Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN COLORADO INTO EASTERN UTAH... ...Synopsis... A departing mid-level trough will bring continued breezy conditions across portions of southern Nevada into west-central Utah. This will overlap with relative humidity reductions around 10-15 mph bringing Elevated fire weather conditions. In addition to the background flow, nearby high based convection will likely bring gusty and erratic winds. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorms is expected across northern AZ into western CO, UT, southern WY, and portions of eastern NV. Across western Colorado into eastern Utah, forcing for ascent with the upper-level trough will aid in more scattered coverage of thunderstorm activity. Sounding profiles within this region show elevated instability amid very dry low-levels which will promote high based convection with efficient lightning production and little to no measurable precipitation. Fuels within this region remain critically dry with several ongoing fires. ..Thornton.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN COLORADO INTO EASTERN UTAH... ...Synopsis... A departing mid-level trough will bring continued breezy conditions across portions of southern Nevada into west-central Utah. This will overlap with relative humidity reductions around 10-15 mph bringing Elevated fire weather conditions. In addition to the background flow, nearby high based convection will likely bring gusty and erratic winds. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorms is expected across northern AZ into western CO, UT, southern WY, and portions of eastern NV. Across western Colorado into eastern Utah, forcing for ascent with the upper-level trough will aid in more scattered coverage of thunderstorm activity. Sounding profiles within this region show elevated instability amid very dry low-levels which will promote high based convection with efficient lightning production and little to no measurable precipitation. Fuels within this region remain critically dry with several ongoing fires. ..Thornton.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN COLORADO INTO EASTERN UTAH... ...Synopsis... A departing mid-level trough will bring continued breezy conditions across portions of southern Nevada into west-central Utah. This will overlap with relative humidity reductions around 10-15 mph bringing Elevated fire weather conditions. In addition to the background flow, nearby high based convection will likely bring gusty and erratic winds. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorms is expected across northern AZ into western CO, UT, southern WY, and portions of eastern NV. Across western Colorado into eastern Utah, forcing for ascent with the upper-level trough will aid in more scattered coverage of thunderstorm activity. Sounding profiles within this region show elevated instability amid very dry low-levels which will promote high based convection with efficient lightning production and little to no measurable precipitation. Fuels within this region remain critically dry with several ongoing fires. ..Thornton.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN COLORADO INTO EASTERN UTAH... ...Synopsis... A departing mid-level trough will bring continued breezy conditions across portions of southern Nevada into west-central Utah. This will overlap with relative humidity reductions around 10-15 mph bringing Elevated fire weather conditions. In addition to the background flow, nearby high based convection will likely bring gusty and erratic winds. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorms is expected across northern AZ into western CO, UT, southern WY, and portions of eastern NV. Across western Colorado into eastern Utah, forcing for ascent with the upper-level trough will aid in more scattered coverage of thunderstorm activity. Sounding profiles within this region show elevated instability amid very dry low-levels which will promote high based convection with efficient lightning production and little to no measurable precipitation. Fuels within this region remain critically dry with several ongoing fires. ..Thornton.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0516 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 516 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE HSI TO 15 W LNK TO 25 ENE LNK TO 5 WNW OMA TO 15 WSW DNS TO 20 N DNS. ..BENTLEY..07/16/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 516 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC071-129-155-160740- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FREMONT MILLS POTTAWATTAMIE KSC089-183-160740- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JEWELL SMITH NEC025-035-059-067-081-095-097-109-127-129-131-133-151-153-159- 169-181-185-160740- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS CLAY FILLMORE GAGE HAMILTON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LANCASTER NEMAHA Read more

WW 0516 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 516 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE HSI TO 15 W LNK TO 25 ENE LNK TO 5 WNW OMA TO 15 WSW DNS TO 20 N DNS. ..BENTLEY..07/16/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 516 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC071-129-155-160740- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FREMONT MILLS POTTAWATTAMIE KSC089-183-160740- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JEWELL SMITH NEC025-035-059-067-081-095-097-109-127-129-131-133-151-153-159- 169-181-185-160740- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS CLAY FILLMORE GAGE HAMILTON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LANCASTER NEMAHA Read more

