Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered areas of severe thunderstorm development are possible today into tonight, accompanied by potential for severe hail and wind across parts of the Great Plains, the Upper Midwest, the Texas coastal plain into the Lower Mississippi Valley, as well as a portion of the northern Mid-Atlantic. ...20z Update... The primary change for this update is to remove risk probabilities across parts of eastern TX and western LA in the wake of a gradually strengthening convective band/MCS where conditions have stabilized. Low-end risk probabilities have been expanded slightly across south TX to account for the southeastward propagation of a convective cluster developing on the outflow of the prior MCS. Recent RAP mesoanalysis estimates/forecast soundings suggest the downstream convective environment may be supportive of organized convection through early evening. Elsewhere, the forecast largely remains on track with few adjustments required. Convection developing within the upslope flow regime across the central High Plains should increase in coverage and intensity as ascent associated with a weak mid-level perturbation (currently over northern UT) overspreads the region. Across the Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, temperatures have warmed into the mid-80s, which should minimize inhibition based on forecast soundings; however, satellite imagery continues to show meager vertical development of cumulus along the frontal zone, which limits confidence in convective initiation and the overall severe threat. See the previous discussion (below) and MCD #1260 for additional details. ..Moore.. 06/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025/ ...North-central Plains including Nebraska/South Dakota... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and associated speed max will progress eastward over the northern High Plains, from southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming toward the Dakotas. Related forcing for ascent and a moderate belt of mid-level westerlies will overlie a wavy frontal zone across southern South Dakota and western Nebraska. At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected into mid/late afternoon, with moderate buoyancy and 35-45 kt effective shear (especially northern Nebraska northward) supportive of supercells. Large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...South/East Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South... An extensive MCS and prominent outflow remain primary forecast factors today, with outflow now having progressed off the middle/upper Texas coast. An enhanced low/mid-level wind field on the eastern periphery of the convectively augmented upper low will continue to contribute to some supercell/tornado risk within a moist environment, although cloud cover and thermodynamic limitations may persist. Damaging winds may also occur on a sporadic/relatively limited basis regionally. ...Southeast/southern Appalachians... Strong heating is expected today across parts of Georgia into the Carolinas, where temperatures in the upper 80s F and dewpoints near 70F are forecast. This will lead to widespread moderate CAPE values and the development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Vertical shear is weak, but a few weakly organized thunderstorm clusters may reach severe intensity with gusty/damaging winds. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... With full insolation, moderate destabilization will steadily develop this afternoon near/south of a southward-moving front. While ingredients are severe-storm supportive, the extent of deep convective development may be limited by modest overall forcing/low-level convergence, but at least isolated damaging winds/hail will be possible where storms do develop. Favorable deep-layer shear (40+ kt effective) is conditionally supportive of well-organized storms including supercells. In a relative sense, severe storm development currently appears most probable across eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and potentially toward the Great NYC Metro vicinity/far southeast New York. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered areas of severe thunderstorm development are possible today into tonight, accompanied by potential for severe hail and wind across parts of the Great Plains, the Upper Midwest, the Texas coastal plain into the Lower Mississippi Valley, as well as a portion of the northern Mid-Atlantic. ...20z Update... The primary change for this update is to remove risk probabilities across parts of eastern TX and western LA in the wake of a gradually strengthening convective band/MCS where conditions have stabilized. Low-end risk probabilities have been expanded slightly across south TX to account for the southeastward propagation of a convective cluster developing on the outflow of the prior MCS. Recent RAP mesoanalysis estimates/forecast soundings suggest the downstream convective environment may be supportive of organized convection through early evening. Elsewhere, the forecast largely remains on track with few adjustments required. Convection developing within the upslope flow regime across the central High Plains should increase in coverage and intensity as ascent associated with a weak mid-level perturbation (currently over northern UT) overspreads the region. Across the Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, temperatures have warmed into the mid-80s, which should minimize inhibition based on forecast soundings; however, satellite imagery continues to show meager vertical development of cumulus along the frontal zone, which limits confidence in convective initiation and the overall severe threat. See the previous discussion (below) and MCD #1260 for additional details. ..Moore.. 06/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025/ ...North-central Plains including Nebraska/South Dakota... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and associated speed max will progress eastward over the northern High Plains, from southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming toward the Dakotas. Related forcing for ascent and a moderate belt of mid-level westerlies will overlie a wavy frontal zone across southern South Dakota and western Nebraska. At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected into mid/late afternoon, with moderate buoyancy and 35-45 kt effective shear (especially northern Nebraska northward) supportive of supercells. Large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...South/East Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South... An extensive MCS and prominent outflow remain primary forecast factors today, with outflow now having progressed off the middle/upper Texas coast. An enhanced low/mid-level wind field on the eastern periphery of the convectively augmented upper low will continue to contribute to some supercell/tornado risk within a moist environment, although cloud cover and thermodynamic limitations may persist. Damaging winds may also occur on a sporadic/relatively limited basis regionally. ...Southeast/southern Appalachians... Strong heating is expected today across parts of Georgia into the Carolinas, where temperatures in the upper 80s F and dewpoints near 70F are forecast. This will lead to widespread moderate CAPE values and the development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Vertical shear is weak, but a few weakly organized thunderstorm clusters may reach severe intensity with gusty/damaging winds. