Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are forecast across the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe wind gusts are also possible in the Northern Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest into the southwestern Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will translate slowly east across the central CONUS on Thursday. To the east, a strong upper-level trough will amplify across eastern Canada with a strong mid-level jet streak moving across the Northeast. Farther west, several mid-level troughs will traverse the southwesterly flow across the Rockies with widespread thunderstorm activity expected. ...Northeast... Weak to potentially moderate instability is forecast to develop across the Northeast on Thursday ahead of a southeastward moving cold front. Scattered storms are expected along and ahead of the surface front as forcing for ascent increases across the Northeast. These storms will likely be mostly multicellular due to modest shear and instability. However, if some greater instability can develop beneath the compact but strong 50 knot mid-level jet streak, a few supercells may also be possible. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat from the storms across the Northeast. ...Southwestern Great Lakes... A reservoir of low to mid 70s dewpoints is forecast to develop across Iowa, eastern Minnesota, and Wisconsin Thursday afternoon. Strong heating will likely result in strong instability across the region. Forcing for storm development remains somewhat questionable at this time. However, moderate shear will support the potential for supercells with any storms that develop. Therefore, a conditionally greater severe weather threat is possible, but questions regarding storm coverage preclude higher probabilities at this time. ...Northern Plains... Strong instability is forecast to develop across the northern Plains on Thursday as upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints advect into western North Dakota. High-based thunderstorms will likely develop during the afternoon as a mid-level shortwave trough approaches the region. Effective shear will be relatively weak but steep low and mid-level lapse rates and strong instability will support a threat for isolated severe wind gusts Thursday afternoon/evening. ..Bentley.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are forecast across the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe wind gusts are also possible in the Northern Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest into the southwestern Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will translate slowly east across the central CONUS on Thursday. To the east, a strong upper-level trough will amplify across eastern Canada with a strong mid-level jet streak moving across the Northeast. Farther west, several mid-level troughs will traverse the southwesterly flow across the Rockies with widespread thunderstorm activity expected. ...Northeast... Weak to potentially moderate instability is forecast to develop across the Northeast on Thursday ahead of a southeastward moving cold front. Scattered storms are expected along and ahead of the surface front as forcing for ascent increases across the Northeast. These storms will likely be mostly multicellular due to modest shear and instability. However, if some greater instability can develop beneath the compact but strong 50 knot mid-level jet streak, a few supercells may also be possible. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat from the storms across the Northeast. ...Southwestern Great Lakes... A reservoir of low to mid 70s dewpoints is forecast to develop across Iowa, eastern Minnesota, and Wisconsin Thursday afternoon. Strong heating will likely result in strong instability across the region. Forcing for storm development remains somewhat questionable at this time. However, moderate shear will support the potential for supercells with any storms that develop. Therefore, a conditionally greater severe weather threat is possible, but questions regarding storm coverage preclude higher probabilities at this time. ...Northern Plains... Strong instability is forecast to develop across the northern Plains on Thursday as upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints advect into western North Dakota. High-based thunderstorms will likely develop during the afternoon as a mid-level shortwave trough approaches the region. Effective shear will be relatively weak but steep low and mid-level lapse rates and strong instability will support a threat for isolated severe wind gusts Thursday afternoon/evening. ..Bentley.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are forecast across the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe wind gusts are also possible in the Northern Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest into the southwestern Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will translate slowly east across the central CONUS on Thursday. To the east, a strong upper-level trough will amplify across eastern Canada with a strong mid-level jet streak moving across the Northeast. Farther west, several mid-level troughs will traverse the southwesterly flow across the Rockies with widespread thunderstorm activity expected. ...Northeast... Weak to potentially moderate instability is forecast to develop across the Northeast on Thursday ahead of a southeastward moving cold front. Scattered storms are expected along and ahead of the surface front as forcing for ascent increases across the Northeast. These storms will likely be mostly multicellular due to modest shear and instability. However, if some greater instability can develop beneath the compact but strong 50 knot mid-level jet streak, a few supercells may also be possible. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat from the storms across the Northeast. ...Southwestern Great Lakes... A reservoir of low to mid 70s dewpoints is forecast to develop across Iowa, eastern Minnesota, and Wisconsin Thursday afternoon. Strong heating will likely result in strong instability across the region. Forcing for storm development remains somewhat questionable at this time. However, moderate shear will support the potential for supercells with any storms that develop. Therefore, a conditionally greater severe weather threat is possible, but questions regarding storm coverage preclude higher probabilities at this time. ...Northern Plains... Strong instability is forecast to develop across the northern Plains on Thursday as upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints advect into western North Dakota. High-based thunderstorms will likely develop during the afternoon as a mid-level shortwave trough approaches the region. Effective shear will be relatively weak but steep low and mid-level lapse rates and strong instability will support a threat for isolated severe wind gusts Thursday afternoon/evening. ..Bentley.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are forecast across the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe wind gusts are also possible in the Northern Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest into the southwestern Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will translate slowly east across the central CONUS on Thursday. To the east, a strong upper-level trough will amplify across eastern Canada with a strong mid-level jet streak moving across the Northeast. Farther west, several mid-level troughs will traverse the southwesterly flow across the Rockies with widespread thunderstorm activity expected. ...Northeast... Weak to potentially moderate instability is forecast to develop across the Northeast on Thursday ahead of a southeastward moving cold front. Scattered storms are expected along and ahead of the surface front as forcing for ascent increases across the Northeast. These storms will likely be mostly multicellular due to modest shear and instability. However, if some greater instability can develop beneath the compact but strong 50 knot mid-level jet streak, a few supercells may also be possible. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat from the storms across the Northeast. ...Southwestern Great Lakes... A reservoir of low to mid 70s dewpoints is forecast to develop across Iowa, eastern Minnesota, and Wisconsin Thursday afternoon. Strong heating will likely result in strong instability across the region. Forcing for storm development remains somewhat questionable at this time. However, moderate shear will support the potential for supercells with any storms that develop. Therefore, a conditionally greater severe weather threat is possible, but questions regarding storm coverage preclude higher probabilities at this time. ...Northern Plains... Strong instability is forecast to develop across the northern Plains on Thursday as upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints advect into western North Dakota. High-based thunderstorms will likely develop during the afternoon as a mid-level shortwave trough approaches the region. Effective shear will be relatively weak but steep low and mid-level lapse rates and strong instability will support a threat for isolated severe wind gusts Thursday afternoon/evening. ..Bentley.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are forecast across the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe wind gusts are also possible in the Northern Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest into the southwestern Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will translate slowly east across the central CONUS on Thursday. To the east, a strong upper-level trough will amplify across eastern Canada with a strong mid-level jet streak moving across the Northeast. Farther west, several mid-level troughs will traverse the southwesterly flow across the Rockies with widespread thunderstorm activity expected. ...Northeast... Weak to potentially moderate instability is forecast to develop across the Northeast on Thursday ahead of a southeastward moving cold front. Scattered storms are expected along and ahead of the surface front as forcing for ascent increases across the Northeast. These storms will likely be mostly multicellular due to modest shear and instability. However, if some greater instability can develop beneath the compact but strong 50 knot mid-level jet streak, a few supercells may also be possible. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat from the storms across the Northeast. ...Southwestern Great Lakes... A reservoir of low to mid 70s dewpoints is forecast to develop across Iowa, eastern Minnesota, and Wisconsin Thursday afternoon. Strong heating will likely result in strong instability across the region. Forcing for storm development remains somewhat questionable at this time. However, moderate shear will support the potential for supercells with any storms that develop. Therefore, a conditionally greater severe weather threat is possible, but questions regarding storm coverage preclude higher probabilities at this time. ...Northern Plains... Strong instability is forecast to develop across the northern Plains on Thursday as upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints advect into western North Dakota. High-based thunderstorms will likely develop during the afternoon as a mid-level shortwave trough approaches the region. Effective shear will be relatively weak but steep low and mid-level lapse rates and strong instability will support a threat for isolated severe wind gusts Thursday afternoon/evening. ..Bentley.