Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday. ...Dakotas and Upper Midwest... The band of primary westerly flow will be relegated to the northern tier of states on Friday, with a pronounced shortwave trough moving across southern SK/MT and into the northern Plains. Models are in general consensus that scattered afternoon thunderstorms will develop along the associated cold front over the eastern Dakotas. Relatively warm/moist and unstable conditions ahead of the front, coupled with favorable westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of severe storms capable of damaging winds and some hail. There remain differences between the various 12z model solutions regarding timing and intensity of the approaching trough. This lends sufficient uncertainty to the corridor of greatest concern to maintain only MRGL risk at this time. However, parts of the area will likely need upgraded in later outlooks as details become clearer. ...ID/MT... A strong shortwave trough will track into the western states on Friday, promoting scattered afternoon thunderstorm development over parts of the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. There is some concern for a few storms capable of damaging winds and hail over the region Friday evening, but model solutions remain to diverse to add a risk area at this time. ..Hart.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday. ...Dakotas and Upper Midwest... The band of primary westerly flow will be relegated to the northern tier of states on Friday, with a pronounced shortwave trough moving across southern SK/MT and into the northern Plains. Models are in general consensus that scattered afternoon thunderstorms will develop along the associated cold front over the eastern Dakotas. Relatively warm/moist and unstable conditions ahead of the front, coupled with favorable westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of severe storms capable of damaging winds and some hail. There remain differences between the various 12z model solutions regarding timing and intensity of the approaching trough. This lends sufficient uncertainty to the corridor of greatest concern to maintain only MRGL risk at this time. However, parts of the area will likely need upgraded in later outlooks as details become clearer. ...ID/MT... A strong shortwave trough will track into the western states on Friday, promoting scattered afternoon thunderstorm development over parts of the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. There is some concern for a few storms capable of damaging winds and hail over the region Friday evening, but model solutions remain to diverse to add a risk area at this time. ..Hart.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday. ...Dakotas and Upper Midwest... The band of primary westerly flow will be relegated to the northern tier of states on Friday, with a pronounced shortwave trough moving across southern SK/MT and into the northern Plains. Models are in general consensus that scattered afternoon thunderstorms will develop along the associated cold front over the eastern Dakotas. Relatively warm/moist and unstable conditions ahead of the front, coupled with favorable westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of severe storms capable of damaging winds and some hail. There remain differences between the various 12z model solutions regarding timing and intensity of the approaching trough. This lends sufficient uncertainty to the corridor of greatest concern to maintain only MRGL risk at this time. However, parts of the area will likely need upgraded in later outlooks as details become clearer. ...ID/MT... A strong shortwave trough will track into the western states on Friday, promoting scattered afternoon thunderstorm development over parts of the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. There is some concern for a few storms capable of damaging winds and hail over the region Friday evening, but model solutions remain to diverse to add a risk area at this time. ..Hart.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday. ...Dakotas and Upper Midwest... The band of primary westerly flow will be relegated to the northern tier of states on Friday, with a pronounced shortwave trough moving across southern SK/MT and into the northern Plains. Models are in general consensus that scattered afternoon thunderstorms will develop along the associated cold front over the eastern Dakotas. Relatively warm/moist and unstable conditions ahead of the front, coupled with favorable westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of severe storms capable of damaging winds and some hail. There remain differences between the various 12z model solutions regarding timing and intensity of the approaching trough. This lends sufficient uncertainty to the corridor of greatest concern to maintain only MRGL risk at this time. However, parts of the area will likely need upgraded in later outlooks as details become clearer. ...ID/MT... A strong shortwave trough will track into the western states on Friday, promoting scattered afternoon thunderstorm development over parts of the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. There is some concern for a few storms capable of damaging winds and hail over the region Friday evening, but model solutions remain to diverse to add a risk area at this time. ..Hart.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday. ...Dakotas and Upper Midwest... The band of primary westerly flow will be relegated to the northern tier of states on Friday, with a pronounced shortwave trough moving across southern SK/MT and into the northern Plains. Models are in general consensus that scattered afternoon thunderstorms will develop along the associated cold front over the eastern Dakotas. Relatively warm/moist and unstable conditions ahead of the front, coupled with favorable westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of severe storms capable of damaging winds and some hail. There remain differences between the various 12z model solutions regarding timing and intensity of the approaching trough. This lends sufficient uncertainty to the corridor of greatest concern to maintain only MRGL risk at this time. However, parts of the area will likely need upgraded in later outlooks as details become clearer. ...ID/MT... A strong shortwave trough will track into the western states on Friday, promoting scattered afternoon thunderstorm development over parts of the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. There is some concern for a few storms capable of damaging winds and hail over the region Friday evening, but model solutions remain to diverse to add a risk area at this time. ..Hart.