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... With full insolation, moderate destabilization will steadily develop this afternoon near/south of a southward-moving front. While ingredients are severe-storm supportive, the extent of deep convective development may be limited by modest overall forcing/low-level convergence, but at least isolated damaging winds/hail will be possible where storms do develop. Favorable deep-layer shear (40+ kt effective) is conditionally supportive of well-organized storms including supercells. In a relative sense, severe storm development currently appears most probable across eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and potentially toward the Great NYC Metro vicinity/far southeast New York. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered areas of severe thunderstorm development are possible today into tonight, accompanied by potential for severe hail and wind across parts of the Great Plains, the Upper Midwest, the Texas coastal plain into the Lower Mississippi Valley, as well as a portion of the northern Mid-Atlantic. ...20z Update... The primary change for this update is to remove risk probabilities across parts of eastern TX and western LA in the wake of a gradually strengthening convective band/MCS where conditions have stabilized. Low-end risk probabilities have been expanded slightly across south TX to account for the southeastward propagation of a convective cluster developing on the outflow of the prior MCS. Recent RAP mesoanalysis estimates/forecast soundings suggest the downstream convective environment may be supportive of organized convection through early evening. Elsewhere, the forecast largely remains on track with few adjustments required. Convection developing within the upslope flow regime across the central High Plains should increase in coverage and intensity as ascent associated with a weak mid-level perturbation (currently over northern UT) overspreads the region. Across the Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, temperatures have warmed into the mid-80s, which should minimize inhibition based on forecast soundings; however, satellite imagery continues to show meager vertical development of cumulus along the frontal zone, which limits confidence in convective initiation and the overall severe threat. See the previous discussion (below) and MCD #1260 for additional details. ..Moore.. 06/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025/ ...North-central Plains including Nebraska/South Dakota... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and associated speed max will progress eastward over the northern High Plains, from southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming toward the Dakotas. Related forcing for ascent and a moderate belt of mid-level westerlies will overlie a wavy frontal zone across southern South Dakota and western Nebraska. At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected into mid/late afternoon, with moderate buoyancy and 35-45 kt effective shear (especially northern Nebraska northward) supportive of supercells. Large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...South/East Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South... An extensive MCS and prominent outflow remain primary forecast factors today, with outflow now having progressed off the middle/upper Texas coast. An enhanced low/mid-level wind field on the eastern periphery of the convectively augmented upper low will continue to contribute to some supercell/tornado risk within a moist environment, although cloud cover and thermodynamic limitations may persist. Damaging winds may also occur on a sporadic/relatively limited basis regionally. ...Southeast/southern Appalachians... Strong heating is expected today across parts of Georgia into the Carolinas, where temperatures in the upper 80s F and dewpoints near 70F are forecast. This will lead to widespread moderate CAPE values and the development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Vertical shear is weak, but a few weakly organized thunderstorm clusters may reach severe intensity with gusty/damaging winds. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... With full insolation, moderate destabilization will steadily develop this afternoon near/south of a southward-moving front. While ingredients are severe-storm supportive, the extent of deep convective development may be limited by modest overall forcing/low-level convergence, but at least isolated damaging winds/hail will be possible where storms do develop. Favorable deep-layer shear (40+ kt effective) is conditionally supportive of well-organized storms including supercells. In a relative sense, severe storm development currently appears most probable across eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and potentially toward the Great NYC Metro vicinity/far southeast New York. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered areas of severe thunderstorm development are possible today into tonight, accompanied by potential for severe hail and wind across parts of the Great Plains, the Upper Midwest, the Texas coastal plain into the Lower Mississippi Valley, as well as a portion of the northern Mid-Atlantic. ...20z Update... The primary change for this update is to remove risk probabilities across parts of eastern TX and western LA in the wake of a gradually strengthening convective band/MCS where conditions have stabilized. Low-end risk probabilities have been expanded slightly across south TX to account for the southeastward propagation of a convective cluster developing on the outflow of the prior MCS. Recent RAP mesoanalysis estimates/forecast soundings suggest the downstream convective environment may be supportive of organized convection through early evening. Elsewhere, the forecast largely remains on track with few adjustments required. Convection developing within the upslope flow regime across the central High Plains should increase in coverage and intensity as ascent associated with a weak mid-level perturbation (currently over northern UT) overspreads the region. Across the Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, temperatures have warmed into the mid-80s, which should minimize inhibition based on forecast soundings; however, satellite imagery continues to show meager vertical development of cumulus along the frontal zone, which limits confidence in convective initiation and the overall severe threat. See the previous discussion (below) and MCD #1260 for additional details. ..Moore.. 06/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025/ ...North-central Plains including Nebraska/South Dakota... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and associated speed max will progress eastward over the northern High Plains, from southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming toward the Dakotas. Related forcing for ascent and a moderate belt of mid-level westerlies will overlie a wavy frontal zone across southern South Dakota and western Nebraska. At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected into mid/late afternoon, with moderate buoyancy and 35-45 kt effective shear (especially northern Nebraska northward) supportive of supercells. Large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...South/East Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South... An extensive MCS and prominent outflow remain primary forecast factors today, with outflow now having progressed off the middle/upper Texas coast. An enhanced low/mid-level wind field on the eastern periphery of the convectively augmented upper low will continue to contribute to some supercell/tornado risk within a moist environment, although cloud cover and thermodynamic limitations may persist. Damaging winds may also occur on a sporadic/relatively limited basis regionally. ...Southeast/southern Appalachians... Strong heating is expected today across parts of Georgia into the Carolinas, where temperatures in the upper 80s F and dewpoints near 70F are forecast. This will lead to widespread moderate CAPE values and the development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Vertical shear is weak, but a few weakly organized thunderstorm clusters may reach severe intensity with gusty/damaging winds. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... With full insolation, moderate destabilization will steadily develop this afternoon near/south of a southward-moving front. While ingredients are severe-storm supportive, the extent of deep convective development may be limited by modest overall forcing/low-level convergence, but at least isolated damaging winds/hail will be possible where storms do develop. Favorable deep-layer shear (40+ kt effective) is conditionally supportive of well-organized storms including supercells. In a relative sense, severe storm development currently appears most probable across eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and potentially toward the Great NYC Metro vicinity/far southeast New York. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered areas of severe thunderstorm development are possible today into tonight, accompanied by potential for severe hail and wind across parts of the Great Plains, the Upper Midwest, the Texas coastal plain into the Lower Mississippi Valley, as well as a portion of the northern Mid-Atlantic. ...20z Update... The primary change for this update is to remove risk probabilities across parts of eastern TX and western LA in the wake of a gradually strengthening convective band/MCS where conditions have stabilized. Low-end risk probabilities have been expanded slightly across south TX to account for the southeastward propagation of a convective cluster developing on the outflow of the prior MCS. Recent RAP mesoanalysis estimates/forecast soundings suggest the downstream convective environment may be supportive of organized convection through early evening. Elsewhere, the forecast largely remains on track with few adjustments required. Convection developing within the upslope flow regime across the central High Plains should increase in coverage and intensity as ascent associated with a weak mid-level perturbation (currently over northern UT) overspreads the region. Across the Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, temperatures have warmed into the mid-80s, which should minimize inhibition based on forecast soundings; however, satellite imagery continues to show meager vertical development of cumulus along the frontal zone, which limits confidence in convective initiation and the overall severe threat. See the previous discussion (below) and MCD #1260 for additional details. ..Moore.. 06/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025/ ...North-central Plains including Nebraska/South Dakota... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and associated speed max will progress eastward over the northern High Plains, from southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming toward the Dakotas. Related forcing for ascent and a moderate belt of mid-level westerlies will overlie a wavy frontal zone across southern South Dakota and western Nebraska. At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected into mid/late afternoon, with moderate buoyancy and 35-45 kt effective shear (especially northern Nebraska northward) supportive of supercells. Large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...South/East Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South... An extensive MCS and prominent outflow remain primary forecast factors today, with outflow now having progressed off the middle/upper Texas coast. An enhanced low/mid-level wind field on the eastern periphery of the convectively augmented upper low will continue to contribute to some supercell/tornado risk within a moist environment, although cloud cover and thermodynamic limitations may persist. Damaging winds may also occur on a sporadic/relatively limited basis regionally. ...Southeast/southern Appalachians... Strong heating is expected today across parts of Georgia into the Carolinas, where temperatures in the upper 80s F and dewpoints near 70F are forecast. This will lead to widespread moderate CAPE values and the development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Vertical shear is weak, but a few weakly organized thunderstorm clusters may reach severe intensity with gusty/damaging winds. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... With full insolation, moderate destabilization will steadily develop this afternoon near/south of a southward-moving front. While ingredients are severe-storm supportive, the extent of deep convective development may be limited by modest overall forcing/low-level convergence, but at least isolated damaging winds/hail will be possible where storms do develop. Favorable deep-layer shear (40+ kt effective) is conditionally supportive of well-organized storms including supercells. In a relative sense, severe storm development currently appears most probable across eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and potentially toward the Great NYC Metro vicinity/far southeast New York. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered areas of severe thunderstorm development are possible today into tonight, accompanied by potential for severe hail and wind across parts of the Great Plains, the Upper Midwest, the Texas coastal plain into the Lower Mississippi Valley, as well as a portion of the northern Mid-Atlantic. ...20z Update... The primary change for this update is to remove risk probabilities across parts of eastern TX and western LA in the wake of a gradually strengthening convective band/MCS where conditions have stabilized. Low-end risk probabilities have been expanded slightly across south TX to account for the southeastward propagation of a convective cluster developing on the outflow of the prior MCS. Recent RAP mesoanalysis estimates/forecast soundings suggest the downstream convective environment may be supportive of organized convection through early evening. Elsewhere, the forecast largely remains on track with few adjustments required. Convection developing within the upslope flow regime across the central High Plains should increase in coverage and intensity as ascent associated with a weak mid-level perturbation (currently over northern UT) overspreads the region. Across the Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, temperatures have warmed into the mid-80s, which should minimize inhibition based on forecast soundings; however, satellite imagery continues to show meager vertical development of cumulus along the frontal zone, which limits confidence in convective initiation and the overall severe threat. See the previous discussion (below) and MCD #1260 for additional details. ..Moore.. 