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2 months 1 week ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...GREAT BASIN...AND UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts
of the northern Rockies/High Plains, Great Basin, and Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes.
...Northern Rockies/High Plains...
Ample daytime heating is forecast today on the northern/western
periphery of upper ridging centered over the Plains. Current
expectations are that high-based thunderstorms will develop
initially over the higher terrain of the northern Rockies, and
subsequently spread east-northeastward through the evening. Even
with low-level moisture and instability expected to remain
modest/weak, a very well-mixed boundary layer will be in place
across this region and the adjacent High Plains. Thunderstorm
downdrafts will likely be able to efficiently mix modestly enhanced
mid-level flow to the surface, and isolated severe gusts should
occur with this activity as it moves across MT and vicinity through
this evening. Confidence in a more concentrated corridor of severe
winds was not high enough to include greater severe probabilities
with this update.
...Great Basin...
Modestly enhanced southerly flow will be present today over parts of
the Great Basin in association with a decaying/weak upper trough/low
over CA and the western Great Basin. While some cloud cover may
limit diurnal heating and related steepening of low-level lapse
rates to some extent this afternoon, it still appears probable that
a generally well-mixed boundary layer will exist across much of NV
into western UT. At least scattered thunderstorms should spread
northward across these areas this afternoon/evening, with isolated
severe wind gusts possible.
...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...
As upper ridging builds over the Plains today, a shortwave trough
over Ontario will dig southeastward and provide glancing large-scale
ascent over parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. A seasonably
moist low-level airmass is expected to remain over most of these
regions, and daytime heating will likely aid in the development of
moderate to strong instability along/south of a front. Some
enhancement to the mid/upper-level west-northwesterly flow should
support sufficient deep-layer shear for organized thunderstorms, and
a conditionally favorable environment for severe thunderstorms
remains apparent. Primary uncertainty remains overall convective
coverage given generally weak large-scale ascent. Have therefore
maintained the Marginal Risk for severe hail/wind across these
regions with minimal changes.
...Eastern North Carolina...
Weak upper troughing will advance eastward today across the southern
Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas as a surface cold front likewise moves
slowly east-southeastward across these areas. Poor lapse rates aloft
will likely limit updraft strength, and deep-layer shear is also
expected to remain weak. While thunderstorms should develop through
the afternoon along/ahead of the front across eastern NC and
vicinity, the potential for damaging winds currently appears too
limited to include low severe probabilities at this time.
..Gleason/Lyons.. 07/02/2025
Read more
2 months 1 week ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...GREAT BASIN...AND UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts
of the northern Rockies/High Plains, Great Basin, and Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes.
...Northern Rockies/High Plains...
Ample daytime heating is forecast today on the northern/western
periphery of upper ridging centered over the Plains. Current
expectations are that high-based thunderstorms will develop
initially over the higher terrain of the northern Rockies, and
subsequently spread east-northeastward through the evening. Even
with low-level moisture and instability expected to remain
modest/weak, a very well-mixed boundary layer will be in place
across this region and the adjacent High Plains. Thunderstorm
downdrafts will likely be able to efficiently mix modestly enhanced
mid-level flow to the surface, and isolated severe gusts should
occur with this activity as it moves across MT and vicinity through
this evening. Confidence in a more concentrated corridor of severe
winds was not high enough to include greater severe probabilities
with this update.
...Great Basin...
Modestly enhanced southerly flow will be present today over parts of
the Great Basin in association with a decaying/weak upper trough/low
over CA and the western Great Basin. While some cloud cover may
limit diurnal heating and related steepening of low-level lapse
rates to some extent this afternoon, it still appears probable that
a generally well-mixed boundary layer will exist across much of NV
into western UT. At least scattered thunderstorms should spread
northward across these areas this afternoon/evening, with isolated
severe wind gusts possible.
...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...