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday. ...Dakotas and Upper Midwest... The band of primary westerly flow will be relegated to the northern tier of states on Friday, with a pronounced shortwave trough moving across southern SK/MT and into the northern Plains. Models are in general consensus that scattered afternoon thunderstorms will develop along the associated cold front over the eastern Dakotas. Relatively warm/moist and unstable conditions ahead of the front, coupled with favorable westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of severe storms capable of damaging winds and some hail. There remain differences between the various 12z model solutions regarding timing and intensity of the approaching trough. This lends sufficient uncertainty to the corridor of greatest concern to maintain only MRGL risk at this time. However, parts of the area will likely need upgraded in later outlooks as details become clearer. ...ID/MT... A strong shortwave trough will track into the western states on Friday, promoting scattered afternoon thunderstorm development over parts of the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. There is some concern for a few storms capable of damaging winds and hail over the region Friday evening, but model solutions remain to diverse to add a risk area at this time. ..Hart.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday. ...Dakotas and Upper Midwest... The band of primary westerly flow will be relegated to the northern tier of states on Friday, with a pronounced shortwave trough moving across southern SK/MT and into the northern Plains. Models are in general consensus that scattered afternoon thunderstorms will develop along the associated cold front over the eastern Dakotas. Relatively warm/moist and unstable conditions ahead of the front, coupled with favorable westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of severe storms capable of damaging winds and some hail. There remain differences between the various 12z model solutions regarding timing and intensity of the approaching trough. This lends sufficient uncertainty to the corridor of greatest concern to maintain only MRGL risk at this time. However, parts of the area will likely need upgraded in later outlooks as details become clearer. ...ID/MT... A strong shortwave trough will track into the western states on Friday, promoting scattered afternoon thunderstorm development over parts of the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. There is some concern for a few storms capable of damaging winds and hail over the region Friday evening, but model solutions remain to diverse to add a risk area at this time. ..Hart.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday. ...Dakotas and Upper Midwest... The band of primary westerly flow will be relegated to the northern tier of states on Friday, with a pronounced shortwave trough moving across southern SK/MT and into the northern Plains. Models are in general consensus that scattered afternoon thunderstorms will develop along the associated cold front over the eastern Dakotas. Relatively warm/moist and unstable conditions ahead of the front, coupled with favorable westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of severe storms capable of damaging winds and some hail. There remain differences between the various 12z model solutions regarding timing and intensity of the approaching trough. This lends sufficient uncertainty to the corridor of greatest concern to maintain only MRGL risk at this time. However, parts of the area will likely need upgraded in later outlooks as details become clearer. ...ID/MT... A strong shortwave trough will track into the western states on Friday, promoting scattered afternoon thunderstorm development over parts of the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. There is some concern for a few storms capable of damaging winds and hail over the region Friday evening, but model solutions remain to diverse to add a risk area at this time. ..Hart.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday. ...Dakotas and Upper Midwest... The band of primary westerly flow will be relegated to the northern tier of states on Friday, with a pronounced shortwave trough moving across southern SK/MT and into the northern Plains. Models are in general consensus that scattered afternoon thunderstorms will develop along the associated cold front over the eastern Dakotas. Relatively warm/moist and unstable conditions ahead of the front, coupled with favorable westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of severe storms capable of damaging winds and some hail. There remain differences between the various 12z model solutions regarding timing and intensity of the approaching trough. This lends sufficient uncertainty to the corridor of greatest concern to maintain only MRGL risk at this time. However, parts of the area will likely need upgraded in later outlooks as details become clearer. ...ID/MT... A strong shortwave trough will track into the western states on Friday, promoting scattered afternoon thunderstorm development over parts of the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. There is some concern for a few storms capable of damaging winds and hail over the region Friday evening, but model solutions remain to diverse to add a risk area at this time. ..Hart.