Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Dry and breezy north-northwesterly flow is expected across portions of the Southern High Plains on Saturday. However, temperatures are expected to be cool, and fuels only marginally dry. Therefore, no critical probabilities are warranted. Sunday and beyond, a relatively benign fire weather pattern is expected. A few periods of weak lee troughing and some increase in southerly flow across the High Plains, but nothing appears strong enough to warrant probabilities. Elsewhere, cold conditions or most fuels preclude fire weather concerns. ..Bentley.. 12/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Dry and breezy north-northwesterly flow is expected across portions of the Southern High Plains on Saturday. However, temperatures are expected to be cool, and fuels only marginally dry. Therefore, no critical probabilities are warranted. Sunday and beyond, a relatively benign fire weather pattern is expected. A few periods of weak lee troughing and some increase in southerly flow across the High Plains, but nothing appears strong enough to warrant probabilities. Elsewhere, cold conditions or most fuels preclude fire weather concerns. ..Bentley.. 12/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Dry and breezy north-northwesterly flow is expected across portions of the Southern High Plains on Saturday. However, temperatures are expected to be cool, and fuels only marginally dry. Therefore, no critical probabilities are warranted. Sunday and beyond, a relatively benign fire weather pattern is expected. A few periods of weak lee troughing and some increase in southerly flow across the High Plains, but nothing appears strong enough to warrant probabilities. Elsewhere, cold conditions or most fuels preclude fire weather concerns. ..Bentley.. 12/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Dry and breezy north-northwesterly flow is expected across portions of the Southern High Plains on Saturday. However, temperatures are expected to be cool, and fuels only marginally dry. Therefore, no critical probabilities are warranted. Sunday and beyond, a relatively benign fire weather pattern is expected. A few periods of weak lee troughing and some increase in southerly flow across the High Plains, but nothing appears strong enough to warrant probabilities. Elsewhere, cold conditions or most fuels preclude fire weather concerns. ..Bentley.. 12/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Dry and breezy north-northwesterly flow is expected across portions of the Southern High Plains on Saturday. However, temperatures are expected to be cool, and fuels only marginally dry. Therefore, no critical probabilities are warranted. Sunday and beyond, a relatively benign fire weather pattern is expected. A few periods of weak lee troughing and some increase in southerly flow across the High Plains, but nothing appears strong enough to warrant probabilities. Elsewhere, cold conditions or most fuels preclude fire weather concerns. ..Bentley.. 12/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Dry and breezy north-northwesterly flow is expected across portions of the Southern High Plains on Saturday. However, temperatures are expected to be cool, and fuels only marginally dry. Therefore, no critical probabilities are warranted. Sunday and beyond, a relatively benign fire weather pattern is expected. A few periods of weak lee troughing and some increase in southerly flow across the High Plains, but nothing appears strong enough to warrant probabilities. Elsewhere, cold conditions or most fuels preclude fire weather concerns. ..Bentley.. 12/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 12/07/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1229 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023/ ...Synopsis... A secondary wave of enhanced mid-level flow will move through the western US trough, resulting in deepening of the wave and a deepening surface cyclone progged to move eastward into the Central Plains. Further west, hot and deeply mixed profiles will allow for strong surface west to southwest flow aloft to reach the surface across portions of the southern Texas Panhandle into far west Texas and southern/eastern New Mexico. Fuels within this region are expected to undergo drying on Thursday with poor recovery overnight. ERCs are forecast to be in the 50-75th percentile within the Texas Panhandle. Further south and west, fuels remain seasonally moist. However, dormant fine fuels are expected to dry, which will support potential for fire spread, given the strong winds. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds at 20-25 mph (locally as high as 30 mph). Given that larger fuels are not as receptive to spread, an Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook. Spotty critical meteorological conditions will be possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 12/07/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1229 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023/ ...Synopsis... A secondary wave of enhanced mid-level flow will move through the western US trough, resulting in deepening of the wave and a deepening surface cyclone progged to move eastward into the Central Plains. Further west, hot and deeply mixed profiles will allow for strong surface west to southwest flow aloft to reach the surface across portions of the southern Texas Panhandle into far west Texas and southern/eastern New Mexico. Fuels within this region are expected to undergo drying on Thursday with poor recovery overnight. ERCs are forecast to be in the 50-75th percentile within the Texas Panhandle. Further south and west, fuels remain seasonally moist. However, dormant fine fuels are expected to dry, which will support potential for fire spread, given the strong winds. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds at 20-25 mph (locally as high as 30 mph). Given that larger fuels are not as receptive to spread, an Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook. Spotty critical meteorological conditions will be possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 12/07/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1229 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023/ ...Synopsis... A secondary wave of enhanced mid-level flow will move through the western US trough, resulting in deepening of the wave and a deepening surface cyclone progged to move eastward into the Central Plains. Further west, hot and deeply mixed profiles will allow for strong surface west to southwest flow aloft to reach the surface across portions of the southern Texas Panhandle into far west Texas and southern/eastern New Mexico. Fuels within this region are expected to undergo drying on Thursday with poor recovery overnight. ERCs are forecast to be in the 50-75th percentile within the Texas Panhandle. Further south and west, fuels remain seasonally moist. However, dormant fine fuels are expected to dry, which will support potential for fire spread, given the strong winds. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds at 20-25 mph (locally as high as 30 mph). Given that larger fuels are not as receptive to spread, an Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook. Spotty critical meteorological conditions will be possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 12/07/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1229 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023/ ...Synopsis... A secondary wave of enhanced mid-level flow will move through the western US trough, resulting in deepening of the wave and a deepening surface cyclone progged to move eastward into the Central Plains. Further west, hot and deeply mixed profiles will allow for strong surface west to southwest flow aloft to reach the surface across portions of the southern Texas Panhandle into far west Texas and southern/eastern New Mexico. Fuels within this region are expected to undergo drying on Thursday with poor recovery overnight. ERCs are forecast to be in the 50-75th percentile within the Texas Panhandle. Further south and west, fuels remain seasonally moist. However, dormant fine fuels are expected to dry, which will support potential for fire spread, given the strong winds. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds at 20-25 mph (locally as high as 30 mph). Given that larger fuels are not as receptive to spread, an Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook. Spotty critical meteorological conditions will be possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 12/07/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1229 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023/ ...Synopsis... A secondary wave of enhanced mid-level flow will move through the western US trough, resulting in deepening of the wave and a deepening surface cyclone progged to move eastward into the Central Plains. Further west, hot and deeply mixed profiles will allow for strong surface west to southwest flow aloft to reach the surface across portions of the southern Texas Panhandle into far west Texas and southern/eastern New Mexico. Fuels within this region are expected to undergo drying on Thursday with poor recovery overnight. ERCs are forecast to be in the 50-75th percentile within the Texas Panhandle. Further south and west, fuels remain seasonally moist. However, dormant fine fuels are expected to dry, which will support potential for fire spread, given the strong winds. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds at 20-25 mph (locally as high as 30 mph). Given that larger fuels are not as receptive to spread, an Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook. Spotty critical meteorological conditions will be possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 0111 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern will evolve toward a progressive, high-amplitude western CONUS trough through the period, as associated increasingly cyclonic flow is traversed by a series of shortwaves. Accompanying cold midlevel air (-20 to -34 deg C) 500-mb temperatures will spread eastward/inland across a vast section of the northwestern CONUS through the period, from the northern Great Basin northward, and the central/northern Rockies westward. Mesobeta-scale shots of localized, enhanced large-scale lift, where moving atop pockets of marginally favorable low/middle- level