SPC Jul 2, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 months 1 week ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...GREAT BASIN...AND UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the northern Rockies/High Plains, Great Basin, and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... Ample daytime heating is forecast today on the northern/western periphery of upper ridging centered over the Plains. Current expectations are that high-based thunderstorms will develop initially over the higher terrain of the northern Rockies, and subsequently spread east-northeastward through the evening. Even with low-level moisture and instability expected to remain modest/weak, a very well-mixed boundary layer will be in place across this region and the adjacent High Plains. Thunderstorm downdrafts will likely be able to efficiently mix modestly enhanced mid-level flow to the surface, and isolated severe gusts should occur with this activity as it moves across MT and vicinity through this evening. Confidence in a more concentrated corridor of severe winds was not high enough to include greater severe probabilities with this update. ...Great Basin... Modestly enhanced southerly flow will be present today over parts of the Great Basin in association with a decaying/weak upper trough/low over CA and the western Great Basin. While some cloud cover may limit diurnal heating and related steepening of low-level lapse rates to some extent this afternoon, it still appears probable that a generally well-mixed boundary layer will exist across much of NV into western UT. At least scattered thunderstorms should spread northward across these areas this afternoon/evening, with isolated severe wind gusts possible. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... As upper ridging builds over the Plains today, a shortwave trough over Ontario will dig southeastward and provide glancing large-scale ascent over parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. A seasonably moist low-level airmass is expected to remain over most of these regions, and daytime heating will likely aid in the development of moderate to strong instability along/south of a front. Some enhancement to the mid/upper-level west-northwesterly flow should support sufficient deep-layer shear for organized thunderstorms, and a conditionally favorable environment for severe thunderstorms remains apparent. Primary uncertainty remains overall convective coverage given generally weak large-scale ascent. Have therefore maintained the Marginal Risk for severe hail/wind across these regions with minimal changes. ...Eastern North Carolina... Weak upper troughing will advance eastward today across the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas as a surface cold front likewise moves slowly east-southeastward across these areas. Poor lapse rates aloft will likely limit updraft strength, and deep-layer shear is also expected to remain weak. While thunderstorms should develop through the afternoon along/ahead of the front across eastern NC and vicinity, the potential for damaging winds currently appears too limited to include low severe probabilities at this time. ..Gleason/Lyons.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 2, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 months 1 week ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...GREAT BASIN...AND UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the northern Rockies/High Plains, Great Basin, and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... Ample daytime heating is forecast today on the northern/western periphery of upper ridging centered over the Plains. Current expectations are that high-based thunderstorms will develop initially over the higher terrain of the northern Rockies, and subsequently spread east-northeastward through the evening. Even with low-level moisture and instability expected to remain modest/weak, a very well-mixed boundary layer will be in place across this region and the adjacent High Plains. Thunderstorm downdrafts will likely be able to efficiently mix modestly enhanced mid-level flow to the surface, and isolated severe gusts should occur with this activity as it moves across MT and vicinity through this evening. Confidence in a more concentrated corridor of severe winds was not high enough to include greater severe probabilities with this update. ...Great Basin... Modestly enhanced southerly flow will be present today over parts of the Great Basin in association with a decaying/weak upper trough/low over CA and the western Great Basin. While some cloud cover may limit diurnal heating and related steepening of low-level lapse rates to some extent this afternoon, it still appears probable that a generally well-mixed boundary layer will exist across much of NV into western UT. At least scattered thunderstorms should spread northward across these areas this afternoon/evening, with isolated severe wind gusts possible. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... As upper ridging builds over the Plains today, a shortwave trough over Ontario will dig southeastward and provide glancing large-scale ascent over parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. A seasonably moist low-level airmass is expected to remain over most of these regions, and daytime heating will likely aid in the development of moderate to strong instability along/south of a front. Some enhancement to the mid/upper-level west-northwesterly flow should support sufficient deep-layer shear for organized thunderstorms, and a conditionally favorable environment for severe thunderstorms remains apparent. Primary uncertainty remains overall convective coverage given generally weak large-scale ascent. Have therefore maintained the Marginal Risk for severe hail/wind across these regions with minimal changes. ...Eastern North Carolina... Weak upper troughing will advance eastward today across the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas as a surface cold front likewise moves slowly east-southeastward across these areas. Poor lapse rates aloft will likely limit updraft strength, and deep-layer shear is also expected to remain weak. While thunderstorms should develop through the afternoon along/ahead of the front across eastern NC and vicinity, the potential for damaging winds currently appears too limited to include low severe probabilities at this time. ..Gleason/Lyons.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 482 Status Reports

