Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, capable of large hail and severe wind gusts, are expected on Sunday from parts of southeast Montana southeastward into northern Nebraska. Additional strong to severe storms are possible in the Plains. Isolated damaging winds remain possible in portions of North Carolina and Virginia. ...Montana/Dakotas/Nebraska... The persistent trough in the Northwest will allow moderate mid-level winds to continue over the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Model guidance also suggests a stronger compact shortwave trough will move into eastern Montana during the afternoon. Surface troughing will maintain moisture influx into the area. Strong shear and large buoyancy will support a threat of large hail and severe wind gusts. There is some potential for significant hail with initial supercells and perhaps significant wind with a cluster/MCS that could develop and persist to the east. With preceding days of convection potentially impacting the overall quality of the low-level airmass, confidence is too low to highlight an area at present. Trends in guidance will be monitored. ...Kansas/southern Plains/Arkansas... As with previous days, the magnitude and location of the severe risk will depend on where convection from the previous day exists. There is at least modest agreement within model guidance that convection within eastern Kansas could intensify into parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas. Modest flow enhancement on the western flank of the broad trough would promote marginal storm organization. Furthermore, a theta-e gradient could serve as a focus for propagation. With 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE present, some threat for wind damage would be present. ...North Carolina/Virginia... With the upper-level trough becoming more diffuse with time, forcing for ascent will largely be driven by smaller scale perturbations within the broad cyclonic flow. It appears possible that an MCV could approach parts of the Mid-Atlantic during Sunday afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate mid-level lapse rates will remain weak and cloud cover will hinder surface heating for some areas. Should these conditions align, stronger storms could produce isolated wind damage given modest organization promoted by the MCV. ..Wendt.. 06/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, capable of large hail and severe wind gusts, are expected on Sunday from parts of southeast Montana southeastward into northern Nebraska. Additional strong to severe storms are possible in the Plains. Isolated damaging winds remain possible in portions of North Carolina and Virginia. ...Montana/Dakotas/Nebraska... The persistent trough in the Northwest will allow moderate mid-level winds to continue over the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Model guidance also suggests a stronger compact shortwave trough will move into eastern Montana during the afternoon. Surface troughing will maintain moisture influx into the area. Strong shear and large buoyancy will support a threat of large hail and severe wind gusts. There is some potential for significant hail with initial supercells and perhaps significant wind with a cluster/MCS that could develop and persist to the east. With preceding days of convection potentially impacting the overall quality of the low-level airmass, confidence is too low to highlight an area at present. Trends in guidance will be monitored. ...Kansas/southern Plains/Arkansas... As with previous days, the magnitude and location of the severe risk will depend on where convection from the previous day exists. There is at least modest agreement within model guidance that convection within eastern Kansas could intensify into parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas. Modest flow enhancement on the western flank of the broad trough would promote marginal storm organization. Furthermore, a theta-e gradient could serve as a focus for propagation. With 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE present, some threat for wind damage would be present. ...North Carolina/Virginia... With the upper-level trough becoming more diffuse with time, forcing for ascent will largely be driven by smaller scale perturbations within the broad cyclonic flow. It appears possible that an MCV could approach parts of the Mid-Atlantic during Sunday afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate mid-level lapse rates will remain weak and cloud cover will hinder surface heating for some areas. Should these conditions align, stronger storms could produce isolated wind damage given modest organization promoted by the MCV. ..Wendt.. 