Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z ...Days 3-5/Thursday-Saturday... An upper-level ridge will shift eastward from the Intermountain West into the eastern U.S. through Day 5/Saturday while an upper-level trough and cooler temperatures move into the Pacific Northwest, mitigating fire weather concerns into the weekend. A mid-level short-wave trough ejects into the Great Basin Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday bringing a period of stronger downslope flow into western Nevada on Thursday, increasing the fire weather threat amid drying fuels. A 50-60 knot mid-level jet associated with the short-wave and an increasingly dry boundary layer will also support stronger southwest winds across the southern Great Basin, increasing wildfire spread potential. A mix of diurnally driven wet/dry thunderstorms across the Intermountain West within a residual monsoon moisture plume will decrease in coverage from west to east as a dry southwest flow pattern is established across the Southwest. ...Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday... Dry southwest flow aloft will keep monsoon moisture and associated daytime convection primarily along the Continental Divide on Day 6/Sunday. A return of monsoon moisture into Lower Colorado River Basin could return by Day 8/Tuesday in response to a nascent Four Corners High, but forecast uncertainty in timing of moisture return precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z ...Days 3-5/Thursday-Saturday... An upper-level ridge will shift eastward from the Intermountain West into the eastern U.S. through Day 5/Saturday while an upper-level trough and cooler temperatures move into the Pacific Northwest, mitigating fire weather concerns into the weekend. A mid-level short-wave trough ejects into the Great Basin Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday bringing a period of stronger downslope flow into western Nevada on Thursday, increasing the fire weather threat amid drying fuels. A 50-60 knot mid-level jet associated with the short-wave and an increasingly dry boundary layer will also support stronger southwest winds across the southern Great Basin, increasing wildfire spread potential. A mix of diurnally driven wet/dry thunderstorms across the Intermountain West within a residual monsoon moisture plume will decrease in coverage from west to east as a dry southwest flow pattern is established across the Southwest. ...Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday... Dry southwest flow aloft will keep monsoon moisture and associated daytime convection primarily along the Continental Divide on Day 6/Sunday. A return of monsoon moisture into Lower Colorado River Basin could return by Day 8/Tuesday in response to a nascent Four Corners High, but forecast uncertainty in timing of moisture return precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z ...Days 3-5/Thursday-Saturday... An upper-level ridge will shift eastward from the Intermountain West into the eastern U.S. through Day 5/Saturday while an upper-level trough and cooler temperatures move into the Pacific Northwest, mitigating fire weather concerns into the weekend. A mid-level short-wave trough ejects into the Great Basin Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday bringing a period of stronger downslope flow into western Nevada on Thursday, increasing the fire weather threat amid drying fuels. A 50-60 knot mid-level jet associated with the short-wave and an increasingly dry boundary layer will also support stronger southwest winds across the southern Great Basin, increasing wildfire spread potential. A mix of diurnally driven wet/dry thunderstorms across the Intermountain West within a residual monsoon moisture plume will decrease in coverage from west to east as a dry southwest flow pattern is established across the Southwest. ...Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday... Dry southwest flow aloft will keep monsoon moisture and associated daytime convection primarily along the Continental Divide on Day 6/Sunday. A return of monsoon moisture into Lower Colorado River Basin could return by Day 8/Tuesday in response to a nascent Four Corners High, but forecast uncertainty in timing of moisture return precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z ...Days 3-5/Thursday-Saturday... An upper-level ridge will shift eastward from the Intermountain West into the eastern U.S. through Day 5/Saturday while an upper-level trough and cooler temperatures move into the Pacific Northwest, mitigating fire weather concerns into the weekend. A mid-level short-wave trough ejects into the Great Basin Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday bringing a period of stronger downslope flow into western Nevada on Thursday, increasing the fire weather threat amid drying fuels. A 50-60 knot mid-level jet associated with the short-wave and an increasingly dry boundary layer will also support stronger southwest winds across the southern Great Basin, increasing wildfire spread potential. A mix of diurnally driven wet/dry thunderstorms across the Intermountain West within a residual monsoon moisture plume will decrease in coverage from west to east as a dry southwest flow pattern is established across the Southwest. ...Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday... Dry southwest flow aloft will keep monsoon moisture and associated daytime convection primarily along the Continental Divide on Day 6/Sunday. A return of monsoon moisture into Lower Colorado River Basin could return by Day 8/Tuesday in response to a nascent Four Corners High, but forecast uncertainty in timing of moisture return precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z ...Days 3-5/Thursday-Saturday... An upper-level ridge will shift eastward from the Intermountain West into the eastern U.S. through Day 5/Saturday while an upper-level trough and cooler temperatures move into the Pacific Northwest, mitigating fire weather concerns into the weekend. A mid-level short-wave trough ejects into the Great Basin Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday bringing a period of stronger downslope flow into western Nevada on Thursday, increasing the fire weather threat amid drying fuels. A 50-60 knot mid-level jet associated with the short-wave and an increasingly dry boundary layer will also support stronger southwest winds across the southern Great Basin, increasing wildfire spread potential. A mix of diurnally driven wet/dry thunderstorms across the Intermountain West within a residual monsoon moisture plume will decrease in coverage from west to east as a dry southwest flow pattern is established across the Southwest. ...Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday... Dry southwest flow aloft will keep monsoon moisture and associated daytime convection primarily along the Continental Divide on Day 6/Sunday. A return of monsoon moisture into Lower Colorado River Basin could return by Day 8/Tuesday in response to a nascent Four Corners High, but forecast uncertainty in timing of moisture return precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1533 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 481... FOR MID-ATLANTIC STATES
Mesoscale Discussion 1533 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Areas affected...Mid-Atlantic States Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 481... Valid 011902Z - 012100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 481 continues. SUMMARY...Multiple clusters spreading across the Piedmont to Coastal Plain should produce swaths of damaging winds as activity reaches Chesapeake/Delaware Bays and the adjacent Mid-Atlantic Coast. DISCUSSION...Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are ongoing with multiple consolidating clusters over central to southeast PA and northern VA. The northwesternmost of these has maintained coherent but sub-severe outflow that should spell the end of severe potential in its wake. With potential for cold pool intensification, this cluster may accelerate and merge into the leading clusters. This would consequently increase damaging wind potential across the DE to Chesapeake Bay vicinity. Low to mid 90s surface temperatures, away from any immediate marine influence, are common in these regions, supporting peak MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg ahead of the clusters. Strong to localized severe gust potential is expected to peak in the next 2-4 hours. ..Grams.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 40477673 40307517 40177397 39757392 38857467 38287506 37917607 37807693 38057820 38397867 38597831 38777757 39457695 39927719 40147729 40477673 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

WW 0481 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 481 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE EKN TO 20 ENE CXY TO 20 SSE AVP. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1533. ..GRAMS..07/01/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 481 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-012140- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX DCC001-012140- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-025-027-029-031-033-035- 037-039-041-043-045-047-510-012140- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT Read more

WW 0481 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 481 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE EKN TO 20 ENE CXY TO 20 SSE AVP. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1533. ..GRAMS..07/01/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 481 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-012140- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX DCC001-012140- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-025-027-029-031-033-035- 037-039-041-043-045-047-510-012140- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are forecast across the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe wind gusts are also possible in the Northern Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen over New England as an upper trough moves over the Midwest, and broad mid-level troughing with multiple embedded impulses, overspreads the U.S. west of the Rockies on Thursday. The East and West Coast upper troughs will encourage surface troughing across the Northeast and the Plains states, as well as weak surface low development over the Great Basin. Given the presence of seasonal low-level moisture, and expected diurnal heating, at least scattered thunderstorms will develop across much of the Interior West, into the Plains, Midwest, and East Coast regions. At least isolated strong to potentially severe storms could develop over parts of the northern CONUS, where appreciable vertical wind shear will overspread the warm, moist airmass to support organized thunderstorms. ...Northeast... As the surface trough progresses across the Northeast, deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the region. Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will foster modest buoyancy, with 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE expected. As thunderstorms develop during the afternoon, they will encounter roughly 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear, characterized by elongated/straight hodographs. Multicells and short line segments should be the main storm modes, with isolated damaging gusts the primary threat with the stronger storms. ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... A belt of 35-45 kt northwesterly flow on the back side of the East Coast upper trough will overspread the Great Lakes during the afternoon hours, where diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass will destabilize the boundary layer. MLCAPE may exceed 2000 J/kg in spots (locally higher to 3000 J/kg toward southeast MN given 7.5+ C/km mid-level lapse rates farther to the west). Forecast soundings depict modestly curved and elongated hodographs, supporting multicells and perhaps supercells with some of the stronger storms. Isolated severe wind and hail may accompany the stronger storms. Greater severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if favorable trends in greater storm coverage are realized in later available guidance. ...Northern High Plains... A mid-level impulse will traverse the broader western upper troughing regime and eject into the northern High Plains Thursday afternoon. By this time, steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread upper 60s F dewpoints to promote moderate to locally strong instability, with MLCAPE exceeding 3000 J/kg. Modest turning and strengthening of the winds with height will support elongated hodographs with slight low-level curvature, which will support multicells and splitting supercells given the aforementioned buoyancy. The storms are forecast to be isolated in coverage, with a few instances of severe wind and hail expected. ..Squitieri.. 07/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are forecast across the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe wind gusts are also possible in the Northern Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen over New England as an upper trough moves over the Midwest, and broad mid-level troughing with multiple embedded impulses, overspreads the U.S. west of the Rockies on Thursday. The East and West Coast upper troughs will encourage surface troughing across the Northeast and the Plains states, as well as weak surface low development over the Great Basin. Given the presence of seasonal low-level moisture, and expected diurnal heating, at least scattered thunderstorms will develop across much of the Interior West, into the Plains, Midwest, and East Coast regions. At least isolated strong to potentially severe storms could develop over parts of the northern CONUS, where appreciable vertical wind shear will overspread the warm, moist airmass to support organized thunderstorms. ...Northeast... As the surface trough progresses across the Northeast, deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the region. Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will foster modest buoyancy, with 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE expected. As thunderstorms develop during the afternoon, they will encounter roughly 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear, characterized by elongated/straight hodographs. Multicells and short line segments should be the main storm modes, with isolated damaging gusts the primary threat with the stronger storms. ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... A belt of 35-45 kt northwesterly flow on the back side of the East Coast upper trough will overspread the Great Lakes during the afternoon hours, where diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass will destabilize the boundary layer. MLCAPE may exceed 2000 J/kg in spots (locally higher to 3000 J/kg toward southeast MN given 7.5+ C/km mid-level lapse rates farther to the west). Forecast soundings depict modestly curved and elongated hodographs, supporting multicells and perhaps supercells with some of the stronger storms. Isolated severe wind and hail may accompany the stronger storms. Greater severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if favorable trends in greater storm coverage are realized in later available guidance. ...Northern High Plains... A mid-level impulse will traverse the broader western upper troughing regime and eject into the northern High Plains Thursday afternoon. By this time, steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread upper 60s F dewpoints to promote moderate to locally strong instability, with MLCAPE exceeding 3000 J/kg. Modest turning and strengthening of the winds with height will support elongated hodographs with slight low-level curvature, which will support multicells and splitting supercells given the aforementioned buoyancy. The storms are forecast to be isolated in coverage, with a few instances of severe wind and hail expected. ..Squitieri.. 07/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are forecast across the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe wind gusts are also possible in the Northern Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen over New England as an upper trough moves over the Midwest, and broad mid-level troughing with multiple embedded impulses, overspreads the U.S. west of the Rockies on Thursday. The East and West Coast upper troughs will encourage surface troughing across the Northeast and the Plains states, as well as weak surface low development over the Great Basin. Given the presence of seasonal low-level moisture, and expected diurnal heating, at least scattered thunderstorms will develop across much of the Interior West, into the Plains, Midwest, and East Coast regions. At least isolated strong to potentially severe storms could develop over parts of the northern CONUS, where appreciable vertical wind shear will overspread the warm, moist airmass to support organized thunderstorms. ...Northeast... As the surface trough progresses across the Northeast, deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the region. Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will foster modest buoyancy, with 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE expected. As thunderstorms develop during the afternoon, they will encounter roughly 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear, characterized by elongated/straight hodographs. Multicells and short line segments should be the main storm modes, with isolated damaging gusts the primary threat with the stronger storms. ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... A belt of 35-45 kt northwesterly flow on the back side of the East Coast upper trough will overspread the Great Lakes during the afternoon hours, where diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass will destabilize the boundary layer. MLCAPE may exceed 2000 J/kg in spots (locally higher to 3000 J/kg toward southeast MN given 7.5+ C/km mid-level lapse rates farther to the west). Forecast soundings depict modestly curved and elongated hodographs, supporting multicells and perhaps supercells with some of the stronger storms. Isolated severe wind and hail may accompany the stronger storms. Greater severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if favorable trends in greater storm coverage are realized in later available guidance. ...Northern High Plains... A mid-level impulse will traverse the broader western upper troughing regime and eject into the northern High Plains Thursday afternoon. By this time, steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread upper 60s F dewpoints to promote moderate to locally strong instability, with MLCAPE exceeding 3000 J/kg. Modest turning and strengthening of the winds with height will support elongated hodographs with slight low-level curvature, which will support multicells and splitting supercells given the aforementioned buoyancy. The storms are forecast to be isolated in coverage, with a few instances of severe wind and hail expected. ..Squitieri.. 07/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are forecast across the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe wind gusts are also possible in the Northern Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen over New England as an upper trough moves over the Midwest, and broad mid-level troughing with multiple embedded impulses, overspreads the U.S. west of the Rockies on Thursday. The East and West Coast upper troughs will encourage surface troughing across the Northeast and the Plains states, as well as weak surface low development over the Great Basin. Given the presence of seasonal low-level moisture, and expected diurnal heating, at least scattered thunderstorms will develop across much of the Interior West, into the Plains, Midwest, and East Coast regions. At least isolated strong to potentially severe storms could develop over parts of the northern CONUS, where appreciable vertical wind shear will overspread the warm, moist airmass to support organized thunderstorms. ...Northeast... As the surface trough progresses across the Northeast, deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the region. Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will foster modest buoyancy, with 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE expected. As thunderstorms develop during the afternoon, they will encounter roughly 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear, characterized by elongated/straight hodographs. Multicells and short line segments should be the main storm modes, with isolated damaging gusts the primary threat with the stronger storms. ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... A belt of 35-45 kt northwesterly flow on the back side of the East Coast upper trough will overspread the Great Lakes during the afternoon hours, where diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass will destabilize the boundary layer. MLCAPE may exceed 2000 J/kg in spots (locally higher to 3000 J/kg toward southeast MN given 7.5+ C/km mid-level lapse rates farther to the west). Forecast soundings depict modestly curved and elongated hodographs, supporting multicells and perhaps supercells with some of the stronger storms. Isolated severe wind and hail may accompany the stronger storms. Greater severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if favorable trends in greater storm coverage are realized in later available guidance. ...Northern High Plains... A mid-level impulse will traverse the broader western upper troughing regime and eject into the northern High Plains Thursday afternoon. By this time, steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread upper 60s F dewpoints to promote moderate to locally strong instability, with MLCAPE exceeding 3000 J/kg. Modest turning and strengthening of the winds with height will support elongated hodographs with slight low-level curvature, which will support multicells and splitting supercells given the aforementioned buoyancy. The storms are forecast to be isolated in coverage, with a few instances of severe wind and hail expected. ..Squitieri.. 07/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are forecast across the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe wind gusts are also possible in the Northern Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen over New England as an upper trough moves over the Midwest, and broad mid-level troughing with multiple embedded impulses, overspreads the U.S. west of the Rockies on Thursday. The East and West Coast upper troughs will encourage surface troughing across the Northeast and the Plains states, as well as weak surface low development over the Great Basin. Given the presence of seasonal low-level moisture, and expected diurnal heating, at least scattered thunderstorms will develop across much of the Interior West, into the Plains, Midwest, and East Coast regions. At least isolated strong to potentially severe storms could develop over parts of the northern CONUS, where appreciable vertical wind shear will overspread the warm, moist airmass to support organized thunderstorms. ...Northeast... As the surface trough progresses across the Northeast, deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the region. Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will foster modest buoyancy, with 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE expected. As thunderstorms develop during the afternoon, they will encounter roughly 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear, characterized by elongated/straight hodographs. Multicells and short line segments should be the main storm modes, with isolated damaging gusts the primary threat with the stronger storms. ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... A belt of 35-45 kt northwesterly flow on the back side of the East Coast upper trough will overspread the Great Lakes during the afternoon hours, where diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass will destabilize the boundary layer. MLCAPE may exceed 2000 J/kg in spots (locally higher to 3000 J/kg toward southeast MN given 7.5+ C/km mid-level lapse rates farther to the west). Forecast soundings depict modestly curved and elongated hodographs, supporting multicells and perhaps supercells with some of the stronger storms. Isolated severe wind and hail may accompany the stronger storms. Greater severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if favorable trends in greater storm coverage are realized in later available guidance. ...Northern High Plains... A mid-level impulse will traverse the broader western upper troughing regime and eject into the northern High Plains Thursday afternoon. By this time, steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread upper 60s F dewpoints to promote moderate to locally strong instability, with MLCAPE exceeding 3000 J/kg. Modest turning and strengthening of the winds with height will support elongated hodographs with slight low-level curvature, which will support multicells and splitting supercells given the aforementioned buoyancy. The storms are forecast to be isolated in coverage, with a few instances of severe wind and hail expected. ..Squitieri.. 07/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are forecast across the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe wind gusts are also possible in the Northern Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen over New England as an upper trough moves over the Midwest, and broad mid-level troughing with multiple embedded impulses, overspreads the U.S. west of the Rockies on Thursday. The East and West Coast upper troughs will encourage surface troughing across the Northeast and the Plains states, as well as weak surface low development over the Great Basin. Given the presence of seasonal low-level moisture, and expected diurnal heating, at least scattered thunderstorms will develop across much of the Interior West, into the Plains, Midwest, and East Coast regions. At least isolated strong to potentially severe storms could develop over parts of the northern CONUS, where appreciable vertical wind shear will overspread the warm, moist airmass to support organized thunderstorms. ...Northeast... As the surface trough progresses across the Northeast, deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the region. Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will foster modest buoyancy, with 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE expected. As thunderstorms develop during the afternoon, they will encounter roughly 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear, characterized by elongated/straight hodographs. Multicells and short line segments should be the main storm modes, with isolated damaging gusts the primary threat with the stronger storms. ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... A belt of 35-45 kt northwesterly flow on the back side of the East Coast upper trough will overspread the Great Lakes during the afternoon hours, where diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass will destabilize the boundary layer. MLCAPE may exceed 2000 J/kg in spots (locally higher to 3000 J/kg toward southeast MN given 7.5+ C/km mid-level lapse rates farther to the west). Forecast soundings depict modestly curved and elongated hodographs, supporting multicells and perhaps supercells with some of the stronger storms. Isolated severe wind and hail may accompany the stronger storms. Greater severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if favorable trends in greater storm coverage are realized in later available guidance. ...Northern High Plains... A mid-level impulse will traverse the broader western upper troughing regime and eject into the northern High Plains Thursday afternoon. By this time, steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread upper 60s F dewpoints to promote moderate to locally strong instability, with MLCAPE exceeding 3000 J/kg. Modest turning and strengthening of the winds with height will support elongated hodographs with slight low-level curvature, which will support multicells and splitting supercells given the aforementioned buoyancy. The storms are forecast to be isolated in coverage, with a few instances of severe wind and hail expected. ..Squitieri.. 07/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are forecast across the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe wind gusts are also possible in the Northern Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen over New England as an upper trough moves over the Midwest, and broad mid-level troughing with multiple embedded impulses, overspreads the U.S. west of the Rockies on Thursday. The East and West Coast upper troughs will encourage surface troughing across the Northeast and the Plains states, as well as weak surface low development over the Great Basin. Given the presence of seasonal low-level moisture, and expected diurnal heating, at least scattered thunderstorms will develop across much of the Interior West, into the Plains, Midwest, and East Coast regions. At least isolated strong to potentially severe storms could develop over parts of the northern CONUS, where appreciable vertical wind shear will overspread the warm, moist airmass to support organized thunderstorms. ...Northeast... As the surface trough progresses across the Northeast, deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the region. Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will foster modest buoyancy, with 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE expected. As thunderstorms develop during the afternoon, they will encounter roughly 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear, characterized by elongated/straight hodographs. Multicells and short line segments should be the main storm modes, with isolated damaging gusts the primary threat with the stronger storms. ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... A belt of 35-45 kt northwesterly flow on the back side of the East Coast upper trough will overspread the Great Lakes during the afternoon hours, where diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass will destabilize the boundary layer. MLCAPE may exceed 2000 J/kg in spots (locally higher to 3000 J/kg toward southeast MN given 7.5+ C/km mid-level lapse rates farther to the west). Forecast soundings depict modestly curved and elongated hodographs, supporting multicells and perhaps supercells with some of the stronger storms. Isolated severe wind and hail may accompany the stronger storms. Greater severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if favorable trends in greater storm coverage are realized in later available guidance. ...Northern High Plains... A mid-level impulse will traverse the broader western upper troughing regime and eject into the northern High Plains Thursday afternoon. By this time, steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread upper 60s F dewpoints to promote moderate to locally strong instability, with MLCAPE exceeding 3000 J/kg. Modest turning and strengthening of the winds with height will support elongated hodographs with slight low-level curvature, which will support multicells and splitting supercells given the aforementioned buoyancy. The storms are forecast to be isolated in coverage, with a few instances of severe wind and hail expected. ..Squitieri.. 07/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are forecast across the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe wind gusts are also possible in the Northern Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen over New England as an upper trough moves over the Midwest, and broad mid-level troughing with multiple embedded impulses, overspreads the U.S. west of the Rockies on Thursday. The East and West Coast upper troughs will encourage surface troughing across the Northeast and the Plains states, as well as weak surface low development over the Great Basin. Given the presence of seasonal low-level moisture, and expected diurnal heating, at least scattered thunderstorms will develop across much of the Interior West, into the Plains, Midwest, and East Coast regions. At least isolated strong to potentially severe storms could develop over parts of the northern CONUS, where appreciable vertical wind shear will overspread the warm, moist airmass to support organized thunderstorms. ...Northeast... As the surface trough progresses across the Northeast, deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the region. Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will foster modest buoyancy, with 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE expected. As thunderstorms develop during the afternoon, they will encounter roughly 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear, characterized by elongated/straight hodographs. Multicells and short line segments should be the main storm modes, with isolated damaging gusts the primary threat with the stronger storms. ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... A belt of 35-45 kt northwesterly flow on the back side of the East Coast upper trough will overspread the Great Lakes during the afternoon hours, where diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass will destabilize the boundary layer. MLCAPE may exceed 2000 J/kg in spots (locally higher to 3000 J/kg toward southeast MN given 7.5+ C/km mid-level lapse rates farther to the west). Forecast soundings depict modestly curved and elongated hodographs, supporting multicells and perhaps supercells with some of the stronger storms. Isolated severe wind and hail may accompany the stronger storms. Greater severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if favorable trends in greater storm coverage are realized in later available guidance. ...Northern High Plains... A mid-level impulse will traverse the broader western upper troughing regime and eject into the northern High Plains Thursday afternoon. By this time, steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread upper 60s F dewpoints to promote moderate to locally strong instability, with MLCAPE exceeding 3000 J/kg. Modest turning and strengthening of the winds with height will support elongated hodographs with slight low-level curvature, which will support multicells and splitting supercells given the aforementioned buoyancy. The storms are forecast to be isolated in coverage, with a few instances of severe wind and hail expected. ..Squitieri.. 07/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are forecast across the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe wind gusts are also possible in the Northern Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen over New England as an upper trough moves over the Midwest, and broad mid-level troughing with multiple embedded impulses, overspreads the U.S. west of the Rockies on Thursday. The East and West Coast upper troughs will encourage surface troughing across the Northeast and the Plains states, as well as weak surface low development over the Great Basin. Given the presence of seasonal low-level moisture, and expected diurnal heating, at least scattered thunderstorms will develop across much of the Interior West, into the Plains, Midwest, and East Coast regions. At least isolated strong to potentially severe storms could develop over parts of the northern CONUS, where appreciable vertical wind shear will overspread the warm, moist airmass to support organized thunderstorms. ...Northeast... As the surface trough progresses across the Northeast, deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the region. Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will foster modest buoyancy, with 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE expected. As thunderstorms develop during the afternoon, they will encounter roughly 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear, characterized by elongated/straight hodographs. Multicells and short line segments should be the main storm modes, with isolated damaging gusts the primary threat with the stronger storms. ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... A belt of 35-45 kt northwesterly flow on the back side of the East Coast upper trough will overspread the Great Lakes during the afternoon hours, where diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass will destabilize the boundary layer. MLCAPE may exceed 2000 J/kg in spots (locally higher to 3000 J/kg toward southeast MN given 7.5+ C/km mid-level lapse rates farther to the west). Forecast soundings depict modestly curved and elongated hodographs, supporting multicells and perhaps supercells with some of the stronger storms. Isolated severe wind and hail may accompany the stronger storms. Greater severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if favorable trends in greater storm coverage are realized in later available guidance. ...Northern High Plains... A mid-level impulse will traverse the broader western upper troughing regime and eject into the northern High Plains Thursday afternoon. By this time, steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread upper 60s F dewpoints to promote moderate to locally strong instability, with MLCAPE exceeding 3000 J/kg. Modest turning and strengthening of the winds with height will support elongated hodographs with slight low-level curvature, which will support multicells and splitting supercells given the aforementioned buoyancy. The storms are forecast to be isolated in coverage, with a few instances of severe wind and hail expected. ..Squitieri.. 07/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are forecast across the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe wind gusts are also possible in the Northern Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen over New England as an upper trough moves over the Midwest, and broad mid-level troughing with multiple embedded impulses, overspreads the U.S. west of the Rockies on Thursday. The East and West Coast upper troughs will encourage surface troughing across the Northeast and the Plains states, as well as weak surface low development over the Great Basin. Given the presence of seasonal low-level moisture, and expected diurnal heating, at least scattered thunderstorms will develop across much of the Interior West, into the Plains, Midwest, and East Coast regions. At least isolated strong to potentially severe storms could develop over parts of the northern CONUS, where appreciable vertical wind shear will overspread the warm, moist airmass to support organized thunderstorms. ...Northeast... As the surface trough progresses across the Northeast, deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the region. Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will foster modest buoyancy, with 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE expected. As thunderstorms develop during the afternoon, they will encounter roughly 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear, characterized by elongated/straight hodographs. Multicells and short line segments should be the main storm modes, with isolated damaging gusts the primary threat with the stronger storms. ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... A belt of 35-45 kt northwesterly flow on the back side of the East Coast upper trough will overspread the Great Lakes during the afternoon hours, where diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass will destabilize the boundary layer. MLCAPE may exceed 2000 J/kg in spots (locally higher to 3000 J/kg toward southeast MN given 7.5+ C/km mid-level lapse rates farther to the west). Forecast soundings depict modestly curved and elongated hodographs, supporting multicells and perhaps supercells with some of the stronger storms. Isolated severe wind and hail may accompany the stronger storms. Greater severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if favorable trends in greater storm coverage are realized in later available guidance. ...Northern High Plains... A mid-level impulse will traverse the broader western upper troughing regime and eject into the northern High Plains Thursday afternoon. By this time, steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread upper 60s F dewpoints to promote moderate to locally strong instability, with MLCAPE exceeding 3000 J/kg. Modest turning and strengthening of the winds with height will support elongated hodographs with slight low-level curvature, which will support multicells and splitting supercells given the aforementioned buoyancy. The storms are forecast to be isolated in coverage, with a few instances of severe wind and hail expected. ..Squitieri.. 