2 months 1 week ago
WW 0482 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 482 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E SNY TO 30 WNW VTN. ..SPC..07/02/25 ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 482 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC005-017-031-049-069-075-091-101-103-117-149-171-020440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BROWN CHERRY DEUEL GARDEN GRANT HOOKER KEITH KEYA PAHA MCPHERSON ROCK THOMAS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 482 Status Reports

2 months 1 week ago
WW 0482 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 482 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E SNY TO 30 WNW VTN. ..SPC..07/02/25 ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 482 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC005-017-031-049-069-075-091-101-103-117-149-171-020440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BROWN CHERRY DEUEL GARDEN GRANT HOOKER KEITH KEYA PAHA MCPHERSON ROCK THOMAS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 482

2 months 1 week ago
WW 482 SEVERE TSTM NE SD WY 012205Z - 020500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 482 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 405 PM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Nebraska Western South Dakota Northeast Wyoming * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 405 PM until 1100 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered severe storm development, potentially including a couple of high-based supercells, is expected regionally through early evening, with the possibility that a loosely organized cluster could evolve later this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles north of Rapid City SD to 50 miles east of Sidney NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 481... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Guyer Read more

SPC MD 1538

2 months 1 week ago
MD 1538 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 482... FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WESTERN NEBRASKA...AND EASTERN WYOMING
Mesoscale Discussion 1538 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Areas affected...portions of western South Dakota...western Nebraska...and eastern Wyoming Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 482... Valid 020043Z - 020215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 482 continues. SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms, including a few supercells are ongoing and expected to continue this evening. Large hail and damaging winds are likely to continue. DISCUSSION...Across WW 482, several clusters of severe storms are ongoing and expected to continue this evening. Several supercells have organized across southern SD with reports of hail and damaging gusts. The environment downstream remains favorable for supercells with 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE and 30-40 kt of bulk shear. Hail appears to be the most likely threat given the supercell mode. However, some upscale growth has already been noted, and is expected to continue this evening with consolidating outflows. This would support an increasing risk for damaging winds, given MLCL height of 1700-2000 m and DCAPE of 1500+ J/kg. Additional strong to occasional severe storms may continue across western SD and far southeast MT. With less buoyancy and increasing MLCINH, confidence in a sustained severe risk is lower but hail and damaging gusts remain possible. ..Lyons.. 07/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 44940474 45040166 43720023 42040028 41110062 40920207 40870286 41120327 41210336 44940474 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 482 Status Reports