06/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, capable of large hail and severe wind gusts, are expected on Sunday from parts of southeast Montana southeastward into northern Nebraska. Additional strong to severe storms are possible in the Plains. Isolated damaging winds remain possible in portions of North Carolina and Virginia. ...Montana/Dakotas/Nebraska... The persistent trough in the Northwest will allow moderate mid-level winds to continue over the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Model guidance also suggests a stronger compact shortwave trough will move into eastern Montana during the afternoon. Surface troughing will maintain moisture influx into the area. Strong shear and large buoyancy will support a threat of large hail and severe wind gusts. There is some potential for significant hail with initial supercells and perhaps significant wind with a cluster/MCS that could develop and persist to the east. With preceding days of convection potentially impacting the overall quality of the low-level airmass, confidence is too low to highlight an area at present. Trends in guidance will be monitored. ...Kansas/southern Plains/Arkansas... As with previous days, the magnitude and location of the severe risk will depend on where convection from the previous day exists. There is at least modest agreement within model guidance that convection within eastern Kansas could intensify into parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas. Modest flow enhancement on the western flank of the broad trough would promote marginal storm organization. Furthermore, a theta-e gradient could serve as a focus for propagation. With 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE present, some threat for wind damage would be present. ...North Carolina/Virginia... With the upper-level trough becoming more diffuse with time, forcing for ascent will largely be driven by smaller scale perturbations within the broad cyclonic flow. It appears possible that an MCV could approach parts of the Mid-Atlantic during Sunday afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate mid-level lapse rates will remain weak and cloud cover will hinder surface heating for some areas. Should these conditions align, stronger storms could produce isolated wind damage given modest organization promoted by the MCV. ..Wendt.. 06/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, capable of large hail and severe wind gusts, are expected on Sunday from parts of southeast Montana southeastward into northern Nebraska. Additional strong to severe storms are possible in the Plains. Isolated damaging winds remain possible in portions of North Carolina and Virginia. ...Montana/Dakotas/Nebraska... The persistent trough in the Northwest will allow moderate mid-level winds to continue over the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Model guidance also suggests a stronger compact shortwave trough will move into eastern Montana during the afternoon. Surface troughing will maintain moisture influx into the area. Strong shear and large buoyancy will support a threat of large hail and severe wind gusts. There is some potential for significant hail with initial supercells and perhaps significant wind with a cluster/MCS that could develop and persist to the east. With preceding days of convection potentially impacting the overall quality of the low-level airmass, confidence is too low to highlight an area at present. Trends in guidance will be monitored. ...Kansas/southern Plains/Arkansas... As with previous days, the magnitude and location of the severe risk will depend on where convection from the previous day exists. There is at least modest agreement within model guidance that convection within eastern Kansas could intensify into parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas. Modest flow enhancement on the western flank of the broad trough would promote marginal storm organization. Furthermore, a theta-e gradient could serve as a focus for propagation. With 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE present, some threat for wind damage would be present. ...North Carolina/Virginia... With the upper-level trough becoming more diffuse with time, forcing for ascent will largely be driven by smaller scale perturbations within the broad cyclonic flow. It appears possible that an MCV could approach parts of the Mid-Atlantic during Sunday afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate mid-level lapse rates will remain weak and cloud cover will hinder surface heating for some areas. Should these conditions align, stronger storms could produce isolated wind damage given modest organization promoted by the MCV. ..Wendt.. 06/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, capable of large hail and severe wind gusts, are expected on Sunday from parts of southeast Montana southeastward into northern Nebraska. Additional strong to severe storms are possible in the Plains. Isolated damaging winds remain possible in portions of North Carolina and Virginia. ...Montana/Dakotas/Nebraska... The persistent trough in the Northwest will allow moderate mid-level winds to continue over the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Model guidance also suggests a stronger compact shortwave trough will move into eastern Montana during the afternoon. Surface troughing will maintain moisture influx into the area. Strong shear and large buoyancy will support a threat of large hail and severe wind gusts. There is some potential for significant hail with initial supercells and perhaps significant wind with a cluster/MCS that could develop and persist to the east. With preceding days of convection potentially impacting the overall quality of the low-level airmass, confidence is too low to highlight an area at present. Trends in guidance will be monitored. ...Kansas/southern Plains/Arkansas... As with previous days, the magnitude and location of the severe risk will depend on where convection from the previous day exists. There is at least modest agreement within model guidance that convection within eastern Kansas could intensify into parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas. Modest flow enhancement on the western flank of the broad trough would promote marginal storm organization. Furthermore, a theta-e gradient could serve as a focus for propagation. With 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE present, some threat for wind damage would be present. ...North Carolina/Virginia... With the upper-level trough becoming more diffuse with time, forcing for ascent will largely be driven by smaller scale perturbations within the broad cyclonic flow. It appears possible that an MCV could approach parts of the Mid-Atlantic during Sunday afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate mid-level lapse rates will remain weak and cloud cover will hinder surface heating for some areas. Should these conditions align, stronger storms could produce isolated wind damage given modest organization promoted by the MCV. ..Wendt.. 06/13/2025 Read more