06/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025/ ...North-central Plains including Nebraska/South Dakota... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and associated speed max will progress eastward over the northern High Plains, from southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming toward the Dakotas. Related forcing for ascent and a moderate belt of mid-level westerlies will overlie a wavy frontal zone across southern South Dakota and western Nebraska. At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected into mid/late afternoon, with moderate buoyancy and 35-45 kt effective shear (especially northern Nebraska northward) supportive of supercells. Large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...South/East Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South... An extensive MCS and prominent outflow remain primary forecast factors today, with outflow now having progressed off the middle/upper Texas coast. An enhanced low/mid-level wind field on the eastern periphery of the convectively augmented upper low will continue to contribute to some supercell/tornado risk within a moist environment, although cloud cover and thermodynamic limitations may persist. Damaging winds may also occur on a sporadic/relatively limited basis regionally. ...Southeast/southern Appalachians... Strong heating is expected today across parts of Georgia into the Carolinas, where temperatures in the upper 80s F and dewpoints near 70F are forecast. This will lead to widespread moderate CAPE values and the development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Vertical shear is weak, but a few weakly organized thunderstorm clusters may reach severe intensity with gusty/damaging winds. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... With full insolation, moderate destabilization will steadily develop this afternoon near/south of a southward-moving front. While ingredients are severe-storm supportive, the extent of deep convective development may be limited by modest overall forcing/low-level convergence, but at least isolated damaging winds/hail will be possible where storms do develop. Favorable deep-layer shear (40+ kt effective) is conditionally supportive of well-organized storms including supercells. In a relative sense, severe storm development currently appears most probable across eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and potentially toward the Great NYC Metro vicinity/far southeast New York. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms may occur on Saturday over parts of the central Plains. Isolated to widely scattered storms may occur from southern Montana into the southern High Plains. ...Central/Northern Plains... The highest storm coverage in this area appears to be within eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota and Nebraska given a shortwave perturbation moving through during the afternoon. With around 30-40 kts of effective shear and strong surface heating, scattered storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are possible. A low-level jet will develop during the evening and focus in Nebraska/South Dakota. Some activity may be able to last into the evening. Some guidance develops elevated storms farther east in South Dakota as the low-level jet strengthens. Elevated buoyancy will be large and shear will be sufficient for some storm organization. Though development is conditional, low severe probabilities have been extended into this area given the hail/isolated wind damage threat. ...Central/Southeast Montana... With the upper-level trough generally remaining in the Northwest, the strongest mid-level winds should remain over parts of the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Lingering, sufficient low-level moisture should allow for isolated to widely scattered storms to develop within the higher terrain and spread into central/southeast Montana. Hail and severe gusts are the likely hazards with this activity. ...Southern Plains... There remains some potential for activity from overnight Friday activity to persist into Saturday morning. Guidance varies in the location of where storms may intensify as the surface heats, but the general theme is that a continuation of overnight activity or perhaps development along an outflow boundary is possible. Shear will not be overly strong, particularly with eastward extent, but large MLCAPE in a moist, uncapped environment could support a corridor of damaging wind potential. Low severe probabilities have been extended east to account for this possibility, though uncertainty is still high. ...Mid-South into Mid-Atlantic... Another day of scattered convection is possible in these regions as a low-amplitude, diffuse upper-level trough shifts eastward. Poor lapse rates and weak shear should limit the overall severe threat. Isolated damaging winds are possible, but, again, highlighting an area of greater organization is quite uncertain at this time. ..Wendt.. 06/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms may occur on Saturday over parts of the central Plains. Isolated to widely scattered storms may occur from southern Montana into the southern High Plains. ...Central/Northern Plains... The highest storm coverage in this area appears to be within eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota and Nebraska given a shortwave perturbation moving through during the afternoon. With around 30-40 kts of effective shear and strong surface heating, scattered storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are possible. A low-level jet will develop during the evening and focus in Nebraska/South Dakota. Some activity may be able to last into the evening. Some guidance develops elevated storms farther east in South Dakota as the low-level jet strengthens. Elevated buoyancy will be large and shear will be sufficient for some storm organization. Though development is conditional, low severe probabilities have been extended into this area given the hail/isolated wind damage threat. ...Central/Southeast Montana... With the upper-level trough generally remaining in the Northwest, the strongest mid-level winds should remain over parts of the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Lingering, sufficient low-level moisture should allow for isolated to widely scattered storms to develop within the higher terrain and spread into central/southeast Montana. Hail and severe gusts are the likely hazards with this activity. ...Southern Plains... There remains some potential for activity from overnight Friday activity to persist into Saturday morning. Guidance varies in the location of where storms may intensify as the surface heats, but the general theme is that a continuation of overnight activity or perhaps development along an outflow boundary is possible. Shear will not be overly strong, particularly with eastward extent, but large MLCAPE in a moist, uncapped environment could support a corridor of damaging wind potential. Low severe probabilities have been extended east to account for this possibility, though uncertainty is still high. ...Mid-South into Mid-Atlantic... Another day of scattered convection is possible in these regions as a low-amplitude, diffuse upper-level trough shifts eastward. Poor lapse rates and weak shear should limit the overall severe threat. Isolated damaging winds are possible, but, again, highlighting an area of greater organization is quite uncertain at this time. ..Wendt.. 