2 months 1 week ago
WW 0482 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 482 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E SNY TO 40 SW 2WX. ..LYONS..07/02/25 ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 482 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC005-013-031-045-049-069-075-091-101-117-123-161-171-020340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BOX BUTTE CHERRY DAWES DEUEL GARDEN GRANT HOOKER KEITH MCPHERSON MORRILL SHERIDAN THOMAS SDC007-047-071-095-102-121-020340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT FALL RIVER JACKSON MELLETTE OGLALA LAKOTA TODD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Jul 2, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 months 1 week ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms should continue this evening over parts of the northern/central Plains, with large hail the primary risk. Isolated damaging winds will also remain possible for a couple more hours across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. ...Northern/Central Plains... Multiple supercells developed this afternoon/evening across parts of the northern/central High Plains, generally along/east of a surface lee trough. Although low-level flow remains fairly modest per area VWPs, sufficient west-northwesterly mid/upper-level flow will continue to foster around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and updraft organization. Persistent supercells will pose mainly a large hail threat as they move slowly south-southeastward for at least the next several hours. An increasing risk for isolated severe winds may also develop given the well-mixed boundary layer and gradual upscale growth anticipated. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 1538 for more details on the short-term severe threat across this region. A separate area of mainly elevated convection may develop later tonight across a broader portion of SD in a low-level warm advection regime. This activity may have an isolated hail threat. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast... Loosely organized convection should continue this evening from parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast along/ahead of a cold front. An isolated threat for damaging winds should persist where pockets of moderate instability remain. But, generally modest deep-layer shear and a gradually stabilizing boundary layer with the loss of daytime heating will likely lead to a gradual reduction in the overall severe threat this evening. ..Gleason.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 2, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 months 1 week ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms should continue this evening over parts of the northern/central Plains, with large hail the primary risk. Isolated damaging winds will also remain possible for a couple more hours across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. ...Northern/Central Plains... Multiple supercells developed this afternoon/evening across parts of the northern/central High Plains, generally along/east of a surface lee trough. Although low-level flow remains fairly modest per area VWPs, sufficient west-northwesterly mid/upper-level flow will continue to foster around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and updraft organization. Persistent supercells will pose mainly a large hail threat as they move slowly south-southeastward for at least the next several hours. An increasing risk for isolated severe winds may also develop given the well-mixed boundary layer and gradual upscale growth anticipated. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 1538 for more details on the short-term severe threat across this region. A separate area of mainly elevated convection may develop later tonight across a broader portion of SD in a low-level warm advection regime. This activity may have an isolated hail threat. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast... Loosely organized convection should continue this evening from parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast along/ahead of a cold front. An isolated threat for damaging winds should persist where pockets of moderate instability remain. But, generally modest deep-layer shear and a gradually stabilizing boundary layer with the loss of daytime heating will likely lead to a gradual reduction in the overall severe threat this evening. ..Gleason.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 2, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 months 1 week ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms should continue this evening over parts of the northern/central Plains, with large hail the primary risk. Isolated damaging winds will also remain possible for a couple more hours across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. ...Northern/Central Plains... Multiple supercells developed this afternoon/evening across parts of the northern/central High Plains, generally along/east of a surface lee trough. Although low-level flow remains fairly modest per area VWPs, sufficient west-northwesterly mid/upper-level flow will continue to foster around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and updraft organization. Persistent supercells will pose mainly a large hail threat as they move slowly south-southeastward for at least the next several hours. An increasing risk for isolated severe winds may also develop given the well-mixed boundary layer and gradual upscale growth anticipated. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 1538 for more details on the short-term severe threat across this region. A separate area of mainly elevated convection may develop later tonight across a broader portion of SD in a low-level warm advection regime. This activity may have an isolated hail threat. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast... Loosely organized convection should continue this evening from parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast along/ahead of a cold front. An isolated threat for damaging winds should persist where pockets of moderate instability remain. But, generally modest deep-layer shear and a gradually stabilizing boundary layer with the loss of daytime heating will likely lead to a gradual reduction in the overall severe threat this evening. ..Gleason.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 2, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 months 1 week ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms should continue this evening over parts of the northern/central Plains, with large hail the primary risk. Isolated damaging winds will also remain possible for a couple more hours across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. ...Northern/Central Plains... Multiple supercells developed this afternoon/evening across parts of the northern/central High Plains, generally along/east of a surface lee trough. Although low-level flow remains fairly modest per area VWPs, sufficient west-northwesterly mid/upper-level flow will continue to foster around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and updraft organization. Persistent supercells will pose mainly a large hail threat as they move slowly south-southeastward for at least the next several hours. An increasing risk for isolated severe winds may also develop given the well-mixed boundary layer and gradual upscale growth anticipated. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 1538 for more details on the short-term severe threat across this region. A separate area of mainly elevated convection may develop later tonight across a broader portion of SD in a low-level warm advection regime. This activity may have an isolated hail threat. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast... Loosely organized convection should continue this evening from parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast along/ahead of a cold front. An isolated threat for damaging winds should persist where pockets of moderate instability remain. But, generally modest deep-layer shear and a gradually stabilizing boundary layer with the loss of daytime heating will likely lead to a gradual reduction in the overall severe threat this evening. ..Gleason.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 2, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 months 1 week ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms should continue this evening over parts of the northern/central Plains, with large hail the primary risk. Isolated damaging winds will also remain possible for a couple more hours across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. ...Northern/Central Plains... Multiple supercells developed this afternoon/evening across parts of the northern/central High Plains, generally along/east of a surface lee trough. Although low-level flow remains fairly modest per area VWPs, sufficient west-northwesterly mid/upper-level flow will continue to foster around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and updraft organization. Persistent supercells will pose mainly a large hail threat as they move slowly south-southeastward for at least the next several hours. An increasing risk for isolated severe winds may also develop given the well-mixed boundary layer and gradual upscale growth anticipated. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 1538 for more details on the short-term severe threat across this region. A separate area of mainly elevated convection may develop later tonight across a broader portion of SD in a low-level warm advection regime. This activity may have an isolated hail threat. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast... Loosely organized convection should continue this evening from parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast along/ahead of a cold front. An isolated threat for damaging winds should persist where pockets of moderate instability remain. But, generally modest deep-layer shear and a gradually stabilizing boundary layer with the loss of daytime heating will likely lead to a gradual reduction in the overall severe threat this evening. ..Gleason.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 2, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 months 1 week ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms should continue this evening over parts of the northern/central Plains, with large hail the primary risk. Isolated damaging winds will also remain possible for a couple more hours across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. ...Northern/Central Plains... Multiple supercells developed this afternoon/evening across parts of the northern/central High Plains, generally along/east of a surface lee trough. Although low-level flow remains fairly modest per area VWPs, sufficient west-northwesterly mid/upper-level flow will continue to foster around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and updraft organization. Persistent supercells will pose mainly a large hail threat as they move slowly south-southeastward for at least the next several hours. An increasing risk for isolated severe winds may also develop given the well-mixed boundary layer and gradual upscale growth anticipated. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 1538 for more details on the short-term severe threat across this region. A separate area of mainly elevated convection may develop later tonight across a broader portion of SD in a low-level warm advection regime. This activity may have an isolated hail threat. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast... Loosely organized convection should continue this evening from parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast along/ahead of a cold front. An isolated threat for damaging winds should persist where pockets of moderate instability remain. But, generally modest deep-layer shear and a gradually stabilizing boundary layer with the loss of daytime heating will likely lead to a gradual reduction in the overall severe threat this evening. ..Gleason.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 2, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 months 1 week ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms should continue this evening over parts of the northern/central Plains, with large hail the primary risk. Isolated damaging winds will also remain possible for a couple more hours across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. ...Northern/Central Plains... Multiple supercells developed this afternoon/evening across parts of the northern/central High Plains, generally along/east of a surface lee trough. Although low-level flow remains fairly modest per area VWPs, sufficient west-northwesterly mid/upper-level flow will continue to foster around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and updraft organization. Persistent supercells will pose mainly a large hail threat as they move slowly south-southeastward for at least the next several hours. An increasing risk for isolated severe winds may also develop given the well-mixed boundary layer and gradual upscale growth anticipated. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 1538 for more details on the short-term severe threat across this region. A separate area of mainly elevated convection may develop later tonight across a broader portion of SD in a low-level warm advection regime. This activity may have an isolated hail threat. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast... Loosely organized convection should continue this evening from parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast along/ahead of a cold front. An isolated threat for damaging winds should persist where pockets of moderate instability remain. But, generally modest deep-layer shear and a gradually stabilizing boundary layer with the loss of daytime heating will likely lead to a gradual reduction in the overall severe threat this evening. ..Gleason.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 481 Status Reports

