Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... Guidance remains supportive of a more active pattern across the northern High Plains to the Upper Midwest. GEFS-based ML guidance from SPC and NSSL depict mesoscale areas of 15 percent probabilities, centered on eastern MT to the Dakotas. While predictability for a specific day remains too low, the signal exists for increasing potential during the weekend to early next week. The initial low-amplitude shortwave trough over WY/eastern MT at 12Z Thursday is progged to dampen as it moves east into the Upper Midwest. An area-of-interest is evident over western SD and the NE Panhandle on D4/Thursday afternoon, but a favorable buoyancy/shear combination is too spatially confined for a 15 percent highlight. A broad swath of moderate to strong mid-level southwesterlies may persist for multiple days across the Northwest, downstream of a large-scale trough near the West Coast. At the same time, the expansive buoyancy plume over the central states should increase northwestward, building higher CAPE into the northern High Plains this weekend. Still, poor predictability persists with the spatiotemporal details of individual shortwave impulses that may support daily severe threats on D6-8/Saturday-Monday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... Guidance remains supportive of a more active pattern across the northern High Plains to the Upper Midwest. GEFS-based ML guidance from SPC and NSSL depict mesoscale areas of 15 percent probabilities, centered on eastern MT to the Dakotas. While predictability for a specific day remains too low, the signal exists for increasing potential during the weekend to early next week. The initial low-amplitude shortwave trough over WY/eastern MT at 12Z Thursday is progged to dampen as it moves east into the Upper Midwest. An area-of-interest is evident over western SD and the NE Panhandle on D4/Thursday afternoon, but a favorable buoyancy/shear combination is too spatially confined for a 15 percent highlight. A broad swath of moderate to strong mid-level southwesterlies may persist for multiple days across the Northwest, downstream of a large-scale trough near the West Coast. At the same time, the expansive buoyancy plume over the central states should increase northwestward, building higher CAPE into the northern High Plains this weekend. Still, poor predictability persists with the spatiotemporal details of individual shortwave impulses that may support daily severe threats on D6-8/Saturday-Monday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... Guidance remains supportive of a more active pattern across the northern High Plains to the Upper Midwest. GEFS-based ML guidance from SPC and NSSL depict mesoscale areas of 15 percent probabilities, centered on eastern MT to the Dakotas. While predictability for a specific day remains too low, the signal exists for increasing potential during the weekend to early next week. The initial low-amplitude shortwave trough over WY/eastern MT at 12Z Thursday is progged to dampen as it moves east into the Upper Midwest. An area-of-interest is evident over western SD and the NE Panhandle on D4/Thursday afternoon, but a favorable buoyancy/shear combination is too spatially confined for a 15 percent highlight. A broad swath of moderate to strong mid-level southwesterlies may persist for multiple days across the Northwest, downstream of a large-scale trough near the West Coast. At the same time, the expansive buoyancy plume over the central states should increase northwestward, building higher CAPE into the northern High Plains this weekend. Still, poor predictability persists with the spatiotemporal details of individual shortwave impulses that may support daily severe threats on D6-8/Saturday-Monday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... Guidance remains supportive of a more active pattern across the northern High Plains to the Upper Midwest. GEFS-based ML guidance from SPC and NSSL depict mesoscale areas of 15 percent probabilities, centered on eastern MT to the Dakotas. While predictability for a specific day remains too low, the signal exists for increasing potential during the weekend to early next week. The initial low-amplitude shortwave trough over WY/eastern MT at 12Z Thursday is progged to dampen as it moves east into the Upper Midwest. An area-of-interest is evident over western SD and the NE Panhandle on D4/Thursday afternoon, but a favorable buoyancy/shear combination is too spatially confined for a 15 percent highlight. A broad swath of moderate to strong mid-level southwesterlies may persist for multiple days across the Northwest, downstream of a large-scale trough near the West Coast. At the same time, the expansive buoyancy plume over the central states should increase northwestward, building higher CAPE into the northern High Plains this weekend. Still, poor predictability persists with the spatiotemporal details of individual shortwave impulses that may support daily severe threats on D6-8/Saturday-Monday. Read more