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are forecast across the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe wind gusts are also possible in the Northern Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest into the southwestern Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will translate slowly east across the central CONUS on Thursday. To the east, a strong upper-level trough will amplify across eastern Canada with a strong mid-level jet streak moving across the Northeast. Farther west, several mid-level troughs will traverse the southwesterly flow across the Rockies with widespread thunderstorm activity expected. ...Northeast... Weak to potentially moderate instability is forecast to develop across the Northeast on Thursday ahead of a southeastward moving cold front. Scattered storms are expected along and ahead of the surface front as forcing for ascent increases across the Northeast. These storms will likely be mostly multicellular due to modest shear and instability. However, if some greater instability can develop beneath the compact but strong 50 knot mid-level jet streak, a few supercells may also be possible. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat from the storms across the Northeast. ...Southwestern Great Lakes... A reservoir of low to mid 70s dewpoints is forecast to develop across Iowa, eastern Minnesota, and Wisconsin Thursday afternoon. Strong heating will likely result in strong instability across the region. Forcing for storm development remains somewhat questionable at this time. However, moderate shear will support the potential for supercells with any storms that develop. Therefore, a conditionally greater severe weather threat is possible, but questions regarding storm coverage preclude higher probabilities at this time. ...Northern Plains... Strong instability is forecast to develop across the northern Plains on Thursday as upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints advect into western North Dakota. High-based thunderstorms will likely develop during the afternoon as a mid-level shortwave trough approaches the region. Effective shear will be relatively weak but steep low and mid-level lapse rates and strong instability will support a threat for isolated severe wind gusts Thursday afternoon/evening. ..Bentley.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are forecast across the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe wind gusts are also possible in the Northern Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest into the southwestern Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will translate slowly east across the central CONUS on Thursday. To the east, a strong upper-level trough will amplify across eastern Canada with a strong mid-level jet streak moving across the Northeast. Farther west, several mid-level troughs will traverse the southwesterly flow across the Rockies with widespread thunderstorm activity expected. ...Northeast... Weak to potentially moderate instability is forecast to develop across the Northeast on Thursday ahead of a southeastward moving cold front. Scattered storms are expected along and ahead of the surface front as forcing for ascent increases across the Northeast. These storms will likely be mostly multicellular due to modest shear and instability. However, if some greater instability can develop beneath the compact but strong 50 knot mid-level jet streak, a few supercells may also be possible. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat from the storms across the Northeast. ...Southwestern Great Lakes... A reservoir of low to mid 70s dewpoints is forecast to develop across Iowa, eastern Minnesota, and Wisconsin Thursday afternoon. Strong heating will likely result in strong instability across the region. Forcing for storm development remains somewhat questionable at this time. However, moderate shear will support the potential for supercells with any storms that develop. Therefore, a conditionally greater severe weather threat is possible, but questions regarding storm coverage preclude higher probabilities at this time. ...Northern Plains... Strong instability is forecast to develop across the northern Plains on Thursday as upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints advect into western North Dakota. High-based thunderstorms will likely develop during the afternoon as a mid-level shortwave trough approaches the region. Effective shear will be relatively weak but steep low and mid-level lapse rates and strong instability will support a threat for isolated severe wind gusts Thursday afternoon/evening. ..Bentley.. 07/02/2025 Read more

MD 1539 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 482... FOR PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1539 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Areas affected...Portions of Nebraska Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 482... Valid 020426Z - 020630Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 482 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated hail/wind threat continues for the next few hours across portions of Nebraska. DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery suggests a weak short-wave trough is digging southeast across southern SD/northern NE. Scattered strong, to locally severe, thunderstorms are noted ahead of this feature across northern NE. This activity is propagating toward a region of substantially less instability, though a LLJ appears to be influencing the longevity. Latest radar data suggests hail cores are generally sub severe, and this trend is decidedly down over the last few hours. New watch is not anticipated, though marginally severe hail and gusty winds could be noted in the short term. ..Darrow.. 