WW 516 SEVERE TSTM IA KS MN NE 160140Z - 160800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 516 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 840 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Iowa Extreme north central Kansas Extreme southwest Minnesota Eastern Nebraska * Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 840 PM until 300 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A line of storms will continue spread east-southeastward through the overnight hours with the potential to produce occasional severe outflow gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail near 1 inch diameter. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles west northwest of Worthington MN to 40 miles west southwest of Beatrice NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 513...WW 514...WW 515... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 30030. ...Thompson Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...MID-ATLANTIC...AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts are possible from southern Missouri into the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast on Thursday. ...Northeast... A shortwave trough is forecast to extend from southern Quebec to near Long Island early Thursday. At the surface, low pressure will track from Lake Huron northeast along the St. Lawrence Valley. A trailing cold front will develop east across the Upper Ohio Valley and Northeast during the afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, a very moist airmass will be in place, supporting MLCAPE values from around 1000-2000 J/kg. While 30-40 kt of westerly flow will overspread portions of the Northeast, effective shear will remain modest, but sufficient for isolated organized cells (20-30 kt). The surface low is likely to remain north of the international border, but the cold front should provide some focus for afternoon/evening thunderstorm activity. However, subsidence behind the morning shortwave and possibly some early day showers and cloud cover could hinder thunderstorm development initially. As a result storms may develop a bit further south and east than previously forecast, and the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been removed for parts of the Upper OH Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity. Storms that do develop across the Northeast still may pose a risk for locally strong gusts, and closer to the surface low, a tornado or two. ...Southern MO/OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic... A seasonally very moist airmass will reside to the south of the southward sagging cold front extending from the MO Ozarks into southern IL/IN/OH. A corridor of strong instability is expected ahead of the front, aided by 70s dewpoints and heating into the mid 80s to mid 90s. Vertical shear will be much weaker with southward extent, but any MCVs from prior day's convection coupled with the sagging cold front, should provide focused for scattered thunderstorm development. Thunderstorm clusters will mainly pose a risk for strong gusts from water laden downdrafts. Additional storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain of WV/VA along a surface trough and ahead of the surface cold front. A similar environment to that further east will exist (high CAPE, weak shear). Thunderstorm clusters may produce isolated strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 07/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...MID-ATLANTIC...AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts are possible from southern Missouri into the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast on Thursday. ...Northeast... A shortwave trough is forecast to extend from southern Quebec to near Long Island early Thursday. At the surface, low pressure will track from Lake Huron northeast along the St. Lawrence Valley. A trailing cold front will develop east across the Upper Ohio Valley and Northeast during the afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, a very moist airmass will be in place, supporting MLCAPE values from around 1000-2000 J/kg. While 30-40 kt of westerly flow will overspread portions of the Northeast, effective shear will remain modest, but sufficient for isolated organized cells (20-30 kt). The surface low is likely to remain north of the international border, but the cold front should provide some focus for afternoon/evening thunderstorm activity. However, subsidence behind the morning shortwave and possibly some early day showers and cloud cover could hinder thunderstorm development initially. As a result storms may develop a bit further south and east than previously forecast, and the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been removed for parts of the Upper OH Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity. Storms that do develop across the Northeast still may pose a risk for locally strong gusts, and closer to the surface low, a tornado or two. ...Southern MO/OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic... A seasonally very moist airmass will reside to the south of the southward sagging cold front extending from the MO Ozarks into southern IL/IN/OH. A corridor of strong instability is expected ahead of the front, aided by 70s dewpoints and heating into the mid 80s to mid 90s. Vertical shear will be much weaker with southward extent, but any MCVs from prior day's convection coupled with the sagging cold front, should provide focused for scattered thunderstorm development. Thunderstorm clusters will mainly pose a risk for strong gusts from water laden downdrafts. Additional storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain of WV/VA along a surface trough and ahead of the surface cold front. A similar environment to that further east will exist (high CAPE, weak shear). Thunderstorm clusters may produce isolated strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 07/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...MID-ATLANTIC...AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts are possible from southern Missouri into the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast on Thursday. ...Northeast... A shortwave trough is forecast to extend from southern Quebec to near Long Island early Thursday. At the surface, low pressure will track from Lake Huron northeast along the St. Lawrence Valley. A trailing cold front will develop east across the Upper Ohio Valley and Northeast during the afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, a very moist airmass will be in place, supporting MLCAPE values from around 1000-2000 J/kg. While 