WW 0400 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 400 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BENTLEY..06/09/25 ATTN...WFO...LCH...FWD...HGX...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 400 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-003-009-011-019-023-039-053-055-079-097-113-115-090940- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CAMERON EVANGELINE JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE RAPIDES ST. LANDRY VERMILION VERNON TXC027-039-041-051-071-099-145-157-167-185-199-201-225-241-245- 281-287-291-313-331-333-339-351-361-373-407-455-457-471-473-477- 491-090940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELL BRAZORIA BRAZOS BURLESON CHAMBERS CORYELL FALLS FORT BEND GALVESTON GRIMES HARDIN HARRIS HOUSTON JASPER JEFFERSON LAMPASAS LEE LIBERTY MADISON MILAM MILLS Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Northwest and Intermountain West, the Corn Belt, and southern Texas. ...Northwest/Intermountain West... A low-amplitude shortwave trough will progress across the northern Great Basin towards the WY Rockies through 12Z Thursday. Its attendant belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies should remain rather confined, likely centered on southeast ID/northern UT during late afternoon Wednesday. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest, contributing to mainly weak buoyancy. Scattered thunderstorms are likely during the afternoon Wednesday with a broad region of at least low-probability severe wind/hail across parts of ID/MT/UT/WY. ...Corn Belt... A west/east-oriented baroclinic zone is expected to strengthen by Wednesday afternoon as richer low-level moisture advects north across the central states and surface ridging noses south across MN in the wake of a shortwave trough over eastern ON. A confined corridor of moderate surface-based buoyancy may develop south of the front, but will quickly weaken in the cooler/drier stable air mass to the north. Mid-level westerlies will similarly have a gradient across the boundary, stronger north and weaker south. Overall setup could support isolated severe hail/wind within a confined corridor from late afternoon into evening on Wednesday. ...Southern/central TX... A low-confidence forecast is anticipated as a low-amplitude shortwave trough stalls on Wednesday. A belt of modestly enhanced mid-level flow is anticipated ahead of it with southwesterlies, and behind it with northwesterlies. Convective evolution has large spread across guidance and overall appears nebulous given the synoptic pattern. Have delineated a low-probability severe risk mainly across the southern to central parts of TX where pockets of greater destabilization, coincident with modest deep-layer shear, may be realized. ..Grams.. 06/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Northwest and Intermountain West, the Corn Belt, and southern Texas. ...Northwest/Intermountain West... A low-amplitude shortwave trough will progress across the northern Great Basin towards the WY Rockies through 12Z Thursday. Its attendant belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies should remain rather confined, likely centered on southeast ID/northern UT during late afternoon Wednesday. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest, contributing to mainly weak buoyancy. Scattered thunderstorms are likely during the afternoon Wednesday with a broad region of at least low-probability severe wind/hail across parts of ID/MT/UT/WY. ...Corn Belt... A west/east-oriented baroclinic zone is expected to strengthen by Wednesday afternoon as richer low-level moisture advects north across the central states and surface ridging noses south across MN in the wake of a shortwave trough over eastern ON. A confined corridor of moderate surface-based buoyancy may develop south of the front, but will quickly weaken in the cooler/drier stable air mass to the north. Mid-level westerlies will similarly have a gradient across the boundary, stronger north and weaker south. Overall setup could support isolated severe hail/wind within a confined corridor from late afternoon into evening on Wednesday. ...Southern/central TX... A low-confidence forecast is anticipated as a low-amplitude shortwave trough stalls on Wednesday. A belt of modestly enhanced mid-level flow is anticipated ahead of it with southwesterlies, and behind it with northwesterlies. Convective evolution has large spread across guidance and overall appears nebulous given the synoptic pattern. Have delineated a low-probability severe risk mainly across the southern to central parts of TX where pockets of greater destabilization, coincident with modest deep-layer shear, may be realized. ..Grams.. 06/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Northwest and Intermountain West, the Corn Belt, and southern Texas. ...Northwest/Intermountain West... A low-amplitude shortwave trough will progress across the northern Great Basin towards the WY Rockies through 12Z Thursday. Its attendant belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies should remain rather confined, likely centered on southeast ID/northern UT during late afternoon Wednesday. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest, contributing to mainly weak buoyancy. Scattered thunderstorms are likely during the afternoon Wednesday with a broad region of at least low-probability severe wind/hail across parts of ID/MT/UT/WY. ...Corn Belt... A west/east-oriented baroclinic zone is expected to strengthen by Wednesday afternoon as richer low-level moisture advects north across the central states and surface ridging noses south across MN in the wake of a shortwave trough over eastern ON. A confined corridor of moderate surface-based buoyancy may develop south of the front, but will quickly weaken in the cooler/drier stable air mass to the north. Mid-level westerlies will similarly have a gradient across the boundary, stronger north and weaker south. Overall setup could support isolated severe hail/wind within a confined corridor from late afternoon into evening on Wednesday. ...Southern/central TX... A low-confidence forecast is anticipated as a low-amplitude shortwave trough stalls on Wednesday. A belt of modestly enhanced mid-level flow is anticipated ahead of it with southwesterlies, and behind it with northwesterlies. Convective evolution has large spread across guidance and overall appears nebulous given the synoptic pattern. Have delineated a low-probability severe risk mainly across the southern to central parts of TX where pockets of greater destabilization, coincident with modest deep-layer shear, may be realized. ..Grams.. 06/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Northwest and Intermountain West, the Corn Belt, and southern Texas. ...Northwest/Intermountain West... A low-amplitude shortwave trough will progress across the northern Great Basin towards the WY Rockies through 12Z Thursday. Its attendant belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies should remain rather confined, likely centered on southeast ID/northern UT during late afternoon Wednesday. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest, contributing to mainly weak buoyancy. Scattered thunderstorms are likely during the afternoon Wednesday with a broad region of at least low-probability severe wind/hail across parts of ID/MT/UT/WY. ...Corn Belt... A west/east-oriented baroclinic zone is expected to strengthen by Wednesday afternoon as richer low-level moisture advects north across the central states and surface ridging noses south across MN in the wake of a shortwave trough over eastern ON. A confined corridor of moderate surface-based buoyancy may develop south of the front, but will quickly weaken in the cooler/drier stable air mass to the north. Mid-level westerlies will similarly have a gradient across the boundary, stronger north and weaker south. Overall setup could support isolated severe hail/wind within a confined corridor from late afternoon into evening on Wednesday. ...Southern/central TX... A low-confidence forecast is anticipated as a low-amplitude shortwave trough stalls on Wednesday. A belt of modestly enhanced mid-level flow is anticipated ahead of it with southwesterlies, and behind it with northwesterlies. Convective evolution has large spread across guidance and overall appears nebulous given the synoptic pattern. Have delineated a low-probability severe risk mainly across the southern to central parts of TX where pockets of greater destabilization, coincident with modest deep-layer shear, may be realized. ..Grams.. 06/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Northwest and Intermountain West, the Corn Belt, and southern Texas. ...Northwest/Intermountain West... A low-amplitude shortwave trough will progress across the northern Great Basin towards the WY Rockies through 12Z Thursday. Its attendant belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies should remain rather confined, likely centered on southeast ID/northern UT during late afternoon Wednesday. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest, contributing to mainly weak buoyancy. Scattered thunderstorms are likely during the afternoon Wednesday with a broad region of at least low-probability severe wind/hail across parts of ID/MT/UT/WY. ...Corn Belt... A west/east-oriented baroclinic zone is expected to strengthen by Wednesday afternoon as richer low-level moisture advects north across the central states and surface ridging noses south across MN in the wake of a shortwave trough over eastern ON. A confined corridor of moderate surface-based buoyancy may develop south of the front, but will quickly weaken in the cooler/drier stable air mass to the north. Mid-level westerlies will similarly have a gradient across the boundary, stronger north and weaker south. Overall setup could support isolated severe hail/wind within a confined corridor from late afternoon into evening on Wednesday. ...Southern/central TX... A low-confidence forecast is anticipated as a low-amplitude shortwave trough stalls on Wednesday. A belt of modestly enhanced mid-level flow is anticipated ahead of it with southwesterlies, and behind it with northwesterlies. Convective evolution has large spread across guidance and overall appears nebulous given the synoptic pattern. Have delineated a low-probability severe risk mainly across the southern to central parts of TX where pockets of greater destabilization, coincident with modest deep-layer shear, may be realized. ..Grams.. 