Severe Storms

MD 1267 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 410... FOR SOUTHEAST WY/NORTHEAST CO INTO WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NE AND SOUTH-CENTRAL SD
Mesoscale Discussion 1267 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0608 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Areas affected...Southeast WY/northeast CO into western/north-central NE and south-central SD Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 410... Valid 122308Z - 130045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 410 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for primarily large hail and severe gusts will continue this evening. DISCUSSION...Two clusters of potentially severe storms are ongoing as of 23 UTC across WW 410. One is a backbuilding supercell cluster near the NE/SD border north of Valentine, NE, in the vicinity of a quasi-stationary surface front. Given the orientation of the instability gradient, this cluster may attempt to propagate southward with time, with continued backbuilding possible along its western flank. Moderate to strong buoyancy (MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg near/south of the front) and sufficient deep-layer shear will continue to support potential for hail in the 1.5-2.5 inch range, along with localized severe gusts. Also, while low-level flow is not particularly strong, a tornado cannot be ruled out, given the presence of supercell structures in the vicinity of the surface boundary. Farther southwest, more loosely organized convection is ongoing near the NE/WY border. Moderate to strong buoyancy will continue to support an isolated hail threat in the short term. Consolidating outflows may eventually result in an outflow-driven cluster with a threat of severe gusts spreading eastward across the NE Panhandle later this evening. ..Dean.. 06/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 41970508 42640468 43000225 43400117 43889995 44119924 43929871 43329896 42479959 41630008 40270183 40360383 40550415 40780437 41210483 41970508 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 1265 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 1265 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0514 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Areas affected...portions of southeast Colorado and eastern New Mexico Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 122214Z - 130015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Occasional severe gusts and large hail may occur this afternoon across portions of southeast Colorado and eastern New Mexico. A watch is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...Convection has developed in weak upslope surface flow along the lee of the higher terrain across portions of central Colorado and New Mexico. Strong mixing on the High Plains has resulted in inverted-V thermodynamic profiles with approximately 1000 J/kg MLCAPE per mesoanalysis and short-term RAP forecast profiles. Generally, low-level and deep-layer shear are marginal for supercells, particularly across northeast New Mexico and southeast Colorado, and some transient mid-level mesocyclones are apparent on WSR-88D radar. Some clustering of storms may occur with time given strong cold pools, and this may result in a risk for severe gusts. Additionally, given the weak low-level shear and low freezing levels, some marginally severe hail may be possible. Due to the expected sparse coverage of severe weather, a watch is not anticipated. ..Supinie/Smith.. 06/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MAF...PUB...BOU...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 37570523 38560477 38590381 38110350 36160348 34310369 33160418 32870473 32990530 33860555 35790556 37570523 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1266 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN MN INTO FAR NORTHERN IA
Mesoscale Discussion 1266 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0517 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Areas affected...Parts of extreme southern MN into far northern IA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 122217Z - 122345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to locally severe storms are possible into this evening. DISCUSSION...Isolated storms have developed in the vicinity of a surface front across far southern MN. Frontal convergence and weak low-level warm advection may continue to support development of an additional strong storm or two near the front into this evening. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg near/south of the front combined with effective shear of 30-35 kt could support marginal supercell potential with a threat for isolated hail and damaging wind, and possibly a brief tornado if any supercell can persist in the vicinity of the surface boundary. ..Dean/Smith.. 06/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... LAT...LON 44029536 44009358 43839286 43619285 43259321 43129425 43189522 43259545 43429556 43529559 43599558 43899556 44029536 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 1264 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW JERSEY
