Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... A mid-level ridge across the Great Plains is forecast to become less amplified on Monday, as multiple shortwave troughs move through westerly flow across the north-central states. A moist airmass is forecast across much of the central and northern Plains, where moderate to strong instability appears likely to develop by afternoon. Along the northern edge of the stronger instability, scattered convective initiation is expected. The instability, combined with moderate deep-layer shear, should support a severe threat. Large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible during the afternoon and evening. The mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward into the Missouri Valley on Tuesday, as a trough moves into the Rockies. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast from the central Plains into the Missouri Valley, where moderate to strong instability appears likely to develop by afternoon. Large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching trough is forecast to move into the central Plains Tuesday evening. As a result, a large area of thunderstorms is forecast to develop from northern Kansas into much of Nebraska. Model forecasts suggest that moderate deep-layer shear will be in place, which would support a large hail and wind-damage threat. The mid-level trough is forecast to move across the Great Plains on Wednesday. A moist airmass is forecast to remain in place to the east of the trough across the lower Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. Ahead of the trough, moderate instability is forecast by afternoon. Thunderstorm development is expected with this unstable airmass from eastern Kansas northeastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. A severe threat will be possible. The greatest potential for severe storms could be from northern Missouri into southern Wisconsin, along and near the axis of a low-level jet. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... From Thursday into Friday, the mid-level trough, and an associated cold front, is forecast to move from the mid Mississippi Valley to the Eastern Seaboard. A moist and unstable airmass should be in place ahead of the trough. Thunderstorm development will be possible along parts of the front, and across the warm sector. Although a severe threat may develop as instability increases during the day, the timing of the front remains questionable and predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... A mid-level ridge across the Great Plains is forecast to become less amplified on Monday, as multiple shortwave troughs move through westerly flow across the north-central states. A moist airmass is forecast across much of the central and northern Plains, where moderate to strong instability appears likely to develop by afternoon. Along the northern edge of the stronger instability, scattered convective initiation is expected. The instability, combined with moderate deep-layer shear, should support a severe threat. Large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible during the afternoon and evening. The mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward into the Missouri Valley on Tuesday, as a trough moves into the Rockies. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast from the central Plains into the Missouri Valley, where moderate to strong instability appears likely to develop by afternoon. Large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching trough is forecast to move into the central Plains Tuesday evening. As a result, a large area of thunderstorms is forecast to develop from northern Kansas into much of Nebraska. Model forecasts suggest that moderate deep-layer shear will be in place, which would support a large hail and wind-damage threat. The mid-level trough is forecast to move across the Great Plains on Wednesday. A moist airmass is forecast to remain in place to the east of the trough across the lower Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. Ahead of the trough, moderate instability is forecast by afternoon. Thunderstorm development is expected with this unstable airmass from eastern Kansas northeastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. A severe threat will be possible. The greatest potential for severe storms could be from northern Missouri into southern Wisconsin, along and near the axis of a low-level jet. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... From Thursday into Friday, the mid-level trough, and an associated cold front, is forecast to move from the mid Mississippi Valley to the Eastern Seaboard. A moist and unstable airmass should be in place ahead of the trough. Thunderstorm development will be possible along parts of the front, and across the warm sector. Although a severe threat may develop as instability increases during the day, the timing of the front remains questionable and predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... A mid-level ridge across the Great Plains is forecast to become less amplified on Monday, as multiple shortwave troughs move through westerly flow across the north-central states. A moist airmass is forecast across much of the central and northern Plains, where moderate to strong instability appears likely to develop by afternoon. Along the northern edge of the stronger instability, scattered convective initiation is expected. The instability, combined with moderate deep-layer shear, should support a severe threat. Large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible during the afternoon and evening. The mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward into the Missouri Valley on Tuesday, as a trough moves into the Rockies. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast from the central Plains into the Missouri Valley, where moderate to strong instability appears likely to develop by afternoon. Large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching trough is forecast to move into the central Plains Tuesday evening. As a result, a large area of thunderstorms is forecast to develop from northern Kansas into much of Nebraska. Model forecasts suggest that moderate deep-layer shear will be in place, which would support a large hail and wind-damage threat. The mid-level trough is forecast to move across the Great Plains on Wednesday. A moist airmass is forecast to remain in place to the east of the trough across the lower Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. Ahead of the trough, moderate instability is forecast by afternoon. Thunderstorm development is expected with this unstable airmass from eastern Kansas northeastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. A severe threat will be possible. The greatest potential for severe storms could be from northern Missouri into southern Wisconsin, along and near the axis of a low-level jet. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... From Thursday into Friday, the mid-level trough, and an associated cold front, is forecast to move from the mid Mississippi Valley to the Eastern Seaboard. A moist and unstable airmass should be in place ahead of the trough. Thunderstorm development will be possible along parts of the front, and across the warm sector. Although a severe threat may develop as instability increases during the day, the timing of the front remains questionable and predictability is low. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA...THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, capable of isolated large hail and severe wind gusts, are expected on Sunday from parts of southeast Montana southeastward into northern Nebraska. Elsewhere in the Great Plains, marginally severe storms will be possible. A few severe wind gusts may also occur from parts of North Carolina into southern Virginia. ...Northern Plains/Northern Nebraska... A mid-level ridge is forecast to remain over the central and northern High Plains on Sunday, as a subtle shortwave trough rides up and over the ridge. At the surface, a low is forecast to develop over Wyoming, with upslope flow remaining over much of the northern Plains. A moist airmass will be located from eastern Montana into the Dakotas and Nebraska, where moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm during the day, convective initiation is expected in the higher terrain of the northern High Plains, with additional storms possible further east into parts of the Dakotas. NAM forecast soundings late Sunday afternoon near the instability axis have MLCAPE peaking near 4000 J/kg with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 30 to 40 knot range. This environment should support supercell development, with large hail and wind damage being possible. A tornado could also occur. The severe threat will likely persist into the evening, as low-level flow gradually increases across the region. ...Southern Nebraska/Kansas/Oklahoma/North Texas... A moist airmass will remain in place across much of the southern and central Plains on Sunday. Surface dewpoints from the upper 60s to the mid 70s F will contribute to the development of strong instability across parts of this airmass by afternoon. In spite of a lack of large-scale ascent, isolated convective initiation will be possible as surface temperatures peak in the afternoon. The most likely location for storm development would be along or near any residual outflow boundary. Forecast MLCAPE in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range, along with steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and moderate deep-layer shear would support an isolated severe threat. Hail and marginally severe wind gusts would be the primary threats. ...North Carolina/Southern Virginia... A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the southern and central Appalachians on Sunday. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass is forecast over parts of the Carolinas and Virginia. As surface temperatures warm in the late morning and early afternoon, convective initiation is expected in the higher terrain of the southern and central Appalachians. As this convection moves eastward into the lower elevations, thunderstorms are expected to form. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to remain relatively weak, moderate instability and steep low-level lapse rates could be sufficient for isolated severe wind gusts. ..Broyles.. 06/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA...THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, capable of isolated large hail and severe wind gusts, are expected on Sunday from parts of southeast Montana southeastward into northern Nebraska. Elsewhere in the Great Plains, marginally severe storms will be possible. A few severe wind gusts may also occur from parts of North Carolina into southern Virginia. ...Northern Plains/Northern Nebraska... A mid-level ridge is forecast to remain over the central and northern High Plains on Sunday, as a subtle shortwave trough rides up and over the ridge. At the surface, a low is forecast to develop over Wyoming, with upslope flow remaining over much of the northern Plains. A moist airmass will be located from eastern Montana into the Dakotas and Nebraska, where moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm during the day, convective initiation is expected in the higher terrain of the northern High Plains, with additional storms possible further east into parts of the Dakotas. NAM forecast soundings late Sunday afternoon near the instability axis have MLCAPE peaking near 4000 J/kg with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 30 to 40 knot range. This environment should support supercell development, with large hail and wind damage being possible. A tornado could also occur. The severe threat will likely persist into the evening, as low-level flow gradually increases across the region. ...Southern Nebraska/Kansas/Oklahoma/North Texas... A moist airmass will remain in place across much of the southern and central Plains on Sunday. Surface dewpoints from the upper 60s to the mid 70s F will contribute to the development of strong instability across parts of this airmass by afternoon. In spite of a lack of large-scale ascent, isolated convective initiation will be possible as surface temperatures peak in the afternoon. The most likely location for storm development would be along or near any residual outflow boundary. Forecast MLCAPE in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range, along with steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and moderate deep-layer shear would support an isolated severe threat. Hail and marginally severe wind gusts would be the primary threats. ...North Carolina/Southern Virginia... A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the southern and central Appalachians on Sunday. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass is forecast over parts of the Carolinas and Virginia. As surface temperatures warm in the late morning and early afternoon, convective initiation is expected in the higher terrain of the southern and central Appalachians. As this convection moves eastward into the lower elevations, thunderstorms are expected to form. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to remain relatively weak, moderate instability and steep low-level lapse rates could be sufficient for isolated severe wind gusts. ..Broyles.. 06/13/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... A modestly strong mid-level jet is expected to be situated over the northwestern CONUS during the day on Saturday, and strong surface heating in this area is expected to mix down some of that momentum from aloft. Given gusts of 20-25 mph expected along with 10-15% RH and dry fuels, have introduced an Elevated area in northwest Nevada. Additionally, modestly dry fuels across portions of the Columbia River Valley in Washington and Oregon along with 15-20% RH along with gusts of 20-25 mph warrant the introduction of an Elevated area here, as well. ..Supinie.. 06/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... A modestly strong mid-level jet is expected to be situated over the northwestern CONUS during the day on Saturday, and strong surface heating in this area is expected to mix down some of that momentum from aloft. Given gusts of 20-25 mph expected along with 10-15% RH and dry fuels, have introduced an Elevated area in northwest Nevada. Additionally, modestly dry fuels across portions of the Columbia River Valley in Washington and Oregon along with 15-20% RH along with gusts of 20-25 mph warrant the introduction of an Elevated area here, as well. ..Supinie.. 06/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN NEVADA... ...Synopsis... A belt of southwesterly flow aloft with an embedded shortwave trough will be situated over the northwestern CONUS during the day. This will provide the focus for fire weather concerns, with the strong flow aloft mixing down due to strong surface heating, producing gusts of 25-30 mph across parts of northwestern Nevada. This will occur in the presence of 10-15% RH for several hours. Fuels in this area are fairly dry, so have maintained the Critical area across parts of northwestern Nevada. Similarly, modestly dry fuels along with gusty winds and 15-20% RH will result in Elevated fire conditions across portions of the Columbia Valley in Washington and Oregon. ..Supinie.. 06/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN NEVADA... ...Synopsis... A belt of southwesterly flow aloft with an embedded shortwave trough will be situated over the northwestern CONUS during the day. This will provide the focus for fire weather concerns, with the strong flow aloft mixing down due to strong surface heating, producing gusts of 25-30 mph across parts of northwestern Nevada. This will occur in the presence of 10-15% RH for several hours. Fuels in this area are fairly dry, so have maintained the Critical area across parts of northwestern Nevada. Similarly, modestly dry fuels along with gusty winds and 15-20% RH will result in Elevated fire conditions across portions of the Columbia Valley in Washington and Oregon. ..Supinie.. 06/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the central and northern High Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. Marginally severe storms will also be possible in parts of southern and central Plains. ...Central and Northern High Plains... A mid-level ridge will move eastward across the north-central U.S. on Saturday. In the wake of the ridge, a subtle shortwave trough will move into the central and northern High Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be present across much of the Great Plains. Upslope flow will be in place over the central and northern High Plains, where a pocket of moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop Saturday afternoon. As surface temperatures warm during the day, convection will first initiate in the higher terrain from east-central Montana southeastward to the Black Hills. From this convection, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and move eastward into the lower elevations of the central and northern High Plains. An impressive thermodynamic environment is forecast to be in place by Saturday afternoon from northeast Wyoming into western Nebraska, where model forecasts suggest MLCAPE could peak around 4000 J/kg. Near the instability maximum, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 8 C/km. In spite of this, forecast soundings in the central and northern High Plains have a capping inversion in place during the afternoon. This should keep the initial convective development confined to the higher terrain of southeast Montana, northeast Wyoming and southwestern South Dakota. Forecasts soundings late Saturday afternoon in this area mostly have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, mainly due to mid-level speed shear. The shear, combined with the moderate to strong instability, will likely support a severe threat. Supercells should be capable of isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. The threat is expected to persist into the mid to late evening, as low-level flow increases. ...Southern and Central Plains... A mid-level ridge will move eastward across the Great Plains on Saturday. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located across much of the southern and central Plains. As surface temperatures warm during the day, moderate instability is forecast to develop throughout much of this airmass. Due to the presence of the ridge, large-scale ascent will remain weak in most areas. In spite of this, isolated thunderstorms may still develop in areas where low-level convergence and surface heating are maximized, and further west in the higher terrain of the central and southern High Plains. Forecast soundings late Saturday afternoon across the southern and central Plains generally have large surface-temperature dewpoint spreads with steep lapse rates. This environment will also have sufficient deep-layer shear for isolated severe storms. Hail and marginally severe wind gusts are expected to be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 06/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the central and northern High Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. Marginally severe storms will also be possible in parts of southern and central Plains. ...Central and Northern High Plains... A mid-level ridge will move eastward across the north-central U.S. on Saturday. In the wake of the ridge, a subtle shortwave trough will move into the central and northern High Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be present across much of the Great Plains. Upslope flow will be in place over the central and northern High Plains, where a pocket of moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop Saturday afternoon. As surface temperatures warm during the day, convection will first initiate in the higher terrain from east-central Montana southeastward to the Black Hills. From this convection, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and move eastward into the lower elevations of the central and northern High Plains. An impressive thermodynamic environment is forecast to be in place by Saturday afternoon from northeast Wyoming into western Nebraska, where model forecasts suggest MLCAPE could peak around 4000 J/kg. Near the instability maximum, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 8 C/km. In spite of this, forecast soundings in the central and northern High Plains have a capping inversion in place during the afternoon. This should keep the initial convective development confined to the higher terrain of southeast Montana, northeast Wyoming and southwestern South Dakota. Forecasts soundings late Saturday afternoon in this area mostly have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, mainly due to mid-level speed shear. The shear, combined with the moderate to strong instability, will likely support a severe threat. Supercells should be capable of isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. The threat is expected to persist into the mid to late evening, as low-level flow increases. ...Southern and Central Plains... A mid-level ridge will move eastward across the Great Plains on Saturday. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located across much of the southern and central Plains. As surface temperatures warm during the day, moderate instability is forecast to develop throughout much of this airmass. Due to the presence of the ridge, large-scale ascent will remain weak in most areas. In spite of this, isolated thunderstorms may still develop in areas where low-level convergence and surface heating are maximized, and further west in the higher terrain of the central and southern High Plains. Forecast soundings late Saturday afternoon across the southern and central Plains generally have large surface-temperature dewpoint spreads with steep lapse rates. This environment will also have sufficient deep-layer shear for isolated severe storms. Hail and marginally severe wind gusts are expected to be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 06/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across much of Montana, extending south across the central High Plains. The greatest concentration of severe is expected across Montana where very large hail, and severe winds are anticipated. ...Montana, south into the central High Plains... 500mb speed max (50+kt) is forecast to translate across southern OR into the northern Rockies by late afternoon as a short-wave trough advances inland. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow is expected to be maintained across much of MT east of the higher terrain, and moist boundary-layer conditions will be drawn deep into the mountains prior to convective initiation. Early this morning, lower-mid 50s surface dew points were observed as far west as Helena and Polson. Latest model guidance suggests CINH will be negligible by 18z across the higher terrain, and convection should readily develop within an increasingly sheared and modestly buoyant environment. NAM sounding for C18 at 18z exhibits 65kt 0-6km bulk shear, with 8 C/km lapse rates, and 1300 J/kg SBCAPE. Hodographs favor very large hail with these conditions and 2+ inch stones are certainly possible with the more robust supercells. Scattered supercells should develop by early afternoon then spread east and mature as they advance toward central/southern MT. Some tornado threat can be expected with these storms as ample low-level shear should be present. With time multiple thunderstorm clusters could emerge and severe winds may become more common as this activity propagates toward southern MT. Farther south across the High Plains of eastern WY into western KS, more isolated activity is expected within a weaker flow regime. 