As upper ridging builds over the Plains today, a shortwave trough
over Ontario will dig southeastward and provide glancing large-scale
ascent over parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. A seasonably
moist low-level airmass is expected to remain over most of these
regions, and daytime heating will likely aid in the development of
moderate to strong instability along/south of a front. Some
enhancement to the mid/upper-level west-northwesterly flow should
support sufficient deep-layer shear for organized thunderstorms, and
a conditionally favorable environment for severe thunderstorms
remains apparent. Primary uncertainty remains overall convective
coverage given generally weak large-scale ascent. Have therefore
maintained the Marginal Risk for severe hail/wind across these
regions with minimal changes.
...Eastern North Carolina...
Weak upper troughing will advance eastward today across the southern
Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas as a surface cold front likewise moves
slowly east-southeastward across these areas. Poor lapse rates aloft
will likely limit updraft strength, and deep-layer shear is also
expected to remain weak. While thunderstorms should develop through
the afternoon along/ahead of the front across eastern NC and
vicinity, the potential for damaging winds currently appears too
limited to include low severe probabilities at this time.
..Gleason/Lyons.. 07/02/2025
Read more
2 months 1 week ago
WW 0482 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 482
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E SNY TO
30 WNW VTN.
..SPC..07/02/25
ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...UNR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 482
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC005-017-031-049-069-075-091-101-103-117-149-171-020440-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BROWN CHERRY
DEUEL GARDEN GRANT
HOOKER KEITH KEYA PAHA
MCPHERSON ROCK THOMAS
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
2 months 1 week ago
WW 0482 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 482
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E SNY TO
30 WNW VTN.
..SPC..07/02/25
ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...UNR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 482
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC005-017-031-049-069-075-091-101-103-117-149-171-020440-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BROWN CHERRY
DEUEL GARDEN GRANT
HOOKER KEITH KEYA PAHA
MCPHERSON ROCK THOMAS
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
2 months 1 week ago
WW 482 SEVERE TSTM NE SD WY 012205Z - 020500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 482
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
405 PM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western Nebraska
Western South Dakota
Northeast Wyoming
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 405 PM until
1100 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered severe storm development,
potentially including a couple of high-based supercells, is expected
regionally through early evening, with the possibility that a
loosely organized cluster could evolve later this evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles north of Rapid
City SD to 50 miles east of Sidney NE. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 481...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
29025.
...Guyer
Read more
2 months 1 week ago
MD 1538 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 482... FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WESTERN NEBRASKA...AND EASTERN WYOMING
Mesoscale Discussion 1538
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025
Areas affected...portions of western South Dakota...western
Nebraska...and eastern Wyoming
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 482...
Valid 020043Z - 020215Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 482
continues.
SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms, including a few supercells are
ongoing and expected to continue this evening. Large hail and
damaging winds are likely to continue.
DISCUSSION...Across WW 482, several clusters of severe storms are
ongoing and expected to continue this evening. Several supercells
have organized across southern SD with reports of hail and damaging
gusts. The environment downstream remains favorable for supercells
with 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE and 30-40 kt of bulk shear. Hail
appears to be the most likely threat given the supercell mode.
However, some upscale growth has already been noted, and is expected
to continue this evening with consolidating outflows. This would
support an increasing risk for damaging winds, given MLCL height of
1700-2000 m and DCAPE of 1500+ J/kg.
Additional strong to occasional severe storms may continue across
western SD and far southeast MT. With less buoyancy and increasing
MLCINH, confidence in a sustained severe risk is lower but hail and
damaging gusts remain possible.
..Lyons.. 07/02/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 44940474 45040166 43720023 42040028 41110062 40920207
40870286 41120327 41210336 44940474
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more
2 months 1 week ago
WW 0482 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 482
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E SNY TO
40 SW 2WX.
..LYONS..07/02/25
ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...UNR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 482
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC005-013-031-045-049-069-075-091-101-117-123-161-171-020340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BOX BUTTE CHERRY
DAWES DEUEL GARDEN
GRANT HOOKER KEITH
MCPHERSON MORRILL SHERIDAN
THOMAS
SDC007-047-071-095-102-121-020340-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT FALL RIVER JACKSON
MELLETTE OGLALA LAKOTA TODD
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
2 months 1 week ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025
Valid 020100Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms should continue this evening over
parts of the northern/central Plains, with large hail the primary
risk. Isolated damaging winds will also remain possible for a couple
more hours across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast.
