Severe Storms

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Jun 10 12:28:01 UTC 2025.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0717 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NM AND SOUTHWEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening across parts of far southeast New Mexico, far West Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Marginally severe storms will be possible from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley, along parts of the Atlantic Coastal states, in northern California/southern Oregon and in parts of the northern Rockies. ...Central/East TX This Morning... Morning satellite/radar loops show a large linear MCS tracking slowly eastward across west-central TX. This line of storms has been primarily non-severe for the past few hours, but with gusty winds along the leading edge. Overnight CAM solutions suggest the MCS will continue to slowly weaken this morning, but a residual MCV may continue to track eastward this afternoon into east TX and central LA. Ample low level moisture and CAPE will support re-development of a few strong storms. The current forecast scenario is for this activity to be weakly organized this afternoon. However, if re-intensification of this MCS can occur, a SLGT risk area may be needed in east TX/central LA in later outlook updates. ...Southeast NM/Southwest TX This Afternoon/Evening... The outflow boundary associated with the aforementioned MCS is sagging southward across southwest TX. Southeasterly low-level winds behind the outflow boundary, coupled with afternoon heating, is expected to draw ample low-level moisture westward by late afternoon. This will result in scattered intense thunderstorms over the Davis mountains and vicinity. Storms will build southeastward through the evening with a risk of very large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Coastal GA/SC... Another remnant MCS is tracking across southern GA. A few hours of daytime heating ahead of this activity could lead to intensification by late morning, with a risk of strong wind gusts. ...Eastern FL Peninsula... Full daytime heating and dewpoints in the 70s will yield strong instability later this afternoon along the northeast and east-central FL peninsula - leading to scattered thunderstorm development. Weak but sufficient deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates could result in locally damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. ...NY/New England... A surface cold front will sweep eastward across NY today. Thunderstorms are expected to form along the front by mid-afternoon over eastern Quebec and develop southward into central NY. A moist and unstable air mass is expected to be in place over the Hudson/Champlain Valleys, aiding a few strong storms capable of gusty winds and hail. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0717 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NM AND SOUTHWEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening across parts of far southeast New Mexico, far West Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Marginally severe storms will be possible from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley, along parts of the Atlantic Coastal states, in northern California/southern Oregon and in parts of the northern Rockies. ...Central/East TX This Morning... Morning satellite/radar loops show a large linear MCS tracking slowly eastward across west-central TX. This line of storms has been primarily non-severe for the past few hours, but with gusty winds along the leading edge. Overnight CAM solutions suggest the MCS will continue to slowly weaken this morning, but a residual MCV may continue to track eastward this afternoon into east TX and central LA. Ample low level moisture and CAPE will support re-development of a few strong storms. The current forecast scenario is for this activity to be weakly organized this afternoon. However, if re-intensification of this MCS can occur, a SLGT risk area may be needed in east TX/central LA in later outlook updates. ...Southeast NM/Southwest TX This Afternoon/Evening... The outflow boundary associated with the aforementioned MCS is sagging southward across southwest TX. Southeasterly low-level winds behind the outflow boundary, coupled with afternoon heating, is expected to draw ample low-level moisture westward by late afternoon. This will result in scattered intense thunderstorms over the Davis mountains and vicinity. Storms will build southeastward through the evening with a risk of very large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Coastal GA/SC... Another remnant MCS is tracking across southern GA. A few hours of daytime heating ahead of this activity could lead to intensification by late morning, with a risk of strong wind gusts. ...Eastern FL Peninsula... Full daytime heating and dewpoints in the 70s will yield strong instability later this afternoon along the northeast and east-central FL peninsula - leading to scattered thunderstorm development. Weak but sufficient deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates could result in locally damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. ...NY/New England... A surface cold front will sweep eastward across NY today. Thunderstorms are expected to form along the front by mid-afternoon over eastern Quebec and develop southward into central NY. A moist and unstable air mass is expected to be in place over the Hudson/Champlain Valleys, aiding a few strong storms capable of gusty winds and hail. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0717 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NM AND SOUTHWEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening across parts of far southeast New Mexico, far West Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Marginally severe storms will be possible from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley, along parts of the Atlantic Coastal states, in northern California/southern Oregon and in parts of the northern Rockies. ...Central/East TX This Morning... Morning satellite/radar loops show a large linear MCS tracking slowly eastward across west-central TX. This line of storms has been primarily non-severe for the past few hours, but with gusty winds along the leading edge. Overnight CAM solutions suggest the MCS will continue to slowly weaken this morning, but a residual MCV may continue to track eastward this afternoon into east TX and central LA. Ample low level moisture and CAPE will support re-development of a few strong storms. The current forecast scenario is for this activity to be weakly organized this afternoon. However, if re-intensification of this MCS can occur, a SLGT risk area may be needed in east TX/central LA in later outlook updates. ...Southeast NM/Southwest TX This Afternoon/Evening... The outflow boundary associated with the aforementioned MCS is sagging southward across southwest TX. Southeasterly low-level winds behind the outflow boundary, coupled with afternoon heating, is expected to draw ample low-level moisture westward by late afternoon. This will result in scattered intense thunderstorms over the Davis mountains and vicinity. Storms will build southeastward through the evening with a risk of very large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Coastal GA/SC... Another remnant MCS is tracking across southern GA. A few hours of daytime heating ahead of this activity could lead to intensification by late morning, with a risk of strong wind gusts. ...Eastern FL Peninsula... Full daytime heating and dewpoints in the 70s will yield strong instability later this afternoon along the northeast and east-central FL peninsula - leading to scattered thunderstorm development. Weak but sufficient deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates could result in locally damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. ...NY/New England... A surface cold front will sweep eastward across NY today. Thunderstorms are expected to form along the front by mid-afternoon over eastern Quebec and develop southward into central NY. A moist and unstable air mass is expected to be in place over the Hudson/Champlain Valleys, aiding a few strong storms capable of gusty winds and hail. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/10/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models are in good agreement with the overall pattern through about Sunday/D6, depicting upper ridging over the northern Plains and rising heights across the Northeast and general troughiness over the Northwest. During that same period, the disturbance over the southern Plains is forecast to lift toward the mid MS Valley with weakening trend. The greatest risk of severe storms will generally stretch from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains, as weak but backed low-level winds maintain a moist plume out of the central Plains and into MT and the Dakotas. On Friday/D4, scattered strong storms may occur over central MT, beneath modest southwest winds aloft and with around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE. Instability will build further in the Saturday/D5 to Sunday/D6 time frame, with greater storm coverage expected. However, winds aloft will be marginal. Still, developing west to northwest flow aloft could eventually result in an MCS pattern with attendant wind potential. Predictability is low at this time, but the northern and central Plains region will be monitored over the next several days for potential categorical risk outlines. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models are in good agreement with the overall pattern through about Sunday/D6, depicting upper ridging over the northern Plains and rising heights across the Northeast and general troughiness over the Northwest. During that same period, the disturbance over the southern Plains is forecast to lift toward the mid MS Valley with weakening trend. The greatest risk of severe storms will generally stretch from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains, as weak but backed low-level winds maintain a moist plume out of the central Plains and into MT and the Dakotas. On Friday/D4, scattered strong storms may occur over central MT, beneath modest southwest winds aloft and with around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE. Instability will build further in the Saturday/D5 to Sunday/D6 time frame, with greater storm coverage expected. However, winds aloft will be marginal. Still, developing west to northwest flow aloft could eventually result in an MCS pattern with attendant wind potential. Predictability is low at this time, but the northern and central Plains region will be monitored over the next several days for potential categorical risk outlines. Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Jun 9 12:02:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Jun 9 12:02:02 UTC 2025.