30-40 kt of westerly flow will overspread portions of the Northeast, effective shear will remain modest, but sufficient for isolated organized cells (20-30 kt). The surface low is likely to remain north of the international border, but the cold front should provide some focus for afternoon/evening thunderstorm activity. However, subsidence behind the morning shortwave and possibly some early day showers and cloud cover could hinder thunderstorm development initially. As a result storms may develop a bit further south and east than previously forecast, and the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been removed for parts of the Upper OH Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity. Storms that do develop across the Northeast still may pose a risk for locally strong gusts, and closer to the surface low, a tornado or two. ...Southern MO/OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic... A seasonally very moist airmass will reside to the south of the southward sagging cold front extending from the MO Ozarks into southern IL/IN/OH. A corridor of strong instability is expected ahead of the front, aided by 70s dewpoints and heating into the mid 80s to mid 90s. Vertical shear will be much weaker with southward extent, but any MCVs from prior day's convection coupled with the sagging cold front, should provide focused for scattered thunderstorm development. Thunderstorm clusters will mainly pose a risk for strong gusts from water laden downdrafts. Additional storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain of WV/VA along a surface trough and ahead of the surface cold front. A similar environment to that further east will exist (high CAPE, weak shear). Thunderstorm clusters may produce isolated strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 07/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...MID-ATLANTIC...AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts are possible from southern Missouri into the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast on Thursday. ...Northeast... A shortwave trough is forecast to extend from southern Quebec to near Long Island early Thursday. At the surface, low pressure will track from Lake Huron northeast along the St. Lawrence Valley. A trailing cold front will develop east across the Upper Ohio Valley and Northeast during the afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, a very moist airmass will be in place, supporting MLCAPE values from around 1000-2000 J/kg. While 30-40 kt of westerly flow will overspread portions of the Northeast, effective shear will remain modest, but sufficient for isolated organized cells (20-30 kt). The surface low is likely to remain north of the international border, but the cold front should provide some focus for afternoon/evening thunderstorm activity. However, subsidence behind the morning shortwave and possibly some early day showers and cloud cover could hinder thunderstorm development initially. As a result storms may develop a bit further south and east than previously forecast, and the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been removed for parts of the Upper OH Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity. Storms that do develop across the Northeast still may pose a risk for locally strong gusts, and closer to the surface low, a tornado or two. ...Southern MO/OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic... A seasonally very moist airmass will reside to the south of the southward sagging cold front extending from the MO Ozarks into southern IL/IN/OH. A corridor of strong instability is expected ahead of the front, aided by 70s dewpoints and heating into the mid 80s to mid 90s. Vertical shear will be much weaker with southward extent, but any MCVs from prior day's convection coupled with the sagging cold front, should provide focused for scattered thunderstorm development. Thunderstorm clusters will mainly pose a risk for strong gusts from water laden downdrafts. Additional storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain of WV/VA along a surface trough and ahead of the surface cold front. A similar environment to that further east will exist (high CAPE, weak shear). Thunderstorm clusters may produce isolated strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 07/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...MID-ATLANTIC...AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts are possible from southern Missouri into the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast on Thursday. ...Northeast... A shortwave trough is forecast to extend from southern Quebec to near Long Island early Thursday. At the surface, low pressure will track from Lake Huron northeast along the St. Lawrence Valley. A trailing cold front will develop east across the Upper Ohio Valley and Northeast during the afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, a very moist airmass will be in place, supporting MLCAPE values from around 1000-2000 J/kg. While 30-40 kt of westerly flow will overspread portions of the Northeast, effective shear will remain modest, but sufficient for isolated organized cells (20-30 kt). The surface low is likely to remain north of the international border, but the cold front should provide some focus for afternoon/evening thunderstorm activity. However, subsidence behind the morning shortwave and possibly some early day showers and cloud cover could hinder thunderstorm development initially. As a result storms may develop a bit further south and east than previously forecast, and the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been removed for parts of the Upper OH Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity. Storms that do develop across the Northeast still may pose a risk for locally strong gusts, and closer to the surface low, a tornado or two. ...Southern MO/OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic... A seasonally very moist airmass will reside to the south of the southward sagging cold front extending from the MO Ozarks into southern IL/IN/OH. A corridor of strong instability is expected ahead of the front, aided by 70s