06/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms may occur on Saturday over parts of the central Plains. Isolated to widely scattered storms may occur from southern Montana into the southern High Plains. ...Central/Northern Plains... The highest storm coverage in this area appears to be within eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota and Nebraska given a shortwave perturbation moving through during the afternoon. With around 30-40 kts of effective shear and strong surface heating, scattered storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are possible. A low-level jet will develop during the evening and focus in Nebraska/South Dakota. Some activity may be able to last into the evening. Some guidance develops elevated storms farther east in South Dakota as the low-level jet strengthens. Elevated buoyancy will be large and shear will be sufficient for some storm organization. Though development is conditional, low severe probabilities have been extended into this area given the hail/isolated wind damage threat. ...Central/Southeast Montana... With the upper-level trough generally remaining in the Northwest, the strongest mid-level winds should remain over parts of the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Lingering, sufficient low-level moisture should allow for isolated to widely scattered storms to develop within the higher terrain and spread into central/southeast Montana. Hail and severe gusts are the likely hazards with this activity. ...Southern Plains... There remains some potential for activity from overnight Friday activity to persist into Saturday morning. Guidance varies in the location of where storms may intensify as the surface heats, but the general theme is that a continuation of overnight activity or perhaps development along an outflow boundary is possible. Shear will not be overly strong, particularly with eastward extent, but large MLCAPE in a moist, uncapped environment could support a corridor of damaging wind potential. Low severe probabilities have been extended east to account for this possibility, though uncertainty is still high. ...Mid-South into Mid-Atlantic... Another day of scattered convection is possible in these regions as a low-amplitude, diffuse upper-level trough shifts eastward. Poor lapse rates and weak shear should limit the overall severe threat. Isolated damaging winds are possible, but, again, highlighting an area of greater organization is quite uncertain at this time. ..Wendt.. 06/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms may occur on Saturday over parts of the central Plains. Isolated to widely scattered storms may occur from southern Montana into the southern High Plains. ...Central/Northern Plains... The highest storm coverage in this area appears to be within eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota and Nebraska given a shortwave perturbation moving through during the afternoon. With around 30-40 kts of effective shear and strong surface heating, scattered storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are possible. A low-level jet will develop during the evening and focus in Nebraska/South Dakota. Some activity may be able to last into the evening. Some guidance develops elevated storms farther east in South Dakota as the low-level jet strengthens. Elevated buoyancy will be large and shear will be sufficient for some storm organization. Though development is conditional, low severe probabilities have been extended into this area given the hail/isolated wind damage threat. ...Central/Southeast Montana... With the upper-level trough generally remaining in the Northwest, the strongest mid-level winds should remain over parts of the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Lingering, sufficient low-level moisture should allow for isolated to widely scattered storms to develop within the higher terrain and spread into central/southeast Montana. Hail and severe gusts are the likely hazards with this activity. ...Southern Plains... There remains some potential for activity from overnight Friday activity to persist into Saturday morning. Guidance varies in the location of where storms may intensify as the surface heats, but the general theme is that a continuation of overnight activity or perhaps development along an outflow boundary is possible. Shear will not be overly strong, particularly with eastward extent, but large MLCAPE in a moist, uncapped environment could support a corridor of damaging wind potential. Low severe probabilities have been extended east to account for this possibility, though uncertainty is still high. ...Mid-South into Mid-Atlantic... Another day of scattered convection is possible in these regions as a low-amplitude, diffuse upper-level trough shifts eastward. Poor lapse rates and weak shear should limit the overall severe threat. Isolated damaging winds are possible, but, again, highlighting an area of greater organization is quite uncertain at this time. ..Wendt.. 06/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms may occur on Saturday over parts of the central Plains. Isolated to widely scattered storms may occur from southern Montana into the southern High Plains. ...Central/Northern Plains... The highest storm coverage in this area appears to be within eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota and Nebraska given a shortwave perturbation moving through during the afternoon. With around 30-40 kts of effective shear and strong surface heating, scattered storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are possible. A low-level jet will develop during the evening and focus in Nebraska/South Dakota. Some activity may be able to last into the evening. Some guidance develops elevated storms farther east in South Dakota as the low-level jet strengthens. Elevated buoyancy will be large and shear will be sufficient for some storm organization. Though development is conditional, low severe probabilities have been extended into this area given the hail/isolated wind damage threat. ...Central/Southeast Montana... With the upper-level trough generally remaining in the Northwest, the strongest mid-level winds should remain over parts of the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Lingering, sufficient low-level moisture should allow for isolated to widely scattered storms to develop within the higher terrain and spread into central/southeast Montana. Hail and severe gusts are the likely hazards with this activity. ...Southern Plains... There remains some potential for activity from overnight Friday activity to persist into Saturday morning. Guidance varies in the location of where storms may intensify as the surface heats, but the general theme is that a continuation of overnight activity or perhaps development along an outflow boundary is possible. Shear will not be overly strong, particularly with eastward extent, but large MLCAPE in a moist, uncapped environment could support a corridor of damaging wind potential. Low severe probabilities have been extended east to account for this possibility, though uncertainty is still high. ...Mid-South into Mid-Atlantic... Another day of scattered convection is possible in these regions as a low-amplitude, diffuse upper-level trough shifts eastward. Poor lapse rates and weak shear should limit the overall severe threat. Isolated damaging winds are possible, but, again, highlighting an area of greater organization is quite uncertain at this time. ..Wendt.. 