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0758 PM CDT SUN JUN 08 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southern Plains this evening and overnight... * LOCATIONS... North Texas Southern Oklahoma * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force A couple of tornadoes Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts up to 80-100 mph, and large to very large hail remain likely across parts of the southern Plains this evening and overnight. The greatest threat for significant severe winds should focus across north Texas and southern Oklahoma. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Gleason.. 06/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 AM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES...SOUTHEAST...TN/OH VALLEYS...AND OVER NORTHEAST NM... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development appears probable today, particularly across parts of the Ohio Valley into Appalachians, and east of the lower Mississippi Valley into eastern Gulf Coast states. No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. ...Southeast States... An upper low is centered this morning over MN/WI, with broad cyclonic flow across much of the eastern US. Several ongoing clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across from east TX into GA, with a risk of occasional gusty winds. A few hours of sunshine may be sufficient for intensification of one or more of these clusters, with damaging wind being the main concern. ...TN/OH Valleys... A similar regime is present this morning along a cold front from northwest OH into IL. Scattered strong thunderstorms may develop anywhere along the front from central PA into southeast MO. Forcing is weak so most storms will remain somewhat disorganized. However, the strongest storms will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. ...NM... Ample low-level moisture has advected westward into southern/east-central NM. This combined with strong daytime heating will encourage thunderstorm development over the mountains by mid afternoon. Storms will spread into the adjacent Plains by early evening. Mid level winds will be only marginally favorable for a few organized/rotating cells capable of hail and gusty winds. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/09/2025 Read more