...Northern/Central Plains...
Multiple supercells developed this afternoon/evening across parts of
the northern/central High Plains, generally along/east of a surface
lee trough. Although low-level flow remains fairly modest per area
VWPs, sufficient west-northwesterly mid/upper-level flow will
continue to foster around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and updraft
organization. Persistent supercells will pose mainly a large hail
threat as they move slowly south-southeastward for at least the next
several hours. An increasing risk for isolated severe winds may also
develop given the well-mixed boundary layer and gradual upscale
growth anticipated. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 1538 for more
details on the short-term severe threat across this region. A
separate area of mainly elevated convection may develop later
tonight across a broader portion of SD in a low-level warm advection
regime. This activity may have an isolated hail threat.
...Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast...
Loosely organized convection should continue this evening from parts
of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast along/ahead of a cold front. An
isolated threat for damaging winds should persist where pockets of
moderate instability remain. But, generally modest deep-layer shear
and a gradually stabilizing boundary layer with the loss of daytime
heating will likely lead to a gradual reduction in the overall
severe threat this evening.
..Gleason.. 07/02/2025
Read more
2 months 1 week ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025
Valid 020100Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms should continue this evening over
parts of the northern/central Plains, with large hail the primary
risk. Isolated damaging winds will also remain possible for a couple
more hours across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast.
...Northern/Central Plains...
Multiple supercells developed this afternoon/evening across parts of
the northern/central High Plains, generally along/east of a surface
lee trough. Although low-level flow remains fairly modest per area
VWPs, sufficient west-northwesterly mid/upper-level flow will
continue to foster around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and updraft
organization. Persistent supercells will pose mainly a large hail
threat as they move slowly south-southeastward for at least the next
several hours. An increasing risk for isolated severe winds may also
develop given the well-mixed boundary layer and gradual upscale
growth anticipated. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 1538 for more
details on the short-term severe threat across this region. A
separate area of mainly elevated convection may develop later
tonight across a broader portion of SD in a low-level warm advection
regime. This activity may have an isolated hail threat.
...Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast...
Loosely organized convection should continue this evening from parts
of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast along/ahead of a cold front. An
isolated threat for damaging winds should persist where pockets of
moderate instability remain. But, generally modest deep-layer shear
and a gradually stabilizing boundary layer with the loss of daytime
heating will likely lead to a gradual reduction in the overall
severe threat this evening.
..Gleason.. 07/02/2025
Read more
2 months 1 week ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025
Valid 020100Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms should continue this evening over
parts of the northern/central Plains, with large hail the primary
risk. Isolated damaging winds will also remain possible for a couple
more hours across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast.
...Northern/Central Plains...
Multiple supercells developed this afternoon/evening across parts of
the northern/central High Plains, generally along/east of a surface
lee trough. Although low-level flow remains fairly modest per area
VWPs, sufficient west-northwesterly mid/upper-level flow will
continue to foster around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and updraft
organization. Persistent supercells will pose mainly a large hail
threat as they move slowly south-southeastward for at least the next
several hours. An increasing risk for isolated severe winds may also
develop given the well-mixed boundary layer and gradual upscale
growth anticipated. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 1538 for more
details on the short-term severe threat across this region. A
separate area of mainly elevated convection may develop later
tonight across a broader portion of SD in a low-level warm advection
regime. This activity may have an isolated hail threat.
...Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast...
Loosely organized convection should continue this evening from parts
of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast along/ahead of a cold front. An
isolated threat for damaging winds should persist where pockets of
moderate instability remain. But, generally modest deep-layer shear
and a gradually stabilizing boundary layer with the loss of daytime
heating will likely lead to a gradual reduction in the overall
severe threat this evening.
..Gleason.. 07/02/2025
Read more
2 months 1 week ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025
Valid 020100Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms should continue this evening over
parts of the northern/central Plains, with large hail the primary
risk. Isolated damaging winds will also remain possible for a couple
more hours across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast.
...Northern/Central Plains...