06/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms may occur on Saturday over parts of the central Plains. Isolated to widely scattered storms may occur from southern Montana into the southern High Plains. ...Central/Northern Plains... The highest storm coverage in this area appears to be within eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota and Nebraska given a shortwave perturbation moving through during the afternoon. With around 30-40 kts of effective shear and strong surface heating, scattered storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are possible. A low-level jet will develop during the evening and focus in Nebraska/South Dakota. Some activity may be able to last into the evening. Some guidance develops elevated storms farther east in South Dakota as the low-level jet strengthens. Elevated buoyancy will be large and shear will be sufficient for some storm organization. Though development is conditional, low severe probabilities have been extended into this area given the hail/isolated wind damage threat. ...Central/Southeast Montana... With the upper-level trough generally remaining in the Northwest, the strongest mid-level winds should remain over parts of the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Lingering, sufficient low-level moisture should allow for isolated to widely scattered storms to develop within the higher terrain and spread into central/southeast Montana. Hail and severe gusts are the likely hazards with this activity. ...Southern Plains... There remains some potential for activity from overnight Friday activity to persist into Saturday morning. Guidance varies in the location of where storms may intensify as the surface heats, but the general theme is that a continuation of overnight activity or perhaps development along an outflow boundary is possible. Shear will not be overly strong, particularly with eastward extent, but large MLCAPE in a moist, uncapped environment could support a corridor of damaging wind potential. Low severe probabilities have been extended east to account for this possibility, though uncertainty is still high. ...Mid-South into Mid-Atlantic... Another day of scattered convection is possible in these regions as a low-amplitude, diffuse upper-level trough shifts eastward. Poor lapse rates and weak shear should limit the overall severe threat. Isolated damaging winds are possible, but, again, highlighting an area of greater organization is quite uncertain at this time. ..Wendt.. 06/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms may occur on Saturday over parts of the central Plains. Isolated to widely scattered storms may occur from southern Montana into the southern High Plains. ...Central/Northern Plains... The highest storm coverage in this area appears to be within eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota and Nebraska given a shortwave perturbation moving through during the afternoon. With around 30-40 kts of effective shear and strong surface heating, scattered storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are possible. A low-level jet will develop during the evening and focus in Nebraska/South Dakota. Some activity may be able to last into the evening. Some guidance develops elevated storms farther east in South Dakota as the low-level jet strengthens. Elevated buoyancy will be large and shear will be sufficient for some storm organization. Though development is conditional, low severe probabilities have been extended into this area given the hail/isolated wind damage threat. ...Central/Southeast Montana... With the upper-level trough generally remaining in the Northwest, the strongest mid-level winds should remain over parts of the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Lingering, sufficient low-level moisture should allow for isolated to widely scattered storms to develop within the higher terrain and spread into central/southeast Montana. Hail and severe gusts are the likely hazards with this activity. ...Southern Plains... There remains some potential for activity from overnight Friday activity to persist into Saturday morning. Guidance varies in the location of where storms may intensify as the surface heats, but the general theme is that a continuation of overnight activity or perhaps development along an outflow boundary is possible. Shear will not be overly strong, particularly with eastward extent, but large MLCAPE in a moist, uncapped environment could support a corridor of damaging wind potential. Low severe probabilities have been extended east to account for this possibility, though uncertainty is still high. ...Mid-South into Mid-Atlantic... Another day of scattered convection is possible in these regions as a low-amplitude, diffuse upper-level trough shifts eastward. Poor lapse rates and weak shear should limit the overall severe threat. Isolated damaging winds are possible, but, again, highlighting an area of greater organization is quite uncertain at this time. ..Wendt.. 06/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms may occur on Saturday over parts of the central Plains. Isolated to widely scattered storms may occur from southern Montana into the southern High Plains. ...Central/Northern Plains... The highest storm coverage in this area appears to be within eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota and Nebraska given a shortwave perturbation moving through during the afternoon. With around 30-40 kts of effective shear and strong surface heating, scattered storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are possible. A low-level jet will develop during the evening and focus in Nebraska/South Dakota. Some activity may be able to last into the evening. Some guidance develops elevated storms farther east in South Dakota as the low-level jet strengthens. Elevated buoyancy will be large and shear will be sufficient for some storm organization. Though development is conditional, low severe probabilities have been extended into this area given the hail/isolated wind damage threat. ...Central/Southeast Montana... With the upper-level trough generally remaining in the Northwest, the strongest mid-level winds should remain over parts of the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Lingering, sufficient low-level moisture should allow for isolated to widely scattered storms to develop within the higher terrain and spread into central/southeast Montana. Hail and severe gusts are the likely hazards with this activity. ...Southern Plains... There remains some potential for activity from overnight Friday activity to persist into Saturday morning. Guidance varies in the location of where storms may intensify as the surface heats, but the general theme is that a continuation of overnight activity or perhaps development along an outflow boundary is possible. Shear will not be overly strong, particularly with eastward extent, but large MLCAPE in a moist, uncapped environment could support a corridor of damaging wind potential. Low severe probabilities have been extended east to account for this possibility, though uncertainty is still high. ...Mid-South into Mid-Atlantic... Another day of scattered convection is possible in these regions as a low-amplitude, diffuse upper-level trough shifts eastward. Poor lapse rates and weak shear should limit the overall severe threat. Isolated damaging winds are possible, but, again, highlighting an area of greater organization is quite uncertain at this time. ..Wendt.. 