WW 0400 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 400 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S CLL TO 40 SSW UTS TO 35 WNW BPT TO 20 W LCH TO 30 E LCH TO 35 ESE LFT. ..BENTLEY..06/09/25 ATTN...WFO...LCH...FWD...HGX...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 400 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC023-113-091240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE CAMERON VERMILION TXC039-071-157-167-201-245-291-339-473-091240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRAZORIA CHAMBERS FORT BEND GALVESTON HARRIS JEFFERSON LIBERTY MONTGOMERY WALLER GMZ335-430-432-091240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE GALVESTON BAY Read more

WW 400 SEVERE TSTM LA TX CW 090650Z - 091200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 400 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 150 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Louisiana Southeast and Central Texas Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday morning from 150 AM until 700 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A line of intense thunderstorms will sag southward overnight across the watch area, posing a risk of damaging wind gusts and some hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles north northwest of Austin TX to 10 miles east northeast of Lafayette LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 399... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28035. ...Hart Read more

WW 0400 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 400 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W TPL TO 35 NNW CLL TO 30 WNW UTS TO 35 SSE LFK TO 25 SSW POE TO 45 ESE POE TO 35 SE ESF. ..BENTLEY..06/09/25 ATTN...WFO...LCH...FWD...HGX...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 400 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-003-009-011-019-023-039-053-055-097-113-091040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CAMERON EVANGELINE JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE ST. LANDRY VERMILION TXC027-039-041-051-053-071-157-167-185-199-201-241-245-287-291- 313-331-339-351-361-373-407-457-471-473-477-491-091040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELL BRAZORIA BRAZOS BURLESON BURNET CHAMBERS FORT BEND GALVESTON GRIMES HARDIN HARRIS JASPER JEFFERSON LEE LIBERTY MADISON MILAM MONTGOMERY NEWTON ORANGE POLK Read more

WW 0400 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 400 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W TPL TO 35 NNW CLL TO 30 WNW UTS TO 35 SSE LFK TO 25 SSW POE TO 45 ESE POE TO 35 SE ESF. ..BENTLEY..06/09/25 ATTN...WFO...LCH...FWD...HGX...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 400 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-003-009-011-019-023-039-053-055-097-113-091040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CAMERON EVANGELINE JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE ST. LANDRY VERMILION TXC027-039-041-051-053-071-157-167-185-199-201-241-245-287-291- 313-331-339-351-361-373-407-457-471-473-477-491-091040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELL BRAZORIA BRAZOS BURLESON BURNET CHAMBERS FORT BEND GALVESTON GRIMES HARDIN HARRIS JASPER JEFFERSON LEE LIBERTY MADISON MILAM MONTGOMERY NEWTON ORANGE POLK Read more