Multiple supercells developed this afternoon/evening across parts of
the northern/central High Plains, generally along/east of a surface
lee trough. Although low-level flow remains fairly modest per area
VWPs, sufficient west-northwesterly mid/upper-level flow will
continue to foster around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and updraft
organization. Persistent supercells will pose mainly a large hail
threat as they move slowly south-southeastward for at least the next
several hours. An increasing risk for isolated severe winds may also
develop given the well-mixed boundary layer and gradual upscale
growth anticipated. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 1538 for more
details on the short-term severe threat across this region. A
separate area of mainly elevated convection may develop later
tonight across a broader portion of SD in a low-level warm advection
regime. This activity may have an isolated hail threat.
...Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast...
Loosely organized convection should continue this evening from parts
of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast along/ahead of a cold front. An
isolated threat for damaging winds should persist where pockets of
moderate instability remain. But, generally modest deep-layer shear
and a gradually stabilizing boundary layer with the loss of daytime
heating will likely lead to a gradual reduction in the overall
severe threat this evening.
..Gleason.. 07/02/2025
Read more
2 months 1 week ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025
Valid 020100Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms should continue this evening over
parts of the northern/central Plains, with large hail the primary
risk. Isolated damaging winds will also remain possible for a couple
more hours across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast.
...Northern/Central Plains...
Multiple supercells developed this afternoon/evening across parts of
the northern/central High Plains, generally along/east of a surface
lee trough. Although low-level flow remains fairly modest per area
VWPs, sufficient west-northwesterly mid/upper-level flow will
continue to foster around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and updraft
organization. Persistent supercells will pose mainly a large hail
threat as they move slowly south-southeastward for at least the next
several hours. An increasing risk for isolated severe winds may also
develop given the well-mixed boundary layer and gradual upscale
growth anticipated. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 1538 for more
details on the short-term severe threat across this region. A
separate area of mainly elevated convection may develop later
tonight across a broader portion of SD in a low-level warm advection
regime. This activity may have an isolated hail threat.
...Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast...
Loosely organized convection should continue this evening from parts
of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast along/ahead of a cold front. An
isolated threat for damaging winds should persist where pockets of
moderate instability remain. But, generally modest deep-layer shear
and a gradually stabilizing boundary layer with the loss of daytime
heating will likely lead to a gradual reduction in the overall
severe threat this evening.
..Gleason.. 07/02/2025
Read more
2 months 1 week ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025
Valid 020100Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms should continue this evening over
parts of the northern/central Plains, with large hail the primary
risk. Isolated damaging winds will also remain possible for a couple
more hours across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast.
...Northern/Central Plains...
Multiple supercells developed this afternoon/evening across parts of
the northern/central High Plains, generally along/east of a surface
lee trough. Although low-level flow remains fairly modest per area
VWPs, sufficient west-northwesterly mid/upper-level flow will
continue to foster around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and updraft
organization. Persistent supercells will pose mainly a large hail
threat as they move slowly south-southeastward for at least the next
several hours. An increasing risk for isolated severe winds may also
develop given the well-mixed boundary layer and gradual upscale
growth anticipated. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 1538 for more
details on the short-term severe threat across this region. A
separate area of mainly elevated convection may develop later
tonight across a broader portion of SD in a low-level warm advection
regime. This activity may have an isolated hail threat.
...Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast...
Loosely organized convection should continue this evening from parts
of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast along/ahead of a cold front. An
isolated threat for damaging winds should persist where pockets of
moderate instability remain. But, generally modest deep-layer shear
and a gradually stabilizing boundary layer with the loss of daytime
heating will likely lead to a gradual reduction in the overall
severe threat this evening.
..Gleason.. 07/02/2025
Read more
2 months 1 week ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025
Valid 020100Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms should continue this evening over
parts of the northern/central Plains, with large hail the primary
risk. Isolated damaging winds will also remain possible for a couple
more hours across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast.
...Northern/Central Plains...