Mesoscale Discussion 1264 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Areas affected...central/eastern Pennsylvania...portions of northern New Jersey Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 122057Z - 122300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Conditional risk for severe hail and wind possible this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development is possible across portions of central PA this afternoon near the southward moving cold front. Visible satellite shows deepening cumulus across the area, with a few echos now on radar, as MLCIN has eroded over the last few hours. MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg is in place with deep layer shear around 40 kts. Should thunderstorm development occur along the front, a supercell or two could be possible with potential for damaging wind and hail. This threat will be monitored for watch potential. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 06/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP... LAT...LON 41467754 41707641 41607493 41127363 40597364 40047399 40547679 40937776 41467754 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1262 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHERN NE...SOUTHERN SD
Mesoscale Discussion 1262 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Areas affected...Northern NE...Southern SD Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 122019Z - 122215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging gusts are possible across northern NE and southern SD this afternoon and evening. DISCUSSION...Convective initiation is underway along a modest frontal boundary that extends from east-central SD through the NE Panhandle to a low over southeast WY. Despite lingering mid-level warm air, strong diurnal heating has largely eroded any convective inhibition, and low-level convergence along the boundary has fostered deepening cumulus (and at least one storm capable of lightning). Expectation is for thunderstorm coverage to increase within a narrow corridor along this boundary. Wind profiles, which are characterized by low-level south-southeasterlies and mid/upper-level westerlies, support the potential for supercells initially capable of large hail. The thermodynamic profiles become more conducive for strong outflow with western extent, and there is some potential for outflow-dominant storms to progress southward (or even southwestward) into more of north-central NE. Overall severe coverage is expected to be high enough to merit watch issuance. ..Mosier/Guyer.. 06/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS... LAT...LON 42580293 43720169 44359949 44609767 43579769 41820093 41690248 42580293 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 1261 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST WY...NE PANHANDLE...NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL CO
Mesoscale Discussion 1261 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Areas affected...South-Central/Southeast WY...NE Panhandle...Northeast/East-Central CO Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 122004Z - 122200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to evolve into one or more convective lines capable of damaging gusts over the next several hours. Some isolated hail is possible as well. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage continues to increase across the higher terrain of south-central WY and north-central CO, supported by large-scale ascent attendant to an approaching shortwave trough. Persisting westerly flow aloft should result in these storms eventually moving off the terrain into the High Plains, where strong heating has resulted in a deeply mixed and modest buoyant airmass. Expectation is for storms to evolve into one or more outflow-dominant convective lines over the next few hours, with an associated threat for damaging gusts. Some isolated hail is also possible, particularly if storms can maintain a more cellular mode. This appears most likely across southeast WY in the vicinity of a weak surface low. Uncertainty regarding the coverage of severe limits forecast confidence, but convective trends will be monitored closely. ..Mosier/Guyer.. 06/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...RIW... LAT...LON 39590513 40900554 41200709 41670732 42170675 42540599 42840498 42840391 42310311 40220230 39020304 38720453 39590513 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z Strong flow aloft over much of the western CONUS is expected through the forecast period as sub-tropical ridging shifts eastward. This will favor dry surface conditions and increasingly strong wind fields across the Great Basin and lee of the Cascades. Additionally, isolated thunderstorms are possible through this weekend and into next week. Fire-weather conditions are expected to increase through next week. ...Northwest and Great Basin... Westerly mid-level flow will continue over the Northwest and Great Basin this weekend and much of next week. Dry downslope winds are likely D3/Saturday atop drying fuels. With westerly downslope flow of 15-20 mph overlapped with RH below 20%, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely in the lee of the Sierra and through the western Columbia Basin. Some localized threat may persist in the lee of the Sierra and Cascade Gaps D4/Sunday. The strongest winds aloft are likely to coincide with the passage of several stronger embedded shortwaves passing through next week. The most significant of these appears to be D5/Monday. More widespread winds of 20-30 mph with RH below 20% are likely across the western and central Great Basin. However, fuels farther south are less receptive. This casts some uncertainty on how widespread fire-weather concerns will be early next week. Still, enhanced mid-level flow and favorable fire-weather pattern will likely continue through the remainder of the extended forecast period. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Continued troughing over the West will support isolated thunderstorm chances late this weekend and into early next week across the northern Great Basin and Northwest. Weak inland transport of mid-level Pacific moisture should support weak buoyancy with very dry surface conditions. Isolated lightning and a few drier storms are possible, especially D5/Monday and D6/Tuesday. Thereafter, more wetting rainfall appears likely across the Northwest as a cold front approaches. ..Lyons.. 06/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z Strong flow aloft over much of the western CONUS is expected through the forecast period as sub-tropical ridging shifts eastward. This will favor dry surface conditions and increasingly strong wind fields across the Great Basin and lee of the Cascades. Additionally, isolated thunderstorms are possible through this weekend and into next week. Fire-weather conditions are expected to increase through next week. ...Northwest and Great Basin... Westerly mid-level flow will continue over the Northwest and Great Basin this weekend and much of next week. Dry downslope winds are likely D3/Saturday atop drying fuels. With westerly downslope flow of 15-20 mph overlapped with RH below 20%, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely in the lee of the Sierra and through the western Columbia Basin. Some localized threat may persist in the lee of the Sierra and Cascade Gaps D4/Sunday. The strongest winds aloft are likely to coincide with the passage of several stronger embedded shortwaves passing through next week. The most significant of these appears to be D5/Monday. More widespread winds of 20-30 mph with RH below 20% are likely across the western and central Great Basin. However, fuels farther south are less receptive. This casts some uncertainty on how widespread fire-weather concerns will be early next week. Still, enhanced mid-level flow and favorable fire-weather pattern will likely continue through the remainder of the extended forecast period. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Continued troughing over the West will support isolated thunderstorm chances late this weekend and into early next week across the northern Great Basin and Northwest. Weak inland transport of mid-level Pacific moisture should support weak buoyancy with very dry surface conditions. Isolated lightning and a few drier storms are possible, especially D5/Monday and D6/Tuesday. Thereafter, more wetting rainfall appears likely across the Northwest as a cold front approaches. ..Lyons.. 06/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z Strong flow aloft over much of the western CONUS is expected through the forecast period as sub-tropical ridging shifts eastward. This will favor dry surface conditions and increasingly strong wind fields across the Great Basin and lee of the Cascades. Additionally, isolated thunderstorms are possible through this weekend and into next week. Fire-weather conditions are expected to increase through next week. ...Northwest and Great Basin... Westerly mid-level flow will continue over the Northwest and Great Basin this weekend and much of next week. Dry downslope winds are likely D3/Saturday atop drying fuels. With westerly downslope flow of 15-20 mph overlapped with RH below 20%, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely in the lee of the Sierra and through the western Columbia Basin. Some localized threat may persist in the lee of the Sierra and Cascade Gaps D4/Sunday. The strongest winds aloft are likely to coincide with the passage of several stronger embedded shortwaves passing through next week. The most significant of these appears to be D5/Monday. More widespread winds of 20-30 mph with RH below 20% are likely across the western and central Great Basin. However, fuels farther south are less receptive. This casts some uncertainty on how widespread fire-weather concerns will be early next week. Still, enhanced mid-level flow and favorable fire-weather pattern will likely continue through the remainder of the extended forecast period. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Continued troughing over the West will support isolated thunderstorm chances late this weekend and into early next week across the northern Great Basin and Northwest. Weak inland transport of mid-level Pacific moisture should support weak buoyancy with very dry surface conditions. Isolated lightning and a few drier storms are possible, especially D5/Monday and D6/Tuesday. Thereafter, more wetting rainfall appears likely across the Northwest as a cold front approaches. ..Lyons.. 