Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... A low-amplitude upper trough will move from the Great Lakes through the Northeast during the Day 4-5/Sat-Sun period. Some enhanced westerly flow aloft and a deepening surface low will accompany this system. While forecast guidance varies with timing and location of these features, some severe potential could develop from portions of the Great Lakes to the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic over the weekend ahead of a cold front. Details are still uncertain regarding where a better chance for severe storms may develop, precluding probabilities. By early next week, upper ridging is forecast for much of the CONUS east of the Rockies while an upper shortwave trough persists over the Northwest. Late in the period, a shortwave impulse may eject from the Northwest upper shortwave and move across the northern Plains, posing some increasing risk for severe potential, though confidence in this scenario remains too low to include an outlook area at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... A low-amplitude upper trough will move from the Great Lakes through the Northeast during the Day 4-5/Sat-Sun period. Some enhanced westerly flow aloft and a deepening surface low will accompany this system. While forecast guidance varies with timing and location of these features, some severe potential could develop from portions of the Great Lakes to the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic over the weekend ahead of a cold front. Details are still uncertain regarding where a better chance for severe storms may develop, precluding probabilities. By early next week, upper ridging is forecast for much of the CONUS east of the Rockies while an upper shortwave trough persists over the Northwest. Late in the period, a shortwave impulse may eject from the Northwest upper shortwave and move across the northern Plains, posing some increasing risk for severe potential, though confidence in this scenario remains too low to include an outlook area at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... A low-amplitude upper trough will move from the Great Lakes through the Northeast during the Day 4-5/Sat-Sun period. Some enhanced westerly flow aloft and a deepening surface low will accompany this system. While forecast guidance varies with timing and location of these features, some severe potential could develop from portions of the Great Lakes to the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic over the weekend ahead of a cold front. Details are still uncertain regarding where a better chance for severe storms may develop, precluding probabilities. By early next week, upper ridging is forecast for much of the CONUS east of the Rockies while an upper shortwave trough persists over the Northwest. Late in the period, a shortwave impulse may eject from the Northwest upper shortwave and move across the northern Plains, posing some increasing risk for severe potential, though confidence in this scenario remains too low to include an outlook area at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... A low-amplitude upper trough will move from the Great Lakes through the Northeast during the Day 4-5/Sat-Sun period. Some enhanced westerly flow aloft and a deepening surface low will accompany this system. While forecast guidance varies with timing and location of these features, some severe potential could develop from portions of the Great Lakes to the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic over the weekend ahead of a cold front. Details are still uncertain regarding where a better chance for severe storms may develop, precluding probabilities. By early next week, upper ridging is forecast for much of the CONUS east of the Rockies while an upper shortwave trough persists over the Northwest. Late in the period, a shortwave impulse may eject from the Northwest upper shortwave and move across the northern Plains, posing some increasing risk for severe potential, though confidence in this scenario remains too low to include an outlook area at this time. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appear low/uncertain on Friday. ...Synopsis... Broad, cyclonic upper flow will persist across the northern tier of the U.S. on Friday. Meanwhile, the subtropical ridge will intensify over the Southeast and southern Plains. A weak shortwave impulse and/or MCV is forecast to move from the OH Valley toward the Chesapeake Bay vicinity near a stalled surface front. This may provide focus for some severe potential Friday afternoon/early evening. However, confidence in this scenario is low as prior day's convection will heavily influence convective evolution on Friday. Further west, a surface trough/weak lee low development across the central High Plains will allow for northward transport of richer boundary layer moisture from the southern in the central and northern Plains. Forcing mechanisms are unclear, and capping may suppress convection. If storms can develop in the warm advection regime, some severe potential would be possible given the very moist and unstable environment. Large model disparity also is noted in the location and evolution of the Plains surface low. Overall the risk appears too uncertain/conditional at this time to include probabilities. ..Leitman.. 07/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appear low/uncertain on Friday. ...Synopsis... Broad, cyclonic upper flow will persist across the northern tier of the U.S. on Friday. Meanwhile, the subtropical ridge will intensify over the Southeast and southern Plains. A weak shortwave impulse and/or MCV is forecast to move from the OH Valley toward the Chesapeake Bay vicinity near a stalled surface front. This may provide focus for some severe potential Friday afternoon/early evening. However, confidence in this scenario is low as prior day's convection will heavily influence convective evolution on Friday. Further west, a surface trough/weak lee low development across the central High Plains will allow for northward transport of richer boundary layer moisture from the southern in the central and northern Plains. Forcing mechanisms are unclear, and capping may suppress convection. If storms can develop in the warm advection regime, some severe potential would be possible given the very moist and unstable environment. Large model disparity also is noted in the location and evolution of the Plains surface low. Overall the risk appears too uncertain/conditional at this time to include probabilities. ..Leitman.. 