Multiple supercells developed this afternoon/evening across parts of
the northern/central High Plains, generally along/east of a surface
lee trough. Although low-level flow remains fairly modest per area
VWPs, sufficient west-northwesterly mid/upper-level flow will
continue to foster around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and updraft
organization. Persistent supercells will pose mainly a large hail
threat as they move slowly south-southeastward for at least the next
several hours. An increasing risk for isolated severe winds may also
develop given the well-mixed boundary layer and gradual upscale
growth anticipated. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 1538 for more
details on the short-term severe threat across this region. A
separate area of mainly elevated convection may develop later
tonight across a broader portion of SD in a low-level warm advection
regime. This activity may have an isolated hail threat.
...Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast...
Loosely organized convection should continue this evening from parts
of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast along/ahead of a cold front. An
isolated threat for damaging winds should persist where pockets of
moderate instability remain. But, generally modest deep-layer shear
and a gradually stabilizing boundary layer with the loss of daytime
heating will likely lead to a gradual reduction in the overall
severe threat this evening.
..Gleason.. 07/02/2025
Read more
2 months 1 week ago
WW 0481 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 481
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW RIC
TO 30 SE BWI TO 15 ESE DOV.
..SPC..07/02/25
ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...RNK...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 481
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
DEC001-005-020140-
DE
. DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
KENT SUSSEX
MDC009-011-019-037-039-041-045-047-020140-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALVERT CAROLINE DORCHESTER
ST. MARYS SOMERSET TALBOT
WICOMICO WORCESTER
NJC009-020140-
NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAPE MAY
Read more
2 months 1 week ago
WW 0481 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 481
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW RIC
TO 30 SE BWI TO 15 ESE DOV.
..SPC..07/02/25
ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...RNK...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 481
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
DEC001-005-020140-
DE
. DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
KENT SUSSEX
MDC009-011-019-037-039-041-045-047-020140-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALVERT CAROLINE DORCHESTER
ST. MARYS SOMERSET TALBOT
WICOMICO WORCESTER
NJC009-020140-
NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAPE MAY
Read more
2 months 1 week ago
WW 0481 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 481
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW RIC
TO 30 SE BWI TO 15 ESE DOV.
..SPC..07/02/25
ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...RNK...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 481
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
DEC001-005-020140-
DE
. DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
KENT SUSSEX
MDC009-011-019-037-039-041-045-047-020140-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALVERT CAROLINE DORCHESTER
ST. MARYS SOMERSET TALBOT
WICOMICO WORCESTER
NJC009-020140-
NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAPE MAY
Read more
2 months 1 week ago
WW 0481 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 481
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW RIC
TO 30 SE BWI TO 15 ESE DOV.
..SPC..07/02/25
ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...RNK...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 481
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
DEC001-005-020140-
DE
. DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
KENT SUSSEX
MDC009-011-019-037-039-041-045-047-020140-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALVERT CAROLINE DORCHESTER
ST. MARYS SOMERSET TALBOT
WICOMICO WORCESTER
NJC009-020140-
NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAPE MAY
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2 months 1 week ago
WW 0481 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 481
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW RIC
TO 30 SE BWI TO 15 ESE DOV.
..SPC..07/02/25
ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...RNK...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 481
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
DEC001-005-020140-
DE
. DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
KENT SUSSEX
MDC009-011-019-037-039-041-045-047-020140-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALVERT CAROLINE DORCHESTER
ST. MARYS SOMERSET TALBOT
WICOMICO WORCESTER
NJC009-020140-
NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAPE MAY
Read more
2 months 1 week ago
WW 481 SEVERE TSTM DC DE MD NJ PA VA WV CW 011655Z - 020100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 481
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
District Of Columbia
Delaware
Maryland
New Jersey
South-Central and Southeast Pennsylvania
Northern and Central Virginia
Eastern West Virginia Panhandle
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 1255 PM until
900 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase across the
region over the next several hours ahead of a shortwave trough and
attendant cold front. The airmass across the region is moist and
unstable, with moderate to strong instability anticipated amid
continued daytime heating. Vertical shear is modest, with a
predominantly outflow-dominant storm mode anticipated. Given the
expected updraft strength and ample moisture, some strong
water-loaded downdrafts capable of producing wind damaging are
possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 110
statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles south southeast
of Charlottesville VA to 40 miles northwest of Allentown PA. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24020.
...Mosier
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Checked
5 years 11 months ago
Storm Prediction Center
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