06/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z Strong flow aloft over much of the western CONUS is expected through the forecast period as sub-tropical ridging shifts eastward. This will favor dry surface conditions and increasingly strong wind fields across the Great Basin and lee of the Cascades. Additionally, isolated thunderstorms are possible through this weekend and into next week. Fire-weather conditions are expected to increase through next week. ...Northwest and Great Basin... Westerly mid-level flow will continue over the Northwest and Great Basin this weekend and much of next week. Dry downslope winds are likely D3/Saturday atop drying fuels. With westerly downslope flow of 15-20 mph overlapped with RH below 20%, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely in the lee of the Sierra and through the western Columbia Basin. Some localized threat may persist in the lee of the Sierra and Cascade Gaps D4/Sunday. The strongest winds aloft are likely to coincide with the passage of several stronger embedded shortwaves passing through next week. The most significant of these appears to be D5/Monday. More widespread winds of 20-30 mph with RH below 20% are likely across the western and central Great Basin. However, fuels farther south are less receptive. This casts some uncertainty on how widespread fire-weather concerns will be early next week. Still, enhanced mid-level flow and favorable fire-weather pattern will likely continue through the remainder of the extended forecast period. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Continued troughing over the West will support isolated thunderstorm chances late this weekend and into early next week across the northern Great Basin and Northwest. Weak inland transport of mid-level Pacific moisture should support weak buoyancy with very dry surface conditions. Isolated lightning and a few drier storms are possible, especially D5/Monday and D6/Tuesday. Thereafter, more wetting rainfall appears likely across the Northwest as a cold front approaches. ..Lyons.. 06/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z Strong flow aloft over much of the western CONUS is expected through the forecast period as sub-tropical ridging shifts eastward. This will favor dry surface conditions and increasingly strong wind fields across the Great Basin and lee of the Cascades. Additionally, isolated thunderstorms are possible through this weekend and into next week. Fire-weather conditions are expected to increase through next week. ...Northwest and Great Basin... Westerly mid-level flow will continue over the Northwest and Great Basin this weekend and much of next week. Dry downslope winds are likely D3/Saturday atop drying fuels. With westerly downslope flow of 15-20 mph overlapped with RH below 20%, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely in the lee of the Sierra and through the western Columbia Basin. Some localized threat may persist in the lee of the Sierra and Cascade Gaps D4/Sunday. The strongest winds aloft are likely to coincide with the passage of several stronger embedded shortwaves passing through next week. The most significant of these appears to be D5/Monday. More widespread winds of 20-30 mph with RH below 20% are likely across the western and central Great Basin. However, fuels farther south are less receptive. This casts some uncertainty on how widespread fire-weather concerns will be early next week. Still, enhanced mid-level flow and favorable fire-weather pattern will likely continue through the remainder of the extended forecast period. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Continued troughing over the West will support isolated thunderstorm chances late this weekend and into early next week across the northern Great Basin and Northwest. Weak inland transport of mid-level Pacific moisture should support weak buoyancy with very dry surface conditions. Isolated lightning and a few drier storms are possible, especially D5/Monday and D6/Tuesday. Thereafter, more wetting rainfall appears likely across the Northwest as a cold front approaches. ..Lyons.. 06/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z Strong flow aloft over much of the western CONUS is expected through the forecast period as sub-tropical ridging shifts eastward. This will favor dry surface conditions and increasingly strong wind fields across the Great Basin and lee of the Cascades. Additionally, isolated thunderstorms are possible through this weekend and into next week. Fire-weather conditions are expected to increase through next week. ...Northwest and Great Basin... Westerly mid-level flow will continue over the Northwest and Great Basin this weekend and much of next week. Dry downslope winds are likely D3/Saturday atop drying fuels. With westerly downslope flow of 15-20 mph overlapped with RH below 20%, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely in the lee of the Sierra and through the western Columbia Basin. Some localized threat may persist in the lee of the Sierra and Cascade Gaps D4/Sunday. The strongest winds aloft are likely to coincide with the passage of several stronger embedded shortwaves passing through next week. The most significant of these appears to be D5/Monday. More widespread winds of 20-30 mph with RH below 20% are likely across the western and central Great Basin. However, fuels farther south are less receptive. This casts some uncertainty on how widespread fire-weather concerns will be early next week. Still, enhanced mid-level flow and favorable fire-weather pattern will likely continue through the remainder of the extended forecast period. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Continued troughing over the West will support isolated thunderstorm chances late this weekend and into early next week across the northern Great Basin and Northwest. Weak inland transport of mid-level Pacific moisture should support weak buoyancy with very dry surface conditions. Isolated lightning and a few drier storms are possible, especially D5/Monday and D6/Tuesday. Thereafter, more wetting rainfall appears likely across the Northwest as a cold front approaches. ..Lyons.. 06/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z Strong flow aloft over much of the western CONUS is expected through the forecast period as sub-tropical ridging shifts eastward. This will favor dry surface conditions and increasingly strong wind fields across the Great Basin and lee of the Cascades. Additionally, isolated thunderstorms are possible through this weekend and into next week. Fire-weather conditions are expected to increase through next week. ...Northwest and Great Basin... Westerly mid-level flow will continue over the Northwest and Great Basin this weekend and much of next week. Dry downslope winds are likely D3/Saturday atop drying fuels. With westerly downslope flow of 15-20 mph overlapped with RH below 20%, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely in the lee of the Sierra and through the western Columbia Basin. Some localized threat may persist in the lee of the Sierra and Cascade Gaps D4/Sunday. The strongest winds aloft are likely to coincide with the passage of several stronger embedded shortwaves passing through next week. The most significant of these appears to be D5/Monday. More widespread winds of 20-30 mph with RH below 20% are likely across the western and central Great Basin. However, fuels farther south are less receptive. This casts some uncertainty on how widespread fire-weather concerns will be early next week. Still, enhanced mid-level flow and favorable fire-weather pattern will likely continue through the remainder of the extended forecast period. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Continued troughing over the West will support isolated thunderstorm chances late this weekend and into early next week across the northern Great Basin and Northwest. Weak inland transport of mid-level Pacific moisture should support weak buoyancy with very dry surface conditions. Isolated lightning and a few drier storms are possible, especially D5/Monday and D6/Tuesday. Thereafter, more wetting rainfall appears likely across the Northwest as a cold front approaches. ..Lyons.. 06/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z Strong flow aloft over much of the western CONUS is expected through the forecast period as sub-tropical ridging shifts eastward. This will favor dry surface conditions and increasingly strong wind fields across the Great Basin and lee of the Cascades. Additionally, isolated thunderstorms are possible through this weekend and into next week. Fire-weather conditions are expected to increase through next week. ...Northwest and Great Basin... Westerly mid-level flow will continue over the Northwest and Great Basin this weekend and much of next week. Dry downslope winds are likely D3/Saturday atop drying fuels. With westerly downslope flow of 15-20 mph overlapped with RH below 20%, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely in the lee of the Sierra and through the western Columbia Basin. Some localized threat may persist in the lee of the Sierra and Cascade Gaps D4/Sunday. The strongest winds aloft are likely to coincide with the passage of several stronger embedded shortwaves passing through next week. The most significant of these appears to be D5/Monday. More widespread winds of 20-30 mph with RH below 20% are likely across the western and central Great Basin. However, fuels farther south are less receptive. This casts some uncertainty on how widespread fire-weather concerns will be early next week. Still, enhanced mid-level flow and favorable fire-weather pattern will likely continue through the remainder of the extended forecast period. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Continued troughing over the West will support isolated thunderstorm chances late this weekend and into early next week across the northern Great Basin and Northwest. Weak inland transport of mid-level Pacific moisture should support weak buoyancy with very dry surface conditions. Isolated lightning and a few drier storms are possible, especially D5/Monday and D6/Tuesday. Thereafter, more wetting rainfall appears likely across the Northwest as a cold front approaches. ..Lyons.. 06/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z Strong flow aloft over much of the western CONUS is expected through the forecast period as sub-tropical ridging shifts eastward. This will favor dry surface conditions and increasingly strong wind fields across the Great Basin and lee of the Cascades. Additionally, isolated thunderstorms are possible through this weekend and into next week. Fire-weather conditions are expected to increase through next week. ...Northwest and Great Basin... Westerly mid-level flow will continue over the Northwest and Great Basin this weekend and much of next week. Dry downslope winds are likely D3/Saturday atop drying fuels. With westerly downslope flow of 15-20 mph overlapped with RH below 20%, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely in the lee of the Sierra and through the western Columbia Basin. Some localized threat may persist in the lee of the Sierra and Cascade Gaps D4/Sunday. The strongest winds aloft are likely to coincide with the passage of several stronger embedded shortwaves passing through next week. The most significant of these appears to be D5/Monday. More widespread winds of 20-30 mph with RH below 20% are likely across the western and central Great Basin. However, fuels farther south are less receptive. This casts some uncertainty on how widespread fire-weather concerns will be early next week. Still, enhanced mid-level flow and favorable fire-weather pattern will likely continue through the remainder of the extended forecast period. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Continued troughing over the West will support isolated thunderstorm chances late this weekend and into early next week across the northern Great Basin and Northwest. Weak inland transport of mid-level Pacific moisture should support weak buoyancy with very dry surface conditions. Isolated lightning and a few drier storms are possible, especially D5/Monday and D6/Tuesday. Thereafter, more wetting rainfall appears likely across the Northwest as a cold front approaches. ..Lyons.. 06/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z Strong flow aloft over much of the western CONUS is expected through the forecast period as sub-tropical ridging shifts eastward. This will favor dry surface conditions and increasingly strong wind fields across the Great Basin and lee of the Cascades. Additionally, isolated thunderstorms are possible through this weekend and into next week. Fire-weather conditions are expected to increase through next week. ...Northwest and Great Basin... Westerly mid-level flow will continue over the Northwest and Great Basin this weekend and much of next week. Dry downslope winds are likely D3/Saturday atop drying fuels. With westerly downslope flow of 15-20 mph overlapped with RH below 20%, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely in the lee of the Sierra and through the western Columbia Basin. Some localized threat may persist in the lee of the Sierra and Cascade Gaps D4/Sunday. The strongest winds aloft are likely to coincide with the passage of several stronger embedded shortwaves passing through next week. The most significant of these appears to be D5/Monday. More widespread winds of 20-30 mph with RH below 20% are likely across the western and central Great Basin. However, fuels farther south are less receptive. This casts some uncertainty on how widespread fire-weather concerns will be early next week. Still, enhanced mid-level flow and favorable fire-weather pattern will likely continue through the remainder of the extended forecast period. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Continued troughing over the West will support isolated thunderstorm chances late this weekend and into early next week across the northern Great Basin and Northwest. Weak inland transport of mid-level Pacific moisture should support weak buoyancy with very dry surface conditions. Isolated lightning and a few drier storms are possible, especially D5/Monday and D6/Tuesday. Thereafter, more wetting rainfall appears likely across the Northwest as a cold front approaches. ..Lyons.. 06/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z Strong flow aloft over much of the western CONUS is expected through the forecast period as sub-tropical ridging shifts eastward. This will favor dry surface conditions and increasingly strong wind fields across the Great Basin and lee of the Cascades. Additionally, isolated thunderstorms are possible through this weekend and into next week. Fire-weather conditions are expected to increase through next week. ...Northwest and Great Basin... Westerly mid-level flow will continue over the Northwest and Great Basin this weekend and much of next week. Dry downslope winds are likely D3/Saturday atop drying fuels. With westerly downslope flow of 15-20 mph overlapped with RH below 20%, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely in the lee of the Sierra and through the western Columbia Basin. Some localized threat may persist in the lee of the Sierra and Cascade Gaps D4/Sunday. The strongest winds aloft are likely to coincide with the passage of several stronger embedded shortwaves passing through next week. The most significant of these appears to be D5/Monday. More widespread winds of 20-30 mph with RH below 20% are likely across the western and central Great Basin. However, fuels farther south are less receptive. This casts some uncertainty on how widespread fire-weather concerns will be early next week. Still, enhanced mid-level flow and favorable fire-weather pattern will likely continue through the remainder of the extended forecast period. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Continued troughing over the West will support isolated thunderstorm chances late this weekend and into early next week across the northern Great Basin and Northwest. Weak inland transport of mid-level Pacific moisture should support weak buoyancy with very dry surface conditions. Isolated lightning and a few drier storms are possible, especially D5/Monday and D6/Tuesday. Thereafter, more wetting rainfall appears likely across the Northwest as a cold front approaches. ..Lyons.. 