00z model guidance suggests a surface boundary will be draped across this region, extending southeast into central OK. This boundary will likely serve as the focus for diurnally enhanced convection. Forecast soundings suggest strong SBCAPE will be noted across the central High Plains into central OK where values should exceed 3000-4000 J/kg at lower latitudes. Somewhat stronger northwesterly flow will extend across eastern OK into western AR and this may result in some organizational potential along the backside of the MS Valley trough. Have extended severe probs across OK into western AR to account for this possibility. ..Darrow/Supinie.. 06/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across much of Montana, extending south across the central High Plains. The greatest concentration of severe is expected across Montana where very large hail, and severe winds are anticipated. ...Montana, south into the central High Plains... 500mb speed max (50+kt) is forecast to translate across southern OR into the northern Rockies by late afternoon as a short-wave trough advances inland. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow is expected to be maintained across much of MT east of the higher terrain, and moist boundary-layer conditions will be drawn deep into the mountains prior to convective initiation. Early this morning, lower-mid 50s surface dew points were observed as far west as Helena and Polson. Latest model guidance suggests CINH will be negligible by 18z across the higher terrain, and convection should readily develop within an increasingly sheared and modestly buoyant environment. NAM sounding for C18 at 18z exhibits 65kt 0-6km bulk shear, with 8 C/km lapse rates, and 1300 J/kg SBCAPE. Hodographs favor very large hail with these conditions and 2+ inch stones are certainly possible with the more robust supercells. Scattered supercells should develop by early afternoon then spread east and mature as they advance toward central/southern MT. Some tornado threat can be expected with these storms as ample low-level shear should be present. With time multiple thunderstorm clusters could emerge and severe winds may become more common as this activity propagates toward southern MT. Farther south across the High Plains of eastern WY into western KS, more isolated activity is expected within a weaker flow regime. 00z model guidance suggests a surface boundary will be draped across this region, extending southeast into central OK. This boundary will likely serve as the focus for diurnally enhanced convection. Forecast soundings suggest strong SBCAPE will be noted across the central High Plains into central OK where values should exceed 3000-4000 J/kg at lower latitudes. Somewhat stronger northwesterly flow will extend across eastern OK into western AR and this may result in some organizational potential along the backside of the MS Valley trough. Have extended severe probs across OK into western AR to account for this possibility. ..Darrow/Supinie.. 06/13/2025 Read more

MD 1268 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MN
Mesoscale Discussion 1268 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Areas affected...Parts of south-central MN Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 130050Z - 130215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A threat for localized severe/damaging wind and marginal hail remains possible this evening. DISCUSSION...An elevated supercell has evolved into a small linear segment across parts of south-central MN. Despite its clearly elevated nature, this storm produced a 75 kt gust in Hutchinson, MN, along with reports of substantial wind damage. The longevity of the severe threat with this small line segment is uncertain, given decreasing MUCAPE downstream. However, given its current severe intensity, some threat could reach at least western portions of the Twin Cities area. Another small elevated supercell is ongoing upstream across southwest MN. Whether or not this cell undergoes a similar evolution as the lead cell is highly uncertain, but some threat for isolated hail and damaging wind could accompany this storm as well as it moves east-southeastward this evening. ..Dean/Smith.. 06/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX... LAT...LON 45339547 45269377 45189309 44649324 44379342 44459476 44649530 45019558 45339547 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms, a few severe, will spread across portions of the central and northern Plains this evening. Hail and wind are the primary risks. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude short-wave trough is ejecting across the northern High Plains of eastern MT/northeast WY early this evening. Scattered strong-severe thunderstorms have developed along the southern influence of this feature, particularly from southeast WY into north central NE, along a synoptic boundary draped across this region. While LLJ is not forecast to be particularly strong overnight, some increase is possible into this boundary over the next few hours and this could encourage additional storms as well as support ongoing activity. Latest radar data suggests large hail is occurring with the strongest updrafts, perhaps as many as half a dozen storms along the frontal zone. As heights are suppressed across the northern Plains tonight, low-level warm advection will likely support at least one or more MCS-type clusters to evolve and propagate toward the upper MS Valley by daybreak. ..Darrow.. 06/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms, a few severe, will spread across portions of the central and northern Plains this evening. Hail and wind are the primary risks. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude short-wave trough is ejecting across the northern High Plains of eastern MT/northeast WY early this evening. Scattered strong-severe thunderstorms have developed along the southern influence of this feature, particularly from southeast WY into north central NE, along a synoptic boundary draped across this region. While LLJ is not forecast to be particularly strong overnight, some increase is possible into this boundary over the next few hours and this could encourage additional storms as well as support ongoing activity. Latest radar data suggests large hail is occurring with the strongest updrafts, perhaps as many as half a dozen storms along the frontal zone. As heights are suppressed across the northern Plains tonight, low-level warm advection will likely support at least one or more MCS-type clusters to evolve and propagate toward the upper MS Valley by daybreak. ..Darrow.. 06/13/2025 Read more