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday. ...Dakotas and Upper Midwest... The band of primary westerly flow will be relegated to the northern tier of states on Friday, with a pronounced shortwave trough moving across southern SK/MT and into the northern Plains. Models are in general consensus that scattered afternoon thunderstorms will develop along the associated cold front over the eastern Dakotas. Relatively warm/moist and unstable conditions ahead of the front, coupled with favorable westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of severe storms capable of damaging winds and some hail. There remain differences between the various 12z model solutions regarding timing and intensity of the approaching trough. This lends sufficient uncertainty to the corridor of greatest concern to maintain only MRGL risk at this time. However, parts of the area will likely need upgraded in later outlooks as details become clearer. ...ID/MT... A strong shortwave trough will track into the western states on Friday, promoting scattered afternoon thunderstorm development over parts of the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. There is some concern for a few storms capable of damaging winds and hail over the region Friday evening, but model solutions remain to diverse to add a risk area at this time. ..Hart.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday. ...Dakotas and Upper Midwest... The band of primary westerly flow will be relegated to the northern tier of states on Friday, with a pronounced shortwave trough moving across southern SK/MT and into the northern Plains. Models are in general consensus that scattered afternoon thunderstorms will develop along the associated cold front over the eastern Dakotas. Relatively warm/moist and unstable conditions ahead of the front, coupled with favorable westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of severe storms capable of damaging winds and some hail. There remain differences between the various 12z model solutions regarding timing and intensity of the approaching trough. This lends sufficient uncertainty to the corridor of greatest concern to maintain only MRGL risk at this time. However, parts of the area will likely need upgraded in later outlooks as details become clearer. ...ID/MT... A strong shortwave trough will track into the western states on Friday, promoting scattered afternoon thunderstorm development over parts of the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. There is some concern for a few storms capable of damaging winds and hail over the region Friday evening, but model solutions remain to diverse to add a risk area at this time. ..Hart.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST US...AND OVER PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of severe wind gusts and hail are forecast across the Northeast US and North Dakota on Thursday. ...Northeast... A shortwave trough currently over western Ontario will track southeastward across the Great Lakes on Thursday. Increasing large scale forcing will overspread parts of PA/NY and New England through the day, promoting afternoon thunderstorm development along an approaching cold front. A warm/humid air mass will be present ahead of the front, with steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE to pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and perhaps some hail. Given trends in 12z model guidance regarding thunderstorm coverage, have added a SLGT risk for portions of the region. ...ND... A prominent mid-level ridge will be established over the central US tomorrow. Model guidance suggests a subtle shortwave trough will track into eastern MT during the afternoon and top the ridge overnight. Southerly low-level winds will help to draw moisture northward into ND by late afternoon, resulting in a reservoir of strong instability. Thunderstorms are expected to develop over western ND posing a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Several 12z HREF members suggest the risk of upscale growth and a bowing MCS tracking eastward across ND overnight. ...Upper MS Valley... A weak/diffuse low-level baroclinic zone will extend from southeast MN into IL on Thursday. Strengthening southwesterly low-level winds will enhance warm advection by early evening, leading to scattered thunderstorms. A few of these storms could be strong, posing a risk of gusty winds and hail. ..Hart.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST US...AND OVER PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of severe wind gusts and hail are forecast across the Northeast US and North Dakota on Thursday. ...Northeast... A shortwave trough currently over western Ontario will track southeastward across the Great Lakes on Thursday. Increasing large scale forcing will overspread parts of PA/NY and New England through the day, promoting afternoon thunderstorm development along an approaching cold front. A warm/humid air mass will be present ahead of the front, with steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE to pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and perhaps some hail. Given trends in 12z model guidance regarding thunderstorm coverage, have added a SLGT risk for portions of the region. ...ND... A prominent mid-level ridge will be established over the central US tomorrow. Model guidance suggests a subtle shortwave trough will track into eastern MT during the afternoon and top the ridge overnight. Southerly low-level winds will help to draw moisture northward into ND by late afternoon, resulting in a reservoir of strong instability. Thunderstorms are expected to develop over western ND posing a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Several 12z HREF members suggest the risk of upscale growth and a bowing MCS tracking eastward across ND overnight. ...Upper MS Valley... A weak/diffuse low-level baroclinic zone will extend from southeast MN into IL on Thursday. Strengthening southwesterly low-level winds will enhance warm advection by early evening, leading to scattered thunderstorms. A few of these storms could be strong, posing a risk of gusty winds and hail. ..Hart.