06/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z Strong flow aloft over much of the western CONUS is expected through the forecast period as sub-tropical ridging shifts eastward. This will favor dry surface conditions and increasingly strong wind fields across the Great Basin and lee of the Cascades. Additionally, isolated thunderstorms are possible through this weekend and into next week. Fire-weather conditions are expected to increase through next week. ...Northwest and Great Basin... Westerly mid-level flow will continue over the Northwest and Great Basin this weekend and much of next week. Dry downslope winds are likely D3/Saturday atop drying fuels. With westerly downslope flow of 15-20 mph overlapped with RH below 20%, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely in the lee of the Sierra and through the western Columbia Basin. Some localized threat may persist in the lee of the Sierra and Cascade Gaps D4/Sunday. The strongest winds aloft are likely to coincide with the passage of several stronger embedded shortwaves passing through next week. The most significant of these appears to be D5/Monday. More widespread winds of 20-30 mph with RH below 20% are likely across the western and central Great Basin. However, fuels farther south are less receptive. This casts some uncertainty on how widespread fire-weather concerns will be early next week. Still, enhanced mid-level flow and favorable fire-weather pattern will likely continue through the remainder of the extended forecast period. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Continued troughing over the West will support isolated thunderstorm chances late this weekend and into early next week across the northern Great Basin and Northwest. Weak inland transport of mid-level Pacific moisture should support weak buoyancy with very dry surface conditions. Isolated lightning and a few drier storms are possible, especially D5/Monday and D6/Tuesday. Thereafter, more wetting rainfall appears likely across the Northwest as a cold front approaches. ..Lyons.. 06/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z Strong flow aloft over much of the western CONUS is expected through the forecast period as sub-tropical ridging shifts eastward. This will favor dry surface conditions and increasingly strong wind fields across the Great Basin and lee of the Cascades. Additionally, isolated thunderstorms are possible through this weekend and into next week. Fire-weather conditions are expected to increase through next week. ...Northwest and Great Basin... Westerly mid-level flow will continue over the Northwest and Great Basin this weekend and much of next week. Dry downslope winds are likely D3/Saturday atop drying fuels. With westerly downslope flow of 15-20 mph overlapped with RH below 20%, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely in the lee of the Sierra and through the western Columbia Basin. Some localized threat may persist in the lee of the Sierra and Cascade Gaps D4/Sunday. The strongest winds aloft are likely to coincide with the passage of several stronger embedded shortwaves passing through next week. The most significant of these appears to be D5/Monday. More widespread winds of 20-30 mph with RH below 20% are likely across the western and central Great Basin. However, fuels farther south are less receptive. This casts some uncertainty on how widespread fire-weather concerns will be early next week. Still, enhanced mid-level flow and favorable fire-weather pattern will likely continue through the remainder of the extended forecast period. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Continued troughing over the West will support isolated thunderstorm chances late this weekend and into early next week across the northern Great Basin and Northwest. Weak inland transport of mid-level Pacific moisture should support weak buoyancy with very dry surface conditions. Isolated lightning and a few drier storms are possible, especially D5/Monday and D6/Tuesday. Thereafter, more wetting rainfall appears likely across the Northwest as a cold front approaches. ..Lyons.. 06/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1263 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1263 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Areas affected...portions of deep south Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 122045Z - 122145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Marginal risk for severe wind through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...A broken line of storms continues across deep south Texas, producing occasional gusts 40-50 mph. Outflow has largely moved out ahead of the storms on the western flank. However, portions of the line moving through Corpus Christi appear to be more aligned with the outflow. This will gradually shift offshore in the next hour. Agitated cumulus can be seen on visible in the vicinity of the southward moving outflow. Additional storms my develop along the boundary with potential for gusty winds. Overall, the temporal and limited spatial area of the threat will preclude the need for watch issuance. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 06/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... LAT...LON 26439883 27659911 28169848 28229750 28119716 27759721 27239738 27039739 26789736 26459750 26249769 26169794 26199823 26379882 26439883 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more