2 months 1 week ago
WW 0481 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 481 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW RIC TO 30 SE BWI TO 15 ESE DOV. ..SPC..07/02/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 481 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-005-020140- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT SUSSEX MDC009-011-019-037-039-041-045-047-020140- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALVERT CAROLINE DORCHESTER ST. MARYS SOMERSET TALBOT WICOMICO WORCESTER NJC009-020140- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAPE MAY Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 481 Status Reports

2 months 1 week ago
WW 0481 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 481 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW RIC TO 30 SE BWI TO 15 ESE DOV. ..SPC..07/02/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 481 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-005-020140- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT SUSSEX MDC009-011-019-037-039-041-045-047-020140- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALVERT CAROLINE DORCHESTER ST. MARYS SOMERSET TALBOT WICOMICO WORCESTER NJC009-020140- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAPE MAY Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 481 Status Reports

2 months 1 week ago
WW 0481 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 481 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW RIC TO 30 SE BWI TO 15 ESE DOV. ..SPC..07/02/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 481 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-005-020140- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT SUSSEX MDC009-011-019-037-039-041-045-047-020140- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALVERT CAROLINE DORCHESTER ST. MARYS SOMERSET TALBOT WICOMICO WORCESTER NJC009-020140- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAPE MAY Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 481 Status Reports

2 months 1 week ago
WW 0481 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 481 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW RIC TO 30 SE BWI TO 15 ESE DOV. ..SPC..07/02/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 481 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-005-020140- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT SUSSEX MDC009-011-019-037-039-041-045-047-020140- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALVERT CAROLINE DORCHESTER ST. MARYS SOMERSET TALBOT WICOMICO WORCESTER NJC009-020140- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAPE MAY Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 481 Status Reports

2 months 1 week ago
WW 0481 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 481 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW RIC TO 30 SE BWI TO 15 ESE DOV. ..SPC..07/02/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 481 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-005-020140- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT SUSSEX MDC009-011-019-037-039-041-045-047-020140- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALVERT CAROLINE DORCHESTER ST. MARYS SOMERSET TALBOT WICOMICO WORCESTER NJC009-020140- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAPE MAY Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 481

2 months 1 week ago
WW 481 SEVERE TSTM DC DE MD NJ PA VA WV CW 011655Z - 020100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 481 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Delaware Maryland New Jersey South-Central and Southeast Pennsylvania Northern and Central Virginia Eastern West Virginia Panhandle Coastal Waters * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 1255 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase across the region over the next several hours ahead of a shortwave trough and attendant cold front. The airmass across the region is moist and unstable, with moderate to strong instability anticipated amid continued daytime heating. Vertical shear is modest, with a predominantly outflow-dominant storm mode anticipated. Given the expected updraft strength and ample moisture, some strong water-loaded downdrafts capable of producing wind damaging are possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 110 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles south southeast of Charlottesville VA to 40 miles northwest of Allentown PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24020. ...Mosier Read more
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