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST US...AND OVER PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of severe wind gusts and hail are forecast across the Northeast US and North Dakota on Thursday. ...Northeast... A shortwave trough currently over western Ontario will track southeastward across the Great Lakes on Thursday. Increasing large scale forcing will overspread parts of PA/NY and New England through the day, promoting afternoon thunderstorm development along an approaching cold front. A warm/humid air mass will be present ahead of the front, with steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE to pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and perhaps some hail. Given trends in 12z model guidance regarding thunderstorm coverage, have added a SLGT risk for portions of the region. ...ND... A prominent mid-level ridge will be established over the central US tomorrow. Model guidance suggests a subtle shortwave trough will track into eastern MT during the afternoon and top the ridge overnight. Southerly low-level winds will help to draw moisture northward into ND by late afternoon, resulting in a reservoir of strong instability. Thunderstorms are expected to develop over western ND posing a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Several 12z HREF members suggest the risk of upscale growth and a bowing MCS tracking eastward across ND overnight. ...Upper MS Valley... A weak/diffuse low-level baroclinic zone will extend from southeast MN into IL on Thursday. Strengthening southwesterly low-level winds will enhance warm advection by early evening, leading to scattered thunderstorms. A few of these storms could be strong, posing a risk of gusty winds and hail. ..Hart.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST US...AND OVER PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of severe wind gusts and hail are forecast across the Northeast US and North Dakota on Thursday. ...Northeast... A shortwave trough currently over western Ontario will track southeastward across the Great Lakes on Thursday. Increasing large scale forcing will overspread parts of PA/NY and New England through the day, promoting afternoon thunderstorm development along an approaching cold front. A warm/humid air mass will be present ahead of the front, with steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE to pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and perhaps some hail. Given trends in 12z model guidance regarding thunderstorm coverage, have added a SLGT risk for portions of the region. ...ND... A prominent mid-level ridge will be established over the central US tomorrow. Model guidance suggests a subtle shortwave trough will track into eastern MT during the afternoon and top the ridge overnight. Southerly low-level winds will help to draw moisture northward into ND by late afternoon, resulting in a reservoir of strong instability. Thunderstorms are expected to develop over western ND posing a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Several 12z HREF members suggest the risk of upscale growth and a bowing MCS tracking eastward across ND overnight. ...Upper MS Valley... A weak/diffuse low-level baroclinic zone will extend from southeast MN into IL on Thursday. Strengthening southwesterly low-level winds will enhance warm advection by early evening, leading to scattered thunderstorms. A few of these storms could be strong, posing a risk of gusty winds and hail. ..Hart.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST US...AND OVER PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of severe wind gusts and hail are forecast across the Northeast US and North Dakota on Thursday. ...Northeast... A shortwave trough currently over western Ontario will track southeastward across the Great Lakes on Thursday. Increasing large scale forcing will overspread parts of PA/NY and New England through the day, promoting afternoon thunderstorm development along an approaching cold front. A warm/humid air mass will be present ahead of the front, with steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE to pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and perhaps some hail. Given trends in 12z model guidance regarding thunderstorm coverage, have added a SLGT risk for portions of the region. ...ND... A prominent mid-level ridge will be established over the central US tomorrow. Model guidance suggests a subtle shortwave trough will track into eastern MT during the afternoon and top the ridge overnight. Southerly low-level winds will help to draw moisture northward into ND by late afternoon, resulting in a reservoir of strong instability. Thunderstorms are expected to develop over western ND posing a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Several 12z HREF members suggest the risk of upscale growth and a bowing MCS tracking eastward across ND overnight. ...Upper MS Valley... A weak/diffuse low-level baroclinic zone will extend from southeast MN into IL on Thursday. Strengthening southwesterly low-level winds will enhance warm advection by early evening, leading to scattered thunderstorms. A few of these storms could be strong, posing a risk of gusty winds and hail. ..Hart.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST US...AND OVER PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of severe wind gusts and hail are forecast across the Northeast US and North Dakota on Thursday. ...Northeast... A shortwave trough currently over western Ontario will track southeastward across the Great Lakes on Thursday. Increasing large scale forcing will overspread parts of PA/NY and New England through the day, promoting afternoon thunderstorm development along an approaching cold front. A warm/humid air mass will be present ahead of the front, with steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE to pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and perhaps some hail. Given trends in 12z model guidance regarding thunderstorm coverage, have added a SLGT risk for portions of the region. ...ND... A prominent mid-level ridge will be established over the central US tomorrow. Model guidance suggests a subtle shortwave trough will track into eastern MT during the afternoon and top the ridge overnight. Southerly low-level winds will help to draw moisture northward into ND by late afternoon, resulting in a reservoir of strong instability. Thunderstorms are expected to develop over western ND posing a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Several 12z HREF members suggest the risk of upscale growth and a bowing MCS tracking eastward across ND overnight. ...Upper MS Valley... A weak/diffuse low-level baroclinic zone will extend from southeast MN into IL on Thursday. Strengthening southwesterly low-level winds will enhance warm advection by early evening, leading to scattered thunderstorms. A few of these storms could be strong, posing a risk of gusty winds and hail. ..Hart.