dewpoints and heating into the mid 80s to mid 90s. Vertical shear will be much weaker with southward extent, but any MCVs from prior day's convection coupled with the sagging cold front, should provide focused for scattered thunderstorm development. Thunderstorm clusters will mainly pose a risk for strong gusts from water laden downdrafts. Additional storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain of WV/VA along a surface trough and ahead of the surface cold front. A similar environment to that further east will exist (high CAPE, weak shear). Thunderstorm clusters may produce isolated strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 07/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...MID-ATLANTIC...AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts are possible from southern Missouri into the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast on Thursday. ...Northeast... A shortwave trough is forecast to extend from southern Quebec to near Long Island early Thursday. At the surface, low pressure will track from Lake Huron northeast along the St. Lawrence Valley. A trailing cold front will develop east across the Upper Ohio Valley and Northeast during the afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, a very moist airmass will be in place, supporting MLCAPE values from around 1000-2000 J/kg. While 30-40 kt of westerly flow will overspread portions of the Northeast, effective shear will remain modest, but sufficient for isolated organized cells (20-30 kt). The surface low is likely to remain north of the international border, but the cold front should provide some focus for afternoon/evening thunderstorm activity. However, subsidence behind the morning shortwave and possibly some early day showers and cloud cover could hinder thunderstorm development initially. As a result storms may develop a bit further south and east than previously forecast, and the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been removed for parts of the Upper OH Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity. Storms that do develop across the Northeast still may pose a risk for locally strong gusts, and closer to the surface low, a tornado or two. ...Southern MO/OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic... A seasonally very moist airmass will reside to the south of the southward sagging cold front extending from the MO Ozarks into southern IL/IN/OH. A corridor of strong instability is expected ahead of the front, aided by 70s dewpoints and heating into the mid 80s to mid 90s. Vertical shear will be much weaker with southward extent, but any MCVs from prior day's convection coupled with the sagging cold front, should provide focused for scattered thunderstorm development. Thunderstorm clusters will mainly pose a risk for strong gusts from water laden downdrafts. Additional storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain of WV/VA along a surface trough and ahead of the surface cold front. A similar environment to that further east will exist (high CAPE, weak shear). Thunderstorm clusters may produce isolated strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 07/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...MID-ATLANTIC...AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts are possible from southern Missouri into the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast on Thursday. ...Northeast... A shortwave trough is forecast to extend from southern Quebec to near Long Island early Thursday. At the surface, low pressure will track from Lake Huron northeast along the St. Lawrence Valley. A trailing cold front will develop east across the Upper Ohio Valley and Northeast during the afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, a very moist airmass will be in place, supporting MLCAPE values from around 1000-2000 J/kg. While 30-40 kt of westerly flow will overspread portions of the Northeast, effective shear will remain modest, but sufficient for isolated organized cells (20-30 kt). The surface low is likely to remain north of the international border, but the cold front should provide some focus for afternoon/evening thunderstorm activity. However, subsidence behind the morning shortwave and possibly some early day showers and cloud cover could hinder thunderstorm development initially. As a result storms may develop a bit further south and east than previously forecast, and the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been removed for parts of the Upper OH Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity. Storms that do develop across the Northeast still may pose a risk for locally strong gusts, and closer to the surface low, a tornado or two. ...Southern MO/OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic... A seasonally very moist airmass will reside to the south of the southward sagging cold front extending from the MO Ozarks into southern IL/IN/OH. A corridor of strong instability is expected ahead of the front, aided by 70s dewpoints and heating into the mid 80s to mid 90s. Vertical shear will be much weaker with southward extent, but any MCVs from prior day's convection coupled with the sagging cold front, should provide focused for scattered thunderstorm development. Thunderstorm clusters will mainly pose a risk for strong gusts from water laden downdrafts. Additional storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain of WV/VA along a surface trough and ahead of the surface cold front. A similar environment to that further east will exist (high CAPE, weak shear). Thunderstorm clusters may produce isolated strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 07/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from parts of the central High Plains to the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic states. ...Upper MS Valley... A large but weakening linear MCS is tracking slowly eastward into western MN/IA. 00z model consensus shows a convectively enhanced upper trough and MCV will emerge from this activity, tracking into parts of WI and northern IL by Wednesday afternoon. Strong heating and ample low-level moisture will be in