moisture, may prompt transient bursts of shallow cells with very isolated/brief thunder potential, almost anywhere in that swath. However, the most favorable areas for 10% or greater thunderstorm coverage appears to be 1) near-coastal Northwest from northern CA to WA, from portions of the Cascades westward, where the coldest air aloft will overlie the greatest low-level moisture content near its Pacific source, and 2) eastern OR/southwestern ID and vicinity. A strong shortwave trough now nearing the coast has contributed to some lightning offshore and near coastal southwestern OR the last few hours, and that potential should continue and shift inland through the remainder of the morning and afternoon. Another round of potential this evening may accompany a field of ascent preceding a perturbation now well west of Vancouver Island, and progged to dig southeastward toward the northern OR Coast. ..15_ows.. 12/07/2023 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 0111 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern will evolve toward a progressive, high-amplitude western CONUS trough through the period, as associated increasingly cyclonic flow is traversed by a series of shortwaves. Accompanying cold midlevel air (-20 to -34 deg C) 500-mb temperatures will spread eastward/inland across a vast section of the northwestern CONUS through the period, from the northern Great Basin northward, and the central/northern Rockies westward. Mesobeta-scale shots of localized, enhanced large-scale lift, where moving atop pockets of marginally favorable low/middle- level moisture, may prompt transient bursts of shallow cells with very isolated/brief thunder potential, almost anywhere in that swath. However, the most favorable areas for 10% or greater thunderstorm coverage appears to be 1) near-coastal Northwest from northern CA to WA, from portions of the Cascades westward, where the coldest air aloft will overlie the greatest low-level moisture content near its Pacific source, and 2) eastern OR/southwestern ID and vicinity. A strong shortwave trough now nearing the coast has contributed to some lightning offshore and near coastal southwestern OR the last few hours, and that potential should continue and shift inland through the remainder of the morning and afternoon. Another round of potential this evening may accompany a field of ascent preceding a perturbation now well west of Vancouver Island, and progged to dig southeastward toward the northern OR Coast. ..15_ows.. 12/07/2023 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 0111 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern will evolve toward a progressive, high-amplitude western CONUS trough through the period, as associated increasingly cyclonic flow is traversed by a series of shortwaves. Accompanying cold midlevel air (-20 to -34 deg C) 500-mb temperatures will spread eastward/inland across a vast section of the northwestern CONUS through the period, from the northern Great Basin northward, and the central/northern Rockies westward. Mesobeta-scale shots of localized, enhanced large-scale lift, where moving atop pockets of marginally favorable low/middle- level moisture, may prompt transient bursts of shallow cells with very isolated/brief thunder potential, almost anywhere in that swath. However, the most favorable areas for 10% or greater thunderstorm coverage appears to be 1) near-coastal Northwest from northern CA to WA, from portions of the Cascades westward, where the coldest air aloft will overlie the greatest low-level moisture content near its Pacific source, and 2) eastern OR/southwestern ID and vicinity. A strong shortwave trough now nearing the coast has contributed to some lightning offshore and near coastal southwestern OR the last few hours, and that potential should continue and shift inland through the remainder of the morning and afternoon. Another round of potential this evening may accompany a field of ascent preceding a perturbation now well west of Vancouver Island, and progged to dig southeastward toward the northern OR Coast. ..15_ows.. 12/07/2023 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 0111 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern will evolve toward a progressive, high-amplitude western CONUS trough through the period, as associated increasingly cyclonic flow is traversed by a series of shortwaves. Accompanying cold midlevel air (-20 to -34 deg C) 500-mb temperatures will spread eastward/inland across a vast section of the northwestern CONUS through the period, from the northern Great Basin northward, and the central/northern Rockies westward. Mesobeta-scale shots of localized, enhanced large-scale lift, where moving atop pockets of marginally favorable low/middle- level moisture, may prompt transient bursts of shallow cells with very isolated/brief thunder potential, almost anywhere in that swath. However, the most favorable areas for 10% or greater thunderstorm coverage appears to be 1) near-coastal Northwest from northern CA to WA, from portions of the Cascades westward, where the coldest air aloft will overlie the greatest low-level moisture content near its Pacific source, and 2) eastern OR/southwestern ID and vicinity. A