06/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms may occur on Saturday over parts of the central Plains. Isolated to widely scattered storms may occur from southern Montana into the southern High Plains. ...Central/Northern Plains... The highest storm coverage in this area appears to be within eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota and Nebraska given a shortwave perturbation moving through during the afternoon. With around 30-40 kts of effective shear and strong surface heating, scattered storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are possible. A low-level jet will develop during the evening and focus in Nebraska/South Dakota. Some activity may be able to last into the evening. Some guidance develops elevated storms farther east in South Dakota as the low-level jet strengthens. Elevated buoyancy will be large and shear will be sufficient for some storm organization. Though development is conditional, low severe probabilities have been extended into this area given the hail/isolated wind damage threat. ...Central/Southeast Montana... With the upper-level trough generally remaining in the Northwest, the strongest mid-level winds should remain over parts of the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Lingering, sufficient low-level moisture should allow for isolated to widely scattered storms to develop within the higher terrain and spread into central/southeast Montana. Hail and severe gusts are the likely hazards with this activity. ...Southern Plains... There remains some potential for activity from overnight Friday activity to persist into Saturday morning. Guidance varies in the location of where storms may intensify as the surface heats, but the general theme is that a continuation of overnight activity or perhaps development along an outflow boundary is possible. Shear will not be overly strong, particularly with eastward extent, but large MLCAPE in a moist, uncapped environment could support a corridor of damaging wind potential. Low severe probabilities have been extended east to account for this possibility, though uncertainty is still high. ...Mid-South into Mid-Atlantic... Another day of scattered convection is possible in these regions as a low-amplitude, diffuse upper-level trough shifts eastward. Poor lapse rates and weak shear should limit the overall severe threat. Isolated damaging winds are possible, but, again, highlighting an area of greater organization is quite uncertain at this time. ..Wendt.. 06/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms may occur on Saturday over parts of the central Plains. Isolated to widely scattered storms may occur from southern Montana into the southern High Plains. ...Central/Northern Plains... The highest storm coverage in this area appears to be within eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota and Nebraska given a shortwave perturbation moving through during the afternoon. With around 30-40 kts of effective shear and strong surface heating, scattered storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are possible. A low-level jet will develop during the evening and focus in Nebraska/South Dakota. Some activity may be able to last into the evening. Some guidance develops elevated storms farther east in South Dakota as the low-level jet strengthens. Elevated buoyancy will be large and shear will be sufficient for some storm organization. Though development is conditional, low severe probabilities have been extended into this area given the hail/isolated wind damage threat. ...Central/Southeast Montana... With the upper-level trough generally remaining in the Northwest, the strongest mid-level winds should remain over parts of the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Lingering, sufficient low-level moisture should allow for isolated to widely scattered storms to develop within the higher terrain and spread into central/southeast Montana. Hail and severe gusts are the likely hazards with this activity. ...Southern Plains... There remains some potential for activity from overnight Friday activity to persist into Saturday morning. Guidance varies in the location of where storms may intensify as the surface heats, but the general theme is that a continuation of overnight activity or perhaps development along an outflow boundary is possible. Shear will not be overly strong, particularly with eastward extent, but large MLCAPE in a moist, uncapped environment could support a corridor of damaging wind potential. Low severe probabilities have been extended east to account for this possibility, though uncertainty is still high. ...Mid-South into Mid-Atlantic... Another day of scattered convection is possible in these regions as a low-amplitude, diffuse upper-level trough shifts eastward. Poor lapse rates and weak shear should limit the overall severe threat. Isolated damaging winds are possible, but, again, highlighting an area of greater organization is quite uncertain at this time. ..Wendt.. 06/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms may occur on Saturday over parts of the central Plains. Isolated to widely scattered storms may occur from southern Montana into the southern High Plains. ...Central/Northern Plains... The highest storm coverage in this area appears to be within eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota and Nebraska given a shortwave perturbation moving through during the afternoon. With around 30-40 kts of effective shear and strong surface heating, scattered storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are possible. A low-level jet will develop during the evening and focus in Nebraska/South Dakota. Some activity may be able to last into the evening. Some guidance develops elevated storms farther east in South Dakota as the low-level jet strengthens. Elevated buoyancy will be large and shear will be sufficient for some storm organization. Though development is conditional, low severe probabilities have been extended into this area given the hail/isolated wind damage threat. ...Central/Southeast Montana... With the upper-level trough generally remaining in the Northwest, the strongest mid-level winds should remain over parts of the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Lingering, sufficient low-level moisture should allow for isolated to widely scattered storms to develop within the higher terrain and spread into central/southeast Montana. Hail and severe gusts are the likely hazards with this activity. ...Southern Plains... There remains some potential for activity from overnight Friday activity to persist into Saturday morning. Guidance varies in the location of where storms may intensify as the surface heats, but the general theme is that a continuation of overnight activity or perhaps development along an outflow boundary is possible. Shear will not be overly strong, particularly with eastward extent, but large MLCAPE in a moist, uncapped environment could support a corridor of damaging wind potential. Low severe probabilities have been extended east to account for this possibility, though uncertainty is still high. ...Mid-South into Mid-Atlantic... Another day of scattered convection is possible in these regions as a low-amplitude, diffuse upper-level trough shifts eastward. Poor lapse rates and weak shear should limit the overall severe threat. Isolated damaging winds are possible, but, again, highlighting an area of greater organization is quite uncertain at this time. ..Wendt.. 