MD 1219 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 400... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1219 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0413 AM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025 Areas affected...portions of central to southeast Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 400... Valid 090913Z - 091045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 400 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated severe wind threat will persist for the next 1 to 2 hours across parts of central Texas into southeast Texas. DISCUSSION...Convection has mostly weakened along the southward moving outflow boundary from southeast Texas into southern Louisiana. On the western periphery of the outflow boundary, across central Texas, stronger storms have persisted amid stronger instability and steeper mid-level lapse rates. Some stronger inbound velocities are present from the KGRK WSR-88D which could result in isolated severe wind reports. While additional strengthening of these storms appears unlikely, the environment should support some maintenance of ongoing storms with a continued threat for isolated severe wind gusts. Farther east along the the outflow boundary, additional convection has started to develop across southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. It is unclear whether these storms will be severe, but watch 400 will be maintained across this region despite the warm 700mb temperatures, in case a few severe storms develop. Severe wind gusts from wet microbursts will likely be the primary threat from this activity. ..Bentley.. 06/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...FWD...EWX... LAT...LON 31529782 31369682 30899480 30939395 30989341 30719293 30299299 30089341 29949526 30049642 30219740 30359778 30569814 31049842 31529782 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... Guidance remains supportive of a more active pattern across the northern High Plains to the Upper Midwest. GEFS-based ML guidance from SPC and NSSL depict mesoscale areas of 15 percent probabilities, centered on eastern MT to the Dakotas. While predictability for a specific day remains too low, the signal exists for increasing potential during the weekend to early next week. The initial low-amplitude shortwave trough over WY/eastern MT at 12Z Thursday is progged to dampen as it moves east into the Upper Midwest. An area-of-interest is evident over western SD and the NE Panhandle on D4/Thursday afternoon, but a favorable buoyancy/shear combination is too spatially confined for a 15 percent highlight. A broad swath of moderate to strong mid-level southwesterlies may persist for multiple days across the Northwest, downstream of a large-scale trough near the West Coast. At the same time, the expansive buoyancy plume over the central states should increase northwestward, building higher CAPE into the northern High Plains this weekend. Still, poor predictability persists with the spatiotemporal details of individual shortwave impulses that may support daily severe threats on D6-8/Saturday-Monday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... Guidance remains supportive of a more active pattern across the northern High Plains to the Upper Midwest. GEFS-based ML guidance from SPC and NSSL depict mesoscale areas of 15 percent probabilities, centered on eastern MT to the Dakotas. While predictability for a specific day remains too low, the signal exists for increasing potential during the weekend to early next week. The initial low-amplitude shortwave trough over WY/eastern MT at 12Z Thursday is progged to dampen as it moves east into the Upper Midwest. An area-of-interest is evident over western SD and the NE Panhandle on D4/Thursday afternoon, but a favorable buoyancy/shear combination is too spatially confined for a 15 percent highlight. A broad swath of moderate to strong mid-level southwesterlies may persist for multiple days across the Northwest, downstream of a large-scale trough near the West Coast. At the same time, the expansive buoyancy plume over the central states should increase northwestward, building higher CAPE into the northern High Plains this weekend. Still, poor predictability persists with the spatiotemporal details of individual shortwave impulses that may support daily severe threats on D6-8/Saturday-Monday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... Guidance remains supportive of a more active pattern across the northern High Plains to the Upper Midwest. GEFS-based ML guidance from SPC and NSSL depict mesoscale areas of 15 percent probabilities, centered on eastern MT to the Dakotas. While predictability for a specific day remains too low, the signal exists for increasing potential during the weekend to early next week. The initial low-amplitude shortwave trough over WY/eastern MT at 12Z Thursday is progged to dampen as it moves east into the Upper Midwest. An area-of-interest is evident over western SD and the NE Panhandle on D4/Thursday afternoon, but a favorable buoyancy/shear combination is too spatially confined for a 15 percent highlight. A broad swath of moderate to strong mid-level southwesterlies may persist for multiple days across the Northwest, downstream of a large-scale trough near the West Coast. At the same time, the expansive buoyancy plume over the central states should increase northwestward, building higher CAPE into the northern High Plains this weekend. Still, poor predictability persists with the spatiotemporal details of individual shortwave impulses that may support daily severe threats on D6-8/Saturday-Monday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... Guidance remains supportive of a more active pattern across the northern High Plains to the Upper Midwest. GEFS-based ML guidance from SPC and NSSL depict mesoscale areas of 15 percent probabilities, centered on eastern MT to the Dakotas. While predictability for a specific day remains too low, the signal exists for increasing potential during the weekend to early next week. The initial low-amplitude shortwave trough over WY/eastern MT at 12Z Thursday is progged to dampen as it moves east into the Upper Midwest. An area-of-interest is evident over western SD and the NE Panhandle on D4/Thursday afternoon, but a favorable buoyancy/shear combination is too spatially confined for a 15 percent highlight. A broad swath of moderate to strong mid-level southwesterlies may persist for multiple days across the Northwest, downstream of a large-scale trough near the West Coast. At the same time, the expansive buoyancy plume over the central states should increase northwestward, building higher CAPE into the northern High Plains this weekend. Still, poor predictability persists with the spatiotemporal details of individual shortwave impulses that may support daily severe threats on D6-8/Saturday-Monday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... Guidance remains supportive of a more active pattern across the northern High Plains to the Upper Midwest. GEFS-based ML guidance from SPC and NSSL depict mesoscale areas of 15 percent probabilities, centered on eastern MT to the Dakotas. While predictability for a specific day remains too low, the signal exists for increasing potential during the weekend to early next week. The initial low-amplitude shortwave trough over WY/eastern MT at 12Z Thursday is progged to dampen as it moves east into the Upper Midwest. An area-of-interest is evident over western SD and the NE Panhandle on D4/Thursday afternoon, but a favorable buoyancy/shear combination is too spatially confined for a 15 percent highlight. A broad swath of moderate to strong mid-level southwesterlies may persist for multiple days across the Northwest, downstream of a large-scale trough near the West Coast. At the same time, the expansive buoyancy plume over the central states should increase northwestward, building higher CAPE into the northern High Plains this weekend. Still, poor predictability persists with the spatiotemporal details of individual shortwave impulses that may support daily severe threats on D6-8/Saturday-Monday. Read more