07/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are forecast across the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe wind gusts are also possible in the Northern Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen over New England as an upper trough moves over the Midwest, and broad mid-level troughing with multiple embedded impulses, overspreads the U.S. west of the Rockies on Thursday. The East and West Coast upper troughs will encourage surface troughing across the Northeast and the Plains states, as well as weak surface low development over the Great Basin. Given the presence of seasonal low-level moisture, and expected diurnal heating, at least scattered thunderstorms will develop across much of the Interior West, into the Plains, Midwest, and East Coast regions. At least isolated strong to potentially severe storms could develop over parts of the northern CONUS, where appreciable vertical wind shear will overspread the warm, moist airmass to support organized thunderstorms. ...Northeast... As the surface trough progresses across the Northeast, deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the region. Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will foster modest buoyancy, with 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE expected. As thunderstorms develop during the afternoon, they will encounter roughly 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear, characterized by elongated/straight hodographs. Multicells and short line segments should be the main storm modes, with isolated damaging gusts the primary threat with the stronger storms. ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... A belt of 35-45 kt northwesterly flow on the back side of the East Coast upper trough will overspread the Great Lakes during the afternoon hours, where diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass will destabilize the boundary layer. MLCAPE may exceed 2000 J/kg in spots (locally higher to 3000 J/kg toward southeast MN given 7.5+ C/km mid-level lapse rates farther to the west). Forecast soundings depict modestly curved and elongated hodographs, supporting multicells and perhaps supercells with some of the stronger storms. Isolated severe wind and hail may accompany the stronger storms. Greater severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if favorable trends in greater storm coverage are realized in later available guidance. ...Northern High Plains... A mid-level impulse will traverse the broader western upper troughing regime and eject into the northern High Plains Thursday afternoon. By this time, steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread upper 60s F dewpoints to promote moderate to locally strong instability, with MLCAPE exceeding 3000 J/kg. Modest turning and strengthening of the winds with height will support elongated hodographs with slight low-level curvature, which will support multicells and splitting supercells given the aforementioned buoyancy. The storms are forecast to be isolated in coverage, with a few instances of severe wind and hail expected. ..Squitieri.. 07/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are forecast across the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe wind gusts are also possible in the Northern Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen over New England as an upper trough moves over the Midwest, and broad mid-level troughing with multiple embedded impulses, overspreads the U.S. west of the Rockies on Thursday. The East and West Coast upper troughs will encourage surface troughing across the Northeast and the Plains states, as well as weak surface low development over the Great Basin. Given the presence of seasonal low-level moisture, and expected diurnal heating, at least scattered thunderstorms will develop across much of the Interior West, into the Plains, Midwest, and East Coast regions. At least isolated strong to potentially severe storms could develop over parts of the northern CONUS, where appreciable vertical wind shear will overspread the warm, moist airmass to support organized thunderstorms. ...Northeast... As the surface trough progresses across the Northeast, deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the region. Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will foster modest buoyancy, with 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE expected. As thunderstorms develop during the afternoon, they will encounter roughly 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear, characterized by elongated/straight hodographs. Multicells and short line segments should be the main storm modes, with isolated damaging gusts the primary threat with the stronger storms. ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... A belt of 35-45 kt northwesterly flow on the back side of the East Coast upper trough will overspread the Great Lakes during the afternoon hours, where diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass will destabilize the boundary layer. MLCAPE may exceed 2000 J/kg in spots (locally higher to 3000 J/kg toward southeast MN given 7.5+ C/km mid-level lapse rates farther to the west). Forecast soundings depict modestly curved and elongated hodographs, supporting multicells and perhaps supercells with some of the stronger storms. Isolated severe wind and hail may accompany the stronger storms. Greater severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if favorable trends in greater storm coverage are realized in later available guidance. ...Northern High Plains... A mid-level impulse will traverse the broader western upper troughing regime and eject into the northern High Plains Thursday afternoon. By this time, steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread upper 60s F dewpoints to promote moderate to locally strong instability, with MLCAPE exceeding 3000 J/kg. Modest turning and strengthening of the winds with height will support elongated hodographs with slight low-level curvature, which will support multicells and splitting supercells given the aforementioned buoyancy. The storms are forecast to be isolated in coverage, with a few instances of severe wind and hail expected. ..Squitieri.. 07/01/2025 Read more