WW 0411 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0411 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0411 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0411 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Jun 13 18:43:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made to the Elevated highlights in northwestern NV -- based on the latest high-resolution guidance. ..Weinman.. 06/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0212 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... A modestly strong mid-level jet is expected to be situated over the northwestern CONUS during the day on Saturday, and strong surface heating in this area is expected to mix down some of that momentum from aloft. Given gusts of 20-25 mph expected along with 10-15% RH and dry fuels, have introduced an Elevated area in northwest Nevada. Additionally, modestly dry fuels across portions of the Columbia River Valley in Washington and Oregon along with 15-20% RH along with gusts of 20-25 mph warrant the introduction of an Elevated area here, as well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made to the Elevated highlights in northwestern NV -- based on the latest high-resolution guidance. ..Weinman.. 06/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0212 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... A modestly strong mid-level jet is expected to be situated over the northwestern CONUS during the day on Saturday, and strong surface heating in this area is expected to mix down some of that momentum from aloft. Given gusts of 20-25 mph expected along with 10-15% RH and dry fuels, have introduced an Elevated area in northwest Nevada. Additionally, modestly dry fuels across portions of the Columbia River Valley in Washington and Oregon along with 15-20% RH along with gusts of 20-25 mph warrant the introduction of an Elevated area here, as well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made to the Elevated highlights in northwestern NV -- based on the latest high-resolution guidance. ..Weinman.. 06/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0212 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... A modestly strong mid-level jet is expected to be situated over the northwestern CONUS during the day on Saturday, and strong surface heating in this area is expected to mix down some of that momentum from aloft. Given gusts of 20-25 mph expected along with 10-15% RH and dry fuels, have introduced an Elevated area in northwest Nevada. Additionally, modestly dry fuels across portions of the Columbia River Valley in Washington and Oregon along with 15-20% RH along with gusts of 20-25 mph warrant the introduction of an Elevated area here, as well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made to the Elevated highlights in northwestern NV -- based on the latest high-resolution guidance. ..Weinman.. 06/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0212 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... A modestly strong mid-level jet is expected to be situated over the northwestern CONUS during the day on Saturday, and strong surface heating in this area is expected to mix down some of that momentum from aloft. Given gusts of 20-25 mph expected along with 10-15% RH and dry fuels, have introduced an Elevated area in northwest Nevada. Additionally, modestly dry fuels across portions of the Columbia River Valley in Washington and Oregon along with 15-20% RH along with gusts of 20-25 mph warrant the introduction of an Elevated area here, as well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made to the Elevated highlights in northwestern NV -- based on the latest high-resolution guidance. ..Weinman.. 06/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0212 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... A modestly strong mid-level jet is expected to be situated over the northwestern CONUS during the day on Saturday, and strong surface heating in this area is expected to mix down some of that momentum from aloft. Given gusts of 20-25 mph expected along with 10-15% RH and dry fuels, have introduced an Elevated area in northwest Nevada. Additionally, modestly dry fuels across portions of the Columbia River Valley in Washington and Oregon along with 15-20% RH along with gusts of 20-25 mph warrant the introduction of an Elevated area here, as well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made to the Elevated highlights in northwestern NV -- based on the latest high-resolution guidance. ..Weinman.. 