strong shortwave trough now nearing the coast has contributed to some lightning offshore and near coastal southwestern OR the last few hours, and that potential should continue and shift inland through the remainder of the morning and afternoon. Another round of potential this evening may accompany a field of ascent preceding a perturbation now well west of Vancouver Island, and progged to dig southeastward toward the northern OR Coast. ..15_ows.. 12/07/2023 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 0111 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern will evolve toward a progressive, high-amplitude western CONUS trough through the period, as associated increasingly cyclonic flow is traversed by a series of shortwaves. Accompanying cold midlevel air (-20 to -34 deg C) 500-mb temperatures will spread eastward/inland across a vast section of the northwestern CONUS through the period, from the northern Great Basin northward, and the central/northern Rockies westward. Mesobeta-scale shots of localized, enhanced large-scale lift, where moving atop pockets of marginally favorable low/middle- level moisture, may prompt transient bursts of shallow cells with very isolated/brief thunder potential, almost anywhere in that swath. However, the most favorable areas for 10% or greater thunderstorm coverage appears to be 1) near-coastal Northwest from northern CA to WA, from portions of the Cascades westward, where the coldest air aloft will overlie the greatest low-level moisture content near its Pacific source, and 2) eastern OR/southwestern ID and vicinity. A strong shortwave trough now nearing the coast has contributed to some lightning offshore and near coastal southwestern OR the last few hours, and that potential should continue and shift inland through the remainder of the morning and afternoon. Another round of potential this evening may accompany a field of ascent preceding a perturbation now well west of Vancouver Island, and progged to dig southeastward toward the northern OR Coast. ..15_ows.. 12/07/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1110 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST TX TO AR AND SOUTHERN MO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail will be possible late night Friday from northeast Texas and southeast Oklahoma through central Arkansas and southwest Missouri. ...Synopsis... Guidance has clearly trended over the past 36 hours to multiple distinct shortwave impulses ejecting within the broad upper trough over the western and central states. The lead impulse in the Four Corners area at 12Z Friday will amplify across the central Great Plains towards the Mid-MS Valley. Meanwhile, a secondary impulse and attendant speed max will hold back within the basal portion of the broad trough over the Four Corners. The net result will be more prominent surface cyclogenesis occurring ahead of the lead wave, mainly on Friday night across the Lower MO Valley towards southern Lake MI. A surface cold front will sweep more rapidly east in vicinity of the cyclone track, and slow its southeast push across the southeast OK/Ark-La-Tex area late in the period. ...Northeast TX to AR/Southern MO... The aforementioned synoptic trends suggest that forcing for ascent appears to be limited across the modifying warm sector from east TX towards the Ozarks on Friday night. Timing of the wave ejections indicate near-neutral mid-level height change is anticipated overnight in this region. With substantial modification necessary of the continental polar air mass that is across the northwest Gulf coast, more than meager surface-based instability will likely struggle to advect north to/beyond the Ozarks. Within a southwesterly low to mid-level flow regime, moderate MLCIN and low RH above the capping inversion suggest that warm-sector thunderstorm initiation ahead of the cold front is unlikely through 12Z Saturday. Low-level warm theta-e advection could still be adequate for isolated slightly elevated thunderstorms centered on the southeast OK/Ark-La-Tex region deeper into AR overnight, with a primary threat of localized severe hail. ..15_ows.. 12/07/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1110 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST TX TO AR AND SOUTHERN MO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail will be possible late night Friday from northeast Texas and southeast Oklahoma through central Arkansas and southwest Missouri. ...Synopsis... Guidance has clearly trended over the past 36 hours to multiple distinct shortwave impulses ejecting within the broad upper trough over the western and central states. The lead impulse in the Four Corners area at 12Z Friday will amplify across the central Great Plains towards the Mid-MS Valley. Meanwhile, a secondary impulse and attendant speed max will hold back within the basal portion of the broad trough over the Four Corners. The net result will be more prominent surface cyclogenesis occurring ahead of the lead wave, mainly on Friday night across the Lower MO Valley towards southern Lake MI. A surface cold front will sweep more rapidly east in vicinity of the cyclone track, and slow its southeast push across the southeast OK/Ark-La-Tex