06/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms may occur on Saturday over parts of the central Plains. Isolated to widely scattered storms may occur from southern Montana into the southern High Plains. ...Central/Northern Plains... The highest storm coverage in this area appears to be within eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota and Nebraska given a shortwave perturbation moving through during the afternoon. With around 30-40 kts of effective shear and strong surface heating, scattered storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are possible. A low-level jet will develop during the evening and focus in Nebraska/South Dakota. Some activity may be able to last into the evening. Some guidance develops elevated storms farther east in South Dakota as the low-level jet strengthens. Elevated buoyancy will be large and shear will be sufficient for some storm organization. Though development is conditional, low severe probabilities have been extended into this area given the hail/isolated wind damage threat. ...Central/Southeast Montana... With the upper-level trough generally remaining in the Northwest, the strongest mid-level winds should remain over parts of the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Lingering, sufficient low-level moisture should allow for isolated to widely scattered storms to develop within the higher terrain and spread into central/southeast Montana. Hail and severe gusts are the likely hazards with this activity. ...Southern Plains... There remains some potential for activity from overnight Friday activity to persist into Saturday morning. Guidance varies in the location of where storms may intensify as the surface heats, but the general theme is that a continuation of overnight activity or perhaps development along an outflow boundary is possible. Shear will not be overly strong, particularly with eastward extent, but large MLCAPE in a moist, uncapped environment could support a corridor of damaging wind potential. Low severe probabilities have been extended east to account for this possibility, though uncertainty is still high. ...Mid-South into Mid-Atlantic... Another day of scattered convection is possible in these regions as a low-amplitude, diffuse upper-level trough shifts eastward. Poor lapse rates and weak shear should limit the overall severe threat. Isolated damaging winds are possible, but, again, highlighting an area of greater organization is quite uncertain at this time. ..Wendt.. 06/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms may occur on Saturday over parts of the central Plains. Isolated to widely scattered storms may occur from southern Montana into the southern High Plains. ...Central/Northern Plains... The highest storm coverage in this area appears to be within eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota and Nebraska given a shortwave perturbation moving through during the afternoon. With around 30-40 kts of effective shear and strong surface heating, scattered storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are possible. A low-level jet will develop during the evening and focus in Nebraska/South Dakota. Some activity may be able to last into the evening. Some guidance develops elevated storms farther east in South Dakota as the low-level jet strengthens. Elevated buoyancy will be large and shear will be sufficient for some storm organization. Though development is conditional, low severe probabilities have been extended into this area given the hail/isolated wind damage threat. ...Central/Southeast Montana... With the upper-level trough generally remaining in the Northwest, the strongest mid-level winds should remain over parts of the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Lingering, sufficient low-level moisture should allow for isolated to widely scattered storms to develop within the higher terrain and spread into central/southeast Montana. Hail and severe gusts are the likely hazards with this activity. ...Southern Plains... There remains some potential for activity from overnight Friday activity to persist into Saturday morning. Guidance varies in the location of where storms may intensify as the surface heats, but the general theme is that a continuation of overnight activity or perhaps development along an outflow boundary is possible. Shear will not be overly strong, particularly with eastward extent, but large MLCAPE in a moist, uncapped environment could support a corridor of damaging wind potential. Low severe probabilities have been extended east to account for this possibility, though uncertainty is still high. ...Mid-South into Mid-Atlantic... Another day of scattered convection is possible in these regions as a low-amplitude, diffuse upper-level trough shifts eastward. Poor lapse rates and weak shear should limit the overall severe threat. Isolated damaging winds are possible, but, again, highlighting an area of greater organization is quite uncertain at this time. ..Wendt.. 06/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms may occur on Saturday over parts of the central Plains. Isolated to widely scattered storms may occur from southern Montana into the southern High Plains. ...Central/Northern Plains... The highest storm coverage in this area appears to be within eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota and Nebraska given a shortwave perturbation moving through during the afternoon. With around 30-40 kts of effective shear and strong surface heating, scattered storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are possible. A low-level jet will develop during the evening and focus in Nebraska/South Dakota. Some activity may be able to last into the evening. Some guidance develops elevated storms farther east in South Dakota as the low-level jet strengthens. Elevated buoyancy will be large and shear will be sufficient for some storm organization. Though development is conditional, low severe probabilities have been extended into this area given the hail/isolated wind damage threat. ...Central/Southeast Montana... With the upper-level trough generally remaining in the Northwest, the strongest mid-level winds should remain over parts of the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Lingering, sufficient low-level moisture should allow for isolated to widely scattered storms to develop within the higher terrain and spread into central/southeast Montana. Hail and severe gusts are the likely hazards with this activity. ...Southern Plains... There remains some potential for activity from overnight Friday activity to persist into Saturday morning. Guidance varies in the location of where storms may intensify as the surface heats, but the general theme is that a continuation of overnight activity or perhaps development along an outflow boundary is possible. Shear will not be overly strong, particularly with eastward extent, but large MLCAPE in a moist, uncapped environment could support a corridor of damaging wind potential. Low severe probabilities have been extended east to account for this possibility, though uncertainty is still high. ...Mid-South into Mid-Atlantic... Another day of scattered convection is possible in these regions as a low-amplitude, diffuse upper-level trough shifts eastward. Poor lapse rates and weak shear should limit the overall severe threat. Isolated damaging winds are possible, but, again, highlighting an area of greater organization is quite uncertain at this time. ..Wendt.. 06/12/2025 Read more