place over the warm sector of this MCV, but weak mid-level lapse rates will limit CAPE values to around 2000 J/kg. Present indications are that thunderstorms will intensify by mid-afternoon across this region and spread eastward toward Lake Michigan and western Lower MI by evening. The strongest cells will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts. Enhanced vertical shear near the MCV may also result in a tornado or two. ...WY/CO... The belt of primary mid-level westerlies will extend across WY later today, with the southern fringe of stronger flow aloft over northern CO. Ample mid-level moisture will encourage scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the mountains and foothills of CO/southern WY, with storms moving into the adjacent plains by mid-afternoon. Backed low-level winds will result in favorable deep-layer shear for a few organized/supercell storms capable of large hail and damaging winds through the afternoon and early evening. ...NY/PA/WV... Current water vapor loops shows a subtle shortwave trough and weak mid-level jet max over southern IL. This feature will track northeastward up the OH Valley and into parts of OH/WV/PA by Wednesday afternoon. Forcing associated with this feature, combined with a warm/humid air mass will promote multiple clusters of thunderstorms affecting the region. Forecast soundings show rather weak mid-level lapse rates, weak winds in the lowest 4km, and considerable mid-level moisture limiting downdraft potential. Will therefore maintain only MRGL at this time, but acknowledge some risk of scattered wind damage across this region later today. ..Hart/Thornton.. 07/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from parts of the central High Plains to the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic states. ...Upper MS Valley... A large but weakening linear MCS is tracking slowly eastward into western MN/IA. 00z model consensus shows a convectively enhanced upper trough and MCV will emerge from this activity, tracking into parts of WI and northern IL by Wednesday afternoon. Strong heating and ample low-level moisture will be in place over the warm sector of this MCV, but weak mid-level lapse rates will limit CAPE values to around 2000 J/kg. Present indications are that thunderstorms will intensify by mid-afternoon across this region and spread eastward toward Lake Michigan and western Lower MI by evening. The strongest cells will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts. Enhanced vertical shear near the MCV may also result in a tornado or two. ...WY/CO... The belt of primary mid-level westerlies will extend across WY later today, with the southern fringe of stronger flow aloft over northern CO. Ample mid-level moisture will encourage scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the mountains and foothills of CO/southern WY, with storms moving into the adjacent plains by mid-afternoon. Backed low-level winds will result in favorable deep-layer shear for a few organized/supercell storms capable of large hail and damaging winds through the afternoon and early evening. ...NY/PA/WV... Current water vapor loops shows a subtle shortwave trough and weak mid-level jet max over southern IL. This feature will track northeastward up the OH Valley and into parts of OH/WV/PA by Wednesday afternoon. Forcing associated with this feature, combined with a warm/humid air mass will promote multiple clusters of thunderstorms affecting the region. Forecast soundings show rather weak mid-level lapse rates, weak winds in the lowest 4km, and considerable mid-level moisture limiting downdraft potential. Will therefore maintain only MRGL at this time, but acknowledge some risk of scattered wind damage across this region later today. ..Hart/Thornton.. 07/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from parts of the central High Plains to the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic states. ...Upper MS Valley... A large but weakening linear MCS is tracking slowly eastward into western MN/IA. 00z model consensus shows a convectively enhanced upper trough and MCV will emerge from this activity, tracking into parts of WI and northern IL by Wednesday afternoon. Strong heating and ample low-level moisture will be in place over the warm sector of this MCV, but weak mid-level lapse rates will limit CAPE values to around 2000 J/kg. Present indications are that thunderstorms will intensify by mid-afternoon across this region and spread eastward toward Lake Michigan and western Lower MI by evening. The strongest cells will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts. Enhanced vertical shear near the MCV may also result in a tornado or two. ...WY/CO... The belt of primary mid-level westerlies will extend across WY later today, with the southern fringe of stronger flow aloft over northern CO. Ample mid-level moisture will encourage scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the mountains and foothills of CO/southern WY, with storms moving into the adjacent plains by mid-afternoon. Backed low-level winds will result in favorable deep-layer shear for a few organized/supercell storms capable of large hail and damaging winds through the afternoon and early evening. ...NY/PA/WV... Current water vapor loops shows a subtle shortwave trough and weak mid-level jet max over southern IL. This feature will track northeastward up the OH Valley and into parts of OH/WV/PA by Wednesday afternoon. Forcing associated with this feature, combined with a warm/humid air mass will promote multiple clusters of thunderstorms affecting the region. Forecast soundings show rather weak mid-level lapse rates, weak winds in the lowest 4km, and considerable mid-level moisture limiting downdraft potential. Will therefore maintain only MRGL at this time, but acknowledge some risk of scattered wind damage across this region later today. ..Hart/Thornton.. 