07/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appear low/uncertain on Friday. ...Synopsis... Broad, cyclonic upper flow will persist across the northern tier of the U.S. on Friday. Meanwhile, the subtropical ridge will intensify over the Southeast and southern Plains. A weak shortwave impulse and/or MCV is forecast to move from the OH Valley toward the Chesapeake Bay vicinity near a stalled surface front. This may provide focus for some severe potential Friday afternoon/early evening. However, confidence in this scenario is low as prior day's convection will heavily influence convective evolution on Friday. Further west, a surface trough/weak lee low development across the central High Plains will allow for northward transport of richer boundary layer moisture from the southern in the central and northern Plains. Forcing mechanisms are unclear, and capping may suppress convection. If storms can develop in the warm advection regime, some severe potential would be possible given the very moist and unstable environment. Large model disparity also is noted in the location and evolution of the Plains surface low. Overall the risk appears too uncertain/conditional at this time to include probabilities. ..Leitman.. 07/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appear low/uncertain on Friday. ...Synopsis... Broad, cyclonic upper flow will persist across the northern tier of the U.S. on Friday. Meanwhile, the subtropical ridge will intensify over the Southeast and southern Plains. A weak shortwave impulse and/or MCV is forecast to move from the OH Valley toward the Chesapeake Bay vicinity near a stalled surface front. This may provide focus for some severe potential Friday afternoon/early evening. However, confidence in this scenario is low as prior day's convection will heavily influence convective evolution on Friday. Further west, a surface trough/weak lee low development across the central High Plains will allow for northward transport of richer boundary layer moisture from the southern in the central and northern Plains. Forcing mechanisms are unclear, and capping may suppress convection. If storms can develop in the warm advection regime, some severe potential would be possible given the very moist and unstable environment. Large model disparity also is noted in the location and evolution of the Plains surface low. Overall the risk appears too uncertain/conditional at this time to include probabilities. ..Leitman.. 07/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appear low/uncertain on Friday. ...Synopsis... Broad, cyclonic upper flow will persist across the northern tier of the U.S. on Friday. Meanwhile, the subtropical ridge will intensify over the Southeast and southern Plains. A weak shortwave impulse and/or MCV is forecast to move from the OH Valley toward the Chesapeake Bay vicinity near a stalled surface front. This may provide focus for some severe potential Friday afternoon/early evening. However, confidence in this scenario is low as prior day's convection will heavily influence convective evolution on Friday. Further west, a surface trough/weak lee low development across the central High Plains will allow for northward transport of richer boundary layer moisture from the southern in the central and northern Plains. Forcing mechanisms are unclear, and capping may suppress convection. If storms can develop in the warm advection regime, some severe potential would be possible given the very moist and unstable environment. Large model disparity also is noted in the location and evolution of the Plains surface low. Overall the risk appears too uncertain/conditional at this time to include probabilities. ..Leitman.. 07/16/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... Moisture will increase on D2/Thursday across the Southwest with a cut off low off the coast of Baja California. This moisture aided by upper-level forcing will bring an increase in thunderstorm activity across much of Arizona into southern Utah with increasing chances for wetting rainfall. On the fringes of the deeper moisture plume, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of western Colorado into Utah, eastern Nevada, southern Idaho, and southwestern Wyoming. As such, a broad area of isolated dry thunderstorms was maintained with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... Moisture will increase on D2/Thursday across the Southwest with a cut off low off the coast of Baja California. This moisture aided by upper-level forcing will bring an increase in thunderstorm activity across much of Arizona into southern Utah with increasing chances for wetting rainfall. On the fringes of the deeper moisture plume, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of western Colorado into Utah, eastern Nevada, southern Idaho, and southwestern Wyoming. As such, a broad area of isolated dry thunderstorms was maintained with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... Moisture will increase on D2/Thursday across the Southwest with a cut off low off the coast of Baja California. This moisture aided by upper-level forcing will bring an increase in thunderstorm activity across much of Arizona into southern Utah with increasing chances for wetting rainfall. On the fringes of the deeper moisture plume, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of western Colorado into Utah, eastern Nevada, southern Idaho, and southwestern Wyoming. As such, a broad area of isolated dry thunderstorms was maintained with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... Moisture will increase on D2/Thursday across the Southwest with a cut off low off the coast of Baja California. This moisture aided by upper-level forcing will bring an increase in thunderstorm activity across much of Arizona into southern Utah with increasing chances for wetting rainfall. On the fringes of the deeper moisture plume, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of western Colorado into Utah, eastern Nevada, southern Idaho, and southwestern Wyoming. As such, a broad area of isolated dry thunderstorms was maintained with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... Moisture will increase on D2/Thursday across the Southwest with a cut off low off the coast of Baja California. This moisture aided by upper-level forcing will bring an increase in thunderstorm activity across much of Arizona into southern Utah with increasing chances for wetting rainfall. On the fringes of the deeper moisture plume, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of western Colorado into Utah, eastern Nevada, southern Idaho, and southwestern Wyoming. As such, a broad area of isolated dry thunderstorms was maintained with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN COLORADO INTO EASTERN UTAH... ...Synopsis... A departing mid-level trough will bring continued breezy conditions across portions of southern Nevada into west-central Utah. This will overlap with relative humidity reductions around 10-15 mph bringing Elevated fire weather conditions. In addition to the background flow, nearby high based convection will likely bring gusty and erratic winds. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorms is expected across northern AZ into western CO, UT, southern WY, and portions of eastern NV. Across western Colorado into eastern Utah, forcing for ascent with the upper-level trough will aid in more scattered coverage of thunderstorm activity. Sounding profiles within this region show elevated instability amid very dry low-levels which will promote high based convection with efficient lightning production and little to no measurable precipitation. Fuels within this region remain critically dry with several ongoing fires. ..Thornton.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN COLORADO INTO EASTERN UTAH... ...Synopsis... A departing mid-level trough will bring continued breezy conditions across portions of southern Nevada into west-central Utah. This will overlap with relative humidity reductions around 10-15 mph bringing Elevated fire weather conditions. In addition to the background flow, nearby high based convection will likely bring gusty and erratic winds. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorms is expected across northern AZ into western CO, UT, southern WY, and portions of eastern NV. Across western Colorado into eastern Utah, forcing for ascent with the upper-level trough will aid in more scattered coverage of thunderstorm activity. Sounding profiles within this region show elevated instability amid very dry low-levels which will promote high based convection with efficient lightning production and little to no measurable precipitation. Fuels within this region remain critically dry with several ongoing fires. ..Thornton.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN COLORADO INTO EASTERN UTAH... ...Synopsis... A departing mid-level trough will bring continued breezy conditions across portions of southern Nevada into west-central Utah. This will overlap with relative humidity reductions around 10-15 mph bringing Elevated fire weather conditions. In addition to the background flow, nearby high based convection will likely bring gusty and erratic winds. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorms is expected across northern AZ into western CO, UT, southern WY, and portions of eastern NV. Across western Colorado into eastern Utah, forcing for ascent with the upper-level trough will aid in more scattered coverage of thunderstorm activity. Sounding profiles within this region show elevated instability amid very dry low-levels which will promote high based convection with efficient lightning production and little to no measurable precipitation. Fuels within this region remain critically dry with several ongoing fires. ..Thornton.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN COLORADO INTO EASTERN UTAH... ...Synopsis... A departing mid-level trough will bring continued breezy conditions across portions of southern Nevada into west-central Utah. This will overlap with relative humidity reductions around 10-15 mph bringing Elevated fire weather conditions. In addition to the background flow, nearby high based convection will likely bring gusty and erratic winds. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorms is expected across northern AZ into western CO, UT, southern WY, and portions of eastern NV. Across western Colorado into eastern Utah, forcing for ascent with the upper-level trough will aid in more scattered coverage of thunderstorm activity. Sounding profiles within this region show elevated instability amid very dry low-levels which will promote high based convection with efficient lightning production and little to no measurable precipitation. Fuels within this region remain critically dry with several ongoing fires. ..Thornton.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN COLORADO INTO EASTERN UTAH... ...Synopsis... A departing mid-level trough will bring continued breezy conditions across portions of southern Nevada into west-central Utah. This will overlap with relative humidity reductions around 10-15 mph bringing Elevated fire weather conditions. In addition to the background flow, nearby high based convection will likely bring gusty and erratic winds. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorms is expected across northern AZ into western CO, UT, southern WY, and portions of eastern NV. Across western Colorado into eastern Utah, forcing for ascent with the upper-level trough will aid in more scattered coverage of thunderstorm activity. Sounding profiles within this region show elevated instability amid very dry low-levels which will promote high based convection with efficient lightning production and little to no measurable precipitation. Fuels within this region remain critically dry with several ongoing fires. ..Thornton.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0516 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 516 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE HSI TO 15 W LNK TO 25 ENE LNK TO 5 WNW OMA TO 15 WSW DNS TO 20 N DNS. ..BENTLEY..07/16/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 516 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC071-129-155-160740- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FREMONT MILLS POTTAWATTAMIE KSC089-183-160740- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JEWELL SMITH NEC025-035-059-067-081-095-097-109-127-129-131-133-151-153-159- 169-181-185-160740- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS CLAY FILLMORE GAGE HAMILTON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LANCASTER NEMAHA Read more