Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Upper-level ridging within the West will slowly shift into the Plains this weekend and into perhaps the middle of next week. Modest to moderate mid-level flow will generally continue across the Midwest/Northeast. In the West, current guidance shows a trough slowly making progress east next week. Model guidance has shown a high degree of variability with regard to how this western trough will evolve through time. Expansive surface high pressure will be present in parts of the Plains and points eastward. With time, this high will move east and promote southerly return flow across the Plains. This process will accelerate as the western trough approaches. While some strong to severe storms will be possible as moisture returns northward, the timing and location of this potential largely depends on where surface boundaries set up and where smaller scale perturbations will eject into the Plains. The predictability of these features remains low at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Upper-level ridging within the West will slowly shift into the Plains this weekend and into perhaps the middle of next week. Modest to moderate mid-level flow will generally continue across the Midwest/Northeast. In the West, current guidance shows a trough slowly making progress east next week. Model guidance has shown a high degree of variability with regard to how this western trough will evolve through time. Expansive surface high pressure will be present in parts of the Plains and points eastward. With time, this high will move east and promote southerly return flow across the Plains. This process will accelerate as the western trough approaches. While some strong to severe storms will be possible as moisture returns northward, the timing and location of this potential largely depends on where surface boundaries set up and where smaller scale perturbations will eject into the Plains. The predictability of these features remains low at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Upper-level ridging within the West will slowly shift into the Plains this weekend and into perhaps the middle of next week. Modest to moderate mid-level flow will generally continue across the Midwest/Northeast. In the West, current guidance shows a trough slowly making progress east next week. Model guidance has shown a high degree of variability with regard to how this western trough will evolve through time. Expansive surface high pressure will be present in parts of the Plains and points eastward. With time, this high will move east and promote southerly return flow across the Plains. This process will accelerate as the western trough approaches. While some strong to severe storms will be possible as moisture returns northward, the timing and location of this potential largely depends on where surface boundaries set up and where smaller scale perturbations will eject into the Plains. The predictability of these features remains low at this time. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for severe weather appears low on Sunday. ...Carolinas... With the Northeast trough eventually moving offshore by early Sunday morning, a cold front will continue to progress southeastward on Sunday. Some remaining, modestly strong mid-level flow will reside on the southern flank of the trough within parts of the Carolinas. The timing of the front will be key to whether severe potential exists. The ECMWF is the only guidance showing convection occurring onshore. Uncertainty remains too high for severe probabilities. ...Parts of eastern Colorado into the Raton Mesa... Minor mid-level flow enhancement within the upper-level ridge will exist across parts of the central/southern Rockies. Modest westerly/northwesterly flow aloft and weak southeasterly surface winds near the lee trough could allow for storm organization. However, questions remain whether capping will fully erode in the High Plains. If activity can move off of the terrain, it may remain elevated. While a stronger storm or two could occur, confidence in a more organized severe threat remains limited. ..Wendt.. 09/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for severe weather appears low on Sunday. ...Carolinas... With the Northeast trough eventually moving offshore by early Sunday morning, a cold front will continue to progress southeastward on Sunday. Some remaining, modestly strong mid-level flow will reside on the southern flank of the trough within parts of the Carolinas. The timing of the front will be key to whether severe potential exists. The ECMWF is the only guidance showing convection occurring onshore. Uncertainty remains too high for severe probabilities. ...Parts of eastern Colorado into the Raton Mesa... Minor mid-level flow enhancement within the upper-level ridge will exist across parts of the central/southern Rockies. Modest westerly/northwesterly flow aloft and weak southeasterly surface winds near the lee trough could allow for storm organization. However, questions remain whether capping will fully erode in the High Plains. If activity can move off of the terrain, it may remain elevated. While a stronger storm or two could occur, confidence in a more organized severe threat remains limited. ..Wendt.. 09/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for severe weather appears low on Sunday. ...Carolinas... With the Northeast trough eventually moving offshore by early Sunday morning, a cold front will continue to progress southeastward on Sunday. Some remaining, modestly strong mid-level flow will reside on the southern flank of the trough within parts of the Carolinas. The timing of the front will be key to whether severe potential exists. The ECMWF is the only guidance showing convection occurring onshore. Uncertainty remains too high for severe probabilities. ...Parts of eastern Colorado into the Raton Mesa... Minor mid-level flow enhancement within the upper-level ridge will exist across parts of the central/southern Rockies. Modest westerly/northwesterly flow aloft and weak southeasterly surface winds near the lee trough could allow for storm organization. However, questions remain whether capping will fully erode in the High Plains. If activity can move off of the terrain, it may remain elevated. While a stronger storm or two could occur, confidence in a more organized severe threat remains limited. ..Wendt.. 