06/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0212 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... A modestly strong mid-level jet is expected to be situated over the northwestern CONUS during the day on Saturday, and strong surface heating in this area is expected to mix down some of that momentum from aloft. Given gusts of 20-25 mph expected along with 10-15% RH and dry fuels, have introduced an Elevated area in northwest Nevada. Additionally, modestly dry fuels across portions of the Columbia River Valley in Washington and Oregon along with 15-20% RH along with gusts of 20-25 mph warrant the introduction of an Elevated area here, as well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made to the Elevated highlights in northwestern NV -- based on the latest high-resolution guidance. ..Weinman.. 06/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0212 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... A modestly strong mid-level jet is expected to be situated over the northwestern CONUS during the day on Saturday, and strong surface heating in this area is expected to mix down some of that momentum from aloft. Given gusts of 20-25 mph expected along with 10-15% RH and dry fuels, have introduced an Elevated area in northwest Nevada. Additionally, modestly dry fuels across portions of the Columbia River Valley in Washington and Oregon along with 15-20% RH along with gusts of 20-25 mph warrant the introduction of an Elevated area here, as well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made to the Elevated highlights in northwestern NV -- based on the latest high-resolution guidance. ..Weinman.. 06/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0212 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... A modestly strong mid-level jet is expected to be situated over the northwestern CONUS during the day on Saturday, and strong surface heating in this area is expected to mix down some of that momentum from aloft. Given gusts of 20-25 mph expected along with 10-15% RH and dry fuels, have introduced an Elevated area in northwest Nevada. Additionally, modestly dry fuels across portions of the Columbia River Valley in Washington and Oregon along with 15-20% RH along with gusts of 20-25 mph warrant the introduction of an Elevated area here, as well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made to the Elevated highlights in northwestern NV -- based on the latest high-resolution guidance. ..Weinman.. 06/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0212 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... A modestly strong mid-level jet is expected to be situated over the northwestern CONUS during the day on Saturday, and strong surface heating in this area is expected to mix down some of that momentum from aloft. Given gusts of 20-25 mph expected along with 10-15% RH and dry fuels, have introduced an Elevated area in northwest Nevada. Additionally, modestly dry fuels across portions of the Columbia River Valley in Washington and Oregon along with 15-20% RH along with gusts of 20-25 mph warrant the introduction of an Elevated area here, as well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made to the Elevated highlights in northwestern NV -- based on the latest high-resolution guidance. ..Weinman.. 06/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0212 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... A modestly strong mid-level jet is expected to be situated over the northwestern CONUS during the day on Saturday, and strong surface heating in this area is expected to mix down some of that momentum from aloft. Given gusts of 20-25 mph expected along with 10-15% RH and dry fuels, have introduced an Elevated area in northwest Nevada. Additionally, modestly dry fuels across portions of the Columbia River Valley in Washington and Oregon along with 15-20% RH along with gusts of 20-25 mph warrant the introduction of an Elevated area here, as well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made to the Elevated highlights in northwestern NV -- based on the latest high-resolution guidance. ..Weinman.. 06/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0212 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... A modestly strong mid-level jet is expected to be situated over the northwestern CONUS during the day on Saturday, and strong surface heating in this area is expected to mix down some of that momentum from aloft. Given gusts of 20-25 mph expected along with 10-15% RH and dry fuels, have introduced an Elevated area in northwest Nevada. Additionally, modestly dry fuels across portions of the Columbia River Valley in Washington and Oregon along with 15-20% RH along with gusts of 20-25 mph warrant the introduction of an Elevated area here, as well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made to the Elevated highlights in northwestern NV -- based on the latest high-resolution guidance. ..Weinman.. 06/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0212 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... A modestly strong mid-level jet is expected to be situated over the northwestern CONUS during the day on Saturday, and strong surface heating in this area is expected to mix down some of that momentum from aloft. Given gusts of 20-25 mph expected along with 10-15% RH and dry fuels, have introduced an Elevated area in northwest Nevada. Additionally, modestly dry fuels across portions of the Columbia River Valley in Washington and Oregon along with 15-20% RH along with gusts of 20-25 mph warrant the introduction of an Elevated area here, as well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more