers and potential clustering/line segments favor a hail risk transitioning to more wind. Farther south into the TX Panhandle region, a well-defined upper low is beginning to eject northeast across the northern Baja Peninsula. This feature will open up and progress into the southern High Plains by late evening. Large-scale forcing ahead of the short wave will prove instrumental in aiding scattered robust convection across much of the southern High Plains by late afternoon. Forecast soundings are not particularly noteworthy, but amply buoyant and adequately sheared for some convective organization. While some hail risk appears possible early, locally damaging winds may be more common as convection spreads east during the evening hours, aided by southern-stream short wave. ...South Florida... Strong short-wave trough is digging southeast across the lower MS Valley, and will progress into the eastern Gulf Basin by late afternoon. Some increase in mid-level flow is expected across the southern Peninsula, along with a LLJ by early evening across southeast FL. This synoptic evolution favors a considerable amount of convection across this region as large-scale support increases ahead of the short wave. Scattered-widespread thunderstorms, beginning as early as 18z, are expected. Some of this activity may be robust at times. Have introduced a MRGL Risk to account for a local wind/hail threat with this activity. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 06/02/2025 Read more