Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Thu Sep 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... A departing mid-level wave will aid in thunderstorm development across portions of northern California into Washington this afternoon. Storm motions today will be slower than in recent days. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms is expected. However, mainly mid-level moisture and dry sub-cloud layer should reduce rainfall amounts and increase potential for dry lightning strikes to occur. Activity over the last 24-48 hours has generally produced 0.25" of rain with several new fires detected. An area of isolated dry thunderstorm risk was maintained across portions of northern California into central Oregon with this outlook. A strike or two may extend as far north as the Washington Cascades. ..Thornton.. 09/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Thu Sep 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... A departing mid-level wave will aid in thunderstorm development across portions of northern California into Washington this afternoon. Storm motions today will be slower than in recent days. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms is expected. However, mainly mid-level moisture and dry sub-cloud layer should reduce rainfall amounts and increase potential for dry lightning strikes to occur. Activity over the last 24-48 hours has generally produced 0.25" of rain with several new fires detected. An area of isolated dry thunderstorm risk was maintained across portions of northern California into central Oregon with this outlook. A strike or two may extend as far north as the Washington Cascades. ..Thornton.. 09/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0605 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 605 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE P28 TO 50 NNW BVO TO 30 WNW SGF. ..THORNTON..09/04/25 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...DDC...SGF...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 605 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC019-035-099-125-040340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAUTAUQUA COWLEY LABETTE MONTGOMERY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0605 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 605 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE P28 TO 50 NNW BVO TO 30 WNW SGF. ..THORNTON..09/04/25 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...DDC...SGF...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 605 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC019-035-099-125-040340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAUTAUQUA COWLEY LABETTE MONTGOMERY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 605 SEVERE TSTM KS MO 032220Z - 040400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 605 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 520 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Eastern Kansas Western Missouri * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 520 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Intense thunderstorms are expected to develop and track southward across the watch area this evening. Supercells capable of large hail are the main concern, along with some risk of damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles north northwest of Medicine Lodge KS to 75 miles east northeast of Chanute KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 35025. ...Hart Read more

WW 0605 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 605 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N AVK TO 30 WSW ICT TO 35 ESE EMP TO 20 WNW OJC. ..THORNTON..09/04/25 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...DDC...SGF...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 605 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-003-011-015-019-031-035-037-049-059-073-077-099-107-121- 125-133-173-191-205-207-040240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN ANDERSON BOURBON BUTLER CHAUTAUQUA COFFEY COWLEY CRAWFORD ELK FRANKLIN GREENWOOD HARPER LABETTE LINN MIAMI MONTGOMERY NEOSHO SEDGWICK SUMNER WILSON WOODSON MOC011-013-037-039-185-217-040240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTON BATES CASS CEDAR ST. CLAIR VERNON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

MD 2029 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 605... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2029 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0720 PM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025 Areas affected...portions of southeastern Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 605... Valid 040020Z - 040115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 605 continues. SUMMARY...Supercell capable of large to very large hail will continue to move southward. DISCUSSION...A supercell that has produced numerous large hail reports including hail up to baseball size (2.75"). Recent reports of winds 60-70 mph have been reported as well, suggesting potential for wind driven hail. It appears this supercell will be sustained downstream for the next hour or so, given the favorable environment with ample MLCAPE, deep layer shear, and steep lapse rates. Hail 2-3 inches and gusts 60-70 mph will be possible. A second supercell is also tracking southward behind the lead cell and will also be capable of large hail and damaging wind. ..Thornton.. 09/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT... LAT...LON 37739768 37549759 37359746 37259735 37189712 37179679 37269652 37529654 37829672 38079687 38369713 38319741 38309766 38239787 37999779 37739768 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL KS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail remains possible across mainly southern Kansas this evening. ...KS/MO/OK... Large to very large hail up to 3 inches in diameter was prolific in several early-evening supercells across east-central KS. This has recently become confined to the I-135/35 corridors into south-central KS. These cells should wane over the next couple hours with rapidly increasing nocturnal MLCIN. Widely scattered elevated convection may persist along and to the rear of the undercutting, southward-sagging surface cold front. Adequate speed shear within the northwesterly mid to upper flow regime may pose a threat for small to marginally severe hail across southern MO through early tonight. ..Grams.. 09/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL KS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail remains possible across mainly southern Kansas this evening. ...KS/MO/OK... Large to very large hail up to 3 inches in diameter was prolific in several early-evening supercells across east-central KS. This has recently become confined to the I-135/35 corridors into south-central KS. These cells should wane over the next couple hours with rapidly increasing nocturnal MLCIN. Widely scattered elevated convection may persist along and to the rear of the undercutting, southward-sagging surface cold front. Adequate speed shear within the northwesterly mid to upper flow regime may pose a threat for small to marginally severe hail across southern MO through early tonight. ..Grams.. 09/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL KS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail remains possible across mainly southern Kansas this evening. ...KS/MO/OK... Large to very large hail up to 3 inches in diameter was prolific in several early-evening supercells across east-central KS. This has recently become confined to the I-135/35 corridors into south-central KS. These cells should wane over the next couple hours with rapidly increasing nocturnal MLCIN. Widely scattered elevated convection may persist along and to the rear of the undercutting, southward-sagging surface cold front. Adequate speed shear within the northwesterly mid to upper flow regime may pose a threat for small to marginally severe hail across southern MO through early tonight. ..Grams.. 09/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL KS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail remains possible across mainly southern Kansas this evening. ...KS/MO/OK... Large to very large hail up to 3 inches in diameter was prolific in several early-evening supercells across east-central KS. This has recently become confined to the I-135/35 corridors into south-central KS. These cells should wane over the next couple hours with rapidly increasing nocturnal MLCIN. Widely scattered elevated convection may persist along and to the rear of the undercutting, southward-sagging surface cold front. Adequate speed shear within the northwesterly mid to upper flow regime may pose a threat for small to marginally severe hail across southern MO through early tonight. ..Grams.. 09/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL KS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail remains possible across mainly southern Kansas this evening. ...KS/MO/OK... Large to very large hail up to 3 inches in diameter was prolific in several early-evening supercells across east-central KS. This has recently become confined to the I-135/35 corridors into south-central KS. These cells should wane over the next couple hours with rapidly increasing nocturnal MLCIN. Widely scattered elevated convection may persist along and to the rear of the undercutting, southward-sagging surface cold front. Adequate speed shear within the northwesterly mid to upper flow regime may pose a threat for small to marginally severe hail across southern MO through early tonight. ..Grams.. 09/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL KS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail remains possible across mainly southern Kansas this evening. ...KS/MO/OK... Large to very large hail up to 3 inches in diameter was prolific in several early-evening supercells across east-central KS. This has recently become confined to the I-135/35 corridors into south-central KS. These cells should wane over the next couple hours with rapidly increasing nocturnal MLCIN. Widely scattered elevated convection may persist along and to the rear of the undercutting, southward-sagging surface cold front. Adequate speed shear within the northwesterly mid to upper flow regime may pose a threat for small to marginally severe hail across southern MO through early tonight. ..Grams.. 09/04/2025 Read more