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST US...AND OVER PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of severe wind gusts and hail are forecast across the Northeast US and North Dakota on Thursday. ...Northeast... A shortwave trough currently over western Ontario will track southeastward across the Great Lakes on Thursday. Increasing large scale forcing will overspread parts of PA/NY and New England through the day, promoting afternoon thunderstorm development along an approaching cold front. A warm/humid air mass will be present ahead of the front, with steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE to pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and perhaps some hail. Given trends in 12z model guidance regarding thunderstorm coverage, have added a SLGT risk for portions of the region. ...ND... A prominent mid-level ridge will be established over the central US tomorrow. Model guidance suggests a subtle shortwave trough will track into eastern MT during the afternoon and top the ridge overnight. Southerly low-level winds will help to draw moisture northward into ND by late afternoon, resulting in a reservoir of strong instability. Thunderstorms are expected to develop over western ND posing a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Several 12z HREF members suggest the risk of upscale growth and a bowing MCS tracking eastward across ND overnight. ...Upper MS Valley... A weak/diffuse low-level baroclinic zone will extend from southeast MN into IL on Thursday. Strengthening southwesterly low-level winds will enhance warm advection by early evening, leading to scattered thunderstorms. A few of these storms could be strong, posing a risk of gusty winds and hail. ..Hart.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST US...AND OVER PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of severe wind gusts and hail are forecast across the Northeast US and North Dakota on Thursday. ...Northeast... A shortwave trough currently over western Ontario will track southeastward across the Great Lakes on Thursday. Increasing large scale forcing will overspread parts of PA/NY and New England through the day, promoting afternoon thunderstorm development along an approaching cold front. A warm/humid air mass will be present ahead of the front, with steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE to pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and perhaps some hail. Given trends in 12z model guidance regarding thunderstorm coverage, have added a SLGT risk for portions of the region. ...ND... A prominent mid-level ridge will be established over the central US tomorrow. Model guidance suggests a subtle shortwave trough will track into eastern MT during the afternoon and top the ridge overnight. Southerly low-level winds will help to draw moisture northward into ND by late afternoon, resulting in a reservoir of strong instability. Thunderstorms are expected to develop over western ND posing a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Several 12z HREF members suggest the risk of upscale growth and a bowing MCS tracking eastward across ND overnight. ...Upper MS Valley... A weak/diffuse low-level baroclinic zone will extend from southeast MN into IL on Thursday. Strengthening southwesterly low-level winds will enhance warm advection by early evening, leading to scattered thunderstorms. A few of these storms could be strong, posing a risk of gusty winds and hail. ..Hart.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST US...AND OVER PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of severe wind gusts and hail are forecast across the Northeast US and North Dakota on Thursday. ...Northeast... A shortwave trough currently over western Ontario will track southeastward across the Great Lakes on Thursday. Increasing large scale forcing will overspread parts of PA/NY and New England through the day, promoting afternoon thunderstorm development along an approaching cold front. A warm/humid air mass will be present ahead of the front, with steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE to pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and perhaps some hail. Given trends in 12z model guidance regarding thunderstorm coverage, have added a SLGT risk for portions of the region. ...ND... A prominent mid-level ridge will be established over the central US tomorrow. Model guidance suggests a subtle shortwave trough will track into eastern MT during the afternoon and top the ridge overnight. Southerly low-level winds will help to draw moisture northward into ND by late afternoon, resulting in a reservoir of strong instability. Thunderstorms are expected to develop over western ND posing a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Several 12z HREF members suggest the risk of upscale growth and a bowing MCS tracking eastward across ND overnight. ...Upper MS Valley... A weak/diffuse low-level baroclinic zone will extend from southeast MN into IL on Thursday. Strengthening southwesterly low-level winds will enhance warm advection by early evening, leading to scattered thunderstorms. A few of these storms could be strong, posing a risk of gusty winds and hail. ..Hart.. 07/02/2025 Read more