06/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Northwest and Intermountain West, the Corn Belt, and southern Texas. ...Northwest/Intermountain West... A low-amplitude shortwave trough will progress across the northern Great Basin towards the WY Rockies through 12Z Thursday. Its attendant belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies should remain rather confined, likely centered on southeast ID/northern UT during late afternoon Wednesday. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest, contributing to mainly weak buoyancy. Scattered thunderstorms are likely during the afternoon Wednesday with a broad region of at least low-probability severe wind/hail across parts of ID/MT/UT/WY. ...Corn Belt... A west/east-oriented baroclinic zone is expected to strengthen by Wednesday afternoon as richer low-level moisture advects north across the central states and surface ridging noses south across MN in the wake of a shortwave trough over eastern ON. A confined corridor of moderate surface-based buoyancy may develop south of the front, but will quickly weaken in the cooler/drier stable air mass to the north. Mid-level westerlies will similarly have a gradient across the boundary, stronger north and weaker south. Overall setup could support isolated severe hail/wind within a confined corridor from late afternoon into evening on Wednesday. ...Southern/central TX... A low-confidence forecast is anticipated as a low-amplitude shortwave trough stalls on Wednesday. A belt of modestly enhanced mid-level flow is anticipated ahead of it with southwesterlies, and behind it with northwesterlies. Convective evolution has large spread across guidance and overall appears nebulous given the synoptic pattern. Have delineated a low-probability severe risk mainly across the southern to central parts of TX where pockets of greater destabilization, coincident with modest deep-layer shear, may be realized. ..Grams.. 06/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Northwest and Intermountain West, the Corn Belt, and southern Texas. ...Northwest/Intermountain West... A low-amplitude shortwave trough will progress across the northern Great Basin towards the WY Rockies through 12Z Thursday. Its attendant belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies should remain rather confined, likely centered on southeast ID/northern UT during late afternoon Wednesday. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest, contributing to mainly weak buoyancy. Scattered thunderstorms are likely during the afternoon Wednesday with a broad region of at least low-probability severe wind/hail across parts of ID/MT/UT/WY. ...Corn Belt... A west/east-oriented baroclinic zone is expected to strengthen by Wednesday afternoon as richer low-level moisture advects north across the central states and surface ridging noses south across MN in the wake of a shortwave trough over eastern ON. A confined corridor of moderate surface-based buoyancy may develop south of the front, but will quickly weaken in the cooler/drier stable air mass to the north. Mid-level westerlies will similarly have a gradient across the boundary, stronger north and weaker south. Overall setup could support isolated severe hail/wind within a confined corridor from late afternoon into evening on Wednesday. ...Southern/central TX... A low-confidence forecast is anticipated as a low-amplitude shortwave trough stalls on Wednesday. A belt of modestly enhanced mid-level flow is anticipated ahead of it with southwesterlies, and behind it with northwesterlies. Convective evolution has large spread across guidance and overall appears nebulous given the synoptic pattern. Have delineated a low-probability severe risk mainly across the southern to central parts of TX where pockets of greater destabilization, coincident with modest deep-layer shear, may be realized. ..Grams.. 06/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Northwest and Intermountain West, the Corn Belt, and southern Texas. ...Northwest/Intermountain West... A low-amplitude shortwave trough will progress across the northern Great Basin towards the WY Rockies through 12Z Thursday. Its attendant belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies should remain rather confined, likely centered on southeast ID/northern UT during late afternoon Wednesday. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest, contributing to mainly weak buoyancy. Scattered thunderstorms are likely during the afternoon Wednesday with a broad region of at least low-probability severe wind/hail across parts of ID/MT/UT/WY. ...Corn Belt... A west/east-oriented baroclinic zone is expected to strengthen by Wednesday afternoon as richer low-level moisture advects north across the central states and surface ridging noses south across MN in the wake of a shortwave trough over eastern ON. A confined corridor of moderate surface-based buoyancy may develop south of the front, but will quickly weaken in the cooler/drier stable air mass to the north. Mid-level westerlies will similarly have a gradient across the boundary, stronger north and weaker south. Overall setup could support isolated severe hail/wind within a confined corridor from late afternoon into evening on Wednesday. ...Southern/central TX... A low-confidence forecast is anticipated as a low-amplitude shortwave trough stalls on Wednesday. A belt of modestly enhanced mid-level flow is anticipated ahead of it with southwesterlies, and behind it with northwesterlies. Convective evolution has large spread across guidance and overall appears nebulous given the synoptic pattern. Have delineated a low-probability severe risk mainly across the southern to central parts of TX where pockets of greater destabilization, coincident with modest deep-layer shear, may be realized. ..Grams.. 