area late in the period. ...Northeast TX to AR/Southern MO... The aforementioned synoptic trends suggest that forcing for ascent appears to be limited across the modifying warm sector from east TX towards the Ozarks on Friday night. Timing of the wave ejections indicate near-neutral mid-level height change is anticipated overnight in this region. With substantial modification necessary of the continental polar air mass that is across the northwest Gulf coast, more than meager surface-based instability will likely struggle to advect north to/beyond the Ozarks. Within a southwesterly low to mid-level flow regime, moderate MLCIN and low RH above the capping inversion suggest that warm-sector thunderstorm initiation ahead of the cold front is unlikely through 12Z Saturday. Low-level warm theta-e advection could still be adequate for isolated slightly elevated thunderstorms centered on the southeast OK/Ark-La-Tex region deeper into AR overnight, with a primary threat of localized severe hail. ..15_ows.. 12/07/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1110 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST TX TO AR AND SOUTHERN MO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail will be possible late night Friday from northeast Texas and southeast Oklahoma through central Arkansas and southwest Missouri. ...Synopsis... Guidance has clearly trended over the past 36 hours to multiple distinct shortwave impulses ejecting within the broad upper trough over the western and central states. The lead impulse in the Four Corners area at 12Z Friday will amplify across the central Great Plains towards the Mid-MS Valley. Meanwhile, a secondary impulse and attendant speed max will hold back within the basal portion of the broad trough over the Four Corners. The net result will be more prominent surface cyclogenesis occurring ahead of the lead wave, mainly on Friday night across the Lower MO Valley towards southern Lake MI. A surface cold front will sweep more rapidly east in vicinity of the cyclone track, and slow its southeast push across the southeast OK/Ark-La-Tex area late in the period. ...Northeast TX to AR/Southern MO... The aforementioned synoptic trends suggest that forcing for ascent appears to be limited across the modifying warm sector from east TX towards the Ozarks on Friday night. Timing of the wave ejections indicate near-neutral mid-level height change is anticipated overnight in this region. With substantial modification necessary of the continental polar air mass that is across the northwest Gulf coast, more than meager surface-based instability will likely struggle to advect north to/beyond the Ozarks. Within a southwesterly low to mid-level flow regime, moderate MLCIN and low RH above the capping inversion suggest that warm-sector thunderstorm initiation ahead of the cold front is unlikely through 12Z Saturday. Low-level warm theta-e advection could still be adequate for isolated slightly elevated thunderstorms centered on the southeast OK/Ark-La-Tex region deeper into AR overnight, with a primary threat of localized severe hail. ..15_ows.. 12/07/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1110 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST TX TO AR AND SOUTHERN MO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail will be possible late night Friday from northeast Texas and southeast Oklahoma through central Arkansas and southwest Missouri. ...Synopsis... Guidance has clearly trended over the past 36 hours to multiple distinct shortwave impulses ejecting within the broad upper trough over the western and central states. The lead impulse in the Four Corners area at 12Z Friday will amplify across the central Great Plains towards the Mid-MS Valley. Meanwhile, a secondary impulse and attendant speed max will hold back within the basal portion of the broad trough over the Four Corners. The net result will be more prominent surface cyclogenesis occurring ahead of the lead wave, mainly on Friday night across the Lower MO Valley towards southern Lake MI. A surface cold front will sweep more rapidly east in vicinity of the cyclone track, and slow its southeast push across the southeast OK/Ark-La-Tex area late in the period. ...Northeast TX to AR/Southern MO... The aforementioned synoptic trends suggest that forcing for ascent appears to be limited across the modifying warm sector from east TX towards the Ozarks on Friday night. Timing of the wave ejections indicate near-neutral mid-level height change is anticipated overnight in this region. With substantial modification necessary of the continental polar air mass that is across the northwest Gulf coast, more than meager surface-based instability will likely struggle to advect north to/beyond the Ozarks. Within a southwesterly low to mid-level flow regime, moderate MLCIN and low RH above the capping inversion suggest that warm-sector thunderstorm initiation ahead of the cold front is unlikely through 12Z Saturday. Low-level warm theta-e advection could still be adequate for isolated slightly elevated thunderstorms centered on the southeast OK/Ark-La-Tex region deeper into AR overnight, with a primary threat of localized severe hail. ..15_ows.. 12/07/2023 Read more