07/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from parts of the central High Plains to the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic states. ...Upper MS Valley... A large but weakening linear MCS is tracking slowly eastward into western MN/IA. 00z model consensus shows a convectively enhanced upper trough and MCV will emerge from this activity, tracking into parts of WI and northern IL by Wednesday afternoon. Strong heating and ample low-level moisture will be in place over the warm sector of this MCV, but weak mid-level lapse rates will limit CAPE values to around 2000 J/kg. Present indications are that thunderstorms will intensify by mid-afternoon across this region and spread eastward toward Lake Michigan and western Lower MI by evening. The strongest cells will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts. Enhanced vertical shear near the MCV may also result in a tornado or two. ...WY/CO... The belt of primary mid-level westerlies will extend across WY later today, with the southern fringe of stronger flow aloft over northern CO. Ample mid-level moisture will encourage scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the mountains and foothills of CO/southern WY, with storms moving into the adjacent plains by mid-afternoon. Backed low-level winds will result in favorable deep-layer shear for a few organized/supercell storms capable of large hail and damaging winds through the afternoon and early evening. ...NY/PA/WV... Current water vapor loops shows a subtle shortwave trough and weak mid-level jet max over southern IL. This feature will track northeastward up the OH Valley and into parts of OH/WV/PA by Wednesday afternoon. Forcing associated with this feature, combined with a warm/humid air mass will promote multiple clusters of thunderstorms affecting the region. Forecast soundings show rather weak mid-level lapse rates, weak winds in the lowest 4km, and considerable mid-level moisture limiting downdraft potential. Will therefore maintain only MRGL at this time, but acknowledge some risk of scattered wind damage across this region later today. ..Hart/Thornton.. 07/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from parts of the central High Plains to the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic states. ...Upper MS Valley... A large but weakening linear MCS is tracking slowly eastward into western MN/IA. 00z model consensus shows a convectively enhanced upper trough and MCV will emerge from this activity, tracking into parts of WI and northern IL by Wednesday afternoon. Strong heating and ample low-level moisture will be in place over the warm sector of this MCV, but weak mid-level lapse rates will limit CAPE values to around 2000 J/kg. Present indications are that thunderstorms will intensify by mid-afternoon across this region and spread eastward toward Lake Michigan and western Lower MI by evening. The strongest cells will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts. Enhanced vertical shear near the MCV may also result in a tornado or two. ...WY/CO... The belt of primary mid-level westerlies will extend across WY later today, with the southern fringe of stronger flow aloft over northern CO. Ample mid-level moisture will encourage scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the mountains and foothills of CO/southern WY, with storms moving into the adjacent plains by mid-afternoon. Backed low-level winds will result in favorable deep-layer shear for a few organized/supercell storms capable of large hail and damaging winds through the afternoon and early evening. ...NY/PA/WV... Current water vapor loops shows a subtle shortwave trough and weak mid-level jet max over southern IL. This feature will track northeastward up the OH Valley and into parts of OH/WV/PA by Wednesday afternoon. Forcing associated with this feature, combined with a warm/humid air mass will promote multiple clusters of thunderstorms affecting the region. Forecast soundings show rather weak mid-level lapse rates, weak winds in the lowest 4km, and considerable mid-level moisture limiting downdraft potential. Will therefore maintain only MRGL at this time, but acknowledge some risk of scattered wind damage across this region later today. ..Hart/Thornton.. 07/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from parts of the central High Plains to the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic states. ...Upper MS Valley... A large but weakening linear MCS is tracking slowly eastward into western MN/IA. 00z model consensus shows a convectively enhanced upper trough and MCV will emerge from this activity, tracking into parts of WI and northern IL by Wednesday afternoon. Strong heating and ample low-level moisture will be in place over the warm sector of this MCV, but weak mid-level lapse rates will limit CAPE values to around 2000 J/kg. Present indications are that thunderstorms will intensify by mid-afternoon across this region and spread eastward toward Lake Michigan and western Lower MI by evening. The strongest cells will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts. Enhanced vertical shear near the MCV may also result in a tornado or two. ...WY/CO... The belt of primary mid-level westerlies will extend across WY later today, with the southern fringe of stronger flow aloft over northern CO. Ample mid-level moisture will encourage scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the mountains and foothills of CO/southern WY, with storms moving into the adjacent plains by mid-afternoon. Backed low-level winds will result in favorable deep-layer shear for a few organized/supercell storms capable of large hail and damaging winds through the afternoon and early evening. ...NY/PA/WV... Current water vapor loops shows a subtle shortwave trough and weak mid-level jet max over southern IL. This feature will track northeastward up the OH Valley and into parts of OH/WV/PA by Wednesday afternoon. Forcing associated with this feature, combined with a warm/humid air mass will promote multiple clusters of thunderstorms affecting the region. Forecast soundings show rather weak mid-level lapse rates, weak winds in the lowest 4km, and considerable mid-level moisture limiting downdraft potential. Will therefore maintain only MRGL at this time, but acknowledge some risk of scattered wind damage across this region later today. ..Hart/Thornton.. 07/16/2025 Read more