MD 1267 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 410... FOR SOUTHEAST WY/NORTHEAST CO INTO WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NE AND SOUTH-CENTRAL SD
Mesoscale Discussion 1267 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0608 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Areas affected...Southeast WY/northeast CO into western/north-central NE and south-central SD Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 410... Valid 122308Z - 130045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 410 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for primarily large hail and severe gusts will continue this evening. DISCUSSION...Two clusters of potentially severe storms are ongoing as of 23 UTC across WW 410. One is a backbuilding supercell cluster near the NE/SD border north of Valentine, NE, in the vicinity of a quasi-stationary surface front. Given the orientation of the instability gradient, this cluster may attempt to propagate southward with time, with continued backbuilding possible along its western flank. Moderate to strong buoyancy (MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg near/south of the front) and sufficient deep-layer shear will continue to support potential for hail in the 1.5-2.5 inch range, along with localized severe gusts. Also, while low-level flow is not particularly strong, a tornado cannot be ruled out, given the presence of supercell structures in the vicinity of the surface boundary. Farther southwest, more loosely organized convection is ongoing near the NE/WY border. Moderate to strong buoyancy will continue to support an isolated hail threat in the short term. Consolidating outflows may eventually result in an outflow-driven cluster with a threat of severe gusts spreading eastward across the NE Panhandle later this evening. ..Dean.. 06/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 41970508 42640468 43000225 43400117 43889995 44119924 43929871 43329896 42479959 41630008 40270183 40360383 40550415 40780437 41210483 41970508 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 1265 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 1265 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0514 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Areas affected...portions of southeast Colorado and eastern New Mexico Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 122214Z - 130015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Occasional severe gusts and large hail may occur this afternoon across portions of southeast Colorado and eastern New Mexico. A watch is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...Convection has developed in weak upslope surface flow along the lee of the higher terrain across portions of central Colorado and New Mexico. Strong mixing on the High Plains has resulted in inverted-V thermodynamic profiles with approximately 1000 J/kg MLCAPE per mesoanalysis and short-term RAP forecast profiles. Generally, low-level and deep-layer shear are marginal for supercells, particularly across northeast New Mexico and southeast Colorado, and some transient mid-level mesocyclones are apparent on WSR-88D radar. Some clustering of storms may occur with time given strong cold pools, and this may result in a risk for severe gusts. Additionally, given the weak low-level shear and low freezing levels, some marginally severe hail may be possible. Due to the expected sparse coverage of severe weather, a watch is not anticipated. ..Supinie/Smith.. 06/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MAF...PUB...BOU...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 37570523 38560477 38590381 38110350 36160348 34310369 33160418 32870473 32990530 33860555 35790556 37570523 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0410 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 410 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..06/12/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...LBF...CYS...FSD...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 410 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC075-087-095-115-123-122240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WELD NEC005-007-013-017-029-031-033-045-049-069-075-091-101-103-105- 117-123-135-157-161-165-171-122240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BANNER BOX BUTTE BROWN CHASE CHERRY CHEYENNE DAWES DEUEL GARDEN GRANT HOOKER KEITH KEYA PAHA KIMBALL MCPHERSON MORRILL PERKINS SCOTTS BLUFF SHERIDAN SIOUX THOMAS SDC003-015-017-023-053-073-085-095-121-123-122240- Read more

WW 410 SEVERE TSTM CO NE SD WY 122055Z - 130500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 410 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 255 PM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Colorado Western and Northern Nebraska Southern South Dakota Southeast Wyoming * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 255 PM until 1100 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to continue to develop regionally mainly near a southwest/northeast-oriented front, with an unstable air mass and moderately strong wind profiles supporting supercells and hail/wind potential, and possibly even a brief tornado. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles east southeast of Chamberlain SD to 75 miles south southwest of Torrington WY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Guyer Read more