09/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for severe weather appears low on Sunday. ...Carolinas... With the Northeast trough eventually moving offshore by early Sunday morning, a cold front will continue to progress southeastward on Sunday. Some remaining, modestly strong mid-level flow will reside on the southern flank of the trough within parts of the Carolinas. The timing of the front will be key to whether severe potential exists. The ECMWF is the only guidance showing convection occurring onshore. Uncertainty remains too high for severe probabilities. ...Parts of eastern Colorado into the Raton Mesa... Minor mid-level flow enhancement within the upper-level ridge will exist across parts of the central/southern Rockies. Modest westerly/northwesterly flow aloft and weak southeasterly surface winds near the lee trough could allow for storm organization. However, questions remain whether capping will fully erode in the High Plains. If activity can move off of the terrain, it may remain elevated. While a stronger storm or two could occur, confidence in a more organized severe threat remains limited. ..Wendt.. 09/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for severe weather appears low on Sunday. ...Carolinas... With the Northeast trough eventually moving offshore by early Sunday morning, a cold front will continue to progress southeastward on Sunday. Some remaining, modestly strong mid-level flow will reside on the southern flank of the trough within parts of the Carolinas. The timing of the front will be key to whether severe potential exists. The ECMWF is the only guidance showing convection occurring onshore. Uncertainty remains too high for severe probabilities. ...Parts of eastern Colorado into the Raton Mesa... Minor mid-level flow enhancement within the upper-level ridge will exist across parts of the central/southern Rockies. Modest westerly/northwesterly flow aloft and weak southeasterly surface winds near the lee trough could allow for storm organization. However, questions remain whether capping will fully erode in the High Plains. If activity can move off of the terrain, it may remain elevated. While a stronger storm or two could occur, confidence in a more organized severe threat remains limited. ..Wendt.. 09/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for severe weather appears low on Sunday. ...Carolinas... With the Northeast trough eventually moving offshore by early Sunday morning, a cold front will continue to progress southeastward on Sunday. Some remaining, modestly strong mid-level flow will reside on the southern flank of the trough within parts of the Carolinas. The timing of the front will be key to whether severe potential exists. The ECMWF is the only guidance showing convection occurring onshore. Uncertainty remains too high for severe probabilities. ...Parts of eastern Colorado into the Raton Mesa... Minor mid-level flow enhancement within the upper-level ridge will exist across parts of the central/southern Rockies. Modest westerly/northwesterly flow aloft and weak southeasterly surface winds near the lee trough could allow for storm organization. However, questions remain whether capping will fully erode in the High Plains. If activity can move off of the terrain, it may remain elevated. While a stronger storm or two could occur, confidence in a more organized severe threat remains limited. ..Wendt.. 09/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for severe weather appears low on Sunday. ...Carolinas... With the Northeast trough eventually moving offshore by early Sunday morning, a cold front will continue to progress southeastward on Sunday. Some remaining, modestly strong mid-level flow will reside on the southern flank of the trough within parts of the Carolinas. The timing of the front will be key to whether severe potential exists. The ECMWF is the only guidance showing convection occurring onshore. Uncertainty remains too high for severe probabilities. ...Parts of eastern Colorado into the Raton Mesa... Minor mid-level flow enhancement within the upper-level ridge will exist across parts of the central/southern Rockies. Modest westerly/northwesterly flow aloft and weak southeasterly surface winds near the lee trough could allow for storm organization. However, questions remain whether capping will fully erode in the High Plains. If activity can move off of the terrain, it may remain elevated. While a stronger storm or two could occur, confidence in a more organized severe threat remains limited. ..Wendt.. 09/05/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will continue to approach the East Coast as upper ridging builds over the Rockies and a mid-level trough remains in place along the Pacific Northwest coast tomorrow (Saturday). A mid-level impulse will pivot around the northwestern trough, providing locally stronger upper support for dry and breezy conditions across northern California into southern Oregon. At the moment, the overlap of 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH seem to be too localized to warrant Elevated highlights at this time. Of greater concern is the development of scattered thunderstorms ahead of the mid-level trough over parts of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Here, a mix of wet and dry storm modes will overspread a dry boundary layer, as well as dry fuel beds. Storm motions will be relatively slow. However, the high receptiveness of the fuels may compensate for possible wet, slow moving storms to support lightning-induced ignitions, warranting the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 09/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will continue to approach the East Coast as upper ridging builds over the Rockies and a mid-level trough remains in place along the Pacific Northwest coast tomorrow (Saturday). A mid-level impulse will pivot around the northwestern trough, providing locally stronger upper support for dry and breezy conditions across northern California into southern Oregon. At the moment, the overlap of 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH seem to be too localized to warrant Elevated highlights at this time. Of greater concern is the development of scattered thunderstorms ahead of the mid-level trough over parts of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Here, a mix of wet and dry storm modes will overspread a dry boundary layer, as well as dry fuel beds. Storm motions will be relatively slow. However, the high receptiveness of the fuels may compensate for possible wet, slow moving storms to support lightning-induced ignitions, warranting the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 09/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will continue to approach the East Coast as upper ridging builds over the Rockies and a mid-level trough remains in place along the Pacific Northwest coast tomorrow (Saturday). A mid-level impulse will pivot around the northwestern trough, providing locally stronger upper support for dry and breezy conditions across northern California into southern Oregon. At the moment, the overlap of 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH seem to be too localized to warrant Elevated highlights at this time. Of greater concern is the development of scattered thunderstorms ahead of the mid-level trough over parts of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Here, a