07/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF... LAT...LON 41389823 41020007 41770141 42819993 42489833 41389823 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...GREAT BASIN...AND UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the northern Rockies/High Plains, Great Basin, and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... Ample daytime heating is forecast today on the northern/western periphery of upper ridging centered over the Plains. Current expectations are that high-based thunderstorms will develop initially over the higher terrain of the northern Rockies, and subsequently spread east-northeastward through the evening. Even with low-level moisture and instability expected to remain modest/weak, a very well-mixed boundary layer will be in place across this region and the adjacent High Plains. Thunderstorm downdrafts will likely be able to efficiently mix modestly enhanced mid-level flow to the surface, and isolated severe gusts should occur with this activity as it moves across MT and vicinity through this evening. Confidence in a more concentrated corridor of severe winds was not high enough to include greater severe probabilities with this update. ...Great Basin... Modestly enhanced southerly flow will be present today over parts of the Great Basin in association with a decaying/weak upper trough/low over CA and the western Great Basin. While some cloud cover may limit diurnal heating and related steepening of low-level lapse rates to some extent this afternoon, it still appears probable that a generally well-mixed boundary layer will exist across much of NV into western UT. At least scattered thunderstorms should spread northward across these areas this afternoon/evening, with isolated severe wind gusts possible. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... As upper ridging builds over the Plains today, a shortwave trough over Ontario will dig southeastward and provide glancing large-scale ascent over parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. A seasonably moist low-level airmass is expected to remain over most of these regions, and daytime heating will likely aid in the development of moderate to strong instability along/south of a front. Some enhancement to the mid/upper-level west-northwesterly flow should support sufficient deep-layer shear for organized thunderstorms, and a conditionally favorable environment for severe thunderstorms remains apparent. Primary uncertainty remains overall convective coverage given generally weak large-scale ascent. Have therefore maintained the Marginal Risk for severe hail/wind across these regions with minimal changes. ...Eastern North Carolina... Weak upper troughing will advance eastward today across the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas as a surface cold front likewise moves slowly east-southeastward across these areas. Poor lapse rates aloft will likely limit updraft strength, and deep-layer shear is also expected to remain weak. While thunderstorms should develop through the afternoon along/ahead of the front across eastern NC and vicinity, the potential for damaging winds currently appears too limited to include low severe probabilities at this time. ..Gleason/Lyons.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...GREAT BASIN...AND UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the northern Rockies/High Plains, Great Basin, and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... Ample daytime heating is forecast today on the northern/western periphery of upper ridging centered over the Plains. Current expectations are that high-based thunderstorms will develop initially over the higher terrain of the northern Rockies, and subsequently spread east-northeastward through the evening. Even with low-level moisture and instability expected to remain modest/weak, a very well-mixed boundary layer will be in place across this region and the adjacent High Plains. Thunderstorm downdrafts will likely be able to efficiently mix modestly enhanced mid-level flow to the surface, and isolated severe gusts should occur with this activity as it moves across MT and vicinity through this evening. Confidence in a more concentrated corridor of severe winds was not high enough to include greater severe probabilities with this update. ...Great Basin... Modestly enhanced southerly flow will be present today over parts of the Great Basin in association with a decaying/weak upper trough/low over CA and the western Great Basin. While some cloud cover may limit diurnal heating and related steepening of low-level lapse rates to some extent this afternoon, it still appears probable that a generally well-mixed boundary layer will exist across much of NV into western UT. At least scattered thunderstorms should spread northward across these areas this afternoon/evening, with isolated severe wind gusts possible. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... As upper ridging builds over the Plains today, a shortwave trough over Ontario will dig southeastward and provide glancing large-scale ascent over parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. A seasonably moist low-level airmass is expected to remain over most of these regions, and daytime heating will likely aid in the development of moderate to strong instability along/south of a front. Some enhancement to the mid/upper-level west-northwesterly flow should support sufficient deep-layer shear for organized thunderstorms, and a conditionally favorable environment for severe thunderstorms remains apparent. Primary uncertainty remains overall convective coverage given generally weak large-scale ascent. Have therefore maintained the Marginal Risk for severe hail/wind across these regions with minimal changes. ...Eastern North Carolina... Weak upper troughing will advance eastward today across the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas as a surface cold front likewise moves slowly east-southeastward across these areas. Poor lapse rates aloft will likely limit updraft strength, and deep-layer shear is also expected to remain weak. While thunderstorms should develop through the afternoon along/ahead of the front across eastern NC and vicinity, the potential for damaging winds currently appears too limited to include low severe probabilities at this time. ..Gleason/Lyons.