06/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Northwest and Intermountain West, the Corn Belt, and southern Texas. ...Northwest/Intermountain West... A low-amplitude shortwave trough will progress across the northern Great Basin towards the WY Rockies through 12Z Thursday. Its attendant belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies should remain rather confined, likely centered on southeast ID/northern UT during late afternoon Wednesday. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest, contributing to mainly weak buoyancy. Scattered thunderstorms are likely during the afternoon Wednesday with a broad region of at least low-probability severe wind/hail across parts of ID/MT/UT/WY. ...Corn Belt... A west/east-oriented baroclinic zone is expected to strengthen by Wednesday afternoon as richer low-level moisture advects north across the central states and surface ridging noses south across MN in the wake of a shortwave trough over eastern ON. A confined corridor of moderate surface-based buoyancy may develop south of the front, but will quickly weaken in the cooler/drier stable air mass to the north. Mid-level westerlies will similarly have a gradient across the boundary, stronger north and weaker south. Overall setup could support isolated severe hail/wind within a confined corridor from late afternoon into evening on Wednesday. ...Southern/central TX... A low-confidence forecast is anticipated as a low-amplitude shortwave trough stalls on Wednesday. A belt of modestly enhanced mid-level flow is anticipated ahead of it with southwesterlies, and behind it with northwesterlies. Convective evolution has large spread across guidance and overall appears nebulous given the synoptic pattern. Have delineated a low-probability severe risk mainly across the southern to central parts of TX where pockets of greater destabilization, coincident with modest deep-layer shear, may be realized. ..Grams.. 06/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Northwest and Intermountain West, the Corn Belt, and southern Texas. ...Northwest/Intermountain West... A low-amplitude shortwave trough will progress across the northern Great Basin towards the WY Rockies through 12Z Thursday. Its attendant belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies should remain rather confined, likely centered on southeast ID/northern UT during late afternoon Wednesday. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest, contributing to mainly weak buoyancy. Scattered thunderstorms are likely during the afternoon Wednesday with a broad region of at least low-probability severe wind/hail across parts of ID/MT/UT/WY. ...Corn Belt... A west/east-oriented baroclinic zone is expected to strengthen by Wednesday afternoon as richer low-level moisture advects north across the central states and surface ridging noses south across MN in the wake of a shortwave trough over eastern ON. A confined corridor of moderate surface-based buoyancy may develop south of the front, but will quickly weaken in the cooler/drier stable air mass to the north. Mid-level westerlies will similarly have a gradient across the boundary, stronger north and weaker south. Overall setup could support isolated severe hail/wind within a confined corridor from late afternoon into evening on Wednesday. ...Southern/central TX... A low-confidence forecast is anticipated as a low-amplitude shortwave trough stalls on Wednesday. A belt of modestly enhanced mid-level flow is anticipated ahead of it with southwesterlies, and behind it with northwesterlies. Convective evolution has large spread across guidance and overall appears nebulous given the synoptic pattern. Have delineated a low-probability severe risk mainly across the southern to central parts of TX where pockets of greater destabilization, coincident with modest deep-layer shear, may be realized. ..Grams.. 06/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Northwest and Intermountain West, the Corn Belt, and southern Texas. ...Northwest/Intermountain West... A low-amplitude shortwave trough will progress across the northern Great Basin towards the WY Rockies through 12Z Thursday. Its attendant belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies should remain rather confined, likely centered on southeast ID/northern UT during late afternoon Wednesday. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest, contributing to mainly weak buoyancy. Scattered thunderstorms are likely during the afternoon Wednesday with a broad region of at least low-probability severe wind/hail across parts of ID/MT/UT/WY. ...Corn Belt... A west/east-oriented baroclinic zone is expected to strengthen by Wednesday afternoon as richer low-level moisture advects north across the central states and surface ridging noses south across MN in the wake of a shortwave trough over eastern ON. A confined corridor of moderate surface-based buoyancy may develop south of the front, but will quickly weaken in the cooler/drier stable air mass to the north. Mid-level westerlies will similarly have a gradient across the boundary, stronger north and weaker south. Overall setup could support isolated severe hail/wind within a confined corridor from late afternoon into evening on Wednesday. ...Southern/central TX... A low-confidence forecast is anticipated as a low-amplitude shortwave trough stalls on Wednesday. A belt of modestly enhanced mid-level flow is anticipated ahead of it with southwesterlies, and behind it with northwesterlies. Convective evolution has large spread across guidance and overall appears nebulous given the synoptic pattern. Have delineated a low-probability severe risk mainly across the southern to central parts of TX where pockets of greater destabilization, coincident with modest deep-layer shear, may be realized. ..Grams.. 06/09/2025 Read more

MD 1218 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1218 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025 Areas affected...parts of east-central/southeast Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 090614Z - 090745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed south of watch 399. DISCUSSION...A southward moving line of storms from northeast Texas to north-central Texas will pose some severe weather threat through the early morning hours Monday. 2000 to 3000 J/kg MUCAPE and 40 knots of effective shear should provide sufficient instability/organization for this line of storms to persist through the morning. The line is broken across central Texas with some more organized segments southeast of Dallas and more supercellular structure southwest of Fort Worth. Some guidance, such as the HRRR, suggests that these supercells across central Texas may congeal into a cluster and move southeast toward College Station. If this occurs, a greater severe weather threat may materialize across east-central Texas. However, if the storms remain somewhat spaced and well behind the gust front, a more organized severe wind threat seems more uncertain. Trends will be monitored and a downstream severe thunderstorm watch may be needed. ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... LAT...LON 30629798 31129842 31489854 31659837 32309588 31629468 31029451 30459424 29939477 29789583 30179671 30629798 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0399 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 399 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N BWD TO 35 E SEP TO 20 WSW CRS TO 40 S TYR TO 45 SSE GGG TO 20 S SHV TO 20 ENE SHV. ..BENTLEY..06/09/25 ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 399 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC013-015-021-027-031-043-049-059-061-073-081-085-111-119-127- 090840- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE BOSSIER CALDWELL CLAIBORNE DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE LINCOLN OUACHITA RED RIVER SABINE UNION WEBSTER WINN TXC001-005-035-073-093-133-143-161-193-217-251-289-293-309-347- 349-395-403-405-419-425-090840- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON ANGELINA BOSQUE CHEROKEE COMANCHE EASTLAND ERATH FREESTONE HAMILTON HILL JOHNSON LEON LIMESTONE MCLENNAN NACOGDOCHES Read more

WW 0399 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 399 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N BWD TO 35 E SEP TO 20 WSW CRS TO 40 S TYR TO 45 SSE GGG TO 20 S SHV TO 20 ENE SHV. ..BENTLEY..06/09/25 ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 399 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC013-015-021-027-031-043-049-059-061-073-081-085-111-119-127- 090840- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE BOSSIER CALDWELL CLAIBORNE DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE LINCOLN OUACHITA RED RIVER SABINE UNION WEBSTER WINN TXC001-005-035-073-093-133-143-161-193-217-251-289-293-309-347- 349-395-403-405-419-425-090840- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON ANGELINA BOSQUE CHEROKEE COMANCHE EASTLAND ERATH FREESTONE HAMILTON HILL JOHNSON LEON LIMESTONE MCLENNAN NACOGDOCHES Read more

WW 0399 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 399 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N BWD TO 35 E SEP TO 20 WSW CRS TO 40 S TYR TO 45 SSE GGG TO 20 S SHV TO 20 ENE SHV. ..BENTLEY..06/09/25 ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 399 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC013-015-021-027-031-043-049-059-061-073-081-085-111-119-127- 090840- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE BOSSIER CALDWELL CLAIBORNE DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE LINCOLN OUACHITA RED RIVER SABINE UNION WEBSTER WINN TXC001-005-035-073-093-133-143-161-193-217-251-289-293-309-347- 349-395-403-405-419-425-090840- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON ANGELINA BOSQUE CHEROKEE COMANCHE EASTLAND ERATH FREESTONE HAMILTON HILL JOHNSON LEON LIMESTONE MCLENNAN NACOGDOCHES Read more