mix of wet and dry storm modes will overspread a dry boundary layer, as well as dry fuel beds. Storm motions will be relatively slow. However, the high receptiveness of the fuels may compensate for possible wet, slow moving storms to support lightning-induced ignitions, warranting the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 09/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will continue to approach the East Coast as upper ridging builds over the Rockies and a mid-level trough remains in place along the Pacific Northwest coast tomorrow (Saturday). A mid-level impulse will pivot around the northwestern trough, providing locally stronger upper support for dry and breezy conditions across northern California into southern Oregon. At the moment, the overlap of 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH seem to be too localized to warrant Elevated highlights at this time. Of greater concern is the development of scattered thunderstorms ahead of the mid-level trough over parts of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Here, a mix of wet and dry storm modes will overspread a dry boundary layer, as well as dry fuel beds. Storm motions will be relatively slow. However, the high receptiveness of the fuels may compensate for possible wet, slow moving storms to support lightning-induced ignitions, warranting the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 09/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will continue to approach the East Coast as upper ridging builds over the Rockies and a mid-level trough remains in place along the Pacific Northwest coast tomorrow (Saturday). A mid-level impulse will pivot around the northwestern trough, providing locally stronger upper support for dry and breezy conditions across northern California into southern Oregon. At the moment, the overlap of 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH seem to be too localized to warrant Elevated highlights at this time. Of greater concern is the development of scattered thunderstorms ahead of the mid-level trough over parts of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Here, a mix of wet and dry storm modes will overspread a dry boundary layer, as well as dry fuel beds. Storm motions will be relatively slow. However, the high receptiveness of the fuels may compensate for possible wet, slow moving storms to support lightning-induced ignitions, warranting the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 09/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will continue to approach the East Coast as upper ridging builds over the Rockies and a mid-level trough remains in place along the Pacific Northwest coast tomorrow (Saturday). A mid-level impulse will pivot around the northwestern trough, providing locally stronger upper support for dry and breezy conditions across northern California into southern Oregon. At the moment, the overlap of 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH seem to be too localized to warrant Elevated highlights at this time. Of greater concern is the development of scattered thunderstorms ahead of the mid-level trough over parts of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Here, a mix of wet and dry storm modes will overspread a dry boundary layer, as well as dry fuel beds. Storm motions will be relatively slow. However, the high receptiveness of the fuels may compensate for possible wet, slow moving storms to support lightning-induced ignitions, warranting the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 09/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Midwest/Great Lakes Regions as upper ridging remains in place over the Interior West, but with a small but pronounced mid-level impulse impinging on the northern California coastline today. This impulse, in tandem with adequate instability, will provide enough lift to support at least scattered thunderstorms to portions of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon into the overnight hours. These storms will move atop a modestly dry boundary layer, with wet and dry storm modes both possible. Nonetheless, these storms will overspread dry fuel beds, especially from the central/northern Cascades and points east. Dry thunderstorm highlights remain in place for the possibility of lightning strikes (some dry) posing a hazard for fuel ignition. ..Squitieri.. 09/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Midwest/Great Lakes Regions as upper ridging remains in place over the Interior West, but with a small but pronounced mid-level impulse impinging on the northern California coastline today. This impulse, in tandem with adequate instability, will provide enough lift to support at least scattered thunderstorms to portions of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon into the overnight hours. These storms will move atop a modestly dry boundary layer, with wet and dry storm modes both possible. Nonetheless, these storms will overspread dry fuel beds, especially from the central/northern Cascades and points east. Dry thunderstorm highlights remain in place for the possibility of lightning strikes (some dry) posing a hazard for fuel ignition. ..Squitieri.. 09/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Midwest/Great Lakes Regions as upper ridging remains in place over the Interior West, but with a small but pronounced mid-level impulse impinging on the northern California coastline today. This impulse, in tandem with adequate instability, will provide enough lift to support at least scattered thunderstorms to portions of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon into the overnight hours. These storms will move atop a modestly dry boundary layer, with wet and dry storm modes both possible. Nonetheless, these storms will overspread dry fuel beds, especially from the central/northern Cascades and points east. Dry thunderstorm highlights remain in place for the possibility of lightning strikes (some dry) posing a hazard for fuel ignition. ..Squitieri.. 09/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Midwest/Great Lakes Regions as upper ridging remains in place over the Interior West, but with a small but pronounced mid-level impulse impinging on the northern California coastline today. This impulse, in tandem with adequate instability, will provide enough lift to support at least scattered thunderstorms to portions of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon into the overnight hours. These storms will move atop a modestly dry boundary layer, with wet and dry storm modes both possible. Nonetheless, these storms will overspread dry fuel beds, especially from the central/northern Cascades and points east. Dry thunderstorm highlights remain in place for the possibility of lightning strikes (some dry) posing a hazard for fuel ignition. ..Squitieri.. 09/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more