WW 0605 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 605 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW P28 TO 30 NE HUT TO 20 NNW EMP TO 20 WSW TOP. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2029 ..THORNTON..09/04/25 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...DDC...SGF...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 605 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-003-007-011-015-017-019-031-035-037-049-059-073-077-079- 095-099-107-111-115-121-125-133-139-151-155-173-191-205-207- 040140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN ANDERSON BARBER BOURBON BUTLER CHASE CHAUTAUQUA COFFEY COWLEY CRAWFORD ELK FRANKLIN GREENWOOD HARPER HARVEY KINGMAN LABETTE LINN LYON MARION MIAMI MONTGOMERY NEOSHO OSAGE PRATT RENO SEDGWICK SUMNER WILSON WOODSON MOC011-013-037-217-040140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Sep 3 23:44:08 UTC 2025.

WW 0605 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 605 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE RSL TO 35 ESE SLN TO 10 E MHK. ..THORNTON..09/03/25 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...DDC...SGF...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 605 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-003-007-011-015-017-019-031-035-037-049-059-073-077-079- 095-099-107-111-113-115-121-125-127-133-139-151-155-159-173-185- 191-205-207-040040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN ANDERSON BARBER BOURBON BUTLER CHASE CHAUTAUQUA COFFEY COWLEY CRAWFORD ELK FRANKLIN GREENWOOD HARPER HARVEY KINGMAN LABETTE LINN LYON MCPHERSON MARION MIAMI MONTGOMERY MORRIS NEOSHO OSAGE PRATT RENO RICE SEDGWICK STAFFORD SUMNER WILSON WOODSON MOC011-013-037-217-040040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 605 SEVERE TSTM KS MO 032220Z - 040400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 605 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 520 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Eastern Kansas Western Missouri * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 520 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Intense thunderstorms are expected to develop and track southward across the watch area this evening. Supercells capable of large hail are the main concern, along with some risk of damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles north northwest of Medicine Lodge KS to 75 miles east northeast of Chanute KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 35025. ...Hart Read more

MD 2028 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 2028 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025 Areas affected...portions of central and eastern Kansas into western Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 032143Z - 032245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Isolated supercells development likely this evening with hail and damaging winds as the primary threat. DISCUSSION...Cumulus development is noted near the surface low and cold front across central Kansas, with a few storms beginning to develop near the surface trough in western/west-central Kansas. This thunderstorm development is occurring on the edge of a region of MLCIN across much of southeastern Kansas in Oklahoma. With daytime heating under mostly sunny skies, temperatures in this region in the low to mid 80s. As the cold front shifts southward, additional thunderstorm development is expected over the next couple of hours. The environment is favorable for supercells, with MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg and shear 40-50 kts. VAD profiles from TWX and ICT show linear hodograph structures, indicative of supercells that favor splits and potential for large hail and damaging winds. A watch will likely be needed soon to cover this potential. ..Thornton/Hart.. 09/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... LAT...LON 39429730 39259630 38989535 38689463 38349441 38079437 37739438 37419455 37099501 37079544 37119613 37139674 37059777 37129852 37259893 37379918 37589939 38109948 38659933 39239870 39429730 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0605 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0605 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Day 3-6/Friday - Pacific Northwest... A mid-level, negatively tilted trough moving into the northern CA/southern OR region on Day 3/Friday will usher in a more favorable convective environment with increasing vertical shear and instability supportive of thunderstorms across much of OR. However, some uncertainty exists in magnitude of sub-cloud moisture content which could bring more wetting rain cores to the area in conjunction with cooling temperatures and higher relative humidity values as the upper-level trough translates eastward through the weekend. The parent Pacific low is expected to bring much cooler temperatures along with wetting rains to much of the Pacific Northwest beginning Day 5/Sunday, mitigating fire weather concerns through late next week. ...Day 3-8/Friday-Wednesday - Eastern CONUS... A broad upper-low will usher in a cold front and subsequent cooler air mass into much of the eastern U.S. Day 3/Friday through early next week. Injection of tropical moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Lorena into the Southwest through Day 4/Saturday will support wetting rains along the cold front across portions of the Southern Plains and Deep south early next week, reducing fire weather concerns. ..Williams.. 09/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more