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...GREAT BASIN...AND UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the northern Rockies/High Plains, Great Basin, and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... Ample daytime heating is forecast today on the northern/western periphery of upper ridging centered over the Plains. Current expectations are that high-based thunderstorms will develop initially over the higher terrain of the northern Rockies, and subsequently spread east-northeastward through the evening. Even with low-level moisture and instability expected to remain modest/weak, a very well-mixed boundary layer will be in place across this region and the adjacent High Plains. Thunderstorm downdrafts will likely be able to efficiently mix modestly enhanced mid-level flow to the surface, and isolated severe gusts should occur with this activity as it moves across MT and vicinity through this evening. Confidence in a more concentrated corridor of severe winds was not high enough to include greater severe probabilities with this update. ...Great Basin... Modestly enhanced southerly flow will be present today over parts of the Great Basin in association with a decaying/weak upper trough/low over CA and the western Great Basin. While some cloud cover may limit diurnal heating and related steepening of low-level lapse rates to some extent this afternoon, it still appears probable that a generally well-mixed boundary layer will exist across much of NV into western UT. At least scattered thunderstorms should spread northward across these areas this afternoon/evening, with isolated severe wind gusts possible. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... As upper ridging builds over the Plains today, a shortwave trough over Ontario will dig southeastward and provide glancing large-scale ascent over parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. A seasonably moist low-level airmass is expected to remain over most of these regions, and daytime heating will likely aid in the development of moderate to strong instability along/south of a front. Some enhancement to the mid/upper-level west-northwesterly flow should support sufficient deep-layer shear for organized thunderstorms, and a conditionally favorable environment for severe thunderstorms remains apparent. Primary uncertainty remains overall convective coverage given generally weak large-scale ascent. Have therefore maintained the Marginal Risk for severe hail/wind across these regions with minimal changes. ...Eastern North Carolina... Weak upper troughing will advance eastward today across the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas as a surface cold front likewise moves slowly east-southeastward across these areas. Poor lapse rates aloft will likely limit updraft strength, and deep-layer shear is also expected to remain weak. While thunderstorms should develop through the afternoon along/ahead of the front across eastern NC and vicinity, the potential for damaging winds currently appears too limited to include low severe probabilities at this time. ..Gleason/Lyons.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...GREAT BASIN...AND UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the northern Rockies/High Plains, Great Basin, and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... Ample daytime heating is forecast today on the northern/western periphery of upper ridging centered over the Plains. Current expectations are that high-based thunderstorms will develop initially over the higher terrain of the northern Rockies, and subsequently spread east-northeastward through the evening. Even with low-level moisture and instability expected to remain modest/weak, a very well-mixed boundary layer will be in place across this region and the adjacent High Plains. Thunderstorm downdrafts will likely be able to efficiently mix modestly enhanced mid-level flow to the surface, and isolated severe gusts should occur with this activity as it moves across MT and vicinity through this evening. Confidence in a more concentrated corridor of severe winds was not high enough to include greater severe probabilities with this update. ...Great Basin... Modestly enhanced southerly flow will be present today over parts of the Great Basin in association with a decaying/weak upper trough/low over CA and the western Great Basin. While some cloud cover may limit diurnal heating and related steepening of low-level lapse rates to some extent this afternoon, it still appears probable that a generally well-mixed boundary layer will exist across much of NV into western UT. At least scattered thunderstorms should spread northward across these areas this afternoon/evening, with isolated severe wind gusts possible. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... As upper ridging builds over the Plains today, a shortwave trough over Ontario will dig southeastward and provide glancing large-scale ascent over parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. A seasonably moist low-level airmass is expected to remain over most of these regions, and daytime heating will likely aid in the development of moderate to strong instability along/south of a front. Some enhancement to the mid/upper-level west-northwesterly flow should support sufficient deep-layer shear for organized thunderstorms, and a conditionally favorable environment for severe thunderstorms remains apparent. Primary uncertainty remains overall convective coverage given generally weak large-scale ascent. Have therefore maintained the Marginal Risk for severe hail/wind across these regions with minimal changes. ...Eastern North Carolina... Weak upper troughing will advance eastward today across the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas as a surface cold front likewise moves slowly east-southeastward across these areas. Poor lapse rates aloft will likely limit updraft strength, and deep-layer shear is also expected to remain weak. While thunderstorms should develop through the afternoon along/ahead of the front across eastern NC and vicinity, the potential for damaging winds currently appears too limited to include low severe probabilities at this time. ..Gleason/Lyons.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...GREAT BASIN...AND UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the northern Rockies/High Plains, Great Basin, and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... Ample daytime heating is forecast today on the northern/western periphery of upper ridging centered over the Plains. Current expectations are that high-based thunderstorms will develop initially over the higher terrain of the northern Rockies, and subsequently spread east-northeastward through the evening. Even with low-level moisture and instability expected to remain modest/weak, a very well-mixed boundary layer will be in place across this region and the adjacent High Plains. Thunderstorm downdrafts will likely be able to efficiently mix modestly enhanced mid-level flow to the surface, and isolated severe gusts should occur with this activity as it moves across MT and vicinity through this evening. Confidence in a more concentrated corridor of severe winds was not high enough to include greater severe probabilities with this update. ...Great Basin... Modestly enhanced southerly flow will be present today over parts of the Great Basin in association with a decaying/weak upper trough/low over CA and the western Great Basin. While some cloud cover may limit diurnal heating and related steepening of low-level lapse rates to some extent this afternoon, it still appears probable that a generally well-mixed boundary layer will exist across much of NV into western UT. At least scattered thunderstorms should spread northward across these areas this afternoon/evening, with isolated severe wind gusts possible. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... As upper ridging builds over the Plains today, a shortwave trough over Ontario will dig southeastward and provide glancing large-scale ascent over parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. A seasonably moist low-level airmass is expected to remain over most of these regions, and daytime heating will likely aid in the development of moderate to strong instability along/south of a front. Some enhancement to the mid/upper-level west-northwesterly flow should support sufficient deep-layer shear for organized thunderstorms, and a conditionally favorable environment for severe thunderstorms remains apparent. Primary uncertainty remains overall convective coverage given generally weak large-scale ascent. Have therefore maintained the Marginal Risk for severe hail/wind across these regions with minimal changes. ...Eastern North Carolina... Weak upper troughing will advance eastward today across the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas as a surface cold front likewise moves slowly east-southeastward across these areas. Poor lapse rates aloft will likely limit updraft strength, and deep-layer shear is also expected to remain weak. While thunderstorms should develop through the afternoon along/ahead of the front across eastern NC and vicinity, the potential for damaging winds currently appears too limited to include low severe probabilities at this time. ..Gleason/Lyons.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...GREAT BASIN...AND UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the northern Rockies/High Plains, Great Basin, and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... Ample daytime heating is forecast today on the northern/western periphery of upper ridging centered over the Plains. Current expectations are that high-based thunderstorms will develop initially over the higher terrain of the northern Rockies, and subsequently spread east-northeastward through the evening. Even with low-level moisture and instability expected to remain modest/weak, a very well-mixed boundary layer will be in place across this region and the adjacent High Plains. Thunderstorm downdrafts will likely be able to efficiently mix modestly enhanced mid-level flow to the surface, and isolated severe gusts should occur with this activity as it moves across MT and vicinity through this evening. Confidence in a more concentrated corridor of severe winds was not high enough to include greater severe probabilities with this update. ...Great Basin... Modestly enhanced southerly flow will be present today over parts of the Great Basin in association with a decaying/weak upper trough/low over CA and the western Great Basin. While some cloud cover may limit diurnal heating and related steepening of low-level lapse rates to some extent this afternoon, it still appears probable that a generally well-mixed boundary layer will exist across much of NV into western UT. At least scattered thunderstorms should spread northward across these areas this afternoon/evening, with isolated severe wind gusts possible. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... As upper ridging builds over the Plains today, a shortwave trough over Ontario will dig southeastward and provide glancing large-scale ascent over parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. A seasonably moist low-level airmass is expected to remain over most of these regions, and daytime heating will likely aid in the development of moderate to strong instability along/south of a front. Some enhancement to the mid/upper-level west-northwesterly flow should support sufficient deep-layer shear for organized thunderstorms, and a conditionally favorable environment for severe thunderstorms remains apparent. Primary uncertainty remains overall convective coverage given generally weak large-scale ascent. Have therefore maintained the Marginal Risk for severe hail/wind across these regions with minimal changes. ...Eastern North Carolina... Weak upper troughing will advance eastward today across the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas as a surface cold front likewise moves slowly east-southeastward across these areas. Poor lapse rates aloft will likely limit updraft strength, and deep-layer shear is also expected to remain weak. While thunderstorms should develop through the afternoon along/ahead of the front across eastern NC and vicinity, the potential for damaging winds currently appears too limited to include low severe probabilities at this time. ..Gleason/Lyons.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...GREAT BASIN...AND UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the northern Rockies/High Plains, Great Basin, and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... Ample daytime heating is forecast today on the northern/western periphery of upper ridging centered over the Plains. Current expectations are that high-based thunderstorms will develop initially over the higher terrain of the northern Rockies, and subsequently spread east-northeastward through the evening. Even with low-level moisture and instability expected to remain modest/weak, a very well-mixed boundary layer will be in place across this region and the adjacent High Plains. Thunderstorm downdrafts will likely be able to efficiently mix modestly enhanced mid-level flow to the surface, and isolated severe gusts should occur with this activity as it moves across MT and vicinity through this evening. Confidence in a more concentrated corridor of severe winds was not high enough to include greater severe probabilities with this update. ...Great Basin... Modestly enhanced southerly flow will be present today over parts of the Great Basin in association with a decaying/weak upper trough/low over CA and the western Great Basin. While some cloud cover may limit diurnal heating and related steepening of low-level lapse rates to some extent this afternoon, it still appears probable that a generally well-mixed boundary layer will exist across much of NV into western UT. At least scattered thunderstorms should spread northward across these areas this afternoon/evening, with isolated severe wind gusts possible. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... As upper ridging builds over the Plains today, a shortwave trough over Ontario will dig southeastward and provide glancing large-scale ascent over parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. A seasonably moist low-level airmass is expected to remain over most of these regions, and daytime heating will likely aid in the development of moderate to strong instability along/south of a front. Some enhancement to the mid/upper-level west-northwesterly flow should support sufficient deep-layer shear for organized thunderstorms, and a conditionally favorable environment for severe thunderstorms remains apparent. Primary uncertainty remains overall convective coverage given generally weak large-scale ascent. Have therefore maintained the Marginal Risk for severe hail/wind across these regions with minimal changes. ...Eastern North Carolina... Weak upper troughing will advance eastward today across the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas as a surface cold front likewise moves slowly east-southeastward across these areas. Poor lapse rates aloft will likely limit updraft strength, and deep-layer shear is also expected to remain weak. While thunderstorms should develop through the afternoon along/ahead of the front across eastern NC and vicinity, the potential for damaging winds currently appears too limited to include low severe probabilities at this time. ..Gleason/Lyons.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...GREAT BASIN...AND UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the northern Rockies/High Plains, Great Basin, and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... Ample daytime heating is forecast today on the northern/western periphery of upper ridging centered over the Plains. Current expectations are that high-based thunderstorms will develop initially over the higher terrain of the northern Rockies, and subsequently spread east-northeastward through the evening. Even with low-level moisture and instability expected to remain modest/weak, a very well-mixed boundary layer will be in place across this region and the adjacent High Plains. Thunderstorm downdrafts will likely be able to efficiently mix modestly enhanced mid-level flow to the surface, and isolated severe gusts should occur with this activity as it moves across MT and vicinity through this evening. Confidence in a more concentrated corridor of severe winds was not high enough to include greater severe probabilities with this update. ...Great Basin... Modestly enhanced southerly flow will be present today over parts of the Great Basin in association with a decaying/weak upper trough/low over CA and the western Great Basin. While some cloud cover may limit diurnal heating and related steepening of low-level lapse rates to some extent this afternoon, it still appears probable that a generally well-mixed boundary layer will exist across much of NV into western UT. At least scattered thunderstorms should spread northward across these areas this afternoon/evening, with isolated severe wind gusts possible. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... As upper ridging builds over the Plains today, a shortwave trough over Ontario will dig southeastward and provide glancing large-scale ascent over parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. A seasonably moist low-level airmass is expected to remain over most of these regions, and daytime heating will likely aid in the development of moderate to strong instability along/south of a front. Some enhancement to the mid/upper-level west-northwesterly flow should support sufficient deep-layer shear for organized thunderstorms, and a conditionally favorable environment for severe thunderstorms remains apparent. Primary uncertainty remains overall convective coverage given generally weak large-scale ascent. Have therefore maintained the Marginal Risk for severe hail/wind across these regions with minimal changes. ...Eastern North Carolina... Weak upper troughing will advance eastward today across the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas as a surface cold front likewise moves slowly east-southeastward across these areas. Poor lapse rates aloft will likely limit updraft strength, and deep-layer shear is also expected to remain weak. While thunderstorms should develop through the afternoon along/ahead of the front across eastern NC and vicinity, the potential for damaging winds currently appears too limited to include low severe probabilities at this time. ..Gleason/Lyons.. 07/02/2025 Read more

WW 0482 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 482 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E SNY TO 30 WNW VTN. ..SPC..07/02/25 ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 482 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC005-017-031-049-069-075-091-101-103-117-149-171-020440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BROWN CHERRY DEUEL GARDEN GRANT HOOKER KEITH KEYA PAHA MCPHERSON ROCK THOMAS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0482 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 482 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E SNY TO 30 WNW VTN. ..SPC..07/02/25 ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 482 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC005-017-031-049-069-075-091-101-103-117-149-171-020440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BROWN CHERRY DEUEL GARDEN GRANT HOOKER KEITH KEYA PAHA MCPHERSON ROCK THOMAS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 482 SEVERE TSTM NE SD WY 012205Z - 020500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 482 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 405 PM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Nebraska Western South Dakota Northeast Wyoming * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 405 PM until 1100 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered severe storm development, potentially including a couple of high-based supercells, is expected regionally through early evening, with the possibility that a loosely organized cluster could evolve later this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles north of Rapid City SD to 50 miles east of Sidney NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 481... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Guyer Read more

MD 1538 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 482... FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WESTERN NEBRASKA...AND EASTERN WYOMING
Mesoscale Discussion 1538 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Areas affected...portions of western South Dakota...western Nebraska...and eastern Wyoming Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 482... Valid 020043Z - 020215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 482 continues. SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms, including a few supercells are ongoing and expected to continue this evening. Large hail and damaging winds are likely to continue. DISCUSSION...Across WW 482, several clusters of severe storms are ongoing and expected to continue this evening. Several supercells have organized across southern SD with reports of hail and damaging gusts. The environment downstream remains favorable for supercells with 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE and 30-40 kt of bulk shear. Hail appears to be the most likely threat given the supercell mode. However, some upscale growth has already been noted, and is expected to continue this evening with consolidating outflows. This would support an increasing risk for damaging winds, given MLCL height of 1700-2000 m and DCAPE of 1500+ J/kg. Additional strong to occasional severe storms may continue across western SD and far southeast MT. With less buoyancy and increasing MLCINH, confidence in a sustained severe risk is lower but hail and damaging gusts remain possible. ..Lyons.. 07/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 44940474 45040166 43720023 42040028 41110062 40920207 40870286 41120327 41210336 44940474 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more